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The article presents a list of papers presented to the 1963 Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. The conference was held during June 23-28, 1963. There were five sessions, which covered topics like national incomes, growth rates, economic growth, etc. Some of the papers were "Rates of Growth in Israel's Economy," by A.L. Gaathon; "A Statistical Evaluation of the Rate of Growth of National Income in Postwar Japan," by M. Shinohara; "Reliability and Usefulness of Short-Term National Accounts: Australia," by Don Youngman; and "New Evidence on Demand Elasticities," by H.S. Houthakker.

The article discusses a financial framework for economic growth in the United States. The article presents a unified financial counterpart to a long-term economic projection. Based on assumptions of varying rates of growth, a set of projections of economic activity in 1970 is presented. A "judgment" model will be selected based on the results of the projections. The article then introduces a theoretical framework that links levels of economic and financial activity. By using the "judgment" model as a reference, the pattern of relationships will be applied to a projection of assets and liabilities for the individual components of the financial network.

SUMMARY The fact that high expenditure on armaments impedes economic growth by diverting ressources from investment has been repeatedly stressed. The present paper indicates an additional route by which military expenditure may slow down economic growth. The clue is taken from the 'export-led growth' models (B eckerman, L amfalussy) which claim a correlation between growth of exports and total economic growth. It is then argued that high military expenditure reduces export availabilities in the machinery and transport equipment sector where chances for export expansion have been above average. This brake on the most expansive sector dampens export growth in general. A slow-down in GNP-growth follows from this. A preliminary glance at the statistical picture shows that the above hypothesis should not be completely ruled out. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Die wachstumshemmende Wirkung hoher Rüstungsausgaben, die durch die Ver-minderung von Resourcen für Investitionszwecke hervorgerufen wird, ist schon oft betont worden. Die vorliegende Arbeit weist auf einen möglichen weiteren Zusammenhang zwischen Höhe der Militärausgaben und Rate des Wirtschafts-wachstums hin. Ausgangspunkt sind die Theorien eines «export-led growth» (B eckerman, L amfalussy), die eine positive Korrelation zwischen Export- und allgemeinem Wirtschaftswachstum postulieren. Es wird dann darauf hingewiesen, dass hohe Militärausgaben das Exportangebot im Sektor der Maschinen und Ver-kehrsmittel beschneiden, der im Welthandel weit rascher expandiert als andere Sektoren. Diese Bremswirkung im expansivsten Sektor zieht eine Verlangsamung des Exportwachstums im allgemeinen nach sich und führt schliesslich zu einer relativ niedrigeren Wachstumsrate des Bruttosozialprodukts. Ein enter Blick ad das vorhandene statistische Material zeigt, dass die obige Hypothese nicht ohne weiteres von der Hand zu weisen ist. RÉSUMÉ Des dépenses importantes pour l'armement empêchent la croissance économique parce qu'elles détournent les ressources nécessaires à l'investissement. Ce fait est largement connu. L'article se tourne vers une autre relation possible entre la hauteur des dépenses militaires et le ralentissement de la croissance économique. Les théories du «export-led growth» (B eckerman, L amfalussy) servent de point de repère: elles stipulent une corrélation positive entre la croissance économique en général et celle des exportations. L'auteur démontre par la suite que les dépenses militaires élevées réduisent les possibilités d'exportations dans la secteurs des machines et des moyens de transport. On sait que partout l'expansion de ces deux secteurs at bien au-dessus de la moyenne. Pour cette raison un freinage touchant ces deux secteun particulièrement expands ralentira la croissance des exporta-tions en général et aboutira par la suite à un tau d'accroissement moins élevé du produit national brut. Un regard préliminaire Bur le matériel statistique affirme que l'hypothèse developpée par l'auteur ne devrait être exclue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY S olow's famous contribution to the theory of economic growth is based on the assumption that the savings proportions are the same for all income earners. In this study this restrictive premise is replaced by the assumption that the savings proportions vary according to the different groups of income earners. This paper sets out to analyse the resultant consequences for the long-run equilibrium growth. One essential result is that both the overall savings proportion and the capital-output-ratio are flexible. Their steady-state solutions are, in contrast to the respective solutions in S olow's original paper, dependent on the form of the production function. Moreover, there can be derived certain conditions for the special long-run equilibrium of the Neo-Classical Theorem, which are implying no specific restrictions on the savings proportions of the various groups. Besides, there is shown that on these conditions not only a maximum of total consumption per man is achieved but also an equal distribution of consumption among all groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paul Samuelson [5] [6] and Peter Diamond [2] have developed growth models in which the attempt by each economic unit to maximize its utility does not lead to a social optimum. It would be possible for all generations to consume more per capita, if economic growth were directed by an omniscient social planner. Their models are free from the usual sources of inefficiency encountered in price theory. They explicitly assume perfect competition, perfect foresight and no external economies or diseconomies. The purpose of this paper is to introduce government institutions which may have little foresight, which will not engage in central planning or use direct controls but whose existence will guarantee that the equilibrium solution will be optimal. I am interested in determining the minimal amount of government which is sufficient to produce long-run optimality.
Diamond's long-run ratio of capital to labor k (in Figure 1) could yield an interest rate above or below the growth rate. Capital at time t+1 is equal to current savings of workers which depend upon the current wage W[k(t)]. This wage was determined by the savings of the previous generation of workers and the size of the current labor force. No saver has an influence on his wage, which determines the present value of his consumption, since he has no effect upon the current stock of capital. His saving decision affects both his retirement income and the next generation's stock of capital. Only the retirement income, however, concerns him. He has no interest in the real wage of the next generation of workers. If he values current consumption highly, he will 1 r=(1+n)/(1-)(1-) in his model [2].
save little and the resulting interest rate next period will be "high". On the other hand, if he values future consumption highly, he will save a lot and the resulting interest rate will be "low" in the next period. There is no reason why the equilibrium interest rate should equal the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been much speculation about the meaning of the residual factor in economic growth. Few economists would defend it as a perfect measure of technical change, preferring to hedge their bets by describing it as part of the growth of output not explained by the growth in the labour force and capital accumulation. Others have been more forceful in their opposition claiming that the residual merely shows the degree of our inability to measure accurately, and the omission of relevant variables, and have demonstrated their views. The view of the present author is that, while the residual when properly measured must theoretically be zero, a detailed examination of the residual as normally measured is useful in providing information on the causes of economic growth and possibly thereby producing policy implications for raising the growth rate. Therefore, this paper seeks to establish how much of the residual can be explained by incorrect measurement and specification, and to see what implications for policy, if any, can be drawn. The analysis is carried out for Great Britain. Manufacturing over the period 1956-65 and provides estimates of the residual at successive stages of purity.

This paper begins by formulating a finite horizon linear programming model for economic development. The formulation allows for heterogeneous capital goods and for nonnegativity constraints upon investment in each sector. It is then proved that a certain set of conditions are sufficient to ensure that an optimal solution to this T period, finite horizon plan will also coincide with an optimal solution during the first T periods of an infinite horizon plan. Among the restrictive conditions imposed to prove this sufficiency theorem are the following: gradualist consumption paths, no primary factors that cannot themselves be produced within the economy, a Leontief technology, and a characterization of the optimal finite horizon solution as one in which the terminal investment and output levels are positive. An illustrative numerical example is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a simple theory governing the relationship between useful energy consumption and national output that explains why the adjusted elasticities found by two economists turned out to be greater than one. The theory is quantified by reference to a wide range of countries covering the whole spectrum of economic development and is tested against the actual experience over 20 to 25 years of individual countries. Conformity to the theory was very close and the efficiency-in-use coefficients computed by economists were found to hold good for periods of 20 to 25 years. Briefly, the hypothesis states that as a country moves through the various stages of its economic development from primitive subsistence agriculture to the ultimate state of fully energy-dependent production, its useful energy elasticity steadily falls from a high value tending asymptotically to one. By itself this proposition is of little use to energy forecasters, because it simply substitutes the requirement to predict energy intensiveness of output for the requirement to predict energy consumption. If we can satisfy ourselves that real GDP per capita is a good measure of energy intensiveness, however, then the relationship derived above can be used as the basis for a mathematical model linking useful energy consumption per capita with GDP per capita.

The search for uniformities in the growth patterns of individual industries rose to a peak some 30 years ago in the explorations of economists Simon S. Kuznets and in the subsequent comprehensive work of Arthur F. Burns. Partly because of the widespread acceptance of these results and attendant explanations of their inevitability, and partly because of the compelling attractions of other economic problems, little additional work was done in this area for an extended period. Recent portents of a revival of interest stem from three sources: the growing output of long-term forecasts for individual industries, which invites a search for generalizations and efforts to reinvigorate research and theory relating to economic growth by probing the behavior of disaggregated sectors. This paper will concentrate primarily on reviewing Burns's expectations and comparing them with actual results over the following 25 years as a basis for: suggesting revisions in the interpretation of his original findings; outlining needed modifications in the theory as well as the pattern of industrial growth paths; and exploring the possibility of developing patterned expectations for the growth of individual commodities and firms.

The article discusses the causes of the high rate of economic growth and national income in postwar Japan. There has been an upsurge in the fixed investment of private enterprise, the extent of which Japan never experienced before. According to official national income statistics, private fixed investment (excluding residential construction) increased from 7774 billion yen to 4,0504 billion yen for 1955-61, about a five-fold increase in only six years. Such an unprecedented increase in fixed investment brought about an annual real GNP growth rate of about ten per cent. A glance at the estimates for consumption expenditure in the official national income statistics gives rise to the doubt that the proportion of clothing expenditures to total consumption is too low. According to data analyzed by the authors, in 1955, inter-industry table, clothing expenditure amounted to 776.4 billion yen.

The article presents documentation of several books and papers related to the regional growth of Europe. "European Yearbook," A record of European organization and integration compiled under the auspices of the Council of Europe. Regional Development, Economic Growth And Employment in France. A discussion of the excessive concentration of industry around the cities, particularly Paris, of the effects this concentration is having on the nation's economy, and of what may be done to change the trend. "Continental France," Facts and figures on the political and economic state of France with some information on foreign trade and special inducements for foreign investors.

The article presents a reference guide for Far East. Names of publishers of books and the addresses of periodicals are provided to aid readers. Listings include only basic material, not news items or reports of transitory significance. "A History of the Far East in Modern Times," by Harold M. Vinacke, is the sixth edition of a book first published in 1950, which includes postwar material on Japan, China, Korea and other far eastern areas. "Economic Survey of Asia and the Far East," includes sections on foreign trade, post war industrialization and many statistical tables. "Ceylon as a Market," by W.R. Van, a survey of Ceylon's market and how to sell in it by the Canadian commercial secretary in Colombo. "Sinhalese Village," Bryce Ryan, is a detailed study of village life and its relationship to the changing country as a whole. The whole issue of "India: Economic Development and Cultural Change" is on India. Subjects discussed by a variety of authors are: economic planning, population growth, public and private business, employment and unemployment, agriculture, capital formation, entrepreneurship and inflation.

The article discusses the problems associated with creating economic experiments in laboratory settings through the use of controlled and simulated conditions. The author explains that unlike other types of scientific experimentation, economics has too many variables that require real-life situations in order to observe. The author suggests that rather than creating scenarios, the most effective way to study the economy is through observing and discussing the actual trends that occur in relation to inflation, politics and growth.

The article presents a reference guide for Middle East. Names of publishers of books and the addresses of periodicals are provided to aid readers. Listings include only basic material, not news items or reports of transitory significance. "Who's Who in U.A.R. and the Near East" presents brief biographies of important people in U.A.R., the Sudan, Iran, Libya, Cyprus, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi-Arabia, India, Pakistan, Ceylon, Indonesia, Ethiopia and Aden. "Middle East in Crisis: A Historical and Documentary Review," by Carol Ann Fisher and Fred Krinsky, reviews past and present trends, problems and policies concerning Middle East. "Middle East Perspective," by R.C. Mowat, is a survey of the events and ideas that have brought about the present situation. "The Determination of the Stock of Money and the Promotion of Economic Activities in Egypt," by Soghi F. Geraissa, is an abstract of a doctoral thesis completed at the University of Wisconsin in 1957. "Israel: Rebirth in an Antique Land," is a special section on Israel, covering her international relations, place in the Arab world, Zionism, newcomers, politics, financial problems, and over population.

Some models for the economic development of developing countries provide a shift of population from the agricultural to non-agricultural sector. The aim of the study cited in this article is to investigate the possibility of intersectoral transfers of population in the future. The supply of labor is estimated through the population growth in the non-agricultural sector, after allowing for a secular change in the labor force participation rates. The growth of national income in India during 1969-84 was expected by the Indian Planning Commission to be 5.5 per cent during the fourth plan. Before deriving the labor requirements of the non-agricultural sector, the capital-labor ratio for that sector is estimated. The marginal capital-labor ratio with the additional capital requirements is estimated to arrive at the demand for labor in this sector. To obtain the total labor force in the non-agricultural sector it requires a deduction of urban agricultural labor force from, and an addition of the labor force to, the labor force in the urban sector.

The article measures the effect of public finance during the period 1793-1815 on the rate and direction of Great Britain's economic development. It explores the country's involvement in war during the period. One aspect of the war which has intermittently attracted economists" attention from the time of the "bullionist" controversy is the effect of the expedients that were adopted in the field of public finance. The article describes the sources of data which economic historian can use to be able to fairly measure the effect of the country's finance on the rate and direction of economic growth. An analysis on the economic indicators during the period is presented.

The article presents information on several articles on economic history published in various journals. Some of the articles are "Of Plymouth Plantation As A Mercantile Epic," by J. Griffith, published in the "Arizona Quarterly"; "The Planters of Colonial Maryland," by A.C. Land, published in the "Maryland Historical Magazine"; "Trade, Distribution, and Economic Growth in Colonial America," by J.F. Shepherd and G.M. Walton, published in the "Journal of Economic History"; "The Demographic History of Colonial New England," by D.S. Smith, published in the "Journal of Economic History."

Social progress is closely interlinked with economic development. Many aspects of social progress are prerequisities to economic development. Alternatively, the level of economic growth defines to a large extent the character of the social problems which arise. The article studies the interrelation between social and economic aspects of development as they are reflected in programmes and plans of national development in different countries. Special reference is made to the different indices by which social processes are measured in such programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many underdeveloped countries, the main problem of economic development is not so much the acceleration of investment in material capital for the ‘take-off’ as the building of the runway for a future take-off. But discussions of ‘pre-investment’ in human capital for this purpose are vague and unsatisfactory. In particular, it is not clear whether investment in education is to supply the ‘missing components’ of skills within a given framework or to supply a dynamic catalyst which will radically change the framework itself. These two different concepts of education illustrate the conflicting requirements of social discipline and social flexibility as a prerequisite of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information about the Overseas Development Institute in Great Britain. It was founded towards the end of 1960 by a group of people who consider that the economic development of the countries of Asia, Africa and South America, and their relations with the industrially developed areas of the world, are of material importance. Its funds were received from the Ford Foundation, from British industry and commerce, and from the Nuffield Foundation. The institute is non-profit-making and its policies are decided by a council which is independent and non-governmental.

Several authors have presented data which they argue is indicative of the effects of economic development on demographic processes. Others have tended to equate the economic well-being of a population with economic development and argue that economic well-being has a positive effect on demographic processes. Such promulgations, we believe, have largely been responsible for the advancement of what has been called the myth of economic determinism with respect to demographic processes, particularly fertility and mortality. To counter the determinist myth several authors in the last few years have suggested that the level of economic development is only one aspect of a more general process which demographers, economists and sociologists have labeled modernization. While this concept appears to be intuitively appealing its meaning appears to remain quite nebulous. For instance, it has been noted that the concept has been applied to various units including international, societal, community and individual.

This article focuses on the need for constructive analysis, planning, and policy to promote regional economic growth in the southern states of the U.S. The prospects and possibilities for the South's economic development are, of course, closely linked with growth of and changes in the national economy. During the past two decades, the South has shared increasingly well in national economic growth, and similar promise holds for the future. Although there are thus grounds for optimism, the expected improvement could presumably be made greater and more certain. The present momentum of Southern economic development provides a strong driving force which may be harnessed by special and concerted efforts to secure continued advance. Too much emphasis can hardly be placed on the productivity of the South's labor force in terms of its aptitudes, mobility, and employability. For several decades, the South has had somewhat more than its share of low productivity industry. Low-productivity areas are necessarily low-wage, low-income areas as well. A revealing example is the cotton-growing region of the South in which farms are typically too small, under-equipped, and poorly managed to be profitable. Such factors as the one-crop system, sharecropping, race, and an inadequate system of rural credit work in combination to reduce the productivity and cash incomes of these far too numerous farmers.

The article focuses on communist China's economic growth. The purpose of this article is to throw light on communist China's asserted economic growth by comparing it with that of the Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Japan. This is not to minimize in any way the Indian development, which has been rapid during the Nineteen Fifties and which has given very encouraging evidence to Asia of what can be accomplished with free institutions. It is merely an attempt to put Communist China's claimed economic progress back into focus. It should be emphasized that this article does not intend to analyze how effective the Chinese communists have been in improving their military potential even though this appears to be a primary aim of their economic policy. Instead this report intends to outline an approach for analyzing the relative effectiveness of the Chinese communist system in promoting economic growth; it is this latter question that appears to be most hotly debated. It appears that many analysts are convinced that just because a regime can hold down consumption, theoretically it should, therefore, be promoting a large volume of sound investment and a huge growth potential.

The article reports that the emergence of modern India as the great neutral and middle-of the- way state in international affairs has somewhat obscured the contribution in the field of economic development which this great country is making. India's Five Year Plan is based on a middle-of-the-road economic philosophy. It views the economy as divided into a public and private sector which share economic activity as equals. Springing from forces deep in the culture of India, this economic philosophy stresses the partnership of public and private sectors, working together in harmony. Moreover, the plan also conceives of "numerous points of contact and interaction between the two sectors" and units worked on the principal of joint participation." In line with this thinking, in the ground between the two sectors, India has made use of some interesting politico-economic devices. The world of the nineteenth century drew a sharp distinction between business and government. Mixed enterprise is treated by many Western writers, especially in the Anglo-Saxon countries, as simply a vague case of nationalized industry, not essentially different from the case where the public authority held all claims to ownership.

The article discusses the factors that contributed to the economic growth experienced by Greece after the war in 1949. The rate of growth implications of the national income estimates for the years 1950-61 suggest a continuous increase in real terms, except for 1952, when there was a decrease. After 1953 the Greek economy appears to have grown again at a fluctuating annual rate due mainly to sharp fluctuations in agricultural output. Since 1950, the economy has grown very fast. Agriculture ranks second in terms of growth, with an average percentage growth of 5.65 percent for the twelve years. By the year 1955 the agricultural output had reached a level from which further increases were not easy. The rise in income and productivity in the country was made possible by the investment which took place during the period 1950-61. The rate of capital formation expressed as a percentage of GNP was high compared with levels in some other underdeveloped countries. It is evident that increase in the urban population should have been an additional factor in promoting economic development in Greece.

The object of this article is to demonstrate that economic analysis used in conjunction with the data employed by researcher R.B. Sheridan yields the conclusion that the possession of the British West Indies actually had the effect of retarding the growth of Great Britain. Sheridan contends that the West Indies in general, and Jamaica in particular, yielded an economic surplus, which contributed in no small way to the growth of the metropolitan economy. In the course of his argument, Sheridan constructs an estimate of the wealth of Jamaica during the 1770's and expands it to include all the British West India sugar colonies. Sheridan's argument contains two types of error that, when corrected, vitiate his conclusion. One type of error, an error of measurement, occurs both in his attempt to measure the wealth of Jamaica and in his acceptance of an estimate of income generated by this wealth. The more serious mistake, however, is an analytical error. Sheridan implicitly considers the extensive growth of the sugar colonies as a measure of their contribution to the economic growth of the mother country.

The article provides information on the causes of the industrial revolution in medieval England. It also presents information on the consequences of the industrial revolution and the problem of determining the reason for the occurrence of the revolution. The twentieth century has been remarkable for historical productivity, for the increasing quantity and range of source materials available, for the growing sophistication of techniques, and for the large-scale growth in numbers of professional economic historians, with their own societies, journals, university departments and degrees, but there still is relative ignorance about many major problems of the industrial revolution, and in lieu of detailed investigation into their solutions, inevitably much speculation. On any historical accounting, the industrial revolution is one of the great discontinuities of history; it would not be implausible indeed, to claim that it has been the greatest. Economic history has always been concerned largely with the documentation, description and explanation of what the economists call economic growth, and with so much empirical and theoretical literature on growth by the economists now available, some historians are turning towards the economists for guidance.

This article presents information regarding the role of social structure and motivational tuning in social and economic development. Underdevelopment has been characterized in terms of the levels of capital accumulation, industrialization, marketing capability, education and skills, achievement motivation, receptivity to innovation and new information, empathy, universalistic orientation and so forth. With more capital or more education or more of achievement motivation etc., it is believed that economic and social development will be speeded up. Similarly a fairly high level of education in itself is of little value in a developmental perspective unless it is made useful in productive and creative undertakings. If education becomes mainly an item for consumption or a channel of status-seeking rather than a factor in productivity and creativity, a higher level of education is of little developmental significance as compared with a restructuring of the pattern of skills and motivations such that a concurrence of skills and achievement motivation is brought about.

The article focuses on statistics of coal output in southwest Lancashire, England during 1590-1799. No one doubts the central role of coal in the Industrial Revolution, but statistics of coal output before the mid-nineteenth century are meager on both the national and the coalfield scales. Moreover, that those which do exist contain potentially serious flaws is admitted by their authors and by those who have subsequently used them. No comparable body of coalfield estimates exists for the eighteenth century. Regional statistics could not be used to corroborate or refute national estimates. It has not yet been demonstrated that there was an English economy rather than a collection of self-contained or trading regions within England by the end of the eighteenth century, and even if a cohesive national economy did exist regional rates of economic growth would differ. In such a situation national aggregate data are of chimerical value, and regional statistics are more useful for testing hypotheses about the role of coal production in the Industrial Revolution.

The article presents a reference guide for economic development and aid. Names of publishers of books and the addresses of periodicals are provided to aid readers. Listings include only basic material, not news items or reports of transitory significance. "Economic Development: Principles, Problems and Policies," By Benjamin Higgins, discusses how to launch the growth of the economies of underdeveloped countries and how to raise national income in advanced one. Case studies of Lybia. India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Mexico and Italy are included in it. "International Specialization and the Concept of Balanced Growth: Comment," by Ronald Findlay, is a critique of an article in the May 1958 issue of the "Quarterly Journal," by John Sheahan. "Partnership for Progress: International Technical Cooperation," discusses the economic, political, and administrative aspects of international technical cooperation. "The Image of the Past and Economic Backgrounds," by A.A. Pepelasis, is a study of the ways in which pride in tradition can hold back a country economically, with Greece used as a case in point.