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AimTo provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes.InnovationProbabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjunction with the associated species list, which explicitly recognize the indeterminate nature of species pool membership for a given focal unit of interest and better capture real-world complexity. Probabilistic species pools provide a quantitative assessment of how dispersal, environmental or biotic factors influence estimates of species pool composition and size for a given temporal extent.ConclusionsBased on one simulated and two empirical examples we demonstrate that probabilistic species pools allow us to disentangle the geographical variation in dispersal, environmental and biotic assembly processes for species assemblages in focal units. We also show that probabilistic species pools are fully compatible with traditional definitions of species pools and are applicable over a wide range of spatial and temporal extents. Additionally they are robust to missing data and provide a quantified and transparent approach to estimating the size and composition of species pools in a mechanistic way, providing a valuable tool for studies from community ecology to macroecology.

Several multi-year biodiversity experiments have shown positive species richness–productivity relationships which strengthen over time, but the mechanisms which control productivity are not well understood. We used experimental grasslands (Jena Experiment) with mixtures containing different numbers of species (4, 8, 16 and 60) and plant functional groups (1–4; grasses, legumes, small herbs, tall herbs) to explore patterns of variation in functional trait composition as well as climatic variables as predictors for community biomass production across several years (from 2003 to 2009). Over this time span, high community mean trait values shifted from the dominance of trait values associated with fast growth to trait values suggesting a conservation of growth-related resources and successful reproduction. Increasing between-community convergence in means of several productivity-related traits indicated that environmental filtering and exclusion of competitively weaker species played a role during community assembly. A general trend for increasing functional trait diversity within and convergence among communities suggested niche differentiation through limiting similarity in the longer term and that similar mechanisms operated in communities sown with different diversity. Community biomass production was primarily explained by a few key mean traits (tall growth, large seed mass and leaf nitrogen concentration) and to a smaller extent by functional diversity in nitrogen acquisition strategies, functional richness in multiple traits and functional evenness in light-acquisition traits. Increasing species richness, presence of an exceptionally productive legume species (Onobrychis viciifolia) and climatic variables explained an additional proportion of variation in community biomass. In general, community biomass production decreased through time, but communities with higher functional richness in multiple traits had high productivities over several years. Our results sugg

We used 474 European plant species to analyse the impacts of climate and land-use change on the composition of habitat-specific species pools in Germany. We quantified changes in the probability of occurrence of species in a grid cell using an ensemble of three statistical modelling techniques, namely generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forests (RFs), under three scenarios (average change +2.2, +2.9, and +3.8 °C up to 2080). We evaluated the impact on single species occurrence and resulting species pools considering their affiliation to ten major terrestrial habitat types in both current (1961–90) and future projections (2051–80). Current habitat-specific species pools declined in size across all scenarios, e.g. by 24 ± 13% (mean ± s.d.) under the most severe scenario. We show that species responses may strongly vary among scenarios and different habitats with a minimum average projected range loss of 14% (±18%; species typical to urban habitats under moderate climate change assumptions, average temperature increase +2.2 °C) to a maximum average projected range loss of 56% (±29%; species assemblages from mountain communities below the alpine zone at +3.8 °C). A separate analysis of species composition in habitat-specific species pools revealed a significant interaction between the scenario and the major habitat classes. We found a higher risk for habitat types with high conservation value characterised by a significant association between number of nationally endangered species and projected range loss in major habitats. Thus, habitat-specific management and application of measures favouring dispersal are required for mitigation of climate change impacts. Wir nutzten 474 Europäische Pflanzenarten, um Änderungen in der Zusammensetzung von Biotop-spezifischen Artengemeinschaften unter Klima- und Landnutzungswandel in Deutschland zu erfassen. M

Predictive species distribution models are standard tools in ecological research and are used to address a variety of applied and conservation related issues. When making temporal or spatial predictions, uncertainty is inevitable and prediction errors may depend not only on data quality and the modelling algorithm used, but on species characteristics. Here, we applied a standard distribution modelling technique (generalized linear models) using European plant species distribution data and climatic parameters. Predictive performance was calculated using AUC, (Cohen's) Kappa and true skill statistic (TSS), that were subsequently correlated with biological and life-history traits. After accounting for phylogenetic dependence among species, model performance was poorest for species having a short life span and occurring in human disturbed habitats. Our results clearly indicate that the performance of distribution models can be dependent on functional traits and provide further evidence that a species' ecology is likely to affect the ability of models to predict its distribution. Biased and less reliable predictions could misguide policy decisions and the management and conservation of our natural heritage.

The application of niche-based modelling techniques to plant species has not been explored for the majority of taxa in Europe, primarily due to the lack of adequate distributional data. However, it is of crucial importance for conservation adaptation decisions to assess and quantify the likely pool of species capable of colonising a particular region under altered future climate conditions. We here present a novel method that combines the species pool concept and information about shifts in analogous multidimensional climate space. This allows us to identify regions in Europe with a current climate which is similar to that projected for future time periods in Germany. We compared the extent and spatial location of climatically analogous European regions for three projected greenhouse gas emission scenarios in Germany for the time period 2071-2080 (+2.4°C, +3.3°C, +4.5°C average increase in mean annual temperature) to those of the recent past in Europe (1961-90). Across all three scenarios, European land areas which are characterised by climatic conditions analogue to those found in Germany decreased from 14% in 1961-1990 to ca. 10% in 2071-2080. All scenarios show disappearing current climate types in Germany, which can mainly be explained with a general northwards shift of climatically analogous regions. We estimated the size of the potential species pool of these analogous regions using floristic inventory data for the Iberian Peninsula as 2,354 plant species. The identified species pool in Germany indicates a change towards warmth and drought adapted southern species. About one-third of the species from the Iberian analogous regions are currently already present in Germany. Depending on the scenario used, 1,372 (+2.4°C average change of mean annual temperature), 1,399 (+3.3°C) and 1,444 (+4.5°C) species currently not found in Germany, occur in Iberian regions which are climatically analogous to German 2071-80 climate types. We believe that our study presents a us

The use of local provenances in restoration, agriculture and forestry has been identified as measure to sustain biological diversity and to improve local productivity. However, the delineation of regional provenances is challenging because it requires the identification of well-defined groups based on spatiogenetic differentiation and/or the evidence of local adaptation. In this study, we investigate genetic variation at 186 AFLP loci in 46 European accessions of the important grassland species Arrhenatherum elatius and ask (1) whether genetic variation within accessions differs between European geographical regions; (2) at which spatial scale populations are structured across Europe and (3) whether putatively adaptive markers contribute to this pattern and whether these markers can be related to climatic site conditions. Basic expectations of population genetics are likely to be altered in autotetraploid species, thus, we adopted a band-based approach to estimate genetic diversity and structuring. Compared to other grasses A. elatius showed high genetic diversity and considerable differentiation among accessions (FST = 0.24). Accessions separated in a Western European and a Central/Eastern European group, without further structure within groups. A genome scan approach identified four potentially adaptive loci, whose band frequencies correlated significantly with climatic parameters, suggesting that genetic differentiation in A. elatius is also the result of adaptive processes. Knowledge on adaptive loci might in the long run also help to adapt ecosystems to adverse climate change effects through assisted migration of ecotypes rather than introduction of new species.

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We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

Bei der Analyse klimainduzierter Veränderungen der Natur spielen räumlich homogene und zeitlich lange Datenreihen, d. h. die Güte von Datengrundlagen, eine wichtige Rolle. Im Rahmen von Untersuchungen zur Modellierung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Flora und Vegetation haben wir Klimainformationen für 2 995 Messtischblätter der Verbreitungskarten der deutschen Flora (www.floraweb.de) und 4 352 Schutzgebiete in Deutschland berechnet. Der Datensatz umfasst Tageswerte von elf Klimaelementen sowie davon abgeleiteten bioklimatischen Größen (1) für den Zeitraum von 1951 bis 2003 und (2) für Szenarien der klimatischen Entwicklung mit 1 °C Erwärmung im Simulationszeitraum 2004 bis 2055. In der zweiten Hälfte des 20. Jahrhunderts nahmen die Anzahl der Frosttage statistisch signifikant ab und die Anzahl von zusammenhängenden Jahren, in denen -10 °C nicht unterschritten werden, zu. Die Klimaszenarien lassen auf eine Fortsetzung dieser Tendenzen schließen. Die Trends inFrostereignissen und -intensitäten lassen eine Abnahme in der Kältelimitierung von kältesensitiven Organismen und eine damit einhergehende Verschiebung der Konkurrenz zwischen Arten erwarten.

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