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This paper examines the relationship between organisation structure and management style and their influence on organisational effectiveness measured in both ‘human’ and financial terms. Account has also been taken of related contextual factors such as differences in task, size and environment of a company. Using information collected from a sample of fifty small and medium size printing and building firms the authors have elaborated a conceptual model involving the independent attributes; integration, control, task orientation and people orientation . The validity of this model has been operationally tested and examined against the background of evidence reported by other research workers on the contextual determinants of organisational structure and management style. Substantially different patterns of association between ‘organisation’ and ‘style’ and company performance are found for the two industries and an important outcome of the research has been to produce further evidence in favour of the contingency theory of organisation. The paper concludes with some implications for management practice and organisational design.

This paper examines the operations research process from the viewpoint of General Systems Theory. The components of the OR process and the relations between them are critically examined. The five components are: (1) the “reality” of the problem situation, (2) the conceptual model of the problem situation, (3) the scientific model of the conceptual model, (4) the solution to the scientific model, and (5) the implementation of the solution. The paper argues that we have sub-optimized both our knowledge (study) and our application of the OR process. That is, there have been extremely few studies and applications of OR which have concerned themselves with OR from a whole systems point of view. The paper argues that without a whole systems perspective OR can neither be understood nor effectively applied.

Analog method is commonly used by modern geographers, and we can easily earn a clear knowledge concerning this methodology, when we read a chapter of Berry and Marble's “Spa-tial Analysis” (1968) . titled as “Geography and Analog Theory”. written by R. J. Chorley (originally appeared on A. A. A. G. 54. 1964). Analog theory is not a methodology recently discovered by modern geographers, but a research method that has a long history, and we cannot forget to mention the names of classic human ecologists, hark, Burgess, and others, as among the ancestors who adapted this method to regional study. This paper attempts to examine how far applicable this methodology is to geographic survey. Chorley, the author. of “Geography and Analog Theory”, distinguishes “model” and “theory”, According to him, a model can only be right or wrong on the logical ground, but a theory must be accepted or rejected on the basis of how well it works when it is applied to the examination of read world. And it is theory that analog method has concern with. A process needed for the metamorphosing “model” into “theory” is divided by Chorley into 6 steps, A 1, A 2, ……A 6 At the first step (A 1), geographer faces to the “segments of the real world”, These segments must be “idealized” into “conceptual model” (A 2), which, on the course of making up a theory, must be “simplified” into more abstract model, called “simplified model” (A 3). Sometimes, when the reasoning process has been at all successfully pursued, the model A 3 can be regarded as the final product. But, generally speaking, simplified model can not always regarded satisfactory as a theory, and so, steps A 4, A 5 are needed. It is on these reasoning steps A 4 and A 5, that Chorley insists on the usefulness of app-lying analog method. Indeed such methods as “mathematical method”, “experimental method” are also valuable for the treatment of steps A 4 and A 5, but what Chorley lay emphasis on by the publishing of his paper is the usefulness of analog method. Analogically, one can pick up only some aspects of the complicated real web of relation-ships and reproduce more simple but clear structure ; or one can translate the coplicated real relationships into any other analogous reality. So long as analog is safely finded out, investi-gation on analog instead of complicated original structure makes the pursuit of A 4 and A 5 possible. But, for all the usefulness of analog method, it seems to me that this method is most dangerous way to adapt for regional study. It is dangerous because, as Chorley himself men-tioned, it often introduces “noise” on the process of translating analogically one relationship into another structure. Earlier human ecologists left us some examples of logical fault led by failure of transla-ting real world into “analog”. As analogs of human society, human ecologists applied bio-community or physical structure of an organism : and though they succeeded in clarifying the vague structure of metropolis by the analogical seasonings, when another scientists were at a loss to know how to deal with so called “million city”, an unknown complicated social pheno-menon of that days, human ecologists' adaptation of analog method prevented them from pre-cise analysis of metropolitan social organization and regional structure.

At the present time the subject of extensible languages appears to suffer from the lack of any central coherent framework to knit together the many pieces of individual work that are being done. This paper is an attempt, therefore, to fill that lack. What appears to be required is some central conceptual model or paradigm of languages and language extensibility onto which framework we can hang all these pieces of work. This paper, therefore, contains of four main points:- * The description of a very simple model of formal machine languages and their operation. * A discussion of the generality of this model. * A discussion of the usefulness of this model for the study of extensible languages. * An illustration of the application of the model by reference to an on-going implementation at the IBM (UK) Scientific Centre.

In a paper completed some three years ago, "On Place Utility and the Normative Allocation of Intra-Urban Migrants" (Brown, Horton, and Wittick, 1970), a linear programming model of intra-urban migration was presented. This model was designed to operationalize concepts put forth in an earlier conceptual model (Brown and Moore, 1970); these are principally ones relating to the role of aspirations and search in the residential site selection process. The interpretation of the dual of this model proved to be interesting in that it linked household aspiration and search behaviors to place utility, a concept that has received much attention in the intraurban migration literature but has proved difficult to operationalize (Brown and Longbrake, 1970). Casetti objects to this work on two accounts, the more noteworthy of which concerns the interpretation of the model's dual variables as place utilities. This needs to be examined more closely since in our view the model is a useful and informative one, and its elaboration constitutes the major thrust of our paper. The primal portion of the model allocates migrant households to va.cancies so as to minimize the "search effort for a place i household to identify (or find) a vacancy at place j" (p. 178) (.aij*), while maximizing "the level of return or satisfaction which is likely to accrue to a place i household were it to relocate to a vacancy in place j" (p. 178), both for the total migrant population. In operationalization the aspiration factor is measured by an index (dij) in which "lower numbers indicate combinations of origin and destination zone types which are more satisfactory in terms of the aspiration sets of migrant households" (p. 180), so that the model actually minimizes the total cost (c+j), aij*dij. "Thus migrant households will be allocated among O-D zones such as to minimize their search effort and their dissatisfaction with respect to a new residence site" (p. 180). Clearly, there is some confusion in the Brown-Horton-Wittick article over the definition of dij. Casetti interprets it as a measure of satisfaction ("the smaller the dij the more the aspirations of a migrant from zone i match the characteristics of zone j"), rather than as an aspiration factor. We feel similarly, except that because of the way in which dij varies, the model is made most clear by interpreting it as measuring the "dissatisfaction with respect to a new residence site". This will be used below in our response to Casetti's comments on the model's dual variables. A useful rationale for our interpretation of the dual is presented in Stevens's (1961) treatment of location rent in a linear programming context. Paraphrasing his argument, let pij be the gain or the increase in place utility in migrating from i to j and

The MV Tampa incident in 2001 involving refugees was a watershed in public opinion in New Zealand. Refugees and their right to claim asylum created a great deal of debate There is public disquiet regarding the diverse backgrounds of refugees and their reliance on the welfare system. Official data shows that 86 percent of refugees are still unemployed after five years residency in New Zealand (JR McKemzie Trust 2004). As a result of Public concern at the high level of state dependency amongst refugees, creating alternative avenues of economic independence has become the focus of government and NGO action. The transition of refugees to becoming enterpreneurs and small busness owners is one way of escaping both welfare dependence and the discriminatory views of many employers. However, the nature of this assistance and how successful these programmes have een are still unknown. In addition, whilst current literature recognizes indigenous, ethnic and minority entrepreneurs there is still little mention of the entrepreneurial activities of refugees in New Zealand. The aim of this paperis to add the literature on centrepreneuship as well as advancing the literature from the traditional focus on refugees “plight” to their attributes as entrepreneurs and small business owners. The paper commences with a critique of the relevant literature and arrives at a set of synergistic dfiniions. A conceptual model on refugee integration and transition as developed by Valtonen (2004:87), together with the Human Capabilities Framework (Tipples 2004) are used as platforms to develop a new framework. The paper presents preliminary on the type of assistance available to refugees in New Zealand. The paper concludes with a summary of the key barriers facing refugees in becoming entrepreneurs.

This Memorandum presents a conceptual model and a mathematical method for computing the physiological fluid and electrolyte distribution for selected body compartments of an average, young, 70-kilogram human male. The mathematical procedure simulates the physiological subsystems by incorporating all the known chemical reactions and electrochemical relations which seem necessary to establish the fluid and electrolyte distribution. Because the whole body is being considered, the relatively large number of computations required argues that a computer be employed, The construction of the model and the mathematical background is given in heuristic form only, with reference to earlier papers for rigorous development. However, considerable detail is shown regarding the analysis of the computed results for a standard, steady-state, average, young, resting, 70-kg human male. Finally, the results of validation experiments, consisting of chemical stresses applied to the model, are discussed. In some cases, these results are compared with similar experiments in the biological literature, but in others reference is made to a companion paper by G. B. Bradham, et al. (1), in which particular laboratory validation experiments are described in detail. The results of these experiments indicate that the model is a valid supplementary tool for research in the clinical and the research laboratory as well as in theoretical physiology.

This paper examines the problem of measuring the relationship between movement patterns and the location of activities within the city centre. Emphasis is placed on the problem of defining and analysing complex linkage systems. Data on taxi flows are presented as a single indicator of multi-faceted functional linkages within Central London. Cartographic analysis reveals a complex pattern of flows; correlation and factor analysis are therefore applied to the data to determine the underlying structure of the taxi-flow system. Traffic zones are compared in terms of the zones from which they receive trips; high factor loadings reveal groups of zones receiving trips from common origins; the related factor scores specify these origins. Linking groups of origins and destinations on a map reveals five functional regions. Hierarchical grouping of zones produces an objective classification of zones in terms of similarities in linkage characteristics. Comparison of the pattern of functional regions with familiar structural regions suggests a basic isomorphism between such regionalizations. More important, the analysis reveals the usefulness of the methods for investigating the structure of complex flow systems so as to specify the principal groups of observations and the linkages they have in common. THE CLOSE connection between movement and the distribution of activities in spatial systems is a well-established geographical axiom. At the national level B. J. L. Berry has used multivariate statistical procedures to measure the relationships between the state of a system, expressed in terms of the distribution of productive activities, and the behaviour of that system, expressed in the form of commodity flows between various places.1 He has structured these relationships within the framework of a general field theory of spatial behaviour, in which the pattern of flows, summarized as a set of functional regions, is held to be both a resultant and a determinant of the spatial distribution of activities, summarized as a set of uniform regions.2 Berry's formulation is in some ways a more general statement of A. K. Philbrick's principle of'areal functional organization'.3 Similarly, O. Wameryd, in his conceptual model of the urban system, has stressed the importance of functional interdependencies in explaining changes in the state of the system.4 It would be reasonable to assume that the interdependence of flows and spatial structure also holds within urban areas, in particular within large metropolitan centres. However, at this level the measurement of the relationships involved creates numerous conceptual, empirical and technical problems, many of which are insuperable at the present time. While several studies of city centre structure have emphasized the role of 'linkages' between highly specialized activities as a determinant of location, little progress has been made in measuring these linkages. 5 Most rrevious research has focused on the distribution of activities; linkages have then been inferred from locational associations among these activities.6 For instance, within the financial core of the City of London, multivariate analysis of detailed employment data has highlighted the existence of distinctive spatial clusters of offices whose composition closely reflects the wellknown functional organization of the City.7 Within the broader compass of the London Central Area, floorspace data have suggested a number of sub-areas with distinctive land-use combinations.8 I6I This content downloaded from 157.55.39.35 on Wed, 31 Aug 2016 04:35:39 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms According to Berry's general field theory formulation, such pronounced spatial differentiation within city centres should simultaneously be determined by, and call forth, a correspondingly structured pattern of movement. Yet very few studies have been made of physical linkage patterns in the city centre, in relation to the activities that generate and attract these movements. In part this is because of data difficulties. While detailed information can be collected on the distribution of activities, a corresponding breakdown of movement patterns associated with each of these activities would require extensive surveys. More important, linkages frequently involve information flows that are extremely difficult to differentiate, that use a variety of communication channels and which often do not involve obvious physical movements.9 Some of these difficulties can be by-passed by considering only physical movements of a given type, as a single indicator of multi-faceted functional linkages. But even then, observed movement patterns are extremely complex. It is therefore the object of this paper to suggest a method for analysing the complex linkage structures that are represented by movement patterns in the city centre. As the first stage in the scientific description of any complex pattern involves the development of a classificatory framework, numerical taxonomic procedures are applied to observed patterns of flows. This yields a more readily appreciated series of functional regions that can be compared with uniform regions derived from a similar analysis of activity distributions. The Data and Study Area For the purposes of this paper, the movements of taxis within Central London have been taken as the best available single indicator of functional linkages. Of the principal travel modes, the use of taxis is most characteristic of the Central Area; in fact, 55 per cent of all taxi trips in Greater London both begin and end in the centre. 10 However, taxis still represent only one type of communication and the subsequent analysis is therefore forced to ignore linkages maintained on foot, by private vehicles, public transport, telephone and post. The Registrar General's definition of the Central Area for the I96I census is taken as the limit for the study area, which for practical purposes has to be regarded as a closed system (Fig. i). This area was subjectively extracted from the existing administrative framework by aggregating enumeration districts to provide an additional unit for collecting future census and planning data. Defined in this way, the Central Area includes an area of 28 km2, which is much larger than the Central Business District defined using R. E. Murphy and J. A. Vance's criteria.11 In fact, the Central Area includes both C.B.D. 'core' and 'frame' using E. M. Horwood and R. R. Boyce's terminology, thus containing the main-line rail termini, which are major generators of taxi traffic. 12 The data were collected in I962 as part of the London Traffic Survey. They are based on journey logs kept by an effective 10 per cent sample of all cabs registered in the Survey Area for one week in July.13 As the logs were completed by taxi drivers, the data failed to differentiate trips according to passenger's journey purpose. An additional shortcoming of the data from the linkage standpoint is that non-fare paying trips (that is, trips made between setting down one passenger and picking up another) are not excluded. Because drivers tend to cruise back into the areas where most trips are generated, the major nodes in the system could be over-emphasized. Both of these limitations are overcome in a second survey of taxi usage conducted in July I969 as part of a Home Office investigation into the London taxicab trade. Trip origins and destinations determined from the logs have been assigned to seventy I62 J. B. GODDARD This content downloaded from 157.55.39.35 on Wed, 31 Aug 2016 04:35:39 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms FUNCTIONAL REGIONS IN CENTRAL LONDON FIGURE I-London Central Area FIGURE 2-Traffic zones traffic zones in the Central Area and averaged to give 24-hour weekday flows. All but eight of the zones consist of aggregations of enumeration districts delineated with due consideration of land-use characteristics. The remaining eight zones comprise sections of major shopping streets, for example, Oxford Street (three zones) and Piccadilly (two zones) (Fig. 2). i63 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.35 on Wed, 31 Aug 2016 04:35:39 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

For the clinician, the validity of a test or assessment technique resides in the range and structural clarity of the information it provides him about the individual client with whom he works. 2 devices, for example, might be equal in forecasting a particular criterion, yet differ widely in their personological implicatons. Analysis of this problem permits specification of 3 levels of evaluation: primary, secondary, and tertiary. The conceptual model defined by these levels would appear to incorporate the kind of information which the diagnostician desires, and which indeed he must have if he is to function in an insightful and fully professional manner. The purpose of this paper is to offer a point of view concerning the meaning of measurement in psychology. Attention is centered on the use or application of such measures, and what they tell the interpreter about the individual who has been tested. Significant prior discussions of the validity issue in testing and diagnosis have sought to classify tests according to the criteria employed in their construction and evaluation (cf. Cronbach & Meehl, 1955), and to specify ways in which discriminations may be sharpened (cf. Campbell & Fiske, 1959). These emphases are important, but nevertheless do not touch on all of the significant facets of meaning subsumed under the concept of validity. The intention here is to present a different perspective, one which stresses the implications of any scale or variable when it is brought to bear upon the analysis of the individual case. From this perspective, the practitioner in testing seeks variables which permit individuated descriptions of the subject who has been tested, forecasts of what he will say or do

The major concern of this paper is predicting decision-maker momentum to change product and service offerings in response w significant uncertainties as an antecedent to organizational change. From a survey of organizations in the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA), data were obtained on decision-makers 'perceived uncertainties, and intent or momentum to change offerings in response to uncertainty created by the U.S. Customs Modernization and Informed Compliance Act of 1993 (Mod Act). Survey measures include uncertainties, organization revenue and age, decision-maker age and experience, technological expertise, formal planning and formalization of procedures. The regression results indicate that organization revenue, decision-maker age and Mod Act uncertainty were associated with the NCBFAA customs brokers' momentum to change offerings in response to Mod Act uncertainty. Because the survey can be adapted for industry-specific uncertainties, we propose the survey, model and its results can be used by decisionmakers of organizations within dynamic industries as they seek to realign to a new industry environment. Introduction The organizational transformation process is usually regarded as a deliberate effort of an organization to move from a current to a desired organizational state to better 'fit" with a dynamic industry environment (Mukherji, Desai, & Francis, 1999). Researchers (Bamford, Rogers, & Miller, 1999; Lieberson & O'Connor, 1972) maintain that beliefs and expectations of the dominant coalition (i.e., CEO, president, top management, and board members) are formalized based on their perception of what environmental phenomena are relevant for the health of the organization. In their study of antecedents for organizational change, Bamford et al. (1999) found that change in the dominant coalition is a significant antecedent to organizational change. This body of work shows the importance of decision-maker perceptions. Additionally, Hamel and Prahalad's (1989) research on strategic intent, Child's (1972) research linking strategic choice and strategic response, and Hitt and Tyler's (1991) argument that decision-makers use a set of objective criteria from the organization's external and internal environment to decide on an intended strategy, provide evidence that strategic intent can be seen as a first step to organizational change. Based on this body of work, we propose that predicting decision-maker momentum to change offerings in response to environmental uncertainty may be seen as an antecedent for organizational change. Dutton and Duncan's "Strategic Issue Diagnosis" conceptual model (1987) provides the theoretical framework for the empirical model. Dutton and Duncan's conceptual model focuses on how decision-makers' perceptions of uncertainties and response feasibility may generate a strong or weak momentum for organizational change. In their work, they argue that decision-makers may recognize an uncertainty as significant for their organization's health. However, if response feasibility (i.e., resource availability and decision-maker risk propensity) is low, the overall momentum for organizational change may be low. Furthering Dutton and Duncan's (1987) conceptual work, we develop and test an integrative model (Rajagopalan & Spreitzer, 1996) to predict decision-maker momentum to change offerings in response to environmental and firm structure uncertainties. We also identify the specific environmental uncertainties and organization characteristics from those included in the model that are significantly related to decision-maker momentum to change offerings in response to environmental uncertainty. Moreover, Burgelman and Doz (1997) discuss the importance of models/tools decision-makers can use in performing complex strategic integration (CSI). According to Burgehnan and Doz, more decision-makers are utilizing complex strategic integration tools in the development of corporate strategies to exploit new growth opportunities and better utilize knowledge resources across business units. …

It is the purpose of this paper to report efforts to construct a model characterizing physical activity as a sociopsychological phenomenon. The work was based upon the assumptions that physical activity can be reduced to more specific components, i.e., a set of all physical activities can be reduced to logical subsets; and that a meaningful basis for such a procedure is the instrumental value physical activity is perceived to have for the individual. A rationale is given for each of the six dimensions of the model. In addition to construct validity, the integrity of the model was assessed by determining the degree of univocality and independence of the postulated subdomains. I

The need for improved management of health care in the United States is evidenced by recent trends and the current state of the nation's health. Many systems and methodologies for aiding health care management have been proposed. However, at this relatively early stage of development, most approaches are either highly conceptual or restricted to unique conditions, thereby having little utility for general application. This paper first defines a conceptual model of the health care system and then develops a generalized management planning model which is designed to be applicable to a broad class of health care programs. Following this, the described methodologies are applied to a specific health care program, the Cervical Cancer Detection Program of South Texas, and the general model is used to derive a computerized resource planning model for a major subsystem of the program. The findings derived from the experimental application of the methodology are discussed in terms of (1) the mechanics of the resource planning model, (2) the use of the resource planning model as an aid to management planning, (3) the adaptability of the resource planning model to similar health care programs and (4) the applicability of the systems methodology and the generalized model to various types of health care programs.

This paper describes the application of a modern theory of decision-making and computer technology to the process of juve ni !e probation decision-making. It is based on approximately four years of research, in three phases: 1. A conceptual model of the juvenile probation process in California was developed that specified the major treatment and disposition points for probation officers. 2. A comprehensive follow-up study was made on 2,290 juve niles referred to probation departments in seven California coun ties. Background and personal information and complete proba tion records over a one-year period were gathered for each juvenile to predict what would happen to him as a result of background characteristics and what disposition-placement alternative he would receive. Two prediction criteria were used: (a) recidivism (the number of repeat offenses) and (b) behavior "improvement- deterioration" (the score on a scale that described each juvenile's behavior after the probation process as improved, staying the same, or getting worse). A conditional probability model to pre dict these criteria on the basis of the information variables was developed and tested. 3. Using the information and results of phase 2, an "on-line" computer system. was developed to aid probation officers to make decisions and recommendations about various treatments for individual youngsters. This system allows information relevant to each youth to be combined and presented to the officer on his request. One component of this system is a Bayesian decision model, designed to reduce the uncertainty of the probation decision-maker by allowing him to select whatever disposition- treatment alternative will have the highest probability of success.

This paper has described a new conceptual model of instructional management that has found utility in the analysis and design of the instructional components in educational systems of varying complexity. In the opinion of the authors, it is likely that a revolution in the quality of education will not come from the availability of new media, the introduction of any specific devices like the computer or teaching machine, the introduction of improved evaluation methods, the specification of behavior objectives, or the development of effective motivational subsystems, although all of these will, in their way, contribute. Instead, a radical change in the quality of American education will come from the increased application of the growing body of knowledge about the form, purpose, and processes involved in instructional decision making.

There are many professionals who are predicting the eventual demise of community mental health because of a failure to develop a relevant conceptual model for community intervention. It remains the position of this paper that behavior theory offers the potential for conceptualizing the individual's interaction with his environment. Further, the behaviorally oriented mental health worker has several choices of intervention available to him. These models or choices are described and recommendations for the enhancement of community mental health service delivery are presented.

The paper is focused on the conceptual model of the distance learning course (DLC) “Success” aimed at the development of psychological competencies. The course was developed on the basis of design technology method and intended for adults that are in need of psychological competencies development, i.e. inhabitants of villages, towns, people with special needs, university faculty, trainers and social workers, educators, who want to use DLC in the process of psychological competencies development that are the result in enhancement of life quality. The structure of the distance learning course “Success” and underlying principles is described.

Virtual worlds are three-dimensional, computer-generated worlds that are a natural extension of the existing Internet. Although many businesses are jumping on the bandwagon to maintain a presence in virtual worlds, there is no well-established knowledge or theory to guide businesses in their involvement in these environments. In this paper, we identify affordances in the virtual worlds that can be used to increase the state of flow experienced in a business virtual site, which in turn may enhance brand equity, or the perceived added value of a brand to customers. We present a conceptual model that can be used to guide future research and industry practice on business implications of the virtual worlds.

Professor Burns has made a number of interesting comments on our paper dealing with profits in the aerospace industry. Essentially, they fall into two categories: (1) statements about the inadequacy of the statistics with which we worked and (2) disagreement with the conceptual model we advanced to frame our hypotheses. As to his remarks concerning the problems of inadequate data, we simply note that operating as "unprivileged" outsiders we have used the data at hand to test a set of hypotheses which we feel emerge from the general theory of price determination in the defense contracting business. Admittedly, with more perfect data we might find different conclusions. However, these data are not available, and Burns does not present any compelling argument to suggest a bias in the data we have used which would lead to the conclusions we reached. His only suggestion along this line is that there is a systematic time drift in aerospace profits which creates the illusion that profits before taxes and renegotiation increased after the establishment of the Renegotiation Board. His rationale for this increase is a systematic shift toward commercial business as opposed to government business. This is an interesting possibility but reasonable only if the evidence shows that profits after taxes and renegotiation also increased coincidentally with the establishment of the board. Otherwise, the implication is that the Renegotiation Board not only has vigorously renegotiated away excess profits in the government business sector but has also zealously guarded the public welfare by renegotiating away the additional profits that were the result of the shift toward the commercial sector. In Burns's favor is the fact that his interpretation would be consistent with the results we obtain in the net-worth regression for Group II companies. Otherwise, the evidence does not support his argument. We would also note that while the evidence in this one case is consistent with his proposition, it does not follow that it is inconsistent with ours. Consequently, we would merely note that Burns's possible explanation for a persistent bias in

This paper develops a definition and conceptual model of violence against children on the basis of a series of nationwide epidemiologic studies, public opinion, and press surveys. Culturally sanctioned use of physical force in child rearing, poverty and discrimination, deviance in bio-psycho-social functioning, and chance events are identified as causal dimensions of physical child abuse. The scope of the phenomenon and selected findings from the surveys are discussed and social policies aimed at primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention are suggested. Attention is drawn to massive societal abuse of children, which is a related but much more serious social problem.

EPIDEMIOLOGY has proved useful in the study and prevention of accidents of various types as well as epidemics of communicable diseases. Disasters may be defined arbitrarily a,s epidemics of accidents in which 25 or more people are seriously injured or killed. Therefore it seems reasonable to believe that when the epidemiology of various kinds of natural disasters is known many of them can also be predicted and prevented or at least controlled (1). Moreover an epidemiologic analysis of the disaster provides a sound basis for public health program planning. The word epidemiology, derived from the Greek epi (on or upon) and demos (the people) implies something inflicted upon the people. Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, as well as diseases, fit this definition. At 10:51 p.m. on September 1, 1962, an earthquake devastated part of the Central Plateau of Iran, a country which suffered motre than 115 major earthquakes from 1904 to 1961. A detailed report of this catastrophe by Saidi (2) is used in this paper as a basis for examination of the epidemiologic approach to public health planning for a natural disaster. It should be made clear that we did not have firsthand observation of the Iranian earthquake. This earthquake was merely used as a conceptual model to illustrate the epidemiology of a natural disaster. Epidemiologists conveniently classify three major types of factors which influence the incidence of a disease-agent factors, host factors, and environmental factors. In natural disasters, the agent would be the factor producing the actual injury or disease; the hosts would be human beings and to a lesser extent animals; and environmental factors, the physical, chemical, biological, and social climates in which a disaster occurs. The epidemiologist initially takes three steps in investigating an epidemic: (a) He confirms the diagnosis. Was there an earthquake and if so, was it a major or a minor one? (b) He determines if there is an epidemic. Was there a disaster killing or seriously injuring 25 or more people? (c) The epidemiologist next characterizes the epidemic as to time, place, and the victims. When did the earthquake take place, how large an area was affected, how much damage was done, approximately how many people were injured, dead, or missing, and what are the immediate needs of the survivors? This type of community diagnosis is essential for intelligent public health program planning and is needed as soon as possible. Like diseases, disasters have definite patterns, so that a knowledge about their usual characteristics may prove valuable. For example, in earthquakes fractures and crushing wounds are the usual types of injuries if seicondary fires have not caused burns and tidal waves have not caused people to drown. Information on the occurrence, duration, direction, and intensity of an earthquake can be obtained through seismograph reports as well as by telephone, radio, and wireless. In the Dr. Parrish is associate professor, Dr. Baker is assistant professor, and Dr. Bishop is associate professor in the department of community health and medical practice, University of Missouri School of Medicine, Columbia.

In the present work and in two previously published papers,' Wilcox states that he has developed a prediction model which provides a theoretical explanation of some of the prediction success of Beaver2 through explicit consideration of the variance of cash flows. In the present empirical tests of his model, Wilcox claims to achieve "substantial" improvement over the prediction success of Beaver's ratio with the best predictions-the cash flow/total debt (CF/TD) ratio. In evaluating the present work, one could discuss the model at the conceptual level. Such an approach might prove fruitful since the way in which the gambler's ruin model has been put into operation contains some arbitrary choices and also presents some interesting statistical questions concerning the small number of observations per firm and the stability of the parameters of the model (especially for the failed firms). However, such a conceptual approach will not be taken for two reasons. First, the model has already been presented twice before in essentially the same form: the new feature of the present work is the addition of the empirical data to test the predictive ability of the model. Second, an evaluation of the conceptual model may not be necessary. Beaver's CF/ TD ratio method was a simple, one-year (deterministic) model and yet

In recent years the concept of ‘digital economy’ is present in the economy and practical activities of many countries. Modern information technologies were able not only to transform methods of data collection, transformation, storage and processing to obtain new knowledge, but also to influence economic processes, including the principles of interaction of economic agents. Producers and the end users, state structures and business entities can contact, bypassing long chains of intermediaries. The penetration of digital technologies into life is one of the characteristic features of the future world. Agro-industrial business, which is a strategic segment of the Russian economy and has a significant export potential, cannot stay away from world trends. The article presents the concept of managing the development of agro-industrial clusters as self-organizing structures of agro-industrial business that are able to integrate the activities of small and medium-sized businesses into the value-added chain using modern information technologies. The paper discloses the mandatory and supporting tools and mechanisms for implementing the concept aimed at eliminating the problems existing in the way of agro-industrial cluster formation. The definition of the term ‘agro-industrial cluster’ has been clarified; the notion of ‘digital agribusiness cluster’ has been introduced into circulation. The conceptual model of a digital cluster as the main tool for cluster members’ collaboration is presented.

It is apparent that recent contributions to the literature dealing with conversion reactions are derived from a variety of premises. For our continuing study of conversion phenomena, we decided to examine critically some of the implicit and explicit assumptions of current writers, in order to evolve a conceptual model which would be useful to us as a working theory. The present paper is a statement of our current viewpoint, with comments on positions of other contributors. Historic and Semantic Considerations The now partially discarded term "hysteria" long outlived the Hippocratic concept denoting a clinical condition caused by the wandering uterus or by some variation of this (i.e., the engorged uterus, uterine "suffocation," or "furor"). Charcot's 11 conception of hysteria (apparently still with some vestigial influence in continental psychiatry) implicitly accepted Morel's theory of nervous degeneration and led him to stress the presence