1. Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa.
- Author
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Marshall, John, Wu, Sean, Sanchez C, Hector, Kiware, Samson, Ndhlovu, Micky, Ouédraogo, André, Touré, Mahamoudou, Sturrock, Hugh, Ghani, Azra, and Ferguson, Neil
- Subjects
Adolescent ,Adult ,Africa ,Child ,Child ,Preschool ,Female ,Humans ,Infant ,Malaria ,Male ,Models ,Theoretical ,Prevalence ,Spatial Analysis ,Travel ,Young Adult - Abstract
As Africa-wide malaria prevalence declines, an understanding of human movement patterns is essential to inform how best to target interventions. We fitted movement models to trip data from surveys conducted at 3-5 sites throughout each of Mali, Burkina Faso, Zambia and Tanzania. Two models were compared in terms of their ability to predict the observed movement patterns - a gravity model, in which movement rates between pairs of locations increase with population size and decrease with distance, and a radiation model, in which travelers are cumulatively absorbed as they move outwards from their origin of travel. The gravity model provided a better fit to the data overall and for travel to large populations, while the radiation model provided a better fit for nearby populations. One strength of the data set was that trips could be categorized according to traveler group - namely, women traveling with children in all survey countries and youth workers in Mali. For gravity models fitted to data specific to these groups, youth workers were found to have a higher travel frequency to large population centers, and women traveling with children a lower frequency. These models may help predict the spatial transmission of malaria parasites and inform strategies to control their spread.
- Published
- 2018