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Magnetic instability is a key consideration for filament eruptions and subsequent CMEs. In this contribution we are considering different magnetic conditions for active and non-active regions, such as coronal hole regions and quiet sun, and also active regions of a simple magnetic configuration. The aim is to assess magnetic instability through potential and non-potential field modelling and 3D evaluation of the magnetic decay index. Some eruptive examples from solar cycle 24 using HMI/SDO data are presented, complemented with observations of AIA/SDO.

Geomagnetic storms, as part of the Sun-Earth relations, are continuously monitored with different indices and scales. These indices usually have some associated scale thresholds to quantify the severity or risk of geomagnetic disturbances. However, the most usual scale thresholds are arbitrarily chosen. In this work we aim to quantify the range of the thresholds through a new method. These new thresholds are based on statistical distribution fitting. We used different geomagnetic indices, as Dst, SYM-H, and Kp, since they are relevant for space weather purposes. The first two indices have been discriminated between their negative values and the whole dataset. We considered two periods: a short-term one, comprising data from 1997 to 2012; and long-term ones, which are from 1957–2012 for Dst and 1932–2012 for Kp. We look for the best fit for different statistical continuous distributions applied to these indices. The best fits and the data distribution functions yield to intersects that can be used to define thresholds. The best fit distribution functions are more coincidental between them when considering determined similar datasets, as non-central f-distribution for negative values, meaningful for geomagnetic disturbances; or non-central Student's-t, when the whole dataset is taken. The method yields different values for thresholds depending on the index. Thresholds for geomagnetic storms can be chosen by common values of SYM-H and Dst, as −75 nT for moderate storms; −150 nT for intense storms, and −330 nT for extreme storms. For the case of Kp, the value equal to 5 may mark the departure from quiet time to stormy time. The obtained values are close to those usually considered as thresholds for, typically, Dst and Kp; therefore the thresholds defined here may provide criteria to assess the vulnerability to geomagnetic activity on design or mitigation purposes.

Two GEO satellite anomalies have been related to electrostatic discharge during 1997 - 2010: Telstar 401 and Galaxy 15. This paper compares space weather conditions at the time of the anomaly for both events to check if there were similar conditions at the geospace that might increase risk of electrical discharge for surface and internal charging

[1] The recovery phase of the largest storms ever recorded has been studied. These events provide an extraordinary opportunity for two goals: (1) to validate the hyperbolic model by Aguado et al. (2010) for the recovery phase after disturbances as severe as the Carrington event or that related to the Hydro-Quebec blackout in March 1989, and (2) to check whether the linear relationship between the recovery time and the intensity of the storm still complies. Our results reveal the high accuracy of the hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase of the magnetosphere after an extreme storm. Moreover, the characteristic time that takes the magnetosphere to recover depends in an exponential way on the intensity of the storm, as indicated by the relationship between the two parameters involved in the hyperbolic decay. This exponential function can be approached by a linear function when the severity of the storm diminishes.

Midlatitude locations are unique regions exposed to both geomagnetic storm and substorm effects, which may be superposed on specific events imposing an extra handicap for the analysis and identification of the sources and triggers. We study space weather effects at the midlatitude location of the Iberian Peninsula for the St. Patrick's day events in 2013 and 2015. We have been able to identify and separate storm and substorm effects on ground magnetometer data from San Pablo‐Toledo observatory during storm time revealing important contributions of the Substorm Current Wedge on both events. The analysis of these substorm local signatures have shown to be related to the production of effective geomagnetically induced currents and ionospheric disturbances as measured from Global Navigation Satellite Systems data at MAD2 IGS permanent station and not directly related to the storm main phase. The whole Sun‐to‐Earth chain has been analyzed in order to identify the solar and interplanetary triggers. In both events a high‐speed stream (HSS) and a coronal mass ejections (CME) are involved, though for 2015 event, the HSS has merged with the CME, increasing the storm geoeffectiveness. The enhancement of substorm geoeffectiveness is justified by the effects of the inclined magnetic axes of the Sun and of the Earth during equinox period., This work has been supported bythe Spanish Ministerio de Economíay Competitividad (MINECO) underprojects AYA2013-47735-P andAYA2016-80881-P. The work at theUniversitat de Barcelona has beensupported by MINECO under theproject AYA2013-42614-P. The workby Antonio Guerrero has beensupported by University of Alcala under the program “Ayuda Posdoctoraldel Programa Propio de Vicerrectoradode Investigación y Transferencia.”Marta Rodriguez Bouza thanks MINECO for her contract in theproject GCL2014-62113-EXP.

Filaments may be mistaken for coronal holes when observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images; however, a closer and more careful look reveals that their photometric properties are different. The combination of EUV images with photospheric magnetograms shows some characteristic differences between filaments and coronal holes. We have performed analyses with 7 different SDO/AIA wavelengths (94, 131, 171, 211, 193, 304, 335~\AA) and SDO/HMI magnetograms obtained in September 2011 and March 2012 to study coronal holes and filaments from the photometric, magnetic, and also geometric point of view, since projection effects play an important role on the aforementioned traits., Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure

We present the results of an investigation from the Sun to the Earth of the sequence of events that caused major Dst decreases (Δ Dst ≤ – 100 nT during 1 h) that occurred during 1996–2005. These events are expected to be better related to geomagnetic induced current (GIC) events than those events where any geomagnetic index is far from its quiet time value. At least one full halo CME with a speed on the plane of sky above 900 km/s participates in every studied event. The seven events were triggered by interplanetary signatures, which arise as a consequence of interaction among different solar ejections. The interaction arises at different stages from the solar surface, between segments of a filament, to the interplanetary medium, appearing as ejecta or multiple-magnetic clouds (MultiMCs). In other cases, shock waves overtake or compress previous ICMEs and at other times the interaction also appears between magnetic clouds (MCs) and streams.

We analyze two magnetic clouds (MCs) observed in different points of the heliosphere. The main aim of the present study is to provide a link between the different aspects of this phenomenon, starting with information on the origins of the MCs at the Sun and following by the analysis of in-situ observations at 1AU and at Ulysses. The candidate source regions were identified in SOHO/EIT and SOHO/MDI observations. They were correlated with H-alfa images that were obtained from ground-based observatories. Hints on the internal magnetic field configuration of the associated coronal mass ejections are obtained from LASCO C2 images. In interplanetary space, magnetic and plasma moments of the distribution function of plasma species (ACE/Ulysses) were analyzed together with information on the plasma composition, and the results were compared between both spacecraft in order to understand how these structures interact and evolve in their cruise from the Sun to 5 AU. Additionally, estimates of global magnitudes of magnetic fluxes and helicity were obtained from magnetic field models applied to the data in interplanetary space. We have found that these magnetic characteristics were well kept from their solar source, up to 5 AU where Ulysses provided valuable information which, together with that obtained from ACE, can help to reinforce the correct matching of solar events and their interplanetary counterparts., Ministerio de Educación y Cultura

In this work we present a study of the triggers of intense geomagnetic storms since the launch of the WIND spacecraft, November 1995 until December 2001. Reviewing the signatures of solar wind flow, we looked for two different kinds of interplanetary events associated with intense geomagnetic storms: ejecta and corotating solar wind streams. We also looked for the solar origin related to both events. We provide a list of the solar–terrestrial events during the rising phase of this solar cycle. The paper includes statistical conclusions that shed light onto the paradigm of geomagnetic storms.

In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the ''Carrington-like'' event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs); and (c) the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected., Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha

Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa., Solar and Stellar Astrophysics, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

A recent study by Cid et al. (2012) showed that full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) coming from the limb can disturb the terrestrial environment. Although this result seems to rise some controversies with the well established theories, the fact is that the study encourages the scientific community to perform careful multidisciplinary analysis along the Sunto- Earth chain to fully understand which are the solar triggers of terrestrial disturbances. This paper aims to clarify some of the polemical issues arisen by that paper. © 2013 International Astronomical Union. Fil:Mandrini, C. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Dasso, S. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina.

We have studied magma solidification during volcanic events on the basis of conductive interchange in systems that undergo phase changes within a wide temperature range. Assuming this conductive hypothesis, we approach the heat equation via an enthalpic path, which takes account of the phase changes, where the thermodynamic parameters are a function of system temperature. This result is obtained by solving a nonlinear partial differential equation. Applying the finite group theory, we have obtained an analytic solution to the problem in different geometries.

[1] The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

Similar solutions are obtained by means of the enthalpic method for the finite one-dimensional Stefan problem in different geometries. Thermal conductivity and specific heat vary as a power of temperature. The solutions found are applied to a food freezing/thawing problem, magma solidification and thermal energy storage. In this way, the exact expression obtained for freezing time is more general than the empirical one developed by Plank.

[1] What one commonly considers for reproducing the recovery phase of magnetosphere, as seen by the Dst index, is exponential function. However, the magnetosphere recovers faster in the first hours than in the late recovery phase. The early steepness followed by the late smoothness in the magnetospheric response is a feature that leads to the proposal of a hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase instead of the exponential function. A superposed epoch analysis of recovery phases of intense storms from 1963 to 2003 was performed, categorizing the storms by their intensity into five subsets. The hyperbolic decay function reproduces experimental data better than what the exponential function does for any subset of storms, which indicates a nonlinear coupling between dDst/dt and Dst. Moreover, this kind of mathematical function, where the degree of reduction of the Dst index depends on time, allows for explaining different lifetimes of the physical mechanisms involved in the recovery phase and provides new insights for the modeling of the Dst index.

A perfectly conducting hot plasma in thermodynamic equilibrium is studied without taking account of the effects of collisions and viscosity. The medium is inhomogeneous, unbounded, axisymmetric and subject to a magnetic field B0 parallel to the axis of symmetry of the cylinder. Plasma equilibrium is investigated using a magnetohydrodynamic model, and the system of equations is closed with an equation of state corresponding to the adiabatic law for an ideal gas. Transformation groups are applied to generate asymptotic selfsimilar solutions for the density, pressure and magnetic field magnitudes on the equilibrium, and thus to obtain the spatial dependence of the invariant solutions since the temporal variable is eliminated. From consideration of the nature of these solutions, necessary conditions for equilibria in finite inhomogeneous media are obtained. Results are given for inhomogeneous media with finite conductivity. The degrees of inhomogeneity for pressure and density and their relations with dimensionless constants, arising from the group parameters, provide information on certain drastic changes in equilibrium temperature profiles.

The discipline of "Space Weather" is built on the scientific foundation of solar-terrestrial physics but with a strong orientation toward applied research. Models describing the solar-terrestrial environment are therefore at the heart of this discipline, for both physical understanding of the processes involved and establishing predictive capabilities of the consequences of these processes. Depending on the requirements, purely physical models, semi-empirical or empirical models are considered to be the most appropriate. This review focuses on the interaction of solar wind disturbances with geospace. We cover interplanetary space, the Earth's magnetosphere (with the exception of radiation belt physics), the ionosphere (with the exception of radio science), the neutral atmosphere and the ground (via electromagnetic induction fields). Space weather relevant state-of-the-art physical and semi-empirical models of the various regions are reviewed. They include models for interplanetary space, its quiet state and the evolution of recurrent and transient solar perturbations (corotating interaction regions, coronal mass ejections, their interplanetary remnants, and solar energetic particle fluxes). Models of coupled large-scale solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere processes (global magnetohydrodynamic descriptions) and of inner magnetosphere processes (ring current dynamics) are discussed. Achievements in modeling the coupling between magnetospheric processes and the neutral and ionized upper and middle atmospheres are described. Finally we mention efforts to compile comprehensive and flexible models from selections of existing modules applicable to particular regions and conditions in interplanetary space and geospace. ispartof: Space Science Reviews vol:147 issue:3 pages:233-270 status: published

After analyzing the source regions of these halo CMEs, it was found that the halo associated with the strongest geomagnetic disturbance was the one that initiated farther away from disk center (source region at W66); while the other two CMEs originated closer to the central meridian but had weaker geomagnetic responses. Therefore, these three events do not fit into the general statistical trends that relate the location of the solar source and the corresponding geoeffectivity. We investigate possible causes of such a behavior. Nonradial direction of eruption, passage of the Earth through a leg of an interplanetary flux rope, and strong compression at the eastern flank of a propagating interplanetary CME during its interaction with the ambient solar wind are found to be important factors that have a direct influence on the resulting north-south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component and thus on the CME geoeffectiveness. We also find indications that interaction of two CMEs could help in producing a long-lasting southward IMF component. Finally, we are able to explain successfully the geomagnetic response using plasma and magnetic field in situ measurements at the L1 point. We discuss the implications of our results for operational space weather forecasting and stress the difficulties of making accurate predictions with the current knowledge and tools at hand.

On 15 May 2005, a huge interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) was observed near Earth. It triggered one of the most intense geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 23 (Dst peak = -263 nT). This structure has been associated with the two-ribbon flare, filament eruption, and coronal mass ejection originating in active region 10759 (NOAA number). We analyze here the sequence of events, from solar wind measurements (at 1 AU) and back to the Sun, to understand the origin and evolution of this geoeffective ICME. From a detailed observational study of in situ magnetic field observations and plasma parameters in the interplanetary (IP) medium and the use of appropriate models we propose an alternative interpretation of the IP observations, different to those discussed in previous studies. In our view, the IP structure is formed by two extremely close consecutive magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserve their identity during their propagation through the interplanetary medium. Consequently, we identify two solar events in H{\alpha} and EUV which occurred in the source region of the MCs. The timing between solar and IP events, as well as the orientation of the MC axes and their associated solar arcades are in good agreement. Additionally, interplanetary radio type II observations allow the tracking of the multiple structures through inner heliosphere and pin down the interaction region to be located midway between the Sun and the Earth. The chain of observations from the photosphere to interplanetary space is in agreement with this scenario. Our analysis allows the detection of the solar sources of the transients and explains the extremely fast changes of the solar wind due to the transport of two attached (though nonmerging) MCs which affect the magnetosphere.

Trying to get light into the paradigm of forecasting geomagnetic activity, we have looked for a relationship between geoeffectiveness and the orientation and helicity of magnetic clouds. During the years 1995–2000, we have selected all the geomagnetic storms with Dst index less than −70 nT. Then, we have inspected WIND data looking for a possible magnetic cloud related to every storm event. When a magnetic cloud is encountered, we have fitted to experimental data a model that we have developed for the magnetic cloud topology in order to obtain the attitude of the magnetic cloud and its helicity. On the basis of the results obtained, a close relationship is observed between the orientation of the magnetic cloud and its helicity, and the geomagnetic activity.

Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha

Explicit self-similar solutions are systematically obtained for a nonlinear diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that depends exponentially on the transported magnitude (D(u)=K1ealpha u), for some boundary conditions associated with the parameter lambda of the transformation group. Group elements under which the Hamiltonian of this physical system remains invariant enable one to find new magnitudes which remain invariant under transformation for each specific lambda value in turn. This allows physical properties of the system to be established. The sign of alpha limits the possibility of obtaining self-similar solutions in any kind of diffusion process for those group elements belonging to the open interval (0, 1/2); if alpha >0 then only self-similar solutions for absorption processes will be found and if alpha