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High energy resolution DEMETER satellite observations from the Instrument for the Detection of Particle (IDP) are analyzed during an electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC)-induced electron precipitation event. Analysis of an Interval Pulsation with Diminishing Periods (IPDP)-type EMIC wave event, using combined satellite observations to correct for incident proton contamination, detected an energy precipitation spectrum ranging from ∼150 keV to ∼1.5 MeV. While inconsistent with many theoretical predictions of >1 MeV EMIC-induced electron precipitation, the finding is consistent with an increasing number of experimentally observed events detected using lower resolution integral channel measurements on the POES, FIREBIRD, and ELFIN satellites. Revised and improved DEMETER differential energy fluxes, after correction for incident proton contamination shows that they agree to within 40% in peak flux magnitude, and 85 keV (within 40%) for the energy at which the peak occurred as calculated from POES integral channel electron precipitation measurements. This work shows that a subset of EMIC waves found close to the plasmapause, that is, IPDP-type rising tone events, can produce electron precipitation with peak energies substantially below 1 MeV. The rising tone features of IPDP EMIC waves, along with the association with the high cold plasma density regime, and the rapidly varying electron density gradients of the plasmapause may be an important factor in the generation of such low energy precipitation, co-incident with a high energy tail. Our work highlights the importance of undertaking proton contamination correction when using the high-resolution DEMETER particle measurements to investigate EMIC-driven electron precipitation.

The October effect is known as a rapid and strong decrease in the signal amplitude of radio waves with very low frequency (VLF), reflected at the lowest edge of the ionosphere. This strong decrease can be observed only during the daytime. Although the October effect is long known, it is hardly investigated and its mechanism is still unknown. To get closer to a mechanism, we answer why the October effect does not occur during nighttime. Therefore, average characteristics of the October effect are obtained from different VLF transmitter-receiver combinations. The occurrence of the October effect is then compared with characteristics of the neutral atmosphere temperature at VLF reflection heights as it seems to act as a proxy for the unknown mechanism. The temperature shows an asymmetric seasonal behavior at daytime VLF reflection heights poleward of 50°N but not during the nighttime, resulting in the October effect.

Reducing the impact of Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on electrical power networks is an essential step to protect network assets and maintain reliable power transmission during and after storm events. In this study, multiple mitigation strategies are tested during worst-case extreme storm scenarios in order to investigate their effectiveness for the New Zealand transmission network. By working directly with our industry partners, Transpower New Zealand Ltd, a mitigation strategy in the form of targeted line disconnections has been developed. This mitigation strategy proved more effective than previous strategies at reducing GIC magnitudes and durations at transformers at most risk to GIC while still maintaining the continuous supply of power throughout New Zealand. Under this mitigation plan, the average 60-min mean GIC decreased for 27 of the top 30 at-risk transformers, and the total network GIC was reduced by 16%. This updated mitigation has been adopted as an operational procedure in the New Zealand national control room to manage GIC. In addition, simulations show that the installation of 14 capacitor blocking devices at specific transformers reduces the total GIC sum in the network by an additional 16%. As a result of this study Transpower is considering further mitigation in the form of capacitor blockers. We strongly recommend collaborating with the relevant power network providers to develop effective mitigation strategies that reduce GIC and have a minimal impact on power distribution.

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) produced during geomagnetic disturbances pose a risk to the safe operation of electrical power networks. One route to determine the hazard of large and extreme geomagnetic disturbances to national electrical networks is a validated model to predict GIC across the entire network. In this study we improve upon an earlier model for New Zealand, expanding the approach to cover transformers nationwide by making use of multiple storms to develop national scaling factors. We exploit GIC observations which have been made and archived by Transpower New Zealand Ltd, the national grid operator. For some transformers the GIC observations span nearly 2 decades, while for others only a few years. GICs can vary wildly between transformers, particularly due to differences in the electrical network characteristics , transformer properties, and ground conductivity. Modeling these individual transformers is required if an accurate representation of the GIC distribution throughout the network is to be produced. Here we model the GIC during 25 disturbed periods, ranging from large geomagnetic storms to weakly active periods. We adopt the approach of scaling model output using observed GIC power spectra, finding that it improves the correlations between the maximum model and observed GIC by between 10-40% depending on the transformer. The modeled GIC at the 73 transformers which have measured GIC are analyzed to create local and national scaling curves. These are used to allow modeling for transformers without in-situ GIC. We present approaches to utilise this technique for future storms, including non-monitored transformers.

Precipitating auroral and radiation belt electrons are considered an important part of the natural forcing of the climate system. Recent studies suggest that this forcing is underestimated in current chemistry-climate models. The HEPPA III intercomparison experiment is a collective effort to address this point. Here, eight different estimates of medium energy electron (MEE) (urn:x-wiley:21699380:media:jgra56926:jgra56926-math-0001) ionization rates are assessed during a geomagnetic active period in April 2010. The objective is to understand the potential uncertainty related to the MEE energy input. The ionization rates are all based on the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED) on board the NOAA/POES and EUMETSAT/MetOp spacecraft series. However, different data handling, ionization rate calculations, and background atmospheres result in a wide range of mesospheric electron ionization rates. Although the eight data sets agree well in terms of the temporal variability, they differ by about an order of magnitude in ionization rate strength both during geomagnetic quiet and disturbed periods. The largest spread is found in the aftermath of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, governed by different energy limits, the atmospheric penetration depth varies, and some differences related to latitudinal coverage are also evident. The mesospheric NO densities simulated with the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model driven by highest and lowest ionization rates differ by more than a factor of eight. In a follow-up study, the atmospheric responses are simulated in four chemistry-climate models (CCM) and compared to satellite observations, considering both the CCM structure and the ionization forcing.

Variability of the geomagnetic field induces anomalous Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in grounded conducting infrastructure. GICs represent a serious space weather hazard, but are not often measured directly and the rate of change of the magnetic field is often used as a proxy. We assess the correlation between the rate of change of the magnetic field and GICs during Sudden Commencements (SCs), at a location in New Zealand. We observe excellent correlations (r2 ∼ 0.9) between the maximum one-minute rate of change of the field and maximum GIC. Nonetheless, though SCs represent a relatively simple geomagnetic signature, we find that the correspondence systematically depends on several factors. If the SC occurs when New Zealand is on the dayside of the Earth then the magnetic changes are linked to 30% greater GICs than if New Zealand is on the nightside. We investigate, finding that the orientation of the strongest magnetic deflection is important: changes predominantly in the east-west direction drive 36% stronger GICs. Dayside SCs are also associated with faster maximum rates of change of the field at 1 s resolution. Therefore, while the maximum rates of change of the magnetic field and GICs are well correlated, the orientation and sub-one-minute resolution details of the field change are important to consider when estimating the associated currents. Finally, if the SC is later followed by a geomagnetic storm then a given rate of change of the magnetic field is associated with 22% larger GICs, compared to if the SC is isolated.

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are induced in electrical power transmission networks during geomagnetic disturbances. Understanding the magnitude and duration of the GIC expected during worst-case extreme storm scenarios is vital to estimate potential damages and disruptions to power networks. In this study we utilize the magnetic field waveforms measured during three large geomagnetic storms and scale them to expected worst case extreme storm magnitudes. Multiple methods are used to simulate the varying magnitude of the magnetic field across the different latitudes of New Zealand. Modeled GIC is produced for nine extreme storm scenarios, each covering 1-1.5 days in duration. Our industry partners, Transpower New Zealand Ltd provided GIC magnitude and duration levels which represent a risk to their transformers. Using these thresholds various extreme storm scenarios predict between 44 and 115 New Zealand transformers (13-35%) are at risk of damaging levels of GIC. The transformers at risk are largely independent of the extreme storm time-variations, but depend more on the latitude variation scenario. We show that these at-risk transformers are not localized to any specific region of New Zealand but extend across all regions and include most of the major population centers. A peak mean absolute GIC over a 60-minute window of 920-2210 A and an instantaneous one-minute time resolution maximum GIC of 1590-4920 A occurs for a worst-case extreme storm scenario. We believe this is one of the first studies to combine a reasonable worst-case extreme geomagnetic storm with validated GIC modeling and industry-provided GIC risk thresholds.

Observational studies suggest that part of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability may be attributed to the spectral ultra-violet (UV) irradiance variations associated to the 11-year solar cycle. The observed maximum surface pressure response in the North Atlantic occurs 2–4 years after solar maximum, and some model studies have identified that atmosphere–ocean feedbacks explain the multi-year lag. Alternatively, medium-to-high energy electron (MEE) precipitation, which peaks in the declining phase of the solar cycle, has been suggested as a potential cause of this lag. We use a coupled (ocean–atmosphere) climate prediction model and a state-of-the-art MEE forcing to explore the respective roles of irradiance and MEE precipitation on the NAO variability. Three decadal ensemble experiments were conducted over solar cycle 23 in an idealized setting. We found a weak ensemble-mean positive NAO response to the irradiance. The simulated signal-to-noise ratio remained very small, indicating the predominance of internal NAO variability. The lack of multi-annual lag in the NAO response was likely due to lagged solar signals imprinted in temperatures below the oceanic mixed-layer re-emerging equatorward of the oceanic frontal zones, which anchor ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. While there is a clear, yet weak, signature from UV irradiance in the atmosphere and upper ocean over the North Atlantic, enhanced MEE precipitation on the other hand does not lead to any systematic changes in the stratospheric circulation, despite its marked chemical signatures.

For many years, it was believed that resonant interactions between electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves and radiation belt electrons were restricted to electron energies > 1 − 2 MeV. In recent years, however, a growing body of experimental evidence has shown that EMIC waves can cause the scattering loss of electrons down to sub‐MeV energies. Using measurements of trapped electron flux from the GPS satellite constellation, we investigate the ability of EMIC waves to cause significant depletions of radiation belt electron populations between 4 ≤ L* ≤ 5. For the first time, we present statistical evidence demonstrating global decreases in sub‐MeV trapped electron flux in response to EMIC wave activity. Although we find that electron losses extend down to sub‐MeV energies, we also show strong statistical support for the ability of EMIC waves to preferentially cause substantial depletions of ultra‐relativistic electrons in the radiation belts.

The lower-thermosphere–ionosphere (LTI) system consists of the upper atmosphere and the lower part of the ionosphere and as such comprises a complex system coupled to both the atmosphere below and space above. The atmospheric part of the LTI is dominated by laws of continuum fluid dynamics and chemistry, while the ionosphere is a plasma system controlled by electromagnetic forces driven by the magnetosphere, the solar wind, as well as the wind dynamo. The LTI is hence a domain controlled by many different physical processes. However, systematic in situ measurements within this region are severely lacking, although the LTI is located only 80 to 200 km above the surface of our planet. This paper reviews the current state of the art in measuring the LTI, either in situ or by several different remote-sensing methods. We begin by outlining the open questions within the LTI requiring high-quality in situ measurements, before reviewing directly observable parameters and their most important derivatives. The motivation for this review has arisen from the recent retention of the Daedalus mission as one among three competing mission candidates within the European Space Agency (ESA) Earth Explorer 10 Programme. However, this paper intends to cover the LTI parameters such that it can be used as a background scientific reference for any mission targeting in situ observations of the LTI.

In recent years there has been a growing body of direct experimental evidence demonstrating electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves driving energetic electron precipitation (EEP) at unexpectedly low, sub‐MeV energies — as low as only a few hundred keV. EMIC wave driven scattering at these energies has important ramifications for our understanding of not only radiation belt electron dynamics, but also the importance of EMIC‐driven EEP to the chemical balance of the Earth’s atmosphere. In this study, we use three experimentally derived EMIC‐driven EEP flux spectra to investigate the impact of this precipitation on trapped radiation belt fluxes. In doing so, we resolve an apparent contradiction with earlier results derived from trapped electron flux populations that suggested EMIC waves only caused significant scattering at ultra‐relativistic energies. We show that strong sub‐MeV EEP measurements are not necessarily mutually exclusive with a strongly relativistic‐only trapped flux response, as the sub‐MEV peak precipitation is comparatively much smaller than the trapped population at those energies. Using a further six EEP spectra, we also demonstrate that EMIC‐driven EEP can generate significant ionisation of the Earth’s atmosphere above 40km, leading to the loss of mesospheric ozone. We find poor correlation between EMIC‐driven EEP fluxes and geomagnetic activity proxies, such that EMIC‐driven EEP is likely to be poorly specified in the forcing factors of modern coupled‐climate models.

Energetic electron precipitation leads to increased nitric oxide (NO) production in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. NO distributions in the winter time, high‐latitude Southern hemisphere atmosphere during geomagnetic storms are investigated. NO partial columns in the upper mesosphere at altitudes 70–90 km and in the lower thermosphere at 90–110 km have been derived from observations made by the Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE) onboard the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite. The SOFIE NO measurements during 17 geomagnetic storms in 2008–2014 have been binned into selected geomagnetic latitude and geographic latitude/longitude ranges. The regions above Antarctica showing the largest instantaneous NO increases coincide with high fluxes of 30–300 keV precipitating electrons from measurements by the second generation Space Environment Monitor (SEM‐2) Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument (MEPED) on the Polar orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES). Significant NO increases over the Antarctic Peninsula are likely due to precipitation of >30 keV electrons from the radiation belt slot region. NO transport is estimated using Horizontal Wind Model (HWM14) calculations. In the upper mesosphere strong eastward winds (daily mean zonal wind speed ~20–30 ms‐1 at 80 km) during winter transport NO‐enriched air away from source regions 1–3 days following the storms. Mesospheric winds also introduce NO poor air into the source regions, quenching initial NO increases. Higher up, in the lower thermosphere, weaker eastward winds (~5–10 ms‐1 at 100 km) are less effective at redistributing NO zonally.

Recent years have seen debate regarding the ability of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves to drive EEP (energetic electron precipitation) into the Earth's atmosphere. Questions still remain regarding the energies and rates at which these waves are able to interact with electrons. Many studies have attempted to characterize these interactions using simulations; however, these are limited by a lack of precise information regarding the spatial scale size of EMIC activity regions. In this study we examine a fortuitous simultaneous observation of EMIC wave activity by the RBSP‐B and Arase satellites in conjunction with ground‐based observations of EEP by a subionospheric VLF network. We describe a simple method for determining the longitudinal extent of the EMIC source region based on these observations, calculating a width of 0.75 hr MLT and a drift rate of 0.67 MLT/hr. We describe how this may be applied to other similar EMIC wave events.

Relativistic electron microbursts are an important electron loss process from the radiation belts into the atmosphere. These precipitation events have been shown to significantly impact the radiation belt fluxes and atmospheric chemistry. In this study we address a lack of knowledge about the relativistic microburst intensity using measurements of 21,746 microbursts from the Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX). We find that the relativistic microburst intensity increases as we move inward in L, with a higher proportion of low‐intensity microbursts (<2,250 [MeV cm2 sr s]−1) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region. The mean microburst intensity increases by a factor of 1.7 as the geomagnetic activity level increases and the proportion of high‐intensity relativistic microbursts (>2,250 [MeV cm2 sr s]−1) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region increases as geomagnetic activity increases, consistent with changes in the whistler mode chorus wave activity. Comparisons between relativistic microburst properties and trapped fluxes suggest that the microburst intensities are not limited by the trapped flux present alongside the scattering processes. However, microburst activity appears to correspond to the changing trapped flux; more microbursts occur when the trapped fluxes are enhancing, suggesting that microbursts are linked to processes causing the increased trapped fluxes. Finally, modeling of the impact of a published microburst spectra on a flux tube shows that microbursts are capable of depleting <500‐keV electrons within 1 hr and depleting higher‐energy electrons in 1–23 hr.

The Ku-band microwave frequencies (10.70-14.25GHz) overlap emissions from ozone (O3) at 11.072GHz and hydroxyl radical (OH) at 13.441GHz. These important chemical species in the polar middle atmosphere respond strongly to high-latitude geomagnetic activity associated with space weather. Atmospheric model calculations predict that energetic electron precipitation (EEP) driven by magnetospheric substorms produces large changes in polar mesospheric O3 and OH. The EEP typically peaks at geomagnetic latitudes of ĝ°1/465ĝ° and evolves rapidly with time longitudinally and over the geomagnetic latitude range 60-80ĝ°. Previous atmospheric modelling studies have shown that during substorms OH abundance can increase by more than an order of magnitude at 64-84km and mesospheric O3 losses can exceed 50%. In this work, an atmospheric simulation and retrieval study has been performed to determine the requirements for passive microwave radiometers capable of measuring diurnal variations in O3 and OH profiles from high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and Antarctic locations to verify model predictions. We show that, for a 11.072GHz radiometer making 6h spectral measurements with 10kHz frequency resolution and root-mean-square baseline noise of 1mK, O3 could be profiled over 8×10-4-0.22hPa (ĝ°1/498-58km) with 10-17km height resolution and ĝ°1/41ppmv uncertainty. For the equivalent 13.441GHz measurements with vertical sensor polarisation, OH could be profiled over 3×10-3-0.29 hPa (ĝ°1/490-56km) with 10-17km height resolution and ĝ°1/43ppbv uncertainty. The proposed observations would be highly applicable to studies of EEP, atmospheric dynamics, planetary-scale circulation, chemical transport, and the representation of these processes in polar and global climate models. Such observations would provide a relatively low-cost alternative to increasingly sparse satellite measurements of the polar middle atmosphere, extending long-term data records and also providing "ground truth" calibration

One of the key challenges in polar middle atmosphere research is to quantify the total forcing by energetic particle precipitation (EPP) and assess the related response over solar cycle time scales. This is especially true for electrons having energies between about 30 keV and 1 MeV, so-called medium-energy electrons (MEE), where there has been a persistent lack of adequate description of MEE ionization in chemistry-climate simulations. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and include EPP forcing by solar proton events, auroral electron precipitation, and a recently developed model of MEE precipitation. We contrast our results from three ensemble simulations (147 years) in total with those from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in order to investigate the importance of a more complete description of EPP to the middle atmospheric ozone, odd hydrogen, and odd nitrogen over decadal time scales. Our results indicate average EPP-induced polar ozone variability of 12–24% in the mesosphere, and 5–7% in the middle and upper stratosphere. This variability is in agreement with previously published observations. Analysis of the simulation results indicate the importance of inclusion of MEE in the total EPP forcing: In addition to the major impact on the mesosphere, MEE enhances the stratospheric ozone response by a factor of 2. In the Northern Hemisphere, where wintertime dynamical variability is larger than in the Southern Hemisphere, longer simulations are needed in order to reach more robust conclusions.

Ozonesonde data from four sites are analyzed in relation to 191 solar protons events (SPEs) from 1989-2016. Analysis shows ozone depletion (~10-35 km altitude) commencing following the SPEs. Seasonally-corrected ozone data demonstrate that depletions occur only in winter/early-spring above sites where the northern hemisphere polar vortex (PV) can be present. A rapid reduction in stratospheric ozone is observed with the maximum decrease occurring ~10-20 days after SPEs. Ozone levels remain depleted in excess of 30 days. No depletion is observed above sites completely outside the PV. No depletion is observed in relation to 191 random epochs at any site at any time of year. Results point to the role of indirect ozone destruction, most likely via the rapid descent of long-lived NOx species in the PV during the polar winter.

It is well known that auroral patterns at the substorm recovery phase are characterized by diffuse or patch structures with intensity pulsation. According to satellite measurements and simulation studies, the precipitating electrons associated with these aurorae can reach or exceed energies of a few hundreds of keV through resonant wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere. However, because of difficulty of simultaneous measurements, the dependency of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) on auroral morphological changes in the mesoscale has not been investigated to date. In order to study this dependency, we have analyzed data from the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar, the Kilpisjärvi Atmospheric Imaging Receiver Array (KAIRA) riometer, collocated cameras, ground-based magnetometers, the Van Allen Probe satellites, Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), and the Antarctic-Arctic Radiation-belt (Dynamic) Deposition-VLF Atmospheric Research Konsortium (AARDDVARK). Here we undertake a detailed examination of two case studies. The selected two events suggest that the highest energy of EEP on those days occurred with auroral patch formation from postmidnight to dawn, coinciding with the substorm onset at local midnight. Measurements of the EISCAT radar showed ionization as low as 65 km altitude, corresponding to EEP with energies of about 500 keV.

On 4 August 2010 a moderate geomagnetic storm occurred with minimum Dst of −65 nT and maximum Kp of 7−. Shortly after the onset of this storm, VLF chorus was observed at Marion Island (L= 2.6). Over time the spectral structure of the chorus transformed into a hiss band spanning the same frequency range. The observation of overlapping chorus and hiss suggests that Marion Island was close to the plasmapause at the time of this event, and provides ground-based observational confirmation of the generation mechanism of plasmaspheric hiss from chorus waves outside of the plasmasphere. Chorus observations at Marion Island were not common during this period of the solar cycle and so this event was investigated in detail. The geomagnetic conditions are discussed and geosynchronous particle data and broadband data from two other stations are presented. Empirical models are employed to predict the location of the plasmapause, and its location is inferred from a knee whistler recorded at Dunedin, New Zealand. These show that Marion Island is in the vicinity of the plasmapause during the event. The event is also compared to chorus observed at similarL after the Halloween storms of 2003. The rarity of the chorus observation is quantified using DEMETER VLF data. The DEMETER data, along with the various ground based VLF measurements, allows us to infer temporal and spatial variations in the chorus source region.

In order to make best use of the opportunities provided by space missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, we determine the response of complementary subionospheric radiowave propagation measurements (VLF), riometer absorption measurements, cosmic noise absorption, and GPS-produced total electron content (vTEC) to different energetic electron precipitation (EEP). We model the relative sensitivity and responses of these instruments to idealized monoenergetic beams of precipitating electrons, and more realistic EEP spectra chosen to represent radiation belts and substorm precipitation. In the monoenergetic beam case, we find riometers are more sensitive to the same EEP event occurring during the day than during the night, while subionospheric VLF shows the opposite relationship, and the change in vTEC is independent. In general, the subionospheric VLF measurements are much more sensitive than the other two techniques for EEP over 200 keV, responding to flux magnitudes two-three orders of magnitude smaller than detectable by a riometer. Detectable TEC changes only occur for extreme monoenergetic fluxes. For the radiation belt EEP case, clearly detectable subionospheric VLF responses are produced by daytime fluxes that are ∼10 times lower than required for riometers, while nighttime fluxes can be 10,000 times lower. Riometers are likely to respond only to radiation belt fluxes during the largest EEP events and vTEC is unlikely to be significantly disturbed by radiation belt EEP. For the substorm EEP case both the riometer absorption and the subionospheric VLF technique respond significantly, as does the change in vTEC, which is likely to be detectable at ∼3–4 total electron content units.

Worldwide lightning location (WWLL) using only 30 lightning sensors has been successfully achieved by using only VLF propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide (EIWG). Ground propagation or mixed "sky" and ground propagation is avoided by requiring evidence of Earth-ionosphere waveguide dispersion. A further requirement is that the lightning strike must be inside the perimeter defined by the lightning sensor sites detecting the stroke. Under these conditions, the time and the location of the stroke can be determined, along with the rms errors. Lightning strokes with errors exceeding 30 Ps or To assist with identifying impulses from the same lightning stroke, the lightning sensor threshold is automatically adjusted to allow an average detection rate of three per second. This largely limits detection to the strongest 4% of all lightning strokes, of which about 40% meet the accuracy requirements for time and location.

For some time theoretical modeling has shown that electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves should play an important role in the loss of relativistic electrons from the radiation belts, through precipitation into the atmosphere. Up to now there has been limited experimental evidence for relativistic electron precipitation driven by EMIC waves. In this paper we present case studies of events showing EMIC waves, observed by ground-based pulsation magnetometers, which are linked to strong responses in a subionospheric precipitation monitor. This response is consistent with precipitation occurring near the plasmapause, where EMIC waves may resonate with relativistic electrons. At the same time there is only a weak response in a co-located riometer chain, as expected for relativistic electron precipitation that penetrates deeply into the atmosphere.

The stratospheric and mesospheric impacts of the solar proton events of January 2005 are studied here using ion and neutral chemistry modeling and subionospheric radio wave propagation observations and modeling. This period includes three SPEs, among them an extraordinary solar proton storm on 20 January, during which the >100 MeV proton fluxes were unusually high, making this event the hardest in solar cycle 23. The radio wave results show a significant impact to the lower ionosphere/middle atmosphere from the hard spectrum event of 20 January with a sudden radio wave amplitude decrease of about 10 dB. Results from the Sodankyla Ion and Neutral Chemistry model predict large impacts on the mesospheric NOx (400-500%) and ozone (-30 to -40% NH, -15% SH) in both the northern (winter) and the southern (summer) polar regions. The direct stratospheric effects, however, are only about 10- 20% enhancement in NOx, which result in -1% change in O-3. Imposing a much larger extreme SPE lasting 24 hours rather than just 1 hour produced only about 5% ozone depletion in the stratosphere. Only a massive hard-spectra SPE with high-energy fluxes over ten times larger than observed here (>30 MeV fluence of 1.0 x 10(9) protons/cm(2)), as, e. g., the Carrington event of 1859 (>30 MeV fluence of 1.9 x 10(10) protons/cm(2)), could presumably produce significant in situ impacts on stratospheric ozone.

Geosynchronous Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL-97A) satellite particle data, riometer data, and radio wave data recorded at high geomagnetic latitudes in the region south of Australia and New Zealand are used to perform the first complete modeling study of the effect of substorm electron precipitation fluxes on low-frequency radio wave propagation conditions associated with dispersionless substorm injection events. We find that the precipitated electron energy spectrum is consistent with an e-folding energy of 50 keV for energies <400 keV but also contains higher fluxes of electrons from 400 to 2000 keV. To reproduce the peak subionospheric radio wave absorption signatures seen at Casey (Australian Antarctic Division), and the peak riometer absorption observed at Macquarie Island, requires the precipitation of 50-90% of the peak fluxes observed by LAM+NL-97A. Additionally, there is a concurrent and previously unreported substorm signature at L< 2.8, observed as a substorm-associated phase advance on radio waves propagation between Australia and New Zealand. Two mechanisms are discussed to explain the phase advances. We find that the most likely mechanism is the triggering of wave-induced electron precipitation caused by waves enhanced in the plasmasphere during the substorm and that either plasmaspheric hiss waves or electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves are a potential source capable of precipitationg the type of high-energy electron spectrum required. However, the presence of these waves at such low L shells has not been confirmed in this study.

Enhancements of drift-loss cone fluxes in the inner radiation belt have been observed to coincide with the geographic location of the powerful VLF transmitter NWC. In this paper we expand upon the earlier study to examine the occurrence frequency of drift-loss cone enhancements observed above transmitters and the intensity of the flux enhancements and to demonstrate the linkage to transmitter operation. Our study has confirmed the strong dependence that these enhancements have upon nighttime ionospheric conditions. No enhancements were observed during daytime periods, consistent with the increased ionospheric absorption. We have also confirmed the persistent occurrence of the wisp features east of the NWC transmitter. The enhancements are initially observed within a few degrees west of NWC and are present in 95% of the nighttime orbital data east of the transmitter for time periods when the transmitter is broadcasting. No enhancements are observed when NWC is not broadcasting. This provides conclusive evidence of the linkage between these drift-loss cone electron flux enhancements and transmissions from NWC. When contrasted with periods when NWC is nonoperational, there are typically similar to 430 times more 100-260 keV resonant electrons present in the drift-loss cone across L = 1.67-1.9 owing to NWC transmissions. There are almost no wisp-like enhancements produced by the transmitter NPM, despite its low-latitude location and relatively high output power. The lack of any wisp enhancement for L < 1.6 suggests that nonducted propagation is an inefficient mechanism for scattering electrons, which explains the lower cutoff in L of the NWC-generated wisps and the lack

For many years it has been suggested that transient luminous events (TLE) occurring over thunderstorms may produce significant modifications to neutral atmospheric chemistry. Some have speculated that large ionisation increases from red sprites, one type of TLE, could result in enhancements of odd nitrogen. In this study we make use of nighttime NO2 observations by the GOMOS instrument to test whether TLE are producing significant NOx enhancements in the middle atmosphere on a regional scale. Comparing regional variations of NO2 with 2-3 order of magnitude variations in lightning activity, we show that there is no significant impact of red sprites, giant jets or blue jets upon NOx levels in the stratosphere and mesosphere (20-70 km), within the detection levels of the instrument. While individual TLE may cause a local variation in NOx, these do not appear to be significant on regional scales (or beyond).

The Carrington event of August/September 1859 was the most significant solar proton event (SPE) of the last 450 years, about four times larger than the solar proton fluence of the largest event from the "spacecraft era'' (August 1972). Recently, much attention has focused upon increasing our understanding of the Carrington event, in order to better quantify the impact of extreme space weather events. In this study the Sodankyla Ion and Neutral Chemistry (SIC) model is used to estimate the impact of the Carrington event to the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere, and the disruption to HF communication. We adopt a reported intensity-time profile for the solar proton flux and examine the relative atmospheric response to different SPE-energy spectra, and in particular, the comparatively soft energy spectrum of the August 1972 or March 1991 SPE which is believed to provide the best representation of the Carrington event. Our calculations indicate that large changes in electron density and atmospheric constituents occur during the period of SPE forcing, depending upon the nature of the spectrum and also on the hemisphere considered. However, the most important SPE-driven atmospheric response is an unusually strong and long-lived O-x decrease in the upper stratosphere (O-x levels drop by similar to 40%) primarily caused by the very large fluxes of >30 MeV protons. This depletion is an indication of the extreme changes possible for the largest SPE. We find that there are comparatively small long-term differences in the atmospheric and ionospheric response between the 3 suggested SPE spectra.

We utilise hydroxyl observations from the MLS/Aura satellite instrument to study the latitudinal extent of particle forcing in the northern polar region during the January 2005 solar proton event. MLS is the first satellite instrument to observe HOx changes during such an event. We also predict the hydroxyl changes with respect to the magnetic latitude by the Sodankyla Ion and Neutral Chemistry model, estimating the variable magnetic cutoff energies for protons using a parameterisation based on magnetosphere modelling and the planetary magnetic index K-p. In the middle and lower mesosphere, HOx species are good indicators of the changes in the atmosphere during solar proton events, because they respond rapidly to both increases and decreases in proton forcing. Also, atmospheric transport has a negligible effect on HOx because of its short chemical lifetime. The observations indicate the boundary of the proton forcing and a transition region, from none to the 'full' effect, which ranges from about 57 to 64 degrees of magnetic latitude. When saturating the rigidity cutoff K-p at 6 in the model, as suggested by earlier studies using observations of cosmic radio noise absorption, the equatorward boundary of the transition region is offset by approximate to 2 degrees polewards compared with the data, thus the latitudinal extent of the proton forcing in the atmosphere is underestimated. However, the model predictions are in reasonable agreement with the MLS measurements when the K-p index is allowed to vary within its nominal range, i.e., from 1 to 9 in the cutoff calculation.

In this study we combine odd nitrogen (NOx) observations from the GOMOS and POAM III instruments with a radio wave ionization index to provide a detailed description of the generation and descent of polar NOx into the upper stratosphere during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2003-2004. The measurements are used to study the relative contributions of ionization due to solar proton events, energetic electron precipitation, and low-energy (1-10 keV) electron precipitation on NOx production, and its subsequent downward transport to the upper stratosphere. We show that NOx generated from the large solar proton storm in October/November 2003 was transported into the upper stratosphere in agreement with model calculations, but that aurorally generated NOx also descended later in the winter. Both periods were highly significant and produced large long-lived decreases in stratospheric ozone once it arrived at those altitudes. The observations made by GOMOS deep into the nighttime polar vortex are critical in differentiating between the stratospheric effects of these two events.

As a consequence of alterations of atmospheric chemical composition due to anthropogenic emissions, Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere are expected to change. A number of authors tried to detect signs of global change in their ionospheric data, but many findings remain controversial. We briefly review long-term trends observed in the critical frequencies of the ionospheric E and F2 layers as well as in the height of the F2-peak, i.e. the layer of maximum electron density. Using 48 years of F2-layer critical frequency data from Sodankyla, Finland, we demonstrate how the sign and amplitude of the detected trends depend upon the choice of model fitted to the data and suggest a method to choose the best possible model.

In this study we report on ground-based observations of short bursts of relativistic electron precipitation (REP), detected by a subionospheric propagation sensor in Sodankyla, Finland during 2005. In two similar to 4 hour case study periods from L = 5.2, around local midnight, several hundred short-lived radio wave perturbations were observed, covering a wide range of arrival azimuths. The vast majority (similar to 99%) of these perturbations were not simultaneous with perturbations on other paths, consistent with a precipitation "rainstorm'' producing ionospheric changes of small spatial sizes around the Sodankyla receiver. The recovery time of these radio wave perturbations are similar to 1.2 s, which is consistent with the modeled effects of a burst of >2 MeV precipitating electrons. This agrees with satellite observations of the microburst energy spectrum. The energetic nature of the precipitation which produces the FAST perturbations suggests that they should be observable in both day and night conditions. While it is widely assumed that satellite-detected REP microbursts are due to wave-particle interactions with very low-frequency chorus waves, the energy spectra predicted by our current models of chorus propagation and wave-particle interaction are not consistent with the experimentally observed radio wave perturbations presented here or previously reported satellite observations of REP microbursts. The results inferred from both the satellite and subionospheric observations, namely the absence of a large, dominant component of <100 keV precipitating electrons, fundamentally disagrees with a mechanism of chorus-driven precipitation. Nonetheless, further work on the modeling of chorus-driven precipitation is required.