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The article focuses on positive and negative aspects of corporate mergers and how to plan for them. The article states three major influences that result in the increase in corporate mergers: industrial complementarity, common thread, and differential price-earnings ratios. It mentions that the most important thing needed for a merger to succeed is a systematic and comprehensive preplan. It comments that another important aspect is an effective long-range plan which provides for diversification planning. It states that the company also needs to be honest about its own strengths and weaknesses.

One acting in the capacity of a manager or an executive must make choices among various plans, policies, and strategies. Among other conditions, decisions must be made under varying degrees of information--customarily classified as conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Decision theory attempts to give structure and rationale to the different conditions under which decisions are made. A great many problems or gaps still exist in the theory. This article provides a review of some of the essential elements of management decision theory and a commentary on some of the problem areas where continuing attention might profitably be focussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the precautionary demand for money. It states that if large economic units follow optimal cash management policies, the effect of uncertainty will result in less demand for money than without uncertainty. It examines a mathematical model to determine the cost of uncertainty and its effect on payment rates, and a second model to compare an optimal policy under certainty and under uncertainty. It suggests that uncertainty can result in a company "overinvesting" in short term securities, resulting in a consequent lowering of the average deposit.

The article focuses on the use of risk-adjusted discount rates and the relationship between the effects that risk and time have on present value. It presents mathematical models to prove the relationship of time and risk with present value and examines the certainty equivalent and riskless rate of interest to help create a formula for the present value of the uncertain stream. It states that the rate at which expected income is realized over time is dependent on how long it is expected to take uncertainty to be resolved, and mentions that if uncertainty is expected to be resolved at a constant rate over time, the required rate of return will accurately predict the rate income is expected to be realized.

The article discusses partisan decision-making under the condition of risk. This condition exists when individuals or groups must decide among alternatives of which they know the probability of a number of different outcomes. Decision-making has two other classifications. Under the condition of certainty each decision is known to lead to a specific reward. When decisions are made under the condition of uncertainty the probabilities of the outcomes are not known to the player. Thus the certainty-risk-uncertainty classification of decision-making refers to the assignment of probabilities to various outcomes of a decision and whether these probabilities are known to the players. Though the above classification of decisions is useful for utility theory, much of the social science literature makes more restrictive assumptions about the conditions of decision making than are necessary. Technically game theory deals with decisions of uncertainty, but the uncertainty in most social science applications is reduced through the assumption that each player knows the desires of the other player and the assumption that they will each take whatever actions appear to gain their ends.

This paper describes a three and a half year study conducted over the course of the Apollo lunar missions with forty -two of me most prestigious scientists who studied the lunar rocks. The paper supports the Merton-E. Barber concept of sociological ambivalence, that social institutions reflect potentially conflicting sets of norms. The paper offers a set of counter-norms for science, arguing that if the norm of universalism is rooted in the impersonal character of science, an opposing counter-norm is rooted in the personal character of science. The paper also argues that not only is sociological ambivalence a characteristic of science, but it seems necessary for the existence and ultimate rationality of science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data concerning certainty of arrest and crime are analyzed for cities and counties in the state of Florida. The results support a deterrent argument but suggest that certainty of punishment must reach a critical level before an effect on crime rate can be observed. It is argued that contemporary theories of deviance would profit from inclusion of deterrence ideas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article cites a case of outpatient treatment of a seriously disturbed child in a child guidance center. An attempt to evolve a suitable treatment plan for a child like the one studied in the article raises questions that cannot be answered with certainty. Despite current theories about the preference for residential treatment for the severely disturbed child, the diagnostic team at the Center proposed a plan for out patient therapy. This was done with full knowledge that such a plan would require more treatment hours over a longer period of time than is accorded the average treatment case.

The article determines whether a characteristic of certainty or confidence can be assessed by means of the Thematic Apperception Test. Ninety subjects were asked to indicate their degree of certainty, on a five point scale, for their predictions of uncertain occurrences. More specifically, the subjects predicted, in response to various light combinations, whether a buzzer would follow. There was no basis for predictions of high certainty, inasmuch as the buzzer followed each light combination on fifty percent of the trials in random order. The ten subjects who gave the highest certainty ratings and the ten subjects who gave the lowest certainty ratings were administered the Thematic Apperception Test. Stories were analyzed by means of a Murray need analysis and were also analyzed for language usage and for desirability of outcomes of stories.

Provides information on the concept of indubitable belief of philosopher Charles S. Peirce. Overview of the doctrine of Critical Common Sensism; Logical limits to the notion of doubt; Stages in the development of common sensism.

A field experiment was conducted to test hypotheses derived from a theory concerning interest in information about the relative merits of alternative actions. After college men stated a position on an issue, they indicated their interest in reading articles favoring each side of the issue and also rated how certain they were their position was best. Some were told their position would be publicized, others that it would be kept completely private. In accordance with the hypotheses, when they were publicly committed to a position, the less certain they were it was the best position the more they preferred information supporting the position; when they were not committed, the more certain they were the more they preferred supporting information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the connection between the acquiescence response set and the Psychasthenia (Pt) scale in the courtroom testimony of witnesses. Respondents are 230 students in an introductory course at Teachers College, Columbia University, who participated in a drama designed to ferret out individual differences in truthfulness of testimony. The results show that scores on the Pt scale are linked to the capability to show verbal awareness. Further, while the high scorer on Pt scale demonstrated acquiescence, he did not get his high Pt score due to it.

The article provides information on two studies which investigated the consistency of individual differences in strength of desire for certainty, and to see if this desire could be situationally increased or decreased by experimental procedures. In the first study, the correlation was determined between subjects' extremity of response to several attitude and judgment instruments and their scores on a test of desire for certainty. The second study compared two groups on strength of desire for certainty, using the same test as the first study, following the exposure of one group to a series of difficult Gottschaldt hidden figures, and the other to an easy group.

This study first models and describes in psychoanalytic terms the development of the personality as it influences particular preferences in behavior. Then, it describes differences in work tasks and job settings, using the certainty and predictability of tasks as the differentiating dimension. En a set of hypotheses, it next links differences in behavioral preferences stemming from early personality development with differences in the routineness and certainty of work tasks. Finally, building on recent `contingency theory', the authors present data to support the idea that differences in personality development can be matched in a consistent and predictable manner with choices among tasks which have different degrees of certainty. The study supports thinking about the interdependence of early personality development and subsequent work choices, suggesting that individuals select tasks where the required behavior is suited to basic tendencies emerging from the psychosexual process of personality formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a study which assessed predictions about coalition formation derived from the Coalition Expected Utility Theory (CEU) as compared with prediction derived from Caplow's theory. Organizational coalitions are formed either under conditions of certainty or uncertainty with regard to their success. In coalition formation under the condition of certainty, the probability of coalition success is known A priori to be either zero or one and any coalition is either a sure winner or a sure loser. In coalition formation under the coalition of uncertainty, the probability of coalition success is between zero and one and any coalition could either succeed or fail. This distinction between the conditions of certainty and uncertainty of success make it possible to propose a CEU theory to predict, not only the coalitions that are most likely to be formed, but also the coalitions that are least likely to be formed, thereby completely specifying the rank order of likelihood of coalition formation in triads. Based from the results of the first experiment, the CEU theory predicted that coalitions were formed with the highest frequencies in all four triads and Caplow's predicted coalitions were formed with lower frequencies. Coalitions with the lowest expected utility were the least frequent coalitions, which in turn shows that the likelihood of preferred coalitions is the same as that predicted by the CEU theory. In the second experiment, the CEU theory predicted that coalitions were formed with the highest frequencies in all four triads while Caplow's predictions in the two trial cases which differed from the CEU predictions were not supported. The results in both experiments provide a direct test of the other three theories of coalition formation discussed previously; The Minimum Resources Theory, the Anti-Competitive Theory and the Game Theory. It is evident that none of these theories is supported in coalition formation under uncertainty.

The article presents the study which investigates the effects of expert judgments to the confidence of the people. This study has investigated three variables dealing with the different aspects of expert judgments such as the degree of certainty about the judgment, type of expert, and the degree to which the judgment is pleasant. Significant interaction between the degree of certainty and the pleasantness of the information were assessed as well as interaction between the type of judgment and expert's certainty for unpleasant judgments.

Presents the views of Jerome Frank on the judicial system in the U.S. Quest for certainty in the judicial system; Creation of psychological hypothesis of the legal system; Role of the upper-courts in the judicial system.

The article presents a discussion about research and teaching and methodology in social science. The author notes that Professor John Dewey's general theory of intelligence is that consciousness is conditioned by conflict. He comments on the character of Professor John Dewey's notion of the situation and points out the importance of this phase of his doctrine, initially with regards to the social sciences. It offers passages from Dewey's book "The Quest for Certainty," which calls attention to the identification of experimental inquiry with directed activity in an empirical situation.

The article focuses on the correlates of conformity responses. The relationships between several other behavioral characteristics of the Ss and conformity behavior in this same type of laboratory situation. Three specific hypotheses are to be investigated. There were thus five variables in this study, four independent variables and the dependent variable of conformity behavior. The four independent variables were certainty score, agreement score, recall score and sex. There are no apparent relationships found between agreement with group choice, or uncertainty of judgment, as a personality attribute, and conformity. The relatively high and positive correlation noted between agreement score and certainty of judgment suggests several possible conclusions. Choices which are consistent for the group may be stimulus determined, and therefore Ss who chose these are more likely to be certain of their choice, because of the stimulus elements. Conformity not only refers to agreeing, but involves some personality attributes as well.

This study was an attempt to demonstrate that it is uncertainty of judgment, a response attribute, which is the variable in conformity behavior rather than stimulus ambiguity, a stimulus attribute. Ten ambiguous designs were presented in booklet form to 155 Ss in two group administrations. The Ss designated which of the two alternatives each design looked like and indicated the certainty of this judgment on a four- point scale. Arbitrary norms were then entered into S's booklet, five agreed with' S's original choke and five disagreed. At a second administration, Ss were told the arbitrary norms represented the other students' choices. The Ss were to designate their choice again. The results show that certainty of judgment was a variable in conformity behavior, that stimulus ambiguity was also a variable and that there is considerable independent variance between certainty of judgment and stimulus ambiguity in the range tested. The amount of disagreement from norm was also found to be a variable of conformity behavior. Implications of these findings were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research can be defined as a process of translation, or reproduction in which a communicable model or representation of the subject of research is the goal. In applied research, the goal is to formulate a statement which represents the operations necessary to bring about some desired result. What makes such research different from engineering design is the degree of certainty and completeness with which the model can be formulated at the beginning of the project. The means of achieving the desired result are represented in a network of hypotheses of greater or less probability. Some steps can be specified with near certainty, but others remain vague and uncertain until more information about the physical processes involved can be acquired. When the model attains certainty, and all operations can be specified, the project is completed. The uncertainties are reduced by formulating and testing hypotheses. This process can be described as a cycle of four phases: predicting in the model that a certain operation will produce a desired result; performing the operation; comparing the observed result with the prediction; working out the implications of the finding for the model, and hence for the next step in research. This cycle makes research a self-corrective activity. Despite its tentative nature, the model provides the research worker with criteria by which he can evaluate his progress at every step. Incorrect predictions are revealed, and dictate changes in the model.

In a recent article in this JOURNAL, R. WILSON developed duality relations and certainty equivalent formulas for a linear programming problem with normally distributed random demands. The purpose of the present letter is to establish such relations and formulas for quite general continuous probability distributions. In addition, our analysis reveals more clearly the role of the means and variances as they affect the certainty equivalents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimal composition of cattle feed, which can be formulated as a linear programming problem in the case of certainty, is considered when compositions of inputs vary. In the corresponding linear programming formulation the coefficients of the constraints are not constant but can be considered as stochastic. Reformulating the constraints as chance constraints, a nonlinear programming problem results. For an illustrative example this problem is solved using one of Zoutendijk's methods of feasible directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The von Neumann-Morgenstern theory yields a determinate solution (a unique payoff vector) only for the two-person zero-sum game and some other special cases. But if we adopt a small number of additional rationality postulates we obtain determinate solutions for all known classes of games. The rationality postulates needed include the expected-utility maximization postulate; postulates involving payoff-dominance concepts; and postulates imposing certain consistency requirements on the expectations that rational players can entertain about each other's strategies. For some games the solution can be defined essentially in terms of payoff-dominance concepts. But more generally the solutions depend on the analysis of bargaining among the players. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A family of inventory models in which demand is allowed to change with time is studied. One general model is presented which includes every member of the "family" as a special case. The general model assumes that demand is a random variable. The mean rate of demand may vary over time but demands in different time periods are assumed independent. It is assumed that there is a date of obsolescence for the item with no demands occurring after this date. The time of obsolescence may be either known or alternatively a finite number of obsolescence dates and their probable occurrence may be specified. Procurement lead times are allowed to be random variables, subject to certain restrictions which are discussed. Procurements are allowed only at a finite number of predetermined times which may be specified in any way desired. Demands occurring when the system is out of stock are assumed to be backordered. The procurement quantities are determined by solving a dynamic programming problem which minimizes the sum of the expected costs of procurement, carrying inventory, stockouts, and losses from obsolescence. The dynamic programming problem is within the range of feasibility computationally, because only tables involving a single parameter are required. A number of special cases of the general model are studied and it is shown that most dynamic models which have appeared in the literature are special cases of the general model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cognitive complexity is a construct which is intended to reflect the relative differentiation of a person's system of dimensions for construing the behavior of others. It is assumed that a more cognitively complex person has available a more differentiated system of dimensions for perceiving the behavior of others than does a less cognitively complex individual. It may be noted that previous research has suggested that there may be systematic differences between high and low complex Ss in the processing of conflicting or contradictory information about other persons. Researchers have cited evidence which suggests that high complex judges are less certain in their judgments of consistent information about others, but they are more certain than low complex judges in making judgments of others on the basis of conflicting or contradictory stimulus information. Conceptualization of these influences of the cognitive system of the judge upon his reactions to informational input may be facilitated if a common mode of analysis is applied to both organismic and stimulus variables.

The article focuses on a study related to self-concept and dissonance reduction. Evidence from various sources suggests that threat induction and reduction generate disliking and liking, respectively, for the instrumental agent, object, or situation. Hypotheses were derived from self and cognitive dissonance theories concerning the effect of self-ideal discrepancy (SI) and certainty of a cognition on the reactions to confirming and contrary opinions. Specifically, it was predicted that the support of a relatively uncertain opinion results in greater liking for the source than when support is offered under conditions of relative certainty, and the contradiction of a relatively uncertain opinion results in greater derogation of the source than when contradiction is offered under conditions of relative certainty, the effect of a contrary opinion results in greater derogation of the source in low SI Ss than in the other two groups, and agreement and disagreement with an opinion have greater effects on the certainty of one's opinion for Ss in the high SI group than for those in the other two groups.

The article focuses on the need to predict and control under conditions of threat. This experiment investigated the effects of varying degrees of certainty and control under conditions of threat. Thirty Ss gave their preferences for and anxiety ratings of a number of situations. The situations differed according to whether or not S was in control of the application of a shock and whether he could predict the shock or could not, the latter being due either to a lack of information or to inconsistent information. S-control of the application of the shock was found to be less anxiety arousing than and preferable to E-control. The results for the beginning of the experiment and for the experiment as a whole supported the hypothesis that predictability of a threatening stimulus is preferable to and less anxiety arousing than unpredictability. This is true even when predictability does not result in escape, avoidance, or termination of the situation. With predictability, conflict is reduced, psychological and physical preparations are at an optimum, and surprise is avoided.

The article focuses on the need and method of overcoming difficulties during determination of patent life in the United States. According to the article a variable patent life policy should be introduced which may yield different patent lives for different inventions. A patent system which considers the alternatives of additional incentive versus the social cost of monopoly could be one in which patent life is determined so as to insure that the inventor recovers all of his costs plus a fair return on his investment. The key to the estimation of the patent life is the specification of a necessary rate of return. If a firm is earning a competitive rate of r per cent on its investments, then it must also earn a rate of at least r on any research and development undertaking. If the firm cannot earn this return of r, then it will be discouraged from pursuing its interests in the research and development field. A key factor which affects the determination of patent life is the percentage of the total cost, that research and development costs comprise. The value to society of the invention is determined by the conditions under which the new product or process is marketed and the maximum social benefit occurring under perfect competition.

This article presents information related to levying of taxes. For long centuries taxes levied upon wealth, much or little, have been coupled for certainty with death. It is not out of place to remind readers of the journal that the candidates for the United States presidency in the campaign did not put before the electors the gravity of the financial position of the country. The strong expression in the title of this article may appear to some readers to go beyond the limit of good parliamentary expression. Such an idea might occur to a good many people today, for who can say that the voters of the past two generations have shown that they are at all tax-minded. However they have heard taxes described in terms quite as strong by shrewd business men, not necessarily wealthy, who have made a study of what used to be called financial reform. The history of taxation upon wealth is undoubtedly one of the most interesting of all the questions of a government and there are instances in the early records of England that reveal clearly that the incidence of taxation was a matter that concerned the people directly.

This article focuses on social problems as problems of decision. A basic decision is implicit in the very concept of social problems. The idea of a social problem does not arise until people feel that something should be done about human ills. The first question, then, about any specific situation is whether or not it is a social problem at all or it is a problem of decision, whether we should or should not try to do something about this condition. The question of procedures to use in inducing or creating change in the individual or the social situation is then raised. Social problems stated in the "which," or decision, form deal with the actual alternatives among which the decision maker must choose. Decisions may also be classified according to the conditions under which they are made, i.e., certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Decisions, finally, may be classified, according to the number of persons involved, as individual and group situations. It will be seen that the major components of a decision situation are: subjective value, satisfaction, utility; and probability.

The article presents research which examined certainty obtained under conditions where there are individual differences in reactions to stimulus and associated differences in certainty of judgment. The methodology used in the study involved the use of phenylthiourea (PTU). The subjects were asked by the authors to taste the substance. The authors observed that the effects of majority opinion were markedly different depending upon whether the minority people were considered tasters or non-tasters of PTU. The findings suggest that this asymmetric effect, whereby nontasters are more susceptible to majority influence, may be caused by the greater certainty tasters have about their judgments of the substance.

In the making of decisions where the valuation problem poses the major difficulty an individual may choose to replace a hard-to-evaluate certain prospect with a much easier to evaluate set of uncertain prospects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article relates the views of the author regarding his ambivalence to certain issues and policies in education in the U.S. The author recognizes the importance of developing ways in meeting the emotional needs of children, emphasizing the thinking processes in education, developing group activities which are challenging in teacher preparation, but he believes it would be more effective as an in-service program. He hesitates about extending the length of time for preparing teachers but also thinks that prospective teachers must have more time for teacher preparation in college.

The article relates the instances wherein educators are having ambivalence. The author has conflicting views on how to grade the writing of the student objectively and how one knows what a given student should study. According to the author, instead of looking at the ambivalence as a weakness, the teacher must recognize it as the basis of valid questioning.

The article highlights the significance of searching for truth in education. According to the author, teaching is searching for truth, whom modern teachers should pay premium upon a child's finding the essence of the lesson or experiment in class. If an individual is right, no search light can make him wrong, but if wrong, the sooner he sets right the safer he will be.

This article presents information related to science, the scientist and the public. Characteristic of sciences is that it embraces the highly abstract, the utterly concrete and actual, and all intermediate gradations. It is what makes the genuine scientist both of this world and superior to it, for be is creating it as he explores it. He knows, moreover, that it is not, like an art at its highest level, creation once and for all, but of the issue of eternal change. He is not, therefore, nor can he be, the dogmatist he is often reputed by those who know science only as defining limited areas of certainty. He is on the contrary a cooperator, sharing and building the infinite or practically infinite-in the infinite task of making it knowable. His genius is called upon first to formulate such questions as are relevant, fruitful and ultimately answerable---or with finality unanswerable. Reason figures out proofs, inductive, deductive, or it may be both. This is not to suggest that any one faculty method excludes others, rather that all are essential to the scientist from eminently cultivated and practiced senses to highly trained intellect and magnanimous spirit.

The article relates the views of the author regarding his ambivalence as a member of the education institution. The author has some contemplation on the meaning and role of expertise in education. The author asked what credentials will give some assurance that a critic of means in education knows what he is talking about. In addition, the author believes that a background of training and experience is not a guarantee of expertness in educational criticism. He also questions whether the innovations in education are usually introduced and promoted by the expert.

The article focuses on the interplay between quantity and quality of work done by teachers and students in classrooms in the U.S. Teachers who are not accurate themselves often accomplish much work, however, its quality may be questioned. The same goes in measurements made by children, according to education experts children should also be accurate in measuring his work so that he can appreciate its value. Carelessness in simple measurements produce habits of uncertainty or indefiniteness in all observations, and ultimately poor quality of work.