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Abstract ‘Early detection and rapid response’ (EDRR) is the most successful framework for preventative invasive species management, but prioritizing localized EDRR actions with limited resources is challenging. An approach that ranks individual locations, such as waterbodies, for EDRR by combining an invasive species' establishment risk with the practicality of managing it could help set reasonable priorities. Here, we worked with regional practitioners in Arkansas, USA, and the broader Southeastern USA to co‐produce a workflow for preventative aquatic invasive species management that (1) estimates establishment risk under current and future climates with a species distribution model, (2) scores waterbodies according to difficulty of eradicating an aquatic invasive species if it were introduced and (3) combines establishment risk and eradication difficulty scores to rank waterbodies according to preventative management priority. As our focal species, we used giant salvinia (Salvinia molesta), a floating aquatic fern ranked among the worst weeds in the world due to its negative socio‐ecological impacts and difficulty to eradicate once established. Current establishment risk is low for much of our study area, but under future climate scenarios (RCP 8.5), areas with >60% giant salvinia establishment risk increased from 546 km2 to 30,219 km2 between 2023 and 2040 in Arkansas. We found giant salvinia establishment risk and eradication difficulty are independent of each other (r = 0.28), and it follows that, alone, early detection tools such as species distribution models are insufficient for managers to prioritize sites for EDRR. Practical implication: We envision our approach fitting into a potential EDRR workflow that cascades from broad‐ to local‐scale. To illustrate, (1) horizon scanning and/or climate matching generates lists of high‐risk invasive species; (2) species lists are narrowed according to eradication feasibility scores; (3) for all remaining species, all waterbodies across a geography of interest receive prioritization rankings based on establishment risk and eradication difficulty scores. Given that climate change makes predicting invasive species' distributions a moving target, combining co‐produced eradication difficulty scoring with species distribution modelling will balance rigour with practicality when prioritizing locations for EDRR.

Abstract Human impacts on aquatic ecosystems have resulted in systemic declines of global freshwater species abundance and richness. Conservation and governmental groups worldwide have designated protected areas to preserve the remaining diversity. The biodiversity hotspot approach, which designates areas based on high levels of species richness, has been useful for identifying areas to protect both terrestrial and aquatic species. However, for freshwater species, additional approaches are warranted to identify specific stream reaches for protection and/or restoration. To address this issue, we present a methodology to create a Gridded River Identification System (GRIS) for river segments based on 30 arc‐second grids (~0.9 km) using the USGS National Hydrography High Resolution Dataset. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we obtained occurrence data for six imperiled freshwater mussel species in Texas and created ensemble species distribution models (ESDMs) based on climate and topographical variables. Predicted occupancies were overlayed onto the GRIS in Texas. The predicted occupancies were rank ordered from 1 to 5, with 1 being the lowest probability of occupancy and 5 being the greatest. The rank‐ordered segments were then used to identify reaches for conservation and restoration activities. Our approach is novel and widely applicable to other freshwater species so long as distribution information is available. The GRIS can also be easily developed for stream systems outside of the current study area. Future studies could build upon our framework by incorporating additional taxa data and projected changes in climate and land use.

Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models, but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study, an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights, and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method, and the major research areas that models impact are identified.

Abstract Background Dry eye disease (DED) is a common disease in ophthalmology, affecting millions of people worldwide. Recent studies have shown that inflammation is the core mechanism of DED. IL-20 is a proinflammatory cytokine involved in various inflammatory diseases. Therefore, we aimed to explore the role of this cytokine in the pathogenesis of DED and evaluate the therapeutic potential of the anti-IL-20 monoclonal antibody (mAb) 7E for DED treatment. Methods Clinical tear samples from patients with DED and non-DED controls were collected and their IL-20 protein levels were determined. We established three DED animal models to explore the role of IL-20 and the efficacy of IL-20 antibody in DED. Benzalkonium chloride (BAC)-induced over-evaporative DED, extra-orbital lacrimal gland excision (LGE)-induced aqueous tear-deficient DED, and desiccating stress (DS)-induced combined over-evaporative and aqueous tear-deficient DED animal models were established to investigate the role of IL-20. The anti-IL-20 antibody 7E was established to neutralize IL-20 activity. The effects of IL-20 or 7E on human corneal epithelial cells and macrophages under hyperosmotic stress were analyzed. 7E was topically applied to eyes to evaluate the therapeutic effects in the DED animal models. Results IL-20 was significantly upregulated in the tears of patients with DED and in the tears and corneas of DED animal models. Under hyperosmotic stress, IL-20 expression was induced via NFAT5 activation in corneal epithelial cells. 7E suppressed hyperosmotic stress-induced activation of macrophages. IL-20 induced cell death in corneal epithelial cells and 7E protected cells from hyperosmotic stress-induced cell death. Blocking IL-20 signaling with 7E protected mice from BAC-induced, LGE-induced, and DS-induced DED by reducing DED symptoms and inhibiting inflammatory responses, macrophage infiltration, apoptosis, and Th17 populations in the conjunctiva and draining lymph nodes. Conclusions Our results demonstrated the functions of IL-20 in DED and presented a potential therapeutic option for this condition. Graphical Abstract

Tularemia is a rare but potentially serious bacterial zoonosis, which has been reported in the 47 contiguous states of the USA during 2001–2010. This report summarizes the passive surveillance data of tularemia cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2011 through 2019. There were 1984 cases reported in the USA during this period. The average national incidence was 0.07 cases per 100,000 person-years (PY), compared to 0.04 cases per 100,000 PY during 2001–2010. The highest statewide reported case 2011–2019 was in Arkansas (374 cases, 20.4% of total), followed by Missouri (13.1%), Oklahoma (11.9%), and Kansas (11.2%). Regarding race, ethnicity, and sex, tularemia cases were reported more frequently among white, non-Hispanic, and male patients. Cases were reported in all age groups; however, individuals 65 years-old and older exhibited the highest incidence. The seasonal distribution of cases generally paralleled the seasonality of tick activity and human outdoor activity, increasing during spring through mid-summer and decreasing through late summer and fall to winter lows. Improved surveillance and education of ticks and tick- and water-borne pathogens should play a key role in efforts to decrease the incidence of tularemia in the USA.

Many species of plants and animals thrive in urban habitats and stand to gain from the global trend in increased urbanization. One such species, the Red-crowned Parrot (Amazona viridigenalis), is endangered within its native range but seems to thrive in urban landscapes. While populations of endangered synanthropic species may be uncommon, they can act as genetic reservoirs and present us with unique conservation and research opportunities. We sought to determine the red-crowned parrot’s level of dependency on urban areas, as well as the climatic and anthropogenic drivers of their distribution throughout the United States. We built national level species distribution models for the USA using Maxent and correlated presence points derived from field work and citizen science databases to environmental variables for three Red-crowned Parrot populations: two naturalized (California and Florida) and one native (Texas). We found current occupancy to be 18,965 km2 throughout the three states. These three states also contained 39,429 km2 of high- and medium-quality habitats, which, if occupied, would represent a substantial increase in the species range. Suitable habitat showed a strong positive correlation with urbanization in areas where average monthly temperatures were at least 5 °C. The current and predicted distributions of Red-crowned Parrots were closely aligned with urban boundaries. We expected populations of Red-crowned Parrots and other synanthropic species to grow due to a combination of factors, namely, continued urbanization and the effects of climate change, which increase the size and connectivity of a suitable habitat. For some imperiled species, urban habitats could prove to be important bastions for their conservation.

Abstract Background Cattle fever ticks (CFT), Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and R. (B.) microplus, are vectors of microbes causing bovine babesiosis and pose a threat to the economic viability of the US livestock industry. Efforts by the Cattle Fever Tick Eradication Program (CFTEP) along the US-Mexico border in south Texas are complicated by the involvement of alternate hosts, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus). Methods In the present study, we use a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the potential effects of host species composition and host habitat use patterns on southern cattle fever ticks (SCFT, R. (B.) microplus) infestation dynamics and efficacy of eradication schemes. Results In simulations without eradication efforts, mean off-host larval densities were much higher when cattle were present than when only white-tailed deer and nilgai were present. Densities in mesquite and meadows were slightly higher, and densities in mixed brush were much lower, than landscape-level densities in each of these scenarios. In eradication simulations, reductions in mean off-host larval densities at the landscape level were much smaller when acaricide was applied to cattle only, or to cattle and white-tailed deer, than when applied to cattle and nilgai. Relative density reductions in mesquite, mixed brush, and meadows depended on host habitat use preferences. Shifting nilgai habitat use preferences increasingly toward mixed brush and away from mesquite did not change mean off-host larval tick densities noticeably at the landscape level. However, mean densities were increased markedly in mesquite and decreased markedly in mixed brush, while no noticeable change in density was observed in meadows. Conclusions Our results suggest that continued integration of field data into spatially explicit, individual-based models will facilitate the development of novel eradication strategies and will allow near-real-time infestation forecasts as an aid in anticipating and preventing wildlife-mediated impacts on SCFT eradication efforts.

Abstract Background Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (southern cattle fever tick; SCFT), collectively known as cattle-fever ticks (CFTs), are vectors of protozoal parasites (Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) that cause bovine babesiosis (also known as cattle fever). One traditional strategy for CFT eradication involves the implementation of a “pasture vacation,” which involves removing cattle (Bos taurus) from an infested pasture for an extended period of time. However, vacated pastures are often inhabited by wildlife hosts, such as white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus), which can serve as alternate hosts for questing CFTs. We hypothesized that the distribution of host-seeking larvae among habitat types post-pasture vacation would reflect habitat use patterns of WTD, and in turn, affect the subsequent rate of pasture infestation by CFT. Methods We adapted a spatially explicit, individual-based model to simulate interactions among SCFT, cattle, and WTD as a tool to investigate the potential effects of WTD habitat use preferences on the efficacy of a pasture vacation. We parameterized the model to represent conditions typical of rangelands in south Texas, USA, simulated a 1-year pasture vacation under different assumptions regarding WTD habitat use preferences, and summarized effects on efficacy through (1) time post-vacation to reach 100% of pre-vacation densities of host-seeking larvae, and (2) the ecological conditions that resulted in the lowest host-seeking larval densities following pasture vacation. Results Larval densities at the landscape scale varied seasonally in a similar manner over the entire simulation period, regardless of WTD habitat use preferences. Following the removal of cattle, larval densities declined sharply to 60% of pre-vacation densities ≈ 21 weeks post-vacation, and reached pre-vacation levels in less than a year. Trends in larval densities in different habitat types paralleled those at the landscape scale over the entire simulation period, but differed quantitatively from one another during the pasture vacation. Relative larval densities (highest to lowest) shifted from (1) wood/shrub, (2) grass, (3) mixed-brush during the pre-vacation period to (1) mixed-brush, (2) wood/shrub, (3) grass or (1) wood/shrub, (2) mixed-brush, (3) grass during the post-vacation period, depending on WTD habitat use preferences. Conclusions By monitoring WTD-driven shifts in distributions of SCFT host-seeking larvae among habitat types during simulated pasture vacation experiments, we were able to identify potential SCFT refugia from which recrudescence of infestations could originate. Such information could inform timely applications of acaricides to specific refugia habitats immediately prior to the termination of pasture vacations.

Abstract Background Some tick species are invasive and of high consequence to public and veterinary health. Socioeconomic development of rural parts of the USA was enabled partly through the eradication by 1943 of cattle fever ticks (CFT, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and R. (B.) microplus). The southern cattle fever ticks (SCFT, R. (B.) microplus) remain a real and present threat to the USA animal agriculture because they are established in Mexico. Livestock-wildlife interactions in the Permanent Quarantine Zone (PQZ) established by the century-old Cattle Fever Tick Eradication Programme (CFTEP) in south Texas endanger its operations. Methods We describe a spatially-explicit, individual-based model that simulates interactions between cattle, white-tailed deer (WTD, Odocoileus virginianus), and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus) to assess the risk for SCFT infestations across the pathogenic landscape in the PQZ and beyond. We also investigate the potential role of nilgai in sustaining SCFT populations by simulating various hypothetical infestation and eradication scenarios. Results All infestation scenarios resulted in a phase transition from a relatively small proportion of the ranch infested to almost the entire ranch infested coinciding with the typical period of autumn increases in off-host tick larvae. Results of eradication scenarios suggest that elimination of all on-host ticks on cattle, WTD, or nilgai would have virtually no effect on the proportion of the ranch infested or on the proportions of different tick habitat types infested; the entire ranch would remain infested. If all on-host ticks were eliminated on cattle and WTD, WTD and nilgai, or cattle and nilgai, the proportions of the ranch infested occasionally would drop to 0.6, 0.6 and 0.2, respectively. Differences in proportions of the ranch infested from year to year were due to primarily to differences in winter weather conditions, whereas infestation differences among tick habitat types were due primarily to habitat use preferences of hosts. Conclusions Infestations in nilgai augment SCFT refugia enabled by WTD and promote pest persistence across the landscape and cattle parasitism. Our study documented the utility of enhanced biosurveillance using simulation tools to mitigate risk and enhance operations of area-wide tick management programmes like the CFTEP through integrated tactics for SCFT suppression.

Multivariate mixtures are encountered in situations where the data are repeated or clustered measurements in the presence of heterogeneity among the observations with unknown proportions. In such situations, the main interest may be not only in estimating the component parameters, but also in obtaining reliable estimates of the mixing proportions. In this paper, we propose an empirical likelihood approach combined with a novel dimension reduction procedure for estimating parameters of a two-component multivariate mixture model. The performance of the new method is compared to fully parametric as well as almost nonparametric methods used in the literature.

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax in humans, livestock, and wildlife, exists in a community with hundreds of other species of bacteria in the environment. Work on the genetics of these communities has shown that B. anthracis shares a high percentage of chromosomal genes with both B. thuringiensis and B. cereus, and that phenotypic differences among these bacteria can result from extra-chromosomal DNA in the form of plasmids. We developed a simple hypothetical individual-based model to simulate the likelihood of detecting plasmids with genes encoding anthrax toxins within bacterial communities composed of B. anthracis, B. thuringiensis, and B. cereus, and the surrounding matrix of extra-cellular polymeric substances. Simulation results suggest the horizontal transfer of plasmids with genes encoding anthrax toxins among Bacillus species persisting outside the host could function as a proximate factor triggering anthrax outbreaks.

Negative impacts from aquatic invasive plants in the United States include economic costs, loss of commercial and recreational use, and environmental damage. Simulation models are valuable tools for predicting the invasion potentials of species and for the management of existing infestations. We developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model representing the invasion, growth, and senescence of aquatic weeds as functions of day length, water temperature, water depth, and the response of aquatic weeds to biological control. As a case study to evaluate its potential utility, we parameterized the model to represent two historical invasions (1975–1983 and 2004–2007) of Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L. fil.) Royle) in Lake Conroe, Texas, USA, and their subsequent biological control using grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). Results of several hypothetical alternative management schemes indicated that grass carp stocking densities needed to control Hydrilla infestation increased exponentially as the lag time between initial invasion and initial stocking increased, whereas stocking densities needed to control infestation decreased as the amount of time allowed to control the infestation increased. Predictions such as those produced by our model aid managers in developing proactive management plans for areas most likely to be invaded.

Abstract Background Animal use is a dynamic phenomenon, emerging from the movements of animals responding to a changing environment. Interactions between animals are reflected in patterns of joint space use, which are also dynamic. High frequency sampling associated with GPS telemetry provides detailed data that capture space use through time. However, common analyses treat joint space use as static over relatively long periods, masking potentially important changes. Furthermore, linking temporal variation in interactions to covariates remains cumbersome. We propose a novel method for analyzing the dynamics of joint space use that permits straightforward incorporation of covariates. This method builds upon tools commonly used by researchers, including kernel density estimators, utilization distribution intersection metrics, and extensions of linear models. Methods We treat the intersection of the utilization distributions of two individuals as a time series. The series is linked to covariates using copula-based marginal beta regression, an alternative to generalized linear models. This approach accommodates temporal autocorrelation and the bounded nature of the response variable. Parameters are easily estimated with maximum likelihood and trend and error structures can be modeled separately. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing simulated data from two hypothetical individuals with known utilization distributions, as well as field data from two coyotes (Canis latrans) responding to appearance of a carrion resource in southern Texas. Results Our analysis of simulated data indicated reasonably precise estimates of joint space use can be achieved with commonly used GPS sampling rates (s.e.=0.029 at 150 locations per interval). Our analysis of field data identified an increase in spatial interactions between the coyotes that persisted for the duration of the study, beyond the expected duration of the carrion resource. Our analysis also identified a period of increased spatial interactions before appearance of the resource, which would not have been identified by previous methods. Conclusions We present a new approach to the analysis of joint space use through time, building upon tools commonly used by ecologists, that permits a new level of detail in the analysis of animal interactions. The results are easily interpretable and account for the nuances of bounded serial data in an elegant way.

Abstract Background The southern cattle fever tick (SCFT), Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, remains endemic in Puerto Rico. Systematic treatment programmes greatly reduced and even eradicated temporarily this tick from the island. However, a systemic treatment programme that includes integrated management practices for livestock against SCFT remains to be established in the island. We describe a spatially-explicit, individual-based model that simulates climate–livestock–SCFT–landscape interactions. This model was developed as an investigative tool to aid in a research project on integrated management of the SCFT that took place in Puerto Rico between 2014 and 2017. We used the model to assess the efficacy of tick suppression and probability of tick elimination when applying safer acaricides at 3-week intervals to different proportions of a herd of non-lactating dairy cattle. Results Probabilities of eliminating host-seeking larvae from the simulated system decreased from ≈ 1 to ≈ 0 as the percentage of cattle treated decreased from 65 to 45, with elimination probabilities ≈ 1 at higher treatment percentages and ≈ 0 at lower treatment percentages. For treatment percentages between 65% and 45%, a more rapid decline in elimination probabilities was predicted by the version of the model that produced higher densities of host-seeking larvae. Number of weeks after the first acaricide application to elimination of host-seeking larvae was variable among replicate simulations within treatment percentages, with within-treatment variation increasing markedly at treatment percentages ≤ 65. Number of weeks after first application to elimination generally varied between 30 and 40 weeks for those treatment percentages with elimination probabilities ≈ 1. Conclusions Explicit simulation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of off-host (host-seeking) larvae in response to control methods should be an essential element of research that involves the evaluation of integrated SCFT management programmes. This approach could provide the basis to evaluate novel control technologies and to develop protocols for their cost-effective use with other treatment methods.

We used a spatially explicit model to simulate the potential effects of exclosures and acaricides targeted at medium-sized mammalian hosts on the local distribution and abundance of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) within forestlands of the southeastern United States. Both exclosures and acaricides were successful in markedly reducing the densities of all off-host tick life stages inside the treatment areas. Densities dropped to almost zero immediately inside the edges of the exclosures, with noticeably depressed densities extending outward 30 to 60 m from the exclosures, and the simulated exclosures maintained their effectiveness as their sizes were decreased from 4.5 to 2.25 to 0.8 ha. Densities exhibited a smooth gradient across the edges of the acaricide-treated areas, with depressed densities extending ≈100 m outward from the edges, but with perceptible densities extending ≈60 m inward from the edges; thus, the simulated acaricide areas lost their effectiveness as size was decreased to slightly less than one-half the diameter of the activity range of the targeted host. Our simulation results indicated that off-host nymph densities responded to reductions of medium-sized host densities. These results suggest that targeting acaricides at medium-sized hosts may be an effective, and currently under-utilized, method for tick suppression.

Background: Interleukin-24 (IL-24) binds to two kinds of receptor complexes, namely IL-20R1/IL-20R2 and IL-20R2/IL-22R1, which are also bound by IL-20. IL-20 plays a detrimental role in liver fibrosis. Due to the sharing of receptor complexes, we aimed to determine whether IL-24 also participates in liver fibrosis. Methods: Clinical biopsy specimens from various stages of liver fibrosis were used to analyze IL-24 expression. IL-24 protein was administered to mice with thioacetamide (TAA)-induced liver injury. The direct effects of IL-24 on mouse primary hepatocytes or hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) were analyzed. Wild-type, IL-20R1-, and IL20R2-deficient mice were used to establish a model of acute TAA-induced liver injury. Findings: Among patients with more severe liver fibrosis, there was a reduced IL-24/IL-20 ratio. Administration of IL-24 protein protected mice from TAA-induced liver injury and reduction of liver inflammation by antioxidant effects. IL-24 protected hepatocytes from TAA-induced apoptosis and prevented liver fibrosis through the inhibition of the HSCs activation. The protective role of IL-24 acted on liver cells were mainly IL-20R1-independent. IL-20R2-deficient mice exhibited more severe liver injury upon TAA treatment, thus confirming the protective role of IL-24. Interpretation: IL-24 plays a key protective role in the progression of liver injury and has therapeutic potential for treating liver injuries. Funding: This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan (MOST 106–2320-B-006–024) and Taiwan Liver Disease Prevention & Treatment Research Foundation.

Abstract Background Invasions by non-native plants contribute to loss of ecosystem biodiversity and productivity, modification of biogeochemical cycles, and inhibition of natural regeneration of native species. Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum (Trin.) A. Campus) is one of the most prevalent invasive grasses in the forestlands of Tennessee, United States. We measured the extent of invasion, identified potential factors affecting invasion, and quantified the relative importance of each factor. We analyzed field data collected by the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the U.S. Forest Service to measure the extent of invasion from 2005 to 2011 and identified potential factors affecting invasion during this period using boosted regression trees. Results Our results indicated that presence of Japanese stiltgrass on sampled plots increased 50% (from 269 to 404 plots) during the time period. The probability of invasion was correlated with one landscape condition (elevation) (20.5%) and five forest features (including tree species diversity, basal area, stand age, site productivity, and natural regeneration) (79.5%). Boosted regression trees identified the most influential (highly correlated) variables as tree species diversity (30.7%), basal area (22.9%), elevation (20.5%), and stand age (16.7%). Our results suggest that Japanese stiltgrass is likely to continue its invasion in Tennessee forests. Conclusions The present model, in addition to correlating the probability of Japanese stiltgrass invasions with current climatic conditions and landscape attributes, could aid in the on-going development of control strategies for confronting Japanese stiltgrass invasions by identifying vulnerable areas that might emerge as a result of likely changes in climatic conditions and land use patterns.

Abstract Background Millions of people around the world suffer from bone disorders, likes osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and cancer-induced osteolysis. In general, the bone remodeling balance is determined by osteoclasts and osteoblasts, respectively responsible for bone resorption and bone formation. Excessive inflammation disturbs the activities of these two kinds of cells, typically resulting in the bone loss. Main body IL-20 is emerging as a potent angiogenic, chemotactic, and proinflammatory cytokine related to several chronic inflammatory disorders likes psoriasis, atherosclerosis, cancer, liver fibrosis, and RA. IL-20 has an important role in the regulation of osteoclastogenesis and osteoblastogenesis and is upregulated in several bone-related diseases. The anti-IL-20 monoclonal antibody treatment has a therapeutic potential in several experimental disease models including ovariectomy-induced osteoporosis, cancer-induced osteolysis, and bone fracture. Conclusion This review article provides an overview describing the IL-20’s biological functions in the common bone disorders and thus providing a novel therapeutic strategy in the future.

Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class based on the IUCN Red List. Their decline has been linked to anthropogenic activities, with wildfires being among the most conspicuous agents of habitat alterations affecting native amphibians. In 2011, the most destructive wildfire in Texas history occurred in the Lost Pines ecoregion of central Texas, USA, burning 39% of the 34,400 ha forest and drastically decreasing available habitats for many native wildlife species, including the green tree frog (Hyla cinerea). We investigated use of PVC pipes as artificial refuges for green tree frogs in different habitats within this post-fire pine forest. We monitored green tree frog use of small (diameter 38.1-mm, 1.5 inch) and large (diameter 50.8-mm, 2 inch) pipes located adjacent to, and 5 m from, ponds in burned and unburned areas over a 5-month period. We caught 227 frogs, 101 (24 adults and 77 juveniles) in burned and 126 (61 adults, 63 juveniles, and 2 unknown) in unburned areas. A relationship between pipe use by adults and/or juveniles and pipe location in burned versus unburned areas was found, but pipe use by adults and/or juveniles and pipe size were independent. Pipe use by adults and/or juveniles and pipe size were also independent. Juveniles were more frequently observed in pipes located adjacent to ponds. Our results confirmed that PVC pipes merit consideration as a simple, inexpensive, conservation tool to aid in restoration of green tree frog populations after high-severity wildfires. Such artificial refuges may be particularly important for survival of juveniles in severely altered post-fire habitats.

BACKGROUND:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly disease transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes on the Indian subcontinent, with a promising means of vector control being orally treating cattle with fipronil-based drugs. While prior research investigating the dynamic relationship between timing of fipronil-based control schemes and the seasonality of sand flies provides insights into potential of treatment on a large scale, ecological uncertainties remain. We investigated how uncertainties associated with sand fly ecology might affect our ability to assess efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes. To do this, we used a previously-described, individual-based, stochastic sand fly model to quantify how uncertainties associated with 1) the percentage of female sand flies taking blood meals from cattle, and 2) the percentage of female sand flies ovipositing in organic matter containing feces from treated cattle might impact the efficacy of fipronil-based sand fly control schemes. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Assuming no prior knowledge of sand fly blood meal and oviposition sites, the probabilities of achieving effective sand fly population reduction with treatments performed 3, 6 and 12 times per year were ≈5-22%, ≈27-36%, and ≈46-54%, respectively. Assuming ≥50% of sand flies feed on cattle, probabilities of achieving efficacious control increased to ≈8-31%, ≈15-42%, and ≈52-65%. Assuming also that ≥50% of sand flies oviposit in cattle feces, the above probabilities increased further to ≈14-53%, ≈31-81%, and ≈89-97%. CONCLUSIONS:Our assessments of the efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatments in controlling sand fly populations depend on our assumptions regarding key aspects of sand fly ecology. Assessments are most sensitive to assumptions concerning the percentage of sand flies ovipositing in feces of treated cattle, thus emphasizing the importance of identifying sand fly oviposition sites. Our results place the evaluation of fipronil-based cattle treatment within a broader ecological context, which could aid in the planning and execution of a largescale field trial.

In an effort to address challenges arising out of traditional forms of public participation, several alternative strategies for encouraging stakeholder engagement in conservation have been implemented. The role of social learning in addressing these ecological complexities has gained increasing attention in natural resource management over the last decade. Social learning forms the backbone of any collaborative conceptual modeling of complex human–environmental systems. Collaborative modeling, grounded in social learning theory, is the practice of building models with rather than for stakeholders. By enabling stakeholders to co-design and/or make joint decisions within the modeling process, collaboration manifests itself as cooperation and joint action through interactive, iterative, and reflective processes. Using a case study conducted in East Sikkim, India, we hypothesize that in situations where opportunities for formal environmental education are limited, and avenues for meaningful stakeholder engagement are few, collaborative modeling can help create a platform where stakeholders have meaningful opportunities to engage, learn, share, and (re)negotiate with a focus on joint problem solving. In particular, we engaged stakeholders in an iterative collaborative modeling process in an attempt to enable them to (1) openly interact with each other, (2) build trust, (3) unfold mutual interdependencies through social learning and thus see themselves as part of a complex human-dominated ecosystem, and (4) build and translate these shared visions toward collaborative forest management in the region. Using Senecah's Trinity of Voice as an analytical framework, we further examined how participation in the collaborative modeling process provided stakeholders with access, standing, and influence—the three critical dimensions of “voice.” Our results demonstrate that the collaborative modeling process enabled key stakeholders to unfold mutual interdependencies, and opened spaces for critical thinking, knowledge (re)creation, sharing, and trust building. By moving beyond narrow technical strategies for conservation, the collaborative modeling process helped create a platform that provided stakeholders with voice—a chance to share their environmental knowledge, experiences, and joint visions toward addressing and managing the growing uncertainties of complex human-dominated systems.

BACKGROUND:Temperature is an important factor that influences the biology and ecology of intermediate host (IH) snails and the schistosome parasites they transmit. Although temperature shifts due to climate change has been predicted to affect the life history traits of IH snails and parasite production, the mechanisms of how this may affect parasite abundance and disease risks are still not clear. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Using data from laboratory and field experiments, we developed a deterministic compartmental simulation model based on difference equations using a weekly time step that represented the life cycle of Bulinus globosus. We simulated snail population dynamics and the associated production of cercariae assuming current environmental temperatures as well as projected temperature increases of 1 °C and 2 °C. RESULTS:The model generated snail fecundity and survival rates similar to those observed in the laboratory and also produced reasonable snail population dynamics under seasonally varying temperatures representative of generally favorable environmental conditions. Simulated relative abundances of both snails and cercariae decreased with increasing environmental temperatures, with maximum snail abundances decreased by 14% and 27%, and maximum cercariae productions decreased by 8% and 17%, when temperatures were increased by 1 °C and 2 °C, respectively. CONCLUSION:The results indicate that future rise in temperature due to climate change may alter the abundance of B. globosus and impact on the prevalence of schistosomiasis. Furthermore, increased temperatures may not linearly influence the abundance of S. haematobium. These results may have important implications for schistosomiasis control programmes in view of temperature driven changes in the life history traits of B. globosus and S. haematobium. Our study recommends that the use of deterministic models incorporating the effects of temperature on the life history traits of IH snails would be vital in understanding the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis incidences and prevalence.

Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense) was the most prevalent invasive shrub in the forestlands of Eastern Texas in 2006. We analyzed extensive field data collected by the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the U.S. Forest Service to quantify the range expansion of Chinese privet from 2006 to 2011. Our results indicated the presence of Chinese privet on sampled plots increased during this period. Chinese privet spread extensively in the north. Results of logistic regression, which classified 73% of the field plots correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion was correlated positively with elevation, adjacency (within 300 m) to water bodies, and site productivity, and was correlated negatively with stand age, site preparation (including clearing, slash burning, chopping, disking, bedding, and other practices clearly intended to prepare a site for regeneration), artificial regeneration (which refers to planting or direct seeding that results in at least 50% of the stand being comprised of stocked trees), and distance to the nearest road. Habitats most at risk to further invasion (likelihood of invasion > 40%) under current conditions occurred primarily in Northeast Texas. Practicing site preparation and artificial regeneration reduced the estimated probabilities of further invasion.

BACKGROUND:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a disease caused by two known vector-borne parasite species (Leishmania donovani, L. infantum), transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies (species: Phlebotomus and Lutzomyia), resulting in ≈50,000 human fatalities annually, ≈67% occurring on the Indian subcontinent. Indoor residual spraying is the current method of sand fly control in India, but alternative means of vector control, such as the treatment of livestock with systemic insecticide-based drugs, are being evaluated. We describe an individual-based, stochastic, life-stage-structured model that represents a sand fly vector population within a village in India and simulates the effects of vector control via fipronil-based drugs orally administered to cattle, which target both blood-feeding adults and larvae that feed on host feces. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:Simulation results indicated efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes in reducing sand fly abundance depended on timing of drug applications relative to seasonality of the sand fly life cycle. Taking into account cost-effectiveness and logistical feasibility, two of the most efficacious treatment schemes reduced population peaks occurring from April through August by ≈90% (applications 3 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in March) and >95% (applications 6 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in January) relative to no control, with the cumulative number of sand fly days occurring April-August reduced by ≈83% and ≈97%, respectively, and more specifically during the summer months of peak human exposure (June-August) by ≈85% and ≈97%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Our model should prove useful in a priori evaluation of the efficacy of fipronil-based drugs in controlling leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent and beyond.

Freshwater turtles are being exploited for meat, eggs, traditional medicine, and pet trade. As a response, turtle farming became a booming aquaculture industry in the past two decades, specifically in the southeastern states of the United States of America (US) and across Southeast Asia. However, US turtle farms are currently producing turtles only for the pet trade while commercial trappers remain focused on catching the largest individuals from the wild. In our analyses we have created a biological and economic model that describes farming operations on a representative turtle farm in Louisiana. We first modeled current production of hatchling and yearling red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans) (i.e., traditional farming) for foreign and domestic pet markets, respectively. We tested the possibility of harvesting adult turtles from the breeding stock for sale to meat markets to enable alternative markets for the farmers, while decreasing the continued pressures on wild populations (i.e., non-traditional farming). Our economic model required current profit requirements of ~$13/turtle or ~$20.31/kg of meat from non-traditional farming in order to acquire the same profit as traditional farming, a value which currently exceeds market values of red-eared sliders. However, increasing competition with Asian turtle farms and decreasing hatchling prices may force the shift in the US toward producing turtles for meat markets. In addition, our model can be modified and applied to more desirable species on the meat market once more knowledge is acquired about species life histories and space requirements under farmed conditions.

Zoonoses from wildlife threaten global public health. Hendra virus is one of several zoonotic viral diseases that have recently emerged from Pteropus species fruit-bats (flying-foxes). Most hypotheses regarding persistence of Hendra virus within flying-fox populations emphasize horizontal transmission within local populations (colonies) via urine and other secretions, and transmission among colonies via migration. As an alternative hypothesis, we explore the role of recrudescence in persistence of Hendra virus in flying-fox populations via computer simulation using a model that integrates published information on the ecology of flying-foxes, and the ecology and epidemiology of Hendra virus. Simulated infection patterns agree with infection patterns observed in the field and suggest that Hendra virus could be maintained in an isolated flying-fox population indefinitely via periodic recrudescence in a manner indistinguishable from maintenance via periodic immigration of infected individuals. Further, post-recrudescence pulses of infectious flying-foxes provide a plausible basis for the observed seasonal clustering of equine cases. Correct understanding of the infection dynamics of Hendra virus in flying-foxes is fundamental to effectively managing risk of infection in horses and humans. Given the lack of clear empirical evidence on how the virus is maintained within populations, the role of recrudescence merits increased attention.

Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and control. We simulated management strategies including (1) no control (NC), and control beginning as soon as the percentage of invaded forest land exceeded (2) 60 (Low Control), (3) 25 (Medium Control), or (4) 0 (High Control) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, bioeconomic model. With NC, simulated invasions spread northward and westward into Arkansas and along the Gulf of Mexico to occupy ≈1.2 million hectares within 20 years, with associated expected total costs increasing exponentially to ≈$300 million. With LC, MC, and HC, invaded areas reached ≈275, 34, and 2 thousand hectares after 20 years, respectively, with associated expected costs reaching ≈$400, $230, and $200 million. Complete eradication would not be cost-effective; the minimum expected total cost was achieved when control began as soon as the percentage of invaded land exceeded 5%. These results suggest the importance of early detection and control of Chinese tallow, and emphasize the importance of integrating spread dynamics and economics to manage invasive species.