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During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Grassland ecosystems cover up to 40% of the global land area and provide many ecosystem services directly supporting the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Monitoring long-term changes in grasslands is crucial for food security, biodiversity conservation, achieving Land Degradation Neutrality goals, and modeling the global carbon budget. Although long-term grassland monitoring using remote sensing is extensive, it is typically based on a single vegetation index and does not account for temporal and spatial autocorrelation, which means that some trends are falsely identified while others are missed. Our goal was to analyze trends in grasslands in Eurasia, the largest continuous grassland ecosystems on Earth. To do so, we calculated Cumulative Endmember Fractions (annual sums of monthly ground cover fractions) derived from MODIS 2002-2020 time series, and applied a new statistical approach PARTS that explicitly accounts for temporal and spatial autocorrelation in trends. We examined trends in green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and soil ground cover fractions considering their independent change trajectories and relations among fractions over time. We derived temporally uncorrelated pixel-based trend maps and statistically tested whether observed trends could be explained by elevation, land cover, SPEI3, climate, country, and their combinations, all while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We found no statistical evidence for a decrease in vegetation cover in grasslands in Eurasia. Instead, there was a significant map-level increase in non-photosynthetic vegetation across the region and local increases in green vegetation with a concomitant decrease in soil fraction. Independent environmental variables affected trends significantly, but effects varied by region. Overall, our analyses show in a statistically robust manner that Eurasian grasslands have changed considerably over the past two decades. Our approach enhances remote sensing-based monitoring of trends in grasslands so that underlying processes can be discerned., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Activity density (AD), the rate at which animals collectively move through their environment, emerges as the product of a taxon's local abundance and its velocity. We analyze drivers of seasonal AD using 47 localities from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) both to better understand variation in ecosystem rates like pollination and seed dispersal as well as the constraints of using AD to monitor invertebrate populations. AD was measured as volume from biweekly pitfall trap arrays (ml trap -1 14 days -1 ). Pooled samples from 2017 to 2018 revealed AD extrema at most temperatures but with a strongly positive overall slope. However, habitat types varied widely in AD's seasonal temperature sensitivity, from negative in wetlands to positive in mixed forest, grassland, and shrub habitats. The temperature of maximum AD varied threefold across the 47 localities; it tracked the threefold geographic variation in maximum growing season temperature with a consistent gap of ca. 3°C across habitats, a novel macroecological result. AD holds potential as an effective proxy for investigating ecosystem rates driven by activity. However, our results suggest that its use for monitoring insect abundance is complicated by the many ways that both abundance and velocity are constrained by a locality's temperature and plant physiognomy., (© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

Activity density (AD), the rate that an individual taxon or its biomass moves through the environment, is used both to monitor communities and quantify the potential for ecosystem work. The Abundance Velocity Hypothesis posited that AD increases with aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and is a unimodal function of temperature. Here we show that, at continental extents, increasing ANPP may have nonlinear effects on AD: increasing abundance, but decreasing velocity as accumulating vegetation interferes with movement. We use 5 yr of data from the NEON invertebrate pitfall trap arrays including 43 locations and four habitat types for a total of 77 habitat-site combinations to evaluate continental drivers of invertebrate AD. ANPP and temperature accounted for one-third to 92% of variation in AD. As predicted, AD was a unimodal function of temperature in forests and grasslands but increased linearly in open scrublands. ANPP yielded further nonlinear effects, generating unimodal AD curves in wetlands, and bimodal curves in forests. While all four habitats showed no AD trends over 5 yr of sampling, these nonlinearities suggest that trends in AD, often used to infer changes in insect abundance, will vary qualitatively across ecoregions., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

In an era of rapid climate change, and with it concern over insect declines, we used two theories to predict 20-yr changes in 34 North American ant communities. The ecosystems, from deserts to hardwood forests, were first surveyed in the 1990s. When resurveyed in 2016-2017, they averaged 1°C warmer with 200 g C·m -2 ·yr -1 higher plant productivity. Ant colony abundance changed from -49% to +61%. Consistent with Thermal Performance Theory, colony abundance increased with temperature increases < 1°C, then decreased as a site's mean monthly temperature change increased up to +2.4°C. Consistent with Species Energy Theory, (1) ant abundance tracked changes in a measure of energy availability (net aboveground productivity, g C·m -2 ·yr -1 ) and (2) increases in colony abundance drove increases in local plot- and transect-level species richness but not that of Chao 2, an estimate of the size of the species pool. Even after accounting for these drivers, local species richness was still higher ~20 yr after the original surveys, likely due to the increased activity of ant workers. These results suggest community changes are predictable using theory from geographical ecology, and that warming can first enhance but may ultimately decrease the abundance of this important insect taxon., (© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America.)

This paper describes a process of 'open' interdisciplinary scholarship. Researchers from across the University of Oklahoma blogged about a recent paper by ecologist Erle Ellis, and met in person to discuss posts. They then hosted Ellis for a seminar on questions that emerged, and for a public panel discussion., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has been a turning point in the World history that left a unique footprint on the Northern Eurasian ecosystems. Conducting large scale mapping of environmental change and separating between naturogenic and anthropogenic drivers is a difficult endeavor in such highly complex systems. In this research a piece-wise linear regression method was used for breakpoint detection in Rain-Use Efficiency (RUE) time series and a classification of ecosystem response types was produced. Supported by earth observation data, field data, and expert knowledge, this study provides empirical evidence regarding the occurrence of drastic changes in RUE (assessment of the timing, the direction and the significance of these changes) in Northern Eurasian ecosystems between 1982 and 2011. About 36% of the study area (3.4 million km(2) ) showed significant (P < 0.05) trends and/or turning points in RUE during the observation period. A large proportion of detected turning points in RUE occurred around the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and in the following years which were attributed to widespread agricultural land abandonment. Our study also showed that recurrent droughts deeply affected vegetation productivity throughout the observation period, with a general worsening of the drought conditions in recent years. Moreover, recent human-induced turning points in ecosystem functioning were detected and attributed to ongoing recultivation and change in irrigation practices in the Volgograd region, and to increased salinization and increased grazing intensity around Lake Balkhash. The ecosystem-state assessment method introduced here proved to be a valuable support that highlighted hotspots of potentially altered ecosystems and allowed for disentangling human from climatic disturbances., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)