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The article focuses on the prophecies of scarcity or exhaustion of natural resources in the United States. Prophecies have been more than symptoms. They have played an important part in bringing about changes in public opinion and policy by dramatizing the problems involved and putting them into more concrete and understandable terms. In addition, their study illustrates changes in the methods used in arriving at the extent of resources and in prognosticating rates of exploitation. The prophecies of exhaustion or depletion of the natural resources that have been made during the last decade show certain changes compared with earlier predictions. In general they are much less spectacular in their estimates of future rates of exploitation. According to the author, the prophets in the field of resource exhaustion or depletion have not been very accurate in their predictions. While a lack of accurate estimates either of the extent of resources or of future rates of use did not embarrass those who were interested in propaganda statements, these deficiencies made it largely impossible for the most impartial observers to forecast correctly.

This article focuses on measuring the accuracy of prediction. A number of statistical measures of accuracy are available. However, one of the most commonly used measures is often erroneously applied, or incorrectly interpreted. Economists who do not happen to be statisticians, and there are many such, should at least be able to interpret the measures of accuracy in everyday use with some degree of precision. Average deviation is one of the measures of accuracy. The average deviation has one outstanding disadvantage when used in this way. This measure of accuracy appears in units identical with those of the forecasted and actual series. Thus two forecasts expressed in dissimilar units are not directly comparable, nor can their average deviations be readily compared. If the deviation is expressed in terms of percent, this difficulty is overcome, and it is possible to compare the accuracy of a forecast in dollars with one in pounds, or other units. Since the error with which we are concerned is due to a deviation of the forecasted from the actual price, we may divide each deviation by the actual price occurring in that observation.

The article focuses on the corn and hog industry which is one of the most fundamental enterprises in the U.S. Corn is the most important crop in the U.S. both in acreage and value. More than three-fourths of the farms included by the 1920 census reported corn. The value of corn has been greater than the combined values of wheat and cotton during nine of the eleven years from 1910 to 1921. The farm value of hogs produced for slaughter has been second to the value of corn in every year from 1910 to 1921. The Corn Belt farmer has a choice of marketing his corn direct to the primary markets as cash grain, or of marketing it through livestock. The outstanding use of corn is as a feed for animals. More than 85% is given to horses, 4% to poultry, 1% to sheep, 5.5% to stock not on farms, 1.5% is exported and 3% for other uses. The price of corn at a given time depends primarily upon the supply and supply is determined principally by the weather. The demand for corn for export and commercial uses is relatively small compared with the demand for corn as feed for livestock. The prices of the corn over a period of years depends largely upon corn production. The demand for corn is relatively inelastic.

The purpose of this article is to supplement the statistics of "the equation of exchange" for the United States published a year ago in the "American economic Review" by including the figures for 1911, and discussing the indications for the future. The equation of exchange, expressed in algebraic symbols, is MV+M'V'=PT. The estimates as calculated independently for these six magnitudes, M, M', V, V', P, T, show a remarkable self-consistency, and thus check each other's accuracy. The left aide, MV + M' V', is found to be 428 and the right side, PT, to be 420. In order to eliminate this slight discrepancy, that is, to make all six magnitudes self-consistent, the author has, as in previous years, arbitrarily corrected the original estimates. By this mutual adjustment or correction the six magnitudes are made to fulfill the equation of exchange exactly, and each magnitude is assigned its most probable value. The largest adjustment or correction was made, of course, in those magnitudes the first estimates of which were regarded as least trustworthy.

The problem of 'prediction of future hospital bed needs' cannot be adequately solved by usual prediction techniques in case of high occupancy rates of a hospital over the past years, since trends are not recognized in this situation. The following method is proposed if the usual prediction techniques do not seem adequate (1) Relate the number of patients per month to factors that can be predicted by using multiple regression techniques (2) Predict the number of patients per month with the help of multiple regression equations (3) Predict the number of beds from the predicted number of patients per month, by multiplication of the predicted number of patients per month by the fraction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on labor supplies for organizations. It states that there is a need for a predictive theory of labor supply and demand for individual organizations in order to solve problems such as labor turnover, wage and productivity drift, and unofficial strikes. It comments that newspaper descriptions of these problems rarely contain elements needed to predict particular cases or the generalization of particular processes. It mentions that labor theory proceeds from two perspectives, economic theory and institutional analysis, and that neither can give practical insights into labor issues faced by organizations.

The article focuses on the evolution of business strategic planning. The article suggests that the strategy formulation is dynamic process that can lead to a reconsideration of objectives and a recommencement of strategy formulation. It comments that board objectives are a set of quantitative indices and qualitative characteristics of a firm's future performance. It comments that internal political objectives include ownership retention. It mentions that other non-economic objectives include employee welfare, public image, and the avoidance of political clashes with external forces. It states that forecasts involve both anticipating future trends and an estimation of the effects the trends will have on the organization's performance.

This article is concerned with environmental forecasting as practised in British industry today and with the problem of presenting forecasts to policy makers in the way which will be most useful to them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the work activities of industrial middle management. It presents information from surveys given to middle managers of companies in Great Britain concerning how they utilize their time. It examines how the knowledge and skills required for effective management could be assessed, and to which extent managers work activities differ and are similar. It comments on differences in management in companies of differing styles and production technologies. It states that management is comprised of five activities: commanding, controlling, forecasting, organizing, and planning.

The theme is proposed that a learning theory of vocational behavior could contribute to both understanding and theory development in the area of vocational decisions. The discussion includes a definition of vocational decisions and specification of three functions of a theory. The functions are explanation, prediction, and control. The developmental, psychoanalytic, and trait approaches to theories of vocational decisions are contrasted with a learning approach in terms of the definition of decisions and the functions of theories. An example of vocational counseling illustrates the application of learning concepts to vocational decision behavior. The major advantages of a learning theory approach are that it has the potential for both accurate prediction and extensive control of decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the hypotheses of (a) no difference between persons who are seen as being understanding compared with persons who are seen as not being understanding in making predictions of how a subject (S) would complete a Semantic Differential (SD); (b) S's will assume a greater similarity to those they see as being understanding than to those seen as not being understanding and (c) some aspects of similarity exist at a level other than assumed. 152 ninth grade S's were asked to (a) rank members of their group on the basis of being "understanding," (b) complete the SD, and (c) complete the SD as they expected every other person in their group to complete it. The results were in accord with hypotheses a and b, and c was partially confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two hypotheses regarding tolerance of the speech behavior of others are extracted from Stouffer's work. By interpreting the conditions of the hypotheses in terms of a contact and an expected rewards effect resulting from educational differences, and a perceived rewards effect resulting from occupational status differences, seven predictions are formulated. The seven predictions are compared to data from a relatively highly-educated, mobile, and predominantly southern female sample. The hypotheses find general support but there are several anomalies. These irregularities are examined in terms of possible implications for the hypotheses and tentative explanations are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the importance of forecasting and planning in policy sciences. Forecasting and planning constitute important aspects of the policy sciences to the extent that they deal with the design of policies, which forms part of their content. The advances recently made in their conceptualization have led to a clearer recognition of the nature of policies and policymaking, and of the interaction of forecasting and planning at the policy level with corresponding intellectual pursuits at strategic and operational levels. Thus, the emerging concepts of forecasting and planning may become instrumental in shaping a fruitful concept of the policy sciences.

This article focuses on the construction costs of Irish railways during the years 1830-1853. The standard history of Irish railways, however, completely ignores the crucial factor of construction costs, making no attempt to examine capital accounts, or to assess the importance of a single engineer or contractor during the period under review. This article attempts to repair this omission by surveying the construction cost of the 17 lines open in 1853. It must, however, be emphasized that the difficulties noted in his important article which breaks down the costs of English lines, apply also to Ireland. As all companies presented their accounts differently, and as it is not possible to vouch for the accuracy of every item in every account, according to the author's estimates are more concerned with getting the orders of magnitude right than in striving towards the spurious accuracy of decimal places. The speed with which projects were promoted in the mania atmosphere of 1836 and 1845 did not always allow time for proper surveys of the proposed routes. The companies themselves were thus partly responsible for incurring unnecessary preliminary expenditure.

This article presents information on a report of the Committee on Accounting Theory Construction and Verification of the American Accounting Association. The process of theory construction and verification has for many years been the subject of analysis from a variety of points of view by scholars interested in the philosophy of science. Only recently has it become a topic for research and discussion in accounting. A theory is, first of all, a set of sentences. Theories are expressed in a language and therefore the study of language is pertinent to the study of theories. Indeed much of the philosophy of science is nothing but a study of language, although it is a study of the language peculiar to the scientist. The inputs to the accounting system are observations made on real world phenomena. The outputs from the accounting system are both empirical and analytic. Only the empirical outputs can be directly verified by independent reference back down to the observation plane. The analytic outputs must somehow be verified through the prediction models and the decision models in which they, along with the empirical outputs, are used. The outputs from prediction models are primarily empirical, although it is possible that some may be analytic. Decision models utilize both empirical and theoretical outputs from both the accounting system and the prediction models.

This article suggests a procedure for evaluating the accuracy of forecasted information in accounting and presents the results of a limited empirical investigation of forecasting accuracy. Two aspects are important in the evaluation of forecasting accuracy: (1) differences between the forecasted amount and the actual amount for a particular year and (2) trends in differences over time. An analysis of differences arising in a particular year provides an indication of a firm's ability to meet its goals and would reveal substantial differences that would merit investigation into a management's ability to react to unanticipated events. At the outset of this project, a request to participate in research into forecasting accuracy was extended to more than 50 firms. Interest in the project was evidenced by eighteen firms. Of these, twelve firms provided usable empirical data while the other six firms limited their participation to an interview with a corporate executive. The type of data obtained were forecasts and actual results for various income statement classifications for as many years as was practicable, usually five years. Forecasted balance sheet data were excluded because executives generally stated that such data were very inaccurate or that the firm prepared a forecasted income statement only. Within this article, analysis is limited to forecasts of sales and net income because of their dominant role.

The article discusses the nature of decision models and information evaluation models. The first section presents a general framework, or model, for information evaluation. The second examines the nature of the operational model that would be constructed in order to apply the general framework in a specific setting. The information evaluation process is viewed in cost-benefit terms; and the cost-benefit, or value, calculation is developed from the point of view of an individual who decides what information to supply. Different signals may result in different decisions, and, therefore, the information evaluator must develop a conditional probability distribution over the future events for each possible signal. Decision models seldom represent as controllable variables all actions that must be taken. Most mathematical models do not attempt to include detailed predictions of individual events. One simplified and well-known method for selecting information systems is to base the selection on personal opinion. Some insights that can be developed by such an exploration were then related to information choice issues and information research methods.

The article examines several problems in the events approach to accounting theory using distinction among terms. Terms used in any science theory may be grouped with reference to the "mode of verification." Verification of a value-inference term would require testing the consistency, necessity, and sufficiency of the inferential logic. The term "event" refers in a general way to an action, occurrence, or happening that could be described by one or more of an infinite number of properties, attributes, or characteristics. A primary need for any accounting theory is a taxonomy that satisfies the criteria of exclusiveness, exhaustiveness, efficiency, and effectiveness. A forecast may relate one kind of event to an expectation of that same kind of event. It can be temporal, as when the antecedent market values of a firm's common stock are used to forecast its subsequent market value. Like extrapolation, prediction may make formal use of statistical techniques. Any accounting observation or inference that is useless for forecasting, is useless for guiding action. If no accounting data were accurate in forecasting, then accounting would be useless for decision. If accuracy in forecasting cannot be established for accounting data, then the claim that accounting is useful for decision is an empty boast.

One criterion being employed by a growing body of empirical research is predictive ability. According to this criterion, alternative accounting measurements are evaluated in terms of their ability to predict events of interest to decision-makers. The measure with the greatest predictive power with respect to a given event is considered to be the best method for that particular purpose. Because the predictive ability criterion is currently being used and is likely to experience even greater use in the future, this article examines its origin, its relation-ship to the facilitation of decision-making, and the potential difficulties associated with its implementation. Knowing the origin of the predictive ability criterion is important in understanding what is meant by predictive ability and why it is being used in evaluating accounting data. The criterion is well established in the social and natural sciences as a method for choosing among competing hypotheses. The use of the predictive ability criterion presupposes that alternatives under consideration have met the tests of logic and that each has a theory supporting it.

The accounting theory revolution consists essentially of an attempt to overthrow the traditional emphasis on costs in accounting theory and to replace it with a logical structure centered on values. It is hoped that this will provide a basis for resolving major theory controversies and for narrowing the present diversity of accepted practice. The "pure theory" of accounting rests on a definition of resources in terms of economic power of an entity and a definition of income in terms of changes in resources. The ideal measure of resources is current exchange value. This is not the same as either liquidation value or market replacement cost, though these set lower and upper limits, respectively, and can often be used to measure value. When these limits are widely separated, value must be estimated. It is often appropriate to forecast future benefits in making these estimates. The amount expended for an asset is ordinarily a reliable measure of its value at the time of acquisition. In some cases it is impossible to get a reasonable approximation of the value of an asset, though there may be no doubt that some exchange value exists. Such assets are included in the term "goodwill," and are not recorded in the absence of an actual exchange.

This article focuses on some of the problems facing the accounting society and suggests what the profession of accounting can do toward their future solutions. The problems are summarized as--To induce, rather than to force, business management and union labor to reach collective bargaining agreements, to save out of the flow of consumer purchasing power and corporate earnings, enough to equip with adequate tools and other capital assets, to achieve a more adequate understanding on the part of many more persons of the nature and workings of monetary system in its relationship to international and domestic commodity prices, wage rates, volume of business, volume of savings and levels of interest rates. To make progress towards something, that is a paradox and may turn out to be an impossibility. According to the author, accountants can and must play a leading role in disseminating the necessary information and knowledge and the extent to which Accountancy contributes to the necessary solution of these problems will determine the brilliance of its future.

Perhaps the best known explanation of fluctuations in inventory investment is that of economists Lloyd Metzler which rests on an aggregative stock-flow or acceleration analysis. The Metzler theory bids for attention because it is simple and general, which on a priori grounds is scientifically appealing and because certain of its implications are compatible with empirical data. Nevertheless, for at least three reasons one may question its usefulness both in forecasting and in explaining past events: first, its mechanism is extremely aggregative; second, it relies on a constant "normal" stock-sales ratio whereas in reality this ratio may fluctuate over the course of the cycle and finally, the structure of business behavior, institutions and technology may prove to be too unstable over time to permit a Metzler-type econometric model, whose parameters have been derived from a past period, to be useful in prediction. It is possible to move part way towards a resolution of these three uncertainties by subjecting several inventory investment functions, incorporating the basic ingredients of the accelerator part of the Metzler theory, to a test against time series of manufacturers' inventory and sales data.

The object in devoting the entire May 1, 1968 issue of the "International Social Science Journal," to examples of problem-focused research work in various fields is to draw attention to one of the most typical and crucial poles of development in the sciences of man. Although the world today is a changing one, what is characteristic is perhaps not so much the speed or magnitude of the change as the realization that it exists and the determination to control it by forecasting, planning and organizing what is to come. Action for which scientific preparations and projections have been made is becoming increasingly widespread, data must be collected and compared and then knowledge must be coupled with action to produce fruitful results. Within the human sciences, between the world of pure thought dealing with theory, where knowledge alone matters and is of intrinsic value and the world of informed action, where utility and practical considerations take precedence, there is a vast area where questions of theory and utility mingle in varying proportions. In this area, the desire for knowledge is to a certain extent linked with the desire for action, and in order to cover all aspects of a subject, recourse is had to a variety of disciplines. This is the field of study which is here described as problem-focused multidisciplinary research.

The article presents a study which focuses on the consideration of the expressed personality needs as predictors in the success of the sales in the industrial life insurance. It mentions that brief descriptions of the categories including dominance, gregariousness, and altruism are adopted in the study to conserve space the full instructions for coding. It adds that a valid selection instrument in the personality area, which is lacking in the usual procedure of sales selection can be furnished by the prediction method proposed in the study. Moreover, the validity of the existing procedures for selection is improved by selecting a management personnel.

The fundamental theorem of exponential smoothing is extended to include the nonasymptotic case where only a finite number of time series observations are available. This extension leads to the rigorous elimination of the present need for initial conditions in general order exponential smoothing forecasts. In addition, a computationally efficient procedure is presented for the calculation of all elements of the general order exponential smoothing coefficient matrix. These extensions of the fundamental theorem permit the applied use of general order exponential smoothing in a computationally efficient and unambiguous manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All-time requirements forecasting and the translation of these forecasts, via a dynamic inventory model, into production schedules are effective tools for controlling manufacturing, inventory and obsolescence costs of past-model replacement parts. Traditional forecasting rules and steady-state EOQ models prove inappropriate for the special problems posed by the demand decay characteristics of all service parts. A new forecasting technique, based on the principle of estimating sales requirements for all-time into the future, is described along with a dynamic inventory model for ordering production runs. Together, these techniques--developed for implementation by an American auto manufacturer--provide results superior to those of other, more traditional, procedures. An inventory review system for achieving model implementation is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several letters to the editor are presented in response to articles in earlier issues of "Management Science," including "Social Change and the 'Evaluation Function' in Government," by Nicholas E. Golovin, "Sales Forecasting with a Human Simulator," by Schussel in the June 1967 issue, and another on an earlier letter to the editor titled "On Information Systems" in the June 1969 issue.

Judgments of the relative similarity of pairs of alternatives are used to construct a model of the decision space of a group of college admissions officers. This model is then used to predict the preferences of the officers. The accuracy of the predictions supports the hypothesis that preference judgments are made on the basis of the similarity of given alternatives to an "ideal" alternative. A nonmetric multidimensional representation based upon very few assumptions about the nature of the similarity measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last thirty years, the method of the Laplace transform has found an increasing number of applications in the fields of physics and technology. In this article the author points out the possibility of solving problems in the area of discounting with the aid of this method. Without any loss of general validity, it is shown that a discount factor can always be written in an exponential manner which implies that the present value of a cash-flow will obtain a very simple form in the Laplace terminology. This simplicity holds good for stochastic as well as for deterministic economic processes, and the results mentioned below should, therefore, be of immediate use when applied, e.g., to investment problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on the elicitation of information and response biases of repressors, sensitizers and neutrals in behavior prediction. Repressor, sensitizer, and neutral judges predicted the responses of neutral targets on the Adjective Check List. Each judge was paired with a neutral target and interviewed him with the aim of getting to know him as well as possible. Hence, each judge elicited information on which to base his predictions. The groups did not differ with regard to content of information elicited or relevance of the information for criterion responses. Differences in predictions were noted which were consistent with expectations based upon the response biases of the judges. It was concluded that group differences in behavior prediction cannot be accounted for by differential elicitation of information in interpersonal interaction, but instead are determined by response biases. While groups differed in degree of activity in eliciting information from targets, the nature of the information did not differ with regard to interview content measures or judged relevance of the information for the predictive task. Hence, group differences in prediction cannot be accounted for by differential elicitation of information in interpersonal interaction within the limits of this study.

The article investigated a communication situation where information was given about the attitudes of source and receiver toward an issue, and about the stand taken by the communication toward this issue. Subjects in the role of receiver were required to make predictions about how the communication would be evaluated by source and receiver, the degree to which the source would be liked and seen as credible by the receiver, and to what extent the source would be judged responsible for the communication he presented. Subjects were required to identify with a fictitious person whose attitude toward a controversial issue was indicated in a short personality profile. For each of 16 different communication situations they were given information about the sign and strength of both the source's attitude toward the issue and the stand taken by the communication toward the issue. They were required to answer six questions for each communication situation from the receiver's point of view. A receiver was judged as more likely to agree with an attitude-congruent communication the more similar its stand was to his attitude, and he was more likely to disagree with an attitude-discrepant communication the more dissimilar its stand was to his attitude. The source was expected to behave in the same way.

The article focuses on anxiety and the learning of responses varying in initial rank in the response hierarchy. The testing of hypotheses derived from the research by K.W. Spence and Janet A. Taylor drive theory for verbal learning has led to a mass of inconsistent results. Since predictions regarding the effects of drive on performance depend upon the relative strength of correct and incorrect responses prior to learning, some of these inconsistencies may be due to the fact that false assumptions were made concerning Ss' response hierarchies. As W.F. Hill has pointed out, assumptions regarding the hierarchical position of correct and incorrect responses are generally based on a priori notions as to the effects of task complexity, and these assumptions are not actually verified for specific Ss on the particular tasks being used. In order to cope with this problem a special task has been devised in which it is possible to determine the hierarchical position of four intratask response classes.

The research reported in the article was designed to explore some relationships with reference to the behavior of repressors and sensitizers. The other variables studied in this investigation were: nature of the stimulus, set to predict, and exposure to the stimulus. There are thus several different response tendencies which may lead to the same level of predictive accuracy. If definitive knowledge is to be acquired about the dynamics of interpersonal prediction, it is necessary to uncover and assess the role of response tendencies because of the ambiguity otherwise involved in accuracy measures. Particular levels and directions of response tendencies may vary as a function of the nature of the predictor, characteristics of the stimulus object, exposure time of the stimulus, predictor motivation, etc. A statement of accuracy of prediction is thus ultimately derivable from a knowledge of the relationships among these basic factors which determine the level and direction of response tendency, together with a knowledge of the nature of the predicted object. In these terms, the question of veridicality of interpersonal perception is ultimately a question of the rate at which response tendencies change as a function of changes in the stimulus along various dimensions, and as a function of changes in the predicting or perceiving individual.

Several misconceptions have been introduced into hydrology that have had adverse consequences on the science and on water-resources development. Persistent use of the concept of maximum precipitation and maximum probable precipitation, for which there is no physical proof, has discouraged research into the structure and probability of extreme events, and may have led to an unwarranted sense of security concerning flood-control works. Attempts at long range forecasts of water supply based entirely on meteorological processes have misdirected research and raised false expectations. A misconception that hydrologic processes are composed of a limited number of hidden periodicities has retarded the use of modern stochastic analyses of time series. Cloud-seeding to increase numbers of raindrops rather than their coalescence may have had a negative effect on precipitation in arid regions. Considering ground water, instead of the aquifer, as a resource has stressed the technology of withdrawal at the expense of study of methods of recharge and has led to much unplanned overdraft of ground water. Use of descriptive instead of numerical variables has delayed the application of modern statistical methods to planning the exploration of the ground-water environment. As a result of the neglect of the stochastic properties of porous mediums, fluid mechanics theory has not departed far from the original works of Darcy. Hydrology has developed slowly because it has been considered an appendage of hydraulic engineering rather than a natural science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general theory of nonlinear synthesis and analysis in hydrology is discussed, with particular reference to the problems of predictive uncertainty. These problems are associated with incomplete descriptions of the hydrologic systems, limited model-prototype equivalences, system variability in time, and system nonlinearity. Solutions to the nonlinear analysis problem of hydrologic systems under the assumption of approximate time invariance, based on complex cascade network approximations, power series and polynomial expansions, and variable response function approximations are presented. The relations between present theoretical knowledge and its practical application are summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the need for objective criteria in selecting foster homes has been stressed repeatedly in the literature, social workers continue to select foster homes on the basis of their subjective judgments. This article attempts to relate certain objective characteristics of foster parents and foster children to the success or failure of foster home placements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the usefulness of survey data on capital outlay plans and sales expectations in economic forecasting. It focuses on the analysis of the "Annual Survey of Business Anticipations of Plant and Equipment Expenditures" as a survey tool. It is concerned mainly with the time-series analysis of the data. Section II of the article is devoted to an analysis of the record of the anticipatory data as direct forecasts. Section III analyzes possible uses of the anticipatory data other than in direct forecasts. A section discussing the formulation of a simple model demonstrating the approach was presented.

The article discusses the significance of monetary surveys and monetary analysis in economic forecasting. The simplest type of economic analysis looks to the money supply for evidence on, and a measure of, inflationary of deflationary tendencies in the economy. While the analysis of fluctuations in the money supply can be useful in a first approximation when examining inflationary tendencies in a closed economy. Some of the data entering reserve money analysis are sometimes obtainable from the monetary surveys themselves, but the focus of attention is different.

The purpose of this study was to test instrumentality theory predictions of work effort. The theory suggests that effort exerted on an activity is a function of the probability (instrumentality) of effort leading to certain outcomes weighted by the evaluation of these outcomes. In this research the amount of effort exerted on various tasks by a group of faculty members at a large university in the United States was examined. Predictions based on instrumentality theory were tested along with predictions based on modifications of the theory. It was found that the modifications of the theory generally led to improved predictions of effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the study was to compare the efficacy of an averaging (congruity) formula vs. an additive formula for the evaluation of complex stimuli when negative adjectives were used to describe the attitude topic. A third formula, a logarithm formula proposed by Mannis, Gleason, and Dawes (15), was also used to predict final attitude from the negative components. Two attitude topics were used, a fictional character described in a short story and the cultural truisms used by McGuire (16). Subjects (115 undergraduate men) read a story including negative descriptions of the fictional character and also read passages containing attacks on the cultural truism. They then rated adjectives and arguments on semantic differential scales to provide information for computing the summation, congruity, and logarithm predictions, and then indicated their final evaluation of the truism and the fictional character. The summation formula was more effective than the congruity model in predicting evaluation of the fictional character. However, congruity predictions were more effective than the summation predictions regarding the cultural truism. Predictions of the logarithm formula were only minimally effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents marketing abstracts pertaining to research and forecasting. They include "Operations Research in Marketing," by Peter E. Sandor, "Is Survey Postcard Verification Effective?," by Mathew Hauck, and "Husband-Wife Response Similarities on Evaluative and Non-Evaluative Survey Methods," by John A. Ballweg.

The article presents abstracts of marketing articles related to economic forecasting. They include "Economic Forecasting," by Avram Kisselgoff, "The Board of Directors Looks at Long-Range Planning," by James Dowd, and "The Dynamic Force of the Energy Industries," by Gilbert Burck and Sanford S. Parker.

A section of abstracts summarizes recent articles relating to market and economic forecasting, including "Decomposition of Economic Time Series," by Julius Shiskin, published in the December 19, 1958, issue of "Science," as well as "Prediction and Feedback in Business Planning," by William D. McEachron, published in the July-August 1958 issue of "Operations Research," and "Sales of Ethical Drugs in 1975," published in the February 16, 1959, issue of "FDC Reports."