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The article discusses the work of the National Bureau of Economic Research in 1953. Seven reports were published by the National Bureau in 1953. The preparation of a number of others was effectively advanced during the period, and work on several new projects was started. New research in the field of international economic relations developed further in 1953. A project was begun that would develop index numbers of prices and quantities for the exports and imports of the United States, by commodity groups, beginning in 1869. Another project that involved construction of estimates of the Canadian balance of payments back to 1868 was completed. Plans were completed for a project on the structure of world trade and payments, and operations were begun with the aid of a special grant of funds. Plans for a study to determine the trends in the output of the Russian economy were drawn up and a special grant of funds was obtained to conduct it. A study of wages and productivity in the United States was planned in 1953 which would deal with money and real wages from 1860 to 1952 and with productivity from 1899 to 1952.

This paper attempts to show that the method for distributing SDRs adopted through the Rio Agreements was designed not to lead to the redistribution of income and wealth among nations either on the occasion of the initial allocations or through the use of the SDRs in the financing of temporary deficits. This objective may not be attained because IMF quotas fail to reflect nations' long-run average demand for reserves or because the quantity of reserves in existence fails to establish an average equality of interest plus liquidity yield on SDRs to the marginal productivity of real resources. If the Rio Agreements are deficient in these respects, relatively simple technical adjustments in the operation of the scheme are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a discussion on economic effects of lend-lease and the stabilization of the international economy. The author appreciates economist Harry D. White's vigorous contention that new international financial machinery in the form of an international bank and an international stabilization fund should be established on behalf of all the United Nations. Economist Eugene Staley recommended the establishment of a new international organization, which would administer the distribution of lend-lease supplies, and here again all the United Nations were to have a voice in its direction. Turning specifically to papers on the economic effects of lend-lease, there are two points, which the author likes to raise. The first point concerns the matter of equality of sacrifice. It is suggested that when approaching the problem of equality of national sacrifice, one should be guided by the principle of proportional taxation-and not progressive taxation. The second point, which the author wishes to raise in regard to the lend-lease papers, concerns the effect of lend-lease operations on the current channels of trade.

The sixth annual Cambridge Conference met to discuss ‘How to Make Aid More Effective through Co-operation’, with Dr R. E. Robinson again in the chair. Six donor and 34 recipient countries were represented by some 150 participants; background papers were presented by Chief Adebo, Professor Hollis Chenery, Professor Willard Thorp, Professor H. V. Wiseman, Dr J. A. Adler, DrT. Balogh, Dr I. G. Patel, Dr C. Quintana, J. Audibert, David Owen, S. S. Khera, Rashid Ibrahim, J. H. Mensah, Tun Razak, and Roger Swynnerton. Among other conference members were Professor G. M. Meier, Professor Lopes Rodrigues, Professor David Joslin, Professor E. A. Mauck, Dr Hans Singer, Dr Hassan Saab, Dr E. F. Schumacher, Dr S. Lourie, Dr T. Soper, Lady Ursula Hicks, and John Miller. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article focuses on a grant of $20,350 that has been received from the National Science Foundation. The grant provides for the support of a Scientific Translations Center at The John Crerar Library in Chicago. The Center will be under the direction of John P. Binnington, Librarian of Brookhaven National Laboratory. This Center will act as a depository for translations contributed or loaned by Government agencies, scientific societies, industrial laboratories, universities, and similar organizations.

The article presents a list of books and papers about economic development and aid. The books and papers include "Development Planning," by Albert Waterston, C.J. Martin, August T. Schumacher and Fritz A. Steuber, "Unsolved Problems of International Development," published in "International Development," "Patterns of Economic Growth," "Developing Countries," published in "Realites," "What Do We Know About Planning," published in "International Development Review," and "Development Finance: Planning and Control," by Ursula K. Hicks.

The article discusses the work of Hans Heymann, John H. Kaufmann and Wilfred Owen on transportation and economic development in the U.S. Heymann's paper is concerned with the necessity of air transport, and therefore refers only to the prestige allure of an international service. This is political economy through the looking glass. Instead of the classical end of greatest wealth and the classical means of, this is what one does, it should start with, this is what one does and end with greatest wealth subject to this constraint. The most obvious is a tendency to reduce the importance of international specialization. This may be wise, in the sense that the area previously specialized in some product which is due to become a drug on the international market. It may be unwise, in the sense that the country has overwhelming comparative advantages and disadvantages. The tendency to reduce international specialization may be the occasion for a growth, or an accelerated growth, in real income-due to the application of a dynamic policy in an area which is customarily viewed by economists as a problem in comparative statics, or it may impede or even reverse economic growth.

The article presents information about bibliographies, periodicals giving news items and special reports in regard to the readjustment and reconstruction of the economic life of the countries of Europe. Some of the bibliographies are, "Reconstruction: A Preliminary Bibliography," compiled by Laura A. Thompson, "List of References on Reconstruction," prepared by Mrs. V. B. Turner, and is to be found in the December, 1918, issue of the journal "Monthly Labor Review." The Library of Congress published in November, 1918, "A List of British Parliamentary Publications on Reconstruction, With Some Other Publications." The Council of National Defense has prepared a "Bibliography on Reconstruction: British Parliamentary Papers and Selected Publications on Reconstruction." A very useful summary of news is contained in the "Daily Digest of Reconstruction News", published by the Director's Office of the Council of National Defense, Washington. It gives important facts about the work of the departments of the federal government in the field of reconstruction, actions of the state and municipal governments, and of foreign governments.

The article focuses on the problem of optimum rate of investment. The traditional approach makes use of the utility discount by which future consumption is made comparable with present consumption and the solution is derived in terms of finite values. The utility discount may be concerned either with rational discounting or with the former plus irrational discounting. In the research paper presented by the author in the year 1958, the optimum rate of investment was determined by zero social marginal efficiency of investment (mei). It is frequently implied that consumption is not only low, but is remaining stagnant or is declining so as to enable investment to grow. This belief is derived from the observation that even in periods of unusually high investment rates the returns to individual investing firms were still positive and quite large. It has been understood that the limited absorptive capacity of the economy drives social mei very soon to zero. It is a fact that the uncertainty of the outcomes of investment decisions increases with the length of the planning horizon. The long-term programmes of development worked out so far rarely go beyond the horizon of twenty years, and practically never beyond twenty-five years.

Presents a paper on protecting homebuilding from restrictive credit conditions. Description of the housing industry and its heavy use of credit; Government involvement in housing might included government aid to the mortgage market; Housing production and the gross national product; The interest sensitivity of housing and homebuilding; Principles of an efficient monetary policy as it involves homebuilding; Fluctuations in homebuilding; Policy implications for protecting housing from high credit markets; Need to shift the adjustment burden.

This article presents a discussion of the research paper "Agricultural Surpluses and Foreign Aid," in the U.S., by John H. Davis, a professor at the Harvard University, published in the May 1959 issue of the journal "American Economic Review." Davis' views on the constructive international purposes to be served by selling U.S. agricultural surpluses for foreign currencies under Title I of Public Law 480 must nevertheless be subjected to the critical process of weighing conflicting evidence, distinguishing valid generalizations from official or unofficial rationalizations, and disclosing unobtrusive side effects. Under present practices, continuing shipments of expendable U.S. commodities are being converted into substantial long-term claims against foreign economic resources. Both the U.S. and the importing country are more eager to move the goods under sales agreements than to negotiate subsequent loan agreements. But pools of local currencies, rising at compound rates in keeping with annual export shipments and prospective loan repayment schedules, are likely to become increasingly embarrassing to both parties.

The progress of European recovery has been anything but steady since the winter of 1946-1947. It moved forward rapidly in 1948 and the very beginning of 1949, but the U.S. recession in the summer of 1949 set Europe back sharply. Indexes of production were stagnant or declining in most of Europe during that summer. It looked as if what was originally conceived as a largely physical task of expanding agricultural and industrial production had already, at a much earlier stage than anticipated, encountered the problem of inadequate markets for the output that could be produced. The setback was climaxed by the devaluation of sterling in September and devaluations of practically all other European currencies that followed immediately in its wake. This paper is concerned with the economic state of Europe now and in the near future, it contains certain views which may have a wider application in time and in space. It is written in the belief that there are lessons to be learned from current European experience which have quite general significance for economic policy, public and private, here as well as in Europe. As the title of this paper suggests, it is intended as an essay in political economy rather than in pure economics or economic theory.

In recent years, many economists and administrators have calculated the grant element of foreign aid and evaluated the degree of concession contained in various types of aid. However, few, if any, calculations have been made of the reduction in the real economic value of foreign aid imposed on a recipient country due to "tying of aid." If the reduction is substantial, analysis based on the nominal amount of foreign aid would be misleading and the effects of aid would be overemphasized. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the real value of foreign aid which Indonesia actually received in 1967-69. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a second and comparison paper on the continuance and functioning of a kin family network in contemporary industrial society. The concept of the kin network is proposed as a replacement for the one which posits that a nuclear family unit is most suited functionally for the exigencies of modern life. The kin family network is composed of nuclear families bound together by affectional ties and choice. The lifelines of the network are help and service exchanged among members of nuclear families related by blood and affinal ties. Help, service and social interaction characterize the activities of this interdependent kin family system identified as the kin family network. Help and service among kin members take many forms. The principal form of help among parents and their married offspring is financial aid. One purpose of this paper is to examine how much aid binds together nuclear related families along generational lines. In this paper the term parental aid for married children is limited to financial assistance which may be in the form of cash, gifts, or services.

The article discusses the public expenditure proposals by means of a regular usual White Paper followed by parliamentary debate in Great Britain. The public spending is the first issue in the new series of the White Paper. The control of the public expenditure has two main aspects. First, it must be looked upon its wider context as an element in the broad economic strategy of the Government. Secondly as a means of securing the rational planning of public programmes which embody major social and economic aims. It also presents the Parliament's consideration regarding public expenditure, as well as the standing orders of the House of Commons in its authorization regarding the incurrence of expenditure.

This paper examines the interrelations between internal and external policies and the role of foreign assistance in the development experience of the 1960-1970 period. Almost all countries that had not already achieved growth rates of more than five percent in the 195Os planned for accelerated growth in the 196Os. The main difference is in the growth of manufactured exports and services, which have grown at 15 percent compared to the anticipated rate of six percent. Total exports for the sample group have therefore grown at 5.9 percent compared to the projected rate of 5,1 percent. In general, successful development has led to increased supplies of external capital--usually on harder terms--whereas unsuccessful development has usually led to a reduction in the aid supplied. In countries of retarded growth, on the other hand, there has been less of a shortfall in savings and investment rates than in growth of gross national product. Internal factors provide the primary explanation of slow growth in Tunisia and Chile. In Ceylon and Ghana, the retardation of growth can be largely attributed to market conditions for their major primary exports-- tea and cocoa, respectively--which account for over 50 percent of total exports in each country. In India and, to a lesser extent, Colombia, the reduction in external assistance played a major role in retarding growth. In the aid planning of the 196Os, the donors were primarily concerned with the efficiency of use of capital, the risk of loss, and intercountry equity. The shortfall of aid to India in 1962-70 was on the order of $6 billion.

The importance of foreign aid and its relationship to economic development will not be denied by either theoretician or practitioner. In recent years, however, the work of Chenery and his associates, culminating in the recent article by Chenery and Strout in this Review, has promised to deliver "a theoretical framework designed to analyze the process of development with external assistance in quantitative terms." It is the purpose of this paper to examine rigorously this framework, and to evaluate its validity and operational usefulness. The essence of the Chenery-Strout paper is a proposed method for the estimation of the foreign aid "needed" by a typical less developed society in the course of growth. The two main building blocks of their theory are, first, the recognition that foreign aid can be used to fill either a saving gap or a foreign exchange gap and second, the proposition that the typical less developed country must move through three distinct consecutive stages of growth characterized by a difference in the gap-filling function of aid.

The article presents the author's comments on the research paper "International Monetary Fund," by professor John H. Williams published in the October 1944 issue of the Foreign Affairs. In his paper Williams says that it has now been recognized that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not finance relief and reconstruction needs, or assist in the liquidation of war balances. It is also provided that members can elect to maintain exchange controls under special arrangements for the transition period. Williams wonders, therefore, what the functions of the IMF in the transition period are. The author says that even though relief, reconstruction, and development needs are not to be met by the IMF, the temporary difficulties intended to be met by the IMF will occur as frequently and be as serious in the transition period as at any other time. Temporary balance of payments difficulties are bound to arise in the course of adjustments to wartime shifts in production, transportation, and markets. For this reason there is need immediately after the World War not only for an international agreement to stabilize exchange rates and to provide for the orderly removal of exchange controls, but also for a fund of credits to help countries that do not elect to maintain controls and countries that are seeking to eliminate controls as rapidly as possible.

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The article presents a fictional interview with Grant Swinger, director of the Breakthrough Institute and chairman of the board of the Center for the Absorption of Federal Funds. Swinger stated the purpose of the Center for the Absorption of Federal Funds. He offered an overview of the work of the center toward the development of programs, procedures and goals for its member institutions. Details of the types of tests and examinations being developed by the center are also outlined.

The article presents information on several books on economic development and aid. The book "Reflections on American Economic Policy in the Middle East," by A.J. Meyer, presents a brief analysis of what the U.S. is doing in the Middle East and a longer dissertation on what should be done. The book "Time for U.S.A. to Husband Its Financial Strength," by Paul Einzig, suggests that the U.S. need no longer aid Europe and must, for the sake of the Free World's defense, put its own house in good economic order. The book "American Policy and the Free World Economy," By Bertrand De Jouvenal, analyzes American efforts at cutting inflation and how they have affected the free world. The book "Cultural and Personal Obstacles to Economic Development in the Less Developed Areas," By Philip M. Hauser, is an analysis of people in underdeveloped countries and the influence their characteristics have on the development of their areas. The book "Financing Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries," by Mustafa Ali Khan, discusses the economic problems of underdeveloped countries.

This article covers the eight Socialist centrally planned economies belonging to Comecon (or CMEA). They represent one-tenth of the world's population, one-fifth of its area, one-fifth of its national income and one-third of its industrial output. These countries are becoming an important factor in the international scientific and technical scene, and East-West co-operation and rivalry are assuming a new stance. However, the study of research and development (R & D) in these economies is of greater interest and value for methodological reasons. The Socialist countries have evolved an R & D set-up of their own which, owing to their ideological allegiance to Marxism, the prevalence of the social ownership of the means of production and the pursuit of central planning, bears some unique characteristics. To accelerate technological progress, in the last 10-15 years the European Comecon countries have embarked on some radical improvements of their system of R & D. It is now less removed from that prevailing in capitalist market economies, due to converging tendencies on both sides. It must be realized that the state involvement in R & D in capitalist countries has been steadily increasing and in most of them the share of R & D financed by governments is now from one-half to three-quarters. In this paper we shall examine the institutional framework and the conduct of R & D under central planning of the Socialist type, the financing and effectiveness of R & D, the integration of research with production, co-operation amongst the Comecon countries and with the capitalist world, and we shall conclude by considering the problem of incentives and payment for R & D results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a report on the need for a more thorough understanding of the budgetary behavior of state and local governments, particularly the way in which it is influenced by intergovernmental transfers and to assess the role of federal grants and other factors in influencing the budgetary behavior of state and local governments. Discussion of different forms of grant assistance and how they might be expected to affect the budgetary behavior of states and localities differently; Theory of state and local fiscal behavior; Analysis of intergovernmental transfers; How ideas about federal grants can be used to develop a model of the determination of state and local government expenditures, revenues, and budget surpluses;Impact of federal grant policy on state and local expenditures; Suggestion that lump-sum transfers such as general revenue sharing will, for the first year, show up mainly as an increase in the accumulation of financial assets by states and localities.

This article examines the result of the study on nature of instrument instability in economic policy in the U.S. It finds out that money supply is a stable policy instrument and federal expenditures are an unstable instrument. Moreover, the A-J model indicates that the instrument of instability could render the precise achievement of goal stability in the United States. However, there are possible responses to instrument instability and one of it is to lengthen the period over which attempts to stabilize the goal variables. Furthermore, the research provided the information that the forecasting and optimal policy are to be of greatest possible benefit.

The experience of 1930s demonstrated how instabilities within countries can be transmitted to others through trade and thus serious concern with the problem of international economic instability continues to the present. This paper reports the results of statistical investigations of imports and exports stabilities for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) blocs. The study of trade stability can be based either on the country's aggregate trade along with the rest of the world or on binary, country-pair comparisons involving a large number of trading partners for each country. This study is based on country-pair comparisons. Total trade flows are much too aggregative and can conceal important differences in stability. Empirical results of this study shed new light on the trade stability patterns of the two blocs. The economic performance with respect to the trade stability of the OECD in general and the U.S. in particular was surprisingly good when compared to the Soviet Union and the COMECON countries.

For the past fifteen years, comparisons of the economic organization and development of India and Communist China have had a strong fascination for analysts in many parts of the world. The similarities of the economic structures of and problems faced by the two most populous nations on earth and the sharp contrast offered by their economic doctrines have been grist for numerous articles in many languages. The functions of this paper are to: briefly review the years 1950-57 so as to take into account recent scholarship by others; evaluate selected major developments since 1957; and offer some conclusions on the subject of Indian vis-a-vis Mainland Chinese economic progress since 1950. The performance of China's economy and particularly her industrial growth rate vis-a-vis that of India since 1950 has been grossly exaggerated. This is as true of 1957 and earlier years as it is of "The Great Leap Forward" and the subsequent period of distress. The extent of the exaggeration over the last fourteen years and the extent of whatever differences in performance may actually exist are impossible to determine, at present, given the statistical impasse which prevails. In both cases, the statistical association between the amount and kind of foreign aid received on one hand and the industrial progress registered on the other was self-evidently very high.

In the current context, foreign investments, as distinguished from grants, has been viewed as an issue of growing importance for the U.S. economy. It has been argued that the flow of the U.S. public and private funds overseas could bridge the still lingering dollar gap, create employment at home and may assist in the development of less advanced countries. This policy might be agreeable to all since loans and investments are usually subject to the payment of amortization and interest, the inflow of funds so produced is expected after a relatively short interval to exceed the outflow, a phenomenon which seems to be embarrassing to both the borrower and the lender. On the other hand, the waiving of interest and amortization might offend international dignity and be so upsetting to the "sound business" sense of the U.S. Congress that the payment of amortization and interest may be the lesser of the two evils. In the light of above these issues the article investigates the relationship between the inflow and outflow of funds which a continuous policy of foreign investment and lending will produce.

Peace research has progressed beyond the status of an idea. It is becoming institutionalized. During the last five years several new journals have been started, institutes have been organized, and the International Peace Research Association has been created. With the increasing readiness and ability of scientists to do peace research, the problem of finding funds has become even more acute. The main goal of this article is to present empirical information which may help to assess the potential for more financial support for peace research. More specific goals of the paper include: a description of the foreign policy attitudes and the social, cultural, and demographic characteristics of people who have contributed to peace research as opposed to those who did not contribute, and a list of predictors which usefully distinguish between the two groups and determine the level of support of the contributors. One of the Canadian Peace Research Institute's first projects was an extensive study of the attitudes of the Canadian public and some of its leadership groups on issues related to peace and war.

Although advanced countries are now providing public grants and loans to less developed countries at a rate in excess of six billion dollars per year, there is as yet no scientific basis for determining the effects of this resource transfer on the recipient's economic development. Suggestions for a strategy for more rapid development utilizing substantial amounts of external assistance have been set out in several recent papers. These studies suggest that a moderate volume of external resources may make possible a substantial increase in the rate of growth of an underdeveloped economy through financing additional investment as well as through providing the additional imports required to sustain a higher level of income. There are several countries in which successful programs of economic development have originated from postwar recovery programs--notably Greece, Taiwan, Israel, and the Philippines. All of these have received substantial amounts of assistance, have had an accelerated growth of national income, and have steadily reduced their dependence on external assistance for continued growth. In this article Greece is selected from this group as best suited for an econometric investigation of the effects of aid on growth, and the policy problems presented by dependence on external assistance.

As debt service payments of the less-developed world increase very rapidly, an increasing number of writers warn that the terms of foreign assistance must be softened or a large number of less-developed countries will find the burden of their debt service intolerable (see, for example, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [1968]). On the other hand, the writings of a number of economists have provided arguments for the use of relatively high rates of interest, at least as high as the government borrowing rate in the donor country (see Schmidt [1964] and Cooper [1965]). The purpose of this paper is to analyze optimal terms of foreign, assistance under three different types of assumptions: (1) perfect certainty and a constant return to capital, (2) limitations on absorptive capacity of the borrowing country, and (3) uncertainty of returns in the borrowing country. These three cases lead to quite different lending criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a list of reference material related to economic development and aid. The article "Industrialization and Productivity," discusses the size of plant in underdeveloped countries, problems of small-scale industry, principally in Japan, management of industrial enterprises in underdeveloped countries and problems of operating technological research institutes. Another article "Patterns in Industrial; Growth," analyses of the significant changes between 1938, 1948, 1953 and 1958 in the role, output, employment and productivity of the mining, manufacturing, construction, and gas and electricity producing industries of the world. One of the articles "Plain Talk in Five Panels," analyzes five groups of professional workers who discusses topics like causes of success and failure in technical assistance projects; balance in economic development; selection and training for cross-cultural work; what the less developed countries want; the role of development banks. The article named "Redressing the Balance," presents an English viewpoint on the U.S. request that Europe start to shoulder aid to underdeveloped countries.