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We analyze a set of events in which both electron flux dropouts caused by magnetopause shadowing and geosynchronous magnetopause crossings (GMCs) are observed. These observations are compared to event‐specific last closed drift shell (LCDS) models derived from the TS05 and TS07 external field models and magnetopause standoff distance. The LCDS models show good association with losses due to magnetopause shadowing but fail to reproduce observations of GMCs on the timescale of minutes. We show that different satellites in geostationary orbit observe different trends in electron flux during storm events on timescales of less than a day due to their separation in longitude. These differences demonstrate that both satellite L* and magnetic local time must be taken into account when modeling rapid variations in the outer radiation belt, and at least three satellites in geostationary orbit, ideally more, may be required for accurate forecasting and reconstruction of these events on timescales shorter than days.

Recurrent and large forest fires negatively impact ecosystem, air quality, and human health. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire product is used to identify forest fires over central India domain, an extremely fire prone region. The study finds that from 2001 to 2020, ∼70% of yearly forest fires over the region occurred during March (1,857.5 counts/month) and April (922.8 counts/month). Some years such as 2009, 2012, and 2017 show anomalously high forest fires. The role of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is comprehensively investigated. Warmer period from 2006 to 2020 showed doubling and tripling of forest fire activity during forest fire (February–June; FMAMJ) and non‐fire (July–January; JASONDJ) seasons, respectively. From 2015 JASONDJ to 2018 FMAMJ, central India experienced a severe heatwave, a rare drought and an extremely strong El Niño, the combined effect of which is linked to increased forest fires. Further, the study assesses quinquennial spatiotemporal changes in forest fire characteristics such as fire count density and average fire intensity. Deciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park in Chhattisgarh state are particularly fire prone (>61 fire counts/grid) during FMAMJ and many forest fires are of high intensity (>45 MW). Statistical associations link high near surface air temperature and low precipitation during FMAMJ to significantly high soil temperature, low soil moisture content, low evapotranspiration and low normalized difference vegetation index. This creates a significantly drier environment, conducive for high forest fire activity in the region., Key Points Compared to 2001–2005, central India domain forest fire activity during 2006–2020 doubled in forest fire season and tripled in non‐fire seasonRole of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is highlightedDeciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park are extremely fire prone and fires are of high intensity

We present a comparison of magnetospheric plasma mass/electron density observations during an 11‐day interval which includes the geomagnetic storm of June 22, 2015. For this study we used: Equatorial plasma mass density derived from geomagnetic field line resonances (FLRs) detected by Van Allen Probes and at the ground‐based magnetometer networks EMMA and CARISMA; in situ electron density inferred by the Neural‐network‐based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination algorithm applied to plasma wave Van Allen Probes measurements. The combined observations at L ∼ 4, MLT ∼ 16 of the two longitudinally separated magnetometer networks show a temporal pattern very similar to that of the in situ observations: A density decrease by an order of magnitude about 1 day after the Dst minimum, a partial recovery a few hours later, and a new strong decrease soon after. The observations are consistent with the position of the measurement points with respect to the plasmasphere boundary as derived by a plasmapause test particle simulation. A comparison between plasma mass densities derived from ground and in situ FLR observations during favorable conjunctions shows a good agreement. We find however, for L, Key Points The combination of longitudinally separated magnetometer arrays reproduces main magnetospheric plasma density variations observed in situObservations are consistent with predictions provided by a plasmapause test particle simulationPlasma mass densities derived from ground and in situ field line resonance (FLR) observations for L > 3 are in good agreement during favorable conjunction intervals

We calculate auroral energy flux and Joule heating in the high‐latitude ionosphere for 27 geomagnetically active days using two‐dimensional maps of field‐aligned currents determined by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Response Experiment. The energy input to the ionosphere due to Joule heating increases more rapidly with geomagnetic activity than that due to precipitating particles. The energy flux varies more smoothly with time than Joule heating, which is impulsive in nature on time scales from minutes to tens of minutes. These impulsive events correlate well with recoveries in the Sym‐H index, with the maximum correlation when compared to Sym‐H recoveries 70 min later. Because of prior studies that have associated transient recoveries of Sym‐H with substorm expansions, the delay found here suggests that dissipation of energy in the ionosphere occurs during the substorm growth phase prior to the release of magnetic energy caused by diversion of tail currents., Key Points We calculate hemispherically integrated precipitating particle energy fluxes and Joule heating from global maps of field‐aligned currentsEnergy input from Joule heating and precipitating particles correlates well with increases in the Sym‐H index occurring about 1 h laterJoule heating in the ionosphere during substorm growth phase is approximately equal to magnetic energy released during substorm expansion

Significant polar topside total electron content (topTEC) enhancement (PTTE) above 1,336 km altitude is reported for the first time. The results are based on GPS measurements during 2008–2019 from NASA's Jason‐2 satellite with zenith‐oriented antennas. The observations show increasing topTEC toward the southern polar cap at geomagnetic latitudes poleward of 65°S, where TEC values are normally very low. A case study for the 2013 St. Patrick's Day storm indicates that the enhancement can exceed 5.5 TEC units above the dayside ambient state, corresponding to 78% increase. Comparisons with COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 topTEC measurements above 800 km altitude confirm that PTTE events are observed from both Jason‐2 and COSMIC on the same day. Our statistical analysis of the Jason‐2 data in the southern polar region reveals that PTTE mostly occurs on the dayside, with a seasonal preference of southern summer, and preferentially during geomagnetically disturbed days but can also occur during quiet days. PTTE during storm days shows increased occurrence, magnitude, and deviation from the mean in the cusp region compared with quiet days. Our case analysis indicates that PTTE is observed simultaneously with the effect of tongue of ionization. This suggests that the during storms, dayside F region plasma moving poleward following the antisunward plasma convection may also be part of the PTTE source, and the plasma upflow driven by the polar wind may act to cause PTTE., Key Points NASA's Jason‐2 satellite zenith‐viewing GPS total electron content (TEC) measurements spanning 2008–2018 are analyzedSignificant increases of TEC above 1,336 km altitude in the southern polar region are reported for the first timeThe polar topside TEC enhancement (PTTE) appears preferentially during geomagnetic storms and during summer

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward‐moving disturbance near the equator (±30°) that typically recurs every ∼30–90 days in tropical winds and clouds, is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical convection and circulation and has been extensively studied due to its importance for medium‐range weather forecasting. A previous statistical diagnostic of SABER/TIMED observations and the MJO index showed that the migrating diurnal (DW1) and the important nonmigrating diurnal (DE3) tide modulates on MJO‐timescale in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) by about 20%–30%, depending on the MJO phase. In this study, we address the physics of the underlying coupling mechanisms using SABER, MERRA‐2 reanalysis, and SD‐WACCMX. Our emphasis was on the 2008–2010 time period when several strong MJO events occurred. SD‐WACCMX and SABER tides show characteristically similar MJO‐signal in the MLT region. The tides largely respond to the MJO in the tropospheric tidal forcing and less so to the MJO in tropospheric/stratospheric background winds. We further quantify the MJO response in the MLT region in the SD‐WACCMX zonal and meridional momentum forcing by separating the relative contributions of classical (Coriolis force and pressure gradient) and nonclassical forcing (advection and gravity wave drag [GWD]) which transport the MJO‐signal into the upper atmosphere. Interestingly, the tidal MJO‐response is larger in summer due to larger momentum forcing in the MLT region despite the MJO being most active in winter. We find that tidal advection and GWD forcing in MLT can work together or against each other depending on their phase relationship to the MJO‐phases., Key Points SABER and SD‐WACCMX diurnal temperature tides show a statistically similar response connected to the tropospheric Madden‐Julian OscillationTropospheric radiative and latent heating is more important in forcing the tidal MJO‐response than tropo/stratospheric wind‐filteringCoriolis, pressure gradient, advection, and gravity wave drag forcing are the important mechanisms in the MLT region for tidal MJO‐response

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed; that is, it is drag based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different setups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well‐defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2 ± 7.9 and 9.9 ± 13 hr depending on the model setup used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near‐real‐time STEREO‐A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ∼7 years when STEREO‐A is observing the Sun‐Earth space., Key Points CME prediction tool ELEvoHI is ready to be used in real time, based on STEREO‐A/HI beacon dataDifferent model setups and inputs lead to large differences of the prediction accuraciesAccurate modeling of the ambient solar wind is of particular importance to improve CME predictions

Understanding the energization processes and constituent composition of the plasma and energetic particles injected into the near‐Earth region from the tail is an important component of understanding magnetospheric dynamics. In this study, we present multiple case studies of the high‐energy (≳40 keV) suprathermal ion populations during energetic particle enhancement events observed by the Energetic Ion Spectrometer (EIS) on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission in the magnetotail. We present results from correlation analysis of the flux response between different energy channels of different ion species (hydrogen, helium, and oxygen) for multiple cases. We demonstrate that this technique can be used to infer the dominant charge state of the heavy ions, despite the fact that charge is not directly measured by EIS. Using this technique, we find that the energization and dispersion of suprathermal ions during energetic particle enhancements concurrent with (or near) fast plasma flows are ordered by energy per charge state (E/q) throughout the magnetotail regions examined (~7 to 25 Earth radii). The ions with the highest energies (≳300 keV) are helium and oxygen of solar wind origin, which obtain their greater energization due to their higher charge states. Additionally, the case studies show that during these injections the flux ratio of enhancement is also well ordered by E/q. These results expand on previous results which showed that high‐energy total ion measurements in the magnetosphere are dominated by high‐charge‐state heavy ions and that protons are often not the dominant species above ~300 keV., Key Points In the magnetotail during injections, the charge states of suprathermal He and O ions can be inferred with a correlation analysisEnergization of ionospheric and solar wind ions during injections in the magnetotail is remarkably coherent and ordered by charge stateThe highest energy ions (≳300 keV) observed are heavies of solar wind origin and reach higher energies due to their higher charge states

Inward radial diffusion driven by ULF waves has long been known to be capable of accelerating radiation belt electrons to very high energies within the heart of the belts, but more recent work has shown that radial diffusion values can be highly event‐specific, and mean values or empirical models may not capture the full significance of radial diffusion to acceleration events. Here we present an event of fast inward radial diffusion, occurring during a period following the geomagnetic storm of 17 March 2015. Ultrarelativistic electrons up to ∼8 MeV are accelerated in the absence of intense higher‐frequency plasma waves, indicating an acceleration event in the core of the outer belt driven primarily or entirely by ULF wave‐driven diffusion. We examine this fast diffusion rate along with derived radial diffusion coefficients using particle and fields instruments on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft mission., Key Points Fast radial diffusion of ultrarelativistic electrons is observed days after storm main phaseEvent‐specific radial diffusion can be orders of magnitude higher than statistical valuesULF‐wave driven acceleration can account for intense particle enhancement observed in inner magnetosphere

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3‐D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward‐pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof‐of‐concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun‐Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9–13 July 2013. Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3‐D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left‐handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30° and a deflection angle of 20° is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation., Key Points A new semiempirical model (3DCORE) for simulating the propagation of coronal mass ejection magnetic flux ropes is introduced3DCORE is able to model the observations of a coronal mass ejection on 9–13 July 2013 observed at MESSENGER and WindSolar, coronagraph, and MESSENGER observations are used as constraints, resulting in a good match of the modeled and observed Dst index

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point., Key Points Hindsight predictions of CMEs by modeling observations from the STEREO heliospheric imagers science data are analyzed for 2007‐2014About one out of four predicted CME arrivals is observed in situ as a magnetic obstacle by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind, and STEREO A/BAlthough using strong assumptions on CME physics, prediction accuracies for CME arrival times are similar to numerical or analytical models

We report global observations of high‐m poloidal waves during the recovery phase of the 22 June 2015 magnetic storm from a constellation of widely spaced satellites of five missions including Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS), Van Allen Probes, Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorm (THEMIS), Cluster, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). The combined observations demonstrate the global spatial extent of storm time poloidal waves. MMS observations confirm high azimuthal wave numbers (m ~ 100). Mode identification indicates the waves are associated with the second harmonic of field line resonances. The wave frequencies exhibit a decreasing trend as L increases, distinguishing them from the single‐frequency global poloidal modes normally observed during quiet times. Detailed examination of the instantaneous frequency reveals discrete spatial structures with step‐like frequency changes along L. Each discrete L shell has a steady wave frequency and spans about 1 R E, suggesting that there exist a discrete number of drift‐bounce resonance regions across L shells during storm times., Key Points Observed long‐lasting high‐m poloidal waves associated with second harmonics of field line resonances during a major magnetic stormDemonstrated global spatial extent of storm time poloidal FLR region using observations from a constellation of widely spaced satellitesRevealed discrete spatial structures of resonant L shells with step‐like frequency changes

We develop an optimization approach to model the magnetic field configuration of magnetic clouds, based on a linear-force free formulation in three dimensions. Such a solution, dubbed the Freidberg solution, is kin to the axi-symmetric Lundquist solution, but with more general "helical symmetry". The merit of our approach is demonstrated via its application to two case studies of in-situ measured magnetic clouds. Both yield results of reduced $\chi^2\approx 1$. Case 1 shows a winding flux rope configuration with one major polarity. Case 2 exhibits a double-helix configuration with two flux bundles winding around each other and rooted on regions of mixed polarities. This study demonstrates the three-dimensional complexity of the magnetic cloud structures., Comment: Submitted to ApJL on Aug 24, 2020; rejected by Editor without review... Resubmitted to GRL, in press (see DOI; Open Access)

Ring current electrons (1–100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four‐dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler‐mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 R E R E, which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 R E and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40‐keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit., Key Points Ring current electron dynamics within geostationary orbit is modeled and the sensitivity of the model to the input parameters is exploredGlobal convective electron transport from geostationary orbit to 4.5 R E can explain Van Allen Probe observationsModel results below 4.5 R E are most sensitive to the electric field and electron lifetimes

The substorm process releases large amounts of energy into the magnetospheric system, although where the energy is transferred to and how it is partitioned remains an open question. In this study, we address whether the substorm process contributes a significant amount of energy to the ring current. The ring current is a highly variable region, and understanding the energization processes provides valuable insight into how substorm‐ring current coupling may contribute to the generation of storm conditions and provide a source of energy for wave driving. In order to quantify the energy input into the ring current during the substorm process, we analyze Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment and Helium Oxygen Proton Electron ion flux measurements for H+, O+, and He+. The energy content of the ring current is estimated and binned spatially for L and magnetic local time. The results are combined with an independently derived substorm event list to perform a statistical analysis of variations in the ring current energy content with substorm phase. We show that the ring current energy is significantly higher in the expansion phase compared to the growth phase, with the energy enhancement persisting into the substorm recovery phase. The characteristics of the energy enhancement suggest the injection of energized ions from the tail plasma sheet following substorm onset. The local time variations indicate a loss of energetic H+ ions in the afternoon sector, likely due to wave‐particle interactions. Overall, we find that the average energy input into the ring current is ∼9% of the previously reported energy released during substorms., Key Points This study explored the spatial variations of the average ring current energy content for H+, O+, and He+ ionsThe ring current energy content increases following substorm onset with strong spatial dependencesApproximately 9% of the energy released in a typical substorm is transferred to the ring current

A Monte Carlo method of investigating the effects of placing selection criteria on the magnetic signature of in situ encounters with flux ropes is presented. The technique is applied to two recent flux rope surveys of MESSENGER data within the Hermean magnetotail. It is found that the different criteria placed upon the signatures will preferentially identify slightly different subsets of the underlying population. Quantifying the selection biases first allows the distributions of flux rope parameters to be corrected, allowing a more accurate estimation of the intrinsic distributions. This is shown with regard to the distribution of flux rope radii observed. When accounting for the selection criteria, the mean radius of Hermean magnetotail quasi‐force‐free flux ropes is found to be 589−269+273 km. Second, it is possible to weight the known identifications in order to determine a rate of recurrence that accounts for the presence of the structures that will not be identified. In the case of the Hermean magnetotail, the average rate of quasi‐force‐free flux ropes is found to 0.12 min−1 when selection effects are accounted for (up from 0.05 min−1 previously inferred from observations)., Key Points A Monte Carlo method is presented to estimate and correct for sampling biases in spacecraft surveys of magnetic flux ropesMethod allows the correction of observed distributions (e.g., flux rope radii) according to the selection criteria employedAccounting for unidentified flux ropes increases the average rate of flux ropes in Mercury's magnetotail from 0.05 to 0.12 min−1

This study identifies the solar origins of magnetic clouds that are observed at 1 AU and predicts the helical handedness of these clouds from the solar surface magnetic fields. We started with the magnetic clouds listed by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team supporting NASA's Wind spacecraft in what is known as the MFI table and worked backward in time to identify solar events that produced these clouds. Our methods utilize magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft so that we could only analyze MFI entries after the beginning of 2011. This start date and the end date of the MFI table gave us 37 cases to study. Of these we were able to associate only eight surface events with clouds detected by Wind at 1 AU. We developed a simple algorithm for predicting the cloud helicity that gave the correct handedness in all eight cases. The algorithm is based on the conceptual model that an ejected flux tube has two magnetic origination points at the positions of the strongest radial magnetic field regions of opposite polarity near the places where the ejected arches end at the solar surface. We were unable to find events for the remaining 29 cases: lack of a halo or partial halo coronal mass ejection in an appropriate time window, lack of magnetic and/or filament activity in the proper part of the solar disk, or the event was too far from disk center. The occurrence of a flare was not a requirement for making the identification but in fact flares, often weak, did occur for seven of the eight cases., Key Points We describe and apply methods for the identification of solar surface sources of coronal mass ejectionsWe apply two methods for the estimation of helicity produced from identified sources

Past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (D s t > −50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes., Key Points Radiation belt relativistic electron response to small storms is as extreme as to large stormsSmall storms are slightly less/more likely to enhance/deplete electrons than large stormsNevertheless, electron response does not scale with size of storm, even for very small storms

The outer radiation belt consists of relativistic (>0.5 MeV) electrons trapped on closed trajectories around Earth where the magnetic field is nearly dipolar. During increased geomagnetic activity, electron intensities in the belt can vary by orders of magnitude at different spatial and temporal scales. The main phase of geomagnetic storms often produces deep depletions of electron intensities over broad regions of the outer belt. Previous studies identified three possible processes that can contribute to the main‐phase depletions: adiabatic inflation of electron drift orbits caused by the ring current growth, electron loss into the atmosphere, and electron escape through the magnetopause boundary. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of the adiabatic effect and magnetopause loss to the rapid depletion of the outer belt observed at the Van Allen Probes spacecraft during the main phase of 17 March 2013 storm. The intensities of >1 MeV electrons were depleted by more than an order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the belt in less than 6 h after the sudden storm commencement. For the analysis we used three‐dimensional test particle simulations of global evolution of the outer belt in the Tsyganenko‐Sitnov (TS07D) magnetic field model with an inductive electric field. Comparison of the simulation results with electron measurements from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer experiment shows that magnetopause loss accounts for most of the observed depletion at L>5, while at lower L shells the depletion is adiabatic. Both magnetopause loss and the adiabatic effect are controlled by the change in global configuration of the magnetic field due to storm time development of the ring current; a simulation of electron evolution without a ring current produces a much weaker depletion., Key Points Main‐phase depletions are caused by magnetopause lossesLosses are enabled by a diamagnetic effect due to storm time ring currentBoth the third and the second invariants are violated in the loss process

During a magnetic storm on 23 June 2015, several very intense substorms took place, with signatures observed by multiple spacecraft including DMSP and Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS). At the time of interest, DMSP F18 crossed inbound through a poleward expanding auroral bulge boundary at 23.5 h magnetic local time (MLT), while MMS was located duskward of 22 h MLT during an inward crossing of the expanding plasma sheet boundary. The two spacecraft observed a consistent set of signatures as they simultaneously crossed the reconnection separatrix layer during this very intense reconnection event. These include (1) energy dispersion of the energetic ions and electrons traveling earthward, accompanied with high electron energies in the vicinity of the separatrix; (2) energy dispersion of polar rain electrons, with a high‐energy cutoff; and (3) intense inward convection of the magnetic field lines at the MMS location. The high temporal resolution measurements by MMS provide unprecedented observations of the outermost electron boundary layer. We discuss the relevance of the energy dispersion of the electrons, and their pitch angle distribution, to the spatial and temporal evolution of the boundary layer. The results indicate that the underlying magnetotail magnetic reconnection process was an intrinsically impulsive and the active X‐line was located relatively close to the Earth, approximately at 16–18 RE., Key Points Simultaneous observations of the PSBL during a strong substorm suggest a near‐tail reconnection site being located at 16–18 RE For the first time, we resolve both energy and pitch angle dispersion of the electron evidence that the boundary layer has temporal originFirst observation of thin energetic electron layers in PSBL with thicknesses of the electron gyroscale

Ultralow frequency (ULF) waves play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere and outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms. Broadband ULF wave power can transport energetic electrons via radial diffusion, and discrete ULF wave power can energize electrons through a resonant interaction. Using observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission, we characterize the evolution of ULF waves during a high‐speed solar wind stream (HSS) and moderate geomagnetic storm while there is an enhancement of the outer radiation belt. The Automated Flare Inference of Oscillations code is used to distinguish discrete ULF wave power from broadband wave power during the HSS. During periods of discrete wave power and utilizing the close separation of the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft, we estimate the toroidal mode ULF azimuthal wave number throughout the geomagnetic storm. We concentrate on the toroidal mode as the HSS compresses the dayside magnetosphere resulting in an asymmetric magnetic field topology where toroidal mode waves can interact with energetic electrons. Analysis of the mode structure and wave numbers demonstrates that the generation of the observed ULF waves is a combination of externally driven waves, via the Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability, and internally driven waves, via unstable ion distributions. Further analysis of the periods and toroidal azimuthal wave numbers suggests that these waves can couple with the core electron radiation belt population via the drift resonance during the storm. The azimuthal wave number and structure of ULF wave power (broadband or discrete) have important implications for the inner magnetospheric and radiation belt dynamics., Key Points ULF wave power is systematically characterized as discrete or broadband, and the azimuthal wave number of discrete ULF waves is determinedStorm time discrete ULF waves can couple with the core radiation belt electron population via the drift resonanceStorm time ULF waves are the result of both external (Kelvin‐Helmholtz) and internal (plasma instabilities) generation mechanisms

As a direct result of magnetic reconnection, plasma sheet fast flows act as primary transporter of mass, flux, and energy in the Earth's magnetotail. During the last decades, these flows were mainly studied within X GSM>−60R E, as observations near or beyond lunar orbit were limited. By using 5 years (2011–2015) of ARTEMIS (Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of the Moons Interaction with the Sun) data, we statistically investigate earthward and tailward flows at around 60 R E downtail. A significant fraction of fast flows is directed earthward, comprising 43% (v x>400 km/s) to 56% (v x>100 km/s) of all observed flows. This suggests that near‐Earth and midtail reconnection are equally probable of occurring on either side of the ARTEMIS downtail distance. For fast convective flows (v ⊥ x>400 km/s), this fraction of earthward flows is reduced to about 29%, which is in line with reconnection as source of these flows and a downtail decreasing Alfvén velocity. More than 60% of tailward convective flows occur in the dusk sector (as opposed to the dawn sector), while earthward convective flows are nearly symmetrically distributed between the two sectors for low AL (>−400 nT) and asymmetrically distributed toward the dusk sector for high AL (− 60R E) is likely symmetric across the tail during weak substorms and asymmetric toward the dusk sector for strong substorms, as the dawn‐dusk asymmetric nature of reconnection onset in the near‐Earth region progresses downtail., Key Points Around 43–56% of fast flows near lunar orbit are directed earthwardThe percentage of flows greater than a threshold magnitude that are tailward increases as the threshold increasesTailward convective flows and fast earthward convective flows are preferentially found at dusk

Long lead‐time space‐weather forecasting requires accurate prediction of the near‐Earth solar wind. The current state of the art uses a coronal model to extrapolate the observed photospheric magnetic field to the upper corona, where it is related to solar wind speed through empirical relations. These near‐Sun solar wind and magnetic field conditions provide the inner boundary condition to three‐dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere out to 1 AU. This physics‐based approach can capture dynamic processes within the solar wind, which affect the resulting conditions in near‐Earth space. However, this deterministic approach lacks a quantification of forecast uncertainty. Here we describe a complementary method to exploit the near‐Sun solar wind information produced by coronal models and provide a quantitative estimate of forecast uncertainty. By sampling the near‐Sun solar wind speed at a range of latitudes about the sub‐Earth point, we produce a large ensemble (N = 576) of time series at the base of the Sun‐Earth line. Propagating these conditions to Earth by a three‐dimensional MHD model would be computationally prohibitive; thus, a computationally efficient one‐dimensional “upwind” scheme is used. The variance in the resulting near‐Earth solar wind speed ensemble is shown to provide an accurate measure of the forecast uncertainty. Applying this technique over 1996–2016, the upwind ensemble is found to provide a more “actionable” forecast than a single deterministic forecast; potential economic value is increased for all operational scenarios, but particularly when false alarms are important (i.e., where the cost of taking mitigating action is relatively large)., Key Points An ensemble sampling of near‐Sun conditions provides a better solar wind forecast than a single deterministic forecastThe ensemble approach both improves the “best” estimate and provides a reliable measure of solar wind forecast uncertaintyThe ensemble approach is particularly useful in operational settings where false alarms are important (i.e., high cost of mitigating action)

We evaluate the large‐scale energy budget of magnetic reconnection utilizing an analytical time‐dependent impulsive reconnection model and a numerical 2‐D MHD simulation. With the generalization to compressible plasma, we can investigate changes in the thermal, kinetic, and magnetic energies. We study these changes in three different regions: (a) the region defined by the outflowing plasma (outflow region, OR), (b) the region of compressed magnetic fields above/below the OR (traveling compression region, TCR), and (c) the region trailing the OR and TCR (wake). For incompressible plasma, we find that the decrease inside the OR is compensated by the increase in kinetic energy. However, for the general compressible case, the decrease in magnetic energy inside the OR is not sufficient to explain the increase in thermal and kinetic energy. Hence, energy from other regions needs to be considered. We find that the decrease in thermal and magnetic energy in the wake, together with the decrease in magnetic energy inside the OR, is sufficient to feed the increase in kinetic and thermal energies in the OR and the increase in magnetic and thermal energies inside the TCR. That way, the energy budget is balanced, but consequently, not all magnetic energy is converted into kinetic and thermal energies of the OR. Instead, a certain fraction gets transfered into the TCR. As an upper limit of the efficiency of reconnection (magnetic energy → kinetic energy) we find η eff=1/2. A numerical simulation is used to include a finite thickness of the current sheet, which shows the importance of the pressure gradient inside the OR for the conversion of kinetic energy into thermal energy., Key Points Grad P inside plasma outflow region reduces kinetic energy and enhances thermal energyWake region and TCR must be considered for full energy balanceReconnection acts as a refrigerator

Wave‐particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earth's radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm‐time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm‐time wave power., Key Points Storm‐time wave power varies significantly and is typically larger than that of empirical models derived from extended data setsGeomagnetic activity indices are a poor proxy for storm‐time wave powerMore accurate empirical models of wave power are required

Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection‐driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching −223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching −204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high‐energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong “butterfly” distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported “impenetrable barrier” at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis., Key Points March and June 2015 storms offer insight into ultrarelativistic electron dynamicsImpenetrable barrier can be pushed inward, still isolates high‐E electrons from inner zoneMulti‐MeV electrons take 1‐2 days to appear following these strong driving events.

It is known that the correction of the Kyoto Dst index for the secular variation of the Earth's internal field produces a discontinuity in the Kyoto Dst index at the end of each year. We show that this secular correction also introduces a significant baseline error to the Kyoto Dst index that leads to an underestimate of the solar cycle variation of geomagnetic activity and of the strength of the ring current as measured by the Kyoto Dst index. Thus, the average value of the Kyoto Dst index would be approximately 13 nT more negative for the active year 2003 compared to quiet years 2006 and 2009 if the Kyoto Dst index properly measured the effects of the ring current and other currents that influence the Dst observatories. Discontinuities in the Kyoto Dst index at the end of each year have an average value of about 5 nT, but the discontinuity at the end of year 2002 was approximately 12 nT, and the discontinuity at the end of year 1982 may have been as large as 20 nT., Key Points Kyoto Dst index underestimates the solar cycle variation of magnetic activityLong‐term averages of the Kyoto Dst index should be used with cautionQuiet time currents produce a depression of the surface equatorial magnetic field of 15–30 nT

We address the effect of ionospheric outflow and magnetospheric ion composition on the physical processes that control the development of the 5 August 2011 magnetic storm. Simulations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework are used to investigate the global dynamics and energization of ions throughout the magnetosphere during storm time, with a focus on the formation and evolution of the ring current. Simulations involving multifluid (with variable H+/O+ ratio in the inner magnetosphere) and single‐fluid (with constant H+/O+ ratio in the inner magnetosphere) MHD for the global magnetosphere with inner boundary conditions set either by specifying a constant ion density or by physics‐based calculations of the ion fluxes reveal that dynamical changes of the ion composition in the inner magnetosphere alter the total energy density of the magnetosphere, leading to variations in the magnetic field as well as particle drifts throughout the simulated domain. A low oxygen to hydrogen ratio and outflow resulting from a constant ion density boundary produced the most disturbed magnetosphere, leading to a stronger ring current but misses the timing of the storm development. Conversely, including a physics‐based solution for the ionospheric outflow to the magnetosphere system leads to a reduction in the cross‐polar cap potential (CPCP). The increased presence of oxygen in the inner magnetosphere affects the global magnetospheric structure and dynamics and brings the nightside reconnection point closer to the Earth. The combination of reduced CPCP together with the formation of the reconnection line closer to the Earth yields less adiabatic heating in the magnetotail and reduces the amount of energetic plasma that has access to the inner magnetosphere., Key Points Low O+/H+ ratio produced stronger ring currentInclusion of physics‐based ionospheric outflow leads to a reduction in the CPCPOxygen presence is linked to a nightside reconnection point closer to the Earth

International audience; New subauroral α15 indices are proposed. They are based on a simple reproducible algorithm which relies on an as dense as possible network of magnetic observatories in each hemisphere. At first, the variation with time of local geomagnetic activity is determined at each magnetic station. Gathering all obtained stations' precomputed values, a normalization with corrected geomagnetic latitude is determined. Then, for each 15 min interval, magnetic activity on the horizontal component is averaged out over 15 min and corrected using this normalization, before a spline modeling of the longitudinal variation in each hemisphere is applied. Hemispheric and planetary 15 min indices are then computed by arithmetic means. Preliminary statistical results, from probability distribution function over a solar cycle and superposed epoch analysis during storms conditions, show, by comparison with am geomagnetic index series, that new α15 indices are reliable in describing subauroral magnetic activity. These new indices will suit any future user, allowing either to choose the spatial description (planetary versus hemispheric) and/or to choose the temporal resolution, knowing unambiguously all their strengths and caveats.

Ion temperatures as a function of the x and y axes in the geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinate system and time are available for 76 geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period July 2008 to December 2013 on CDAWeb. The method for mapping energetic neutral atom data from the Two Wide‐angle Imaging Spectrometers (TWINS) mission to the GSM equatorial plane and subsequent ion temperature calculation are described here. The ion temperatures are a measure of the average thermal energy of the bulk ion population in the 1–40 keV energy range. These temperatures are useful for studies of ion dynamics, for placing in situ measurements in a global context, and for establishing boundary conditions for models of the inner magnetosphere and the plasma sheet., Key Points Ion temperatures are calculated from TWINS energetic neutral atom dataMaps of ion temperatures during geomagnetic storms are available on CDAWeb