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Both the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are critical factors contributing to Antarctic sea ice variability on interannual time scales. However, their joint effects on sea ice are complex and remain unclear for each austral season. In this study, satellite sea ice concentration (SIC) observations and atmospheric reanalysis data are utilized to assess the impacts of combined SAM and ENSO on seasonal Antarctic sea ice changes. The joint SAM–ENSO impacts on southern high latitudes are principally controlled by the strength and position of the wave activity and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies affected by their interactions. In-phase events (La Niña/positive SAM and El Niño/negative SAM) are characterized with an SIC dipole located in the Weddell/Bellingshausen Seas and Amundsen/Ross Seas, while out-of-phase events (El Niño/positive SAM and La Niña/negative SAM) experience significant SIC anomalies in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. Sea ice budget analyses are conducted to separate the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions inducing the sea ice intensification anomalies. The results show that in-phase intensification anomalies also display a pattern similar to the SIC dipole and are mainly driven by the direct thermodynamic forcing at the ice edge and thermodynamic responses to meridional sea ice drift in the inner pack, especially in autumn and winter. Dynamic processes caused by zonal sea ice drift also play an important role during out-of-phase conditions in addition to the same mechanisms during in-phase conditions.

Sea level rise contributions from the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) are strongly modulated by the backstress that its floating extension – Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS) – exerts on the adjoining grounded ice. The front of PIIS has recently retreated significantly via calving, and satellite and theoretical analyses have suggested further retreat is inevitable. As well as inducing an instantaneous increase in ice flow, retreat of the PIIS front may result in increased ocean melting, by relaxing the topographic barrier to warm ocean water that is currently provided by a prominent seabed ridge. Recently published research (Bradley and others, 2022a) has shown that PIIS may exhibit a strong melting response to calving, with melting close to the PIG grounding line always increasing with ice front retreat. Here, we summarise this research and, additionally, place the results in a glaciological context by comparing the impact of melt-induced and ice-dynamical changes in the ice shelf thinning rate. We find that while PIG is expected to experience rapid acceleration in response to further ice front retreat, the mean instantaneous thinning response is set primarily by changes in melting, rather than ice dynamics. Overall, further ice front retreat is expected to lead to enhanced ice-shelf thinning, with potentially detrimental consequences for ice shelf stability.

The ice shelf–ocean boundary current has an important control on heat delivery to the base of an ice shelf. Climate and regional models that include a representation of ice shelf cavities often use a coarse grid, and results have a strong dependence on resolution near the ice shelf–ocean interface. This study models the ice shelf–ocean boundary current with a nonhydrostatic z-level configuration at turbulence-permitting resolution (1 m). The z-level model performs well when compared against state-of-the-art large-eddy simulations, showing its capability in representing the correct physics. We show that theoretical results from a one-dimensional model with parameterized turbulence reproduce the z-level model results to a good degree, indicating possible utility as a turbulence closure. The one-dimensional model evolves to a state of marginal instability, and we use the z-level model to demonstrate how this is represented in three dimensions. Instabilities emerge that regulate the strength of the pycnocline and coexist with persistent Ekman rolls, which are identified prior to the flow becoming intermittently unstable. When resolution of the z-level model is degraded to understand the gridscale dependencies, the degradation is dominated by the established problem of excessive numerical diffusion. We show that at intermediate resolutions (2–4 m), the boundary layer structure can be partially recovered by tuning diffusivities. Last, we compare replacing prescribed melting with interactive melting that is dependent on the local ocean conditions. Interactive melting results in a feedback such that the system evolves more slowly, which is exaggerated at lower resolution.

Ice streams such as Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers which terminate at their ice shelves in the eastern Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are losing mass faster than most others about the continent. The mass loss is due to basal melting, which is influenced by a deep current that transports warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) from the continental shelf break toward the ice shelves. This current and associated heat transport are controlled by factors such as bottom bathymetry, near-surface winds and meltwater. Using a realistic regional model as a reference, in this study we use idealized models to examine the role of bathymetric features in determining the shelf-wide circulation and in enabling heat transport from the deep ocean onto the continental shelf. We find that a ridge that blocks deep westward inflow from the Bellingshausen Sea enables a deep cyclonic circulation on the shelf with an eastward undercurrent immediately south of the shelf break. Inclusion of the ridge enhances heat transport onto the continental shelf; without the ridge the flow features an along-shelf break westward current that suppresses cross-shelf break fluxes. We also consider the effects of shifting the prescribed wind forcing profile to the south—a simplified representation of future potential changes to the winds—and we find that the continental shelf is warmer in this scenario. These fundamental investigations will help refine the aims of future fieldwork and modeling.

Over the past decade, Antarctic sea ice extent exhibited a sequence of record maxima, followed by a rapid decline in 2015/16, and record minima since. In this presentation, we show that this sudden and remarkable ice loss marks an abrupt transition from a high to a low ice state that cannot be explained by year-to-year variability. Instead, it is most likely associated with a longer term variability arising from ice–ocean feedbacks. The abrupt transition was preceded by a multi-decadal increase in persistence and variance of the sea ice anomalies, an increasing upper Southern Ocean density stratification, and an accumulation of heat at the subsurface; suggesting a decoupling of the surface from the subsurface ocean. During this period, the sea ice anomalies shifted from being structured predominantly regionally and seasonally to a largely circumpolar and interannual regime. In 2015/16, the upper ocean density stratification in the ice-covered region suddenly weakened, leading to a release of heat from the subsurface, contributing to the sea ice decline during winter. Our analysis suggests that the sudden sea ice loss in 2015/16, and the persisting low ice conditions since, arose from a systematic change in the physical state of the coupled circumpolar ice–ocean system. This change will have wide implications for global climate, ecosystems, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Numerical studies of ice flow have consistently identified the grounding zone of outlet glaciers and ice streams (the region where ice starts to float) as crucial for predicting the rate of grounded ice loss to the ocean. Owing to the extreme environments and difficulty of access to ocean cavities beneath ice shelves, field observations are rare. Estimates of melt rates derived from satellites are also difficult to make near grounding zones with confidence. Therefore, numerical ocean models are important tools to investigate these critical and remote regions. The relative inflexibility of structured grid models means, however, that they can struggle to resolve these processes in irregular cavity geometries near grounding zones. To help solve this issue, we present a new nonhydrostatic unstructured mesh model for flow under ice shelves built using the Firedrake finite element framework. We demonstrate our ability to simulate full ice shelf cavity domains using the community standard ISOMIP+ Ocean0 test case and compare our results against those obtained with the popular MITgcm model. Good agreement is found between the two models, despite their use of different discretisation schemes and the sensitivity of the melt rate parameterisation to grid resolution. Verification tests based on the Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS) show that the new model discretisation is sound and second-order accurate. A main driver behind using Firedrake is the availability of an automatically generated adjoint model. Our first adjoint calculations, of sensitivities of melt rate with respect to different inputs in an idealised grounding zone domain, are promising and point to the ability to address a number of important questions on ocean influence on ice shelf vulnerability in the future.

Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica are rapidly retreating and contributing to sea level rise. Ice loss is occurring primarily via exposure to warm ocean water, which varies in response to local wind variability. There is evidence that retreat was initiated in the mid-20th century, but the perturbation that may have triggered retreat remains unknown. A leading hypothesis is that large pressure and wind anomalies in the 1940s drove exceptionally strong oceanic ice-shelf melting. However, the characteristics, drivers, and rarity of the atmospheric event remain poorly constrained. We investigate the 1940s atmospheric event using paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations. The reconstructions show that large westerly wind anomalies occurred from ~1938–1942, a combined response to the very large El Niño event from 1940–1942 and other variability beginning years earlier. Climate model simulations provide evidence that events of similar magnitude and duration are unusual but may have occurred tens to hundreds of times throughout the Holocene. Our results suggest that the 1940s westerly event is unlikely to have been exceptional enough to be the sole explanation for the initiation of Amundsen Sea glacier retreat. Naturally arising variability in ocean conditions prior to the 1940s, or anthropogenically driven trends since the 1940s, may be needed to explain the onset of retreat in West Antarctica.

Warm ocean waters drive rapid ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean heat transport toward the ice shelves is associated with the Amundsen Undercurrent, a near-bottom current that flows eastward along the shelf break and transports warm waters onto the continental shelf via troughs. Here we use a regional ice-ocean model to show that, on decadal time scales, the undercurrent's variability is baroclinic (depth-dependent). Decadal ocean surface cooling in the tropical Pacific results in cyclonic wind anomalies over the Amundsen Sea. These wind anomalies drive a westward perturbation of the shelf-break surface flow and an eastward anomaly (strengthening) of the undercurrent, leading to increased ice-shelf melting. This contrasts with shorter time scales, for which surface current and undercurrent covary, a barotropic (depth-independent) behavior previously assumed to apply at all time scales. This suggests that interior ocean processes mediate the decadal ice-shelf response in the Amundsen Sea to climate forcing., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Ocean-driven ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a significant contributor to sea-level rise. Recent ocean variability in the Amundsen Sea is controlled by near-surface winds. We combine palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations to understand past and future influences on Amundsen Sea winds from anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability. The reconstructions show strong historical wind trends. External forcing from greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion drove zonally uniform westerly wind trends centred over the deep Southern Ocean. Internally generated trends resemble a South Pacific Rossby wave train and were highly influential over the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. There was strong interannual and interdecadal variability over the Amundsen Sea, with periods of anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 1940s and 1990s, when rapid ice-sheet loss was initiated. Similar anticyclonic anomalies probably occurred prior to the 20th century but without causing the present ice loss. This suggests that ice loss may have been triggered naturally in the 1940s but failed to recover subsequently due to the increasing importance of anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases (since the 1960s) and ozone depletion (since the 1980s). Future projections also feature strong wind trends. Emissions mitigation influences wind trends over the deep Southern Ocean but has less influence on winds over the Amundsen Sea shelf, where internal variability creates a large and irreducible uncertainty. This suggests that strong emissions mitigation is needed to minimise ice loss this century but that the uncontrollable future influence of internal climate variability could be equally important.

A major source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections is the ocean-driven basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves. Whereas ice sheet models require a kilometer-scale resolution to realistically resolve ice shelf stability and grounding line migration, global or regional 3D ocean models are computationally too expensive to produce basal melt forcing fields at this resolution. To bridge this resolution gap, we introduce the 2D numerical model LADDIE (one-Layer Antarctic model for Dynamical Downscaling of Ice–ocean Exchanges) which allows for the computationally efficient modeling of basal melt rates. The model is flexible, and can be forced with output from coarse 3D ocean models or with vertical profiles of offshore temperature and salinity. In this study, we describe the model equations and numerics. To illustrate and validate the model performance, we apply the model to two test cases: the small Crosson-Dotson Ice Shelf in the warm Amundsen Sea region, and the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the cold Weddell Sea. At ice-shelf wide scales, LADDIE reproduces observed patterns of basal melt and freezing that are also well reproduced by 3D ocean models. At scales of 0.5–5 km, which are unresolved by 3D ocean models and poorly constrained by observations, LADDIE produces plausible basal melt patterns. Most significantly, the simulated basal melt patterns are physically consistent with the applied ice shelf topography. These patterns are governed by the topographic steering and Coriolis deflection of meltwater flows, two processes that are poorly represented in basal melt parameterisations. The kilometer-scale melt patterns simulated by LADDIE include enhanced melt rates in basal channels, in some shear margins, and nearby grounding lines. As these regions are critical for ice shelf stability, we conclude that LADDIE can provide detailed basal melt patterns at the essential resolution that ice sheet models require. The physical consistency between the applied geometry and the simulated basal melt fields indicates that LADDIE can play a valuable role in the development of coupled ice–ocean modeling.

The satellite-observed sea ice thickness (SIT) records from 2003 to 2020 identify an extreme SIT loss during 2010–2011. Ice thickness budget analysis demonstrates that the thickness loss was associated with an extraordinarily large multiyear ice (MYI) volume export through the Fram Strait during the season of sea ice advance. High cloudiness led to positive anomalies of net longwave radiation, and positive net surface energy flux anomalies supported enhanced sea ice melt from June to August. Due to the MYI loss, the Arctic sea ice became more sensitive to subsequent atmospheric anomalies. The reduced surface albedo triggering a positive ice-albedo amplifying feedback and contributed to the accelerating loss of ice thickness. These tightly coupled events highlight that the increasingly younger and thinner Arctic sea ice is becoming more vulnerable to external forcing and created the precondition for the rapid reduction in sea ice extent in 2012.

Author(s): Li, X; Cai, W; Meehl, GA; Chen, D; Yuan, X; Raphael, M; Holland, DM; Ding, Q; Fogt, RL; Markle, BR; Wang, G; Bromwich, DH; Turner, J; Xie, SP; Steig, EJ; Gille, ST; Xiao, C; Wu, B; Lazzara, MA; Chen, X; Stammerjohn, S; Holland, PR; Holland, MM; Cheng, X; Price, SF; Wang, Z; Bitz, CM; Shi, J; Gerber, EP; Liang, X; Goosse, H; Yoo, C; Ding, M; Geng, L; Xin, M; Li, C; Dou, T; Liu, C; Sun, W; Wang, X; Song, C | Abstract: Over the modern satellite era, substantial climatic changes have been observed in the Antarctic, including atmospheric and oceanic warming, ice sheet thinning and a general Antarctic-wide expansion of sea ice, followed by a more recent rapid loss. Although these changes, featuring strong zonal asymmetry, are partially influenced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion, tropical–polar teleconnections are believed to have a role through Rossby wave dynamics. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of tropical teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere extratropics arising from the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, focusing on the mechanisms and long-term climatic impacts. These teleconnections have contributed to observed Antarctic and Southern Ocean changes, including regional rapid surface warming, pre-2015 sea ice expansion and its sudden reduction thereafter, changes in ocean heat content and accelerated thinning of most of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, due to limited observations and inherent model biases, uncertainties remain in understanding and assessing the importance of these teleconnections versus those arising from greenhouse gases, ozone recovery and internal variability. Sustained pan-Antarctic efforts towards long-term observations, and more realistic dynamics and parameterizations in high-resolution climate models, offer opportunities to reduce these uncertainties.

The transport of heat and salt through turbulent ice shelf–ocean boundary layers is a large source of uncertainty within ocean models of ice shelf cavities. This study uses small-scale, high-resolution, 3D numerical simulations to model an idealized boundary layer beneath a melting ice shelf to investigate the influence of ambient turbulence on double-diffusive convection (i.e., convection driven by the difference in diffusivities between salinity and temperature). Isotropic turbulence is forced throughout the simulations and the temperature and salinity are initialized with homogeneous values similar to observations. The initial temperature and the strength of forced turbulence are varied as controlling parameters within an oceanographically relevant parameter space. Two contrasting regimes are identified. In one regime double-diffusive convection dominates, and in the other convection is inhibited by the forced turbulence. The convective regime occurs for high temperatures and low turbulence levels, where it is long lived and affects the flow, melt rate, and melt pattern. A criterion for identifying convection in terms of the temperature and salinity profiles, and the turbulent dissipation rate, is proposed. This criterion may be applied to observations and theoretical models to quantify the effect of double-diffusive convection on ice shelf melt rates.

Rapid ice loss is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This ice loss is assumed to be a long-term response to oceanographic forcing, but ocean conditions in the Amundsen Sea are unknown prior to 1994. Here we present a modeling study of Amundsen Sea conditions from 1920 to 2013, using an ensemble of ice-ocean simulations forced by climate model experiments. We find that during the early twentieth century, the Amundsen Sea likely experienced more sustained cool periods than at present. Warm periods become more dominant over the simulations (mean trend 0.33°C/century) causing an increase in ice shelf melting. The warming is likely driven by an eastward wind trend over the continental shelf break that is partly anthropogenically forced. Our simulations suggest that the Amundsen Sea responded to historical greenhouse gas forcing, and that future changes in emissions are also likely to affect the region.

The melt rate of Antarctic ice shelves is of key importance for rising sea levels and future climate scenarios. Recent observations beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf revealed an ocean boundary layer that was highly turbulent and raised questions on the effect of these rich flow dynamics on the ocean heat transfer and the ice shelf melt rate. Directly motivated by the field observations, we have conducted large-eddy simulations (LES) to further examine the ocean boundary layer beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf. The LES was initialized with uniform temperature and salinity (T–S) and included a realistic tidal cycle and a small basal slope. A new parameterization based on previous work was applied at the top boundary to model near-wall turbulence and basal melting. The resulting vertical T–S profiles, melt rate, and friction velocity matched well with the Larsen C Ice Shelf observations. The instantaneous melt rate varied strongly with the tidal cycle, with faster flow increasing the turbulence and mixing of heat toward the ice base. An Ekman layer formed beneath the ice base and, due to the strong vertical shear of the current, Ekman rolls appeared in the mixed layer and stratified region (depth ≈ 20–60 m). In an additional high-resolution simulation (conducted with a smaller domain) the Ekman rolls were associated with increased turbulent kinetic energy, but a relatively small vertical heat flux. Our results will help with interpreting field observations and parameterizing the ocean-driven basal melting of ice shelves.

The physical interactions between ice sheets and the atmosphere and ocean around them are major factors in determining the state of the climate system, yet many current Earth System models omit them entirely or treat them very simply. In this work we describe how models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been incorporated into the global U.K. Earth System model (UKESM1) via substantial technical developments with a two‐way coupling that passes fluxes of energy and water, and the topography of the ice sheet surface and ice shelf base, between the component models. File‐based coupling outside the running model executables is used throughout to pass information between the components, which we show is both physically appropriate and convenient within the UKESM1 structure. Ice sheet surface mass balance is computed in the land surface model using multi‐layer snowpacks in subgrid‐scale elevation ranges and compares well to the results of regional climate models. Ice shelf front discharge forms icebergs, which drift and melt in the ocean. Ice shelf basal mass balance is simulated using the full three‐dimensional ocean model representation of the circulation in ice‐shelf cavities. We show a range of example results, including from simulations with changes in ice sheet height and thickness of hundreds of meters, and changes in ice sheet grounding line and land‐terminating margin of many tens of kilometres, demonstrating that the coupled model is computationally stable when subject to significant changes in ice sheet geometry.

Open-ocean polynyas in the Weddell Sea of Antarctica are the product of deep convection, which transports Warm Deep Water (WDW) to the surface and melts sea ice or prevents its formation. These polynyas occur only rarely in the observational record but are a near-permanent feature of many climate and ocean simulations. A question not previously considered is the degree to which the Weddell polynya affects the nearby Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) cavity. Here we assess these effects using regional ocean model simulations of the Weddell Sea and FRIS, where deep convection is imposed with varying area, location, and duration. In these simulations, the idealized Weddell polynyas consistently cause an increase in WDW transport onto the continental shelf as a result of density changes above the shelf break. This leads to saltier, denser source waters for the FRIS cavity, which then experiences stronger circulation and increased ice shelf basal melting. It takes approximately 14 years for melt rates to return to normal after the deep convection ceases. Weddell polynyas similar to those seen in observations have a modest impact on FRIS melt rates, which is within the range of simulated interannual variability. However, polynyas that are larger or closer to the shelf break, such as those seen in many ocean models, trigger a stronger response. These results suggest that ocean models with excessive Weddell Sea convection may not be suitable boundary conditions for regional models of the Antarctic continental shelf and ice shelf cavities.

A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail., New simulations find that one of Antarctica’s largest ice shelves, the Filchner–Ronne, may be less vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Melting of the ice shelf initially decreases for many decades, and only increases when global warming exceeds approximately 7 °C.

Results from CMIP5 have previously suggested that ensemble regression techniques or model selection may provide solutions to the challenge of making projections of future Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) in the presence of large historical biases. Here, we revisit and extend such analysis incorporating the CMIP6 ensemble, which shows modest improvements in some aspects of sea ice simulation and in particular a reduction of inter-model spread in historical SIA. We focus on the strongest forcing scenarios analysed, CMIP5 RCP85 and CMIP6 SSP5.85.In summer (February) the historical climatology of SIA is a strong linear constraint on projections of SIA in both generations. This is because the strong forcing leads to the loss of the majority of summer SIA in each model, so that the models that start with greater SIA exhibit greater reductions. Differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 are largely explained by the fact that, compared to CMIP6, CMIP5 contains many more models that have very large positive biases in historical SIA and do not lose the majority of ice.In winter (September), a much smaller proportion of SIA is lost, but inter-model spread in SIA climatology still explains just under half the variance in projections of SIA change, in both CMIP5 and CMIP6. The mean historical winter climatology is similar between generations, as is the regression slope of SIA change against SIA climatology. However, there is a greater reduction of SIA in CMIP6 than CMIP5. We find this to be statistically related to greater global mean warming in CMIP6 than CMIP5, and therefore potentially to the larger climate sensitivity in the CMIP6 ensemble.These findings imply that, depending on season, a different balance of local (SIA climatology) and global (GMST change) drivers can be used to explain the inter-model and inter-generation spread in projections of SIA loss. They also firmly tie our ability to project Antarctic SIA loss to our understanding of the fidelity of higher CMIP6 climate sensitivity. Questions remain about whether models are correct in their simulation of Antarctic SIA sensitivity to global surface temperature.

A UKESM climate model which is coupled annually to the BISICLES ice sheet model to enable a two way interactions in Antarctica has been developed and run through a small ensemble of four SSP1-1.9 & SSP5-8.5 scenario members. Under the extreme anthropogenic forcing, all the initial condition ensemble members develop strong melting under the cold & large Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice-shelves, where it starts after the first half of simulation period for the former and in the last decade of the run for the latter. Despite that, during the 85 years timescale of these scenario runs, the stronger radiative forcing has positive effects on the ice-sheet mass gain through increasing precipitation on grounded ice regions which offsets the impact of basal melting in ice discharge across the grounding lines.

In this presentation we describe how models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been incorporated in the global U.K. Earth System model (UKESM1) with a two-way coupling that passes fluxes of energy, water and the locations of ice surfaces between the component models. Offline, file-based coupling is used throughout to pass information between the components, which is both physically appropriate and convenient within the UKESM1 structure. Ice sheet surface mass balance is computed in the land surface model using sub-gridscale multi-layer snowpacks. Icebergs calved from the ice sheets are fed into a Langrangian iceberg drift scheme in the ocean. Ice shelf basal melt is explicitly calculated in cavities resolved by the ocean model, and ice sheet and shelf geometries are kept consistent in all components. We demonstrate that our coupled model remains stable when simulating changes in ice sheet height, extent and grounding-line position of hundreds of kilometres.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) supplies the lower limb of the global overturning circulation, ventilates the abyssal ocean and sequesters heat and carbon on multidecadal to millennial timescales. AABW originates on the Antarctic continental shelf, where strong winter cooling and brine released during sea ice formation produce Dense Shelf Water, which sinks to the deep ocean. The salinity, density and volume of AABW have decreased over the last 50 years, with the most marked changes observed in the Ross Sea. These changes have been attributed to increased melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we use in situ observations to document a recovery in the salinity, density and thickness (that is, depth range) of AABW formed in the Ross Sea, with properties in 2018–2019 similar to those observed in the 1990s. The recovery was caused by increased sea ice formation on the continental shelf. Increased sea ice formation was triggered by anomalous wind forcing associated with the unusual combination of positive Southern Annular Mode and extreme El Nino conditions between 2015 and 2018. Our study highlights the sensitivity of AABW formation to remote forcing and shows that climate anomalies can drive episodic increases in local sea ice formation that counter the tendency for increased ice-sheet melt to reduce AABW formation. Interacting atmospheric circulation patterns are responsible for a recent reversal of a decades-long decline in deepwater formation on the Antarctic shelf, according to an analysis of in situ and remote sensing data from the Ross Sea.

The contact between ice shelves and relatively warm ocean waters causes basal melt, ice shelf thinning, and ultimately ice sheet mass loss. This basal melt, and its dependence on ocean properties, is poorly understood due to an overall lack of direct observations and a difficulty in explicit simulation of the circulation in sub-shelf cavities. In this study, we compare a number of parameterisations and models of increasing complexity, up to a 2D ‘Layer’ model. Each model is aimed at quantifying basal melt rates as a function of offshore temperature and salinity. We test these models in an idealised setting (ISOMIP+) and in a realistic setting for the Amundsen Sea Embayment. All models show a comparable non-linear sensitivity of ice-shelf average basal melt to ocean warming, indicating a positive feedback between melt and circulation. However, the Layer model is the only one which explicitly resolves the flow direction of the buoyant melt plumes, which is primarily governed by rotation and by the basal topography of the ice shelves. At 500m resolution, this model simulates locally enhanced basal melt near the grounding line, in topographical channels, and near the western boundary. The simulated melt patterns for the Amundsen Sea ice shelves are compared to satellite observations of ice shelf thinning and to 3D numerical simulations of the sub-shelf cavity circulation. As detailed melt rates near the grounding line are essential for the stability of ice sheets, spatially realistic melt rates are crucial for future projections of ice sheet dynamics. We conclude that the Layer model can function as a relatively cheap yet realistic model to downscale 3D ocean simulations of ocean properties to sub-kilometer scale basal melt fields to provide detailed forcing fields to ice sheet models.

In recent years, the ice shelf of Pine Island Glacier has experienced several significant calving events. It is understood that the presence of the ice shelf in conjunction with a subglacial ridge provide a strong topographic barrier to warm Circumpolar Deep Water spilling onto the continental shelf, but it is not known how this barrier will respond to this recent, and possible future, calving events. In this presentation, I shall present results of numerical simulations of ocean circulation under Pine Island Glacier, which indicate a strong sensitivity to such calving events, and discuss the implications of these results for the overall stability of the glacier.

We report an idealized numerical study of a melting and freezing solid adjacent to a turbulent, buoyancy-affected shear flow, in order to improve our understanding of topography generation by phase changes in the environment. We use the phase-field method to dynamically couple the heat equation for the solid with the Navier-Stokes equations for the fluid. We investigate the evolution of an initially-flat and horizontal solid boundary overlying a pressure-driven turbulent flow. We assume a linear equation of state for the fluid and change the sign of the thermal expansion coefficient, such that the background density stratification is either stable, neutral or unstable. We find that channels aligned with the direction of the mean flow are generated spontaneously by phase changes at the fluid-solid interface. Streamwise vortices in the fluid, the interface topography and the temperature field in the solid influence each other and adjust until a statistical steady state is obtained. The crest-to-trough amplitude of the channels are larger than about 10$\delta_{\nu}$ in all cases, with $\delta_{\nu}$ the viscous length scale, but are much larger and more persistent for an unstable stratification than for a neutral or stable stratification. This happens because a stable stratification makes the cool melt fluid buoyant such that it shields the channel from further melting, whereas an unstable stratification makes the cool melt fluid sink, inducing further melting by rising hot plumes. The statistics of flow velocities and melt rates are investigated, and we find that channels and keels emerging in our simulations do not significantly change the mean drag coefficient., Comment: 35 pages, 15 figures

The sea ice thickness is recognized as an early indicator of climate changes. The mean Arctic sea ice thickness has been declining for the past four decades, and a sea ice thickness record minimum is confirmed occurring in autumn 2011. We used a daily sea ice thickness reanalysis data covering the melting season to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic processes leading to the minimum thickness. Ice thickness budget analysis demonstrates that the ice thickness loss is associated with an extraordinarily large amount of multiyear ice volume export through the Fram Strait during the season of sea ice advance. Due to the loss of multiyear ice, the Arctic ice thickness becomes more sensitive to atmospheric anomalies. The positive net surface energy flux anomalies melt roughly 0.22 m of ice more than usual from June to August. An analysis of clouds and radiative fluxes from ERA5 reanalysis data reveals that the increased net surface energy absorption supports the enhanced sea ice melt. The enhanced cloudiness led to positive anomalies of net long-wave radiation. Furthermore, the enhanced sea ice melt reduces the surface albedo, triggering an ice–albedo amplifying feedback and contributing to the accelerating loss of multiyear ice. The results demonstrate that the dynamic transport of multiyear ice and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice thickness.

The Amundsen Sea has the highest thinning rates of ice shelves in Antarctica. This imbalance is caused by changes in ocean melting induced by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intrusions. The resulting changing freshwater balance could affect the on‐shelf currents and mixing. However, a clear understanding of the sources and sinks of freshwater in the region is lacking. Here we use a model of the Amundsen Sea, with passive freshwater tracers, to investigate the relative magnitudes and spatial distributions of the different freshwater components. In the surface layer and as a depth average, all freshwater tracer concentrations are of comparable magnitude, though on a depth average, sea ice and ice shelf are largest. The total freshwater tracer distribution is similar to that of the ice‐shelf tracer field. This implies a potential for ice‐shelf meltwater feedbacks, whereby abundant ice‐shelf meltwater alters the ocean circulation and stratification, affecting melting. Ice‐shelf and sea‐ice freshwater fluxes have the largest interannual variability. The effect of including grounded icebergs and iceberg freshwater flux are studied in detail. The presence of icebergs increases CDW intrusions that reach the base of ice shelves. This suggests another possible feedback mechanism, whereby more icebergs induce greater ice‐shelf melting and hence more icebergs. However, the strength of this potential feedback is dependent on poorly constrained sea‐ice model parameters. These results imply that poorly constrained parameters relating to the ocean freshwater balance, such as those relating to icebergs and sea ice, impact predictions for melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

The changing supply of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the West Antarctic continental shelf is responsible for the basal melting and thinning of the West Antarctic ice shelves that has occurred in recent decades. Here, we assess the variability in CDW supply, and its drivers, from a multi‐year mooring deployed in, and a regional ocean model spanning, the Getz‐Dotson Trough, Amundsen Sea. Between 2010 to 2015, the CDW within the trough underwent a pronounced cooling and freshening, associated with changes in thermohaline properties on isopycnals. Variability in the rate of CDW inflow is controlled by local wind forcing of a shelf break undercurrent, which determines the hydrographic properties of inflowing CDW via tilting of density surfaces above the continental slope. Local wind is coupled to the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) low‐pressure system, which is modulated by large‐scale climatic modes via atmospheric teleconnections. For the period analysed, a deeper ASL was associated with westward wind anomaly at the shelf break. Changes in the sea surface slope decelerated the shelf break undercurrent, resulting in less heat accessing the continental shelf and, consequently, a cooling of the Getz‐Dotson Trough. Therefore, the present work suggests that the fate of the West Antarctic ice shelves is closely tied to the future evolution of the ASL.

The Southern Ocean is chronically undersampled due to its remoteness, harsh environment, and sea ice cover. Ocean circulation models yield significant insight into key processes and to some extent obviate the dearth of data; however, they often underestimate surface mixed layer depth (MLD), with consequences for surface water-column temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentration. In this study, a coupled circulation and sea ice model was implemented for the region adjacent to the West Antarctic Peninsula, a climatically sensitive region which has exhibited decadal trends towards higher ocean temperature, shorter sea ice season, and increasing glacial freshwater input, overlain by strong interannual variability. Hindcast simulations were conducted with different air-ice drag coefficients and Langmuir circulation parameterizations to determine the impact of these factors on MLD. Including Langmuir circulation deepened the surface mixed layer, with the deepening being more pronounced in the shelf and slope regions. Optimal selection of an air-ice drag coefficient also increased modeled MLD by similar amounts and had a larger impact in improving the reliability of the simulated MLD interannual variability. This study highlights the importance of sea ice volume and redistribution to correctly reproduce the physics of the underlying ocean, and the potential of appropriately parameterizing Langmuir circulation to help correct for biases towards shallow MLD in the Southern Ocean. The model also reproduces observed freshwater patterns in the West Antarctic Peninsula during late summer and suggests that areas of intense summertime sea ice melt can still show net annual freezing due to high sea ice formation during the winter.

In recent decades, rapid ice shelf disintegration along the Antarctic Peninsula has had a global impact through enhancing outlet glacier flow and hence sea level rise and the freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water. Ice shelf thinning due to basal melting results from the circulation of relatively warm water in the underlying ocean cavity. However, the effect of sub-shelf circulation on future ice shelf stability cannot be predicted accurately with computer simulations if the geometry of the ice shelf cavity is unknown. To address this deficit for Larsen C Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, we integrate new water column thickness measurements from recent seismic campaigns with existing observations. We present these new data here along with an updated bathymetry grid of the ocean cavity. Key findings include a relatively deep seabed to the southeast of the Kenyon Peninsula, along the grounding line and around the key ice shelf pinning-point of Bawden Ice Rise. In addition, we can confirm that the cavity's southern trough stretches from Mobiloil Inlet to the open ocean. These areas of deep seabed will influence ocean circulation and tidal mixing and will therefore affect the basal-melt distribution. These results will help constrain models of ice shelf cavity circulation with the aim of improving our understanding of sub-shelf processes and their potential influence on ice shelf stability. The datasets are comprised of all the new point measurements of seabed depth. We present the new depth measurements here, as well as a compilation of previously published measurements. To demonstrate the improvements to the sub-shelf bathymetry map that these new data provide we include a gridded data product in the Supplement of this paper, derived using the additional measurements of both offshore seabed depth and the thickness of grounded ice. The underlying seismic datasets that were used to determine bed depth and ice thickness are available at https://doi.org/10.5285/315740B1-A7B9-4CF0-9521-86F046E33E9A (Brisbourne et al., 2019), https://doi.org/10.5285/5D63777D-B375-4791-918F-9A5527093298 (Booth, 2019), https://doi.org/10.5285/FFF8AFEE-4978-495E-9210-120872983A8D (Kulessa and Bevan, 2019) and https://doi.org/10.5285/147BAF64-B9AF-4A97-8091-26AEC0D3C0BB (Booth et al., 2019).

In recent years, there have been great advances in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling, to the point where ice-ocean interactions can be represented in global climate models — with potential to greatly improve forecasting of marine ice-sheet loss and sea level rise in the coming century and beyond. However, initialisation of coupled ice sheet-ocean models has not yet been properly examined; and initialisation approaches applied to ocean and coupled atmosphere-ocean models may not be appropriate due to the long time scales inherent in dynamic ice sheets. Moreover, as ocean melt rates and ice-shelf geometry strongly influence each other, nonphysical transients in incorrectly initialised coupled ice-ocean models may persist for longer than in ice-sheet models alone.In this work, two approaches to coupled initialisation are considered using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model. The two approaches are based on two commonly used approaches to ice sheet model initialisation: “snapshot” calibration, where ice-sheet basal and internal parameters are configured to optimise fit with observed surface velocity; and “transient” calibration, where these parameters are configured to jointly optimise fit with velocity and geometry change; however, the transient calibration makes use of the ocean component to ensure the ice model is not subject to “initialisation shock” from ocean melting. The approaches are applied to Smith Glacier, a small but fast-thinning glacier in West Antarctica, and the model is forced under ocean warming scenarios in multidecadal runs. Initially there is much faster retreat seen in the Snapshot-calibrated simulation, but this difference decays over several decades, and ultimately the Transiently-calibrated model sees more retreat.The experiments further suggest that Smith Glacier is not likely to exhibit Marine Ice Sheet instability in the next century. But the methods discrepancy has strong implications for glaciers which are susceptible to this instability.

In this study, satellite-derived observations of sea ice concentration, drift, and thickness are combined to provide a climatology and inter-annual monthly variability of the sea ice volume budget over the growth season for the CryoSat-2 period Octobre 2010 to April 2019. This allows the first wintertime observational decomposition of the dynamic (advection and divergence) and thermodynamic drivers of ice volume change.Dynamic and thermodynamic processes will be separated by applying similar methods to Holland and Kwok (2012), which decomposed the governing equation of ice concentration, C:[1] ∂C/∂t + ∇.(uC) = f_C - rwhere u is ice drift motion, f_C is thermodynamic freezing or melting, and r is the concentration change from mass-conserving mechanical ice redistribution processes which convert ice area to ice thickness, such as ridging and rafting. ∂C/∂t represents ice intensification and ∇.(uC) represents ice flux divergence, the dynamic contribution to ice concentration.Equation 1 can be rearranged and the dynamic contribution, ∇.(uC), expanded to show the contributions from advection, (-u.∇C) and divergence, (-C∇.u), determining four terms:[2] ∂C/∂t = -u.∇C - C∇.u + f - rThe governing equation of the volume budget is of the same form but combines the thickness and concentration data:[3] ∂Ch/∂t = -u.∇Ch - Ch∇.u + f_Chwhere h is the thickness of the ice and the resulting product of the two datasets, Ch, is the effective thickness. If Ch were to be multiplied by the grid cell area this would give the volume, V. It is not necessary to take this step because the area remains constant and does not influence the relative values of the terms. However, when deriving an Arctic-wide climatology spatial integration across the grid cell areas is required. Ridging is taken into account by effective thickness change, therefore, it is not included in the calculations.The method is replicated using model simulations from the Centre for Climate Observation and Modelling (CPOM)-modified Los Alamos sea-ice model (CICE), providing a test of the model’s ability to calculate the volume budgets but also identifying unrealistic growth regimes in the CryoSat-2 observational datasets. Sensitivity to several observational datasets is performed to provide an estimated uncertainty of the budget calculations.The observational results show ice gain in the central Arctic is dominated by ice freezing with contributions from convergence. Divergence at the coastlines of the Arctic form an ice sink where freezing generates new ice. Advection is shown to drive ice equatorward and induce melting at the ice edge where ice becomes thermodynamically unstable. The dynamic components are found to grow in influence throughout the growth season.The 2016/17 winter growth season budget shows reduced thermodynamic intensification and stronger dynamic tendencies which may be in response to thin initial ice and an exceptionally warm winter. Compared to the observed volume budget, the CICE model displays similar patterns of thermodynamic freezing, however, dynamic components in the central Arctic are significantly reduced whilst they are over-amplified at the ice edge.

In this talk I will present preliminary results of direct numerical simulations of ice melting in a turbulent stratified shear flow. The model solves the evolution of the turbulent fluid phase and of the diffusive solid ice phase, due to melting and freezing, in a fully coupled way. This is done by combining a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) code with a novel formulation of the equations for the solid and liquid phases of water based on the phase-field method. DNS enables turbulent motions to be simulated without approximation, i.e. solving Navier Stokes equations, while the phase-field method allows the ice-ocean interface to be rough and evolve in response to melting. I will present results on the turbulent boundary layer and on the self-generated basal topography at the ice-water interface. The ultimate goal of this work is to propose a new DNS-based parameterization of the melting process at rough ice-ocean boundaries that takes into account the effects of temperature and salt stratification, and flow velocities.