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We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between firms' systematic risk exposures and their time-varying debt maturity choices, as well as its implications for the term structure of credit spreads. Compared to short-term debt, long-term debt helps reduce rollover risks, but its illiquidity raises the costs of financing. With both default risk and liquidity costs changing over the business cycle, our calibrated model implies that debt maturity is pro-cyclical, firms with high systematic risk favor longer debt maturity, and that these firms will have more stable maturity structures over the cycle. Moreover, pro-cyclical maturity variation can significantly amplify the impact of aggregate shocks on the term structure of credit spreads, especially for firms with high beta, high leverage, or a lumpy maturity structure. We provide empirical evidence for the model predictions on both debt maturity and credit spreads.

We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment remarks in the form of debt collections from private agencies and attachments from private and public agencies and cover all Norwegian limited liability companies for the period 2010–2021. We use logistic Lasso regressions to select bankruptcy predictors from a large set of potential predictors, comparing a highly sparse variable selection criterion (“the one standard error rule”) with the minimum cross validation error (CVE) criterion. Moreover, we examine the implications of using debt shares as weights in the estimation and find that weighting has a large impact on variable selection and predictions and, generally, leads to lower out-of-sample prediction errors than alternative approaches. Debt weighting combined with sparse variable selection gives the best predictions of the risk of bankruptcy in firms holding high shares of the bank debt.

This paper studies the interactions between corporate law and VC exits by acquisitions, an increasingly common source of VC-related litigation. We find that transactions by VC funds under liquidity pressure are characterized by (i) a substantially lower sale price; (ii) a greater probability of industry outsiders as acquirers; (iii) a positive abnormal return for acquirers. These features indicate the existence of fire sales, which satisfy VCs' liquidation preferences but hurt common shareholders, leaving board members with conflicting fiduciary duties and litigation risks. Exploiting an important court ruling that establishes the board’s fiduciary duties to common shareholders as a priority, we find that after the ruling maturing VCs become less likely to exit by fire sales and they distribute cash to their investors less timely. However, VCs experience more difficult fundraising ex-ante, highlighting the potential cost of a common-favoring regime. Overall the evidence has important implications for optimal fiduciary duty design in VC-backed start-ups.

CEOs of large firms filing for bankruptcy are more likely to exit the executive labor market after bankruptcy and experience substantial compensation losses (Eckbo et al., 2016). While the fear of reputational scarring can lead to lower risk-taking and manifest itself as lower rates of entrepreneurship and job growth, the mechanisms through which bankruptcy affects CEO careers are not well understood. In this paper, we examine the effect of "random bankruptcy" decisions on small and medium-sized business CEOs' careers. By random, we mean job separation for reasons unrelated to a firm or CEO quality but rather through a court's bankruptcy decision. We control for the unobserved ability of bankrupt and non-bankrupt CEOs by using randomly assigned judges' propensity to liquidate firms as an instrument. We then combine our sample of CEOs with administrative records containing granular information on income, wealth, new employers and job titles. Our results show that bankrupt CEOs find new employment quickly, but that a large share exits the executive labor force. On average, bankruptcy reduces CEOs' variable income components. While the net present value of CEOs' loss of future capital income equals more than 60 percent of annual pre-bankruptcy income, we observe no effect on wage income. We find that displaced CEOs are more likely to reallocate to new industries and new geographic areas, suggesting that managerial skills are portable. We explore how the income and employment effects of bankruptcy vary with industry conditions. Consistent with the executive labor market using bankruptcy as a noisy signal of managerial ability, we find the displacement effect is stronger when industry conditions are good. Our evidence is consistent with the presence of information frictions that could entail important social costs.

We explore Lithuanian credit register data and two bank closures to provide a novel estimate of firms' bank-switching costs and a novel identification of the hold-up problem. We show that when a distressed bank's closure forced firms to switch, these firms started borrowing at lower interest rates immediately and permanently. This suggests that firms were held up and overcharged exante, and reveals the lower bound of their ex-ante switching costs. Opaquer firms were overcharged more, which suggests that information asymmetries significantly contribute to switching costs. In line with banks' reputational concerns, a healthy bank's closure revealed no overcharging. To policy-makers, our results suggest potential benefits of distressed banks' closures.

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. Supplemental material at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tim_Xiao/publication/337157228_The_Impact_of_Default_Dependency_and_Collateralization_on_Asset_Pricing_and_Credit_Risk_Modeling/links/5ef0a4fc299bf1faac6cada3/The-Impact-of-Default-Dependency-and-Collateralization-on-Asset-Pricing-and-Credit-Risk-Modeling.pdf, https:://ia801501.us.archive.org/12/items/default-dependency-collateralization-7/default-dependency-collateralization-7.pdf

The paper compares provision of public infrastructure via public-private partnerships (PPPs) with provision under government management. Due to soft budget constraints of government management, PPPs exert more effort and therefore have a cost advantage in building infrastructure. At the same time, hard budget constraints for PPPs introduce a bankruptcy risk and bankruptcy costs. Consequently, if bankruptcy costs are high, PPPs may be less efficient than public management, although this does not result from PPPs’ higher interest costs.

We employ a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms to forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown. A 3-month lockdown generates an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP, and 17% of sample firms, which employ 8.8% of the sample’s employees, become financially distressed. Distress is more frequent for small and medium-sized enterprises, for firms with high pre-COVID-19 leverage, and for firms belonging to the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors. Listed companies are less likely to enter distress, whereas the correlation between distress rates and family firm ownership is unclear. (JEL G01, G32, G33)

This paper documents that resource reallocation across firms is an important mechanism through which creditor rights affect real outcomes. I exploit the staggered adoption of an international convention that provides globally consistent strong creditor protection for aircraft finance. After this reform, country-level productivity in the aviation sector increases by 12%, driven mostly by across-firm reallocation. Productive airlines borrow more, expand, and adopt new technology at the expense of unproductive ones. Such reallocation is facilitated by (i) easier and quicker asset redeployment; and (ii) the influx of foreign financiers offering innovative financial products to improve credit allocative efficiency. I further document an increase in competition and an improvement in the breadth and the quality of products available to consumers.

This paper identifies a new channel through which bankrupt firms impose negative externalities on non-bankrupt peers. The bankruptcy and liquidation of a retail chain weakens the economies of agglomeration in any given local area, reducing the attractiveness of retail centers for remaining stores leading to contagion of financial distress. We find that companies with greater geographic exposure to bankrupt retailers are more likely to close stores in affected areas. We further show that the effect of these externalities on non-bankrupt peers is higher when the affected stores are smaller and are operated by firms with poor financial health.

Previous studies targeting accuracy improvement of default models mainly focused on the choice of the explanatory variables and the statistical approach. We alter the focus to the choice of the dependent variable. We particularly explore whether the common practice (in literature) of using proxies for default events (bankruptcy or delisting) to increase sample size indeed improves accuracy. We examine four definitions of financial distress and show that each definition carries considerably different characteristics. We discover that rating agencies effort to measure correctly the timing of default is valuable. In predicting default and in explaining CDS spreads, a default model significantly outperforms any other type of financial-distress model, despite being estimated on a substantially smaller sample (72 defaults compared to 409 bankruptcies and 923 delistings).

The tax laws of most developed countries are debt biased since firms can deduct interest on debt but not on equity. This bias is known to distort investment decisions. However, less is known about how the debt tax shield affects the ownership of assets when bidders differ financial expertise and thus in optimal use of leverage. We show that the debt tax shield need not always distort ownership efficiency. Assets end up with the socially preferred owner when differences in financial and productive expertise between bidders are small and better financial expertise reduces expected bankruptcy costs.

We analyze a comprehensive sample of more than 10,000 U.S. OTC stocks. We provide much needed descriptive evidence on this market and show that the OTC market is a large, diverse, and dynamic trading environment with a rich set of regulatory and disclosure regimes, comprising venue rules and state laws beyond SEC regulation. We also exploit the institutional richness of the OTC market and analyze two key dimensions of market quality, liquidity and crash risk, across firms and regulatory regimes. We find that OTC firms that are subject to stricter regulatory regimes and disclosure requirements have higher market quality (higher liquidity and lower crash risk). Our analysis points to an important trade-off in regulating the OTC market and protecting investors: Lowering regulatory requirements (e.g., for disclosure) reduces the compliance burden for smaller firms, but also reduces market quality.

This paper analyzes the decision of firms to sell assets to fund investments (financing asset sales). For a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms during the 1971-2010 period, we document new stylized facts about financing asset sales that cannot be explained by traditional motives for selling assets, such as financial distress or financing constraints. Using a structural model of financing, investment, and acroeconomic risk, we show that financing asset sales attenuate the debt overhang problem, because asset sale financed investments imply lower wealth transfers from equity to debt than otherwise identical but equity financed investments. This novel motive to reduce the debt overhang problem can explain how financing asset sales relate to firm characteristics and business cycles. We also confirm with simulated panels of model firms that are structurally similar to their empirical counterpart that they indeed feature the dynamic patterns of financing asset sales we observe in the data for real firms.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the aftermath of business failure (BF) by addressing: how the individual progressed and developed new ventures, how individuals changed business behaviors and practices in light of a failure, and what was the effect of previous failure on the individual’s decisions to embark on subsequent ventures. Design/methodology/approach The authors resort to qualitative methods to understand the aftermath of BF from a retrospective point of a successful entrepreneur. Specifically, the authors undertook semi-structured interviews to six entrepreneurs, three from the north of Europe and three from the south and use interpretative phenomenological analysis. Findings The authors found that previous failure impacted individuals strongly, being shaped by the individual’s experience and age, and their perception of blame for the failure. An array of moderator costs was identified, ranging from antecedents to institutions that were present in the individual’s lives. The outcomes are directly relatable to the failed experience by the individual. The authors also found that the failure had a significant effect on the individual’s career path. Originality/value While predicting the failure of healthy firms or the discovery of the main determinants that lead to such an event have received increasingly more attention in the last two decades, the focus on the consequences of BF is still lagging behind. The present study fills this gap by analyzing the aftermath of BF.

This article proposes new model checks for dynamic count models. Both portmanteau and omnibus-type tests for lack of residual autocorrelation are considered. The resulting test statistics are asymptotically pivotal when innovations are uncorrelated but possibly exhibit higher order serial dependence. Moreover, the tests are able to detect local alternatives converging to the null at the parametric rate T− 1/2, with T the sample size. The finite sample performance of the test statistics are examined by means of Monte Carlo experiments. Using a dataset on U.S. corporate bankruptcies, the proposed tests are applied to check if different risk models are correctly specified. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Bankruptcy is an essential screening mechanism for developing economies. This paper focuses on the way bankruptcy is managed in Tunisia, a country characterized by the importance of its banking sector. We hand collected data on a set of Tunisian firms that went bankrupt between 1995-2009. We gathered original and unique information on the firms’ characteristics, the causes of default, the values of assets, the structure of claims, the recovery rates, and the bankruptcy costs. We use this information to answer several questions (those questions being investigated both directly, and by controlling for any risk of selection bias): 1) are the Tunisian bankruptcy procedures able to generate high total recoveries? 2) Are the secured creditors (mostly banks) well-enough protected under bankruptcy? 3) Do the secured creditors influence the choice between liquidation and reorganization? 4) To what extent the recoveries of the secured creditors compete (or not) with the ones of the other classes of creditors? We find that the Tunisian reorganization procedures are able to generate substantial recoveries, but those are mainly captured by the preferential claims (employees and public claims). This is coherent with the authorities’ willingness to improve social protection, but this raises concerns as the Tunisian firms are mainly financed by bankers. Our analysis shows that the secured creditors are poorly protected under bankruptcy: they rank almost last in the priority order of repayment, and their recovery rate is similar to one of the unsecured creditors. We also find that the rather high level of recovery rate is mainly attributable to the reorganization procedures. We finally find that the court’s choice between reorganization and liquidation is not influenced by the structure of claims. Thus, in Tunisia, the creditors are losing hand once bankruptcy is triggered. The likely consequences on development are twofold: first, higher risks of capital misallocation and of credit rationing; second, stronger incentives for the banks to prioritize informal workouts.

It is a popular perception that administrative receivers and their appointors hold «too much» power in relation to troubled companies. Many who hold this view have called for the reform of insolvency law in order to redress the balance of power. This issue is timely, because insolvency law is currently under review. This article argues that although the law's formal structure is imbalanced, it can nevertheless generate savings for parties, by allowing a concentrated creditor who has invested in information-gathering about the debtor to conduct a private insolvency procedure. It is suggested that this procedure is likely to be more efficient than one conducted by a state official, and that it is likely to reduce the costs of debt finance, a matter of particular importance for small and medium-sized businesses. Empirical data are presented from 26 interviews with practitioners, which shed further light on the operation of receivership. Finally, the current law is compared with possible alternatives. It is argued that the case for wide-ranging reform is not made out.

Recent theoretical literature has debated the desirability of permitting debtors to contract with lenders over control rights in bankruptcy. Proponents point to the monitoring benefits brought from concentrating control rights in the hands of a single lender. Detractors point to the costs imposed on other creditors by a senior claimant's inadequate incentives to maximise net recoveries. The UK provides the setting for a natural experiment regarding these theories. Until recently, UK bankruptcy law permitted firms to give complete ex post control to secured creditors, through a procedure known as Receivership. Receivership was replaced in 2003 by a new procedure, Administration, which was intended to introduce greater accountability to unsecured creditors to the governance of bankrupt firms, through a combination of voting rights and fiduciary duties. We present empirical findings from a hand-coded sample of 348 bankruptcies from both before and after the change in the law, supplemented with qualitative interview data. We find robust evidence that whilst gross realisations have increased following the change in the law, these have tended to be eaten up by concomitantly increased bankruptcy costs. The net result has been that creditor recoveries have remained unchanged. This implies that dispersed and concentrated creditor governance in bankruptcy may be functionally equivalent.

The paper analyzes the welfare implications of a policy of mandatory disclosure of information on the value of directly held investments by banks. It is based on a model of payments in a network where the value of a bank’s equity depends on the value of directly held investment of its trading partners, i.e. there is “contagion”. Additionally banks have a profitable investment project for which they need funding from outsiders, but due to agency problems they can only obtain financing if their equity is large enough. Furthermore, banks can, at a cost, disclose the information of their directly held investments. We find that there are equilibrium with no disclosure and no funding for new investments projects. Yet when the disclosure costs are not too large, mandatory disclosure increases ex-ante welfare of banks and outside investors if and only if contagion is severe. The difference for the social and private benefits is that an individual bank’s disclosure of the value of its directly held investment can be uninformative due to counterparty default risk. Instead, mandatory disclosure of information by all banks allows outside investors to assess the financial architecture of the system and direct their funding to the solvent banks.

While the empirical literature has often documented a “default anomaly”, i.e. a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, standard theory suggests that default risk should be priced in the cross-section. In this paper, we provide an explanation for this apparent puzzle using a new approach. First we calculate monthly physical probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample of European firms. Second we decompose these estimated PDs into systematic and idiosyncratic components; we measure the systematic part as the sensitivity of the physical PD to an aggregate measure of default risk. While sorting stocks based on physical PDs confirms a possible default anomaly, we find that the relation between the systematic default risk and stock returns is in fact positive. Our results therefore suggest that risker stocks, as measured by the physical PDs, will tend to underperform because they have on average lower exposures to aggregate default risk. Their riskiness is mostly idiosyncratic and can be diversified away.

Using supervisory loan-level data on corporate loans, we show that banks facing high levels of non-performing loans relative to their capital and provisions were more likely to grant forbearance measures to the riskiest group of borrowers. More specifically, we find that risky borrowers are more likely to get an increase in the overall limit or the maturity of a loan product from a distressed lender. As a second step, we analyse the effectiveness of this practice in reducing the probability of default. We show that the most common measure of forbearance is effective in the short run but no forbearance measure significantly reduces the probability of default in the long run. Our evidence also suggests that forbearance and new lending are substitutes for banks, as high shares of forbearance are negatively correlated with new lending to the same group of borrowers.

We study how network structure affects the dynamics of collateral in presence of rehypothecation. We build a simple model wherein banks interact via chains of repo contracts and use their proprietary collateral or re-use the collateral obtained by other banks via reverse repos. In this framework, we show that total collateral volume and its velocity are affected by characteristics of the network like the length of rehypothecation chains, the presence or not of chains having a cyclic structure, the direction of collateral flows, the density of the network. In addition, we show that structures where collateral flows are concentrated among few nodes (like in core-periphery networks) allow large increases in collateral volumes already with small network density. Furthermore, we introduce in the model collateral hoarding rates determined according to a Value-at-Risk (VaR) criterion, and we then study the emergence of collateral hoarding cascades in different networks. Our results highlight that network structures with highly concentrated collateral flows are also more exposed to large collateral hoarding cascades following local shocks. These networks are therefore characterized by a trade-off between liquidity and systemic risk.

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables. These links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics. During downturns, the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases, but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change. although loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior, the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds, albeit around a lower average level. This variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios.

There should be a strong correlation between return and risk. Tools have been developed in order to assess both the return and risk. Yet, the analysis of risk-return correlation is not easy to perform, as the return usually regards the past performance of the business, while the risk regards the future. In order to answer these issues, a survey has been performed in this paper, on nine Romanian companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange. Three score functions have been used in order to assess the bankruptcy risk (Altman 1968, Conan and Holder, Anghel) and three ratios of return (return on sales, return on assets, return on equity). The period analyzed ranged from 2007 to 2013. The research allowed verifying the assumptions and highlighting the weaknesses of the tools used to evaluate the risk.

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines EDF and accounting variables and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. In-sample forecast accuracy tests confirm the main results. The out-of-sample evidence also suggests that the model yields the highest predictive ability during financial crisis when using data prior to the financial crisis.

Today the issue of determining the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural companies in Ukraine is particularly acute because many of them have a difficult financial situation. The article is to develop methodical approaches to the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises. There are summarized the theoretical approaches to the definition of category 'bankruptcy', 'insolvency', 'insolvency of an entity'. There are analyzed the basic models of assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of companies, found the factors that limit their application in practice. There is offered the method of predicting the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural companies, which takes into account sectoral specifics and allows classifying entities of investigated area depending on the susceptibility to bankruptcy. There is evaluated the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural companies in Poltava region according to the author's method and methods of domestic and foreign scientists.

In this paper, we compare the equity returns of dividend-paying and non-dividend paying firms. We find no unconditional return difference even though non-dividend paying firms have many characteristics that suggest high risk. Equivalently, because non-dividend paying firms have high risk-metrics, their returns are abnormally low compared with dividend-paying firms. The reason for these anomalies is that a larger fraction of non-dividend paying firms are in financial distress and, despite high distress-risk and high growth-leverage, firms in financial distress have low returns from high volatility that decreases the optionsleverage of equity. Removing firms in financial distress, returns for non-dividend paying firms increase relative to dividend-paying firms and abnormal returns disappear. We argue that part of the reason that firms in financial-distress have high volatility that leads to low returns is managerial risk-shifting that takes form as unexpectedly high capital expenditure rates.

El presente estudio tiene por objeto analizar la incidencia de la deuda bancaria versus deuda comercial en el tiempo de resolución de los concursos en Espana. Para ello se utiliza una muestra de 567 empresas que han entrado en concurso entre 2004 y 2009. Los resultados obtenidos revelan un comportamiento diferenciado de los acreedores bancarios y comerciales,tanto enfuncióndelniveldedeuda como deltipo de resolución. Así, mientras que los primeros permiten un alargamiento del proceso, los segundos tratan de acortarlo. Además, estos resultados se mantienen en la muestra de empresas que se liquidan, mientrasque enlas empresasque se reorganizansolo es relevante la actitudde los acreedores comerciales, los cuales además tienen un comportamiento diferente en función del tipo de resolución. / This work has the aim of analyzing the influence of bank and trade debt in the duration of the process of bankruptcy in Spain. To that end, a sample of 567 firms, that fill in bankruptcy between 2004 and 2009, is used. The results show a different behavior between banks and trade creditors, considering the level of their debt and the type of bankruptcy resolution. Thus, whereas the former allow a lengthening of the process, the latter try to reduce it. In addition, those results remain in the sample of firms that liquidate, whereas in the firms that reach an agreement, only the attitude of trade creditors is relevant, who besides, have a different behavior depending on the type of resolution.

Why do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This paper answers this question by analysing the consequences of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s for 143 banks, of which 37 failed. Banks’ choices in balance sheet composition, corporate governance practices and shareholder liability regimes were found to have a significant impact on their chances of experiencing distress. Banks bore a higher probability of failing if, on the eve of the crisis, they: were highly performing; were highly leveraged; had fewer interlocking directorates with non-banks; and concentrated their managerial interlocks with highly profitable banks. Banks which chose to adopt shareholder liability regimes with unpaid capital were more likely to experience distress, but could mitigate this risk by keeping higher portions of their equity unpaid. Receiver operating characteristic analysis shows that interlock characteristics in particular have a high predictive power.

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on the one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

It is important to determine whether firms realize assets within a short period to settle liabilities when the debts are due. Most common indicators used to measure liquidity are the current and quick ratios. However, the cash conversion cycle period (CCC) may be a better approach. This study chooses two Taiwan companies in food industries: a listed company (Uni-President) and a delisted company (Tsin Tsin) to compare performance based on liquidity indicators. We examine financial data of the two companies from 1996 to 2005 (Tsin Tsin was delisted in 2006), to calculate their current ratio, quick ratio and cash conversion cycles. The research results show that CCC indicators better reflect the company's actual short term debt-paying ability and liquidity.

In this article, we studied the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the observed corporate births for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL). We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013 in order to establish the impact of the fiscal and monetary policy adopted by the Romanian government in times of economic crisis on the firms’ demography. The corporate birth rate is an endogenous variable in a linear function model with five exogenous macroeconomic variables such as the CPI, the loans ratio to GDP, the FDI, the long term interest rate, tax rate to GDP and the lags of the dependent variable. The main finding is that the variance of the corporate birth rate variable is negatively correlated with the variances of CPI in the current month and the interest rate two months lagged. We also determined that the variance of the dependent variable was positively correlated with the variances of the loans rate two months lagged, tax rate four months ago and FDI two months lagged and FDI in the current period.

Addressing the financial performance must undergo beyond the classical analysis, on the basis of profit and loss account, and integrate ability of a company to cope with debts. Given the lack of homogeneity of the individual values of the indicators calculated for liquidity, solvency, and indebtedness, recorded for each company listed and traded on Bucharest Stock Exchange during the period 2006-2013, three models of score functions were developed, in order to track the company's ability to cope with debts.

In this article we study the relationship between microeconomic factors (financial ratios) and SMEs’ insolvencies in Romania using logistic regression model to predict the likelihood of SMEs bankruptcy in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis. We conducted a logit econometric model for each size category of SMEs (micro, small and medium). The main finding is that the return on assets (ROA) and total debt ratio (TDR) across the three size categories of SMEs are the statistically significant key indicators for the SMEs insolvencies. The best logistic model is the one for small firms because the number of fair estimations represents 80.6%.

We develop a variation of the macroeconomic model of banking in Gertler and Kiyotaki (2011) that allows for liquidity mismatch and bank runs as in Diamond and Dybvig (1983). As in Gertler and Kiyotaki, because bank net worth fluctuates with aggregate production, the spread between the expected rates of return on bank assets and deposits fluctuates countercyclically. However, because bank assets are less liquid than deposits, bank runs are possible as in Diamond and Dybvig. Whether a bank run equilibrium exists depends on bank balance sheets and an endogenous liquidation price for bank assets. While in normal times a bank run equilibrium may not exist, the possibility can arise in a recession. We also analyze the effects of anticipated bank runs. Overall, the goal is to present a framework that synthesizes the macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches to banking and banking instability.

Purpose – The paper will addresses the issue of inactivity and will try to detect its causes using econometric models. The Banking sector of Europe has been under transformation or restructuring for almost half a century. Design/methodology/approach – Probit models and descriptive statistics have been used to create a system that predicts inactivity. The data was collected from Bankscope. Findings – The results of the econometric models show that from the six groups of indicators, four have been found to be statistically important (performance, size, ownership, corporate governance). These findings are consistent with the theory. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that Bankscope does not provide any longitudinal data regarding ownership, management structure and there are some many missing values before 2007 for some of the financial ratios and data. Originality/value – The paper's value and innovation is that it has given a systemic approach to find indicators of inactivity.

En este documento se realiza una medición dinámica del riesgo sistémico bajo un enfoque macroprudencial para los principales bancos del sistema financiero peruano, en el periodo de 1996 a 2013. Se estiman las pérdidas esperadas de patrimonio a un nivel de probabilidad, condicional a un escenario de estrés en el mercado (Marginal Expected Shortfall, MES). En tal escenario, se construyen ratios de apalancamiento y pérdidas esperadas individuales como proporción del sistema. Los resultados muestran que las dos crisis financieras consideradas en la muestra generaron patrones diferenciados en el MES, en el apalancamiento esperado y en las pérdidas esperadas de patrimonio respecto al total. En particular, los bancos con fuerte presencia de capitales extranjeros fueron los más sensibles a la reciente crisis financiera internacional.

Financial equilibria of an enterprise is constantly a target of any manager as it depends on the viability and prosperity of the business. If in the past financial equlibria were seen only through comparison of static working capital and working capital requirements and its resultant net tresaury with the adoption of IAS and especially after the adoption of IFRSs, requires a new approach to namely a dynamic approach balances seen in terms of short-term liquidity, long term solvency terms and by linking performance with the company's cash flow. That is why in this paper we present the three components of the dynamic balance of tourism enterprises, namely: the liquidity balance, equilibrium and balance the performance solvency and cah flow.

The near-failure on September 16, 2008, of American International Group (AIG) was an iconic moment in the financial crisis. Two large bets on real estate made with funding vulnerable to bank-run-like dynamics pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. AIG used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, ultimately losing at least $21 billion and threatening the solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold insurance on multisector collateralized debt obligations, backed by real estate assets, ultimately losing more than $30 billion. These activities were apparently motivated by a belief that AIG's real estate bets would not suffer defaults and were “money-good.” We find that these securities have in fact suffered write-downs and that the stark “money-good” claim can be rejected. Ultimately, both liquidity and solvency were issues for AIG.

The problem of insolvency and over-indebtedness has long been present in most of the world economies. Number of insolvent businesses, as well as the value of unsettled obligations has been steadily rising in the past decade. On the other hand legal business environment framework is considered to have an important facilitating/limiting role in treating the problems, arising from the situations of insolvency and over-indebtedness of businesses. The insolvency legislation and monitoring as an essential part of such framework belongs to the most dynamic fields of contemporary research interest. The goal of this paper is to detect the most reformative national economies of the European Union in business insolvency management dealing with speediness and cost management of the resolution process. Th at should reveal the features of a business environment as a platform for finding better indebtedness management possibilities. The methodology entails using World Bank data on efficiency in resolving insolvency across all EU national economies in the period of 12 years. Scoring system is developed and applied to the data.As a result, the countries are ranked according to the intensity of their reformative efforts in the field of insolvency management in the researched period. The features of the highest ranking countries will be analyzed, as the best practices of facilitating role of such frameworks.

A problem more common in Romanian companies, and not only in the near future economic and financial crisis proved to be lack of cash, or in other words their lack of ability to cope with short-term debt. The problem became even more acute in the next period, the period specified triggering nationwide economic crisis and beyond. The lack of liquidity has become more persistent as these firms, the more likelihood of insolvency and bankruptcy risk becoming even more probable. The present work aimed to analyze the evolution of liquidity at several Romanian companies taken as reference elements and representativeness, and the correlation between liquidity ratios and other indicators that define the heritage structure and the efficiency with which the company is working within these companies. This study while pursuing economic structure and evolution through the bank debt, both short term and long term.

This article has an aim to assess credit default prediction on the banking market in Bosnia and Herzegovina nationwide as well as on its constitutional entities (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska). Ability to classify companies info different predefined groups or finding an appropriate tool which would replace human assessment in classifying companies into good and bad buckets has been one of the main interests on risk management researchers for a long time. We investigated the possibility and accuracy of default prediction using traditional statistical methods logistic regression (logit) and multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and compared their predictive abilities. The results show that the created models have high predictive ability. For logit models, some variables are more influential on the default prediction than the others. Return on assets (ROA) is statistically significant in all four periods prior to default, having very high regression coefficients, or high impact on the model’s ability to predict default. Similar results are obtained for MDA models. It is also found that predictive ability differs between logistic regression and multiple discriminant analysis.

The use of non-parametric methodologies, the introduction of non-financial variables, and the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations have recently experienced a surge of interest in the bankruptcy literature. However, no research on default prediction has yet focused on micro-entities (MEs), despite such firms’ importance in the global economy. This paper builds the first bankruptcy model especially designed for MEs by using a wide set of accounts from 1999 to 2008 and applying artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our findings show that ANNs outperform the traditional logistic regression (LR) models. In addition, we also report that, thanks to the introduction of non-financial predictors related to age, the delay in filing accounts, legal action by creditors to recover unpaid debts, and the ownership features of the company, the improvement with respect to the use of solely financial information is 3.6%, which is even higher than the improvement that involves the use of the best ANN (2.6%).

In this paper we study firm dynamics and industry equilibrium when firms under financial distress face a non-trivial choice between alternative bankruptcy procedures. Given limited commitment and asymmetric information, financial contracts specify default, renegotiation and reorganization policies. Renegotiation entails a redistribution of social surplus, while reorganization takes the form of enhanced creditor monitoring. Firms with better contract histories are less likely to default, but, contingent on default, firms with better outside options successfully renegotiate, in line with the empirical evidence. Unless monitoring is too costly, renegotiation leads to reorganization, which resembles actual bankruptcy practice. We calibrate the model to match certain aspects of the data on bankruptcy and firm dynamics in the U.S. Our counterfactual experiments suggest that poorly designed bankruptcy arrangements can increase substantially the fraction of firms facing financial constraints, with sizable negative implications for aggregate output and TFP.

In our work, we compare the predictive power of different bankruptcy prediction models built on financial indicators calculable from businesses’ accounting data on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model. For modelling, we use data-mining methods often applied in bankruptcy prediction: neural networks (NN), support vector machines (SVM) and the rough set theory (RST) capable of rule-based classification. The point of departure for our comparative analysis is the practical finding that black-box-type data-mining methods typically show better classification performance than models whose results are easy to interpret, i.e. there seems to be a kind of trade-off between the interpretability and predictive power of bankruptcy models. Empirical results lead us to conclude that the RST approach can be a competitive alternative to black-box-type SVM and NN models. In our research, we did not find any major trade-off between the interpretability and predictive performance of bankruptcy models on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model.

The financing decision is taken based on the expectations concerning the future cash-flows generated in the operating activity, which should provide coverage for the debt service and allow for an increase of the shareholders’ wealth. Still, the future cash-flows are affected by risk, which makes the sensitivity analysis a very important part of the decision process. The current research sets to evaluate the sensitivity of the payment capacity to variations of the payments for raw materials and consumables. The study employs 391 forecasted yearly cash-flow statements collected from 50 companies together with detailed information concerning the hypotheses of the forecasts. The results of the study allow for the establishment of benchmarks for the payment capacity’s sensitivity, the determination of the mechanisms through which the variation of payments for raw materials and consumables impacts the payment capacity, as well as the identification of the possible causes of such a variation.

En este artículo aportamos evidencia empírica de predicción del fallo financiero en empresas no financieras. Hemos desarrollado diversos modelos para la evaluación del riesgo de fallo financiero en PYME. Contrastada la capacidad predictiva de modelos paramétricos (análisis discriminante multivariante, LOGIT) comparando con la información aportada por la auditoria. Los modelos están fundamentados en variables financieras relevantes y ratios, de lógica financiera y en situaciones de estrés. Examinamos una muestra aleatoria de empresas, comprobando la capacidad predictiva en distintos momentos del tiempo, verificando si los modelos muestran señales anticipadas de futuros eventos de fallo financiero, simulando el impacto de los costes de los errores de estimación en función del modelo previsional. Los resultados sugieren que nuestros modelos son efectivos en el corto y medio plazo, ofreciendo mayor capacidad predictiva que las auditorías externas., This paper offers an exhaustive analysis of the effectiveness of several models and methodologies that are commonly used to forecast financial failure: Linear, MDA, Logit, and artificial neural network. Our main aim is to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses, in terms of technical reliability and error cost; to do so, models are estimated and validated, and then used to perform an artificial simulation to evaluate which of them causes the lower cost of errors. Reliability is examined in four forecast horizons, to collect evidences about temporal (in) stability. We also check the relative advantages of financial ratios-based models, versus audit-based forecast models. Our results suggest that all models attain a high performance rate; however, artificial neural networks’ forecasts seem to be more stable, both in temporal and cross-sectional perspectives.

The failure of a company, whether insolvency or bankruptcy, has been a topic featured by countless researchers from various fields over time. In an attempt to counteract this negative phenomenon most of the studies focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models, omitting the actual reasons that caused the insolvency. In the present article we will try to determine the main reasons causing insolvency among the largest companies in Romania in 2013. In this purpose, we made a Top 10 Romanian companies which became insolvent in 2013 taking into consideration the report published by Euler Hermes in 2014 “Economic Outlook. Insolvency World Cup 2014: Who will score fewer insolvencies?”. Subsequently, we examine “The Report on the causes and circumstances that led to the insolvency of the debtor" for each individual company from the proposed top. After analyzing the reports for all ten companies studied we found that an increasing of indebtedness and debt collection period, with disinvestment and poor management were the main causes that led to the insolvency in 2013 of the Romanian companies studied.

The current study evaluates the potential of the labor productivity in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The population subjected to the analysis included all companies form Timis County with yearly sales of over 2200 Euros. The interest for the labor productivity was based on the recommendations of the scientific literature, as well as on the availability of information concerning its values to all stakeholders. The event on which the research was focused was represented by the manifestation of bankruptcy 2 years after the date of the financial statements of reference. All tests were performed over a paired sample of 1424 companies. The methodology employed in evaluating the potential of the labor productivity was based on the general accuracy ensured by the ratio (63.2%) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (0.665). The results confirm the practical utility of the labor productivity in the prediction of bankruptcy.