Search

Purpose: Transcription factor 3 (TCF3) encodes 2 transcription factors generated by alternative splicing, E12 and E47, which contribute to early lymphocyte differentiation. In humans, autosomal dominant (AD) E47 transcription factor deficiency is an inborn error of immunity characterized by B-cell deficiency and agammaglobulinemia. Only the recurrent de novo p.E555K pathogenic variant has been associated with this disease and acts via a dominant-negative (DN) mechanism. In this study, we describe the first Asian patient with agammaglobulinemia caused by the TCF3 p.E555K variant and provide insights into the structure and function of this variant. Methods: TCF3 variant was identified by inborn errors of immunity-related gene panel sequencing. The variant E555K was characterized by alanine scanning of the E47 basic region and comprehensive mutational analysis focused on position 555. Results: The patient was a 25-year-old male with B-cell deficiency, agammaglobulinemia, and mild facial dysmorphic features. We confirmed the diagnosis of AD E47 transcription factor deficiency by identifying a heterozygous missense variant, c.1663 G>A; p.E555K, in TCF3. Alanine scanning of the E47 basic region revealed the structural importance of position 555. Comprehensive mutational analysis focused on position 555 showed that only the glutamate-to-lysine substitution had a strong DN effect. 3D modeling demonstrated that this variant not only abolished hydrogen bonds involved in protein‒DNA interactions, but also inverted the charge on the surface of the E47 protein. Conclusions: Our study reveals the causative mutation hotspot in the TCF3 DN variant and highlights the weak negative selection associated with the TCF3 gene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a case study of a Japanese female patient with autosomal dominant TCF3 deficiency, a genetic disorder that affects B-cell development and leads to immunodeficiency. The patient had a unique immunoglobulin profile compared to previously reported cases, with elevated serum IgA levels and decreased serum IgG, IgM, and IgE levels. The patient also experienced episodes of anemia and pure red cell aplasia. Treatment with immunoglobulin replacement therapy was initiated to manage the immunodeficiency. The article suggests that the atypical immunoglobulin profile may be due to a small number of aberrant B-cells. The article also discusses the potential involvement of TCF3 in T-cell differentiation and the need for continuous evaluation of the patient's cellular immunity. [Extracted from the article]

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy for a central bank digital currency rule with traditional monetary policy in an open environment. We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium small open model economy with interest-bearing central bank digital currency assets. The redistribution of asset holdings and the change in asset price are the two pathways through which a retail central bank digital currency rule under the traditional monetary policy affects the macroeconomy. Fiat's digital and traditional monetary policies complement one another in lowering macroeconomic fluctuations. As a result, the real exchange rate, current accounts, and consumption are more stable in transmitting foreign shocks. These results occur when price-based or quantitative-based fiat digital monetary policy parallels traditional price-based monetary policy.

In this study, systemic risk in the Chinese economy between 2012 and 2023 has been investigated. The entire dataset is divided into three time windows to help comprehend the dynamics of financial markets. Deploying the tools of graph theory and Granger causality, as well as the composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS) on five financial markets including money market, bond market, equity market, foreign exchange market, and financial intermediaries, the systemic risk propagation has been analyzed among these financial markets. The results reveal that the increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market can be attributed to the rise in volatility and risk in the equity market, bond market, and financial intermediaries. Additionally, the examination of the financial markets shows significant fluctuations in the years 2015 and 2022. Consequently, examining these two periods determined that financial turbulence in the money market was the primary source of systemic risk. Moreover, it can have widespread propagation effects on other financial markets. These findings also emphasized the importance of monitoring and controlling the money market and its interactions with other parts of the financial system to reduce propagation risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Yield curve momentum is primarily due to changes in the level factor of yields. Because yield changes are partly induced by changes in the federal funds rate, yield curve momentum is related to post-FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announcement drift. The momentum factor is unspanned by the information in the term structure today and is hence inconsistent with standard term structure, macrofinance, and behavioral models. I argue that the results are consistent with a model with unpriced longer term dependencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of alterations in the path of monetary policy rates on inflation via the supply side of an emerging economy. Design/methodology/approach: The study employed semi-annual data covering the period 2007S1 to 2020S2 on the inflation rate, the combined outputs of industry and agriculture, the lending rate, and the monetary policy rate. The vector autoregression model was estimated and counterfactual simulation exercises were conducted. Findings: The study revealed that a move from a higher to a lower monetary policy rate regime resulted in a shift in inflation from a higher to a lower regime. In particular, a 200-basis point reduction in the monetary policy rate over the simulation horizon produces a 1.3% fall in the inflation rate over the same period. Research limitations/implications: The study has a limitation due to the unavailability of a long-span dataset on all relevant variables. As a result, it is important to exercise caution when interpreting the study's findings. A potential area for further research is to explore how changes in interest rates impact inflation in the real economy by utilising other multiple-variable time series techniques. Practical implications: It is the opinion of the authors that for inflation in Ghana to move to a lower regime, conscious efforts should be made by the monetary authorities to gradually move from a regime of a high monetary policy rate to a lower one. Social implications: In particular, a 200-basis point reduction in the MPR over the simulation horizon produces a 1.3% fall in the inflation rate over the same period. Originality/value: This study enhances the authors' knowledge of how monetary policy can affect inflation in developing countries through the supply-side channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop a structural model to estimate the current level of the natural rate for a small open economy, featuring a rich set of shocks to provide economic intuition for its underlying drivers. The model follows the New Keynesian tradition with several frictions and is able to draw implications for a monetary policy stance. In contrast to other DSGE models in the literature, this framework includes two main blocks—one related to the foreign sector and one associated with the local economy, linked by the uncovered interest rate parity condition. With this structure, the natural rate is affected by local and external factors, disaggregated in permanent and transitory shocks. Using Bayesian techniques, the model estimates the natural interest rate for two example cases, Mexico and Canada, considering data from these economies and the United States. Results show that the US economy is relevant to explaining natural rates in both countries. For the Mexican case, the drivers are shocks to the US risk premium and the marginal efficiency of investment, as well as country risk premium variations. For Canada, shocks to the households’ discount factor play an important role.

In this study we evaluate a national economic model using a system dynamics approach. We use a set of macroeconomic data for a transition economy to validate the model behaviour in the past, and then simulate the alternative paths of key macroeconomic variables. Instead of studying only a fraction of the economy, or using simple and abstract models, we build a large-scale national economic model. As the study is based on system dynamics information feedback, it provides additional insights about the macroeconomic effects of the economic policy, making it a valuable tool for economic policy analysis. Such insights are instrumental for understanding the total effects of economic policies and their full economic consequences. To demonstrate this, we have simulated one actual economic policy intervention and its alternative scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting is an attractive topic in every field of study because no one knows the exact nature of the underlying phenomena, but it can be guessed using mathematical functions. As the world progresses towards technology and betterment, algorithms are updated to understand the nature of ongoing phenomena. Machine learning (ML) algorithms are an updated phenomenon used in every task aspect. Real exchange rate data is assumed to be one of the significant components of the business market, which plays a pivotal role in learning market trends. In this work, machine learning models, i.e., the Multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), Extreme learning machine (ELM) model and classical time series models are used, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) model to model and predict the real exchange rate data set (REER). The data under consideration is from January 2019 to June 2022 and comprises 864 observations. This study split the data set into training and testing and applied all stated models. This study selects a model that meets the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) criteria. This model was selected as the best candidate model to predict the behaviour of the real exchange rate data set.

The article analyzes the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Mexico. We calibrated a semi-structural model for a small open economy, based on Aguilar and Ramírez-Bulos (2018), for Mexico by using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4. The fiscal policy block models the fiscal deficit depending on output, an endogenous sovereign risk premium, a state-owned oil company, and public debt dynamics with domestic and foreign components. We assumed a fiscal rule whereby the deficit has an upper bound. The monetary policy follows a Taylor rule. We study the effects of different shocks on the economy, such as a drop in commodity prices, an expansion of public spending, an increase in the risk premium, a hike in the interest rate, and depreciation of the real exchange rate. We show that, remarkably, the risk premium channel transmits threats from the fiscal block to the monetary block, calling for the central bank to stabilize inflation. By contrast, starting at the economy’s steady state, an exogenous monetary policy shock affects the fiscal block mainly through the interest rate’s influence on the debt service, prompting a fiscal response to stabilize deficit.

The basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) family is one of the most conserved transcription factor families that plays an important role in regulating cell growth, differentiation and tissue development. Typically, members of this family form homo- or heterodimers to recognize specific motifs and activate transcription. MyoD is a vital transcription factor that regulates muscle cell differentiation. However, it is necessary for MyoD to form a heterodimer with E-proteins to activate transcription. Even though the crystal structure of the MyoD homodimer has been determined, the structure of the MyoD heterodimer in complex with the E-box protein remains unclear. In this study, we determined the crystal structure of the bHLH domain of the MyoD-E47 heterodimer at 2.05 Å. Our structural analysis revealed that MyoD interacts with E47 through a hydrophobic interface. Moreover, we confirmed that heterodimerization could enhance the binding affinity of MyoD to E-box sequences. Our results provide new structural insights into the heterodimer of MyoD and E-box protein, suggesting the molecular mechanism of transcription activation of MyoD upon binding to E-box protein. • Purification of the MyoD and E47 heterodimer at 1:1 stoichiometry. • Crystal structure of MyoD and E47 heterodimer. • (MyoD:E47) bHLH heterodimer exhibits stronger DNA binding affinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debido a la incertidumbre al respecto, en este artículo se analiza cuál podría ser la postura de política monetaria más adecuada para México: una que mantenga el objetivo de inflación sin afectar negativamente el crecimiento del producto. Se estima el valor de la tasa de interés neutral en México para los próximos cinco años con base en la regla de Taylor y un modelo vectorial autorregresivo (VAR) cointegrado (CVAR). Los resultados sugieren que la tasa de política monetaria se encuentra por arriba de la tasa neutral de interés, lo que, combinado con el potencial recorte de tasas a escala internacional, podría conceder al banco central durante casi todo el sexenio grados de libertad para mantener su tasa por debajo del nivel actual; en el corto plazo se podría recortar la tasa de política monetaria actual en 25 puntos al menos sin arriesgar la convergencia a la meta de inflación.

This paper presents the first-ever comparison of the forecasting power of two types of narratives: articles in a major daily newspaper and regular research reports released by professional forecasters. The applied testing methodology developed in 22 and extended in this paper includes two natural language processing (NLP) techniques – the sentiment analysis and the wordscores model – that are used to convert the text corpora into the NLP indices. These indices are explanatory variables in linear regression, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model and random forest model. The paper extends this methodology by applying Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to the newspaper corpus to filter out articles that discuss topics not relevant for economic and financial analysis. The forecasting test is conducted for two major banks in Poland – BZ WBK and mbank and for major daily newspaper Rzeczpospolita, in Polish. It is shown that mbank narratives have the best forecasting power, while BZ WBK and Rzeczpospolita trade second and third place depending on the model applied. In the vast majority of analyzed cases adding an NLP index to the model improves the forecast accuracy. The answer to the title question is – it depends. Before paying for economic research asset managers are advised to apply methods such as presented in this paper to evaluate whether sell-side research offers any forecasting value in comparison with a newspaper.

This study compares and contrasts the multiple characterizations of mean reversion in financial time series as regards the restrictions they imply. This is accomplished by translating them into statements about an alternative measure, the "Average Crossing Time" or ACT. We argue that the ACT measure, per se, provides not only a useful benchmark for the degree of mean reversion/aversion, but also an intuitive, and easily quantified sense of one time series being "more strongly mean‐reverting/averting" than another. We conclude our discussion by deriving the ACT measure for a wide class of stochastic processes and detailing its statistical characteristics. Our analysis is principally undertaken within a class of well‐understood production based asset pricing models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents three measures of the output gap estimated by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Czech economy. We argue that the most plausible description of the business cycle provides the output gap defined as a deviation from a flexible price level of output, which is generated solely by permanent growth shocks. Our model shows that 2006-2008 overheating of the economy and the following 2008-2009 slump can be largely attributed to development in a world economy and export and import sectors, while the 2012-2013 recession was caused mainly by a combination of adverse domestic demand and cost shocks.

Objective To investigate the relationship of E47, lysyl oxidase like2 protein(LOXL2) expressions with clinicopathologic parameters of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(ESCC) patients. Methods The mRNA and protein levels of E47 and LOXL2 in ESCC and adjacent tissues were detected by qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry method, and their correlation with the clinicopathologic parameters were analyzed. Results The expressions of E47 and LOXL2 mRNA in ESCC tissues were significantly higher than those in adjacent normal tissues (all P < 0.05). The positive expressions of E47 and LOXL2 proteins in ESCC were higher than those in adjacent tissues (all P < 0.05). The expression of E47 protein was closely correlated with invasion depth. The expression of LOXL2 protein was both significantly correlated with the level of histological differentiation and lymphatic metastasis (P < 0.05). E47 protein expression was positively correlated with LOXL2 expression (r=0.582, P < 0.05). Conclusion The mRNA and protein levels of E47 and LOXL-2 are highly expressed in ESCC tissues, and significantly correlated with clinicopathologic characteristics. High expressions of E47 and LOXL2 may promote the invasion and metastasis of ESCC, and they are expected to be the potential biomarkers for the prognosis.

In this paper the authors investigate the statistical properties of some cryptocurrencies by using three layers of analysis: alpha-stable distributions, Metcalfe’s law and the bubble behaviour through the LPPL modelling. The results show, in the medium to long-run, the validity of Metcalfe's law (the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system) for the evaluation of cryptocurrencies; however, in the short-run, the validity of Metcalfe’s law for Bitcoin is questionable. According to the bidirectional causality between the price and the network size, the expected price increase is a driver for more investors to join the Bitcoin network, which may lead in the end to a super-exponential price growth, possibly due to a herding behaviour of investors. The authors then used LPPL models to capture the behaviour of cryptocurrencies exchange rates during an endogenous bubble and to predict the most probable time of the regime switching. The main conclusion of this paper is that Metcalfe’s law may be valid in the long-run, however in the short-run, on various data regimes, its validity is highly debatable.

European interest rates movements are affected by various internal and external factors. This paper studies the link between European and American short- and long-term interest rates. In particular, we consider the forward interest rates coming from euro and dollar IRS term structures. The econometric techniques employed are co-integration, Granger-causality, OLS and GMM. Our results indicate that European remote settlement forward and long-term interest rates are primarily driven by US rates and confirm that the causality acts mainly from the US to the Eurozone. This was true even during the recent periods of European Central Bank quantitative easing. These factors weaken the ECB’s ability to intervene. In fact, we found the impact of American monetary policy on long-term interest rates to be also relevant for European bonds.

This paper presents estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors of Pakistan's economy. The real marginal cost—derived from dynamic translog cost function—labour share of income and output gap are the indicators of economic activity along with past and expected inflation to determine inflation dynamics in each sector. The estimates of the structural parameters of the NKPC are consistent with economic theory in most of the models. Within-sample forecast performance and diagnostic tests indicate that the derived measure of real marginal cost performs better relative to the specifications with labour share of income or output gap. Further, the NKPC based on restrictive Cobb–Douglas production technology with labour input only does not perform better than the models that considers more inputs and intermediate cost. Our results show that the manufacturing is forward-looking sector followed by services and agriculture sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. We find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5% of GDP, but a positive environmental impact with a 6.6% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020. Both decreases are temporary: economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years. CO2 emissions even end up significantly higher after the COVID-19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices. We then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post-COVID recovery. We find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. By maintaining high fossil fuel prices, carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size of the rental housing market in most countries around the globe is small. In this article, we claim that this may be detrimental to macroeconomic stability. We do it in three steps. First, using survey data for Poland, a country with a high homeownership ratio, we discuss microeconomic housing tenure choice determinants. Second, with a panel of 28 EU countries over the period 2004–2017, we provide evidence that the response of house prices to macroeconomic fundamentals is attenuated by the size of the private rental market. Third, we propose a DSGE model in which households satisfy housing needs both by owning and by renting. By simulating the model, we show that reforms enhancing the rental housing market contribute to macroeconomic stability. We conclude by formulating policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]