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The Einstein Telescope (ET), a proposed next-generation gravitational wave (GW) observatory, will expand the reach of GW astronomy of stellar-mass compact object binaries to unprecedented distances, enhancing opportunities for multi-messenger observations. Here we investigate multi-messenger emission properties of binary neutron star (NSNS) and black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers detectable by ET, providing projections to optimize observational strategies and maximize scientific insights from these sources. Using a synthetic population of compact binary mergers, we model each source's GW signal-to-noise ratio, sky localization uncertainty, kilonova (KN) light curves in optical and near-infrared bands, fluence of the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission and afterglow light curves across radio, optical, X-ray and very high energy wavelengths. We analyze multi-messenger detectability prospects for ET as a standalone observatory with two different configurations and within a network of next-generation GW detectors. ET will detect over $10^4$ NSNS mergers annually, enabling potential observation of tens to hundreds of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. BHNS mergers have more limited multi-messenger prospects, but joint GW-EM rates will increase by an order of magnitude compared to current-generation instruments. We quantify uncertainties due to the NS equation of state (EoS) and mass distribution of NSNSs, as well as the NS EoS and BH spin for BHNSs. While a single ET will achieve an impressive GW detection rate, the fraction of well-localized events is orders of magnitude lower than in a network with additional detectors. This significantly limits efficient EM follow-up and science cases requiring well-characterized counterparts or early observations. The challenge is even greater for BHNS mergers due to their low EM rate., Comment: Comments are welcome! more...

Astrophysical observations of the cosmos allow us to probe extreme physics and answer foundational questions on our universe. Modern astronomy is increasingly operating under a holistic approach, probing the same question with multiple diagnostics including how sources vary over time, how they appear across the electromagnetic spectrum, and through their other signatures, including gravitational waves, neutrinos, cosmic rays, and dust on Earth. Astrophysical observations are now reaching the point where approximate physics models are insufficient. Key sources of interest are explosive transients, whose understanding requires multidisciplinary studies at the intersection of astrophysics, gravity, nuclear science, plasma physics, fluid dynamics and turbulence, computation, particle physics, atomic, molecular, and optical science, condensed matter and materials science, radiation transport, and high energy density physics. This white paper provides an overview of the major scientific advances that lay at the intersection of physics and astronomy and are best probed through time-domain and multimessenger astrophysics, an exploration of how multidisciplinary science can be fostered, and introductory descriptions of the relevant scientific disciplines and key astrophysical sources of interest., Comment: This white paper is the product of the Third Time-Domain And Multimessenger Astrophysics workshop: Multidisciplinary Science in the Multimessenger Era, hosted by Louisiana State University with additional support from DOE, NSF, and NASA more...

Software is crucial for the advancement of astronomy especially in the context of rapidly growing datasets that increasingly require algorithm and pipeline development to process the data and produce results. However, software has not always been consistently cited, despite its importance to strengthen support for software development. To encourage, streamline, and standardize the process of citing software in academic work such as publications we introduce 'The Software Citation Station': a publicly available website and tool to quickly find or add software citations, Comment: Visit the Software citation station at https://www.tomwagg.com/software-citation-station/ which includes a very easy form to add your own software package! comments welcome! more...

Gravitational wave detectors are observing compact object mergers from increasingly far distances, revealing the redshift evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) -- and soon the black hole-neutron star (BHNS) and binary neutron star (BNS) -- merger rate. To help interpret these observations, we investigate the expected redshift evolution of the compact object merger rate from the isolated binary evolution channel. We present a publicly available catalog of compact object mergers and their accompanying cosmological merger rates from population synthesis simulations conducted with the COMPAS software. To explore the impact of uncertainties in stellar and binary evolution, our simulations use two-parameter grids of binary evolution models that vary the common-envelope efficiency with mass transfer accretion efficiency, and supernova remnant mass prescription with supernova natal kick velocity, respectively. We quantify the redshift evolution of our simulated merger rates using the local ($z\sim 0$) rate, the redshift at which the merger rate peaks, and the normalized differential rates (as a proxy for slope). We find that although the local rates span a range of $\sim 10^3$ across our model variations, their redshift-evolutions are remarkably similar for BBHs, BHNSs, and BNSs, with differentials typically within a factor $3$ and peaks of $z\approx 1.2-2.4$ across models. Furthermore, several trends in our simulated rates are correlated with the model parameters we explore. We conclude that future observations of the redshift evolution of the compact object merger rate can help constrain binary models for stellar evolution and gravitational-wave formation channels., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, link to code https://github.com/Adam-Boesky/Exploring_Parameter_Space, link to data https://gwlandscape.org.au/compas/publication/Q29tcGFzUHVibGljYXRpb25Ob2RlOjYz/ more...

Gravitational-wave detectors are now making it possible to investigate how the merger rate of binary black holes (BBHs) evolves with redshift. In this study, we examine whether the BBH merger rate of isolated binaries deviates from a scaled star formation rate density (SFRD) -- a frequently used model in state-of-the-art research. To address this question, we conduct population synthesis simulations using COMPAS with a grid of stellar evolution models, calculate their cosmological merger rates, and compare them to a scaled SFRD. We find that our simulated rates deviate by factors up to $3.5\times$ at $z\sim0$ and $5\times$ at $z\sim 9$ due to two main phenomena: (i) The formation efficiency of BBHs is an order of magnitude higher at low metallicities than at solar metallicity; and (ii) BBHs experience a wide range of delays (from a few Myr to many Gyr) between formation and merger. Deviations are similar when comparing to a $\textit{delayed}$ SFRD, and even larger (up to $\sim 10\times$) when comparing to SFRD-based models scaled to the local merger rate. Interestingly, our simulations find that the BBH delay time distribution is redshift-dependent, increasing the complexity of the redshift distribution of mergers. We find similar results for simulated merger rates of BHNSs and BNSs. We conclude that the rate of BBH, BHNS, and BNS mergers from the isolated channel can significantly deviate from a scaled SFRD, and that future measurements of the merger rate will provide insights into the formation pathways of gravitational-wave sources., Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, link to code https://github.com/Adam-Boesky/Exploring_Parameter_Space, link to data https://gwlandscape.org.au/compas/publication/Q29tcGFzUHVibGljYXRpb25Ob2RlOjYz/ more...

The existence of merging black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries has been ascertained through the observation of their gravitational wave (GW) signals. However, to date, no definitive electromagnetic (EM) emission has been confidently associated with these mergers. Such an association could help unravel crucial information on these systems, for example, their BH spin distribution, the equation of state (EoS) of NS and the rate of heavy element production. We model the multi-messenger (MM) emission from BHNS mergers detectable during the fourth (O4) and fifth (O5) observing runs of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GW detector network, in order to provide detailed predictions that can help enhance the effectiveness of observational efforts and extract the highest possible scientific information from such remarkable events. Our methodology is based on a population synthesis-approach, which includes the modelling of the signal-to-noise ratio of the GW signal in the detectors, the GW-inferred sky localization of the source, the kilonova (KN) optical and near-infrared light curves, the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission peak photon flux, and the GRB afterglow light curves in the radio, optical and X-ray bands. The resulting prospects for BHNS MM detections during O4 are not promising, with a GW detection rate of $15.0^{+15.4}_{-8.8}$ yr$^{-1}$, but joint MM rates of $\sim 10^{-1}$ yr$^{-1}$ for the KN and $\sim 10^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ for the jet-related emission. In O5 we find an overall increase in expected detection rates by around an order of magnitude, owing to both the enhanced sensitivity of the GW detector network, and the coming online of future EM facilities. Finally, we discuss direct searches for the GRB radio afterglow with large-field-of-view instruments as a new possible follow-up strategy in the context of ever-dimming prospects for KN detection., Comment: Submitted to A&A. 17 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables. Comments are welcome! more...

How many gravitational-wave observations from double compact object mergers have we seen to date? This seemingly simple question surprisingly yields a somewhat ambiguous answer that depends on the chosen data-analysis pipeline, detection threshold and other underlying assumptions. To illustrate this we provide visualizations of the number of existing detections from double compact object mergers by the end of the third observing run (O3) based on recent results from the literature. Additionally, we visualize the expected number of observations from future-generation detectors, highlighting the possibility of up to millions of detections per year by the time next-generation ground-based detectors like Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope come online. We present a publicly available code that highlights the exponential growth in gravitational-wave observations in the coming decades and the exciting prospects of gravitational-wave (astro)physics., Comment: v1 was 1 April ArXiv paper, now accepted in ApJS, See http://www.broekgaarden.nl/floor/wordpress/elementor-967/ for GW videos more...

Population inference of gravitational-wave catalogues is a useful tool to translate observations of black-hole mergers into constraints on compact-binary formation. Different formation channels predict identifiable signatures in the astrophysical distributions of source parameters, such as masses and spins. One example within the scenario of isolated binary evolution is mass-ratio reversal: even assuming efficient core-envelope coupling in massive stars and tidal spin-up of the stellar companion by the first-born black hole, a compact binary with a lighter, non-spinning first-born black hole and a heavier, spinning second-born black hole can still form through mass transfer from the initially more to less massive progenitor. Using current LIGO/Virgo observations, we measure the fraction of sources in the underlying population with this mass-spin combination and interpret it as a constraint on the occurrence of mass-ratio reversal in massive binary stars. We modify commonly used population models by including negligible-spin subpopulations and, most crucially, non-identical component spin distributions. We do not find evidence for subpopulations of black holes with negligible spins and measure the fraction of massive binary stars undergoing mass-ratio reversal to be consistent with zero and $<32\%$ ($99\%$ confidence). The dimensionless spin peaks around $0.2\unicode{x2013}0.3$ appear robust, however, and are yet to be explained by progenitor formation scenarios., Comment: 9 pages, 3 main figures, 1 appendix with 2 figures more...

The spins of merging binary black holes offer insights into their formation history. Recently it has been argued that in isolated binary evolution of two massive stars the firstborn black hole is slowly rotating, whilst the progenitor of the second-born black hole can be tidally spun up if the binary is tight enough. Naively, one might therefore expect that only the less massive black hole in merging binaries exhibits non-negligible spin. However, if the mass ratio of the binary is "reversed" (typically during the first mass transfer episode), it is possible for the tidally spun up second-born to become the more massive black hole. We study the properties of such mass-ratio reversed (MRR) binary black hole mergers using a large set of 560 population synthesis models. We find that the more massive black hole is formed second in $\gtrsim 70\%$ of binary black holes observable by LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA for most model variations we consider, with typical total masses $\gtrsim 20$ M$_{\odot}$ and mass ratios $q = m_2 / m_1 \sim 0.7$ (where $m_1 > m_2$). The formation history of these systems typically involves only stable mass transfer episodes. The second-born black hole has non-negligible spin ($\chi > 0.05$) in up to $25\%$ of binary black holes, with among those the more (less) massive black hole spinning in $0\%$--$80\%$ ($20\%$--$100\%$) of cases, varying greatly in our models. We discuss our models in the context of several observed gravitational-wave events and the observed mass ratio - effective spin correlation., Comment: All code and data publicly available at https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/MRR_Project more...

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties., Comment: 25 pages of which 12 are (rainbow) figures. Main results: Fig 2, 4, 5 and 6. Code/results publicly available at https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/Double-Compact-Object-Mergers. Comments welcome more...

Future searches for gravitational waves from space will be sensitive to double compact objects (DCOs) in our Milky Way. We present new simulations of the populations of double black holes (BHBHs), black hole neutron stars (BHNSs) and double neutron stars (NSNSs) that will be detectable by the planned space-based gravitational wave detector LISA. For our estimates, we use an empirically-informed model of the metallicity dependent star formation history of the Milky Way. We populate it using an extensive suite of binary population-synthesis predictions for varying assumptions relating to mass transfer, common-envelope, supernova kicks, remnant masses and wind mass loss physics. For a 4(10)-year LISA mission, we predict between 30-370(50-550) detections over these variations, out of which 6-154(9-238) are BHBHs, 2-198(3-289) are BHNSs and 3-35(4-57) are NSNSs. We discuss how the variations in the physics assumptions alter the distribution of properties of the detectable systems, even when the detection rates are unchanged. In particular we discuss the observable characteristics such as the chirp mass, eccentricity and sky localisation and how the BHBH, BHNS and NSNS populations can be distinguished, both from each other and from the more numerous double white dwarf population. We further discuss the possibility of multi-messenger observations of pulsar populations with the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) and assess the benefits of extending the LISA mission., Comment: Submitted. All code for reproducing results and figures is available https://github.com/TomWagg/detecting-DCOs-in-LISA. Data is available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4699712 more...

The astrophysical origins of $r$-process elements remain elusive. Neutron star mergers (NSMs) and special classes of core-collapse supernovae (rCCSNe) are leading candidates. Due to these channels' distinct characteristic timescales (rCCSNe: prompt, NSMs: delayed), measuring $r$-process enrichment in galaxies of similar mass, but differing star-formation durations might prove informative. Two recently discovered disrupted dwarfs in the Milky Way's stellar halo, Kraken and \textit{Gaia}-Sausage Enceladus (GSE), afford precisely this opportunity: both have $M_{\star}\approx10^{8}M_{\rm{\odot}}$, but differing star-formation durations of ${\approx}2$ Gyrs and ${\approx}3.6$ Gyrs. Here we present $R\approx50,000$ Magellan/MIKE spectroscopy for 31 stars from these systems, detecting the $r$-process element Eu in all stars. Stars from both systems have similar [Mg/H]$\approx-1$, but Kraken has a median [Eu/Mg]$\approx-0.1$ while GSE has an elevated [Eu/Mg]$\approx0.2$. With simple models we argue NSM enrichment must be delayed by $500-1000$ Myrs to produce this difference. rCCSNe must also contribute, especially at early epochs, otherwise stars formed during the delay period would be Eu-free. In this picture, rCCSNe account for $\approx50\%$ of the Eu in Kraken, $\approx25\%$ in GSE, and $\approx15\%$ in dwarfs with extended star-formation durations like Sagittarius. The inferred delay time for NSM enrichment is $10-100\times$ longer than merger delay times from stellar population synthesis -- this is not necessarily surprising because the enrichment delay includes time taken for NSM ejecta to be incorporated into subsequent generations of stars. For example, this may be due to natal kicks that result in $r$-enriched material deposited far from star-forming gas, which then takes $\approx10^{8}-10^{9}$ years to cool in these galaxies., Comment: Submitted to ApJL. Figure 3 shows the key empirical result, and Figure 5 summarizes the proposed scenario. Comments very welcome! more...

Compact Object Mergers: Population Astrophysics and Statistics (COMPAS; https://compas.science) is a public rapid binary population synthesis code. COMPAS generates populations of isolated stellar binaries under a set of parametrized assumptions in order to allow comparisons against observational data sets, such as those coming from gravitational-wave observations of merging compact remnants. It includes a number of tools for population processing in addition to the core binary evolution components. COMPAS is publicly available via the github repository https://github.com/TeamCOMPAS/COMPAS/, and is designed to allow for flexible modifications as evolutionary models improve. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of COMPAS. It is a living document which will be updated as new features are added to COMPAS; the current document describes COMPAS v02.21.00., Comment: Code publicly available via https://compas.science . Minor updates to match version accepted to ApJS more...

In this work we study the formation of the first two black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers detected in gravitational waves (GW200115 and GW200105) from massive stars in wide isolated binary systems - the isolated binary evolution channel. We use 560 BHNS binary population synthesis model realizations from Broekgaarden et al. (2021a) and show that the system properties (chirp mass, component masses and mass ratios) of both GW200115 and GW200105 match predictions from the isolated binary evolution channel. We also show that most model realizations can account for the local BHNS merger rate densities inferred by LIGO-Virgo. However, to simultaneously also match the inferred local merger rate densities for BHBH and NSNS systems we find we need models with moderate kick velocities ($\sigma\lesssim 10^2\,\rm{km}\,\rm{s}^{-1}$) or high common-envelope efficiencies ($\alpha_{\rm{CE}}\gtrsim 2$) within our model explorations. We conclude that the first two observed BHNS mergers can be explained from the isolated binary evolution channel for reasonable model realizations., Comment: Accepted to ApJ Letters, all code and data is publicly available at: https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/NSBH_GW200105_and_GW200115 more...

Gravitational-wave detections are enabling measurements of the rate of coalescences of binaries composed of two compact objects -- neutron stars and/or black holes. The coalescence rate of binaries containing neutron stars is further constrained by electromagnetic observations, including Galactic radio binary pulsars and short gamma-ray bursts. Meanwhile, increasingly sophisticated models of compact objects merging through a variety of evolutionary channels produce a range of theoretically predicted rates. Rapid improvements in instrument sensitivity, along with plans for new and improved surveys, make this an opportune time to summarise the existing observational and theoretical knowledge of compact-binary coalescence rates., Comment: Invited review article for Living Reviews in Relativity. Updates relative to published version based on recent observations and models. The authors very much welcome further suggestions. All code and data are publicly available via https://zenodo.org/record/7017532 (version 7) more...

Novae are some of the most commonly detected optical transients and have the potential to provide valuable information about binary evolution. Binary population synthesis codes have emerged as the most effective tool for modelling populations of binary systems, but such codes have traditionally employed greatly simplified nova physics, precluding detailed study. In this work, we implement a model treating H and He novae as individual events into the binary population synthesis code \binaryc. This treatment of novae represents a significant improvement on the `averaging' treatment currently employed in modern population synthesis codes. We discuss the evolutionary pathways leading to these phenomena and present nova event rates and distributions of several important physical parameters. Most novae are produced on massive white dwarfs, with approximately 70 and 55 per cent of nova events occurring on O/Ne white dwarfs for H and He novae respectively. Only 15 per cent of H-nova systems undergo a common-envelope phase, but these systems are responsible for the majority of H nova events. All He-accreting He-nova systems are considered post-common-envelope systems, and almost all will merge with their donor star in a gravitational-wave driven inspiral. We estimate the current annual rate of novae in M31 (Andromeda) to be approximately $41 \pm 4$ for H novae, underpredicting the current observational estimate of $65^{+15}_{-16}$, and $0.14\pm0.015$ for He novae. When varying common-envelope parameters, the H nova rate varies between 20 and 80 events per year., Comment: Accepted, MNRAS. 7 Jun 2020: Minor correction regarding AM CVn masses at period bounce, courtesy of P. Neuteufel more...

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $ \gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $ \gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations., Comment: 38 pages, 18 figures, accepted to MNRAS. The authors welcome suggestions and feedback. All data and code to reproduce the results in this paper are publicly available more...

Close double neutron stars have been observed as Galactic radio pulsars, while their mergers have been detected as gamma-ray bursts and gravitational-wave sources. They are believed to have experienced at least one common-envelope episode during their evolution prior to double neutron star formation. In the last decades there have been numerous efforts to understand the details of the common-envelope phase, but its computational modelling remains challenging. We present and discuss the properties of the donor and the binary at the onset of the Roche-lobe overflow leading to these common-envelope episodes as predicted by rapid binary population synthesis models. These properties can be used as initial conditions for detailed simulations of the common-envelope phase. There are three distinctive populations, classified by the evolutionary stage of the donor at the moment of the onset of the Roche-lobe overflow: giant donors with fully-convective envelopes, cool donors with partially-convective envelopes, and hot donors with radiative envelopes. We also estimate that, for standard assumptions, tides would not circularise a large fraction of these systems by the onset of Roche-lobe overflow. This makes the study and understanding of eccentric mass-transferring systems relevant for double neutron star populations., Comment: 26 pages, 10 figures. Includes bug fix. Two new figures and an appendix added more...

Gravitational-wave observations of double compact object (DCO) mergers are providing new insights into the physics of massive stars and the evolution of binary systems. Making the most of expected near-future observations for understanding stellar physics will rely on comparisons with binary population synthesis models. However, the vast majority of simulated binaries never produce DCOs, which makes calculating such populations computationally inefficient. We present an importance sampling algorithm, STROOPWAFEL, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest. We implement the algorithm in the binary population synthesis code COMPAS, and compare the efficiency of our implementation to the standard method of Monte Carlo sampling from the birth probability distributions. STROOPWAFEL finds $\sim$25-200 times more DCO mergers than the standard sampling method with the same simulation size, and so speeds up simulations by up to two orders of magnitude. Finding more DCO mergers automatically maps the parameter space with far higher resolution than when using the traditional sampling. This increase in efficiency also leads to a decrease of a factor $\sim$3-10 in statistical sampling uncertainty for the predictions from the simulations. This is particularly notable for the distribution functions of observable quantities such as the black hole and neutron star chirp mass distribution, including in the tails of the distribution functions where predictions using standard sampling can be dominated by sampling noise., Comment: Accepted. Data and scripts to reproduce main results is publicly available. The code for the STROOPWAFEL algorithm will be made publicly available. Early inquiries can be addressed to the lead author more...