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This paper uses laboratory experiments to directly test a central prediction of disclosure theory: that market forces can lead businesses to voluntarily provide information about the quality of their products. This theoretical prediction is based on unraveling arguments, which require that consumers hold correct beliefs about non-disclosed information. Instead, we find that receivers are insufficiently skeptical about non-disclosed information, and as a consequence, senders do not always disclose their private information. However, when subjects are informed about non-disclosed information after each round, behavior slowly converges to full unraveling. This convergence appears to be driven by an asymmetric response in receiver actions after learning that they were profitably deceived. Despite the change in receiver behavior, stated beliefs about sender strategies remain insufficiently skeptical, which suggests that while direct and immediate feedback induces equilibrium behavior, it does not reduce strategic naïveté.

application/pdf, 本論文は，多様な帰納的推論の動学を統合的に扱うモデル研究に関する昨今の展開を，我々の見出した知見も交えながら，平易に解説することを目的とする。我々の知る限り，このように多様な帰納的推論方法を統合的に扱う研究内容を日本語で解説した文献は見当たらない。本研究分野の特に有力ないくつかの研究論文は，若干，その基礎的構造が互いに異なっている。我々は，それらを統一的な枠組みの中で表現し直し，数値例なども用いながら包括的に解説する。動学的意思決定を含む経済・社会科学モデルの構築においては，ベイズ・ルール，事例ベース，その他の理論などをエージェントの将来予測手法として様々な思考方法を仮定する。そこで本論文では，測度論的な観点から，これらの予測手法の間の相対的な信憑性について考察する。本論文が，進化ゲーム理論などの適応的意思決定過程を含むモデル分析，マクロ経済学理論諸学派の間にある発想の相克，歴史的事例をベースに経済情勢を議論する経済史的研究，ビッグデータの活用により将来予測を試みる研究分野，これら様々な分野の研究者や大学院生の方々の参考となれば幸いである。

This paper studies whether and why algorithmic traders exhibit one of the most broadlydocumented behavioral puzzles – the disposition effect. We use trade data from the NASDAQ Copenhagen Stock Exchange merged with the weather data. We find that on average, the disposition effect for human traders is substantial and increases significantly on colder days, while for similarly-trading algorithms, it is insignificant and insensitive to the weather. This provides causal evidence of the link between human psychology and the disposition effect and suggests that algorithms can reduce psychology-related human errors. Considering the ongoing AI adoption, this may have broad implications.

Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. We develop simple statistical techniques for dealing with experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study, which conducts repeated incentivized surveys of the Caltech student body. We illustrate the impact of measurement error by replicating three classic experiments, and showing that results change substantially when measurement error is taken into account. Collectively, these results show that failing to properly account for measurement error may cause a field-wide bias: it may lead scholars to identify "new" effects and phenomena that are actually similar to those previously documented.

The theory of endogenous risk captures the idea that people self-protect and self-insure to reduce risks to human and environmental health. Herein we extend the standard static model to include the realities of (1) dynamic and multiple risks, and (2) non-expected utility (non-EU) behavior. Our results suggest both self-protection and self-insurance decrease for any one risk when cumulative dynamic risks are large and when multiple risks exist. If people are non-EU maximizers, self-protection and self-insurance also decline when they follow the conservatism heuristic (insufficient weighting of new information). In addition, if non-EU people over- and under-weight probabilities of bad states, they can invest non-linearly in self-protection and self-insurance.

In this paper, I show the existence and the characteristics of equilibrium in a non-renewable resource market where extraction costs are non-convex and market price is subject to stochastic shocks, an empirically relevant setting. In my model firms may be motivated to hold inventories to facilitate production smoothing, which allows them to continue producing at a smooth pace at any instant when extraction ceases, e.g. when reserves are exhausted. This aspect of the model then supports a competitive equilibrium in the presence of non-convex costs. Casual empirical evidence is provided that supports the central features of my model for a variety of non-renewable resources, lending credence to the explanation for equilibrium I propose.

This paper surveys models of markets in which some consumers are "savvy" while others are not. We discuss when the presence of savvy consumers improves the deals available to non-savvy consumers in the market (the case of search externalities), and when the non-savvy fund generous deals for savvy consumers (ripoff externalities). We also discuss when the two groups of consumers have aligned or divergent views about market interventions. The analysis covers two overlapping families of models: those which examine markets with price/quality dispersion, and those which exhibit forms of consumer hold-up.

Consumption in the time of Internet is characterized by extremely low search costs, leading to increased product diversity (the long tail) and large mainstream products (superstars). In this paper, I show how the mainstream taste can be catered by a niche product, while minority tastes can be mainstream. A competitive market with arbitrarily small search costs supplies a product design corresponding to the mainstream taste at a price that only mainstream buyers are willing to pay. Products corresponding to the taste of the minority are offered at lower price, and bought by several types of buyers.

We study joint marketing arrangements by competing firms who engage in price discrimination between consumers who patronize only one firm (single purchasing) and those who purchase from both competitors (bundle purchasers). Two types of joint marketing are considered. Firms either commit to a component-price that applies to bundle-purchasers and then firms set stand-alone prices for single purchasers; or firms commit to a rebate off their stand alone price that will be applied to bundle-purchasers, and then firms set their stand alone prices. Both methods allow firms to raise prices and earn higher profits. However, the effect of price discrimination on social welfare depends on how prices are chosen. The rebate joint marketing scheme increases joint purchasing, whereas bundle pricing diminishes bundle purchases. If the marginal social value of a bundle over a single purchase is large, the former increases total welfare. However, welfare can also increase with bundle pricing compared to non-discriminatory pricing.

Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction increases for firms below the threshold, while the probability of conviction decreases for firms above the threshold. Hence, legal uncertainty acts as a welfare enhancing screen and increases welfare. Legal uncertainty discourages some actions with low private benefits, while it encourages other actions with high private benefits.

This paper examines the consequences of international financial integration in a two–sector heterogeneous–agent dynamic general equilibrium model of occupational choice with financial constraints and idiosyncratic risks. We discuss the macroeconomic and distributional effects of financial market integration for small economies which differ only with respect to the tightness of constraints on the domestic credit market. The results contribute to an explanation of the ‘Lucas paradox’, i.e. the empirical observation of capital flowing from poor to rich countries, where lending countries are characterized by tighter domestic constraints and lower capital returns. Capital market liberalization goes along with adjustments towards the world return. Capital–exporting countries experience an increase in GNP, whereas the GDP effect is of ambiguous sign and driven by the tightness of the domestic credit market. Countries with less tight constraints or unlimited access to external business financing loose throughout integration due to a decline in aggregate output and a very unequal distribution of welfare gains and losses in the underlying heterogeneous–agent economy. We find that international integration is only beneficial for economies where financial constraints on entrepreneurial activity are very tight. Here, we observe an accumulation–driven rise in the entrepreneurship rate, overall positive output effects and welfare gains for all members of society.

In many industries, firms reward their customers for making referrals. We analyze the optimal policy mix of price, advertising intensity, and a referral fee for monopoly when buyers choose to what extent to refer other consumers to the firm. We find that the firm advertises less under referrals, but does not change its price from the monopoly level in an attempt to manage consumer referrals. We show that referral programs are Pareto-improving and that the firm underprovides referrals while supporting the socially optimum level of advertising. We extend the analysis to the case where consumer referrals can be targeted.

We model religious faith as a “demand for beliefs,” following the logic of the Pascalian wager. We show how standard experimental interventions linking financial consequences to falsifiable religious statements can elicit and characterize beliefs. We implemented this approach with members of a group that expected the “End of the World” to occur on May 21, 2011 by varying monetary prizes payable before and after May 21st. To our knowledge, this is the first incentivized elicitation of religious beliefs ever conducted. The results suggest that the members held extreme, sincere beliefs that were unresponsive to experimental manipulations in price.

This analysis deals with reform obstacles in general and with the particular challenges of institutional change under the conditions of Southern Europe in particular. It presents a survey on the possible drivers of reform resistance. This includes very different qualities of approaches ranging from classical economics and political-economic explanations to more innovative explanations linked to behavioral econom-ics. This classifying approach on potential reform obstacles is novel with respect to its broadness and systematization and offers a basis for the measurement and empirical testing. The subsequent part analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively to which extent the “Southern European regime” may imply a particular relevance of some of the potential reform obstacles classified before. While a generalization on common factors is always at risk of oversimplification, the literature clearly points towards some relevant similar-ities which contrast the southern EU member countries with the rest of Europe. Reform ability profiles quantify several of the reform obstacles (or reform drivers) to compare EU countries in their likely reform predisposition. These profiles confirm par-ticular Southern European weaknesses which tend to reduce the political-economic feasibility of long-term reforms: a low effectiveness in poverty protection, high inter-temporal discounting and uncertainty avoidance, a poor information level of the popu-lation and deeply shattered trust in national institutions. In a microeconometric analysis based on Eurobarometer survey data, the analysis leaves the highly aggregated level and looks into the individual heterogeneity in reform acceptance. It is shown that several of the reform obstacles identified in theory are also empirically correlated with the individual inclination to accept reforms. The perception of procedural fairness (i.e. satisfaction with the way democracy works) to-gether with trust are the keys for the acceptance of reforms. The impression that out-siders, contrary to theoretical expectations, do not push hard for institutional change is confirmed by the micro-data. These findings are not only helpful to understand the difficulties and constraints of reform strategies. They may also back the development of more convincing crisis strategies. At least for those countries where the trust in national elites, public admin-istration and the democratic system is almost fully eroded, a strong European in-volvement in guiding the reform process may help to foster acceptance. Of course, this only holds as long as the EU institutions have a trust advantage over national institu-tions – which empirically seems to be the case for some Southern European countries. Furthermore, there is a clear priority for a particular reform of the Southern European welfare state which should accompany the otherwise required cutback of benefits and privileges. This priority relates to a system of an effective poverty protection. Without a credible minimum insurance system it is unrealistic to expect that important groups of the population are willing to give up their old privileges. Finally, an important chal-lenge is to win the support of current outsiders whose reform supporting potential is so far not being realized.

We extend Kyle's (1985) model of insider trading to the case where liquidity provided by noise traders follows a general stochastic process. Even though the level of noise trading volatility is observable, in equilibrium, measured price impact is stochastic. If noise trading volatility is mean-reverting, then the equilibrium price follows a multivariate 'stochastic bridge' process, which displays stochastic volatility. This is because insiders choose to optimally wait to trade more aggressively when noise trading activity is higher. In equilibrium, market makers anticipate this, and adjust prices accordingly. More private information is revealed when volatility is higher. In time series, insiders trade more aggressively, when measured price impact is lower. Therefore, execution costs to uninformed traders can be higher when price impact is lower.

In contradiction to expected utility theory, various studies find that splitting events or attributes into subevents and subattributes can reverse a decision maker’s choices. Most notably, these effects can induce first-order stochastic dominated choices. Such violations of first-order stochastic dominance are framing effects, which expected utility theory, cumulative prospect theory and salience theory of choice under risk cannot account for. However, we propose a version of salience theory which unravels the underlying mechanism triggering such effects and which can explain the impact of event- and attribute-splitting on choices. Hereby, we provide further rationale for the broad validity of the salience mechanism and its strong descriptive power concerning human decision making.

We propose a new VAR identification strategy to study the impact of noise shocks on aggregate activity. We do so exploiting the informational advantage the econometrician has, relative to the economic agent. The latter, who is uncertain about the underlying state of the economy, responds to the noisy early data releases. The former, with the benefit of hindsight, has access to data revisions as well, which can be used to identify noise shocks. By using a VAR we can avoid making very specific assumptions on the process driving data revisions. We rather remain agnostic about it but make our identification strategy robust to whether data revisions are driven by noise or news. Our analysis shows that a surprising report of output growth numbers delivers a persistent and hump-shaped response of real output and unemployment. The responses are qualitatively similar but an order of magnitude smaller than those to a demand shock. Finally, our counterfactual analysis supports the view that it would not be possible to identify noise shocks unless different vintages of data are used.

Under Medicare Part D, senior citizens choose prescription drug insurance offered by numerous private insurers. We examine nonpoor enrollees' actions in 2006 and 2007 using panel data. Our sample reduced overspending by $298 on average, with gains by 81 percent of them. The greatest improvements were by those who overspent most in 2006 and by those who switched plans. Decisions to switch depended on individuals' overspending in 2006 and on individual-specific effects of changes in their current plans. The oldest consumers and those initiating medications for Alzheimer's disease improved by more than average, suggesting that real-world institutions help overcome cognitive limitations. (JEL D14, G22, H51, I13, I18)

We study the role of information transparency on fairness, welfare and efficiency in long-term employment relationships. When information on the firms’ productivity and surplus is revealed, wage offers represent larger shares of potential gains for workers who, in return, respond with higher performance. Workers respond not only to wages, but also to firms’ intentions concerning fairness. We find that, in long-term relationships, transparency is a strong mechanism to promote performance and welfare. It naturally improves relationships between firms and workers, increases workers’ welfare, profits from low productivity jobs and boosts the labor market efficiency.

We examine how agents allocate attention between private and public signals to reduce the uncertainty about observation noises when coordination is an important concern. In this setting, the attention allocation may not be monotone in endowed attention capacity. Agents may decrease their attention on or even ignore the more accurate signal when capacity increases. As a result, social welfare may decrease when they have more attention to process information. And it can be even higher when agents possess a finite amount of capacity than when they have an infinite amount of capacity. We derive sufficient and necessary conditions under which multiple equilibria emerge and study the implications of equilibrium multiplicity for macroeconomic policies.

Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house price changes positively affect transaction volume, unanticipated price changes have a negative effect. These findings give insights for the theories which try to explain the relationship between house prices and transaction volume. Our findings are inconsistent with the 'down-payment effect' approach developed by Stein (1995) and Ortalo-Magne and Rady (2006), and with the 'loss aversion behavior' approach discussed by Genesove and Mayer (2001). However, our results support the evidence of asymmetric decisions on the buyer and seller side documented in Case and Shiller (1988) and partially support the mechanisms in search and matching models.

A multi-modal search space can be defined as having multiple attraction basins – each basin has a single local optimum which is reached from all points in that basin when greedy local search is used. Optimization in multi-modal search spaces can then be viewed as a two-phase process. The first phase is exploration in which the most promising attraction basin is identified. The second phase is exploitation in which the best solution (i.e. the local optimum) within the previously identified attraction basin is attained. The goal of thresheld convergence is to improve the performance of search techniques during the first phase of exploration. The effectiveness of thresheld convergence has been demonstrated through applications to existing metaheuristics such as particle swarm optimization and differential evolution, and through the development of novel metaheuristics such as minimum population search and leaders and followers.

Various approaches have been introduced over the years to evaluate information in the expected utility framework. This paper analyzes the relationship between the degree of risk aversion and the selling price of information in a lottery setting with two actions. We show that the initial decision on the lottery as well as the attitude of the decision maker towards risk as a function of the initial wealth level are critical to characterizing this relationship. When the initial decision is to reject, a non-decreasingly risk averse decision maker asks for a higher selling price as he gets less risk averse. Conversely, when the initial decision is to accept, non-increasingly risk averse decision makers ask a higher selling price as they get more risk averse if information is collected on bounded lotteries. We also show that the assumption of the lower bound for lotteries can be relaxed for the quadratic utility family.

Career concerns can mitigate moral hazard problems, but these diminish as the agent's retirement age approaches. Addressing this problem, this note draws attention to the role of the interaction between contractible and non-contractible signals.

This paper considers a repeated Prisoners' Dilemma game to explore how an information mechanism that labels defectors can help sustain cooperation in societies that include short-run players. We provide sufficient conditions under which there exists equilibria that sustain cooperation for different information technologies that identify defectors. We also analyze imperfect labeling mechanisms.

Tanulmányunkban egy laboratóriumi kísérlet keretében azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a kognitív képességek és a stratégiai bizonytalanság hogyan hat a betétesi döntésekre. Olyan egyedi döntéseket nézünk meg, ahol a betétesnek domináns stratégiája van, azaz függetlenül attól, hogy a többi betétes hogyan döntött, neki a legjobb döntés bennhagyni a pénzét a bankban. Azonban a stratégiai bizonytalanság - azaz az, hogy a megfigyelhető korábbi döntések alapján nem derül ki egyértelműen, hogy a többi betétes hogyan döntött - megnehezíti a domináns stratégia felismerését. Azt találjuk, hogy egy kognitív képesség mérésére gyakran használt mutatónak van magyarázó ereje a betétesi döntéseket illetően, ha fennáll a stratégiai bizonytalanság, azonban ha nem áll fenn, a mutató elveszíti prediktív erejét.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C91, D8, G21., The author studies in a laboratory experiment whether cognitive abilities and strategic uncertainty affect depositors decisions. The paper considers choices in which the depositor has a dominant strategy, i. e. where it is possible independently of the other depositors decisions to withdraw money from the bank. However, strategic uncertainty ( a situation where it is not unambiguous how the other depositors decided, based on observed previous choices) renders it harder to discern the dominant strategy. The results show that cognitive abilities help to explain depositors decisions if there is strategic uncertainty, but they fail to predict those decisions where there is not.

Ebben a tanulmányban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a féloldalas aszimmetrikus információjú dinamikus alkumodelleknek van-e empirikus relevanciájuk váltságdíj-tárgyalási helyzetekben. Vizsgálatunkhoz egy történelmi adatbázist használunk, amely több mint tízezer, berber fogságban lévő - spanyol delegációk által kiváltott - fogoly adatait tartalmazza. Olyan többkörös tárgyalásokat figyelünk meg, amelyek az alulinformált fél (az eladó) szemszögéből ex ante hasonlók voltak, viszont bizonyos információkat csak a vevő tudott. Először egy redukált formájú elemzés során teszteljük a dinamikus alkumodellek főbb kvalitatív előrejelzéseit. Ezek után strukturálisan kiszámítjuk Cramton [1991] modelljét, hogy összehasonlítsuk egymással a két különböző berber bázison folyó tárgyalásokat. A fő következtetésünk az, hogy az alkudozásra használt történelmi intézmények a jelentős aszimmetrikus informáltság ellenére igen hatékonyak voltak.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C78, D8, N43, N47., The paper uses ransom prices and time taken to ransom for over 10,000 captives rescued from two Barbary strongholds, to investigate in ransoming settings the empirical relevance of dynamic bargaining models with one-sided asymmetric information. Considered were both multiple negotiations that were ex ante similar from the uninformed party s (seller s) point of view, and information that only the buyer knew. Reduced-form analysis was used to test some common qualitative predictions of dynamic bargaining models. The authors also estimate structurally the model in Cramton (1991), to compare negotiations in different Barbary strongholds. The estimates suggest that the historical bargaining institutions were remarkably efficient, despite the presence of substantial asymmetric information.

I consider an agent who conducts epistemic self-analysis. That is, she analyzes her model of knowledge and determines whether she satisfies the three knowledge axioms (the Truth Axiom, the Positive Introspection Axiom, and the Negative Introspection Axiom). I show that the consequence of epistemic self-analysis is that the agent must know that she satisfies all three knowledge axioms. I rely on using the "knowing whether" operator.

Over the last few decades, the education system has gone through significant changes. Formal education, as the basis of a complete education, was rebuilt over the centuries in order to meet the demands of time. In today’s fast-growing world filled with constant changes, formal education appears to be insufficient and inappropriate for the needs of modern society. The amount of available knowledge is increasing, and the ways in which it is transmitted show some weaknesses. Today’s society seeks to remove these shortcomings by introducing lifelong learning through formal, non-formal, and informal education. Lifelong learning should enable access of knowledge and competency development to people of all ages. This allows the acquisition of knowledge to persons whose age exceeds that of formal education and where informal knowledge is not close at hand. Digital technology is having a stronger and stronger influence on all aspects of education through mobile devices that make the world of knowledge accesible in places and times that suit students. The adaptation of existing knowledge for easier distribution through digital technology, and the presentation of knowledge and its easier adoption is affected. We should avoid the pitfalls that technology offers, and always keep in mind, in the first place, the students and the way that knowledge is most likely to be accepted. Lifelong learning, with the help of digital technology, has the ability to give each individual the knowledge that they need if andragogy principles and the needs of students have an advantage over the technology.

According to World Public Opinion poll, no country leader enjoyed worldwide trust in 2008. Only the leaders of China, Iran, and Russia received consistently higher trust ratings domestically than abroad. Not incidentally, these countries also score low in political and press freedoms. We build a parsimonious regression model that seeks to explain differences in trust ratings using country and leader characteristics. We find that just nine variables can explain over 60% of the variation in leader trust ratings. One of the strongest associative determinants of leader trust is press freedom.

Individual risk preferences can serve as an effective control variable in order to describe human decisions and behavior. Due to limited participants' attention and time, using standard procedures may be difficult. This paper hence proposes a risk preference elicitation task, aiming to assess individual risk preferences in experiments conducted outside the lab. The test is evaluated against a well-established task by means of two online experiments comprising a total of 490 participants.

This study investigates how technological advances in self-insurance (or self-protection) affect the optimal level of self-insurance (or self-protection) and that of insurance, if insurance is also taken into account. Conditions are derived for determining the signs of changes in the optimal levels of decision variables due to improved technology. Two cross-derivatives are found to be the key factors. Classification of technological advances is suggested based on the two cross-derivatives. The results show that when analyzed pairwise, “neutral†technological advances, according to the classification, decrease the optimal level of self-insurance and that of insurance, but increase the optimal level of self-protection and that of insurance.

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we use a confidential firm level panel data set (Business Tendency Survey) from Turkey to form three uncertainty measures, namely total, idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. In particular, we construct expectation errors of firms by comparing their survey responses about expectations and realizations on their production volume. Our results reveal countercyclical relationships between our uncertainty measures and economic activity. We further show that a one standard deviation increase in aggregate uncertainty is followed by a 0 : 5 percent decline in year-on-year change of industrial production on impact. The prolonged effect reaches more than 4 : 7 percent in a year for any of these three measures. In addition to the macroeconomic implications of uncertainty, we exploit the panel dimension of our data set to investigate the effects of firm specific uncertainty on that firm's investment decisions. Ordered probit estimation results show that if a firm makes more expectation errors -faces more uncertainty- it is more likely to defer investment plans even after controlling the aggregate uncertainty.

How might central bank communication of its internal forecasts assist the conduct of monetary policy? The literature has shown that heterogeneous expectations may have destabilizing effects on aggregate dynamics. This paper analyzes through adaptive learning the policy implications of central bank influence of private forecasts stemming from more accurate central bank forecasts. In this case, the central bank must only respect the Taylor principle to ensure macroeconomic stability, in contrast to the situation where private agents are learning from less accurate central bank forecasts.

This paper discusses the factors of business change management in the context of transition from traditional to computerized business systems. The factors of change management are presented as a firm’s strategic characteristics in the context of the relationship between traditional and computerized business management. The purpose of the research is the systematization of strategic characteristics of business informatization, and ranking and positioning of strategic characteristics in the context of competitive relationship between traditional and computerized business management. The aim of the research is to select and systematize strategic elements of business informatization into a small number of features that can be grouped as common factors according to certain criteria. The interdependence of strategic characteristics was established based on a factor analysis. This method was applied to real data obtained through business informatization questionnaires. During our study on strategic characteristics of business informatization, we collected data from 41 large and medium-sized companies in Croatia in the period from 2011 to 2014. The study included 15 strategic characteristics of business systems that were considered in the context of the factors of change management. Factor analysis of the data was performed using SPSS 21.0, and systematized into fi ve steps: 1. The first step was the reduction of the number of attributes and determining the initial results to extract factors. 2. The second step was defining the factor matrix after rotation of the factors. 3. The third step was the interpretation of the extracted factors. 4. The fourth step included testing for significance of results by determining the values of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. 5. The final, fifth step was the post-optimal analysis. By arranging the factors into groups we have focused on key areas of activity. We have also discussed various approaches to strategic thinking in the context of business informatization when combined with different levels of competitiveness.

This paper examines a pre-firm environment where agents who are potentially to become employees of a firm exert influence over one another. I argue that the manner in which they do so and the level of information an entrepreneur has on the agents' influence affects what is the most and least desirable situation for the latter. In examining this issue I take a network-theoretic approach based on the DeGroot (1974) model of learning in a network. The most and least desirable networks for the entrepreneur under each scenario are examined; the results are simple and depend directly on the ability of the entrepreneur to exert informed control over the influential agents.

Complexity aversion describes the preference of decision makers for less complex options that cannot be explained by expected utility theory. While a number of research articles investigate the effects of complexity on choices, up to this point there exist only theoretical approaches aiming to explain the reasons behind complexity aversion. This paper presents two experimental studies that aim to fill this gap. The first study considers subjects' cognitive abilities as a potential driver of complexity aversion. Cognitive skills are measured in a cognitive reflection test and, in addition, are approximated by subjects' consistency of choices. In opposition to our hypothesis, subjects with higher cognitive skills display stronger complexity aversion compared to their peers. The second study deals with cultural background. The experiment was therefore conducted in Germany and in Japan. German subjects prefer less complex lotteries while Japanese are indifferent regarding choice complexity.

The notion of 'resilience' is rapidly emerging as a research topic in its own right, with the notion of 'social resilience' rapidly gaining importance. Yet, due to the relative novelty of the research field, discussions about processes of social resilience are not yet fully developed, especially with regard to how the inbuilt 'memory' of a local community helps shape resilience pathways (social memory). Interlinkages between social memory and community resilience are the focus of this study, with emphasis on analysis of the importance of rites, traditions and social learning processes for shaping community resilience/vulnerability.

Every national economy and its competitive advantage depend on the quality of their own human resources. Th e use of these resources and investment into their quality are the main factors of development. Th e project presented in this paper is important for further development of the Republic of Croatia and the Republic of Montenegro as knowledge societies through diff erent segments of national and international cooperation among scientists.

The government often provides relief against large risks, such as disasters. A simple, general rationale for this role of government is considered here that applies even when private contracting to share risks is not subject to market imperfections. Specifically, the optimal private sharing of risks will not result in complete coverage against them when they are sufficiently large. Hence, when such risks eventuate, the marginal utility to individuals of governmental relief may exceed the marginal value of public goods. Consequently, social welfare may be raised if the government reduces public goods expenditures and directs these freed resources toward individuals who have suffered losses.

forthcoming in Social Choice and Welfare; International audience; How can several individuals' probability assignments to some events be aggregated into a collective probability assignment? Classic results on this problem assume that the set of relevant events – the agenda – is a-algebra and is thus closed under disjunction (union) and conjunction (intersection). We drop this demanding assumption and explore probabilistic opinion pooling on general agendas. One might be interested in the probability of rain and that of an interest-rate increase, but not in the probability of rain or an interest-rate increase. We characterize linear pooling and neutral pooling for general agendas, with classic results as special cases for agendas that are algebras. As an illustrative application, we also consider probabilistic preference aggregation. Finally, we unify our results with existing results on binary judgment aggregation and Arrovian preference aggregation. We show that the same kinds of axioms (independence and consensus preservation) have radically different implications for different aggregation problems: linearity for probability aggregation and dictatorship for binary judgment or preference aggregation.

Policy commitment and credibility are important for inducing agents to make costly, irreversible investments. Policy uncertainty can delay investment and reduce the response to policy change. I provide theoretical and novel quantitative evidence for these effects by focusing on trade policy, a ubiquitous but often overlooked source of uncertainty, when a firm's cost of export market entry is sunk. While an explicit purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to secure long term market access, little theoretical and empirical work analyzes the value of WTO institutions for reducing uncertainty for prospective exporters. Within a dynamic model of heterogeneous firms, I show that trade policy uncertainty will delay the entry of exporters into new markets and make them less responsive to applied tariff reductions. Policy instruments that reduce or eliminate uncertainty such as binding trade policy commitments at the WTO can increase entry even when applied protection is unchanged. I test the model using a disaggregated and detailed dataset of product level Australian imports in 2004 and 2006. I use the variation in tariffs and binding commitments across countries, products and time, to construct model-consistent measures of uncertainty. The estimates indicate that lower WTO commitments increase entry. Reducing trade policy uncertainty is at least as effective quantitatively as unilateral applied tariff reductions for Australia. These results illuminate and quantify an important new channel for trade creation in the world trade system.

Resumen El trabajo presenta una alternativa para identificar idiomas en Twitter sin que sea necesario utilizar conjuntos de entrenamiento o información agregada. En dicha alternativa se utilizan técnicas basadas en los algoritmos de reconocimiento de trigramas y small words. Se valora la utilización de estos algoritmos por sí solos y en un modelo de composición. Asimismo, se analiza la incidencia del pre-procesamiento de los tweets en la precisión de la identificación de los idiomas. Finalmente, después de un proceso de experimentación, se determina la mejor alternativa de las estudiadas. English Abstract The paper presents an alternative to identify languages on Twitter without having to use training sets or aggregated information. Such alternative is based on trigram recognition algorithms and small words techniques. The use of these algorithms is evaluated both on their own and in a model of composition. Also, the incidence of pre-processing of tweets in the accuracy of identifying the language is discussed. Finally, after a process of experimentation, the best alternative, out of those studied, is determined. The data obtained were interpreted through analysis and discussion of statistical information. The results indicate that the axes of technological surveillance are applied in the selected universities, emphasizing the following elements of study: competitive surveillance, commercial surveillance, technological surveillance itself and surveillance of the environment.

In this paper we examine how model uncertainty due to the preference for robustness (RB) aects optimal taxation and the evolution of debt in the Barro tax-smoothing model (1979). We rst study how the government spending shocks are absorbed in the short run by varying taxes or through debt under RB. Furthermore, we show that introducing RB improves the model’s predictions by generating (i) the observed relative volatility of the changes in tax rates to government spending, (ii) the observed comovement between government decits and spending, and (iii) more consistent behavior of government budget decits in the US economy. Finally, we show that RB can also improve the model’s predictions in the presence of multiple shocks.

Resumen A finales del siglo XX despuntan nuevos paradigmas en las relaciones interorganizativas, tomado mayor auge las alianzas estratégicas y en especial las joint ventures y los acuerdos de cooperación. A través de estas formas de gestión, las partes implicadas (partners) tienen la posibilidad de acceder a los recursos y capacidades del socio y de esta forma, en ocasiones, acceder a su tecnología, Know how, imagen de marca y, por supuesto, formas de financiamiento del negocio menos arriesgadas. Sin embargo, en ocasiones se observan comportamientos disímiles en lo que se refiere a los resultadosfinales y por tanto incumplimiento de los objetivos pactados o insatisfacciones. Es por ello que el trabajo que se presenta aquí aborda esta temática sobre la base de un estudio de gestoresdel sector hotelero en la Isla de Cuba, sus percepciones y criterios al respecto. Abstract In the late 20th century new paradigms in inter-organizational relationships emerge in the shape of strategic alliances and joint ventures, and especially cooperative agreements. Through these forms of management, stakeholders (partners) have the ability to have access to the resources and capabilities of the partner and thus, sometimes, access their technology, their Know-how, brand image, and, of course, less risky forms of financing their business. However, sometimes, different behaviors with respect to the final results and, therefore, non-compliance with the agreed objectives or dissatisfaction are observed. This study deals with this issue, based on a study of hotel managers in Cuba, with special interest in their perceptions and judgments on this topic.&nbsp

Spanish abstract Para las empresas de desarrollo de software el capital intelectual constituye su activo más valioso, es por ello que la continua formación de sus recursos humanos, resulta imprescindible para lograr el éxito. El presente trabajo describe el modelo de capacitación en la línea de desarrollo de software implementado en la empresa DESOFT. Se enumeran las acciones de diagnóstico y de enseñanza realizadas, así como los resultados obtenidos. English abstract ANowadays, knowledge is an important asset for IT companies. Therefore, a continuing improvement of human resources is essential for success. This paper presents the training approach for developers involved on the new Desoft software project. Actions for making a diagnosis and carrying on training are described. Also, the results for the organization are showed.

Resumen En éste artículo se establece como el control previo, concurrente y posterior, puede lograr que los emprendimientos tengan éxito y contribuyan al desarrollo socioeconómico de los sectores, mismos que proporcionan fuentes de trabajo, e insertan directa e indirectamente a su población en actividades económicas. La metodología aplicada es netamente descriptiva, basada en el análisis de aspectos cualitativos y cuantitativos propios de la Parroquia de Quichinche, Cantón Otavalo, Provincia de Imbabura. Los resultados alcanzados demuestran como el control en sus diversas etapas actúa en los emprendimientos detectando riesgos inherentes, de detección y de control, permitiendo la aplicación de acciones inmediatas que mitiguen riesgos y alcance los objetivos propuestos ya que el financiamiento se logra gracias al apoyo a través de asignaciones del sector público. Por lo que se sugiere que los gobiernos de turno impulsen emprendimientos facilitando los procesos de créditos, siempre y cuando éstos estén direccionados al cambio de matriz productiva y al plan del buen vivir que son los principales lineamientos de los gobiernos. Abstract This article considers how previous, concurrent and subsequent control can achieve successful ventures. Entrepreneurship contributes at the same time to the socioeconomic development of sectors That provides jobs, and insert directly and indirectly to population into economic activities. The applied methodology is descriptive, based on the analysis of qualitative and quantitative aspects of Quichinche Municipality. Results demonstrate that the control works in the entrepreneurship detecting inherent risks and allowing the application of immediate actions that mitigate risks and achieve the proposed objectives, since the financing is getting through the public sector assignments. Therefore suggests that the municipality governments promote entrepreneurship, facilitating the credit processes when they are routed to the productive matrix change and 'The Good Living Plan' which are the main guidelines of the governments.

Resumen El cómputo de alto rendimiento es una necesidad para el desarrollo deinvestigaciones con grandes volúmenes de datos. La creciente demanda de este tipo deresultados ha impulsado a varios centros de investigación a poner en funcionamientorecursos de cómputo de alto rendimiento. En Cuba no existe una solución definitiva quepermita a todos los centros de investigación disponer de los recursos de cómputonecesarios para desarrollar sus proyectos. Este trabajo propone el empleo de un clúster decomputadoras de la Universidad de Griffith a través de una interfaz basada en el correoelectrónico. Esta solución permite disponer de recursos de cómputo de alto rendimientosin necesidad de una alta conectividad. Como caso de estudio se analizan los resultadosobtenidos en un proyecto de optimización global en grandes dimensiones desarrollado enla Universidad de La Habana. Para experimentos con un mes de duración (en unacomputadora estándar) los resultados muestran que al utilizar el recurso de altorendimiento es posible alcanzar un incremento en el rendimiento relativo superior al1300%. Abstract: Research with large volumes of data usually require access to High Performance Computing. The increasing demand for this kind of research has led many institutions to develop their own computer clusters. However, in Cuba there is no definitive solution for the High Performance Computing requirements of institutions such as the University of Havana. The expenses of building a computer cluster disallows many institutions to have their own, while the low connectivity limits the use of international high performance computing services. This research presents an alternative solution based on the development of an email-based platform for accessing a computer cluster at Griffith University in Australia. This new communication interface has been successfully used on a Large Scale Optimization research project at the University of Havana. Computational results show that by using the remote cluster it is possible to improve upon the performance of a personal computer by up to 1300%.

Spanish abstract Se ha hecho común la utilización de los sistemas de gestión del aprendizaje (en inglés Learning Management System) o también llamados plataformas de teleformación. Este entorno como vía para proporcionar conocimientos no sólo es utilizado en Universidades, sino que su uso se ha extendido a otras instituciones como lo es el actual Centro de Formación Ramal para la Informática de DESOFT perteneciente al Ministerio de la Informática y las Comunicaciones (MINCOM). La construcción de conocimientos a lo largo de la vida y el intercambio de experiencias entre personas que realizan trabajos similares requieren de nuevas estrategias docentes. ¿Será suficiente con solo emplear las posibilidades de un sistema de gestión del aprendizaje?, ¿qué sucede cuando concluye la edición de un curso? Este trabajo tiene como objetivo exponer los criterios que al respecto tiene la autora del mismo, quien defiende la vinculación de un sistema de gestión del aprendizaje y una red social como solución a las interrogantes antes formuladas. English abstract It has become common the use of Learning Management System or so called e-learning platforms. This environment as a way to provide knowledge that is not only used in universities, but its use has been extended to other institutions such as the current Branch Training Center for Computer of DESOFT. The construction of knowledge throughout life and exchange of experiences among people doing similar jobs require new teaching strategies. Is it enough to just use the possibilities of a learning management system, and what happens when editing concludes a course? This work aims to present the criteria that has about the author himself, who defends linking a learning management system and a social network as a solution to the above raised questions.

Spanish abstract. El posicionamiento web se convierte en un factor esencial a tener presente cuando se desea promocionar un sitio web en Internet. Esta investigación trata sobre los factores SEO (Search Engine Optimization) que influyen en el posicionamiento de un sitio Web en los buscadores y por tanto en su visibilidad. Se identificaron estos factores y se relacionaron con los atributos de usabilidad y accesibilidad de un sitio Web. Se exponen los resultados de la aplicación de dos cuestionarios: uno para el perfil editor y otro para el perfil usuario, lo cual permitió relacionar las problemáticas que influyen en el bajo posicionamiento de algunos sitios web de salud de la red de Infomed.