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A sample of 147 men drawn from the workers in a pulp mill was compared with one of 124 men from a paper mill. The former included those exposed to chlorine and to sulphur dioxide. No significant differences were found in respiratory symptoms or in simple tests of ventilatory function in the two samples, but men working in chlorine had a somewhat poorer respiratory function and more shortness of breath than those working in sulphur dioxide. The working population of both mills together had a lower prevalence of respiratory disease than that of the male population of Berlin, N.H., previously studied, suggesting that working populations may not be representative of the general population. Further, a low prevalence of disease in a working population exposed to pollutants may not indicate their `safety9 in general populations.

THE study of animal haemoglobin types is developing rapidly and the results obtained in various species have recently been summarized by Huisman, van der Helm, Visser and van Vliet1. However, the electrophoretic mobility of hippopotamus haemoglobin does not seem to have been studied before, possibly because of scarcity of materials. We have had the opportunity to examine haemoglobin samples from the East African hippopotamus, Hippopotamus amphibius L.2, obtained during a controlled reduction in a hippopotamus population.

Professor Leahy, in an effort to complement the traditional functions of public expenditures, i.e. allocation, distribution and stabilization, pro? poses another function that the government should perform.1 In all its functions the government must recognize the spatial dimensions of our economy in order to improve the quantitative and qualitative aspects of man and his society. The issue of public expenditures raised in this paper deals not only with what but also with where and why public expendi? tures should be allocated. He seems to favor balanced regional economic growth and progress, or, as I shall refer to it, a "balanced public ex? penditure" concept. I do not object to the validity of Professor Leahy's thesis?that "public expenditures?their nature and impact?must be quickly and efficiently reoriented." Unfortunately, however, there is very little in? formation available on the geographic distribution and impact of federal taxing and spending. Such information is essential before an efficient reorientation of public expenditures can be implemented. According to the National Industrial Conference Board, "the diffi? culties in developing such information are staggering and require not only a large amount of statistical sorting and reclassification of budget data by state, but also numerous economic assumptions on the shifting and incidence of federal taxing and spending."2 Some federal payments are difficult to trace geographically. The real initial impact of a defense payment is at the headquarters of the defense contractor which may be in a state other than that of the defense plant. Moreover, a prime contractor may pass on parts of the original defense order to one or more variously located subcontractors. The only study that traced and allocated, state by state, the regional impact of federal taxing and spending was that developed by the Legis? lative Reference Service of the Library of Congress for the fiscal years 1965-67. The analysis was cast mainly in terms of broad indexes based on national per capita averages of federal taxing and spending. Twenty three states with 35 percent of the country's population received per capita federal outlays within reasonably close range of national average ($590). Thirteen states with 44 percent of the population fell short of 119

In a recent paper Weiss (1965) has suggested a simple model for a carrier-borne epidemic such as typhoid. He considers a population (of size m) of susceptibles into which a number (k) of carriers is introduced. These carriers exhibit no overt symptoms and are only detectable by the discovery of infected persons. He supposed that after the initial introduction of the carriers, the population remains entirely closed and no new carriers arise. The epidemic then progresses until either all the carriers have been traced and isolated or until the entire population has succumbed to the disease.

My general observations, though prepared with reference to both Dr. Cardon's and Dr. Notestein's papers, are all relevant to the latter. First let me summarize a few of their points that deserve emphasis. (1) The demographic world is not "one world," but a mnixed aggregate of many peoples who differ widely in respect of population increase, standards and levels of living, economic potentials, political stability, and other important factors. (2) As in the past 50 years, rates of population growth in the next 50 will differ strikingly, and change over time, in these various groups of people. We must beware of any form of "globaloney." (3) The world's economic potential, and specifically the potential increase in supplies of food and other wanted goods, is truly enormous, far beyond the ideas of former years; and these potentials can safely be expected to rise. (4) The extent to which such potentials will be realized in the several population units is wholly unpredictable, since no one can safely forecast how widely or effectively the various procedures will be employed. (5) The potential increase of population is also enormous, in many specific areas and in the world as a whole. (6) The size of the world's population in the year 2000 is unpredictable, but this is of no real consequence. As Dr. Notestein clearly implies, it will surely exceed 2,646 million, the upper "asymptote" of Pearl's logistic curve of 1936, unless catastrophes far greater than World War II interfere. But even a figure above 3,000 million should scare no one. What is important is the level of living of whatever numbers there may be. Next let me add a few points on which Dr. Notestein and Dr. Cardon might agree with me. (1) The extent to which realized increases in production will (a) be dissipated in defense, warfare, or otherwise, or (b) mainly promote population increase, or (c) be somehow divided between population increase and higher per capita consumption, is unpredictable for the world as a whole. At most, something can tentatively be said about the prospects in some areas. (2) In the future as in the past, some peoples will enlarge their pro

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were sampled in a wilderness area of Southern Ontario in 1965, 1966, and 1967. Serological evidence of Leptospira pomona and L. grippotyphosa infection was found. Leptospirosis has not depressed the deer population. There was a positive correlation between age and reactor rate. Paper disc-absorbed whole blood has been tested comparatively with fluid serum and found to be a useful tool for field serological surveys.

Summary The author discusses some of the points raised by Mr Karmel in his paper on the Relations between Male and Female Reproduction Rates (Population Studies, vol. I, no. 3, pp. 249–74). He considers some of the reasons for the discrepancies between male and female reproduction rates, and shows that this matter of discrepancies is connected with the problem of male and female nuptiality. He also considers the possibility of calculating a ‘unique’ measure of the true rate of increase, which does not involve inconsistencies of the type discussed by Mr Karmel. Finally, he criticizes the method used by Mr Karmel for calculating the net fertility of marriage and suggests a method which would eliminate the ambiguities of Mr Karmel's measures.

The progressive rates of mortality, from birth to extreme old age, in a given number of any population, are known from the proportionate numbers who die at the different ages. This is the only mode of estimating correctly the expectation or conceived “security” of life at any given age—viz., by showing the chance which an individual has of living a certain number of years or shorter periods.

THE accelerating pace of technology in recent years is a fact of common knowledge. The most significant manifestation of it is the growing mountain of technical information spewed forth by the printing presses. Matching this expansion is a rapidly growing scientific and technical population, which, in the United States, has doubled from perhaps 300 000 in 1930 to over 600 000 in 1950, and then doubled again to a little less than 1 200 000 today.

A close review of the two very excellent papers by Professors Bilkey and Gibbons encourages us to compare the problems of the South in the United States with those of the Caribbean area and Latin America. All three constitute underdeveloped areas and have many of the same seri? ous problems to solve to improve their economies and overcome poverty conditions. Of the 34 million U.S. poor, 44% live in the South. Furthermore, almost one-third of all families and more than 55% of the unattached in? dividuals in the South live in poverty. The current problem of poverty in the South is of extreme impor? tance to the region and to the United States as a whole. The South was, to a high degree, an agricultural and economic colony of the industrial North and East for many years and this situation helped to keep per capita incomes at a considerably lower level than in other regions of the nation. Also, a large percentage of the Southern population has con? sisted of people whose cultural, economic, social and political progress in the past has been particularly retarded by a number of factors, among them: (1) too great a dependence upon agriculture and, particularly, on a few cash crops such as cotton, for income; (2) a lack of Southern capital funds for industrial development; (3) a lack of educational and training facilities for both whites and non-whites; (4) a desire on the part of some Southern business and political leaders to maintain the status quo economically, politically, and otherwise; (5) discriminatory freight rates which reacted to the economic disadvantage of the South; and (6) comparatively low wages and incomes received by workers in the South which curtailed their purchasing power and their opportunity to give their children the higher education they needed to improve their cultural, economic, social and political status. The Old Southern, Cotton Economy per se has gone, but conditions of poverty in Southern United States still retard thousands of descen? dants of the old farm sharecroppers and other uneducated and unskilled Southern workers. And it is unfortunately true that in the South, as

This paper summarizes some of the material contained in a report titled, "Traffic Generation and Distribution of Weekend Recreational Trips." A regression model for the prediction of weekend trips to an Indiana State Park was developed and is included in this paper. The model contains ten variables found to be the most important in the prediction model. The variables are measures of the size, facilities and activities in the park and the population adjacent to the park. The results of this research provide considerable information on the traffic generation potential of an existing or proposed recreational area. Such information is vital in the planning of related transportation facilities in the area of the recreational site.

The tremendous increase in population and vehicle registration within the United States in recent years has created traffic snarls which are threatening to strangle many urban areas. An attempt to alleviate this congestion problem in the central portion of small to medium sized cities frequently has included the construction of by-pass routes which skirt the periphery of a city. Kokomo, Indiana was faced with this congestion problem, and in 1950 a by-pass facility east of the city was opened to traffic. Initially the U.S. 31 By-pass satisfactorily served its intended purpose of conveniently and safely routing the through traffic around Kokomo, but the "long-range" usefulness of the by-pass for this purpose appears to be decreasing because of Increased travel times and a large Increase in accidents. The Kokomo By-pass, unfortunately, was constructed with little or no control of access. The purpose of the investigation, which served as the basis for this paper, was to study the long-range effects of a by-pass with little or no control of access. The study included an analysis of traffic volumes, travel times, accidents, land use, land value, and an investigation of the properties which were partially taken for the right-of-way of the improvement. The primary purpose of the investigation was to provide informatlon which could profitably be used when planning other by-pass facilities.

The paper is a summary of the research on travel pattern characteristics. The report gives nine regression models which were developed for use in synthesizing travel pattern studies in cities in standard metropolitan statistical areas of less than one million population, eight of which are in Indiana.

Wright's model for the effects of random fluctuations in gene frequency in a population of fixed size is generalized to randomly fluctuating population size, and treated from the viewpoint of G. Malécot, using a martingale convergence theorem. The gene frequency approaches a limit, whose value depends on the actual realization, or history, of the process; that is, convergence is with probability one (or: almost surely) in statistical language. The limit does not necessarily represent a state of fixation of either allele; in particular, the limiting probability distribution is not necessarily trivial. For the special case of deterministically varying population size, a necessary and sufficient condition for such non-triviality is given.

The purpose of this research was to develop a method for synthesizing urban travel patterns through an evaluation of various factors which affected travel characteristics in 14 different urban areas. The study included an investigation of travel characteristics in standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) less than one million in population. This population classification was chosen because of the possible homogeneity in the factors affecting transportation facilities. Statistical analyses of data from the 14 cities were made to evaluate correlations in urban travel characteristics. Urban vehicular trip patterns, truck trips, and traffic generation of the central business district were among the characteristics investigated.

The Generalized Computer-Ai ded Route Selection (GCARS) System is designed to fulfill the need for improved regional planning methods. Computer-aided planning systems, such as GCARS, combine the engineer's judgment with the computer's data handling and logical capabilities. This makes possible the rapid generation and objective assessment of larger numbers of alternative corridors in terms of many conflicting location factors. The GCARS System builds and stores within the computer specific cost models, termed "value surfaces". Several value surfaces may be combined in various proportions to form a "utility surface". Repeated minimum path analysis of these surfaces generates a series of ranked alternatives between any desired termini i, in response to selected factors alone or in combination. The effects of changes in the importance of any factor or in the locations of terminii can be quickly determined. The sensitivity of each situation is measured by comparing the subsequent choices to the first. The operation of the GCARS System is demonstrated by examples from an Indiana study. Two by-pass locations near a town of 60,000 population are examined in terms of earthwork, pavement construction, and right-of-way acquisition costs, trip distributions, and the present road network. Experiments have shown that these techniques become increasingly attractive as the number of factors to be considered increases, and when the engineer has interactive control of the process through a teletype or similar device.

In the United States and in Indiana the population, the number of vehicle miles, the number of motor vehicle registrations, and the number of deaths from traffic accidents, 1953 to 1963, increased. However, the death rate per 100 million vehicle miles decreased substantially during this ten year period. Although successful steps have been taken to reduce motor vehicle accidents, the highway engineer is the first to admit that there is room for much improvement. The Joint Highway Research Project in 1964 initiated a traffic engineering demonstration project on the U. S. 52 By-Pass at Lafayette-West Lafayette, Indiana. One of the first phases of this was a study in depth of the traffic accidents which occurred on this facility, to develop recommendations for traffic engineering improvements which would reduce accidents on this facility, and information of value on other high volume urban highways. The Lafayette-West Lafayette By-Pass was the scene of 834 accidents between January 1, 1961, and December 31, 1963. A total of 374 injuries and ten deaths resulted from these accidents. These are the accidents which were investigated in this study.

The purposes of this research Investigation were to develop mathematical models that measure the relative safety or hazard of urban grade crossings and to establish a priority rating system, based on these models, for determining protection improvements in urban areas. The mathematical techniques of discriminant analysis and regression analysis were utilized to develop discriminant models with linearly assigned probabilities. These models permit potential hazards to be expressed as the probability that a grade crossing is accident prone. A grade crossing where a vehicle-train accident had occurred during a two-year period was considered as a representative member of the population of accident prone crossings. A location which had not experienced a vehicle-train accident for at least five years prior to the date of the field investigation was assumed as a representative member of the population of non-accident prone grade crossings. Data were collected at 295 accident locations and 281 non-accident locations in urban portions of the State of Indiana. The best discriminant model is 74-percent successful in classifying the true group membership of the sample grade crossings. This model expresses potential hazard as a function of protective device, average daily highway traffic, average daily train traffic, degree of effective sight distance, and roadside distractions. A methodology was developed for selecting a minimum level of grade crossing protection and for establishing priorities for the improvement of protection at urban railroad-highway grade crossings.

The appearance of this paper will surely prove to be a major event in the statistical world. A set of easily applied techniques, of wide applicability, is presented, and the underlying concepts and viewpoint are explained, in a manner that is always stimulating and readable and nearly always clear. A noticeable effect on statistical practice and on conceptual thinking may confidently be forecast. This is a fine achievement. Many features of the paper invite thought and discussion. Here are a few comments on the basic notions of error rates and simultaneous confidence intervals, offered to promote understanding. The spending of error rates. All the talk about spending (or budgeting or controlling) error rates makes me feel uncomfortable, not so much because the authors are concerned about error rates as because they seem to think everyone else should be too. The topic is introduced in Section 2, just after mention of Fisher's variance ratio test. It is not clear to me that Fisher thought in terms of error rates. True, he did tabulate 5% and 1% points of distributions, and he spoke of these percentages with respect, but his thinking was remarkably unrigid. (At any rate, when I tried recently to reformulate the concept of significance test in a somewhat Fisherian spirit I was not aware of talking about error rates-J. Roy Statist. Soc. B, 25, 1963, 81-94.) The error rate concept belongs to the Neyman-Pearson theory of tests and Neyman's doctrine of confidence intervals and inductive behavior. The concept undoubtedly has interest and relevance in contexts of routine inspection, testing and decision making, expecially when a fully decision-theoretic treatment is for some reason not available. But in more purely scientific contexts the notion of error rate is less natural. Not everyone uses it. Multiple comparisons and simultaneous confidence intervals. We may distinguish three situations in which a problem of "multiple comparisons" between some sample means may arise. First, possibly there really is no problem, because the precision of the means is high relative to differences that would be interesting, and we have no hesitation in declaring that certain population means do not differ to any important extent, or that one mean lies a long way below all the others, for example. Sometimes, however, the situation is less obvious, and we have to weigh borderline differences. Then careful consideration should be given to the purpose of the investigation. Sometimes it will appear that there is a specific objective, and the problem of analysis can be satisfactorily formulated in decision-theoretic terms. There may possibly be some technical difficulties in the formulation

SEVERAL years ago, Gibbs,1 summarizing contributions of biochemistry to plant taxonomy, recognized the importance of the then relatively new techniques of paper chromatography and forecast their wide application, to systematics. Although a number of workers have applied chromatographic techniques to taxonomic problems in both botany and zoology2, the use of these techniques is not nearly commensurate with their potential value, perhaps because the cooperation of taxonomists and persons trained in biochemical analysis has been slow to develop. The present communication constitutes a brief description of work currently under way which is to be reported in greater detail elsewhere;3 the chomatographic analysis of individuals from a natural hybrid swarm of Baptisia laevicaulis × B. viridis (family Leguminosae), and correlation of these data with a similar analysis of the parental species collected in pure populations. Three other species of Baptisia were also examined chromatographically. Since this genus contains about 30 species of wide occurrence in the eastern United States, and hybridization among these species is common, it is highly probable that the scope of the present investigation will be extended. In this study we were particularly concerned with the recombination of biochemical components peculiar to each parental species among the hybrid and back-crossed individuals.

The research was concerned with changes in attitudes, values and behavior associated with the modernizing influences of increased education, communication, and industrialization. A traditional style of life which has developed over many generations is being modified by urban, industrial influences. There have been changes in aspirations, family structure, and social control. Four similar communities which were located 50, 100, 200 and 400 kilometers from the capital and major city, Manila, were studied. Within each community 18 men and 18 women from each of three social levels were interviewed, yielding a total of 432 respondents. This design made it possible to determine the relative effects of distance from Manila, sex, and social class on modernity of attitudes. Exposure to modernizing influences was manipulated by selecting near and remote communities.