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Background Chronic limb-threatening ischaemia with ischaemic pain and/or tissue loss. Objective To examine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a vein bypass-first compared to a best endovascular treatment-first revascularisation strategy in preventing major amputation or death. Design Superiority, open, pragmatic, multicentre, phase III randomised trial. Setting Thirty-nine vascular surgery units in the United Kingdom, and one each in Sweden and Denmark. Participants Patients with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia due to atherosclerotic peripheral arterial disease who required an infra-popliteal revascularisation, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation procedure, to restore limb perfusion. Interventions A vein bypass-first or a best endovascular treatment-first infra-popliteal, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation strategy. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was amputation-free survival. Secondary outcomes included overall survival, major amputation, further revascularisation interventions, major adverse limb event, health-related quality of life and serious adverse events. Methods Participants were randomised to a vein bypass-first or a best endovascular treatment-first revascularisation strategy. The original sample size of 600 participants (247 events) was based on a hazard ratio of 0.66 with amputation-free survival rates of 0.72, 0.62, 0.53, 0.47 and 0.35 in years 1–5 in the best endovascular treatment-first group with 90% power and alpha at p = 0.05. The sample size was revised to an event-based approach as a result of increased follow-up time due to slower than anticipated recruitment rates. Participants were followed up for a minimum of 2 years. A cost-effectiveness analysis was employed to estimate differences in total hospital costs and amputation-free survival between the groups. Additionally, a cost–utility analysis was carried out and the total cost and quality-adjusted life-years, 2 and 3 years after randomisation were used. Results Between 22 July 2014 and 30 November 2020, 345 participants were randomised, 172 to vein bypass-first and 173 to best endovascular treatment-first. Non-amputation-free survival occurred in 108 (63%) of 172 patients in the vein bypass-first group and 92 (53%) of 173 patients in the best endovascular treatment-first group [adjusted hazard ratio 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.80); p = 0.037]. Ninety-one (53%) of 172 patients in the vein bypass-first group and 77 (45%) of 173 patients in the best endovascular treatment-first group died [adjusted hazard ratio 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.87)]. Over follow-up, the economic evaluation discounted results showed that best endovascular treatment-first was associated with £1690 less hospital costs compared to vein bypass-first. The cost utility analysis showed that compared to vein bypass-first, best endovascular treatment-first was associated with £224 and £2233 less discounted hospital costs and 0.016 and 0.085 discounted quality-adjusted life-year gain after 2 and 3 years from randomisation. Limitations Recruiting patients to the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial-2 trial was difficult and the target number of events was not achieved. Conclusions A best endovascular treatment-first revascularisation strategy was associated with better amputation-free survival, which was largely driven by fewer deaths. Overall, the economic evaluation results suggest that best endovascular treatment-first dominates vein bypass-first in the cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–utility analysis as it was less costly and more effective than a vein bypass-first strategy. Future work The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial-2 investigators have a data sharing agreement with the BEst Surgical Therapy in patients with Chronic Limb threatening Ischaemia investigators. One output of this collaboration will be an individual patient data meta-analysis. Study registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27728689. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/35/45) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 65. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. Plain language summary Atherosclerosis, or narrowing of the arteries, can occur as a result of smoking, high blood pressure, diabetes, or high cholesterol in the blood. Atherosclerosis can affect any artery, including those supplying the legs, where the condition is called peripheral arterial disease. The most severe form of peripheral arterial disease is chronic limb-threatening ischaemia which can cause severe pain in the foot as well as ulcers and gangrene. Unless the blood supply to the leg and foot is improved, by a process called revascularisation, people with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia are at high risk of amputation and death. The blood supply can be improved by using a vein from the leg to bypass around the blockages (vein bypass) or by using a balloon (angioplasty) or small metal tubes (stents) to reopen the blocked arteries (best endovascular treatment). There is debate about which type of revascularisation is best in terms of preventing amputation and death, especially in people who need revascularisation of the arteries below the knee. Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial-2 is the first randomised controlled trial to compare vein bypass-first and best endovascular treatment-first in this group of patients. Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial-2 found that people randomised to a vein bypass-first revascularisation strategy were 35% more likely to require a major amputation or die than those randomised to a best endovascular treatment-first strategy. Most of this difference in favour of best endovascular treatment-first was due to a higher number of patients dying in the vein bypass-first group. Best endovascular treatment-first was also cheaper for the National Health Service. The results of this study suggest that in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia due to peripheral arterial disease in the arteries below the knee, who are suitable for both vein bypass and best endovascular treatment and where there is uncertainty as to which is best, best endovascular treatment should be offered first rather than vein bypass. Scientific summary Background Chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) is the severest manifestation of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and presents with ischaemic pain at rest or tissue loss (ulceration, gangrene or both) or both. The researchers compared the effectiveness of a vein bypass (VB)-first with a best endovascular treatment (BET)-first revascularisation strategy in terms of preventing major amputation and death in patients with CLTI who required an infra-popliteal (IP) revascularisation, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation procedure, to restore limb perfusion. Objectives The primary objective of the study was to examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using a VB-first compared to a BET-first revascularisation strategy in terms of preventing major (above the ankle) amputation or death from any cause [amputation-free survival (AFS)] in patients with CLTI who required an IP, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation procedure, to restore limb perfusion. Design Superiority, open-label, pragmatic, multicentre, phase III randomised trial. Setting Thirty-nine vascular surgery units in the United Kingdom, and one each in Sweden and Denmark. Participants Those with CLTI due to atherosclerotic PAD and who required an IP revascularisation, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation procedure, to restore limb perfusion. Interventions A VB-first or a BET-first IP, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation strategy, to restore limb perfusion. Most VBs were constructed with great saphenous vein and originated from the common or superficial femoral arteries. Most endovascular interventions comprised plain balloon angioplasty with selective use of plain or drug-eluting stents. Outcome measures The primary outcome was AFS defined as time to first major (above the ankle) amputation or death from any cause. Secondary outcomes included: time to death from any cause (overall survival); time to major amputation of the trial leg; major adverse limb event (defined as major amputation of the trial leg, or any further major revascularisation intervention to the trial leg, following the first revascularisation intervention); major adverse cardiac event (defined as chronic limb-threatening ischaemia and/or major amputation affecting the non-trial leg, myocardial infarction, transient ischaemic attack or stroke); 30-day morbidity and mortality; relief of ischaemic pain as determined by visual analogue scale and opiate usage; health- related quality of life using generic [EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version (EQ-5D-5L), Short Form questionnaire-12 items, ICEpop CAPability measure for Older people] and disease-specific (the Vascular Quality of Life Questionnaire) tools; further major revascularisation intervention to the trial leg (following the first revascularisation intervention); re-intervention and crossover intervention (where re-intervention is defined as the same, and a crossover procedure is defined as an alternative, revascularisation procedure to the first revascularisation procedure post-randomisation); healing of tissue loss (ulcers, gangrene) at or below the ankle presumed to be caused by PAD as assessed by the perfusion, extent, depth, infection and sensation score, the Wound Ischaemia and foot Infection tool; and haemodynamic measurements (ankle–brachial pressure index, and toe brachial pressure index). Serious adverse events were collected up to 30 days post first revascularisation. Economic evaluation analyses in the form of cost-effectiveness and cost–utility analysis (CUA) were conducted from the perspective of the UK NHS alongside the trial. The base case analyses considered only hospital costs and an additional scenario and subgroup analyses were carried out. Sample size The original sample size was based on a time-to-event analysis to be undertaken 2 years after completion of recruitment. It was anticipated that recruitment would take place over 3 years: 20% of patients recruited in year 1, 40% in year 2 and 40% in year 3. Based on the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg Trial (BASIL-1) trial. AFS rates were assumed to be 0.72 in year 1, 0.62 in year 2, 0.53 in year 3, 0.47 in year 4 and 0.35 in year 5. Allowing for a 10% attrition rate and based on the survival estimates calculated using the BASIL-1 data, a population of 600 participants (247 primary outcome events) would have 90% power to detect a reduction in AFS of one-third [hazard ratio (HR) 0.66] at the 5% significance level. The initial assumptions made in this trial concerning recruitment rates were not achieved; therefore, recruitment continued beyond year 3. As a result, the median length of follow-up was longer than originally planned. Therefore, the number of randomised participants required to observe 247 events (as per the original sample size target) was reduced due to the increased exposure time. With support of the funder and independent oversight from the Data Monitoring Committee, recruitment rates, length of follow-up, and pooled event rates over time were modelled to predict the number of participants needed to reach 247 events, with 24 months minimum follow-up in each participant. The modelling was updated approximately every 6 months based on emerging data. Results Between 22 July 2014 and 30 November 2020, 345 participants were randomised, 172 to the VB-first group and 173 to the BET-first group. The baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. Major amputation or death occurred in 108 (63%) of 172 patients in the VB-first group and 92 (53%) of 173 patients in the BET-first group {adjusted HR 1.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.80]; p = 0.037}. Ninety-one (53%) of 172 patients in the VB-first group and 77 (45%) of 173 patients in the BET-first group died [adjusted HR 1.37 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.87)]. In both groups the commonest causes of morbidity and mortality, including those occurring within 30 days of their first revascularisation, were cardiovascular and respiratory events. Over follow-up, the economic evaluation results showed that BET-first was associated with £1690 less hospital costs compared to VB-first with additional survival without amputation. The cost utility analysis showed that compared to VB-first, BET-first was associated with £2524 and £2233 less hospital costs and 0.016 and 0.085 QALY gain after 2 and 3 years from randomisation. Conclusions In the BASIL-2 trial, a BET-first revascularisation strategy was associated with a better AFS, which was largely driven by fewer deaths in the BET-first group. In both the CUA and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) analyses and from a NHS and societal perspective BET-first dominated VB-first and is therefore a highly cost-effective intervention for the NHS. These data suggest a greater role for BET in the management of patients with CLTI who require an IP revascularisation to restore limb perfusion. In patients with CLTI who required an IP, with or without an additional more proximal infra-inguinal revascularisation procedure, to restore limb perfusion, a BET-first revascularisation strategy was associated with reduced hospital costs (£1690) and improved AFS (0.429 years), out to 7 years following randomisation. BET-first therefore dominated VB-first in the CEA. Similarly, in the health-related quality of life the CUA, BET-first was cost-saving with improved QALYs (£2524 and £2233 less hospital costs and 0.016 and 0.085 more QALYs at 2 and 3 years, respectively) and so dominated VB-first. This economic analysis therefore shows that BET-first is a cost-effective option from an NHS and societal perspective. The sensitivity analysis supported the base-case analysis and BET-first was found to be cost-effective at different willingness-to-pay thresholds. Similar findings were found in all other scenario analyses when considering costs of primary and other hospital healthcare services, taking a broader societal perspective, which includes out-of-pocket expenditure and the costs associated with productivity loss, patient’s adherence to study protocol, the impact of imputation by focusing on participants with complete hospital cost and EQ-5D-5L data only. However, these findings should be interpreted cautiously given the large number of imputed cost values and the substantial probability of a very small QALY difference. Study registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27728689. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/35/45) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 65. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Background Strain and shear wave elastography which is commonly used with concurrent real-time imaging known as real-time ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography is a new diagnostic technique that has been reported to be useful in the diagnosis of nodules in several organs. There is conflicting evidence regarding its benefit over ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology alone in thyroid nodules. Objectives To determine if ultrasound strain and shear wave elastography in conjunction with fine-needle aspiration cytology will reduce the number of patients who have a non-diagnostic first fine-needle aspiration cytology results as compared to conventional ultrasound-only guided fine-needle aspiration cytology. Design A pragmatic, unblinded, multicentre randomised controlled trial. Setting Eighteen centres with a radiology department across England. Participants Adults who had not undergone previous fine-needle aspiration cytology with single or multiple nodules undergoing investigation. Interventions Ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography-ultrasound guided fine-needle aspiration cytology (intervention arm) – strain or shear wave elastography-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology. Ultrasound-only guided fine-needle aspiration cytology (control arm) – routine ultrasound-only guided fine-needle aspiration cytology (the current standard recommended by the British Thyroid Association guidelines). Main outcome measure The proportion of patients who have a non-diagnostic cytology (Thy 1) result following the first fine-needle aspiration cytology. Randomisation Patients were randomised at a 1 : 1 ratio to the interventional or control arms. Results A total of 982 participants (80% female) were randomised: 493 were randomised to ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography-ultrasound guided fine-needle aspiration cytology and 489 were randomised to ultrasound-only guided fine-needle aspiration cytology. There was no evidence of a difference between ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography and ultrasound in non-diagnostic cytology (Thy 1) rate following the first fine-needle aspiration cytology (19% vs. 16% respectively; risk difference: 0.030; 95% confidence interval −0.007 to 0.066; p = 0.11), the number of fine-needle aspiration cytologies needed (odds ratio: 1.10; 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.49; p = 0.53) or in the time to reach a definitive diagnosis (hazard ratio: 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.10; p = 0.45). There was a small, non-significant reduction in the number of thyroid operations undertaken when ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography was used (37% vs. 40% respectively; risk difference: −0.02; 95% confidence interval −0.06 to 0.009; p = 0.15), but no difference in the number of operations yielding benign histology – 23% versus 24% respectively, p = 0.70 (i.e. no increase in identification of malignant cases) – or in the number of serious adverse events (2% vs. 1%). There was no difference in anxiety and depression, pain or quality of life between the two arms. Limitations The study was not powered to detect differences in malignancy. Conclusions Ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography does not appear to have additional benefit over ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules. Future work The findings of the ElaTION trial suggest that further research into the use of shear wave elastography in the diagnostic setting of thyroid nodules is unlikely to be warranted unless there are improvements in the technology. The diagnostic difficulty in distinguishing between benign and malignant lesions still persists. Future studies might examine the role of genomic testing on fine-needle aspiration samples. There is growing use of targeted panels of molecular markers, particularly aimed at improving the diagnostic accuracy of indeterminate (i.e. Thy3) cytology results. The application of these tests is not uniform, and their cost effectiveness has not been assessed in large-scale trials. Study registration This study is registered as ISRCTN (ISRCTN18261857). Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/19/04) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 46. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. Plain language summary About half the population will have lumps in their thyroid if examined by an ultrasound scan but may not know they have one. About one in twenty people will feel a thyroid lump in their neck at some time in their life, with about one in twenty of those being malignant. Currently, the recommended way of getting a diagnosis of thyroid nodules is by using ultrasound to guide a needle to get cells from the lump, called ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology. These cells are examined to determine the cause of the lump. If there are enough cells, Doctors can then make a diagnosis of whether the lump is benign or malignant. If not, patients will undergo another ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology. One in five ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytologies are non-diagnostic with an overall false-positive rate of approximately 24%. This means one in five patients, with benign disease, may undergo unnecessary diagnostic operations. Thyroid surgery carries risks of complications, which could be avoided if we had better ways to diagnose which patients actually need an operation. We conducted a randomised trial, ElaTION, to determine if a new technology called strain and shear wave elastography, commonly known as real-time elastography, would be better at helping the radiologist take a sufficient sample of cells and reduce the number of non-diagnostic results, reducing the number of fine-needle aspiration cytologies required to make a definitive diagnosis. Nine hundred eighty-two patients were recruited between 2015 and 2018 and followed up until the end of the trial. Patients were randomised into two groups: 489 patients received the standard ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology alone, and 493 patients received ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology + shear wave elastography. Ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography did not reduce non-diagnostic cytology at first fine-needle aspiration cytology or improve the likelihood of determining whether the lump is benign or malignant. The results of ElaTION do not support the use of shear wave elastography-fine-needle aspiration cytology in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules. Scientific summary Background Strain elastography (STE) which is commonly used with concurrent real-time imaging known as real-time elastography (RTE) and shear wave elastography (SWE) are new diagnostic techniques that have been reported to be useful in the diagnosis of nodules in several organs. There is conflicting evidence regarding its benefit over ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration cytology (US-FNAC) alone in thyroid nodules. Objectives The primary objective was to determine if strain/shear wave ultrasound elastography (USE) in conjunction with FNAC will reduce the number of patients with thyroid nodules who have a non-diagnostic first FNAC result as compared to conventional ultrasound (US)-only guided FNAC. Design ElaTION was a pragmatic, multicentre randomised controlled trial. Setting Eighteen centres with a radiology department across England. Participants Adults with thyroid nodules who had not undergone previous FNAC with single or multiple nodules undergoing investigation. Interventions Ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography-US guided FNAC (intervention arm) – strain or shear wave elastography (USE)-guided FNAC. US-only guided FNAC (control arm) – routine US-only guided FNAC (the current standard recommended by the British Thyroid Association guidelines). Main outcome measures Primary outcome The proportion of patients who have a non-diagnostic cytology (Thy 1) result following the first FNAC. Secondary outcomes The number of FNACs required to obtain a definitive diagnosis; time from first FNAC to a definitive diagnosis; the false-positive rate of nodules; the number of patients who have a non-diagnostic cytology result following any FNAC; the proportion of patients undergoing thyroidectomy; accuracy of US alone (overall); accuracy of first FNAC; accuracy of USE or US without FNAC compared to accuracy of USE or US with FNAC; and patient reported anxiety, pain and quality of life [by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), Visual Analogue Pain Scale (VAPS) and EuroQol (EQ)-5D questionnaire at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months post randomisation]. Results A total of 982 participants were randomised: 493 were randomised to USE-US guided FNAC and 489 were randomised to US-only guided FNAC. There was no evidence of a difference between USE and US in non-diagnostic (Thy 1) rate following the first FNAC [19% vs. 16% respectively; risk difference (RD): 0.030; 95% confidence interval (CI), −0.007 to 0.066; p = 0.11], the number of FNACs needed [odds ratio (OR): 1.10; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.49; p = 0.53] or in the time to reach a definitive diagnosis [hazard ratio (HR): 0.94; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.10; p = 0.45]. There was a small, non-significant reduction in the number of thyroid operations undertaken when USE was used (37% vs. 40% respectively; RD: −0.02; 95% CI, −0.06 to 0.009; p = 0.15), but no difference in the number of operations yielding benign histology – 23% versus 24% respectively, p = 0.70 (i.e. no increase in identification of malignant cases) – or in the number of serious adverse events (2% vs. 1%). There was no difference in anxiety and depression, pain or quality of life between the two arms. Limitations The study was not powered to detect differences in malignancy. Conclusions Ultrasound shear/strain wave elastography does not appear to have additional benefit over US-FNAC in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules. Study registration This study is registered as ISRCTN (ISRCTN18261857). Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/19/04) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 46. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Introduction Prostate MRI is a well-established tool for the diagnostic work-up for men with suspected prostate cancer (PCa). Current recommendations advocate the use of multiparametric MRI (mpMRI), which is composed of three sequences: T2-weighted sequence (T2W), diffusion-weighted sequence (DWI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced sequence (DCE). Prior studies suggest that a biparametric MRI (bpMRI) approach, omitting the DCE sequences, may not compromise clinically significant cancer detection, though there are limitations to these studies, and it is not known how this may affect treatment eligibility. A bpMRI approach will reduce scanning time, may be more cost-effective and, at a population level, will allow more men to gain access to an MRI than an mpMRI approach.Methods Prostate Imaging Using MRI±Contrast Enhancement (PRIME) is a prospective, international, multicentre, within-patient diagnostic yield trial assessing whether bpMRI is non-inferior to mpMRI in the diagnosis of clinically significant PCa. Patients will undergo the full mpMRI scan. Radiologists will be blinded to the DCE and will initially report the MRI using only the bpMRI (T2W and DWI) sequences. They will then be unblinded to the DCE sequence and will then re-report the MRI using the mpMRI sequences (T2W, DWI and DCE). Men with suspicious lesions on either bpMRI or mpMRI will undergo prostate biopsy. The main inclusion criteria are men with suspected PCa, with a serum PSA of ≤20 ng/mL and without prior prostate biopsy. The primary outcome is the proportion of men with clinically significant PCa detected (Gleason score ≥3+4 or Gleason grade group ≥2). A sample size of at least 500 patients is required. Key secondary outcomes include the proportion of clinically insignificant PCa detected and treatment decision.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained from the National Research Ethics Committee West Midlands, Nottingham (21/WM/0091). Results of this trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications. Participants and relevant patient support groups will be informed about the results of the trial.Trial registration number NCT04571840.

Background: Since changes in the national guidance in 2011, prophylactic antibiotics for women undergoing caesarean section are recommended prior to skin incision, rather than after the baby’s umbilical cord has been clamped. Evidence from randomised controlled trials conducted outside the UK has shown that this reduces maternal infectious morbidity; however, the prophylactic antibiotics also cross the placenta, meaning that babies are exposed to them around the time of birth. Antibiotics are known to affect the gut microbiota of the babies, but the long-term effects of exposure to high-dose broad-spectrum antibiotics around the time of birth on allergy and immune-related diseases are unknown. Objectives: We aimed to examine whether or not in-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth compared with no pre-incisional antibiotic exposure increases the risk of (1) asthma and (2) eczema in children born by caesarean section. Design: This was a controlled interrupted time series study. Setting: The study took place in primary and secondary care. Participants: Children born in the UK during 2006–18 delivered by caesarean section were compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally. Interventions: In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth. Main outcome measures: Asthma and eczema in children in the first 5 years of life. Additional secondary outcomes, including other allergy-related conditions, autoimmune diseases, infections, other immune system-related diseases and neurodevelopmental conditions, were also assessed. Data sources: The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care databases and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Previously published linkage strategies were adapted to link anonymised data on mothers and babies in these databases. Duplicate practices contributing to both THIN and the CPRD databases were removed to create a THIN–CPRD data set. Results: In the THIN–CPRD and HES data sets, records of 515,945 and 3,945,351 mother–baby pairs were analysed, respectively. The risk of asthma was not significantly higher in children born by caesarean section exposed to pre-incision antibiotics than in children whose mothers received post-cord clamping antibiotics, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) for diagnosis of asthma in primary care and an incidence rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.11) for asthma resulting in a hospital admission. We also did not find an increased risk of eczema, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to1.03) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.29) for diagnosis in primary care and hospital admissions, respectively. Limitations: It was not possible to ascertain the exposure to pre-incision antibiotics at an individual level. The maximum follow-up of children was 5 years. Conclusions: There was no evidence that the policy change from post-cord clamping to pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean sections during 2006–18 had an impact on the incidence of asthma and eczema in early childhood in the UK. Future work: There is a need for further research to investigate if pre-incision antibiotics have any impact on developing asthma and other allergy and immune-related conditions in older children. Study registration: This study is registered as researchregistry3736. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BackgroundThe comparative analysis of the effect of several doses of statins against different intensities of physical exercise on arterial stiffness (a measure of cardiovascular risk) could shed light for clinicians on which method is most effective in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and be used to inform shared decision-making between doctors and patients. This study was aimed at analyzing the effect, in high cardiometabolic risk patients, of different statins doses and exercise intensities on arterial stiffness (a measure of cardiovascular risk) by integrating all available direct and indirect evidence in network meta-analyses.Methods and findingsWe systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, SPORTDiscus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science databases from their inception to February 28, 2020; for unpublished trials, we also searched ClinicalTrials.gov. We searched for studies concerning the effect of statins or physical exercise on arterial stiffness, measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV). For methodological quality assessment, Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias (RoB2) was used. A network geometry graph was used to assess the strength of the evidence. Comparative evaluation of the interventions effect was performed by conducting a standard pairwise meta-analysis and a network meta-analysis (NMA) for direct and indirect comparisons between interventions and control/nonintervention. A total of 22 studies were included in the analyses (18 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 4 nonrandomized experimental studies), including 1,307 patients with high cardiometabolic risk from Asia (3 studies), Oceania (2 studies), Europe (10 studies), North America (5 studies), and South America (2 studies). The overall risk of bias assessed with RoB2 was high in all included studies. For standard pairwise meta-analysis and NMA, high-intensity exercise versus control (mean difference (MD) -0.56; 95% CI: -1.01, -0.11; p = 0.015 and -0.62; 95% CI: -1.20, -0.04; p = 0.038, respectively) and moderate statin dose versus control (MD -0.80, 95% CI: -1.59, -0.01; p = 0.048 and -0.73, 95% CI: -1.30, -0.15; p = 0.014, respectively) showed significant MDs. When nonrandomized experimental studies were excluded, the effect on high-intensity exercise versus control and moderate statin dose versus was slightly modified. The main limitation of this study was that the magnitude of the effect of the exercise interventions could be underestimated due to regression toward the mean bias because the baseline cardiometabolic risk profile of patients in the physical exercise intervention trials was healthier than those in the statins ones; consequently, more modest improvements in physical exercise interventions compared to statins interventions can be expected. Additionally, we might consider as limitations the small study sizes, the heterogeneous patient groups, the focus on a proxy endpoint (PWV), and the high risk of bias.ConclusionsIn this NMA, we found that although many patients could benefit from statins for reducing CVD risk, our results support that, considering the beneficial effects of high-intensity exercise on arterial stiffness, it would be worthwhile to refocus our attention on this type of exercise as an effective tool for the prevention of CVD.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42019123120.

Objectives To assess the accuracy and completeness of information provided by websites selling home self-sampling and testing kits for COVID-19.Design Cross-sectional observational study.Setting All websites (n=27) selling direct to user home self-sampling and testing kits for COVID-19 (41 tests) in the UK (39 tests) and USA (two tests) identified by a website search on 23 May 2020.Main outcome measures Thirteen predefined basic information items to communicate to a user, including who should be tested, when and how testing should be done, test accuracy, and interpretation of results.Results Many websites did not provide the name or manufacturer of the test (32/41; 78%), when to use the test (10/41; 24%), test accuracy (12/41; 29%), and how to interpret results (21/41; 51%). Sensitivity and specificity were the most commonly reported test accuracy measures (either reported for 27/41 [66%] tests): we could only link these figures to manufacturers’ documents or publications for four (10%) tests. Predictive values, most relevant to users, were rarely reported (five [12%] tests reported positive predictive values). For molecular virus tests, 9/23 (39%) websites explained that test positives should self-isolate, and 8/23 (35%) explained that test negatives may still have the disease. For antibody tests, 12/18 (67%) websites explained that testing positive does not necessarily infer immunity from future infection. Seven (39%) websites selling antibody tests claimed the test had a CE mark, when they were for a different intended use (venous blood rather than finger-prick samples).Conclusions At the point of online purchase of home self-sampling COVID-19 tests, users in the UK are provided with incomplete, and, in some cases, misleading information on test accuracy, intended use, and test interpretation. Best practice guidance for communication about tests to the public should be developed and enforced for online sales of COVID-19 tests.

Summary: The SPIRIT 2013 statement aims to improve the completeness of clinical trial protocol reporting by providing evidence-based recommendations for the minimum set of items to be addressed. This guidance has been instrumental in promoting transparent evaluation of new interventions. More recently, there has been a growing recognition that interventions involving artificial intelligence (AI) need to undergo rigorous, prospective evaluation to demonstrate their impact on health outcomes. The SPIRIT-AI (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials-Artificial Intelligence) extension is a new reporting guideline for clinical trial protocols evaluating interventions with an AI component. It was developed in parallel with its companion statement for trial reports: CONSORT-AI (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials-Artificial Intelligence). Both guidelines were developed through a staged consensus process involving literature review and expert consultation to generate 26 candidate items, which were consulted upon by an international multi-stakeholder group in a two-stage Delphi survey (103 stakeholders), agreed upon in a consensus meeting (31 stakeholders) and refined through a checklist pilot (34 participants). The SPIRIT-AI extension includes 15 new items that were considered sufficiently important for clinical trial protocols of AI interventions. These new items should be routinely reported in addition to the core SPIRIT 2013 items. SPIRIT-AI recommends that investigators provide clear descriptions of the AI intervention, including instructions and skills required for use, the setting in which the AI intervention will be integrated, considerations for the handling of input and output data, the human–AI interaction and analysis of error cases. SPIRIT-AI will help promote transparency and completeness for clinical trial protocols for AI interventions. Its use will assist editors and peer reviewers, as well as the general readership, to understand, interpret, and critically appraise the design and risk of bias for a planned clinical trial.

Introduction: Patients with atrial fibrillation frequently suffer from heart failure despite having a normal ejection fraction. There is no proven therapy to improve physical capacity and quality of life in patients with permanent atrial fibrillation with preserved cardiac contractility. Objective: The IMproved exercise tolerance in heart failure with PReserved Ejection fraction by Spironolactone on myocardial fibrosiS in Atrial Fibrillation (IMPRESS-AF) trial addressed whether or not 2 years of treatment with spironolactone, as compared with placebo, improves exercise tolerance, quality of life and diastolic function in patients with permanent atrial fibrillation and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Design: A randomised, single-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Setting: Two hundred and fifty ambulatory patients [mean age 72.3 years (standard deviation 7.4 years); 23.6% female] with permanent atrial fibrillation and left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 55% [mean 60.5% (standard deviation 5.5%)]. Interventions: Treatment with either 25 mg of spironolactone (n = 125) or placebo (n = 125) daily. Main outcome measures: The primary efficacy end point was exercise tolerance at 2 years as measured by peak oxygen consumption (VO2) on cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Secondary end points were quality of life, the ratio of mitral peak velocity of early filling (E) to early diastolic mitral annular velocity (E′) (E/E′; a marker of diastolic dysfunction), all-cause hospital admissions and spontaneous return to sinus rhythm. Treatment effects were estimated by adjusting for baseline values. Study ethics: The study was approved by the National Research and Ethics Committee West Midlands – Coventry and Warwickshire (reference 14/WM/1211). All patients provided informed written consent. Results: There was no difference in the peak oxygen consumption at 2 years between the spironolactone group [analysed, n = 103; mean VO2 14.03 ml/minute/kg (standard deviation 5.38 ml/minute/kg)] and the placebo group [analysed, n = 106; mean VO2 14.45 ml/minute/kg (standard deviation 5.14 ml/minute/kg)] (adjusted treatment effect –0.28 ml/minute/kg, 95% confidence interval –1.27 to 0.71 ml/minute/kg; p = 0.58). The findings were consistent across all sensitivity analyses. For secondary efficacy end points, there was no significant change in the mean 6-minute walking distance (treatment effect –8.47 m, 95% confidence interval –31.87 to 14.93 m; p = 0.48). This also held true for the mean ratio of mitral peak velocity of early filling (E) to early diastolic mitral annular velocity (E′) (i.e. E/E′), a measure of left ventricular diastolic function (treatment effect –0.64, 95% confidence interval –1.48 to 0.20; p = 0.13). The study treatment was also not associated with a significant treatment effect for quality-of-life scores [p = 0.67 for the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version (EQ-5D-5L), questionnaire and p = 0.84 for the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure (MLWHF) questionnaire at 2 years]. The findings remained consistent after adjustment for age, sex and body mass index. Spontaneous return to sinus rhythm on electrocardiography, performed at 2 years, was uncommon in both study groups [4% (standard deviation 3.8%) in the placebo group and 8% (standard deviation 7.9%) in the spironolactone group; p = 0.21]. At least one hospitalisation for any reason was required by 15.3% of patients in the spironolactone group and 22.8% in the placebo group (p = 0.15; after adjustment for age, sex and body mass index, p = 0.12). The estimated glomerular filtration rate was reduced by 6 ml/minute/1.73 m2 at 2 years in patients allocated to spironolactone (with no reduction in those receiving placebo, resulting in a reduction in the p-value of the difference in the estimated glomerular filtration rate between patients in the spironolactone group and those in the placebo group of

Background: Interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) are blood tests recommended for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) infection. There is currently uncertainty about the role and clinical utility of IGRAs in the diagnostic workup of suspected active TB in routine NHS clinical practice. Objectives: To compare the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of T-SPOT.TB® (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) and QuantiFERON® TB GOLD In-Tube (Cellestis, Carnegie, VIC, Australia) for diagnosis of suspected active TB and to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of second-generation IGRAs. Design: Prospective within-patient comparative diagnostic accuracy study. Setting: Secondary care. Participants: Adults (aged ≥ 16 years) presenting as inpatients or outpatients at 12 NHS hospital trusts in London, Slough, Oxford, Leicester and Birmingham with suspected active TB. Interventions: The index tests [T-SPOT.TB and QuantiFERON GOLD In-Tube (QFT-GIT)] and new enzyme-linked immunospot assays utilising novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens (Rv3615c, Rv2654, Rv3879c and Rv3873) were verified against a composite reference standard applied by a panel of clinical experts blinded to IGRA results. Main outcome measures: Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were calculated to determine diagnostic accuracy. A decision tree model was developed to calculate the incremental costs and incremental health utilities [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] of changing from current practice to using an IGRA as an initial rule-out test. Results: A total of 363 patients had active TB (culture-confirmed and highly probable TB cases), 439 had no active TB and 43 had an indeterminate final diagnosis. Comparing T-SPOT.TB and QFT-GIT, the sensitivities [95% confidence interval (CI)] were 82.3% (95% CI 77.7% to 85.9%) and 67.3% (95% CI 62.1% to 72.2%), respectively, whereas specificities were 82.6% (95% CI 78.6% to 86.1%) and 80.4% (95% CI 76.1% to 84.1%), respectively. T-SPOT.TB was more sensitive than QFT-GIT (relative sensitivity 1.22, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.31; p

Background: Despite a recent decline in the annual incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the UK, rates remain higher than in most Western European countries. The detection and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) is an essential component of the UK TB control programme. Objectives: To assess the prognostic value and cost-effectiveness of the current two interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) compared with the standard tuberculin skin test (TST) for predicting active TB among untreated individuals at increased risk of TB: (1) contacts of active TB cases and (2) new entrants to the UK from high-TB-burden countries. Design: A prospective cohort study and economic analysis. Participants and setting: Participants were recruited in TB clinics, general practices and community settings. Contacts of active TB cases and migrants who were born in high-TB-burden countries arriving in the UK were eligible to take part if they were aged ≥ 16 years. Main outcome measures: Outcomes include incidence rate ratios comparing the incidence of active TB in those participants with a positive test result and those with a negative test result for each assay, and combination of tests and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for each screening strategy. Results: A total of 10,045 participants were recruited between May 2010 and July 2015. Among 9610 evaluable participants, 97 (1.0%) developed active TB. For the primary analysis, all test data were available for 6380 participants, with 77 participants developing active TB. A positive result for TSTa (positive if induration is ≥ 5 mm) was a significantly poorer predictor of progression to active TB than a positive result for any of the other tests. Compared with TSTb [positive if induration is ≥ 6 mm without prior bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) alone, T-SPOT®.TB (Oxford Immunotec Ltd, Oxford, UK), TSTa + T-SPOT.TB, TSTa + IGRA and the three combination strategies including TSTb were significantly superior predictors of progression. Compared with the T-SPOT.TB test alone, TSTa + T-SPOT.TB, TSTb + QuantiFERON® TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT; QIAGEN GmbH, Hilden, Germany) and TSTb + IGRA were significantly superior predictors of progression and, compared with QFT-GIT alone, T-SPOT.TB, TSTa + T-SPOT.TB, TSTa + QFT-GIT, TSTa + IGRA, TSTb + T-SPOT.TB, TSTb + QFT-GIT and TSTb + IGRA were significantly superior predictors of progression. When evaluating the negative predictive performance of tests and strategies, negative results for TSTa + QFT-GIT were significantly poorer predictors of non-progression than negative results for TSTa, T-SPOT.TB and TSTa + IGRA. The most cost-effective LTBI testing strategies are the dual-testing strategies. The cost and QALY differences between the LTBI testing strategies were small; in particular, QFT-GIT, TSTb + T-SPOT.TB and TSTb + QFT-GIT had very similar incremental net benefit estimates. Conclusion: This study found modest differences between tests, or combinations of tests, in identifying individuals who would go on to develop active TB. However, a two-step approach that combined TSTb with an IGRA was the most cost-effective testing option. Implications for practice and future research: The two-step TSTb strategy, which stratified the TST by prior BCG vaccination followed by an IGRA, was the most cost-effective approach. The limited ability of current tests to predict who will progress limits the clinical utility of tests. The implications of these results for the NHS England/Public Health England national TB screening programme for migrants should be investigated. Study registration: This study is registered as NCT01162265. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: Chronic pelvic pain (CPP) symptoms in women are variable and non-specific; establishing a differential diagnosis can be hard. A diagnostic laparoscopy is often performed, although a prior magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan may beneficial. Objectives: To estimate the accuracy and added value of MRI in making diagnoses of (1) idiopathic CPP and (2) the main gynaecological causes of CPP. To quantify the impact MRI can have on decision-making with respect to triaging for therapeutic laparoscopy and to conduct an economic evaluation. Design: Comparative test-accuracy study with cost-effectiveness modelling. Setting: Twenty-six UK-based hospitals. Participants: A total of 291 women with CPP. Methods: Pre-index information concerning the patient’s medical history, previous pelvic examinations and ultrasound scans was collected. Women reported symptoms and quality of life at baseline and 6 months. MRI scans and diagnostic laparoscopy (undertaken and interpreted blind to each other) were the index tests. For each potential cause of CPP, gynaecologists indicated their level of certainty that the condition was causing the pelvic pain. The analysis considered both diagnostic laparoscopy as a reference standard for observing structural gynaecological causes and consensus from a two-stage expert independent panel for ascertaining the cause of CPP. The stage 1 consensus was based on pre-index, laparoscopy and follow-up data; for stage 2, the MRI scan report was also provided. The primary analysis involved calculations of sensitivity and specificity for the presence or absence of each structural gynaecological cause of pain. A decision-analytic model was developed, with a 6-month time horizon. Two strategies, laparoscopy or MRI, were considered and populated with study data. Results: Using reference standards of laparoscopic and expert panel diagnoses, MRI scans had high specificity but poor sensitivity for observing deep-infiltrating endometriosis, endometrioma, adhesions and ovarian cysts. MRI scans correctly identified 56% [95% confidence interval (CI) 48% to 64%] of women judged to have idiopathic CPP, but missed 46% (95% CI 37% to 55%) of those considered to have a gynaecological structural cause of CPP. MRI added significant value, over and above the pre-index information, in identifying deep-infiltrating endometriosis (p = 0.006) and endometrioma (p = 0.02) as the cause of pain, but not for other gynaecological structural causes or for identifying idiopathic CPP (p = 0.08). Laparoscopy was significantly more accurate than MRI in diagnosing idiopathic CPP (p

Background: Protein biomarkers with associations with the activity and outcomes of diseases are being identified by modern proteomic technologies. They may be simple, accessible, cheap and safe tests that can inform diagnosis, prognosis, treatment selection, monitoring of disease activity and therapy and may substitute for complex, invasive and expensive tests. However, their potential is not yet being realised. Design and methods: The study consisted of three workstreams to create a framework for research: workstream 1, methodology – to define current practice and explore methodology innovations for biomarkers for monitoring disease; workstream 2, clinical translation – to create a framework of research practice, high-quality samples and related clinical data to evaluate the validity and clinical utility of protein biomarkers; and workstream 3, the ELF to Uncover Cirrhosis as an Indication for Diagnosis and Action for Treatable Event (ELUCIDATE) randomised controlled trial (RCT) – an exemplar RCT of an established test, the ADVIA Centaur® Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test (Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics Ltd, Camberley, UK) [consisting of a panel of three markers – (1) serum hyaluronic acid, (2) amino-terminal propeptide of type III procollagen and (3) tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1], for liver cirrhosis to determine its impact on diagnostic timing and the management of cirrhosis and the process of care and improving outcomes. Results: The methodology workstream evaluated the quality of recommendations for using prostate-specific antigen to monitor patients, systematically reviewed RCTs of monitoring strategies and reviewed the monitoring biomarker literature and how monitoring can have an impact on outcomes. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate monitoring and improve the merits of health care. The monitoring biomarker literature is modest and robust conclusions are infrequent. We recommend improvements in research practice. Patients strongly endorsed the need for robust and conclusive research in this area. The clinical translation workstream focused on analytical and clinical validity. Cohorts were established for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and renal transplantation (RT), with samples and patient data from multiple centres, as a rapid-access resource to evaluate the validity of biomarkers. Candidate biomarkers for RCC and RT were identified from the literature and their quality was evaluated and selected biomarkers were prioritised. The duration of follow-up was a limitation but biomarkers were identified that may be taken forward for clinical utility. In the third workstream, the ELUCIDATE trial registered 1303 patients and randomised 878 patients out of a target of 1000. The trial started late and recruited slowly initially but ultimately recruited with good statistical power to answer the key questions. ELF monitoring altered the patient process of care and may show benefits from the early introduction of interventions with further follow-up. The ELUCIDATE trial was an ‘exemplar’ trial that has demonstrated the challenges of evaluating biomarker strategies in ‘end-to-end’ RCTs and will inform future study designs. Conclusions: The limitations in the programme were principally that, during the collection and curation of the cohorts of patients with RCC and RT, the pace of discovery of new biomarkers in commercial and non-commercial research was slower than anticipated and so conclusive evaluations using the cohorts are few; however, access to the cohorts will be sustained for future new biomarkers. The ELUCIDATE trial was slow to start and recruit to, with a late surge of recruitment, and so final conclusions about the impact of the ELF test on long-term outcomes await further follow-up. The findings from the three workstreams were used to synthesise a strategy and framework for future biomarker evaluations incorporating innovations in study design, health economics and health informatics. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN74815110, UKCRN ID 9954 and UKCRN ID 11930. Funding: This project was funded by the NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 6, No. 3. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

ObjectiveTo compare the cost-effectiveness of bladder ultrasonography, clinical history, and urodynamic testing in guiding treatment decisions in a secondary care setting for women failing first line conservative treatment for overactive bladder or urgency-predominant mixed urinary incontinence.DesignModel-based economic evaluation from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective using data from the Bladder Ultrasound Study (BUS) and secondary sources.MethodsCost-effectiveness analysis using a decision tree and a 5-year time horizon based on the outcomes of cost per woman successfully treated and cost per Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and a value of information analysis are also undertaken.ResultsBladder ultrasonography is more costly and less effective test-treat strategy than clinical history and urodynamics. Treatment on the basis of clinical history alone has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £491,100 per woman successfully treated and an ICER of £60,200 per QALY compared with the treatment of all women on the basis of urodynamics. Restricting the use of urodynamics to women with a clinical history of mixed urinary incontinence only is the optimal test-treat strategy on cost-effectiveness grounds with ICERs of £19,500 per woman successfully treated and £12,700 per QALY compared with the treatment of all women based upon urodynamics. Conclusions remained robust to sensitivity analyses, but subject to large uncertainties.ConclusionsTreatment based upon urodynamics can be seen as a cost-effective strategy, and particularly when targeted at women with clinical history of mixed urinary incontinence only. Further research is needed to resolve current decision uncertainty.

Background: Urodynamics (UDS) has been considered the gold standard test for detrusor overactivity (DO) in women with an overactive bladder (OAB). Bladder ultrasonography to measure bladder wall thickness (BWT) is less invasive and has been proposed as an alternative test. Objectives: To estimate the reliability, reproducibility, accuracy and acceptability of BWT in women with OAB, measured by ultrasonography, in the diagnosis of DO; to explore the role of UDS and its impact on treatment outcomes; and to conduct an economic evaluation of alternative care pathways. Design: A cross-sectional test accuracy study. Setting: 22 UK hospitals. Participants: 687 women with OAB. Methods: BWT was measured using transvaginal ultrasonography, and DO was assessed using UDS, which was performed blind to ultrasonographic findings. Intraobserver and interobserver reproducibility were assessed by repeated measurements from scans in 37 and 57 women, respectively, and by repeated scans in 27 women. Sensitivity and specificity were computed at pre-specified thresholds. The smallest real differences detectable of BWT were estimated using one-way analysis of variance. The pain and acceptability of both tests were evaluated by a questionnaire. Patient symptoms were measured before testing and after 6 and 12 months using the International Consultation on Incontinence modular Questionnaire Overactive Bladder (short form) (ICIQ-OAB) questionnaire and a global impression of improvement elicited at 12 months. Interventions and patient outcomes were analysed according to urodynamic diagnoses and BWT measurements. A decision-analytic model compared the cost-effectiveness of care strategies using UDS, ultrasonography or clinical history, estimating the cost per woman successfully treated and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Results: BWT showed very low sensitivity and specificity at all pre-specified cut-off points, and there was no evidence of discrimination at any threshold (p = 0.25). Extensive sensitivity and subgroup analyses did not alter the interpretation of these findings. The smallest detectable difference in BWT was estimated to be 2 mm. Pain levels following both tests appeared relatively low. The proportion of women who found the test ‘totally acceptable’ was significantly higher with ultrasonography than UDS (81% vs. 56%; p

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Region-of-Difference-1 gene products present opportunities for specific diagnosis of M. tuberculosis infection, yet immune responses to only two gene-products, Early Secretory Antigenic Target-6 (ESAT-6) and Culture Filtrate Protein-10 (CFP-10), have been comprehensively investigated.T-cell responses to Rv3873, Rv3878 and Rv3879c were quantified by IFN-γ-enzyme-linked-immunospot (ELISpot) in 846 children with recent household tuberculosis exposure and correlated with kinetics of tuberculin skin test (TST) and ESAT-6/CFP-10-ELISpot conversion over six months and clinical outcome over two years.Responses to Rv3873, Rv3878, and Rv3879c were present in 20-25% of contacts at enrolment. Rv3873 and Rv3879c responses were associated with and preceded TST conversion (P=0.02 and P=0.04 respectively), identifying these antigens as early targets of cell-mediated immunity following M. tuberculosis exposure. Responses to Rv3873 were additionally associated with subsequent ESAT-6/CFP-10-ELISpot conversion (P=0.04). Responses to Rv3873 and Rv3878 predicted progression to active disease (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI] 3.06 [1.05,8.95; P=0.04], and 3.32 [1.14,9.71; P=0.03], respectively). Presence of a BCG-vaccination scar was associated with a 67% (P=0.03) relative risk reduction for progression to active tuberculosis.These RD1-derived antigens are early targets of cellular immunity following tuberculosis exposure and T-cells specific for these antigens predict progression to active tuberculosis suggesting diagnostic and prognostic utility.

The need for economical rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is increasing in developing countries. Implementation of the two currently approved economical intradermal (ID) vaccine regimens is restricted due to confusion over different vaccines, regimens and dosages, lack of confidence in intradermal technique, and pharmaceutical regulations. We therefore compared a simplified 4-site economical PEP regimen with standard methods.Two hundred and fifty-four volunteers were randomly allocated to a single blind controlled trial. Each received purified vero cell rabies vaccine by one of four PEP regimens: the currently accepted 2-site ID; the 8-site regimen using 0.05 ml per ID site; a new 4-site ID regimen (on day 0, approximately 0.1 ml at 4 ID sites, using the whole 0.5 ml ampoule of vaccine; on day 7, 0.1 ml ID at 2 sites and at one site on days 28 and 90); or the standard 5-dose intramuscular regimen. All ID regimens required the same total amount of vaccine, 60% less than the intramuscular method. Neutralising antibody responses were measured five times over a year in 229 people, for whom complete data were available.All ID regimens showed similar immunogenicity. The intramuscular regimen gave the lowest geometric mean antibody titres. Using the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test, some sera had unexpectedly high antibody levels that were not attributable to previous vaccination. The results were confirmed using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralisation method.This 4-site PEP regimen proved as immunogenic as current regimens, and has the advantages of requiring fewer clinic visits, being more practicable, and having a wider margin of safety, especially in inexperienced hands, than the 2-site regimen. It is more convenient than the 8-site method, and can be used economically with vaccines formulated in 1.0 or 0.5 ml ampoules. The 4-site regimen now meets all requirements of immunogenicity for PEP and can be introduced without further studies.Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN 30087513.