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BackgroundSyndromic surveillance for respiratory infections such as COVID-19 is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit as it allows decision makers to detect and prepare for new waves of the disease in advance. However, it is labor-intensive, costly, and increases exposure to survey personnel. This study assesses the feasibility of conducting a mobile phone–based respiratory syndromic surveillance program in a middle-income country during a public health emergency, providing data to support the inclusion of this method in the standard infection control protocols at the population level. ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the feasibility of a national active syndromic surveillance system for COVID-19 disease in Colombia. MethodsIn total, 2 pilots of syndromic mobile phone surveys (MPSs) were deployed using interactive voice response technology in Colombia (367 complete surveys in March 2022 and 451 complete surveys in April and May 2022). Respondents aged 18 years and older were sampled using random digit dialing, and after obtaining consent, they were sent a 10-minute survey with modules on sociodemographic status, respiratory symptoms, past exposure to COVID-19 infection and vaccination status, preferences about COVID-19 vaccination, and information source for COVID-19. Pilot 1 used a nationally representative sample while pilot 2 used quota sampling to yield representative results at the regional level. In this work, we assessed the performance characteristics of the survey pilots and compared the demographic information collected with a nationally representative household survey. ResultsFor both pilots, contact rates were between 1% and 2%, while participation rates were above 80%. The results revealed that younger, female, and higher educated participants were more likely to participate in the syndromic survey. Survey rates as well as demographics, COVID-19 vaccination status, and prevalence of respiratory symptoms are reported for both pilots. We found that respondents of the MPSs are more likely to be younger and female. ConclusionsIn a COVID-19 pandemic setting, using an interactive voice response MPS to conduct syndromic surveillance may be a transformational, low-risk, and feasible method to detect outbreaks. This evaluation expects to provide a path forward to the inclusion of MPSs as a traditional surveillance method.

Abstract Background Integrated vaccine delivery – the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services – is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes. Methods We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership. Results We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage. Conclusions Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

We investigated the feasibility of an interactive voice response (IVR) survey in Tanzania and compared its prevalence estimates for tobacco use to the estimates of the 'Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) 2018′. IVR participants were enrolled by random digit dialing. Quota sampling was employed to achieve the required sample sizes of age-sex strata: sex (male/female) and age (18–29-, 30–44-, 45–59-, and ≥60-year-olds). GATS was a nationally representative survey and used a multistage stratified cluster sampling design. The IVR sample’s weights were generated using the inverse proportional weighting (IPW) method with a logit model and the standard age-sex distribution of Tanzania. The IVR and GATS had 2362 and 4555 participants, respectively. Compared to GATS, the unweighted IVR sample had a higher proportion of males (58.7 % vs. 43.2 %), educated people (secondary/above education: 43.3 % vs. 21.1 %), and urban residents (56.5 % vs. 40 %). The weighted prevalence (95 % confidence interval (CI)) of current smoking was 4.99 % (4.11–6.04), 5.22 % (4.36–6.24), and 7.36 % (6.51–8.31) among IVR (IPW), IVR (age-sex standard), and GATS samples, respectively; the weighted prevalence (95 % CI) of smokeless tobacco use was similar: 3.54 % (2.73–4.57), 3.58 % (2.80–4.56), and 2.43 % (1.98–2.98), respectively. Most differences in point estimates for tobacco indicators were small (

Background COVID-19 vaccination is a global priority. Latin American countries have some of the highest COVID-19 death rates worldwide with vaccination hampered by a variety of reasons, including mis- and disinformation, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine supply constraints. Addressing vaccine hesitancy through effective messages has been found to help increase vaccine uptake. Participatory processes could be used to co-design health messages for this purpose. Objective This article describes the methodology used to co-design evidence-based audio messages to be deployed in a cohort of individuals through an interactive voice response (IVR) mobile phone survey intervention, aimed towards increasing vaccination uptake in an adult population in Colombia. Methods Participants of the COVID-19 vaccination message co-design process included a sample of the general population of the country, representatives of the funder organisation, and research team members. The co-design process consisted of four phases: (1) formative quantitative and qualitative research, (2) message drafting based on the results of the formative research, (3) message content evaluation, and (4) evaluation of the voices to deliver the audio messages; and was informed by reflexive meetings. Results Three categories of evidence-based audio messages were co-designed, each corresponding to an arm of the mHealth intervention: (1) factual messages, (2) narrative messages, and (3) mixed messages. An additional fourth arm with no message was proposed for control. The iterative co-design process ended with a total of 14 audio messages recorded to be deployed via the intervention. Conclusions Co-developing health messages in response to health emergencies is possible. Adopting more context-relevant, participatory, people-centred, and reflexive multidisciplinary approaches could help develop solutions that are more responsive to the needs of populations and public health priorities. Investing resources in message co-design is deemed to have a greater potential for influencing behaviours and improving health outcomes.

Objectives As mobile phone ownership becomes more widespread in low-income and middle-income countries, mobile phone surveys (MPSs) present an opportunity to collect data on health more cost-effectively. However, selectivity and coverage biases in MPS are concerns, and there is limited information about the population-level representativeness of these surveys compared with household surveys. This study aims at comparing the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents of an MPS on non-communicable disease risk factors to a household survey in Colombia.Design Cross-sectional study. We used a random digit dialling method to select the samples for calling mobile phone numbers. The survey was conducted using two modalities: computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATIs) and interactive voice response (IVR). The participants were assigned randomly to one of the survey modalities based on a targeted sampling quota stratified by age and sex. The Quality-of-Life Survey (ECV), a nationally representative survey conducted in the same year of the MPS, was used as a reference to compare the sample distributions by sociodemographic characteristics of the MPS data. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the population representativeness between the ECV and the MPSs.Setting The study was conducted in Colombia in 2021.Participants Population at least 18 years old with a mobile phone.Results We completed 1926 and 2983 interviews for CATI and IVR, respectively. We found that the MPS data have a similar (within 10% points) age–sex data distribution compared with the ECV dataset for some subpopulations, mainly for young populations, people with none/primary and secondary education levels, and people who live in urban and rural areas.Conclusions This study shows that MPS could collect similar data to household surveys in terms of age, sex, high school education level and geographical area for some population categories. Strategies are needed to improve representativeness of the under-represented groups.

IntroductionAlthough interactive voice response (IVR) is a promising mobile phone survey (MPS) method for public health data collection in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), participation rates for this method remain lower than traditional methods. This study tested whether using different introductory messages increases the participation rates of IVR surveys in two LMICs, Bangladesh and Uganda.MethodsWe conducted two randomized, controlled micro-trials using fully-automated random digit dialing to test the impact of (1) the gender of the speaker recording the survey (i.e., survey voice); and (2) the valence of the invitation to participate in the survey (i.e., survey introduction) on response and cooperation rates. Participants indicated their consent by using the keypad of cellphones. Four study arms were compared: (1) male and informational (MI); (2) female and information (FI); (3) male and motivational (MM); and (4) female and motivational (FM).ResultsBangladesh and Uganda had 1705 and 1732 complete surveys, respectively. In both countries, a majority of the respondents were males, young adults (i.e., 18-29-year-olds), urban residents, and had O-level/above education level. In Bangladesh, the contact rate was higher in FI (48.9%), MM (50.0%), and FM (55.2%) groups than in MI (43.0%); the response rate was higher in FI (32.3%) and FM (33.1%) but not in MM (27.2%) and MI (27.1%). Some differences in cooperation and refusal rates were also observed. In Uganda, MM (65.4%) and FM (67.9%) had higher contact rates than MI (60.8%). The response rate was only higher in MI (52.5%) compared to MI (45.9%). Refusal and cooperation rates were similar. In Bangladesh, after pooling by introductions, female arms had higher contact (52.1% vs 46.5%), response (32.7% vs 27.1%), and cooperation (47.8% vs 40.4%) rates than male arms. Pooling by gender showed higher contact (52.3% vs 45.6%) and refusal (22.5% vs 16.3%) rates but lower cooperation rate (40.0% vs 48.2%) in motivational arms than informational arms. In Uganda, pooling intros did not show any difference in survey rates by gender; however, pooling by intros showed higher contact (66.5% vs 61.5%) and response (50.0% vs 45.2%) rates in motivational arms than informational arms.ConclusionOverall, we found higher survey rates among female voice and motivational introduction arms compared to male voice and informational introduction arm in Bangladesh. However, Uganda had higher rates for motivational intro arms only compared to informational arms. Gender and valence must be considered for successful IVR surveys.Trial registrationName of the registry: ClinicalTrials.gov. Trial registration number: NCT03772431. Date of registration: 12/11/2018, Retrospectively Registered. URL of trial registry record: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03772431?term=03772431&cond=Non-Communicable+Disease&draw=2&rank=1. Protocol Availability: https://www.researchprotocols.org/2017/5/e81.

Abstract Background Healthcare workers are at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection during care encounters compared to the general population. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) have been shown to protect COVID-19 among healthcare workers, however, Kenya has faced PPE shortages that can adequately protect all healthcare workers. We, therefore, examined the health and economic consequences of investing in PPE for healthcare workers in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model following the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) guidelines. We examined two outcomes: 1) the incremental cost per healthcare worker death averted, and 2) the incremental cost per healthcare worker COVID-19 case averted. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results Kenya would need to invest $3.12 million (95% CI: 2.65–3.59) to adequately protect healthcare workers against COVID-19. This investment would avert 416 (IQR: 330–517) and 30,041 (IQR: 7243 – 102,480) healthcare worker deaths and COVID-19 cases respectively. Additionally, such an investment would result in a healthcare system ROI of $170.64 million (IQR: 138–209) – equivalent to an 11.04 times return. Conclusion Despite other nationwide COVID-19 prevention measures such as social distancing, over 70% of healthcare workers will still be infected if the availability of PPE remains scarce. As part of the COVID-19 response strategy, the government should consider adequate investment in PPE for all healthcare workers in the country as it provides a large return on investment and it is value for money.

Abstract Background This is the first study to examine the costs of conducting a mobile phone survey (MPS) through interactive voice response (IVR) to collect information on risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (NCD) in three low- and middle-income countries (LMIC); Bangladesh, Colombia, and Uganda. Methods This is a micro-costing study conducted from the perspective of the payer/funder with a 1-year horizon. The study evaluates the fixed costs and variable costs of implementing one nationally representative MPS for NCD risk factors of the adult population. In this costing study, we estimated the sample size of calls required to achieve a population-representative survey and associated incentives. Cost inputs were obtained from direct economic costs incurred by a central study team, from country-specific collaborators, and from platform developers who participated in the deployment of these MPS during 2017. Costs were reported in US dollars (USD). A sensitivity analysis was conducted assessing different scenarios of pricing and incentive strategies. Also, costs were calculated for a survey deployed targeting only adults younger than 45 years. Results We estimated the fixed costs ranging between $47,000 USD and $74,000 USD. Variable costs were found to be between $32,000 USD and $129,000 USD per nationally representative survey. The main cost driver was the number of calls required to meet the sample size, and its variability largely depends on the extent of mobile phone coverage and access in the country. Therefore, a larger number of calls were estimated to survey specific harder-to-reach sub-populations. Conclusion Mobile phone surveys have the potential to be a relatively less expensive and timely method of collecting survey information than face-to-face surveys, allowing decision-makers to deploy survey-based monitoring or evaluation programs more frequently than it would be possible having only face-to-face contact. The main driver of variable costs is survey time, and most of the variability across countries is attributable to the sampling differences associated to reaching out to population subgroups with low mobile phone ownership or access.

BackgroundThe C-Score, which is an individual health score, is based on a predictive model validated in the UK and US populations. It was designed to serve as an individualized point-in-time health assessment tool that could be integrated into clinical counseling or consumer-facing digital health tools to encourage lifestyle modifications that reduce the risk of premature death. ObjectiveOur study aimed to conduct an external validation of the C-Score in the US population and expand the original score to improve its predictive capabilities in the US population. The C-Score is intended for mobile health apps on wearable devices. MethodsWe conducted a literature review to identify relevant variables that were missing in the original C-Score. Subsequently, we used data from the 2005 to 2014 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; N=21,015) to test the capacity of the model to predict all-cause mortality. We used NHANES III data from 1988 to 1994 (N=1440) to conduct an external validation of the test. Only participants with complete data were included in this study. Discrimination and calibration tests were conducted to assess the operational characteristics of the adapted C-Score from receiver operating curves and a design-based goodness-of-fit test. ResultsHigher C-Scores were associated with reduced odds of all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.96, P0.72. A sensitivity analysis using NHANES III data (1988-1994) was performed, yielding similar results. The inclusion of sociodemographic and clinical variables in the basic C-Score increased the AUCs from 0.72 (95% CI 0.71-0.73) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.85-0.88). ConclusionsOur study shows that this digital biomarker, the C-Score, has good capabilities to predict all-cause mortality in the general US population. An expanded health score can predict 87% of the mortality in the US population. This model can be used as an instrument to assess individual mortality risk and as a counseling tool to motivate behavior changes and lifestyle modifications.

Introducción. La hipertensión arterial sistémica es un problema de salud pública en el mundo. En Colombia, su prevalencia es del 25 % y la mortalidad es alta. Los factores psicosociales que afectan el cumplimiento del tratamiento farmacológico no han sido estudiados suficientemente. En otros países, se ha estudiado el papel del estrés crónico en la relación entre la posición socioeconómica y el cumplimiento del tratamiento farmacológico antihipertensivo. Objetivo. Examinar el papel del estrés crónico como mediador de la relación entre la posición socioeconómica y el cumplimiento del tratamiento farmacológico, en pacientes hipertensos de 45 a 70 años en el 2015 y el 2016. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio transversal de una población de pacientes hipertensos. Los datos provienen de la muestra seleccionada para el programa “De todo corazón” en Bogotá, Medellín y Quibdó. El análisis estadístico de los datos se hizo mediante análisis factorial y regresiones multivariadas. Resultados. Los resultados confirmaron una asociación positiva entre la posición socioeconómica y el grado de cumplimiento del tratamiento farmacológico, y una relación negativa entre la primera y el estrés crónico. Además, se evidenció que el estrés tiene una asociación negativa con el grado de cumplimiento. Conclusiones. Los resultados sugieren que el estrés no es un mediador entre la posición socioeconómica y el cumplimiento del tratamiento farmacológico antihipertensivo en Colombia. Se requieren estudios adicionales para confirmar estas relaciones con una muestra más amplia.

Summary: Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) programs have been recommended as a risk mitigation strategy. However, many governments have hesitated to implement them due to their costs. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing a national TTI program to reduce the number of severe and fatal cases of COVID-19 in Colombia. Methods: We developed a Markov simulation model of COVID-19 infection combined with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered structure. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive TTI strategy compared to no intervention over a one-year horizon, from both the health system and the societal perspective. Hospitalization and mortality rates were retrieved from Colombian surveillance data. We included program costs of TTI intervention, health services utilization, PCR diagnosis test, productivity loss, and government social program costs. We used the number of deaths and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Findings: Compared with no intervention, the TTI strategy reduces COVID-19 mortality by 67%. In addition, the program saves an average of $1,045 and $850 per case when observed from the social and the health system perspective, respectively. These savings are equivalent to two times the current health expenditures in Colombia per year. Interpretation: The TTI program is a highly cost-effective public health intervention to reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Colombia. TTI programs depend on their successful and speedy implementation. Funding: This study was supported by the Colombian Ministry of Health through award number PUJ-04519-20 received by EPQ AVO and SDS declined to receive any funding support for this study. The contents are the responsibility of all the individual authors.

IntroductionAutomated mobile phone surveys (MPS) can be used to collect public health data of various types to inform health policy and programs globally. One challenge in administering MPS is identification of an appropriate and effective participant consent process. This study investigated the impact of different survey consent approaches on participant disposition (response characteristics and understanding of the purpose of the survey) within the context of an MPS that measured noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors across Colombia and Uganda.MethodsParticipants were randomized to one of five consent approaches, with consent modules varying by the consent disclosure and mode of authorization. The control arm consisted of a standard consent disclosure and a combined opt-in/opt-out mode of authorization. The other four arms consist of a modified consent disclosure and one of four different forms of authorization (i.e., opt-in, opt-out, combined opt-in/opt-out, or implied). Data related to respondent disposition and respondent understanding of the survey purpose were analyzed.ResultsAmong 1889 completed surveys in Colombia, differences in contact, response, refusal, and cooperation rates by study arms were found. About 68% of respondents correctly identified the survey purpose, with no significant difference by study arm. Participants reporting higher levels of education and urban residency were more likely to identify the purpose correctly. Participants were also more likely to accurately identify the survey purpose after completing several survey modules, compared to immediately following the consent disclosure (78.8% vs 54.2% correct, pConclusionThis study contributes to the limited available evidence regarding consent procedures for automated MPS. Future studies should develop and trial additional interventions to enhance consent for automated public health surveys, and measure other dimensions of participant engagement and understanding.

Objective To assess the effect of a permanent gun-carrying restriction on gun-related mortality in Colombia between 2008 and 2014, and determine differences in the effect of the restriction by place of death and sex. Methods In 2012, Bogota and Medellin introduced a permanent gun-carrying restriction. We compared gun-related mortality rates in these cities (intervention cities) with the rates in all other Colombian cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants (control cities). We used data from the Colombian National Department of Statistics to calculate monthly gun-related mortality rates between 2008 and 2014 for intervention and control cities. We used a differences-in-differences method with fixed effects to assess differences in gun-related mortality in intervention and control cities before and after the introduction of the gun-carrying restriction. We stratified effects by place of death (public area or residence) and sex. We made robustness checks to test the assumptions of the models. Findings Gun-related deaths in the control and intervention cities decreased between 2008 and 2014; however, the decrease was greater in the intervention cities (from 20.29 to 14.93 per 100 000 population; 26.4%) than in the control cities (from 37.88 to 34.56 per 100 000 population; 8.8%). The restriction led to a 22.3% reduction in the monthly gun-related mortality rate in Bogota and Medellin. The reduction was greater in public areas and for males. Robustness checks supported the assumptions of the models. Conclusion The permanent restriction on carrying guns reduced gun-related deaths. This policy could be used to reduce gun-related injuries in urban centres of other countries with large numbers of gun-related deaths. Objectif Evaluer I'impact d'une restriction permanente du port d'armes sur le taux de mortalite lie aux armes a feu en Colombie entre 2008 et 2014, et determiner les differences d'impact de cette restriction en fonction du lieu du deces et du sexe. Methodes En 2012, Bogota et Medellin ont instaure une restriction permanente du port d'armes. Nous avons compare les taux de mortalite lies aux armes a feu dans ces villes (villes d'intervention) avec les taux observes dans l'ensemble des autres villes colombiennes de plus de 500 000 habitants (villes de controle). Les donnees fournies par le Departement administratif national de la statistique en Colombie nous ont permis de calculer les taux de mortalite lies aux armes a feu entre 2008 et 2014 dans les villes d'intervention et de controle. Nous avons utilise la methode des doubles differences a effets fixes pour mesurer les disparites entre la mortalite liee aux armes a feu dans les villes d'intervention et de controle, avant et apres l'instauration de la restriction du port d'armes. Nous avons ensuite segmente les resultats en fonction du lieu du deces (espace public ou domicile) et du sexe. Nous avons egalement procede a des tests de robustesse pour evaluer les hypotheses des modeles. Resultats Les deces causes par des armes a feu dans les villes de controle et d'intervention ont diminue entre 2008 et 2014. Cependant, la diminution etait plus importante dans les villes d'intervention (de 20,29 a 14,93 par 100 000 habitants ; 26,4 %) que dans les villes de controle (de 37,88 a 34,56 par 100 000 habitants ; 8,8 %). La restriction a entraine une baisse de 22,3 % de la mortalite mensuelle liee aux armes a feu, tant a Bogota qu'a Medellin. Cette baisse s'est averee plus importante dans les espaces publics et pour les individus de sexe masculin. Les tests de robustesse ont confirme les hypotheses des modeles. Conclusion La restriction permanente du port d'armes a un impact positif sur la mortalite liee aux armes a feu. Cette politique pourrait etre employee par d'autres pays ou le nombre de deces attribuables aux armes a feu est eleve, afin de reduire le nombre de blessures par balles dans les centres urbains. Objetivo Evaluar el efecto de una restriccion permanente al porte de armas en la mortalidad relacionada con las armas en Colombia entre 2008 y 2014, y determinar las diferencias en el efecto de la restriccion por lugar de muerte y sexo. Metodos En 2012, Bogota y Medellin establecieron una restriccion permanente al porte de armas. Se compararon las tasas de mortalidad por arma de fuego en estas ciudades (ciudades de intervencion) con las tasas en todas las demas ciudades colombianas con mas de 500.000 habitantes (ciudades de control). Se utilizaron los datos del Departamento Nacional de Estadistica de Colombia para calcular las tasas mensuales de mortalidad por armas de fuego entre 2008 y 2014 para las ciudades de intervencion y control. Se utilizo un metodo de diferencia en diferencias con efectos fijos para evaluar las diferencias en la mortalidad relacionada con armas de fuego en las ciudades de intervencion y control antes y despues del establecimiento de la restriccion al porte de armas. Se estratificaron los efectos por lugar de muerte (area publica o residencia) y sexo. Se realizaron controles de solidez para probar los supuestos de los modelos. Resultado Las muertes relacionadas con armas de fuego en las ciudades de control e intervencion disminuyeron entre 2008 y 2014; sin embargo, la disminucion fue mayor en las ciudades de intervencion (de 20, 29 a 14,93 por cada 100.000 habitantes; 26,4 %) que en las ciudades de control (de 37,88 a 34,56 por cada 100.000 habitantes; 8,8 %). La restriccion condujo a una reduccion del 22,3 % en la tasa mensual de mortalidad relacionada con armas de fuego en Bogota y Medellin. La reduccion fue mayor en las areas publicas y en los hombres. Los controles de solidez apoyaron los supuestos de los modelos. Conclusion La restriccion permanente al porte de armas redujo las muertes relacionadas con las armas. Esta politica podria ser utilizada para reducir las lesiones relacionadas con armas de fuego en los centros urbanos de otros paises con un gran numero de muertes relacionadas con este tipo de armas., Introduction Estimations show that 251 000 people died in 2016 from gun-related injuries worldwide and nine out of 10 violent deaths take place outside of conflict situations. (1, 2) About [...]

BackgroundContact tracing is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor-intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations using empirical data have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact tracing strategies to improve infection control.MethodsWe obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N = 54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). As suggested by WHO guidelines, we proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days, and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on daily COVID-19 mortality. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for the prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed.ResultsWe found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables.ConclusionContact tracing is instrumental in containing infectious diseases. Its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will substantially impact reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC.

Background Data collection on noncommunicable disease (NCD) behavioral risk factors has traditionally been carried out through face-to-face surveys. However, its high costs and logistical difficulties can lead to lack of timely statistics for planning, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Mobile phone surveys (MPS) have the potential to fill these gaps. Objective This study explores perceptions, feasibility and strategies to increase the acceptability and response rate of health surveys administered through MPS using interactive voice response in Colombia. Method A sequential multimodal exploratory design was used. We conducted key informant interviews (KII) with stakeholders from government and academia; focus group discussions (FGDs) and user-group tests (UGTs) with young adults and elderly people living in rural and urban settings (men and women). The KII and FGDs explored perceptions of using mobile phones for NCD surveys. In the UGTs, participants were administered an IVR survey, and they provided feedback on its usability and potential improvement. Results Between February and November 2017, we conducted 7 KII, 6 FGDs (n = 54) and 4 UGTs (n = 34). Most participants consider MPS is a novel way to explore risk factors in NCDs. They also recognize challenges for their implementation including security issues, technological literacy and telecommunications coverage, especially in rural areas. It was recommended to promote the survey using mass media before its deployment and stressing its objectives, responsible institution and data privacy safeguards. The preferences in the survey administration relate to factors such as skills in the use of mobile phones, age, availability of time and educational level. The participants recommend questionnaires shorter than 10 minutes. Conclusions The possibility of obtaining data through MPS at a population level represents an opportunity to improve the availability of risk-factor data. Steps towards increasing the acceptability and overcoming technological and methodological challenges need to be taken.

BackgroundIn this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsTo account for health consequences, we estimated mortality for HCWs and present a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model with Bayesian multivariate sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Data sources included inputs from the World Health Organization Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool and the Imperial College of London epidemiologic model.ResultsAn investment of $9.6 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention would save 2,299,543 lives across LMICs, costing $59 USD per HCW case averted and $4,309 USD per HCW life saved. The societal ROI would be $755.3 billion USD, the equivalent of a 7,932% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented.DiscussionIn scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale procurement and distribution of PPE for LMICs is an essential strategy to prevent widespread HCW morbidity and mortality. It is cost-effective and yields a large downstream return on investment.

Objectives To evaluate the prevalence of drink driving and speeding during 2015–2018 in Sao Paulo, Brazil.Design Cross-sectional observational study.Setting Roads representing the five main regions of the city of Sao Paulo in Brazil, one of the world’s largest urban areas.Participants Drivers (N=10 294) stopped at routine roadside breath testing checkpoints and those driving in selected roads for speeding measurement (N=414 664).Primary and secondary outcome measures Microwave radar guns were used to measure the speed of vehicles, while the prevalence of drivers under the influence of alcohol was observed in police checkpoints. Data were collected during three consecutive years (2016–2018) following a baseline study established in 2015 using a city-level representative sample of observational data representing all days of the week.Results Alcohol-related fatalities kept at a constantly high percentage, with 39% of road traffic deaths involving alcohol in 2016. Drivers testing above the legal breath alcohol concentration limit showed a decreasing trend, from 4.1% (95% CI 2.9% to 5.5%) at baseline to 0.6% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.2%) in the end of 2018 (p

Summary: Background: Between 1990 and 2015, the global injury mortality declined, but in countries where the poorest billion live, injuries are becoming an increasingly prevalent cause of death. The vulnerability of this population requires immediate attention from policy makers to implement effective interventions that lessen the burden of injuries in these countries. Our aim was two-fold; first, to review all the evidence on effective interventions for the five main types of unintentional injury; and second, to estimate the potential number of lives saved by effective injury interventions among the poorest billion. Methods: For our systematic review we used references in the Disability Control Priorities third edition, and searched PubMed and the Cochrane database for papers published until Sept 10, 2016, using a comprehensive search strategy to find interventions for the five major causes of unintentional injuries: road traffic crashes, falls, drowning, burns, and poisoning. Studies were included if they presented evidence with significant effects sizes for any outcome; no inclusions or exclusions made on the basis of where the study was carried out (ie, low-income, middle-income, or high-income country). Then we used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study and a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the potential annual attributable number of lives saved among the poorest billion by these evidence-based injury interventions. We estimated results for 84 countries where the poorest billion live. Findings: From the 513 papers identified, 47 were eligible for inclusion. We identified 11 interventions that had an effect on injury mortality. For road traffic deaths, the most successful interventions in preventing deaths are speed enforcement (>80 000 lives saved per year) and drink-driving enforcement (>60 000 lives saved per year). Interventions potentially most effective in preventing deaths from drowning are formal swimming lessons for children younger than 14 years (>25 000 lives saved per year) and the use of crèches to supervise younger children (younger than 5 years; >10 000 lives saved per year). We did not find sufficient evidence on interventions for other causes of unintentional injuries (poisoning, burns, and falls) to run similar simulations. Interpretation: Based on the little available evidence, key interventions have been identified to prevent lives lost from unintentional injuries among the poorest billion. This Article provides guidance to national authorities on evidence-based priority interventions that can reduce the burden of injuries among the most vulnerable members of the population. We also identify an important gap in knowledge on the effectiveness and the mortality impacts of injury interventions. Funding: Partly supported by the Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health (Chronic Consequences of Trauma, Injuries, Disability Across the Lifespan: Uganda; #D43TW009284).