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Accurate measurement of daily infection incidence is crucial to epidemic response. However, delays in symptom onset, testing, and reporting obscure the dynamics of transmission, necessitating methods to remove the effects of stochastic delays from observed data. Existing estimators can be sensitive to model misspecification and censored observations; many analysts have instead used methods that exhibit strong bias or do not account for delays. We develop an estimator with a regularization scheme to cope with these sources of noise, which we term the Robust Incidence Deconvolution Estimator (RIDE). We validate RIDE on synthetic data, comparing accuracy and stability to existing approaches. We then use RIDE to study COVID-19 records in the United States, and find evidence that infection estimates from reported cases can be more informative than estimates from mortality data. To implement these methods, we releaseincidental, a ready-to-useRimplementation of our estimator that can aid ongoing efforts to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic.

In order to prepare for and control the continued spread of the COVID-19 pandemic while minimizing its economic impact, the world needs to be able to estimate and predict COVID-19’s spread. Unfortunately, we cannot directly observe the prevalence or growth rate of COVID-19; these must be inferred using some kind of model. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian extension to the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartmental model that adds compartments to account for isolation and death and allows the infection rate to vary as a function of both mobility data collected from mobile phones and a latent time-varying factor that accounts for changes in behavior not captured by mobility data. Since confirmed-case data is unreliable, we infer the model’s parameters conditioned on deaths data. We replace the exponential-waiting-time assumption of classic compartmental models with Erlang distributions, which allows for a more realistic model of the long lag between exposure and death. The mobility data gives us a leading indicator that can quickly detect changes in the pandemic’s local growth rate and forecast changes in death rates weeks ahead of time. This is an analysis of observational data, so any causal interpretations of the model’s inferences should be treated as suggestive at best; nonetheless, the model’s inferred relationship between different kinds of trips and the infection rate do suggest some possible hypotheses about what kinds of activities might contribute most to COVID-19’s spread.

We explore content-based representation learning strategies tailored for large-scale, uncurated music collections that afford only weak supervision through unstructured natural language metadata and colisten statistics. At the core is a hybrid training scheme that uses classification and metric learning losses to incorporate both metadata-derived text labels and aggregate co-listen supervisory signals into a single convolutional model. The resulting joint text and audio content embedding defines a similarity metric and supports prediction of semantic text labels using a vocabulary of unprecedented granularity, which we refine using a novel word-sense disambiguation procedure. As input to simple classifier architectures, our representation achieves state-of-the-art performance on two music tagging benchmarks.

Humans do not acquire perceptual abilities in the way we train machines. While machine learning algorithms typically operate on large collections of randomly-chosen, explicitly-labeled examples, human acquisition relies more heavily on multimodal unsupervised learning (as infants) and active learning (as children). With this motivation, we present a learning framework for sound representation and recognition that combines (i) a self-supervised objective based on a general notion of unimodal and cross-modal coincidence, (ii) a clustering objective that reflects our need to impose categorical structure on our experiences, and (iii) a cluster-based active learning procedure that solicits targeted weak supervision to consolidate categories into relevant semantic classes. By training a combined sound embedding/clustering/classification network according to these criteria, we achieve a new state-of-the-art unsupervised audio representation and demonstrate up to a 20-fold reduction in the number of labels required to reach a desired classification performance., Comment: This extended version of a ICASSP 2020 submission under same title has an added figure and additional discussion for easier consumption

In this paper, we present a novel system that separates the voice of a target speaker from multi-speaker signals, by making use of a reference signal from the target speaker. We achieve this by training two separate neural networks: (1) A speaker recognition network that produces speaker-discriminative embeddings; (2) A spectrogram masking network that takes both noisy spectrogram and speaker embedding as input, and produces a mask. Our system significantly reduces the speech recognition WER on multi-speaker signals, with minimal WER degradation on single-speaker signals., To appear in Interspeech 2019

Inspired by recent work on neural network image generation which rely on backpropagation towards the network inputs, we present a proof-of-concept system for speech texture synthesis and voice conversion based on two mechanisms: approximate inversion of the representation learned by a speech recognition neural network, and on matching statistics of neuron activations between different source and target utterances. Similar to image texture synthesis and neural style transfer, the system works by optimizing a cost function with respect to the input waveform samples. To this end we use a differentiable mel-filterbank feature extraction pipeline and train a convolutional CTC speech recognition network. Our system is able to extract speaker characteristics from very limited amounts of target speaker data, as little as a few seconds, and can be used to generate realistic speech babble or reconstruct an utterance in a different voice., Accepted to ICASSP 2018

Even in the absence of any explicit semantic annotation, vast collections of audio recordings provide valuable information for learning the categorical structure of sounds. We consider several class-agnostic semantic constraints that apply to unlabeled nonspeech audio: (i) noise and translations in time do not change the underlying sound category, (ii) a mixture of two sound events inherits the categories of the constituents, and (iii) the categories of events in close temporal proximity are likely to be the same or related. Without labels to ground them, these constraints are incompatible with classification loss functions. However, they may still be leveraged to identify geometric inequalities needed for triplet loss-based training of convolutional neural networks. The result is low-dimensional embeddings of the input spectrograms that recover 41% and 84% of the performance of their fully-supervised counterparts when applied to downstream query-by-example sound retrieval and sound event classification tasks, respectively. Moreover, in limited-supervision settings, our unsupervised embeddings double the state-of-the-art classification performance., Submitted to ICASSP 2018

We explore a variety of neural networks configurations for one- and two-channel spectrogram-mask-based speech enhancement. Our best model improves on previous state-of-the-art performance on the CHiME2 speech enhancement task by 0.4 decibels in signal-to-distortion ratio (SDR). We examine trade-offs such as non-causal look-ahead, computation, and parameter count versus enhancement performance and find that zero-look-ahead models can achieve, on average, within 0.03 dB SDR of our best bidirectional model. Further, we find that 200 milliseconds of look-ahead is sufficient to achieve equivalent performance to our best bidirectional model.

In recent years, deep networks have led to dramatic improvements in speech enhancement by framing it as a data-driven pattern recognition problem. In many modern enhancement systems, large amounts of data are used to train a deep network to estimate masks for complex-valued short-time Fourier transforms (STFTs) to suppress noise and preserve speech. However, current masking approaches often neglect two important constraints: STFT consistency and mixture consistency. Without STFT consistency, the system's output is not necessarily the STFT of a time-domain signal, and without mixture consistency, the sum of the estimated sources does not necessarily equal the input mixture. Furthermore, the only previous approaches that apply mixture consistency use real-valued masks; mixture consistency has been ignored for complex-valued masks. In this paper, we show that STFT consistency and mixture consistency can be jointly imposed by adding simple differentiable projection layers to the enhancement network. These layers are compatible with real or complex-valued masks. Using both of these constraints with complex-valued masks provides a 0.7 dB increase in scale-invariant signal-to-distortion ratio (SI-SDR) on a large dataset of speech corrupted by a wide variety of nonstationary noise across a range of input SNRs.

This paper describes Tacotron 2, a neural network architecture for speech synthesis directly from text. The system is composed of a recurrent sequence-to-sequence feature prediction network that maps character embeddings to mel-scale spectrograms, followed by a modified WaveNet model acting as a vocoder to synthesize timedomain waveforms from those spectrograms. Our model achieves a mean opinion score (MOS) of $4.53$ comparable to a MOS of $4.58$ for professionally recorded speech. To validate our design choices, we present ablation studies of key components of our system and evaluate the impact of using mel spectrograms as the input to WaveNet instead of linguistic, duration, and $F_0$ features. We further demonstrate that using a compact acoustic intermediate representation enables significant simplification of the WaveNet architecture., Accepted to ICASSP 2018

A text-to-speech synthesis system typically consists of multiple stages, such as a text analysis frontend, an acoustic model and an audio synthesis module. Building these components often requires extensive domain expertise and may contain brittle design choices. In this paper, we present Tacotron, an end-to-end generative text-to-speech model that synthesizes speech directly from characters. Given pairs, the model can be trained completely from scratch with random initialization. We present several key techniques to make the sequence-to-sequence framework perform well for this challenging task. Tacotron achieves a 3.82 subjective 5-scale mean opinion score on US English, outperforming a production parametric system in terms of naturalness. In addition, since Tacotron generates speech at the frame level, it's substantially faster than sample-level autoregressive methods., Comment: Submitted to Interspeech 2017. v2 changed paper title to be consistent with our conference submission (no content change other than typo fixes)

Robust and far-field speech recognition is critical to enable true hands-free communication. In far-field conditions, signals are attenuated due to distance. To improve robustness to loudness variation, we introduce a novel frontend called per-channel energy normalization (PCEN). The key ingredient of PCEN is the use of an automatic gain control based dynamic compression to replace the widely used static (such as log or root) compression. We evaluate PCEN on the keyword spotting task. On our large rerecorded noisy and far-field eval sets, we show that PCEN significantly improves recognition performance. Furthermore, we model PCEN as neural network layers and optimize high-dimensional PCEN parameters jointly with the keyword spotting acoustic model. The trained PCEN frontend demonstrates significant further improvements without increasing model complexity or inference-time cost.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have proven very effective in image classification and show promise for audio. We use various CNN architectures to classify the soundtracks of a dataset of 70M training videos (5.24 million hours) with 30,871 video-level labels. We examine fully connected Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), AlexNet [1], VGG [2], Inception [3], and ResNet [4]. We investigate varying the size of both training set and label vocabulary, finding that analogs of the CNNs used in image classification do well on our audio classification task, and larger training and label sets help up to a point. A model using embeddings from these classifiers does much better than raw features on the Audio Set [5] Acoustic Event Detection (AED) classification task., Comment: Accepted for publication at ICASSP 2017 Changes: Added definitions of mAP, AUC, and d-prime. Updated mAP/AUC/d-prime numbers for Audio Set based on changes of latest Audio Set revision. Changed wording to fit 4 page limit with new additions