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Analyzes the overseas investment situation in Australian economy. Role of capital inflow in the economy; Relationship of capital inflow with the domestic monetary management; Correlation of capital inflow with the exchange rate.

William Edward Hearn, first Professor of Economics in the University of Melbourne, and author of Plutology or the Theory of the Efforts to Satisfy Human Wants (1863), is a figure familiar to those who have even a casual acquaintance with the development of economic thought in Australia. His work has been the object of studies by a number of distinguished scholars, most notably Professor J. A. La Nauze in his Political Economy in Australia, and earlier, Sir Douglas Copland in the Macrossan Lectures of 1935. More recently, Professor Craufurd Goodwin has dealt with some of the aspects of Hearn's contribution. The purpose of this article is not to retrace the ground covered by these writers, but to draw attention to a short, but interesting, item by Hearn which seems so far to have escaped notice. This item, which sheds new light on the genesis and contents of the Plutology, is a discourse On Cottier Rents read before the Dublin Statistical Society in 1851. The address was given during Hearn's tenure as Professor of Greek at Queen's College, Galway, and in the year which saw the publication of his Cassell Prize Essay on the Condition of Ireland. In contrast with the latter, the Statistical Society paper embodies economic analysis of some merit, although both works are concerned with the need for legal reform in Ireland. The paper examines the bases of social and economic stagnation in Ireland through a consideration of the influence of certain pervasive market forces. In the course of this consideration, Hearn displays an analytical facility which warrants the attention of the historian of economic ideas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does Australia have a long run trade-off between inflation and unemployment? In other words, if demand management policies were able to select and maintain a steady rate of inflation, would the level of unemployment that emerged be lower, the higher the chosen inflation rate ? If such a trade-off exists, what are its most likely quantitative characteristics? Alternatively, is the Phelps-Friedman accelerationist hypothesis a better characterisation of Australia's long run inflation-unemployment options. That is, is there some rate of unemployment, (usually termed the natural rate), not necessarily a constant rate over time but unrelated to the inflation rate, at which any steady rate of inflation is possible but below which inflation will persistently accelerate? If this accelerationist model better describes the Australian economy, what is (and has been) the natural unemployment rate? These are the main questions dealt with in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ever since the publication of the Brigden Report [1929], income distribution has always been an important element in the arguments for protection put forward by academic economists in Australia. It is noteworthy that, although the theoretical developments necessary to begin to unravel the income redistributive effects of protection have been well-known for nearly 30 years, there have been few attempts to estimate empirically such income redistributive effects of a tariff structure for any country. Perhaps the best known studies of protection which attempt, amongst other things, to say something about direction of change in factor prices induced by the tariff structure are by Vaccara [1961], Travis [1964] and Basevi [1966]. However, I know of no attempts to assign orders of magnitude to such effects. Part of the reason for the lack of attention to problems of income distribution and the tariff stems from the difficulties in building theoretical models which give a priori predictions about factor price changes when more than two factors are included and the empirical problems involved in implementing such models. Another reason may be that economists today tend to be more concerned with growth which increases everyone's income, rather than worrying about redistributing what is already available. Be that as it may, there is in Australia a long history of concern with both static and dynamic effects of tariffs on wages, employment, and income distribution, and economic welfare in general, and it is to these questions that this paper is addressed. In section II, a brief history of the empirical and theoretical aspects of the income redistribution argument for protection in Australia is outlined. A two sector version of a multi-sectoral growth model, which can be used to estimate empirically the effects of tariffs on factor prices, is described in section III. The empirical implementation of the multi-sectoral version of that model is described in section IV, and... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper our primary aim is to present an estimation procedure for an evolving, or changing, seasonal pattern and in particular to discuss general problems of seasonal estimation where such a pattern is assumed. As a preliminary step we sketch the theoretical background which is fundamental to our approach, omitting any detailed investigation of proposed models, estimation methods and the many formulae employed. The suggested estimation procedures have been applied to a number of Australian economic time series and some of the problems encountered in this implementation are discussed with reference to the series in which these difficulties appeared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pricing, capital raising and investment practices of ports have been studied in some official reports mainly to provide a guide to the optimal allocation of resources by port authorities. These studies have naturally considered the domestic social costs and benefits of changes in the policies of ports, since their operations are part of the economy's infrastructure. The literature is smaller on the private aspect of port costs to users—the direct and indirect costs to shipowners and shippers or consignees. This may be because the direct costs involved, which are fairly easily calculated, are frequently a small component of the total operating costs of shipping and o the selling prices of goods. On the other hand, the indirect costs involved, which include both monetary and imputed costs, may be a large cost component and are not easily calculable. The building up of sound generalisations rests ultimately on the evidence of actual situations. This paper makes some analysis of data on user costs in Australian ports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As has often been observed, the Australian economy, especially its secondary and tertiary sectors, has grown rapidly since World War II. This growth, however, was not continuous, but took place in a rhythmic "stop-go" pattern; and it is with such "growth cycles" rather than the overall average growth itself that we will be concerned. Recently there has been an interest in approaching this subject by an application to Australian statistics of some well-known methods devised by the National Bureau of Economic Research (N.B.E.R.) for analyzing the U.S. business cycle. Specifically, peaks and troughs are found for individual economic time series showing the business cycle either in the raw data or in short moving averages of it. From the conspectus of these, the peaks and troughs of a "general reference cycle" are determined. Finally a distinction is made between "leading", "roughly coincident", and "lagging" series according to the typical relationship between cycles of individual series and "the general reference cycle". The aim of this paper is to re-examine this whole area, but beginning from the standpoint of the methods of spectral and cross-spectral analysis in an attempt to achieve a better characterization and estimation of the properties of the business cycle in different areas of the Australian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Econometric models of the Australian economy have not yet reached the levels of completeness and complexity that are necessary for reliable forecasts and tenable assessments of economic policy. It is generally believed that this stage is more effectively reached by gradually extending comparatively simple aggregative systems to more complicated ones. The model presented in this paper serves primarily to fill an important gap remaining from the two previously published studies. It develops, in relatively simple terms, a monetary sector that is complementary to the investment and consumption relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main principles of fiscal stabilisation is the regulation of taxation (and, to a lesser extent, expenditure) in a manner which will dampen fluctuations in national income and so avoid unemployment and inflation. A change in taxation or expenditure can be made by a change in legislation. Such changes are referred to as discretionary fiscal policy. Tax revenues and expenditures may also change automatically. These changes are generally referred to as built-in or automatic fiscal policy. The aims of this paper are to examine, in what is essentially a static framework, the built-in changes in some of the components of the Australian budget and to evaluate their stabilisation performance during the period 1948-64. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been several attempts in the last few years to identify the Peaks and Troughs of the post-war Australian business cycle. The latest and most detailed study, that of J. S. Mallyon, supports the generally accepted view. Peaks occurred somewhere about July 1951 and September 1960, with corresponding Troughs at October 1952 and August 1961. In between there were one or two less well-marked fluctuations. The object of this paper is neither to contradict nor confirm these opinions, but to examine in more detail the precise chronology of each episode. In addition to the conventional maxima and minima, therefore, six other business cycle reference points have been defined. The timing of any "cycle" may thus be described in terms not only of its "Peaks" and "Troughs", but also of the peaks and troughs of the growth rate curve, the dates at which activity rises above or falls below its trend value, and the dates at which it stands at a maximum above or minimum below trend value. The method used to establish these other dates yields estimates of Peaks and Troughs as a by-product. In this respect there is an overlap with Mallyon's research, the advantage of which lies in the cheek it provides on the dating of the other reference points not previously established for Australia. If the estimates of Peaks and Troughs made by this method agree in general with those of Mallyon (which they do) and if the other reference points are as well authenticated as the Peaks and Troughs (which they are) then there is some ground for regarding the other dates as a useful addition to existing knowledge. The conceptual framework of this study is outlined briefly in the next section. The method of research is described in Section III and the results reported in Section IV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been several periods during the last fifteen years when the Australian central bank has sought and achieved a reduction in outstanding advances. The most recent was in 1960-61. This article will consider what sectors of the community were most affected by the contraction in the supply of trading bank finance during this year. A number of writers have discussed the overall effectiveness of government policies and the usefulness of monetary policy during this period, and these questions will not be considered in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to explore, in an Australian context, some of the implications of adjusting money wages for productivity. The analysis may offer a rationale for the past reluctance of the Commission to take the advice of the economists; it will point to some of the difficulties that the 1965 policy might be expected to meet. Section II examines the mechanism by which productivity-geared wages are said to ensure price stability. There are two essential linkages, one between award wages and average earnings and a second between average direct costs and the general level of prices. Section III notes some possible implications for the structure of earnings of operating on award wages in order to control the rate of increase of average earnings. Section IV examines the implications of the productivity rule when there is a general change in world prices. It is argued that, in this case, important consequences follow either for the distribution of income between exporters and wage-earners or for exchange rate policy. Section V notes briefly the implications of the productivity rule for balanceof-payments policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the economic conditions influencing the discovery of mineral fields in Australia in the nineteenth century. The first condition for mineral discovery was accessibility. The early Australian metal-mining fields were in the southeast corner of the continent and were found in moist and lightly timbered lands where sheep had long grazed. Most of the major discoveries made late in the nineteenth century were on the arid plains or in the mountain forests which were unfit for flocks and crops and were uninhabited until miners arrived. The accessible mineralized districts were developed first, and within those districts the more accessible mineral outcrops were usually discovered first; many lay within one mile of pastoralists' homesteads, shepherds' huts, and, above all, roads leading into the interiors. Nevertheless, the discovery of mining fields lagged unevenly behind the coming of the first shepherds, teamsters, or timber-cutters to a region. Australia's first major copper field was discovered about five years after the first sheep-owner settled in the vicinity, Australia's first major silver-lead field was discovered about fifteen years after sheep-owners settled in the area, and the discovery of the first important gold and tin fields lagged more than thirty years behind the arrival of the first sheep-owners in the area.

Discusses the political economy in Australia during the 1920s. Concept of tariff as a device for taxing rural income to support the real wage; Effect of tariff on real wages; Different factor intensities of rural and manufacturing production; Comparative advantage in certain forms of land-intensive production to yield a per capita income and real wage.

A study of changes currently occurring in the structure of the Western Australian economy has recently been concluded at the Institute of Agriculture within the University of Western Australia. These changes were estimated using an input-output table constructed by Parker for 1958-59 as a basis. Subsequent changes in structure have been estimated indirectly on the basis of known values of production and components of final demand for the ten-year period 1956-57 to 1965-66. The 54-industry classification of the economy used by Parker has been retained in this analysis. This article outlines the technique used and assesses the results obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses how economist W.E. Hearn expressed his theoretical notions in terms of the political and economic controversies of his day in Australia. Opposition to government interference; Taxation and political policies; Education reform; Disposal of waste lands.

Australian studies of industrial, labour and economic history in the second half of the 19th century have long relied on manufacturing statistics published annually in the colonial Statistical Registers. This reliance could become even more pronounced through the influence of Professor N. G. Butlin, who drew heavily upon these sources. This article suggests, however, that these Statistic Registers are unreliable and indeed—for certain purposes—misleading. If this is so, some popular historical interpretations will have to be reviewed. We shall have to reconsider why Victoria adopted a protective tariff in the 1860s and also reconsider the subsequent effects of the tariff. We shall have to re-examine the effects of the gold-rushes on the growth of manufacturing. We shall have to reject much of Butlin's pioneering work on the rise of manufacturing in Victoria and Australia between 1861 and 1901, and we shall have to reconsider the role of manufacturing in the boom of the 1880s and the recovery from the depression of the 1890s. The statistics and the estimates based on them are also relevant to such questions as how manufacturing influenced the growth of cities, how urban living standards moved, and how the economic and social climate affected the growth of unionism and welfare legislation. Moreover, unless the manufacturing statistics are handled with a new discretion, the infection of error may spread to problems in local history, industrial history, colonial and national history; for these statistics are as basic to industrial history as detailed voting returns are to political history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores the extent to which domestic income adjustment can help balance external payments in Australia. Relevance to economic policy; Alignment of expectations; System of incentives in market economy.

Forecasts the economic potential of Australia's natural gas industry. Consumption of primary energy; Markets, reserves and minimum pipeline investments in natural gas; Determination of fuels prices.

Industries characterized by differentiated oligopoly and dominated by multi-product firms are intractable to economic analysis. Yet they are the most common type of industry. The present article analyses the structure and conduct of one such industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the usefulness of gross national product statistics in the measurement of economic growth in Australia. Concept of price relativity; Impact of changes in terms of trade on purchasing power of earnings from exports; Absence of productivity allowance in measurement of output of public services.

Forecasts the prices of Australia's wool. Original weights and standard deviations of forecasting errors; Coefficients of variation and average fractional error for optimal set of weights; Coefficients of variation and average fractional error for comparative model.