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Qiang Shi,1 Shanlian Hu,2 Wesley E Furnback,3 Gregory F Guzauskas,3 Jiejing Shen,1 Bruce CM Wang3 1Lilly Suzhou Pharmaceutical Company, Ltd., Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 2Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 3Elysia Group, Ltd., Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China Background: Eli Lilly and the China Primary Health Care Foundation are currently implementing a patient assistance program (PAP) in China, which allows first-line nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who complete four cycles of pemetrexed induction therapy to receive free, continuous pemetrexed maintenance therapy.Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of pemetrexed maintenance therapy vs basic standard care (BSC) and the economic impacts of providing a PAP for pemetrexed maintenance therapy to NSCLC patients who have completed pemetrexed induction therapy in a Chinese health care setting.Methods: We developed a novel decision-analytic model to evaluate the long-term costs and clinical efficacy of pemetrexed plus BSC vs BSC alone. We utilized a three-state (progression-free survival, progressed disease, and dead) partition survival model for both the clinical and economic aspects of the analysis. Cost and health utility estimates were derived from the literature. We performed a scenario analysis to estimate the real-world impact of introducing the PAP in China by comparing the use of the PAP vs non-PAP. Model uncertainty was evaluated using one-way and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: Compared to BSC, pemetrexed plus BSC resulted in a gain of 0.22 years of life (95% credible range [CR]: 0.04–0.46) and 0.13 quality-adjusted life years (95% CR: 0.04–0.26) per patient, at an increased cost of $28,105 (95% CR: −$22,720 to $48,646) without a PAP and $3,068 (95% CR: −$1,263 to $9,163) with a PAP. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for pemetrexed plus BSC vs BSC alone was cost-prohibitive at $222,700 for non-PAP, but cost-effective at $24,319 with a PAP.Conclusion: Our study suggests that maintenance pemetrexed therapy following pemetrexed induction for patients with advanced NSCLC is likely to be highly non-cost-effective in the absence of a PAP, but the pending implementation of the PAP promises to make it cost-effective, with a >90% probability of cost-effectiveness at a Chinese willingness-to-pay threshold per quality-adjusted life year. Keywords: non-small-cell lung cancer, pemetrexed, patient assistance program, cost–utility analysis, basic standard care

Background and Objectives: Disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) such as gene therapy are currently under investigation as a potential treatment for Huntington disease (HD). Our objective was to estimate the long-term natural history of HD progression and explore the potential efficacy impacts and value of a hypothetical DMT using a decision-analytic modeling framework., Methods: We developed a health state transition model that separately analyzed 40-year-old individuals with prefunctional decline (PFD, HD Integrated Staging System [HD-ISS] stage <3, total functional score [TFC] 13), active functional decline Shoulson and Fahn category 1 (SF1, HD-ISS stage 3, TFC 13-11), and SF2 (HD-ISS stage 3, TFC 10-7). Three-year outcomes from the TRACK-HD longitudinal study were linearly extrapolated to estimate the long-term health outcomes and costs of each population. For PFD individuals, we used the HD-ISS to predict the onset of functional decline. HD costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon by applying health state-specific costs and utilities derived from a related HD burden-of-illness study. We then estimated the long-term health impacts of hypothetical DMTs that slowed or delayed onset of functional decline. We conducted sensitivity analyses to assess model uncertainties., Results: The expected life years for 40-year-old PFD, SF1, and SF2 populations were 20.46 (95% credible range [CR]: 19.05-22.30), 13.93 (10.82-19.08), and 10.99 (8.28-22.07), respectively. The expected QALYs for PFD, SF1, and SF2 populations were 15.93 (14.91-17.44), 8.29 (6.36-11.79), and 5.79 (4.14-12.91), respectively. The lifetime costs of HD were $508,200 ($310,300 to $803,700) for the PFD population, $1.15 million ($684,500 to $1.89 million) for SF1 individuals, and $1.07 million ($571,700 to $2.26 million) for SF2 individuals. Although hypothetical DMTs led to cost savings in the PFD population by delaying the cost burdens of functional decline, they increased costs in SF1 and SF2 populations by prolonging time spent in expensive progressive HD states., Discussion: Our novel HD-modeling framework estimates HD progression over a lifetime and the associated costs and QALYs. Our approach can be used for future cost-effectiveness models as positive DMT clinical trial evidence becomes available., Competing Interests: G.F. Guzauskas, L.R. Munetsi, S. Malik, and I. Rodriguez-Santana received consulting fees from uniQure, Inc. for this research, through a contract procured by HCD Economics, Daresbury, UK. T.M. Ali and F. Zhang are paid employees of uniQure, Inc., Lexington, MA, USA. S.J. Tabrizi, J.D. Long, A. Arnesen, J.L. Hamilton, and D.O. Claasen report no disclosures relevant to the manuscript. Full disclosure form information provided by the authors is available with the full text of this article at Neurology.org/cp., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.)

Introduction: Genomic screening to identify individuals with Lynch Syndrome (LS) and those with a high polygenic risk score (PRS) promises to personalize Colorectal Cancer (CRC) screening. Understanding its clinical and economic impact is needed to inform screening guidelines and reimbursement policies., Methods: We developed a Markov model to simulate individuals over a lifetime. We compared LS+PRS genomic screening to standard of care (SOC) for a cohort of US adults at age 30. The Markov model included health states of "no CRC", CRC stages (A-D) and death. We estimated incidence, mortality, and discounted economic outcomes of the population under different interventions., Results: Screening 1000 individuals for LS+PRS resulted in 1.36 fewer CRC cases and 0.65 fewer deaths compared to SOC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $124,415 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY); screening had a 69% probability of being cost-effective using a willingness to pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Setting the PRS threshold at the 90th percentile of the LS+PRS screening program to define individuals at high risk was most likely to be cost-effective compared to 95th, 85th, and 80th percentiles., Conclusion: Population-level LS+PRS screening is marginally cost-effective and a threshold of 90th percentile is more likely to be cost-effective than other thresholds., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited, progressively debilitating blood disorder. Emerging gene therapies (GTx) may lead to a complete remission, the benefits of such can only be realized if GTx is affordable and accessible in the low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) with the greatest SCD burden. To estimate the health impacts and country-specific value-based prices (VBP) of a future gene therapy for SCD using a cost-utility model framework. We developed a lifetime Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of GTx versus standard of care for SCD. We modeled populations in seven LMICs and six high-income countries (HICs) estimating lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in comparison to estimates of a country's cost-effectiveness threshold. Each country's unique VBP for GTx was calculated via threshold analysis. Relative to SOC treatment alone, we found that hypothetical GTx reduced the number of people symptomatic with SCD over time leading to fewer DALYs. Across countries, VBPs ranged from $3.6 million (US) to $700 (Uganda). Our results indicate a wide range of GTx prices are required if it is to be made widely available and may inform burden and affordability for 'target product profiles' of GTx in SCD., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Curative therapies (CTx) to achieve durable remission of HIV disease without the need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are currently being explored. Our objective was to model the long-term health and cost outcomes of HIV in various countries, the impact of future CTx on those outcomes and the country-specific value-based prices (VBPs) of CTx., Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the future health economic impacts of a hypothetical CTx for HIV in countries with pre-existing access to ART (CTx+ART), compared to ART alone. We modelled populations in seven low-and-middle-income countries and five high-income countries, accounting for localized ART and other HIV-related costs, and calibrating variables for HIV epidemiology and ART uptake to reproduce historical HIV outcomes before projecting future outcomes to year 2100. Health was quantified using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Base case, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios were modelled for CTx+ART and ART alone. Based on long-term outcomes and each country's estimated health opportunity cost, we calculated the country-specific VBP of CTx., Results: The introduction of a hypothetical CTx lowered HIV prevalence and prevented future infections over time, which increased life-years, reduced the number of individuals on ART, reduced AIDS-related deaths, and ultimately led to fewer DALYs versus ART-alone. Our base case estimates for the VBP of CTx ranged from $5400 (Kenya) up to $812,300 (United States). Within each country, the VBP was driven to be greater primarily by lower ART coverage, lower HIV incidence and prevalence, and higher CTx cure probability. The VBP estimates were found to be greater in countries where HIV prevalence was higher, ART coverage was lower and the health opportunity cost was greater., Conclusions: Our results quantify the VBP for future curative CTx that may apply in different countries and under different circumstances. With greater CTx cure probability, durability and scale up, CTx commands a higher VBP, while improvements in ART coverage may mitigate its value. Our framework can be utilized for estimating this cost given a wide range of scenarios related to the attributes of a given CTx as well as various parameters of the HIV epidemic within a given country., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International AIDS Society.)

Competing Interests: Disclosures: All relevant financial relationships have been mitigated. Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=A22-0015.

Background: The cost-effectiveness of screening the U.S. population for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Tier 1 genomic conditions is unknown., Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of simultaneous genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS), hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC), and familial hypercholesterolemia (FH)., Design: Decision analytic Markov model., Data Sources: Published literature., Target Population: Separate age-based cohorts (ages 20 to 60 years at time of screening) of racially and ethnically representative U.S. adults., Time Horizon: Lifetime., Perspective: U.S. health care payer., Intervention: Population genomic screening using clinical sequencing with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes, cascade testing of first-degree relatives, and recommended preventive interventions for identified probands., Outcome Measures: Incident breast, ovarian, and colorectal cancer cases; incident cardiovascular events; quality-adjusted survival; and costs., Results of Base-Case Analysis: Screening 100 000 unselected 30-year-olds resulted in 101 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 77 to 127) fewer overall cancer cases and 15 (95% UI, 4 to 28) fewer cardiovascular events and an increase of 495 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% UI, 401 to 757) at an incremental cost of $33.9 million (95% UI, $27.0 million to $41.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $68 600 per QALY gained (95% UI, $41 800 to $88 900)., Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-old cohorts was cost-effective in 99%, 88%, and 19% of probabilistic simulations, respectively, at a $100 000-per-QALY threshold. The test costs at which screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-olds reached the $100 000-per-QALY threshold were $413, $290, and $166, respectively. Variant prevalence and adherence to preventive interventions were also highly influential parameters., Limitations: Population averages for model inputs, which were derived predominantly from European populations, vary across ancestries and health care environments., Conclusion: Population genomic screening with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes associated with 3 CDC Tier 1 conditions is likely to be cost-effective in U.S. adults younger than 40 years if the testing cost is relatively low and probands have access to preventive interventions., Primary Funding Source: National Human Genome Research Institute., Competing Interests: Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M22-0846.

Background: Overdose deaths have increased dramatically in the United States, including in Rhode Island. In July 2021, the Rhode Island government passed legislation supporting a two-year pilot program authorizing supervised consumption sites (SCSs) in response to this crisis. We estimated the costs and benefits of a hypothetical SCS in Providence, Rhode Island., Methods: We utilized a decision analytic mathematical model to compare costs and outcomes for people who inject drugs under two scenarios: (1) a SCS that includes syringe services provision, and (2) a syringe service program only (i.e., status quo). We assumed 0.95% of injections result in overdose, the SCS would serve 400 clients monthly and have a net cost of $783,899 annually, 46% of overdoses occurring outside of the SCS result in an ambulance run and 43% result in an emergency department (ED) visit, 0.79% of overdoses occurring within the SCS result in an ambulance run and ED visit, and the SCS would lead to a 25.7% reduction in fatal overdoses near the site. The model was developed from a modified societal perspective with a one-year time horizon., Results: A hypothetical SCS in Providence would prevent approximately 2 overdose deaths, 261 ambulance runs, 244 ED visits, and 117 inpatient hospitalizations for emergency overdose care annually compared to a scenario that includes a syringe service program only. The SCS would save $1,104,454 annually compared to the syringe service program only, accounting only for facility costs and short-term costs of emergency overdose care and ignoring savings associated with averted deaths. Influential parameters included the percentage of injections resulting in overdose, the total annual injections at the SCS, and the percentage of overdoses outside of the SCS that result in an ED visit., Conclusion: A SCS in would result in substantial cost savings due to prevention of costly emergency overdose care., Competing Interests: Declarations of Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Potential conflicts of interest: LCC conducts research unrelated to this work funded by the Hassenfeld Family Foundation. All other authors declare that they have no potential conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Population genomic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) in unselected individuals can prevent premature cardiovascular disease., Objective: To estimate the clinical and economic outcomes of population-wide FH genomic screening versus no genomic screening., Methods: We developed a decision tree plus 10-state Markov model evaluating the identification of patients with an FH variant, statin treatment status, LDL-C levels, MI, and stroke to compare the costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness of population-wide FH genomic screening. FH variant prevalence (0.4%) was estimated from the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative (MyCode). Genomic test costs were assumed to be $200. Age and sex-based estimates of MI, recurrent MI, stroke, and recurrent stroke were obtained from Framingham risk equations. Additional outcomes independently associated with FH variants were derived from a retrospective analysis of 26,025 participants screened for FH. Sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted to evaluate model assumptions and uncertainty., Results: FH screening was most effective at younger ages; screening unselected 20-year-olds lead to 111 QALYs gained per 100,000 individuals screened at an incremental cost of $20 M. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for 20-year-olds was $181,000 per QALY, and there was a 38% probability of cost-effectiveness at a $100,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. If genomic testing cost falls to $100, the ICER would be $91,000 per QALY., Conclusion: Population FH screening is not cost-effective at current willingness to pay thresholds. However, reducing test costs, testing at younger ages, or including FH within broader multiplex screening panels may improve clinical and economic value., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest. The funders did not have a role in the design of the study, in the collection, analysis, or interpretation of data, in the manuscript writing, or in the decision to publish results., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Purpose: Genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS) could prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) by identifying high-risk patients and instituting intensive CRC screening. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of a population-wide LS genomic screening vs family history-based screening alone in an unselected US population., Methods: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model including health states for precancer, stage-specific CRC, and death and assumed an inexpensive test cost of $200. We conducted sensitivity and threshold analyses to evaluate model uncertainty., Results: Screening unselected 30-year-olds for LS variants resulted in 48 (95% credible range [CR] = 35-63) fewer overall CRC cases per 100,000 screened individuals, leading to 187 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 95% CR = 123-260) gained at an incremental cost of $24.6 million (95% CR = $20.3 million-$29.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $132,200, with an 8% and 71% probability of being cost-effective at $100,000 and $150,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay thresholds, respectively., Conclusion: Population LS screening may be cost-effective in younger patient populations under a $150,000 willingness-to-pay per QALY threshold and with a relatively inexpensive test cost. Further reductions in testing costs and/or the inclusion of LS testing within a broader multiplex screening panel are needed for screening to become highly cost-effective., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

BACKGROUND: In the randomized phase 3 GALLIUM trial, first-line treatment with obinutuzumab (GA101; G) plus chemotherapy (G + chemo) resulted in superior progression-free survival (PFS) compared with rituximab plus chemotherapy (R + chemo) for patients with follicular lymphoma (FL). G + chemo was found to be cost-effective when compared with R + chemo (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] of approximately $2,300 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained). Two rituximab biosimilars, rituximab-abbs (Ra) and rituximab-pvvr (Rp), have been approved by the FDA for use in this setting. However, the cost-effectiveness of G + chemo versus Ra + chemo and Rp + chemo has not yet been estimated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of G + chemo versus Ra + chemo and Rp + chemo in the first-line treatment of FL. METHODS: We adapted an existing Markov model that compared G + chemo with R + chemo, using investigator-assessed PFS and postprogression survival data from the GALLIUM trial to model overall survival. All patients in the study received induction chemoimmunotherapy with either G + chemo or R + chemo, with responders then receiving obinutuzumab or rituximab maintenance therapy for 2 years or until disease progression. We assumed that the efficacy and safety of the rituximab biosimilars plus chemotherapy were the same as the R + chemo arm of the GALLIUM study. Drug utilization and treatment duration were also derived from GALLIUM. Health care costs were based on Medicare reimbursements, and drug costs were average sale prices for intravenous therapies or wholesale acquisition costs for oral therapies used after progression. Utility estimates were based on the GALLIUM trial data and published literature. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the key drivers of the model and uncertainty in the results. Results: Treatment with G + chemo led to an increase of 0.93 QALYs relative to rituximab biosimilars plus chemotherapy (95% credible range [CR] = 0.36-1.46). The total cost of G + chemo was $191,317, whereas the total costs of Ra + chemo and Rp + chemo were $164,340 (Δ14.1%) and $169,755 (Δ11.3%), respectively, with G + chemo resulting in incremental costs of $26,978 (95% CR = $19,781-$33,119) and $21,562 (95% CR = $14,473-$28,389), respectively. The incremental total drug and administration costs were $32,678 (Δ25.4%) and $27,263 (Δ21.2%) for G + chemo versus Ra + chemo and G + chemo versus Rp + chemo, respectively. There were cost savings of $7,050 (Δ-12.4%) related to disease progression for G + chemo ($56,727) compared with Ra + chemo and Rp + chemo ($63,777). ICERs were $28,879 and $23,082 per QALY gained for G + chemo versus Ra + chemo and Rp + chemo, respectively. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, G + chemo was cost-effective at the $50,000 and $100,000 per QALY thresholds versus both Ra + chemo (88% and 98% probabilities of cost-effectiveness, respectively) and Rp + chemo (93% and 98%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: G + chemo is projected to be cost-effective versus rituximab biosimilars plus chemotherapy in the United States as first-line treatment for FL, driven by increased QALYs for G + chemo and cost savings from delayed disease progression. DISCLOSURES: This study was funded by Genentech, a member of the Roche Group. The study sponsor was involved in study design, data interpretation, and writing of the report. All authors approved the decision to submit the report for publication. Spencer and Guzauskas report fees from Genentech during the conduct of the study. Felizzi was employed by F. Hoffmann-La Roche at the time this study was conducted; Launonen is an employees of F. Hoffmann-La Roche. Felizzi and Launonen previously had share ownership in Novartis. Dawson and Masaquel are employees of Genentech, and they have stock options in F. Hoffmann-La Roche. Veenstra reports fees from Genentech, during the conduct of this study and outside of the submitted work. This work was presented, in part, at the AACR Virtual Meeting Advances in Malignant Lymphoma meeting (virtual; August 17-19, 2020) and the SOHO annual meeting (virtual; September 9-12, 2020).

BACKGROUND: Oral semaglutide is the first oral formulation of a glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist to be approved in the United States for glycemic control in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). While oral semaglutide is not indicated for reduction of cardiovascular event risk, its label does include evidence of no increase in cardiovascular risk in people who received oral semaglutide. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incremental value of oral semaglutide added to existing antihyperglycemic treatment for people with T2DM with additional risk for cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime cost-effectiveness of oral semaglutide added to current antihyperglycemic treatment for T2DM using a microsimulation model based primarily on the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model 2 (OM2) equations. Oral semaglutide added to current antihyperglycemic treatment was separately compared with (a) ongoing background antihyperglycemic treatment, (b) sitagliptin, (c) empagliflozin, and (d) liraglutide. Comparators sitagliptin, empagliflozin, and liraglutide were added to ongoing antihyperglycemic treatment. We applied hazard ratios derived from a network meta-analysis for cardiovascular and renal outcomes to the UKPDS OM2 estimated baseline rates. Health state utilities and costs were derived from the published literature. We estimated total costs, life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), clinical events, and cost per major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) avoided, over a lifetime time horizon using discount rates of 3% for costs and outcomes. RESULTS: The lifetime total cost for people treated with oral semaglutide was $311,300, with costs for the other comparators ranging from $262,800 (background treatment alone) to $287,800 (liraglutide). Oral semaglutide resulted in the fewest MACE, including the fewest cardiovascular deaths. Among the 5 modeled treatment strategies, oral semaglutide had the highest LYs gained (8.43 vs. 7.76 [background treatment alone] to 8.29 [empagliflozin and liraglutide]) and the highest QALYs gained (4.11 vs. 3.70 [background treatment alone] to 4.03 [empagliflozin]). Oral semaglutide would likely be considered cost-effective compared with liraglutide (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] = $40,100), and moderately cost-effective versus background treatment alone ([ICER] = $117,500/QALY) and sitagliptin (ICER = $145,200/QALY). The ICER for oral semaglutide compared with empagliflozin was approximately $458,400 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: As modeled, oral semaglutide as an add-on therapy to background antihyperglycemic treatment produced incremental benefits in MACE avoided, along with greater QALYs compared with background antihyperglycemic treatment alone. Oral semaglutide use resulted in better outcomes than background treatment alone or sitagliptin, and similar outcomes to liraglutide or empagliflozin with overlapping 95% confidence ranges for QALYs. Oral semaglutide was estimated to be cost-effective compared with liraglutide and to have incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between $100,000 and $150,000 per QALY versus sitagliptin and background therapy alone, but it did not meet these thresholds compared with empagliflozin. DISCLOSURES: Funding for this study was provided by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, an independent organization that evaluates the evidence on the value of health care interventions. ICER reports grants from Laura and John Arnold Foundation, California Health Care Foundation, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and Kaiser Foundation Health Plan. ICER's annual policy summit is supported by dues from AbbVie, Aetna, America's Health Insurance Plans, Anthem, Alnylam, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Blue Shield of CA, Cambia Health Services, CVS, Editas, Evolve Pharmacy, Express Scripts, Genentech/Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Harvard Pilgrim, Health Care Service Corporation, Health Partners, Humana, Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), Kaiser Permanente, LEO Pharma, Mallinckrodt, Merck, Novartis, National Pharmaceutical Council, Premera, Prime Therapeutics, Regeneron, Sanofi, Spark Therapeutics, uniQure, and United Healthcare. Rind, Fazioli, Chapman, and Pearson are employed by ICER. Guzauskas and Hansen have nothing to disclose. Study results were presented at the New England Comparative Effectiveness Public Advisory Council (New England CEPAC), November 14, 2019, at Brown University, Providence, RI.

Background: DiviTum TKa, a blood-based biomarker assay developed to monitor and predict treatment response in hormone receptor positive metastatic breast cancer (HR + mBC), may decrease traditional disease monitoring assessments and avoid prolongation of futile treatments., Objective: To estimate the diagnostic and treatment budget impact of the assay on a postmenopausal HR + HER2- mBC population in a one-million-member U.S. health plan., Methods: We developed a budget impact model comparing inclusion and exclusion of DiviTum TKa to standard care under which DiviTum TKa (1) reduces the frequency of traditional mBC monitoring tools, and (2) predicts treatment futility in advance of radiological disease progression. Traditional disease monitoring assessment schedules were based on guidelines and expert opinions. DiviTum TKa's impact on therapy utilization was based on published literature and expert opinion. Modeled costs included DiviTum TKa, NCCN-recommended treatments, imaging, biomarker testing, and adverse events. We calculated total and per-member per-month (PMPM) costs with a 3-year time horizon., Results: The inclusion of 416 DiviTum TKa assays ($166,400) was largely offset by 193 fewer CT scans, 88 fewer bone scans, and 55 fewer biomarker tests over 3 years, a savings of -$128,400, resulting in a PMPM of $0.001. In scenario analyses, adding DiviTum TKa resulted in additional treatment-related cost-savings (-$465,600), resulting in a PMPM cost-savings of -$0.013, or an average savings of -$7,400 per each patient initiating first-line cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor plus aromatase inhibitor therapy. Expected savings approached 3× the spend on the new test. Results were most sensitive to DiviTum TKa cost, population parameters, and treatment costs., Conclusions: Clinical use of the DiviTum TKa assay is expected to decrease traditional imaging and monitoring and may reduce the overall cost of managing mBC if it leads to clinical decisions to avoid futile therapy. Post-coverage, real-world monitoring of palliative therapies among post-menopausal mBC populations is needed to better categorize cost savings over time.

Importance: Genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) in unselected women offers an opportunity to prevent cancer morbidity and mortality, but the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of such screening have not been well studied., Objective: To estimate the lifetime incremental incidence of HBOC and the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of HBOC genomic screening in an unselected population vs family history-based testing., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this study conducted from October 27, 2017, to May 3, 2020, a decision analytic Markov model was developed that included health states for precancer, for risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), for earlier- and later-stage HBOC, after cancer, and for death. A complimentary cascade testing module was also developed to estimate outcomes in first-degree relatives. Age-specific RRM and RRSO uptake probabilities were estimated from the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative and published sources. Parameters including RRM and RRSO effectiveness, variant-specific cancer risk, costs, and utilities were derived from published sources. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate model assumptions and uncertainty., Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime cancer incidence, QALYs, life-years, and direct medical costs for genomic screening in an unselected population vs family history-based testing only were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as the difference in cost between strategies divided by the difference in QALYs between strategies. Earlier-stage and later-stage cancer cases prevented and total cancer cases prevented were also calculated., Results: The model found that population screening of 30-year-old women was associated with 75 (95% credible range [CR], 60-90) fewer overall cancer cases and 288 QALYs (95% CR, 212-373 QALYs) gained per 100 000 women screened, at an incremental cost of $25 million (95% CR, $21 millon to $30 million) vs family history-based testing; the ICER was $87 700 (78% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of $100 000 per QALY). In contrast, population screening of 45-year-old women was associated with 24 (95% CR, 18-29) fewer cancer cases and 97 QALYs (95% CR, 66-130 QALYs) gained per 100 000 women screened, at an incremental cost of $26 million (95% CR, $22 million to $30 million); the ICER was $268 200 (0% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of $100 000 per QALY). A scenario analysis without cascade testing increased the ICER to $92 600 for 30-year-old women and $354 500 for 45-year-old women. A scenario analysis assuming a 5% absolute decrease in mammography screening in women without a variant was associated with the potential for net harm (-90 QALYs per 100 000 women screened; 95% CR, -180 to 10 QALYs)., Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that population HBOC screening may be cost-effective among younger women but not among older women. Cascade testing of first-degree relatives added a modest improvement in clinical and economic value. The potential for harm conferred by inappropriate reduction in mammography among noncarriers should be quantified.

Disclosures: Funding for this summary was contributed by Arnold Ventures, California Health Care Foundation, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and Kaiser Foundation Health Plan to the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), an independent organization that evaluates the evidence on the value of health care interventions. ICER's annual policy summit is supported by dues from Aetna, America's Health Insurance Plans, Anthem, Allergan, Alnylam, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Blue Shield of CA, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Cambia Health Services, CVS, Editas, Express Scripts, Genentech/Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Harvard Pilgrim, Health Care Service Corporation, HealthFirst, Health Partners, Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), Kaiser Permanente, LEO Pharma, Mallinckrodt, Merck, Novartis, National Pharmaceutical Council, Pfizer, Premera, Prime Therapeutics, Regeneron, Sanofi, Spark Therapeutics, and United Healthcare. Fazioli, Rind, and Pearson are employed by ICER. Gazauskas and Hansen have nothing to disclose.

Disclosures: Funding for this summary was contributed by Arnold Ventures, Commonwealth Fund, California Health Care Foundation, National Institute for Health Care Management (NIHCM), New England States Consortium Systems Organization, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, and Partners HealthCare to the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), an independent organization that evaluates the evidence on the value of health care interventions. ICER's annual policy summit is supported by dues from Aetna, America's Health Insurance Plans, Anthem, Allergan, Alnylam, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Blue Shield of CA, Cambia Health Services, CVS, Editas, Express Scripts, Genentech/Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Harvard Pilgrim, Health Care Service Corporation, Health Partners, Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), Kaiser Permanente, LEO Pharma, Mallinckrodt, Merck, Novartis, National Pharmaceutical Council, Premera, Prime Therapeutics, Regeneron, Sanofi, Spark Therapeutics, and United Healthcare. Herron-Smith and Pearson are employed by ICER, which has a contract with the University of California, San Francisco, to perform work for these analyses. Segal was employed by ICER at the time of this review. Tice and Walsh are employed by the University of California, San Francisco. Gazauskas and Hansen have nothing to disclose.

Background: Value of information (VOI) analysis often requires modeling to characterize and propagate uncertainty. In collaboration with a cancer clinical trial group, we integrated a VOI approach to assessing trial proposals., Objective: This paper aims to explore the impact of modeling choices on VOI results and to share lessons learned from the experience., Methods: After selecting two proposals (A: phase III, breast cancer; B: phase II, pancreatic cancer) for in-depth evaluations, we categorized key modeling choices relevant to trial decision makers (characterizing uncertainty of efficacy, evidence thresholds to change clinical practice, and sample size) and modelers (cycle length, survival distribution, simulation runs, and other choices). Using a $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold, we calculated the patient-level expected value of sample information (EVSI) for each proposal and examined whether each modeling choice led to relative change of more than 10% from the averaged base-case estimate. We separately analyzed the impact of the effective time horizon., Results: The base-case EVSI was $118,300 for Proposal A and $22,200 for Proposal B per patient. Characterizing uncertainty of efficacy was the most important choice in both proposals (e.g. Proposal A: $118,300 using historical data vs. $348,300 using expert survey), followed by the sample size and the choice of survival distribution. The assumed effective time horizon also had a substantial impact on the population-level EVSI., Conclusions: Modeling choices can have a substantial impact on VOI. Therefore, it is important for groups working to incorporate VOI into research prioritization to adhere to best practices, be clear in their reporting and justification for modeling choices, and to work closely with the relevant decision makers, with particular attention to modeling choices.

Purpose: The EF-14 trial demonstrated that adding tumor treating fields (TTFields) to maintenance temozolomide (TMZ) significantly extends progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for newly-diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM) patients. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TTFields and TMZ for newly-diagnosed GBM from the US healthcare system perspective. Methods and materials: Outcomes for newly-diagnosed GBM patients were estimated over a lifetime horizon using an area under the curve model with three states: stable disease, progressive disease, or death. The survival model integrated the 5-year EF-14 trial results with long-term GBM epidemiology data and US background mortality rates. Adverse event rates were derived from the EF-14 trial data. Utility values to determine quality-adjusted life-years, adverse event costs, and supportive care costs were obtained from published literature. A 3% discount rate was applied to future costs and outcomes. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess result uncertainty due to parameter variability. Results: Treatment with TTFields and TMZ was estimated to result in a mean increase in survival of 1.25 life years (95% credible range [CR] = 0.89-1.67) and 0.96 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (95% CR = 0.67-1.30) compared to treatment with TMZ alone. The incremental total cost was $188,637 (95% CR = $145,324-$225,330). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $150,452 per life year gained and $197,336 per QALY gained. The model was most sensitive to changes in the cost of TTFields treatment. Conclusions: Adding TTFields to maintenance TMZ resulted in a substantial increase in the estimated mean lifetime survival and quality-adjusted survival for newly-diagnosed GBM patients. Treatment with TTFields can be considered cost-effective within the reported range of willingness-to-pay thresholds in the US.

Background: The threshold of sufficient evidence for adoption of clinically- and genomically-guided precision medicine (PM) has been unclear., Objective: To evaluate evidence thresholds for clinically guided PM versus genomically guided PM., Methods: We develop an "evidence threshold criterion" (ETC), which is the time-weighted difference between expected value of perfect information and incremental net health benefit minus the cost of research, and use it as a measure of evidence threshold that is proportional to the upper bound of disutility to a risk-averse decision maker for adopting a new intervention under decision uncertainty. A larger (more negative) ETC value indicates that only decision makers with low risk aversion would adopt new intervention. We evaluated the ETC plus cost of research (ETCc), assuming the same cost of research for both interventions, over time for a pharmacogenomic (PGx) testing intervention and avoidance of a drug-drug interaction (aDDI) intervention for acute coronary syndrome patients indicated for antiplatelet therapy. We then examined how the ETC may explain incongruous decision making across different national decision-making bodies., Results: The ETCc for PGx increased over time, whereas the ETCc for aDDI decreased to a negative value over time, indicating that decision makers with even low risk aversion will have doubts in adopting PGx, whereas decision makers who are highly risk-averse will continue to have doubts about adopting aDDI. National recommendation bodies appear to be consistent over time within their own decision making, but had different levels of risk aversion., Conclusion: The ETC may be a useful metric for assessing policy makers' risk preferences and, in particular, understanding differences in policy recommendations for genomic versus clinical PM., (Copyright © 2019 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The GALLIUM trial compared obinutuzumab (GA101, G)-based chemotherapy followed by G monotherapy (G + chemo) for up to two years to rituximab (R)-based chemotherapy followed by R monotherapy (R + chemo) for up to two years in previously untreated follicular lymphoma (FL) patients. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of G + chemo versus R + chemo utilizing GALLIUM trial data and published literature. G + chemo had increased drug costs (undiscounted: $135,200 versus $127,700 for R + chemo), representing a relative increase of 5.9%. However, this was offset by a $6,400 lower cost for disease progression. G + chemo led to increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) relative to R + chemo of 0.81 (95% credible range, [CR]: 0.22-1.37), and the overall discounted incremental cost was $1,900 (95% CR: -$7,400 to $8,900). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ∼$2,300 per QALY gained, and the results were highly robust to sensitivity analyses. Treatment with G + chemo compared to R + chemo is cost-effective in previously untreated FL patients in the US.

Aims: Obinutuzumab (GA101, G) was approved in February 2016 by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat follicular lymphoma (FL) patients who relapsed after, or are refractory to (R/R), a rituximab-containing regimen (R/R-rituximab). In the GADOLIN trial, R/R-rituximab patients who received G plus bendamustine (B) followed by G-monotherapy (G + B) for up to 2 years had significantly improved progression-free survival and overall survival compared to patients receiving B-monotherapy. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of G + B vs B-monotherapy for R/R-rituximab FL patients from a US payer perspective., Materials and Methods: Patient outcomes were simulated using a 3-state area under the curve model including progression-free survival, progressive disease, and death. This study used R/R-rituximab data from the National LymphoCare Study to extrapolate the GADOLIN trial's refractory FL progression-free and overall survival data to a R/R-rituximab FL population. Drug utilization and adverse events were based on trial data, and costs were based on Medicare reimbursements and drug wholesale acquisition costs in 2016. Utility estimates were derived from published literature. Post-progression treatment costs were based on observed post-progression therapies in GADOLIN. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess model uncertainty., Results: G + B resulted in an increase in quality-adjusted life years relative to B-monotherapy of 1.24 (95% CR = 0.61-1.87); the incremental total cost was $58,100 (95% CR = $54,500-$61,500). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $47,000 per QALY gained, and, based on probabilistic simulations, there was a 98% probability that G + B was cost-effective at the $100,000 per QALY threshold., Limitations and Conclusions: This US-based analysis suggests that treatment with G + B compared to B-monotherapy is likely cost-effective in R/R-rituximab FL patients. Modeling a R/R-rituximab population based on a synthesis of GADOLIN and the National LymphoCare Study data introduces uncertainty in the analysis. However, the findings were robust to sensitivity analyses.

Background: The Institute of Medicine has called for approaches to help maximize the return on investments (ROI) in cancer clinical trials. Value of Research (VOR) is a health economics technique that estimates ROI and can inform research prioritization. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of using VOR analyses on the clinical trial proposal review process within the SWOG cancer clinical trials consortium., Methods: We used a previously developed minimal modeling approach to calculate VOR estimates for 9 phase II/III SWOG proposals between February 2015 and December 2016. Estimates were presented to executive committee (EC) members (N = 12) who determine which studies are sent to the National Cancer Institute for funding consideration. EC members scored proposals from 1 (best) to 5 based on scientific merit and potential impact before and after receiving VOR estimates. EC members were surveyed to assess research priorities, proposal evaluation process satisfaction, and the VOR process., Results: Value of Research estimates ranged from -$2.1B to $16.46B per proposal. Following review of VOR results, the EC changed their score for eight of nine proposals. Proposal rankings were different in pre- vs postscores (P value: 0.03). Respondents had mixed views of the ultimate utility of VOR for their decisions with most supporting (42%) or neutral (41%) to the idea of adding VOR to the evaluation process., Conclusions: The findings from this pilot study indicate use of VOR analyses may be a useful adjunct to inform proposal reviews within NCI Cooperative Clinical Trials groups., (© 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: The burden of pneumococcal disease in China is high, and a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) recently received regulatory approval and is available to Chinese infants. PCV13 protects against the most prevalent serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in China, but will not provide full societal benefits until made broadly available through a national immunization program (NIP)., Objective: To estimate clinical and economic benefits of introducing PCV13 into a NIP in China using local cost estimates and accounting for variability in vaccine uptake and indirect (herd protection) effects., Methods: We developed a population model to estimate the effect of PCV13 introduction in China. Modeled health states included meningitis, bacteremia, pneumonia (PNE), acute otitis media, death and sequelae, and no disease. Direct healthcare costs and disease incidence data for IPD and PNE were derived from the China Health Insurance and Research Association database; all other parameters were derived from published literature. We estimated total disease cases and associated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and deaths for three scenarios from a Chinese Payer Perspective: (1) direct effects only, (2) direct+indirect effects for IPD only, and (3) direct+indirect effects for IPD and inpatient PNE., Results: Scenario (1) resulted in 370.3 thousand QALYs gained and 12.8 thousand deaths avoided versus no vaccination. In scenarios (2) and (3), the PCV13 NIP gained 383.2 thousand and 3,580 thousand QALYs, and avoided 13.1 thousand and 147.5 thousand deaths versus no vaccination, respectively. In all three scenarios, the vaccination cost was offset by cost reductions from prevented disease yielding net costs of ¥29,362.32 million, ¥29,334.29 million, and ¥13,524.72 million, respectively. All resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios fell below a 2x China GDP cost-effectiveness threshold across a range of potential vaccine prices., Discussion: Initiation of a PCV13 NIP in China incurs large upfront costs but is good value for money, and is likely to prevent substantial cases of disease among children and non-vaccinated individuals., Competing Interests: MW, DL, JY, BH, and RF are employees of Pfizer Inc. BW and GG are employees of Elysia Group LLC, who were paid consultants to Pfizer in connection with the development of this manuscript. KS and YHY do not have any financial or nonfinancial competing interests to disclose. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Aim: To estimate the mean lifetime survival benefit, an essential component of health economic evaluations in oncology, of adding tumor treating fields (TTFields) to maintenance temozolomide (TMZ) for newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients., Methods: We integrated EF-14 trial data with glioblastoma epidemiology data. The model provided for an evidence-based approach to estimate lifetime survival for the material number of EF-14 trial patients still alive at 5 years., Results & Conclusion: Patients treated with TTFields and TMZ had an incremental mean lifetime survival of 1.8 years (TTFields/TMZ: 4.2 vs TMZ alone: 2.4). Patients alive at year 2 after starting TTFields had a 20.7% probability of surviving to year 10. The results presented here provide the required incremental survival benefit necessary for a future assessment of the incremental cost-effectiveness of TTFields.

Introduction Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is an unfortunately common repercussion of military service in a combat zone. The CONTACT study tested an individualized telephone support intervention employing problem solving therapy (PST) for mTBI in soldiers recently returned from deployment. We sought to determine the cost effectiveness of this intervention from a military healthcare system perspective. Methods We conducted an intent-to-treat post-hoc analysis by building a decision analytic model that evaluated the choice between using PST or education only (EO). The model included cost-minimization and cost-effectiveness analyses. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as the differences in costs of PST versus EO relative to the differences in the outcomes of participants. Results The PST intervention resulted in an annual per-enrolee cost of $1027 (95% CI: $836 to $1248), while EO costs were $32 (95% CI: $25 to $39), resulting in a net incremental cost of $996 per enrolee (95% CI: $806 to $1,217). The ICERs were $68,658/QALY based on EQ-5D (95% CI: -$463,535 to $596,661) and $49,284/QALY based on SF-6D (95% CI: $26,971 to $159,309). Estimates of treatment costs in a real-world setting were accompanied by substantially lower ICERs that are within accepted thresholds for willingness-to-pay. Discussion Although the intervention had short-term benefits sufficient to yield acceptable ICERs, there was no long-term effect of PST over EO observed in the study. Consequently, we suggest that future studies examine the use of low-cost approaches, such as booster relapse-prevention calls, that may lead to a sustained treatment benefit for this population.

Background: New 3-drug regimens have been developed and approved to treat multiple myeloma (MM). The absence of direct comparative data and the high cost of treatment support the need to assess the relative clinical and economic outcomes across all approved regimens., Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments for relapsed and/or refractory MM from a U.S. health system perspective., Methods: We developed a partition survival model with 3 health states (progression-free, progression, and death) to evaluate the following regimens: carfilzomib (CFZ), elotuzumab (ELO), ixazomib (IX), daratumumab (DAR), and panobinostat (PAN) in combination with lenalidomide (LEN) or bortezomib (BOR) plus dexamethasone (DEX) in the second and/or third line of therapy. To estimate relative treatment effects, we developed a network meta-analysis and applied progression-free survival hazard ratios to baseline parametric progression-free survival functions derived from pooled data on LEN+DEX. We estimated overall survival using data on the relationship between progression-free survival and overall survival from a large meta-analysis of MM patients. Modeled costs included those related to drug treatment, administration, monitoring, adverse events, and progression. Utilities were from publicly available data and manufacturer data, if published sources were unavailable., Results: Model results showed that regimens containing DAR yielded the highest expected life years (DAR range: 6.71-7.38 vs. non-DAR range: 3.25-5.27) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY; DAR range: 4.38-5.44 vs. non-DAR range: 2.04-3.46), with DAR+BOR+DEX (second line) and PAN+BOR+DEX (third line) as the most cost-effective options (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $50,700 and cost saving, respectively). The applicability of the PAN+BOR+DEX result may be challenging, however, because of ongoing toxicity concerns. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, second-line DAR+BOR+DEX and third-line PAN+BOR+DEX had an 89% and 87% probability of being cost-effective at the $150,000 per QALY threshold, respectively., Conclusions: The introduction of newer drugs and regimens to treat second- and third-line relapsed/refractory MM appears to provide clinical benefits by lengthening progression-free and overall survival and improving quality of life. However, only the addition of DAR or PAN may be considered cost-effective options according to commonly cited thresholds, and PAN+BOR+DEX results require cautious interpretation. Achieving levels of value more closely aligned with patient benefit would require substantial discounts from the remaining agents evaluated., Disclosures: Funding for this work was provided in part by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, which collaborated on the design, conduct, and reporting of this evaluation. During the conduct of this study, Ollendorf, Synnott, Chapman, and Pearson report grants from Blue Shield of California Foundation, California Health Care Foundation, and Laura and John Arnold Foundation and also report other grants from Aetna, AHIP, Anthem, Blue Shield of California, CVS Caremark, Express Scripts, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, OmedaRx, United Healthcare, Kaiser Permanente, Premera, AstraZeneca, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, National Pharmaceutical Council, Takeda, Pfizer, Novartis, Lilly, Spark Therapeutics, Sanofi, Prime Therapeutics, and Health Care Service Corporation outside the submitted work. Carlson reports grants from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review during the conduct of the study and personal fees from Seattle Genetics, Genentech, and Pfizer outside the submitted work. Russo, Guzauskas, Liu, and Brouwer have nothing to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Carlson, Guzauskas, and Ollendorf. Guzauskas, Chapman, Synnott, and Liu collected the data, and Carlson, Guzauskas, Chapman, and Ollendorf contributed to data analysis, along with Synnott and Liu. The manuscript was written by Carlson, Guzauskas, and Brouwer, along with Chapman, Synnott, and Ollendorf, and revised by Carlson, Brouwer, and Guzauskas, along with Chapman, Synnott, and Ollendorf.

Background: A Phase-3 study of defibrotide compared with historical controls demonstrated a 23% improvement in 100-day survival post-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) among patients with veno-occlusive disease with multi-organ dysfunction (VOD with MOD)., Aim: To estimate the budget impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing defibrotide to a transplant center., Methods: The authors developed a budget impact model from the perspective of a bone-marrow transplant center. It was estimated that 2.3% of adults and 4.2% of children would develop VOD with MOD following HSCT based on a retrospective hospital database analysis and the effect that treating patients with defibrotide would have on costs for adult and pediatric centers was estimated. A cost-utility analysis (CUA) was also developed to capture the long-term cost-effectiveness of defibrotide. Projected life expectancies in the two groups were estimated based on trial data, transplant registry data, studies of long-term survival among HSCT patients, and US population life-tables., Results: There was an estimated 3% increase ($330,706) per year in total adult transplantation center costs associated with adopting defibrotide, and a <1% increase ($106,385) for pediatric transplant centers, assuming 100 transplants per year. In the CUA, the lifetime increase in cost per patient was $106,928, life expectancy increased by 3.74 years, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by 2.24. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $47,736 per QALY gained; 88% probability defibrotide was cost-effective at a $100,000/QALY threshold., Conclusion: The budget impact of defibrotide for a transplant center is relatively modest compared to the overall cost of transplantation. Defibrotide provides an important survival advantage for VOD with MOD patients, and the life years gained lead to defibrotide being highly cost-effective.

Purpose: To estimate the risk-benefit trade-off of a pediatric-inspired regimen versus hyperfractionated cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (hyper-CVAD) for first-line treatment of adolescents/young adult (AYA; ages 16-39 years) patients with Philadelphia-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia., Methods: Patient outcomes were simulated using a 6-state Markov model, including complete response (CR), no CR, first relapse, second CR, second relapse, and death. A Weibull distribution was fit to the progression-free survival curve of hyper-CVAD-treated AYA patients from a single-center study, and comparable patient data from a retrospective study of pediatric regimen-treated AYA patients were utilized to estimate a relative progression difference (hazard ratio = 0.51) and model survival differences. Health-state utilities were estimated based on treatment stage, with an assumption that the pediatric protocol had 0.10 disutility compared with hyper-CVAD before the maintenance phase of treatment. Total life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were compared between treatment protocols at 1, 5, and 10 years, with additional probabilistic sensitivity analyses., Results: Treatment with the pediatric-inspired protocol was associated with a 0.04 increase in life-years, but a 0.01 decrease in QALYs at 1 year. By years 5 and 10, the pediatric-inspired protocol resulted in 0.18 and 0.24 increase in life-years and 0.25 and 0.32 increase in QALYs, respectively, relative to hyper-CVAD. The lower quality of life associated with the induction and intensification phases of pediatric treatment was offset by more favorable progression-free survival and overall survival relative to hyper-CVAD., Conclusions: Our exploratory analysis suggests that, compared with hyper-CVAD, pediatric-inspired protocols may increase life-years throughout treatment stages and QALYs in the long term.

Background The Phase IIIb, Double-Blind, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Alteplase in Patients With Mild Stroke: Rapidly Improving Symptoms and Minor Neurologic Deficits (PRISMS) trial will assess r-tPA in ischemic stroke patients who present with mild deficits (i.e. mild stroke). Aims To assess PRISMS's societal value in clarifying the optimal care for patients with mild ischemic stroke. Methods A value of information (VOI) decision model was developed to compare the outcomes of mild stroke patients treated vs. not treated with r-tPA. Model inputs were derived from a subset of Third International Stroke Trial patients, a recent meta-analysis of r-tPA trials, expert opinion, and other published sources. VOI analyses were also used to assess the expected US societal value of the PRISMS trial and the expected value of reducing uncertainty in key trial estimates. Results The expected net societal value of the PRISMS trial was approximately $210 million ($160 m-$260 m), representing a six-fold return on investment. The value of reducing uncertainty in r-tPA efficacy was approximately $150 million ($100 m-$200 m), while reducing uncertainty in r-tPA safety (increased risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage) did not add additional value in comparison. Conclusions Developing a better understanding of the outcomes of r-tPA treatment in patients with mild ischemic stroke will provide tremendous societal value by clarifying current uncertainty around treatment effectiveness. Enrollment in the PRISMS trial for patients presenting with mild ischemic stroke within 0-3 h of symptom onset should be highly encouraged.

The "big data" era represents an exciting opportunity to utilize powerful new sources of information to reduce clinical and health economic uncertainty on an individual patient level. In turn, health economic outcomes research (HEOR) practices will need to evolve to accommodate individual patient-level HEOR analyses. We propose the concept of "precision HEOR", which utilizes a combination of costs and outcomes derived from big data to inform healthcare decision-making that is tailored to highly specific patient clusters or individuals. To explore this concept, we discuss the current and future roles of HEOR in health sector decision-making, big data and predictive analytics, and several key HEOR contexts in which big data and predictive analytics might transform traditional HEOR into precision HEOR. The guidance document addresses issues related to the transition from traditional to precision HEOR practices, the evaluation of patient similarity analysis and its appropriateness for precision HEOR analysis, and future challenges to precision HEOR adoption. Precision HEOR should make precision medicine more realizable by aiding and adapting healthcare resource allocation. The combined hopes for precision medicine and precision HEOR are that individual patients receive the best possible medical care while overall healthcare costs remain manageable or become more cost-efficient., Competing Interests: This study was funded by Pfizer Investment Co. Ltd., Beijing, China (Pfizer China). The funder had a role in writing the manuscript. G.G., B.W., W.F., and L.G. are paid consultants to Pfizer China. Y.C., C.G., and P.D. are employees of Pfizer China.

Background: Uncertainty regarding clopidogrel effectiveness attenuation because of a drug-drug interaction with proton pump inhibitors (PPI) has led to conflicting guidelines on concomitant therapy. In particular, the effect of this interaction in patients who undergo a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), a population known to have increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events, has not been systematically evaluated., Objective: To synthesize the evidence of the effect of clopidogrel-PPI drug interaction on adverse cardiovascular outcomes in a PCI patient population., Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review for studies reporting clinical outcomes in patients who underwent a PCI and were initiated on clopidogrel with or without a PPI. Studies were included in the analysis if they reported at least 1 of the clinical outcomes of interest (major adverse cardiovascular event [MACE], cardiovascular death, all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, stent thrombosis, and bleed events). We excluded studies that were not exclusive to PCI patients or had no PCI subgroup analysis and/or did not report at least a 6-month follow-up. Statistical and clinical heterogeneity were evaluated and HRs and 95% CIs for adverse clinical events were pooled using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects meta-analysis method., Results: We identified 12 studies comprising 50,277 PCI patients that met our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Our analysis included retrospective analyses of randomized controlled trials (2), health registries (3), claims databases (2), and institutional records (5); no prospective studies of PCI patients were identified. On average, patients were in their mid-60s, male, and had an array of comorbidities, including hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking history. Concomitant therapy following PCI resulted in statistically significant increases in composite MACE (HR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.24-1.32), myocardial infarction (HR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.40-1.62), and stroke (HR = 1.46; 95% CI = 1.15-1.86). However, concomitant therapy had no statistically significant effect on stent thrombosis, mortality measured by all-cause or cardiovascular death, or major bleeding before or after the grouping of studies that reported a major or minor bleed outcome. Only 1 study reported on gastrointestinal bleed, and pooled analysis could not be conducted. Statistical testing suggested heterogeneity among studies, but subgroup analysis did not reveal a clear source., Conclusions: Based on the results from this meta-analysis of retrospective analyses of randomized controlled trials and observational studies, concomitant clopidogrel-PPI therapy following PCI appears to be significantly associated with adverse cardiovascular events. Further research on the effect of individual PPIs is needed., Disclosures: Serbin, Guzauskas, and Veenstra were supported by the NIH Common Fund and NIA (1U01AG047109-01, Veenstra, PI) via the Personalized Medicine Economics Research (PriMER) project. The authors do not report any conflicting interests. All authors contributed to the study concept and design. Serbin took the lead in data collection; data interpretation was performed primarily by Serbin, with assistance from the other authors. The manuscript was written primarily by Serbin, along with Guzauskas, and revised by Guzauskas and Veenstra, with assistance from Serbin.

Introduction: Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), a type of peripheral neuropathic pain (pNeP), is the most common complication of herpes zoster. The objective of this analysis was to determine the cost-effectiveness of pregabalin compared with gabapentin in pNeP and PHN in China., Methods: We developed a China-localized 12-week simulation model to determine the cost-effectiveness of pregabalin compared to gabapentin in 1000 patients with pNeP and PHN. We utilized a questionnaire of Chinese key opinion leaders to estimate the pre-treatment distribution of pain scores for pNeP and PHN. Treatment outcomes for pregabalin and gabapentin were acquired from the published literature., Results: Treatment with pregabalin lead to 12-week decreases in pain scores of 0.6 (pNeP) and 0.7 (PHN) when compared to patients receiving gabapentin, at an incremental cost per additional day of mild/no pain of $45. The difference in mean days of no or mild pain, moderate pain, and severe pain was 8.8, -5.7, and -3.1, when comparing pregabalin and gabapentin, respectively. Pregabalin had more mean days with a >30% (7.71 days), 40% (8.97 days), and 50% reduction (9.97 days) in pain when compared with gabapentin. In the pNeP scenario, pregabalin was associated with a lower average pain score compared with gabapentin (3.91 vs. 4.55). The difference in mean days of no or mild pain, moderate pain, and severe pain was 9.39, -5.56, and -3.82, when comparing pregabalin and gabapentin, respectively. Pregabalin had more mean days with a >30% (8.77 days), 40% (9.81 days), and 50% reduction (10.55 days) in pain when compared with gabapentin., Conclusion: Pregabalin is an effective treatment for PHN and even for pNeP extensively, but at increased cost. It leads to improved outcomes including lower pain scores and more days with no or mild pain., Funding: Pfizer, China.

Background and Purpose: Despite the availability of results from multiple newer clinical trials and changing healthcare costs, the cost-effectiveness of recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (r-tPA) for treatment of acute ischemic stroke within 0 to 3 hours of symptom onset was last evaluated in 1998 for the United States Using current evidence, we evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of r-tPA administered 0 to 3 hours after acute ischemic stroke onset versus no r-tPA., Methods: A disease-based decision model to project lifetime outcomes of patients after acute ischemic stroke by r-tPA treatment status from the US payer perspective was developed. Model inputs were derived from a recent meta-analysis of r-tPA trials, cohort studies, and health state preference studies. Cost data, inflated to 2013 dollars, were based on drug wholesale acquisition cost and the literature. To compare r-tPA to no r-tPA, we calculated incremental total direct costs, incremental quality-adjusted life years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. We performed 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate uncertainty in the results., Results: r-tPA resulted in a gain of 0.39 quality-adjusted life years (95% confidence range, 0.16-0.66) on average per patient and a lifetime cost-saving of $25,000 (95% confidence range, -$42,500 to -$11,000) compared with no r-tPA. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, r-tPA was dominant compared with no r-tPA in ≈100% of simulations. The model was sensitive to inputs for r-tPA efficacy, healthcare costs for disabled patients, mortality rates for disabled and nondisabled patients, and quality of life estimates., Conclusions: Our analysis supports earlier economic evaluations that r-tPA is a cost-effective method to treat stroke. Appropriate use of r-tPA should be prioritized nationally., (© 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Purpose: Genetic services policymakers and insurers often make coverage decisions in the absence of complete evidence of clinical utility and under budget constraints. We evaluated genetic services stakeholder opinions on the potential usefulness of decision-analytic modeling to inform coverage decisions, and asked them to identify genetic tests for decision-analytic modeling studies., Methods: We presented an overview of decision-analytic modeling to members of the Western States Genetic Services Collaborative Reimbursement Work Group and state Medicaid representatives and conducted directed content analysis and an anonymous survey to gauge their attitudes toward decision-analytic modeling. Participants also identified and prioritized genetic services for prospective decision-analytic evaluation., Results: Participants expressed dissatisfaction with current processes for evaluating insurance coverage of genetic services. Some participants expressed uncertainty about their comprehension of decision-analytic modeling techniques. All stakeholders reported openness to using decision-analytic modeling for genetic services assessments. Participants were most interested in application of decision-analytic concepts to multiple-disorder testing platforms, such as next-generation sequencing and chromosomal microarray., Conclusion: Decision-analytic modeling approaches may provide a useful decision tool to genetic services stakeholders and Medicaid decision-makers.

Background and Purpose: Primary stroke centers (PSC) have demonstrated improved survival in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating AIS patients in a PSC compared with a nonPSC hospital setting., Methods: We developed a decision analytic model to project the lifetime outcomes and costs of 2 hypothetical cohorts of 75 AIS patients. Clinical data were derived from a recent observational study comparing PSC- and nonPSC-admitted patients, clinical trials, longitudinal cohort studies, and health state preference studies. Cost data were based on Medicare reimbursement and other published sources. We used a healthcare payer perspective, and the primary outcomes were incremental life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years, and healthcare costs. We performed sensitivity and scenario analyses to evaluate uncertainty in the results., Results: Admission to a PSC resulted in a gain of 0.22 years of life (95% credible range [CR], 0.12-0.33) and 0.15 quality-adjusted life years (95% CR, 0.08-0.23) per patient, at a cost of $3600 (95% CR, $2400-$5000) per patient, compared with admission to a nonPSC hospital. The incremental cost/quality-adjusted life year gained was $24 000, and all probabilistic simulation results were below the $100 000/quality-adjusted life year threshold. In scenario analyses accounting for as few as 7 and as many as 500 AIS patients/year per PSC, cost-effectiveness improved as the number of AIS patients admitted per year increased., Conclusions: Our study indicates that care at a PSC for patients with AIS is cost-effective and improves outcomes across a wide range of possible scenarios.

The objective of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the clinical benefits and harms of prasugrel, clopidogrel, and a CYP2C19 genotype-guided drug selection strategy for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and planned percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We used decision-analytic techniques to model the risks and benefits of alternative antiplatelet strategies. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of the results. Prasugrel demonstrated little difference in net benefit as compared with clopidogrel (+0.02 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); 95% confidence range (CR), -0.23 to 0.21). The genotype-guided strategy had a 93% probability of greater net benefit as compared with clopidogrel (+0.05 QALYs; 95% CR, -0.02 to 0.11), and 66% probability of greater net benefit as compared with prasugrel (+0.03 QALYs; 95% CR, -0.13 to 0.24). Prasugrel and clopidogrel differ in their risk-benefit profiles but appear to offer similar net benefit on average. Use of patient-specific factors such as CYP2C19 genotype offers promise for developing a personalized medicine approach to antiplatelet treatment regimens.

Chromosomal imbalances are a major cause of intellectual disability (ID) and multiple congenital anomalies. We have clinically and molecularly characterized two patients with chromosome translocations and ID. Using whole genome array CGH analysis, we identified a microdeletion involving 4q21.3, unrelated to the translocations in both patients. We confirmed the 4q21.3 microdeletions using fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative genomic PCR. The corresponding deletion boundaries in the patients were further mapped and compared to previously reported 4q21 deletions and the associated clinical features. We determined a common region of deletion overlap that appears unique to ID, short stature, hypotonia, and dysmorphic facial features., (Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Hyperekplexia (MIM #149400) is a rare neurological disorder characterized by an exaggerated startle response, infantile hypertonia and hyperreflexia without spasticity, a hesitant gait that usually improves by 3 years of age, and nocturnal myoclonus. Familial hyperekplexia is usually autosomal dominant resulting from mutations in the inhibitory glycine receptor subunit alpha 1 (GLRA1) gene on chromosome 5q. We identified a 3-generation family with progressively severe phenotypes of hyperekplexia. All affected family members were found to be heterozygous for a novel arginine271proline mutation in GLRA1. Long-term follow-up of the affected members of the third generation, now aged 6 and 7 years, reveals enhanced startle responses and persistent hypertonia of the extremities without clonus or a catch, tight heel cords and abnormal toe-walking gait, and plantar flexor reflexes. The 7-year-old child recently reponded well to a benzodiazepine. Future studies are warranted to examine whether this new missense mutation is solely responsible for this atypical phenotype.

Cell-adhesion molecules play critical roles in brain development, as well as maintaining synaptic structure, function, and plasticity. Here we have found the disruption of two genes encoding putative cell-adhesion molecules, CDH15 (cadherin superfamily) and KIRREL3 (immunoglobulin superfamily), by a chromosomal translocation t(11;16) in a female patient with intellectual disability (ID). We screened coding regions of these two genes in a cohort of patients with ID and controls and identified four nonsynonymous CDH15 variants and three nonsynonymous KIRREL3 variants that appear rare and unique to ID. These variations altered highly conserved residues and were absent in more than 600 unrelated patients with ID and 800 control individuals. Furthermore, in vivo expression studies showed that three of the CDH15 variations adversely altered its ability to mediate cell-cell adhesion. We also show that in neuronal cells, human KIRREL3 colocalizes and interacts with the synaptic scaffolding protein, CASK, recently implicated in X-linked brain malformation and ID. Taken together, our data suggest that alterations in CDH15 and KIRREL3, either alone or in combination with other factors, could play a role in phenotypic expression of ID in some patients.