1. COVID-19 risk index (CRI): a simple and validated emergency department risk score that predicts mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation
- Author
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Lindsey Aurora, Mohammed Dabbagh, Chelsea Abshire, Omar Chehab, Sarah Gorgis, Mohamad Raad, Gurjit Singh, Jerry Yan, Sati Patel, Monica L Yost, Paul Nona, John D. Syrjamaki, Scott Kaatz, and Sachin Parikh
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Multivariate statistics ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Outcomes ,Risk Assessment ,Article ,medicine ,Humans ,Longitudinal Studies ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Mechanical ventilation ,Framingham Risk Score ,Receiver operating characteristic ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,COVID-19 ,Hematology ,Emergency department ,medicine.disease ,Respiration, Artificial ,Hospitalization ,Risk factors ,Emergency medicine ,Cohort ,Risk score ,Emergency Service, Hospital ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business ,Kidney disease - Abstract
Although certain risk factors have been associated with morbidity and mortality, validated emergency department (ED) derived risk prediction models specific to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. The objective of this study is to describe and externally validate the COVID-19 risk index (CRI). A large retrospective longitudinal cohort study was performed to analyze consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Multivariate regression using clinical data elements from the ED was used to create the CRI. The results were validated with an external cohort of 1799 patients from the MI-COVID19 database. The primary outcome was the composite of the need for mechanical ventilation or inpatient mortality, and the secondary outcome was inpatient mortality. A total of 1020 patients were included in the derivation cohort. A total of 236 (23%) patients in the derivation cohort required mechanical ventilation or died. Variables independently associated with the primary outcome were age ≥ 65 years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cerebrovascular disease, initial D-dimer > 1.1 µg/mL, platelet count
- Published
- 2021
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