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In this work, we study the applicability of the Azouani-Olson-Titi (AOT) nudging algorithm for continuous data assimilation to evolutionary dynamical systems that are not dissipative. Specifically, we apply the AOT algorithm to the Korteweg de-Vries (KdV) equation and a partially dissipative variant of the Lorenz 1963 system. Our analysis reveals that the KdV equation lacks the finitely many determining modes property, leading to the construction of infinitely many solutions with exactly the same sparse observational data, which data assimilation methods cannot distinguish between. We numerically verify that the AOT algorithm successfully recovers these counterexamples for the damped and driven KdV equation, as studied in [1], which is dissipative. Additionally, we demonstrate numerically that the AOT algorithm is not effective in accurately recovering solutions for a partially dissipative variant of the Lorenz 1963 system., Comment: [1] Michael S. Jolly, Tural Sadigov, and Edriss S. Titi. Determining form and data assimilation algorithm for weakly damped and driven Korteweg-de Vries equation-Fourier modes case. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 36:287-317, 2017

Classical solutions of the three-dimensional Euler equations of an ideal incompressible fluid conserve the helicity. We introduce a new weak formulation of the vorticity formulation of the Euler equations in which (by implementing the Bony paradifferential calculus) the advection terms are interpreted as paraproducts for weak solutions with low regularity. Using this approach we establish an equation of local helicity balance, which gives a rigorous foundation to the concept of local helicity density and flux at low regularity. We provide a sufficient criterion for helicity conservation which is weaker than many of the existing sufficient criteria for helicity conservation in the literature. Subsequently, we prove a sufficient condition for the helicity to be conserved in the zero viscosity limit of the Navier-Stokes equations. Moreover, under additional assumptions we establish a relation between the defect measure (which is part of the local helicity balance) and a third-order structure function for solutions of the Euler equations. As a byproduct of the approach introduced in this paper, we also obtain a new sufficient condition for the conservation of magnetic helicity in the inviscid MHD equations, as well as for the kinematic dynamo model. Finally, it is known that classical solutions of the ideal (inviscid) MHD equations which have divergence-free initial data will remain divergence-free, but this need not hold for weak solutions. We show that weak solutions of the ideal MHD equations arising as weak-$*$ limits of Leray-Hopf weak solutions of the viscous and resistive MHD equations remain divergence-free in time., Comment: 39 pages

In this paper, we consider the initial-boundary value problem to the three-dimensional primitive equations for the oceanic and atmospheric dynamics with only horizontal eddy viscosities in the horizontal momentum equations and only vertical diffusivity in the temperature equation in the domain $\Omega=M\times(-h,h)$, with $M=(0,1)\times(0,1)$. Global well-posedness of strong solutions is established, for any initial data $(v_0,T_0) \in H^1(\Omega)\cap L^\infty(\Omega)$ with $(\partial_z v_0, \nabla_H T_0) \in L^q(\Omega)$ and $v_0 \in L_z^1(B^1_{q,2}(M))$, for some $q \in (2,\infty)$, by using delicate energy estimates and maximal regularity estimate in the anisotropic setting., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1703.02512

This paper concerns the large time asymptotic behavior of solutions to the free boundary problem of the compressible primitive equations in atmospheric dynamics with physical vacuum. Up to second order of the perturbations of an equilibrium, we have introduced a model of the compressible primitive equations with a specific viscosity and shown that the physical vacuum free boundary problem for this model system has a global-in-time solution converging to an equilibrium exponentially, provided that the initial data is a small perturbation of the equilibrium. More precisely, we introduce a new coordinate system by choosing the enthalpy (the square of sound speed) as the vertical coordinate, and thanks to the hydrostatic balance, the degenerate density at the free boundary admits a representation with separation of variables in the new coordinates. Such a property allows us to establish horizontal derivative estimates without involving the singular vertical derivative of the density profile, which plays a key role in our analysis.

Data assimilation (DA) plays a pivotal role in diverse applications, ranging from climate predictions and weather forecasts to trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. A prime example is the widely used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), which relies on linear updates to minimize variance among the ensemble of forecast states. Recent advancements have seen the emergence of deep learning approaches in this domain, primarily within a supervised learning framework. However, the adaptability of such models to untrained scenarios remains a challenge. In this study, we introduce a novel DA strategy that utilizes reinforcement learning (RL) to apply state corrections using full or partial observations of the state variables. Our investigation focuses on demonstrating this approach to the chaotic Lorenz '63 system, where the agent's objective is to minimize the root-mean-squared error between the observations and corresponding forecast states. Consequently, the agent develops a correction strategy, enhancing model forecasts based on available system state observations. Our strategy employs a stochastic action policy, enabling a Monte Carlo-based DA framework that relies on randomly sampling the policy to generate an ensemble of assimilated realizations. Results demonstrate that the developed RL algorithm performs favorably when compared to the EnKF. Additionally, we illustrate the agent's capability to assimilate non-Gaussian data, addressing a significant limitation of the EnKF.

This study presents a collection of purely data-driven workflows for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) for distributed dynamical systems. The ROMs we focus on, are data-assisted models inspired by, and templated upon, the theory of Approximate Inertial Manifolds (AIMs); the particular motivation is the so-called post-processing Galerkin method of Garcia-Archilla, Novo and Titi. Its applicability can be extended: the need for accurate truncated Galerkin projections and for deriving closed-formed corrections can be circumvented using machine learning tools. When the right latent variables are not a priori known, we illustrate how autoencoders as well as Diffusion Maps (a manifold learning scheme) can be used to discover good sets of latent variables and test their explainability. The proposed methodology can express the ROMs in terms of (a) theoretical (Fourier coefficients), (b) linear data-driven (POD modes) and/or (c) nonlinear data-driven (Diffusion Maps) coordinates. Both Black-Box and (theoretically-informed and data-corrected) Gray-Box models are described; the necessity for the latter arises when truncated Galerkin projections are so inaccurate as to not be amenable to post-processing. We use the Chafee-Infante reaction-diffusion and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky dissipative partial differential equations to illustrate and successfully test the overall framework., Comment: 27 pages, 22 figures

Efficient downscaling of large ensembles of coarse-scale information is crucial in several applications, such as oceanic and atmospheric modeling. The determining form map is a theoretical lifting function from the low-resolution solution trajectories of a dissipative dynamical system to their corresponding fine-scale counterparts. Recently, a physics-informed deep neural network ("CDAnet") was introduced, providing a surrogate of the determining form map for efficient downscaling. CDAnet was demonstrated to efficiently downscale noise-free coarse-scale data in a deterministic setting. Herein, the performance of well-trained CDAnet models is analyzed in a stochastic setting involving (i) observational noise, (ii) model noise, and (iii) a combination of observational and model noises. The analysis is performed employing the Rayleigh-Benard convection paradigm, under three training conditions, namely, training with perfect, noisy, or downscaled data. Furthermore, the effects of noises, Rayleigh number, and spatial and temporal resolutions of the input coarse-scale information on the downscaled fields are examined. The results suggest that the expected l2-error of CDAnet behaves quadratically in terms of the standard deviations of the observational and model noises. The results also suggest that CDAnet responds to uncertainties similar to the theorized and numerically-validated CDA behavior with an additional error overhead due to CDAnet being a surrogate model of the determining form map.

We consider a non-linear Bayesian data assimilation model for the periodic two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with initial condition modelled by a Gaussian process prior. We show that if the system is updated with sufficiently many discrete noisy measurements of the velocity field, then the posterior distribution eventually concentrates near the ground truth solution of the time evolution equation, and in particular that the initial condition is recovered consistently by the posterior mean vector field. We further show that the convergence rate can in general not be faster than inverse logarithmic in sample size, but describe specific conditions on the initial conditions when faster rates are possible. In the proofs we provide an explicit quantitative estimate for backward uniqueness of solutions of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations., Comment: to appear in Annals of Statistics

We study selection by vanishing viscosity for the transport of a passive scalar $f(x,t)\in\mathbb{R}$ advected by a bounded, divergence-free vector field $u(x,t)\in\mathbb{R}^2$. This is described by the initial value problem to the PDE $\frac{\partial f}{\partial t} + \nabla\cdot (u f) = 0$, or with positive viscosity/diffusivity $\nu>0$, to the PDE $\frac{\partial f}{\partial t} + \nabla\cdot (u f) -\nu\Delta f = 0$. We demonstrate the failure of the vanishing viscosity limit to select (a) unique solutions or (b) physically admissible solutions in the sense of non-increasing energy/entropy., Comment: 52 pages

We develop a convex integration scheme for constructing nonunique weak solutions to the hydrostatic Euler equations (also known as the inviscid primitive equations of oceanic and atmospheric dynamics) in both two and three dimensions. We also develop such a scheme for the construction of nonunique weak solutions to the three-dimensional viscous primitive equations, as well as the two-dimensional Prandtl equations. While in [D.W. Boutros, S. Markfelder and E.S. Titi, Calc. Var. Partial Differential Equations, 62 (2023), 219] the classical notion of weak solution to the hydrostatic Euler equations was generalised, we introduce here a further generalisation. For such generalised weak solutions we show the existence and nonuniqueness for a large class of initial data. Moreover, we construct infinitely many examples of generalised weak solutions which do not conserve energy. The barotropic and baroclinic modes of solutions to the hydrostatic Euler equations (which are the average and the fluctuation of the horizontal velocity in the $z$-coordinate, respectively) that are constructed have different regularities., Comment: 78 pages

This paper considers the asymptotic limit of small aspect ratio between vertical and horizontal spatial scales for viscous isothermal compressible flows. In particular, it is observed that fast vertical acoustic waves arise and induce an averaging mechanism of the density in the vertical variable, which at the limit leads to the hydrostatic approximation of compressible flows, i.e., the compressible primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics. We justify the hydrostatic approximation for general as well as ``well-prepared'' initial data. The initial data is called well-prepared when it is close to the hydrostatic balance in a strong topology. Moreover, the convergence rate is calculated in the well-prepared initial data case in terms of the aspect ratio, as the latter goes to zero.

This paper is devoted to investigating the rotating Boussinesq equations of inviscid, incompressible flows with both fast Rossby waves and fast internal gravity waves. The main objective is to establish a rigorous derivation and justification of a new generalized quasi-geostrophic approximation in a channel domain with no normal flow at the upper and lower solid boundaries, taking into account the resonance terms due to the fast and slow waves interactions. Under these circumstances, We are able to obtain uniform estimates and compactness without the requirement of either well-prepared initial data (as in [10]) or domain with no boundary (as in [17]). In particular, the nonlinear resonances and the new limit system, which takes into account the fast waves correction to the slow waves dynamics, are also identified without introducing Fourier series expansion. The key ingredient includes the introduction of (full) generalized potential vorticity.

We prove global well-posedness of the ocean primitive equations coupled to advection-diffusion equations of the oceanic tracers temperature and salinity that are supplemented by the eddy parametrization model due to Gent-McWilliams and Redi. This parametrization forms a milestone in global ocean modelling and constitutes a central part of any general ocean circulation model computation. The eddy parametrization adds a secondary transport velocity to the tracer equation and renders the original Laplacian operators in the advection-diffusion equations nonlinear, with a diffusion matrix that depends via the equation of state in a nonlinear fashion on both tracers simultaneously. The eddy parametrization of Gent-McWilliams-Redi augments the complexity of the mathematical analysis of the whole system which we present here. We show first that weak solutions exist globally in time, provided the parametrization uses a regularized density. Then we prove by a detailed analysis of the eddy operators the global well-posedness. Our results apply also to the ``small-slope approximation'' that is commonly used in global ocean simulations., Comment: 31 pages

We consider the three-dimensional incompressible Euler equations on a bounded domain $\Omega$ with $C^4$ boundary. We prove that if the velocity field $u \in C^{0,\alpha} (\Omega)$ with $\alpha > 0$ (where we are omitting the time dependence), it follows that the corresponding pressure $p$ of a weak solution to the Euler equations belongs to the H\"older space $C^{0, \alpha} (\Omega)$. We also prove that away from the boundary $p$ has $C^{0,2\alpha}$ regularity. In order to prove these results we use a local parametrisation of the boundary and a very weak formulation of the boundary condition for the pressure of the weak solution, as was introduced in [C. Bardos and E.S. Titi, Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. A, 380 (2022), 20210073], which is different than the commonly used boundary condition for classical solutions of the Euler equations. Moreover, we provide an explicit example illustrating the necessity of this new very weak formulation of the boundary condition for the pressure. Furthermore, we also provide a rigorous derivation of this new formulation of the boundary condition for weak solutions of the Euler equations. This result is of importance for the proof of the first half of the Onsager Conjecture, the sufficient conditions for energy conservation of weak solutions to the three-dimensional incompressible Euler equations in bounded domains. In particular, the results in this paper remove the need for separate regularity assumptions on the pressure in the proof of the Onsager conjecture., Comment: 59 pages

We study a nonlinear-nudging modification of the Azouani-Olson-Titi continuous data assimilation (downscaling) algorithm for the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. We give a rigorous proof that the nonlinear-nudging system is globally well-posed, and moreover that its solutions converge to the true solution exponentially fast in time. Furthermore, we also prove that, once the error has decreased below a certain order one threshold, the convergence becomes double-exponentially fast in time, up until a precision determined by the sparsity of the observed data. In addition, we demonstrate the applicability of the analytical and sharpness of the results computationally., Comment: 33 pages, 7 figures

We study the three-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in a smooth bounded domain $\Omega$ with initial velocity $u_0$ square-integrable, divergence-free and tangent to $\partial \Omega$. We supplement the equations with the Navier friction boundary conditions $u \cdot n = 0$ and $[(2Su)n + \alpha u]_{\rm tang} = 0$, where $n$ is the unit exterior normal to $\partial \Omega$, $Su = (Du + (Du)^t)/2$, $\alpha \in C^0(\partial\Omega)$ is the boundary friction coefficient and $[\cdot]_{\rm tang}$ is the projection of its argument onto the tangent space of $\partial \Omega$. We prove global existence of a weak Leray-type solution to the resulting initial-boundary value problem and exponential decay in energy norm of these solutions when friction is positive. We also prove exponential decay if friction is non-negative and the domain is not a solid of revolution. In addition, in the frictionless case $\alpha = 0$, we prove convergence of the solution to a steady rigid rotation, if the domain is a solid of revolution. We use the Galerkin method for existence, Poincar\'{e}-type inequalities, with suitable adaptations to account for the differential geometry of the boundary, and a global-in-time, integral Gronwall-type inequality.

A compressible, viscous and heat conducting fluid is confined between two parallel plates maintained at a constant temperature and subject to a strong stratification due to the gravitational force. We consider the asymptotic limit, where the Mach number and the Froude number are of the same order proportional to a small parameter. We show the limit problem can be identified with Majda's model of layered ``stack-of-pancake'' flow., Comment: published version. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2206.14041

Obtaining accurate high-resolution representations of model outputs is essential to describe the system dynamics. In general, however, only spatially- and temporally-coarse observations of the system states are available. These observations can also be corrupted by noise. Downscaling is a process/scheme in which one uses coarse scale observations to reconstruct the high-resolution solution of the system states. Continuous Data Assimilation (CDA) is a recently introduced downscaling algorithm that constructs an increasingly accurate representation of the system states by continuously nudging the large scales using the coarse observations. We introduce a Discrete Data Assimilation (DDA) algorithm as a downscaling algorithm based on CDA with discrete-in-time nudging. We then investigate the performance of the CDA and DDA algorithms for downscaling noisy observations of the Rayleigh-B\'enard convection system in the chaotic regime. In this computational study, a set of noisy observations was generated by perturbing a reference solution with Gaussian noise before downscaling them. The downscaled fields are then assessed using various error- and ensemble-based skill scores. The CDA solution was shown to converge towards the reference solution faster than that of DDA but at the cost of a higher asymptotic error. The numerical results also suggest a quadratic relationship between the $\ell_2$ error and the noise level for both CDA and DDA. Cubic and quadratic dependences of the DDA and CDA expected errors on the spatial resolution of the observations were obtained, respectively.

Onsager's conjecture, which relates the conservation of energy to the regularity of weak solutions of the Euler equations, was completely resolved in recent years. In this work, we pursue an analogue of Onsager's conjecture in the context of the hydrostatic Euler equations (also known as the inviscid primitive equations of oceanic and atmospheric dynamics). In this case the relevant conserved quantity is the horizontal kinetic energy. We first consider the standard notion of weak solution which is commonly used in the literature. We show that if the horizontal velocity $(u,v)$ is sufficiently regular then the horizontal kinetic energy is conserved. Interestingly, the spatial H\"older regularity exponent which is sufficient for energy conservation in the context of the hydrostatic Euler equations is $\frac{1}{2}$ and hence larger than the corresponding regularity exponent for the Euler equations (which is $\frac{1}{3}$). This is due to the anisotropic regularity of the velocity field: Unlike the Euler equations, in the case of the hydrostatic Euler equations the vertical velocity $w$ is one degree spatially less regular with respect to the horizontal variables, compared to the horizontal velocity $(u,v)$. Since the standard notion of weak solution is not able to deal with this anisotropy properly, we introduce two new notions of weak solutions for which the vertical part of the nonlinearity is interpreted as a paraproduct. We finally prove several sufficient conditions for such weak solutions to conserve energy., Comment: 44 pages

In the work, we consider the zero Mach number limit of compressible primitive equations in the domain $\mathbb{R}^2 \times 2\mathbb{T}$ or $\mathbb{T}^2 \times 2\mathbb{T}$. We identify the limit equations to be the primitive equations with the incompressible condition. The convergence behaviors are studied in both $\mathbb{R}^2 \times 2\mathbb{T}$ and $\mathbb{T}^2 \times 2\mathbb{T}$, respectively. This paper takes into account the high oscillating acoustic waves and is an extension of our previous work by X. Liu and E.S. Titi, Arch. Rational Mech. Anal., 238, 705-747, 2020.

The first half of Onsager's conjecture states that the Euler equations of an ideal incompressible fluid conserve energy if $u (\cdot ,t) \in C^{0, \theta} (\mathbb{T}^3)$ with $\theta > \frac{1}{3}$. In this paper, we prove an analogue of Onsager's conjecture for several subgrid scale $\alpha$-models of turbulence. In particular we find the required H\"older regularity of the solutions that ensures the conservation of energy-like quantities (either the $H^1 (\mathbb{T}^3)$ or $L^2 (\mathbb{T}^3)$ norms) for these models. We establish such results for the Leray-$\alpha$ model, the Euler-$\alpha$ equations (also known as the inviscid Camassa-Holm equations or Lagrangian averaged Euler equations), the modified Leray-$\alpha$ model, the Clark-$\alpha$ model and finally the magnetohydrodynamic Leray-$\alpha$ model. In a sense, all these models are inviscid regularisations of the Euler equations; and formally converge to the Euler equations as the regularisation length scale $\alpha \rightarrow 0^+$. Different H\"older exponents, smaller than $1/3$, are found for the regularity of solutions of these models (they are also formulated in terms of Besov and Sobolev spaces) that guarantee the conservation of the corresponding energy-like quantity. This is expected due to the smoother nonlinearity compared to the Euler equations. These results form a contrast to the universality of the $1/3$ Onsager exponent found for general systems of conservation laws by (Gwiazda et al., 2018; Bardos et al., 2019)., Comment: 38 pages

In this work we study the global solvability of moisture dynamics with phase changes for warm clouds. We thereby in comparison to previous studies [Hittmeir-Klein-Li-Titi (2017)] take into account the different gas constants for dry air and water vapor as well as the different heat capacities for dry air, water vapor and liquid water, which leads to a much stronger coupling of the moisture balances and the thermodynamic equation. This refined thermodynamic setting has been demonstrated to be essential e.g. in the case of deep convective cloud columns in [Hittmeir-Klein (2017)]. The more complicated structure requires careful derivations of sufficient a priori estimates for proving global existence and uniqueness of solutions., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.11199

We consider three-dimensional (3D) Boussinesq convection system of an incompressible fluid in a closed sample of a porous medium. Specifically, we introduce and analyze a 3D Brinkman-Forchheimer-B\'enard convection problem describing the behavior of an incompressible fluid in a porous medium between two plates heated from the bottom and cooled from the top. We show the existence and uniqueness of global in-time solutions, and the existence of absorbing balls in $L^2$ and $H^1$. Eventually, we comment on the applicability of a data assimilation algorithm to our system.

We study the effect of the fast rotation and vertical viscosity on the lifespan of solutions to the three-dimensional primitive equations (also known as the hydrostatic Navier-Stokes equations) with impermeable and stress-free boundary conditions. Firstly, for a short time interval, independent of the rate of rotation $|\Omega|$, we establish the local well-posedness of solutions with initial data that is analytic in the horizontal variables and only $L^2$ in the vertical variable. Moreover, it is shown that the solutions immediately become analytic in all the variables with increasing-in-time (at least linearly) radius of analyticity in the vertical variable for as long as the solutions exist. On the other hand, the radius of analyticity in the horizontal variables might decrease with time, but as long as it remains positive the solution exists. Secondly, with fast rotation, i.e., large $|\Omega|$, we show that the existence time of the solution can be prolonged, with "well-prepared" initial data. Finally, in the case of two spatial dimensions with $\Omega=0$, we establish the global well-posedness provided that the initial data is small enough. The smallness condition on the initial data depends on the vertical viscosity and the initial radius of analyticity in the horizontal variables., Comment: 45 pages

This study assesses a Continuous Data Assimilation (CDA) dynamical-downscaling algorithm for enhancing the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) system. CDA is a mathematically rigorous technique that has been recently introduced to constrain the large-scale features of high-resolution atmospheric models with coarse spatial scale data. It is similar to spectral nudging but does not require any spectral decomposition for scales separation. This is expected to be particularly relevant for ISM, which involves various interactions between large-scale circulations and regional physical processes. Along with a control simulation, several downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using CDA, spectral (retaining different wavenumbers) and grid nudging for three ISM seasons: normal (2016), excess (2013), and drought (2009). The simulations are nested within the NCEP Final Analysis and the model outputs are evaluated against the observations. Compared to grid and spectral nudging, the simulations using CDA produce enhanced ISM features over the Indian subcontinent including the low-level jet, tropical easterly jet, easterly wind shear, and rainfall distributions for all investigated ISM seasons. The major ISM processes, in particular the monsoon inversion over the Arabian Sea, tropospheric temperature gradients and moist static energy over central India, and zonal wind shear over the monsoon region, are all better simulated with CDA. Spectral nudging outputs are found to be sensitive to the choice of the wavenumber, requiring careful tuning to provide robust simulations of the ISM system. In contrast, control and grid nudging generally fail to well reproduce some of the main ISM features., Comment: Research Article

We prove the inviscid limit for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations for data that are analytic only near the boundary in a general two-dimensional bounded domain. Our proof is direct, using the vorticity formulation with a nonlocal boundary condition, the explicit semigroup of the linear Stokes problem near the flatten boundary, and the standard wellposedness theory of Navier-Stokes equations in Sobolev spaces away from the boundary., Comment: 28 pages

The purpose of this note is to give a complete proof of a $C^{0,\alpha}$ regularity result for the pressure for weak solutions of the two-dimensional "incompressible Euler equations" when the fluid velocity enjoys the same type of regularity in a compact simply connected domain with $C^2$ boundary. To accomplish our result we realize that it is compulsory to introduce a new weak formulation for the boundary condition of the pressure which is consistent with, and equivalent to, that of classical solutions.

In this paper, we provide rigorous justification of the hydrostatic approximation and the derivation of primitive equations as the small aspect ratio limit of the incompressible three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the anisotropic horizontal viscosity regime. Setting $\varepsilon >0$ to be the small aspect ratio of the vertical to the horizontal scales of the domain, we investigate the case when the horizontal and vertical viscosities in the incompressible three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations are of orders $O(1)$ and $O(\varepsilon^\alpha)$, respectively, with $\alpha>2$, for which the limiting system is the primitive equations with only horizontal viscosity as $\varepsilon$ tends to zero. In particular we show that for "well prepared" initial data the solutions of the scaled incompressible three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations converge strongly, in any finite interval of time, to the corresponding solutions of the anisotropic primitive equations with only horizontal viscosities, as $\varepsilon$ tends to zero, and that the convergence rate is of order $O\left(\varepsilon^\frac\beta2\right)$, where $\beta=\min\{\alpha-2,2\}$. Note that this result is different from the case $\alpha=2$ studied in [Li, J.; Titi, E.S.: \emph{The primitive equations as the small aspect ratio limit of the Navier-Stokes equations: Rigorous justification of the hydrostatic approximation}, J. Math. Pures Appl., \textbf{124} \rm(2019), 30--58], where the limiting system is the primitive equations with full viscosities and the convergence is globally in time and its rate of order $O\left(\varepsilon\right)$.

Differential buoyancy surface sources in the ocean may induce a density-driven flow that joins faster flow components to create a multi-scale, 3D flow. Potential temperature and salinity are active tracers that determine the ocean's potential density: their distribution strongly affects the density-driven component while the overall flow affects their distribution. We present a robust framework that allows one to study the effects of a general 3D flow on a density-driven velocity component, by constructing a modular observation-based 3D model of intermediate complexity. The model contains an incompressible velocity that couples two advection-diffusion equations, for temperature and salinity. Instead of solving the Navier-Stokes equations for the velocity, we consider a flow composed of several temporally separated, spatially predetermined modes. One of these modes models the density-driven flow: its spatial form describes the density-driven flow structure and its strength is determined dynamically by average density differences. The other modes are completely predetermined, consisting of any incompressible, possibly unsteady, 3D flow, e.g. as determined by kinematic models, observations, or simulations. The model is a non-linear, weakly coupled system of two non-local PDEs. We prove its well-posedness in the sense of Hadamard, and obtain rigorous bounds regarding analytical solutions. The model's relevance to oceanic systems is demonstrated by tuning the model to mimic the North Atlantic ocean's dynamics. In one limit the model recovers a simplified oceanic box model and in another limit a kinematic model of oceanic chaotic advection, suggesting it can be utilized to study spatially dependent feedback processes in the ocean., Comment: 15 pages text, 20 pages appendix, 5 figures

This paper establishes the local-in-time well-posedness of solutions to an approximating system constructed by mildly regularizing the dynamical sea-ice model of {\it W.D. Hibler, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1979}. Our choice of regularization has been carefully designed, prompted by physical considerations, to retain the original coupled hyperbolic-parabolic character of Hibler's model. Various regularized versions of this model have been used widely for the numerical simulation of the circulation and thickness of the Arctic ice cover. However, due to the singularity in the ice rheology, the notion of solutions to the original model is unclear. Instead, an approximating system, which captures current numerical study, is proposed. The well-posedness theory of such a system provides a first-step groundwork in both numerical study and future analytical study.

We study the effect of the rotation on the life-span of solutions to the $3D$ hydrostatic Euler equations with rotation and the inviscid Primitive equations (PEs) on the torus. The space of analytic functions appears to be the natural space to study the initial value problem for the inviscid PEs with general initial data, as they have been recently shown to exhibit Kelvin-Helmholtz type instability. First, for a short interval of time that is independent of the rate of rotation $|\Omega|$, we establish the local well-posedness of the inviscid PEs in the space of analytic functions. In addition, thanks to a fine analysis of the barotropic and baroclinic modes decomposition, we establish two results about the long time existence of solutions. (i) Independently of $|\Omega|$, we show that the life-span of the solution tends to infinity as the analytic norm of the initial baroclinic mode goes to zero. Moreover, we show in this case that the solution of the $3D$ inviscid PEs converges to the solution of the limit system, which is governed by the $2D$ Euler equations. (ii) We show that the life-span of the solution can be prolonged unboundedly with $|\Omega|\rightarrow \infty$, which is the main result of this paper. This is established for "well-prepared" initial data, namely, when only the Sobolev norm (but not the analytic norm) of the baroclinic mode is small enough, depending on $|\Omega|$. Furthermore, for large $|\Omega|$ and "well-prepared" initial data, we show that the solution to the $3D$ inviscid PEs is approximated by the solution to a simple limit resonant system with the same initial data.

Large scale dynamics of the oceans and the atmosphere are governed by the primitive equations (PEs). It is well-known that the three-dimensional viscous PEs is globally well-posed in Sobolev spaces. On the other hand, the inviscid PEs without rotation is known to be ill-posed in Sobolev spaces, and its smooth solutions can form singularity in finite time. In this paper, we extend the above results in the presence of rotation. First, we construct finite-time blowup solutions to the inviscid PEs with rotation, and establish that the inviscid PEs with rotation is ill-posed in Sobolev spaces in the sense that its perturbation around a certain steady state background flow is both linearly and nonlinearly ill-posed in Sobolev spaces. Its linear instability is of the Kelvin-Helmholtz type similar to the one appears in the context of vortex sheets problem. This implies that the inviscid PEs is also linearly ill-posed in Gevrey class of order $s > 1$, and suggests that a suitable space for the well-posedness is Gevrey class of order $s = 1$, which is exactly the space of analytic functions., Comment: 15 pages

We analyze a three-dimensional rapidly rotating convection model of tall columnar structure in the limit of infinite Prandtl number, i.e., when the momentum diffusivity is much more dominant than the thermal diffusivity. Consequently, the dynamics of the velocity field takes place at a much faster time scale than the temperature fluctuation, and at the limit the velocity field formally adjusts instantaneously to the thermal fluctuation. We prove the global well-posedness of weak solutions and strong solutions to this model.

We study the three-dimensional Navier--Stokes equations of rotating incompressible viscous fluids with periodic boundary conditions. The asymptotic expansions, as time goes to infinity, are derived in all Gevrey spaces for any Leray-Hopf weak solutions in terms of oscillating, exponentially decaying functions. The results are established for all non-zero rotation speeds, and for both cases with and without the zero spatial average of the solutions. Our method makes use of the Poincar\'e waves to rewrite the equations, and then implements the Gevrey norm techniques to deal with the resulting time-dependent bi-linear form. Special solutions are also found which form infinite dimensional invariant linear manifolds.

In this work we study the global solvability of the primitive equations for the atmosphere coupled to moisture dynamics with phase changes for warm clouds, where water is present in the form of water vapor and in the liquid state as cloud water and rain water. This moisture model contains closures for the phase changes condensation and evaporation, as well as the processes of autoconversion of cloud water into rainwater and the collection of cloud water by the falling rain droplets. It has been used by Klein and Majda in \cite{KM} and corresponds to a basic form of the bulk microphysics closure in the spirit of Kessler \cite{Ke} and Grabowski and Smolarkiewicz \cite{GS}. The moisture balances are strongly coupled to the thermodynamic equation via the latent heat associated to the phase changes. In \cite{HKLT} we assumed the velocity field to be given and proved rigorously the global existence and uniqueness of uniformly bounded solutions of the moisture balances coupled to the thermodynamic equation. In this paper we present the solvability of a full moist atmospheric flow model, where the moisture model is coupled to the primitive equations of atmospherical dynamics governing the velocity field. For the derivation of a priori estimates for the velocity field we thereby use the ideas of Cao and Titi \cite{CT}, who succeeded in proving the global solvability of the primitive equations.

Continuous data assimilation (CDA) is successfully implemented for the first time for efficient dynamical downscaling of a global atmospheric reanalysis. A comparison of the performance of CDA with the standard grid and spectral nudging techniques for representing long- and short-scale features in the downscaled fields using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is further presented and analyzed. The WRF model is configured at 25km horizontal resolution and is driven by 250km initial and boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields. Downscaling experiments are performed over a one-month period in January, 2016. The similarity metric is used to evaluate the performance of the downscaling methods for large and small scales. Similarity results are compared for the outputs of the WRF model with different downscaling techniques, NCEP reanalysis, and Final Analysis. Both spectral nudging and CDA describe better the small-scale features compared to grid nudging. The choice of the wave number is critical in spectral nudging; increasing the number of retained frequencies generally produced better small-scale features, but only up to a certain threshold after which its solution gradually became closer to grid nudging. CDA maintains the balance of the large- and small-scale features similar to that of the best simulation achieved by the best spectral nudging configuration, without the need of a spectral decomposition. The different downscaled atmospheric variables, including rainfall distribution, with CDA is most consistent with the observations. The Brier skill score values further indicate that the added value of CDA is distributed over the entire model domain. The overall results clearly suggest that CDA provides an efficient new approach for dynamical downscaling by maintaining better balance between the global model and the downscaled fields., Comment: 27 Pages, 13 figures

We construct a determining form for the 2D Rayleigh-B\'enard (RB) system in a strip with solid horizontal boundaries, in the cases of no-slip and stress-free boundary conditions. The determining form is an ODE in a Banach space of trajectories whose steady states comprise the long-time dynamics of the RB system. In fact, solutions on the global attractor of the RB system can be further identified through the zeros of a scalar equation to which the ODE reduces for each initial trajectory. The twist in this work is that the trajectories are for the velocity field only, which in turn determines the corresponding trajectories of the temperature.