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This paper presents a comparison between similar types of American and Canadian forecasts of annual gross national product for an identical period (1960-69) using the same error measures. It was concluded that on mean, mean absolute, and mean square error bases, American forecasts were significantly more accurate than were the Canadian ones in predicting relative changes in their respective annual gross national products during the period 1960-69. Forecasters in both the United States and Canada were likely to have made the same types of errors on average in forecasting any given year. The general conclusion from the analysis of the errors seemed to suggest that a bias toward underestimating change may be less evident in the American gross national product forecasts than in those made in Canada. The negative mean errors were smaller, the percentage of underestimates was smaller, the covariance components of the mean square errors were larger, and the regression and test statistics were less suggestive. One of the more important points is that when "adjustments" of the predictions for differences in the basic nature of the economies are made, the conclusions as to differences in the "accuracy" of aggregate forecasts made in various countries may change a great deal. That is, conclusions as to differences in forecasting ability based solely on the comparison of "absolute accuracy" could be seriously misleading if the economies are not of approximately similar natures. The method of "adjustment" used here assumes that information as to the nature of the economies is contained in the past history of the variables to be forecast, so that a more worthwhile comparison is obtained when the respective judgmental sets are first "adjusted" by extrapolative predictions from these past actuals. Comparisons of the "relative" accuracy of forecasts showed that the American predictions of annual gross national product percentage changes had larger relative mean square errors than did the Canadian sets. That is, the American sets were only about as accurate as, and probably less accurate then, relative to extrapolative predictions. the forecasts made in Canada. The predictive efficiency of the Canadian gross national product forecasts relative to that of the extrapolative predictions was generally higher than that of the American predictions; the amount of autonomous information and available extrapolative information included was also somewhat higher. However, the extrapolative information actually used in forecasting was quite low in both countries, probably because of the essentially trendless nature of percentage changes in gross national product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An interest in the political strategy implications of the 1960 election polls led authors to collect a sample of forecasts from around the U.S. The project started quite innocently as a result of a penchant for clipping articles from the newspaper "New York Times." Once launched on clipping poll results authors also wrote a few letters to newspapers and research organizations to obtain clarification of the news reports or additional information. But the reader should be warned that, despite these efforts, this brief review of last fall's polls is somewhat capricious and unsystematic, as of September 1, 1961. In all, some data were obtained on 36 separate measurements of electoral preference or voting intention. Of these all except one were styled polls, straw votes, or opinion surveys. Of the other 35 measurements about which minimal information is available, 14 were conducted by newspapers, 12 by commercial or academic survey agencies, and 9 for Democratic or Republican campaign groups. The percentage errors for the polls ranged from to 16.8, with the average error being 2.9.

Inventory investment is the most volatile component of aggregate demand. Its central role in business cycles has been extensively explored since the early 1950's[1] in the United States, yet for Britain only one macroeconomic study of inventory investment has been published.[2] The aim of this paper is to test some explanatory models of the inventory investment decision and to compare their forecasting performance with other forecasting instruments.
Section 2 develops theoretical models incorporating variables which represent various motivations for stockbuilding and constraints, including policy-determined constraints, on investors' behavior. It is hypothesized that the investment function differs between upswings and downswings due to cyclical variations in investors' behavior and in the impact of unplanned accumulation or depletion.
Section 3 estimates the equations from section 2, and section 4 uses some of the estimated equations to derive forecasts for the post-sample period 1967 II to 1968 IV. Their forecasting performance is compared with that of forecasts from a non-explanatory autoregressive scheme, the National Institute and the econometric equations of several U.S. studies.
Attention is limited to investment in stocks of finished goods by British manufacturers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses perfect competition and theories of price-setting behavior. Specification of the price equation generally makes appeal to both profit maximizing and average cost pricing assumptions. The choice among theories has important implications. The expected pattern of price-wage interactions, questions of bias and identification of the price equation, and use of the price equation for forecasting should all be analyzed with respect to particular hypotheses concerning pricing behavior. The need is for more explicit formulation of models and testing of hypotheses. A test of the relative explanatory power of a perfectly competitive model and a general version of average cost pricing is reported in this paper. Two supply and demand models of the final output of the manufacturing sector are specified. These show important differences in the relationship between the price level and its determinants. In perfect competition each firm takes all prices as given and determines its level of production. The production function required is that appropriate to the individual firm. Production is increased until marginal cost reaches price.

There have been a number of empirical analyses of the accuracy of economic forecasts. These studies have shown that economists have generally underestimated increases in gross national product and its components. On the other hand, when these variables declined, the predictions frequently failed to forecast these movements, thus producing turning point errors. One of the studies also indicated that forecasters were unable to "identify" cyclical peaks for some time after the occurrence of the event. For instance, while the peak preceding the 1960 recession occurred in the third quarter of 1960, none of the three sets of forecasts analyzed in this study predicted this turn in advance. The best performance was turned in by the forecasters who recognized the turn near the end of the third quarter. However, the forecasts of this set had, earlier in the third quarter, indicated that the economy would grow more rapidly in that quarter than it had in the second period. The other two sets of forecasts did not recognize the turn until the beginning or end of the fourth quarter of 1960. This paper point errors in the vicinity of cyclical peaks and troughs and will advance one hypothesis to explain why the observed errors might have occurred. This knowledge might prove useful in improving the quality of future forecasts.

This article examines the result of the study on nature of instrument instability in economic policy in the U.S. It finds out that money supply is a stable policy instrument and federal expenditures are an unstable instrument. Moreover, the A-J model indicates that the instrument of instability could render the precise achievement of goal stability in the United States. However, there are possible responses to instrument instability and one of it is to lengthen the period over which attempts to stabilize the goal variables. Furthermore, the research provided the information that the forecasting and optimal policy are to be of greatest possible benefit.

This paper introduces a new dimension to that standard. By disaggregating the dependent variable in a model of state revenue forecasting and by applying the methods of factor analysis to the resulting components, time profiles for useful sets of regressors are constructed. Such profiles aid in the improvement of the forecasting model. At the same time, they may suggest a rationale for the model's success.
The factorial review of the E-model points to improvements to be had through the inclusion of series whose behavioral profiles approximate those of six hypothetical factors. Of the six, three are dominant. Approximations to two of these already appear in the E-model; the introduction of a third, the most influential, demands achievement. Because of their smaller contributions to variance in revenues and because of their association with lesser revenue flows, the incorporation of fourth, fifth, and sixth counterparts, while worthwhile, is of considerably lower priority. In the search for responsible variables, whatever their influence, a knowledge of traits as well as of roles would be helpful. Unfortunately, the orthogonal system towards which the E-model tends is not easily comprehended. Of its factors, the one which is most pervasive is also specially enigmatic. More readily grasped, it seems, are the factor identifications growing out of an oblique factor system. Here, however, only one of the E-model's inputs has a theoretical counterpart. There are then more regressor substitutions to be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors analyze employment and economic trends associated with the aerospace industry in California as of 1968, focusing mostly on Los Angeles county. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), especially the manned space flight program, has increased the U.S. federal government's spending in the aerospace industry, keeping the industry stable. However, the state of California foresees a drop in spending by the federal government and has initiated public contracts in transportation, crime prevention, education, and pollution control in an effort to promote companies in the aerospace industry to diversify.

This article provides a demand and supply analysis for doctorates in business administration who intend to become faculty at business schools in 1967. Business schools have traditionally had problems recruiting faculty from their own discipline, generally choosing faculty trained in economics. The author forecasts the needs for further business school faculty based on prior hiring trends and surveys done of career choices of those who received doctorates of business, as well as a 1965 questionnaire which was sent to the deans of all member schools of the American Association of Collegiate Schools of Business.

The article seeks to define the relationship between per capita income and retail sales according to geographic location and to describe the limitations of income statistics when reaching these conclusions. The article distinguishes between the uses of income data, to both indicate standards of living and to determine markets for certain goods and services. The article reports a lack of correlation between the median income per family and retail sales per capita and shows the results of a study to prove this. The article compares the suburban and urban relationship of income and retail sales, but points out that while cities are largely self-sufficient (not closed), they too rely on markets beyond their geographic boundaries.

The purpose of this study is to forecast the market shares of alternative home-heating units: oil-burners, gas-burners and electric-heating units for the United States. The forecasting method used is The Markov Process with estimated transition probability matrices. The transition probabilities represent whether households will continue to use the same heating unit which they have used in the recent past or switch to another type unit. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation techniques have been used to estimate these transition probabilities from aggregate historical market shares of alternative home-heating units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides an overview of the forecasts for the social conditions of the U.S. for 1921. It is conceived that all local papers will have correspondence from the war. It is believed that it will be a crucial year for every household in the country, for every business interest, school and college, and the civic and financial life.

The Iowa State University Statistical Laboratory developed a design for local prediction of the upset in the Iowa gubernatorial contest. This experiment was conducted as an investigation of the feasibility of introducing a high degree of accuracy coupled with a reasonably simplified procedure to the forecasting of statewide election results. In order to test the accuracy with which the two estimators would predict the final percentage of the vote received by each candidate, trial runs were carried out using returns from the 1960 Iowa gubernatorial election. On the basis of the performance of the two estimators in the two-year sample, 1960 and 1962, it is tentatively concluded that the combined ratio estimator provides a reasonably accurate method of election analysis and prediction for television reporting at the local level. Analysis of this information may suggest ways to simplify the present procedure and locate bellwether precincts suitable for opinion sampling by the pollster, as well as for purposes of TV analysis and forecasting.

The article discusses how technological change affects manpower forecasts in the U.S. Technological change indirectly affects the total output of an industry by providing new or improved products or services which stimulate the demand for a particular industry's product. On the other hand, technological change directly causes industrial productivity. Technological change also affects an industry's employment structure, job content and skill composition. The following are the basic steps of forecasting the impact of technology on manpower: identification of expected technological developments; determination of the timing of introduction and rate of diffusion of the technology; and evaluation of the probable manpower effects of the developments.

Reprints an article from the January 1966 issue of 'Industrial Research,' about the projected research and development (R&D) expenditures of the United States in 1966. Need for higher levels of support for the nation's military, space and nuclear programs; Intensification of government and industrial efforts in civilian-oriented areas.

Evaluates manpower projections in the U.S, as of November 1969. Assumptions used in manpower projections; Changes in the labor force by age group; Number of women in the labor force; Industrial distribution of employment; Trends in the occupational employment.

Forecasts the manpower requirements in the United States for year 1975. Unemployment rate; Labor force requirements of several industries; Private and public sector employment.

Political scientists and others have engaged in study and conjecture as to the factors which influence an individual legislator's vote, pressure groups, weighing of the facts, personal bias, log-rolling, evaluation of national interest, and many others. Some enlightening studies have been made, but they are far from definitive. There is, as yet, no accrete descriptive and analytical studies which give assured insight into legislator motivation. In this article a limited study of sources of factual information available to members of the U.S. Congress, and the attitude of members toward these sources, is reported. Twenty U.S. Senators and eighteen Congressmen were queried in the survey, by letters delivered in person to the legislator's offices. Responses were received from 14 Senators and 13 Congressmen. The written responses were supplemented by interviews with seven legislators and with nine senior staff members of Senators and Congressmen, with staff members of Congressional Committees, the Legislative Reference Service, Executive agencies and other sources of information for the legislator.

The studies involving measurement of marital success or of factors correlated with it have been criticized on various grounds. The present study involved a check on the validity of the prediction scale presented by Ernest Burgess and Leonard Cottrell, when applied to a sample differing in composition froth that used in its original development. The author, partly as a matter of convenience, chose Akron, Ohio, as the area from which to draw the sample. Akron is an industrial city of a little less than three hundred thousand population. A sample of three hundred couples was selected from this area. The sample was found to be biased toward Protestants of North European origin. It is not claimed that the sample is completely representative of all sub-groups of Akron. However, the sampling procedure was designed to obtain a random sample of a population. The questionnaire used contained items from the Burgess-Cottrell marital adjustment scale and background items from which Burgess and Cottrell had made their prediction scale.

The article highlights that until the middle of the nineteenth century it was generally believed in the U.S. that the high prevailing rate of population growth would long continue, that the American population would eventually number some hundreds of millions and that a very large population not only could be supported with ease but was economically and socially and politically desirable. For since life was simple, wants were few, prime necessities were plentiful, and children proved economically productive at an early age, it was commonly assumed that the largeness of families and frequency of maternity, noted by many American and foreign commentators, and the growing volume of immigration would continue. The article discusses about forecasts, with several exceptions, ignored estimates for years beyond 1900. It has ignored, moreover, the nature of the ultimate limits to future population growth, as postulated by these forecasters. It finds many American writers either assuming a great population capacity for the U.S. or asserting that population pressure would eventually require expansion beyond the frontiers.

The article focuses on the prophecies of scarcity or exhaustion of natural resources in the United States. Prophecies have been more than symptoms. They have played an important part in bringing about changes in public opinion and policy by dramatizing the problems involved and putting them into more concrete and understandable terms. In addition, their study illustrates changes in the methods used in arriving at the extent of resources and in prognosticating rates of exploitation. The prophecies of exhaustion or depletion of the natural resources that have been made during the last decade show certain changes compared with earlier predictions. In general they are much less spectacular in their estimates of future rates of exploitation. According to the author, the prophets in the field of resource exhaustion or depletion have not been very accurate in their predictions. While a lack of accurate estimates either of the extent of resources or of future rates of use did not embarrass those who were interested in propaganda statements, these deficiencies made it largely impossible for the most impartial observers to forecast correctly.

The article focuses on the corn and hog industry which is one of the most fundamental enterprises in the U.S. Corn is the most important crop in the U.S. both in acreage and value. More than three-fourths of the farms included by the 1920 census reported corn. The value of corn has been greater than the combined values of wheat and cotton during nine of the eleven years from 1910 to 1921. The farm value of hogs produced for slaughter has been second to the value of corn in every year from 1910 to 1921. The Corn Belt farmer has a choice of marketing his corn direct to the primary markets as cash grain, or of marketing it through livestock. The outstanding use of corn is as a feed for animals. More than 85% is given to horses, 4% to poultry, 1% to sheep, 5.5% to stock not on farms, 1.5% is exported and 3% for other uses. The price of corn at a given time depends primarily upon the supply and supply is determined principally by the weather. The demand for corn for export and commercial uses is relatively small compared with the demand for corn as feed for livestock. The prices of the corn over a period of years depends largely upon corn production. The demand for corn is relatively inelastic.

The purpose of this article is to supplement the statistics of "the equation of exchange" for the United States published a year ago in the "American economic Review" by including the figures for 1911, and discussing the indications for the future. The equation of exchange, expressed in algebraic symbols, is MV+M'V'=PT. The estimates as calculated independently for these six magnitudes, M, M', V, V', P, T, show a remarkable self-consistency, and thus check each other's accuracy. The left aide, MV + M' V', is found to be 428 and the right side, PT, to be 420. In order to eliminate this slight discrepancy, that is, to make all six magnitudes self-consistent, the author has, as in previous years, arbitrarily corrected the original estimates. By this mutual adjustment or correction the six magnitudes are made to fulfill the equation of exchange exactly, and each magnitude is assigned its most probable value. The largest adjustment or correction was made, of course, in those magnitudes the first estimates of which were regarded as least trustworthy.

This article focuses on some of the problems facing the accounting society and suggests what the profession of accounting can do toward their future solutions. The problems are summarized as--To induce, rather than to force, business management and union labor to reach collective bargaining agreements, to save out of the flow of consumer purchasing power and corporate earnings, enough to equip with adequate tools and other capital assets, to achieve a more adequate understanding on the part of many more persons of the nature and workings of monetary system in its relationship to international and domestic commodity prices, wage rates, volume of business, volume of savings and levels of interest rates. To make progress towards something, that is a paradox and may turn out to be an impossibility. According to the author, accountants can and must play a leading role in disseminating the necessary information and knowledge and the extent to which Accountancy contributes to the necessary solution of these problems will determine the brilliance of its future.

The purpose of this study was to test instrumentality theory predictions of work effort. The theory suggests that effort exerted on an activity is a function of the probability (instrumentality) of effort leading to certain outcomes weighted by the evaluation of these outcomes. In this research the amount of effort exerted on various tasks by a group of faculty members at a large university in the United States was examined. Predictions based on instrumentality theory were tested along with predictions based on modifications of the theory. It was found that the modifications of the theory generally led to improved predictions of effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]