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Abstract Meniscus pathologies (damage, extrusion) and synovitis are associated with knee osteoarthritis (KOA); however, whether synovitis mediates the relationship between meniscus pathologies and KOA radiographic progression remains unclear. We conducted an observational study in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort, with a 48-month follow-up. Meniscus pathology and synovitis were measured by MRI osteoarthritis knee score (MOAKS) at baseline and 24 months, and a comprehensive synovitis score was calculated using effusion and Hoffa synovitis scores. The knee osteoarthritis radiographic progression was considered that Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grade and joint space narrowing (JSN) grade at 48 months were increased compared to those at baseline. This study included a total of 589 participants, with KL grades mainly being KL1 (26.5%), KL2 (34.1%), and KL3 (30.2%) at baseline, while JSN grades were mostly 0 at baseline. A logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship between meniscus pathology, synovitis, and KOA progression. Mediation analysis was used to evaluate the mediation effect of synovitis. The average age of the participants was 61 years old, 62% of which were female. The medial meniscus extrusion was longitudinally correlated with the progression of KL (odds ratio [OR]: 2.271, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.412–3.694) and medial JSN (OR: 3.211, 95% CI: 2.040–5.054). Additionally, the longitudinal correlation between medial meniscus damage and progression of KOA (OR: 1.853, 95% CI: 1.177–2.941) and medial JSN (OR: 1.655, 95% CI: 1.053–2.602) was significant. Synovitis was found to mediate the relationship between medial meniscus extrusion and KL and medial JSN progression at baseline (β: 0.029, 95% CI: 0.010–0.053; β: 0.022, 95% CI: 0.005–0.046) and beyond 24 months (β: 0.039, 95% CI: 0.016–0.068; β: 0.047, 95% CI: 0.020–0.078). However, we did not find evidence of synovitis mediating the relationship between meniscal damage and KOA progression. Synovitis mediates the relationship between medial meniscus extrusion (rather than meniscus damage) and KOA progression.

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations and associated estuarine high turbidity zones (HTZ) play crucial role in maintaining delta land building, coastal wetlands and marine ecosystems. In the background of new water-sediment delivery regime and major geomorphological transition in delta, the long-term change characteristics and driving mechanisms of SPM and HTZ in the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) are not clarified. In this study, it was found that the existing SPM models could not be adapted to the extremely turbid YRE, for which a novel SPM retrieval algorithm and HTZ extraction method were developed. Spatiotemporal dynamics of SPM and HTZ in YRE from 1984 to 2023 were investigated using 798 Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI imageries. Results indicated that our proposed SPM algorithm outperformed all the previous models of YRE (R2 > 0.95, relative percentage difference (RPD)< 22%), and high accuracies were achieved for both satellite-derived SPM (RPD = 33.01%) and HTZ (overall accuracy = 94%). Over the last four decades, both SPM concentration and HTZ distribution area in YRE had demonstrated an increasing and then decreasing trend, reaching a peak around 1996. HTZ experienced four morphological transformations involving the circular shape surrounding coast (1984–1993), the enlarged southeasterly ovoid shape (1994–2007), the circle-like shape (2007–2017) and the thin northeasterly ovoid shape (2018–2023). Riverine sediment load and strong-wind frequency controlled 67% of interannual SPM variability in the study area, and the former contributed more. Moreover, combination of weakening ocean dynamics and coastal erosion, coarsening of sediments, and coastal defense structures led to an exponential decline of SPM concentrations in northern subregion. High sediment discharge and rapid accretion of estuarine spit in 1984–1996 resulted in increased SPM concentrations in southern subregion and a quick expansion of HTZ into Laizhou Bay. With the geomorphological evolution of new and old estuaries, the high velocity zone and strong bottom shear stress zone were consequently adjusted, which explained the interannual variability of SPM and HTZ in the region. This study will contribute to understanding of the long-term evolutionary patterns of the coupled system consisting of runoff-tidal dynamics, sediment transport and geomorphological development in the estuary.

Abstract Background Knee joint pain has been demonstrated to be a separate risk factor for falling. A common pain site in the knee, anterior knee pain(AKP), is believed to be associated with early knee osteoarthritis (KOA).This study investigated the relationship between falls and AKP in people with or at risk for KOA. Methods Four years of follow-up data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort trial, a large-scale, multicenter observational investigation, were analyzed in this study. A patellar quadriceps tenderness/tendinitis knee exam was performed to evaluate AKP. Falls were self-reported. The associations between falls (recurrent falls: ≥2 falls/year; any falls: ≥1 fall(s)/year) and AKP were analyzed using the generalized estimation equation of repeated logistic regression and adjusted for confounding variables. Results The study analyzed data from 3,318 participants, split into two groups: those with AKP (720 participants) and those without AKP (2,598 participants). The primary outcome of the study, which focused on repeated falls, revealed that participants with AKP were 1.27 times more likely to experience repeated falls compared to those without AKP (95% CI: 1.07–1.52, P = 0.007). However, when considering any falls experienced by an individual as an additional outcome, it is important to note that our findings did not indicate a significant predictive effect of AKP on any falls investigated. Sensitivity analyses, which excluded knee arthroplasty cases, yielded consistent results with the aforementioned findings. Conclusions Older adults with AKP experience a higher frequency of falls compared to those without AKP in individuals diagnosed with KOA or at a high risk of developing KOA.

Pollen and spore records in prodeltaic sediments hold significant potential for reconstructing paleoecologic and paleoclimatic evolution. However, uncertainties in these reconstructions arise from millennial-scale prodelta evolution, which dominates stratigraphic development and consequently influences sedimentary processes and/or pollen provenance. Here we explore the intricate relationship between pollen/spore records and prodelta stratigraphic evolution, using established seismic stratigraphy and ten sediment cores (five new, five from literature) within both the proximal and distal (mud belt) parts of the Huanghe (Yellow River) prodelta. In the proximal region, dominant lobate stratigraphic development, accompanied by shifts in river mouth and depocenter, leads to variations in pollen assemblages and contents within individual cores and differences in vertical pollen distribution across core sites. Transport distance appears to be a key factor, with arboreal pollens, particularly saccate ones (e.g., Pinus), positively correlating with the distance from the river mouth in their percentages within a single delta lobe, while non-arboreal and non-saccate arboreal pollens show higher percentages within shorter transport distances, despite longer distances leading to decreased total pollen concentrations. Likely due to the total pollen concentration after extended long-distance transport, this pattern is not observable in the distal mud belt. Subsurface stratigraphy in this mud belt reveals a complex pollen provenance characterized by Artemisia-Ulmus-Chenopodiaceae-Pinus, with non-arboreal pollens in dominance. Therein, non-arboreal pollens are not consistent with deposition from long-distance transport, and Ulmus pollens are uncommon in the western Bohai Sea. Interestingly, surface sediments in the mud belt display a different assemblage, characterized by Pinus-Artemisia-Quercus, consistent with the nearby Luanhe River prodelta, suggesting recent pollen supply from nearby sources, possibly due to the recent abandonment of the mud belt. Additionally, an energetic longshore transport/erosional regime reduces pollen content at the mud-belt margins and create pollen sinks (with the highest concentration) in the mud patch (accumulation area) within the erosion-dominated region adjacent to the mud belt. Our findings confirm that stratigraphic evolution, alongside hydrodynamic conditions and pollen provenance, governs pollen assemblages in deltaic/prodeltaic sediments. They can provide insights for palynological and pollen-based paleoclimatic and paleoecologic studies in other deltas.

The groundwater environment in low-lying coastal regions is significantly impacted by global sea-level fluctuation. In Laizhou Bay, three large-scale transgressions have occurred since the late Pleistocene, resulting in the transformation of ancient seawater into brine. This brine has become a major contributor to groundwater salinity in the area. This study establishes a correlation between groundwater occurrence and paleoclimate changes in Laizhou Bay using borehole sediment data. The source and mechanism of groundwater salinity are analyzed based on sediment pore water characteristics and hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. The study reveals that the stratigraphic structures in the area consist of four layers: a Holocene transgressive layer, a continental confining bed from the late Pleistocene, a Cangzhou transgressive layer from the late Pleistocene, and a fluvial aquifer from the middle Pleistocene. All aquifers in the study area have been infiltrated by modern seawater, with the uppermost Holocene aquifer influenced by evaporation and leaching processes, the central late Pleistocene aquifer remaining relatively stable, and the lower middle Pleistocene aquifer affected by subsurface low salinity runoff and exhibiting an increasing trend with depth. Given the presence of numerous hydrogeological environments globally that are similar to the study area, the obtained mechanisms of groundwater salinization in this study will provide theoretical support for groundwater management in similar regions worldwide.

This study presents an in-depth analysis of the dynamic beach landscapes of Hainan Island, which is located at the southernmost tip of China. Home to over a hundred natural and predominantly sandy beaches, Hainan Island confronts significant challenges posed by frequent marine natural disasters and human activities. Addressing the urgent need for long-term studies of beach dynamics, this research involved the use of CoastSat to extract and analyze shoreline data from 20 representative beaches and calculate the slopes of 119 sandy beaches around the island for the period from 2013 to 2023. The objective was to delineate the patterns of beach evolution that contribute to the prevention of sediment loss, the mitigation of coastal hazards, and the promotion of sustainable coastal zone management. By employing multi-source remote sensing imagery and the CoastSat tool, this investigation validated slope measurements across selected beaches, demonstrating consistency between the calculated and actual distances despite minor anomalies. The effective use of the finite element solution (FES) in the 2014 global tidal model for tidal corrections further aligned the coastlines with the mean shoreline, underscoring CoastSat’s utility in enabling precise coastal studies. The analysis revealed significant seasonal variations in shoreline positions, with approximately half of the monitored sites showing a seaward progression in summer and a retreat in winter, which were linked to variations in wave height. The southern beaches exhibited distinct seasonal variations, which contrasted with the general trend due to differing wave impacts. The western and southern shores showed erosion, while the northern and eastern shores displayed accretion. The calculated slopes across the island indicated that the southern beaches had steeper slopes, while the northern areas exhibited more pronounced slope variations due to wave and tidal impacts. These findings highlight the critical role of integrated coastal management and erosion control strategies in safeguarding Hainan Island’s beaches. By understanding the mechanisms driving seasonal and regional shoreline changes, effective measures can be developed to mitigate the impacts of erosion and enhance the resilience of coastal ecosystems amidst changing environmental conditions. This research provides a foundational basis for future efforts aimed at the sustainable development and utilization of coastal resources on Hainan Island.

River deltas rank among the most ecologically and socio-economically valuable environments on the planet. The Yellow River Delta in China is not only home to young wetland ecosystem, but also to world-renowned tourism resources. One of these was the unique yellow-blue demarcation line (YBDL), formed in the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) as a result of the meeting of terrestrial sediment-laden river water and clear sea water, which had developed into a famous attraction and generated significant tourism revenues. Moreover, its distribution was of vital ecological and geomorphological importance due to association with the dynamics of estuarine turbidity plume. However, little is yet known about the dynamics and influencing factors of YBDL. In this study, we proposed an integrated method for extracting YBDL from satellite imagery and investigated the spatiotemporal distributions of YBDL during the flood season (June-October) from 2016 to 2022 using multi-source satellite imageries. The average relative error of our algorithm reached 10.53%. The results indicated that the YBDL started to frequently occur after 2018, mainly distributed within 10 km off the YRE, with two types of short straight and long curved shapes. July was the period with the highest frequency and most widespread distribution of YBDL. The riverine water and sediment discharge controlled 45.9% of the variations in YBDL length, and the extreme flooding, as well as the implementation of Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme, significantly increased the distribution extent of the YBDL. The morphology of river distributary mouths dominated the changes in the YBDL distribution centres, and the north distributary mouth experienced dramatic evolution in the last three years, with an increased YBDL distribution. Tidal currents could promote the development of YBDL at the front of the river mouth plumes while inhibiting the YBDL on the other side. This study is the first systematic investigation of the spatiotemporal evolutions and driving mechanisms of YBDL in the YRE, which could provide a reference for tourism planning and YRE National Park construction.

In this paper, an extended three-dimensional (3D) model of the Yellow River Estuary (YRE) is established. It is based on a Delft 3D shallow-water high-resolution hydrodynamic model. The model is calibrated and verified by field observation data, which ensures its stability and accuracy, and provides a better simulation of the river plume in the estuary under different flow inputs. Since 2009, the spring flow pulse of the Yellow River can be divided into four types. The strong flow pulse is more conducive to the extension of the low salinity zone (LSZ). Doubling the peak discharge of pulse flow increases the LSZ area by 60%. The retardation time of salinity change in response to the flow pulse in estuary waters is weakly affected by the flow pulse intensity. The difference in shear front between the spring tide and the neap tide is the main dynamic mechanism contributing to the different retardation times. The average retardation time is 73 h during the spring tide and 55 h during the neap tide. In order to reduce the estuary salinity, it is suggested that the optimal time for the peak value of flow pulse in the river mouth is during the neap tide. HIGHLIGHTS An extended three-dimensional (3D) model of the Yellow River is established based on a Delft 3D shallow-water high-resolution hydrodynamic model.; The study focused on the change process of salinity distribution in the Yellow River Estuary under different discharge conditions.; The retardation time of salinity change in response to the flow pulse in estuary waters is affected by the flow pulse intensity.;

The Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has the characteristics of high efficiency, small size and cost, which can monitor the evolution trend of tidal flat, and can also observe the short-duration developments of tidal flat that are difficult to be captured by satellite. Based on the technology of UAV, orthophotos of regional image were generated and the beach and vegetation areas of tidal flats were obtained in Lingang (Shanghai), and then the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-period sand area and vegetation on tidal flats and their responses to different events were analyzed. The results indicated: the supratidal zone of Lingang tidal flat had changed from muddy beach to sandy beach gradually in recent years; The vegetation on the tidal flat had seasonal changes, withering in autumn and winter, and flourishing in spring and summer, the variability of the western part on the tidal flat was most obvious. The sandy beach was exposed as the vegetation withers and was easily eroded by the interaction of wave and tide; compared with the seasonal transformation, the response of the beach to the event was more significant, and the tidal flat changed sharply due to flood-induced deposition and typhoon-induced erosion.

Freshwater and sediments are transported from the Yellow River mouth downstream along the coast into Laizhou Bay under the northeasterly wind in winter. Numerical experiments indicate that sediment transport shows the tendency of convergence in the river mouth, divergence in the downstream area, and convergence in the north of Laizhou Bay. Tides and waves are the two main forcings affecting the transport of water and sediments off river mouths. For the high-turbidity Yellow River mouth and the adjacent sea, tidal forcing enhances the subtidal downstream transport of water and sediments off the river mouth into Laizhou Bay, whereas wave forcing has little effect on the advection of water and sediments. Sediment resuspension is controlled by the bottom shear stress induced by tides and waves. The tide-induced bottom shear stress is higher in the north of Laizhou Bay and south of Bohai Bay due to the stronger bottom tidal current. The wave-induced bottom shear stress plays a more important role in sediment resuspension, which is higher in the nearshore region along the Yellow River Delta away from the coast to some extent on account of the maximum near-bottom wave orbital velocity. Tidal mixing strengthens the upward diffusion of the bottom suspended sediments. Without tidal forcing, there is an interesting phenomenon along the Yellow River Delta. In the nearshore region, the decreased bottom shear stress suspends less sediment above the bed. However, in the offshore region, the enhanced stratification hinders the upward diffusion of the bottom sediment due to the lack of tidal mixing, resulting in higher suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the bottom layer.

This paper used dynamic image analysis (DIA) to analyze the grain size and shape data of beach surface sediments in Bao’ding Bay, eastern Hainan Island, China, and explored the effects of sediment transport modes and beach morphology on the grain size–shape trend curves. This paper adopted a method of combining grain size cumulative frequency curves and grain size–shape trend curves to identify three sediment transport modes: suspension, saltation, and traction, and analyzed the characteristics of the grain size–shape trend curves under different beach morphologies (reflective, intermediate, and dissipative). This paper found that the grain size–shape trend curves can effectively indicate the sediment transport modes and improve the accuracy of subpopulation division; the grain size–shape trend curves showed different distribution characteristics in the cross-shore and longshore directions, which are closely related to the beach’s morphology and sediment transport direction. This paper provides a new method and idea for studying beach sediment transport and sedimentary environment using sediment grain size and shape data.

Particle morphology is an important feature of sediments that reflects their transport history and depositional environment. In this study, we used dynamic image analysis (DIA) to measure the size and shape of beach sediments on the east and west coasts of Hainan Island in South China Sea. DIA is a fast and accurate method that can capture and analyze a large number of sediment particles in real-time. We extracted morphological descriptors of each particle, such as equivalent diameter, sphericity, aspect ratio and symmetry, and their distributions based on volume and number. We performed multivariate analysis on the particle morphological data, including alpha diversity, statistical analysis and fingerprint techniques. We found that the Shannon index, calculated by the number distribution of sediment particle morphology, can effectively discriminate between the two sites, reflecting different sediment sources, transport processes and depositional conditions. We also established a composite fingerprint based on seven morphological parameters and diversity indices, which can accurately distinguish between aeolian and hydraulic sedimentary environments. Our study demonstrates the potential application of DIA in identifying sedimentary environments and establishing sediment fingerprints. This can help us understand the sediment transport processes and depositional mechanisms in coastal areas.

The geomorphological stability and ecological environment of megadeltas worldwide are of vital importance for their sustainable development. Deltaic hydro-morphodynamics is extremely sensitive to high riverine flow due to reduced sediment supply. However, the morphological evolution and response of deltas under high riverine flow have remained inadequately quantified. As one of the typical megadeltas, the Yellow River Delta (YRD), is becoming increasingly sensitive to environmental changes and intensified human interventions. In this study, a numerical model and field data were used to investigate the hydrodynamic changes and morphodynamic evolution induced by extreme river discharge in the YRD. The numerical experiments with different runoff scenarios reveal that high-energy riverine floods can cause significant hydrodynamic changes in bed shear stresses, water levels, and flow velocities, particularly in the abandoned river mouth. Moreover, it enhances the ebb-dominated tidal asymmetry, which considerably intensifies fluvial sediment resuspension and transport processes. The results also show high-energy riverine floods in the flood seasons trigger severe erosion in the Yellow River submerged delta, with a net erosion volume reaching −0.07 × 108 m3/year. The hydrodynamic increment in the abandoned river mouth is more significant, and therefore, severe erosion occurs, with the maximum erosion thickness reaching 7 m. These findings highlight the role of high riverine floods on the hydro-sediment dynamics of large river deltas under a sediment starvation condition.

Storm surges can lead to serious natural hazards and pose great threats to coastal areas, especially developed deltas. Assessing the risk of storm surges on coastal infrastructures is crucial for regional economic development and disaster mitigation. Combining in situ observations, remote sensing retrievals, and numerical simulation, storm surge floods in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) were calculated in different scenarios. The results showed that NE wind can cause the largest flooding area of 630 km2, although the overall storm surge risk in the delta is at lower levels under various conditions. The coastal oilfields are principally at an increasing storm surge risk level. E and NE winds would result in storm surges of 0.9–1.4 m, increasing the risk of flooding in the coastal oilfields. Nearshore seabed erosion in storm events resulted in a decrease in inundation depths and inundation areas. To prevent and control storm surge disasters, we should adapt to local conditions. Different measures should be taken to prevent the disaster of storm surges on different seashores, such as planting saltmarsh vegetation to protect seawalls, while the key point is to construct and maintain seawalls on high-risk shorelines.

The mud areas of East Asian marginal seas record considerable information about regional environmental evolution. However, debate continues regarding the relative importance of the major factors in regional sedimentary dynamics, i.e., the East Asian summer monsoon, East Asian winter monsoon, and oceanic circulation. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of grain size from a gravity core obtained in the South Yellow Sea to reveal changes in sedimentary dynamics since 6,000 years BP, and to elucidate the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the East Asian winter monsoon. We found that the mean grain size was in the range of 6.9–7.8 Φ, the sediment was poorly sorted within a small range (1.2, 1.5), and the M values from 4.7 to 6.7 μm and most of the C values from 24 to 65 μm suggested pelagic suspension transport. Results indicated that the intensity of both the East Asian summer monsoon and the East Asian winter monsoon showed a fluctuating trend of decrease after approximately 6,000 years BP, and that the relationship between them was generally anticorrelated. Based on these results, we suggest that positive correlation between the East Asian summer monsoon and the East Asian winter monsoon usually results in the fall or establishment of ancient dynasties in the Central Plains of China and that negative correlation between them is controlled by strong solar radiation. Weakening of solar radiation diminishes its control of the intensity of (and thus the correlation between) the East Asian summer monsoon and the East Asian winter monsoon, at which time the North Atlantic Oscillation plays a modulating role.

The spatiotemporal changes of inundation frequency in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) have profound influences on sustainable ecological protection and are also closely relevant to economic development scarcity on the coast of China. However, long-term changes of inundation frequency have remained poorly characterized. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, this study processed Landsat images to explore inundation frequency changes from 1990 to 2020 in the YRD. The results indicated that (1) The existing water index combining the classification results based on the MLM (Maximum Likelihood Method) is suitable for the mapping of the long-term water bodies, especially in the coastal regions; (2) The inundation frequency showed a clearly uneven temporal–spatial distribution. The low inundation area (LIA) is mainly intertidal natural wetlands with a declining trend, while the high inundation area (HIA) is dominated by constructed wetlands with a rising trend; (3) The use frequency of artificial ponds determines the inundation frequency of the constructed wetland. The industry development has gradually matured, causing the inundation frequency from dispersion to concentration in the constructed wetland; and (4) In the natural wetland, the LIA have increased since 2010 and have accounted for 30% in 2020. The large-scale appearance of LIA occurs with the emergence of high vegetation abundance. Spartina alterniflora salt marshes with strong reproductive ability and high abundance lead to the difficulty of wetland flooding and reduce the inundation frequency.

Morphodynamic variabilities of tidal flats (e.g., the variations of pattern, area, and topography) are a key issue in the management of coastal intertidal zones. In this study, the morphodynamic variabilities of the Lin-gang (Shanghai) tidal flat were investigated using waterlines extracted from multi-source satellite images acquired from 2013 to 2020. The waterlines were evaluated against in situ measurements. The results of our investigation indicated that the tidal flat was in a state of rapid accretion from 2015 to 2018, and in a state of erosion from 2018 to 2020. We found that the accretion of the tidal flat was most likely due to the protection of local vegetation, which prevents the sea bottom from eroding. However, storms have primarily been causing erosion since 2018. The potential mechanisms of the geomorphological variations were further analyzed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The analysis revealed that the variation in the tidal flat was dominated by two modes. The first mode accounted for 55% of the variation, while the second mode accounted for 18%. The spatial distribution of the first mode was highly related to the artificial vegetation, indicating that the local variations in the vegetation prevented the sea bottom from eroding, which was dominant in the accretional phase from 2015 to 2018. The second model reflected the extreme meteorological events that resulted in potential changes in the tidal flat’s pattern (i.e., transitioning to an erosion phase from 2018 to 2020). The satellite-derived topographies were demonstrated to be an effective means of mapping the evolution of a meso-tidal flat.

River dynamics and sediment budget play a crucial role in shaping geomorphic variability of river channels and deltaic environments. Basin-scale human activities, including dam construction, induce alterations in river flow and sediment dynamics in the downstream channels and to the delta, and quantification of sediment source shift along downstream fluvial-deltaic systems is often uncertain. This study analyzed the river regime changes and sediment dynamics of a typical sediment-laden fluvial-deltaic system—the lower Yellow River (LYR) and the Yellow River Delta (YRD) —to assess the integrated effects of dam impoundment and dam-based river regulation schemes on downstream hydrogeomorphic transition processes. The Xiaolangdi (XLD) Reservoir, which was completed in 2000 with a total storage of 12.7 km3, is the final reservoir located in the middle Yellow River and plays an important role in flood control and energy supply. Following the full operation of XLD Reservoir, the relationship between water and sediment in the LYR became more balanced, with a drastic decline of sediment input and seasonal migrations of floodwaters. The interannual variability of water levels at downstream hydrological stations indicated a geomorphic transition in the LYR from net deposition to erosion state. The building of the XLD Reservoir caused a downstream shift of river-originated sediment source and 48% of the total sediment delivered to the YRD was derived from the LYR. However, the reduced sediment delivery since 2000 has still triggered net land loss regarding the YRD system, with a strong spatial variability which is dominated by the reduced accretion at the active delta front and erosion at the abandoned river mouth and coastal engineering zone. Compared with other environmental factors, the construction of upstream dams contributed the most to the decline of downstream sediment delivery over the past decades. The challenge for sustainable sediment management is the gradual decline of scouring efficiency as the riverbed sediment is coarsening. Our study suggests that future river regulation strategies should consider the geomorphic sustainability of both the LYR and the YRD system.

Abstract Extreme storm events and their consequent shoreline changes are of great importance for understanding coastal evolution and assessing storm hazards. This work investigates the fractal properties of the spatial distributions of shoreline changes caused by storms. Wavelet analysis and upper-truncated power law (UTPL) fitting are used to study the power spectra of shoreline changes and to evaluate the upper limits of the cross-shore erosion and accretion. During a period affected by storms, the alongshore shoreline change patterns are strong on the 15 km scale but are weak with lower spectral power on the 20 km scale. The areas adjacent to the eroded shoreline are usually accrete, and the cross-shore extent of erosion is larger than that of accretion when the coast is affected by storms. The fractal properties of shoreline changes due to storms are found to be temporally continuous: the effects of later storms build on the preceding shoreline conditions, including both the effects of previous storms and the subsequent shoreline recoveries. This work provides a new perspective on the various scales of the spatial variations of the morphodynamics of storm-affected shorelines.

Human society and ecosystems worldwide are increasinAagly threatened by water shortages. Despite numerous studies of climatic impacts on water availability, little is known about the influences of socioeconomic development on streamflow and water sustainability. Here, we show that the streamflow from the Yellow River to the sea has decreased by more than 80% in total over the last 60 years due to increased water consumption by agricultural, industrial and urban developments (76% of the streamflow decrease, similarly hereinafter), decreased precipitation (13%), reservoir construction (6%) and revegetation (5%). We predict that if the past trends in streamflow will continue, year-round dry-up in the lower Yellow River will commence in the late 2020s or early 2030s, unless effective countermeasures such as water diversion from the Yangtze River are taken. These results suggest that streamflow in semiarid basins is highly vulnerable to human impacts and that streamflow decline would in turn hinder further socioeconomic development and endanger river-sea ecosystems.