Search

Abstract Age and sex influence the risk of childhood wasting. We aimed to determine if wasting treatment outcomes differ by age and sex in children under 5 years, enroled in therapeutic and supplementary feeding programmes. Utilising data from stage 1 of the ComPAS trial, we used logistic regression to assess the association between age, sex and wasting treatment outcomes (recovery, death, default, non‐response, and transfer), modelling the likelihood of recovery versus all other outcomes. We used linear regression to calculate differences in mean length of stay (LOS) and mean daily weight gain by age and sex. Data from 6929 children from Kenya, Chad, Yemen and South Sudan was analysed. Girls in therapeutic feeding programmes were less likely to recover than boys (pooled odds ratio [OR]: 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72–0.97, p = 0.018). This association was statistically significant in Chad (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39–0.95, p = 0.030) and Yemen (OR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.27–0.81, p = 0.006), but not in Kenya and South Sudan. Multinomial analysis, however, showed no difference in recovery between sexes. There was no difference between sexes for LOS, but older children (24–59 months) had a shorter mean LOS than younger children (6–23 months). Mean daily weight gain was consistently lower in boys compared with girls. We found few differences in wasting treatment outcomes by sex and age. The results do not indicate a need to change current programme inclusion requirements or treatment protocols on the basis of sex or age, but future research in other settings should continue to investigate the aetiology of differences in recovery and implications for treatment protocols.

This paper reviews the concept of the demographic dividend and the empirical evidence therefor. The demographic dividend is mainly the result of fertility decline (lower number of births, lower population growth) which translates into a population age structure with a larger work force (age 15–64) and a smaller proportion of children (age 0–14), together with initially few elderly persons (age 65+). In turn, this favors economic growth, but it also has many consequences for households and for state budgets, as well as long-term consequences for population size and the environment. The first part of this paper shows the small correlations at the national macro-economic level between dependency ratios and economic growth. The second part shows the strong correlations at the household level between levels of fertility, child mortality and modern education. The third part discusses the many other correlates of the demographic dividend. The often-cited and controversial focus of the demographic dividend on economic growth hides many other positive effects of fertility control on households, on state budgets, and, in the long-run, on societies and the environment.

Abstract Objective: To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children. Design: Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations. Setting: Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia. Participants: Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas. Results: For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone. Conclusions: Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.

BackgroundCovid-19 epidemics raged around the world in years 2020-2022. The dynamics of the epidemics and their mortality varied by country depending on prevention, treatments, vaccination and health status of the population.ObjectiveThe study compares Covid-19 morbidity and mortality in South-Africa and in France, two countries with similar population size and with reliable reporting systems, in order to better understand the dynamics and impacts of the epidemics and the effects of health policies and programs.Data and methodsData on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccinations were drawn from national statistics. Published data on cases and deaths were corrected for undercount.ResultsResults show a different epidemiology in the two countries in the first three years of the epidemic (2020-2022). Incidence was higher in South Africa, and some 44% more people were infected by December 2022 than in France. Mortality and case-fatality were also higher in South Africa despite a favourable age structure. The age pattern of mortality showed higher values in South Africa among the young adults. Young women appeared somewhat disadvantaged in South Africa. Lastly, vaccination appeared to have had no effect on incidence, but a large effect on case-fatality in France.ConclusionsDespite about the same population size and the same crude death rate at baseline, South Africa exhibited more cases and more deaths from Covid-19 over the 2020-2022 period. Prevention strategies (lockdown and vaccination) appear to have had large impacts on morbidity and mortality.

Abstract Objective: To understand which anthropometric diagnostic criteria best discriminate higher from lower risk of death in children and explore programme implications. Design: A multiple cohort individual data meta-analysis of mortality risk (within 6 months of measurement) by anthropometric case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, informedness and inclusivity in predicting mortality, face validity and compatibility with current standards and practice were assessed and operational consequences were modelled. Setting: Community-based cohort studies in twelve low-income countries between 1977 and 2013 in settings where treatment of wasting was not widespread. Participants: Children aged 6 to 59 months. Results: Of the twelve anthropometric case definitions examined, four (weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ)

Abstract Risk of death from undernutrition is thought to be higher in younger than in older children, but evidence is mixed. Research also demonstrates sex differences whereby boys have a higher prevalence of undernutrition than girls. This analysis described mortality risk associated with anthropometric deficits (wasting, underweight and stunting) in children 6–59 months by age and sex. We categorised children into younger (6–23 months) and older (24–59 months) age groups. Age and sex variations in near‐term (within 6 months) mortality risk, associated with individual anthropometric deficits were assessed in a secondary analysis of multi‐country cohort data. A random effects meta‐analysis was performed. Data from seven low‐or‐middle‐income‐countries collected between 1977 and 2013 were analysed. One thousand twenty deaths were recorded for children with anthropometric deficits. Pooled meta‐analysis estimates showed no differences by age in absolute mortality risk for wasting (RR 1.08, p = 0.826 for MUAC

Background: The mean age at menarche remains poorly documented in Africa. Aim: To document levels, trends, and determinants of mean age at menarche in selected African populations. Subjects and methods: The World Fertility Surveys recorded the age at menarche in 12 African countries. These surveys were conducted from 1977 to 1983 and were based on large representative samples of national populations. Demographic and Health Surveys provided trends in adult height for the same cohorts. Results: The mean age at menarche was higher in sub-Saharan Africa (14.5 years) than in North-Africa (13.5 years). Age at menarche was declining significantly in all sub-Saharan African countries, but only in one North-African country. The speed of decline in sub-Saharan Africa averaged 0.47 years for a 30-year period, comparable to the speed of decline in Europe. Sub-Saharan African countries with higher increase in female adult height also had larger declines in mean age at menarche. In multivariate analysis, trends in age at menarche were correlated with trends in adult height and child survival. Conclusion: In sub-Saharan Africa, age at menarche was undergoing a transition similar to that of European countries in the nineteenth century and was associated with improving health of young women. North-African countries were more advanced.

Background Excess male morbidity and mortality is well recognised in neonatal medicine and infant health. In contrast, within global nutrition, it is commonly assumed that girls are more at risk of experiencing undernutrition. We aimed to explore evidence for any male/female differences in child undernutrition using anthropometric case definitions and the reasons for differences observed.Methods We searched: Medline, Embase, Global health, Popline and Cochrane databases with no time limits applied. Eligible studies focused on children aged 0–59 months affected by undernutrition where sex was reported. In the meta-analysis, undernutrition-specific estimates were examined separately for wasting, stunting and underweight using a random-effects model.Results 74 studies were identified: 44/74 studies were included in the meta-analysis. In 20 which examined wasting, boys had higher odds of being wasted than girls (pooled OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.40). 38 examined stunting: boys had higher odds of stunting than girls (pooled OR 1.29 95% CI 1.22 to 1.37). 23 explored underweight: boys had higher odds of being underweight than girls (pooled OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.26). There was some limited evidence that the female advantage, indicated by a lower risk of stunting and underweight, was weaker in South Asia than other parts of the world. 43/74 (58%) studies discussed possible reasons for boy/girl differences; 10/74 (14%) cited studies with similar findings with no further discussion; 21/74 (28%) had no sex difference discussion. 6/43 studies (14%) postulated biological causes, 21/43 (49%) social causes and 16/43 (37%) to a combination.Conclusion Our review indicates that undernutrition in children under 5 is more likely to affect boys than girls, though the magnitude of these differences varies and is more pronounced in some contexts than others. Future research should further explore reasons for these differences and implications for nutrition policy and practice.

Complementing a recent systematic review and meta-analysis which showed that boys are more likely to be wasted, stunted, and underweight than girls, we conducted a narrative review to explore which early life mechanisms might underlie these sex differences. We addressed different themes, including maternal and newborn characteristics, immunology and endocrinology, evolutionary biology, care practices, and anthropometric indices to explore potential sources of sex differences in child undernutrition. Our review found that the evidence on why sex differences occur is limited but that a complex interaction of social, environmental, and genetic factors likely underlies these differences throughout the life cycle. Despite their bigger size at birth and during infancy, in conditions of food deprivation, boys experience more undernutrition from as early as the foetal period. Differences appear to be more pronounced in more severe presentations of undernutrition and in more socioeconomically deprived contexts. Boys are more vulnerable to infectious disease, and differing immune and endocrine systems appear to explain some of this disadvantage. Limited evidence also suggests that different sociological factors and care practices might exert influence and have the potential to exacerbate or reverse observed differences. Further research is needed to better understand sex differences in undernutrition and the implications of these for child outcomes and prevention and treatment programming.

Background: Completeness of vital registration remains very low in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in rural areas. Objectives: To investigate trends and factors in completeness of birth and death registration in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa covering a population of about 110,000 persons, under demographic surveillance since 1992. The population belongs to the Shangaan ethnic group and hosts a sizeable community of Mozambican refugees. Design: Statistical analysis of birth and death registration over time in a 22-year perspective (1992–2014). Over this period, major efforts were made by the government of South Africa to improve vital registration. Factors associated with completeness of registration were investigated using univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Birth registration was very incomplete at onset (7.8% in 1992) and reached high values at end point (90.5% in 2014). Likewise, death registration was low at onset (51.4% in 1992), also reaching high values at end point (97.1% in 2014). For births, the main factors were mother's age (much lower completeness among births to adolescent mothers), refugee status, and household wealth. For deaths, the major factors were age at death (lower completeness among under-five children), refugee status, and household wealth. Completeness increased for all demographic and socioeconomic categories studied and is likely to approach 100% in the future if trends continue at this speed. Conclusion: Reaching high values in the completeness of birth and death registration was achieved by excellent organization of the civil registration and vital statistics, a variety of financial incentives, strong involvement of health personnel, and wide-scale information and advocacy campaigns by the South African government.

Background: Although there are significant numbers of people displaced by war in Africa, very little is known about long-term changes in the fertility of refugees. Refugees of the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) settled in many neighbouring countries, including South Africa. A large number of Mozambican refugees settled within the Agincourt sub-district, underpinned by a Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Site (AHDSS), established in 1992, and have remained there. The AHDSS data provide a unique opportunity to study changes in fertility over time and the role that the fertility of self-settled refugee populations plays in the overall fertility level of the host community, a highly relevant factor in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: To examine the change in fertility of former Mozambican self-settled refugees over a period of 16 years and to compare the overall fertility and fertility patterns of Mozambicans to host South Africans. Design: Prospective data from the AHDSS on births from 1993 to 2009 were used to compare fertility trends and patterns and to examine socio-economic factors that may be associated with fertility change. Results: There has been a sharp decline in fertility in the Mozambican population and convergence in fertility patterns of Mozambican and local South African women. The convergence of fertility patterns coincides with a convergence in other socio-economic factors. Conclusion: The fertility of Mozambicans has decreased significantly and Mozambicans are adopting the childbearing patterns of South African women. The decline in Mozambican fertility has occurred alongside socio-economic gains. There remains, however, high unemployment and endemic poverty in the area and fertility is not likely to decrease further without increased delivery of family planning to adolescents and increased education and job opportunities for women.

Background . The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) by two thirds within 25 years. The article discusses changes in U5MR for 35 sub-Saharan African countries, for which DHS surveys are available. Methods . Analysis of DHS data, reconstruction of time series of U5MR, and comparison with other series. Findings . Few countries were able to achieve MDG-4 from 1985 to 2010, and the few who did seem to have achieved the goal apparently either because of abnormally high baseline or a surprisingly low endpoint. If all countries experienced significant mortality decline, only a minority had a steady decline, and many had periods of rising and falling mortality, for a variety of reasons. Interpretation . Discussion focuses on data quality, on methods for estimating levels and trends in under-5 mortality, and on the circumstances explaining rises and falls in mortality. MDG-4 appeared overambitious for Africa, given high mortality levels, political instability, economic crises, and above all emerging diseases, in particular HIV/AIDS. The last 10 years from 2000 to 2010 appeared as the most favorable period since 1960 in African countries, with the exception of countries with widespread HIV/AIDS.

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases.

Measurement of the level and composition of maternal mortality depends on the definition used, with inconsistencies leading to inflated rates and invalid comparisons across settings. This study investigates the differences in risk of death for women in their reproductive years during and outside the maternal risk period (pregnancy, delivery, puerperium), focusing on specific causes of infectious, non-communicable and external causes of death after separating out direct obstetrical causes.Data on all deaths of women aged 15-49 years that occurred in the Agincourt sub-district between 1992 and 2010 were obtained from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) located in rural South Africa. Causes of death were assessed using a validated verbal autopsy instrument. Analysis included 2170 deaths, of which 137 occurred during the maternal risk period.Overall, women had significantly lower mortality during the maternal risk period than outside it (age-standardized RR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.63-0.89). This was true in most age groups with the exception of adolescents aged 15-19 years where the risk of death was higher. Mortality from most causes, other than obstetric causes, was lower during the maternal risk period except for malaria, cardiovascular diseases and violence where there were no differences. Lower mortality was significant for HIV/AIDS (RR = 0.29, P

A two-sex compartmental model of the dynamics of HIV infection was developed and applied to the case of Zambia. Parameters include age specific rates of fertility, mortality, entry into sexual life, number of partners and age of partners. They were all derived from empirical data from Demographic and Health Surveys, and applied by single year of age. The model was unable to fit age and sex patterns of infection observed in 2001. Current knowledge of HIV transmission does not allow fitting the dynamics of HIV epidemics. Further research is needed to understand the dynamics of HIV heterosexual epidemics in Africa.

In Zambia, under-five mortality declined from 1958 to 1975, rose from 1975 to 1992, before resuming its decline from 1992 to 2001. The study investigates the economic, political, and epidemiologic determinants of these changes. The rise in mortality could be explained by an economic downturn (declining income per capita, resulting from lower copper prices on international markets and decreasing production, and its numerous consequences), and to a lesser extent by emerging diseases (increasing mortality from HIV/AIDS and resistant malaria). However, mortality decline could resume as a result of building social and health capital, in particular health personnel, and favorable health policies. Key words--under-five mortality, economic crisis, economic policies, health policies, sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia