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Objectives: Between 2003 and 2019, three trials (randomised controlled trials [RCTs]) in Guinea-Bissau randomised infants to an early 2-dose measles vaccine (MV) schedule at 4 and 9 months vs standard MV at 9 months. The RCTs produced contradictory mortality results; the effect being beneficial in the 2-dose group in the first but tending to have higher mortality in the last two RCTs. We hypothesised that increased frequency of campaigns with oral polio vaccine (C-OPV) explained the pattern. Methods: We performed per-protocol analysis of individual-level survival data from the three RCTs in Cox proportional hazards models yielding hazard ratios (HR) for the 2-dose vs the 1-dose MV group. We examined whether timing of C-OPVs and early administration of OPV0 (birth to day 14) affected the HRs for 2-dose/1-dose MV. Results: The combined HR(2-dose/1-dose) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.00) for children receiving no C-OPV-before-enrolment, but 1.39 (0.97-1.99) for those receiving C-OPV-before-enrolment (homogeneity, P = 0.01). C-OPV-before-enrolment had a beneficial effect in the 1-dose group but tended to have a negative effect in the 2-dose group, especially in females. These effects were amplified further by early administration of OPV0. Conclusion: In the absence of C-OPVs, an early 2-dose MV strategy had beneficial effects on mortality, but frequent C-OPVs may have benefitted the 1-dose group more than the 2-dose MV group, leading to varying results depending on the intensity of C-OPVs.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death worldwide and is estimated to have caused 1.3 million deaths worldwide in 2022. Approximately one quarter of the world's population are infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, of whom up to 10% will progress to developing active TB disease. Achieving the World Health Organization End TB Strategy targets of a 95% reduction in TB mortality and a 90% reduction in TB incidence worldwide by 2035 remains a daunting task. The continuing spread of multidrug-resistant TB adds another obstacle to achieving global TB control. Larger funding pledges coupled with technological advances have recently enabled the enhancement of TB vaccine development efforts. These are yielding a pipeline of over 17 products currently in different stages of clinical trials. Emerging promising phase I and II trial results and advancement to phase III trials have necessitated “vaccine preparedness” in parallel so that a smooth transition from any positive clinical trial result to phase IV evaluation and implementation into policy and practice can follow. Promotion of a human rights–based approach, which recognizes and upholds the fundamental rights of all affected by the disease, is essential to ensure universal access to quality TB vaccines, regardless of their background or personal circumstances.

Summary: We examined the possible non-specific effects of novel mRNA- and adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines by reviewing the randomized control trials (RCTs) of mRNA and adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines. We calculated mortality risk ratios (RRs) for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines vs. placebo recipients and compared them with the RR for adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccine recipients vs. controls. The RR for overall mortality of mRNA vaccines vs. placebo was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63–1.71). In the adenovirus-vector vaccine RCTs, the RR for overall mortality was 0.37 (0.19–0.70). The two vaccine types differed significantly with respect to impact on overall mortality (p = 0.015). The RCTs of COVID-19 vaccines were unblinded rapidly, and controls were vaccinated. The results may therefore not be representative of the long-term effects. However, the data argue for performing RCTs of mRNA and adenovirus-vector vaccines head-to-head comparing long-term effects on overall mortality.

IntroductionRecent reviews summarize evidence that some vaccines have heterologous or non-specific effects (NSE), potentially offering protection against multiple pathogens. Numerous economic evaluations examine vaccines' pathogen-specific effects, but less than a handful focus on NSE. This paper addresses that gap by reporting economic evaluations of the NSE of oral polio vaccine (OPV) against under-five mortality and COVID-19.Materials and methodsWe studied two settings: (1) reducing child mortality in a high-mortality setting (Guinea-Bissau) and (2) preventing COVID-19 in India. In the former, the intervention involves three annual campaigns in which children receive OPV incremental to routine immunization. In the latter, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was developed to estimate the population benefits of two scenarios, in which OPV would be co-administered alongside COVID-19 vaccines. Incremental cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratios were modeled for ranges of intervention effectiveness estimates to supplement the headline numbers and account for heterogeneity and uncertainty.ResultsFor child mortality, headline cost-effectiveness was $650 per child death averted. For COVID-19, assuming OPV had 20% effectiveness, incremental cost per death averted was $23,000–65,000 if it were administered simultaneously with a COVID-19 vaccine

Summary: Background: Early 2-dose measles vaccine (MV) at 4 and 9 months of age vs. the WHO strategy of MV at 9 months of age reduced all-cause child mortality in a previous trial. We aimed to test two hypotheses: 1) a 2-dose strategy reduces child mortality between 4 and 60 months of age by 30%; 2) receiving early MV at 4 months in the presence versus absence of maternal measles antibodies (MatAb) reduces child mortality by 35%. Methods: Single-centre open-label community-based randomised controlled trial in Guinea-Bissau, with 2:1 block-randomisation by sex to a 2-dose (4 + 9 months) vs. 1-dose (9 months) MV strategy. Healthy children were eligible 4 weeks after the 3rd diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine. Before randomisation a blood sample was collected to determine MatAb level. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) were derived from Cox regression in the per protocol population. We tested for interactions with national campaigns with oral polio vaccine (C-OPV). Trial registration: NCT01486355. Findings: Between August 2011-April 17th 2015, 6,636 children were enroled, 6,598[n2-dose=4,397; n1-dose=2,201] were included in the analysis of the primary outcome, The HR(2-dose/1-dose) between 4 and 60 months was 1.38 (95%CI: 0.92–2.06) [deaths: n2-dose=90; n1-dose=33]. Before the 9-month MV and the HR(1-dose/no dose) was 0.94 (0.45–1.96) [deaths: n2-dose=21; n1-dose=11]. The HR(2-dose/1-dose) was 0.81 (0.29–2.22) for children, who received no C-OPV [deaths/children: n2-dose=10/2,801; n1-dose=6/1,365], and 4.73 (1.44–15.6) for children, who received C-OPV before and after enrolment (p for interaction=0.027) [deaths/children: n2-dose=27/1,602; n1-dose=3/837]. In the 2-dose group receiving early MV at 4 months, mortality was 50% (20–68%) lower for those vaccinated in the presence of MatAb vs. the absence of MatAb [deaths/children: nMatAb=51/3,132; nnoMatAb=31/1,028]. Interpretation: The main result contrasts with previous findings but may, though based on a small number of events, be explained by frequent OPV campaigns that reduced the mortality rate, but apparently interacted negatively with early MV. The beneficial non-specific effects of MV in the presence of MatAb should be investigated further. Funding: ERC, Danish National Research Foundation, the Danish Council for Development Research, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Novo Nordisk Foundation, European Union and the Lundbeck Foundation.

Summary: Vaccines have generally been developed with limited insight into their molecular impact. While systems vaccinology enables characterization of mechanisms of action, these tools have yet to be applied to infants, who are at high risk of infection and receive the most vaccines. Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) protects infants against disseminated tuberculosis (TB) and TB-unrelated infections via incompletely understood mechanisms. We employ mass-spectrometry-based metabolomics of blood plasma to profile BCG-induced infant responses in Guinea-Bissau in vivo and the US in vitro. BCG-induced lysophosphatidylcholines (LPCs) correlate with both TLR-agonist- and purified protein derivative (PPD, mycobacterial antigen)-induced blood cytokine production in vitro, raising the possibility that LPCs contribute to BCG immunogenicity. Analysis of an independent newborn cohort from The Gambia demonstrates shared vaccine-induced metabolites, such as phospholipids and sphingolipids. BCG-induced changes to the plasma lipidome and LPCs may contribute to its immunogenicity and inform the development of early life vaccines.

Background: In trials of early two-dose measles vaccination (MV), with the first dose being given before 9 months of age, vaccination in the presence of maternal antibody reduced mortality 2- to 3-fold compared with MV in the presence of no measles antibody. We tested this finding in two historical studies in which the children had received one dose of MV.Methods: We used data from a surveillance study of seroconversion after standard-titer MV (Schwarz strain) (Study 1) and a trial of early medium-titer MV (Edmonston-Zagreb strain) in which a pre-vaccination blood sample had been collected (Study 2). Both studies had control children, who were enrolled under similar conditions, but did not receive effective MV. Study 1 was a natural experiment where all children measles vaccinated during 1 month did not seroconvert and had therefore received an ineffective vaccine. In Study 2, the controls were randomized to an inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). We compared mortality for children with undetectable levels of measles antibody (

Background: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination may have beneficial non-specific effects on child survival, the effects being stronger for children developing a scar. In a prospective cohort study, we examined determinants for not developing a BCG scar within 6 months of vaccination. Methods: Bandim Health Project (BHP) runs a Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in rural Guinea-Bissau. BHP provides BCG at monthly visits. We studied determinants for not developing a BCG scar using binomial regression models to obtain relative risks (RR). Results: From May 2012 until October 2014, BHP nurses vaccinated 2415 infants with BCG. We assessed BCG scar between 6 and 12 months of age for 2156 (89%) of these children and 2115 (98%) had developed a scar. In comparison, among 785 children BCG vaccinated elsewhere, 622 (79%) had a scar, the RR of not having a scar being 10.91 (7.52-15.85) compared with children vaccinated by BHP. Among children vaccinated by BHP, those receiving the Russian BCG strain were more likely not to develop a scar (RR = 2.98 (1.52–5.81)) compared with children receiving Danish BCG strain. Children with no post-injection wheal or a wheal

Background: Live vaccines against measles (MV), tuberculosis (BCG), polio (OPV) and smallpox reduce mortality more than explained by target-disease prevention. The beneficial nonspecific effects (NSEs) of MV are strongest when MV is given in presence of maternal antibodies. We therefore hypothesised that revaccination in presence of prior immunity enhances beneficial NSEs. Methods: Literature search for studies of revaccination and mortality. Findings: In two randomised trials (RCTs), two doses versus one dose of MV reduced all-cause mortality by 63% (95% CI: 23–83%) from 9 to 18 months of age. In a quasi-experimental study two doses before and after 9 months compared with one dose of MV after 9 months of age reduced mortality by 59% (25–81%). BCG-revaccination significantly enhanced BCG's effect against overall child mortality in two RCTs. In a natural experiment study of OPV campaigns over a 13-year-period in Guinea-Bissau, each additional dose of OPV was associated with a 13% (4–21%) reduction in mortality rate. The beneficial NSEs of smallpox vaccination for survival increased significantly with the number of smallpox vaccination scars. Interpretation: Revaccination with live vaccines led to substantial reductions in overall mortality. These findings challenge current understanding of vaccines and may explain the beneficial effects of campaigns with live vaccines.

BackgroundWhole-cell diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis (DTP) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) were introduced to children in Guinea-Bissau in 1981. We previously reported that DTP in the target age group from 3 to 5 months of age was associated with higher overall mortality. DTP and OPV were also given to older children and in this study we tested the effect on mortality in children aged 6–35 months.MethodsIn the 1980s, the suburb Bandim in the capital of Guinea-Bissau was followed with demographic surveillance and tri-monthly weighing sessions for children under 3 years of age. From June 1981, routine vaccinations were offered at the weighing sessions. We calculated mortality hazard ratio (HR) for DTP-vaccinated and DTP-unvaccinated children aged 6–35 months using Cox proportional hazard models. Including this study, the introduction of DTP vaccine and child mortality has been studied in three studies; we made a meta-estimate of these studies.ResultsAt the first weighing session after the introduction of vaccines, 6–35-month-old children who received DTP vaccination had better weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) than children who did not receive DTP; one unit increase in WAZ was associated with an odds ratio of 1.32 (95% CI = 1.13–1.55) for receiving DTP vaccination. Though lower mortality compared with not being DTP-vaccinated was, therefore, expected, DTP vaccination was associated with a non-significant trend in the opposite direction, the HR being 2.22 (0.82–6.04) adjusted for WAZ. In a sensitivity analysis, including all children weighed at least once before the vaccination program started, DTP (±OPV) as the most recent vaccination compared with live vaccines or no vaccine was associated with a HR of 1.89 (1.00–3.55). In the three studies of the introduction of DTP in rural and urban Guinea-Bissau, DTP-vaccinated children had an HR of 2.14 (1.42–3.23) compared to DTP-unvaccinated children; this effect was separately significant for girls [HR = 2.60 (1.57–4.32)], but not for boys [HR = 1.71 (0.99–2.93)] (test for interaction p = 0.27).ConclusionAlthough having better nutritional status and being protected against three infections, 6–35 months old DTP-vaccinated children tended to have higher mortality than DTP-unvaccinated children. All studies of the introduction of DTP have found increased overall mortality.

Background: We examined the introduction of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) in an urban community in Guinea-Bissau in the early 1980s. Methods: The child population had been followed with 3-monthly nutritional weighing sessions since 1978. From June 1981 DTP and OPV were offered from 3 months of age at these sessions. Due to the 3-monthly intervals between sessions, the children were allocated by birthday in a ‘natural experiment’ to receive vaccinations early or late between 3 and 5 months of age. We included children who were

IntroductionMalaria continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) without effective interventions. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine possesses protective non-specific effects, which extend beyond protection against tuberculosis. This study explores whether BCG is associated with protection against malaria in children under the age of 5 years in SSA.MethodsWe used data from the Demographic Health Survey programme, including 34 206 children from 13 SSA countries. BCG status was taken from vaccination cards when present; if not, mother’s recall was used. Presence of malaria was defined as a positive rapid diagnostic test. Maternally reported presence or absence of fever in the previous 2 weeks defined symptomatic status. Multilevel logistic regression was used to account for the two-stage cluster sampling method.ResultsOf the 34 206 children, 12 325 (36.0%) children were malaria positive and 29 766 (87.0%) were BCG vaccinated. After correction for relevant child, maternal and household factors, BCG vaccination was associated with a lower malaria prevalence (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.94, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.98), especially among children of whom BCG information was retrieved from a vaccination card (aORcard=0.88, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.94). Restricting the analysis to children from regions with suboptimal BCG coverage increased the association (aORcard=0.81, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.89). We observed an increasingly beneficial association with each month of age of the child (aORcard=0.996, 95% CI 0.993 to 0.999). BCG associations were similar for asymptomatic (aORcard=0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.92) and symptomatic (aORcard=0.89, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.01) malaria.ConclusionsBCG vaccination is associated with protection against malaria. This protection is highest in regions with suboptimal BCG coverage. These results indicate a possible role for timely BCG vaccination in the protection of malaria and its elimination by reducing the transmission reservoir. If confirmed in further research, our findings have substantial implications for global efforts to reduce malaria burden.

INTRODUCTION:Though still high, the infant mortality rate in Guinea-Bissau has declined. We aimed to identify risk factors including vaccination coverage, for infant mortality in the rural population of Guinea-Bissau and assess whether these risk factors changed from 1992-3 to 2002-3. METHODS:The Bandim Health Project (BHP) continuously surveys children in rural Guinea-Bissau. We investigated the association between maternal and infant factors (especially DTP and measles coverage) and infant mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox regression. We tested for interactions with sex, age groups (defined by current vaccination schedule) and cohort to assess whether the risk factors were the same for boys and girls, in different age groups in 1992-3 and in 2002-3. RESULTS:The infant mortality rate declined from 148/1000 person years (PYRS) in 1992-3 to 124/1000 PYRS in 2002-3 (HR = 0.88;95%CI:0.77-0.99); this decline was significant for girls (0.77;0.64-0.94) but not for boys (0.97;0.82-1.15) (p = 0.10 for interaction). Risk factors did not differ significantly by cohort in either distribution or effect. Mortality decline was most marked among girls aged 9-11 months (0.56;0.37-0.83). There was no significant mortality decline for girls 1.5-8 months of age (0.93;0.68-1.28) (p = 0.05 for interaction). DTP and measles coverage increased from 1992-3 to 2002-3. CONCLUSIONS:Risk factors did not change with the decline in mortality. Due to beneficial non-specific effects for girls, the increased coverage of measles vaccination may have contributed to the disproportional decline in mortality by sex and age group.

In 2013, an estimated 2.8 million newborns died and 2.7 million were stillborn. A much greater number suffer from long term impairment associated with preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, congenital anomalies, and perinatal or infectious causes. With the approaching deadline for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015, there was a need to set the new research priorities on newborns and stillbirth with a focus not only on survival but also on health, growth and development. We therefore carried out a systematic exercise to set newborn health research priorities for 2013–2025.

Background: In 2008, the GAVI Alliance funded the introduction of new vaccines (including pentavalent diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] plus hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type b antigens) in Guinea-Bissau. The introduction was accompanied by increased vaccination outreach services and a more restrictive wastage policy, including only vaccinating children younger than 12 months. We assessed coverage of all vaccines in the Expanded Program on Immunizations before and after the new vaccines' introduction, and the implications on child survival. Methods: This observational cohort study used data from the Bandim Health Project, which has monitored vaccination status and mortality in randomly selected village clusters in Guinea-Bissau since 1990. We assessed the change in vaccination coverage using cohort data from children born in 2007 and 2009; analysed the proportion of children who received measles vaccine after 12 months of age using data from 1999–2006; and compared child mortality after age 12 months in children who had received measles vaccine and those who had not using data from 1999 to 2006. Findings: The proportion of children who were fully vaccinated by 12 months of age was 53% (468 of 878) in the 2007 cohort and 53% (467 of 879) in the 2009 cohort (relative risk [RR] 1·00, 95% CI 0·89–1·11). Coverage of DTP-3 and pentavalent-3 increased from 73% (644 of 878) in 2007 to 81% (712 of 879) in 2009 (RR 1·10, 95% CI 1·04 −1·17); by contrast, the coverage of measles vaccination declined from 71% (620 of 878) to 66% (577 of 879; RR 0·93, 0·85–1·01). The effect of the changes was significantly different for DTP-3 coverage compared with measles vaccine coverage (p=0·002). After 12 months of age, the adjusted mortality rate ratio was 0·71 (95% CI 0·56–0·90) for children who had received measles vaccine compared with those who had not (0·59 [0·43–0·80] for girls and 0·87 [0·62–1·23] for boys). Interpretation: The introduction of the new vaccination programme in 2008 was associated with increased coverage of DTP, but decreased coverage of measles vaccine. In 1999–2006, child mortality was higher in children who had not received measles vaccine than in those who had. Funding: DANIDA, European Research Council, the Danish Independent Research Council, European Union FP7 via OPTIMUNISE, and Danish National Research Foundation.

The mechanisms behind heterologous immunity and non-specific effects of vaccines on mortality are not well understood. We examined associations between cytokine responses and subsequent mortality in low-birth-weight infants in Guinea-Bissau.A low-birth-weight trial randomized children to Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) at birth or later according to local policy. Blood samples were obtained from a sub-group at age 6 weeks. Interleukin (IL)-5, IL-10, IL-13, interferon (IFN)-γ, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were measured in whole-blood cell cultures stimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), phytohaemagglutinin (PHA), or purified protein derivative (PPD). The outcome was mortality between bleeding and 1 year of age. Non-linear associations between cytokine responses and mortality were examined.Cytokine measurements were available from 390 children. The mortality rate (MR) was high (6.8/100 person-years-observation (PYO)). Both low and high cytokine responses to LPS and PHA were associated with high mortality (MR up to 25/100 PYO in the lowest 10% and 9.2/100 PYO in the highest 10%). In BCG-vaccinated children, higher IFN-γ responses to PPD were associated with better survival (MR ratio = 0.43 (0.24-0.77)).Data presented a rare opportunity to explore associations between cytokine responses and mortality. Both low and high cytokine responses were associated with high mortality; a balanced response to invading pathogens seems preferable.

Oral polio vaccine (OPV) is recommended to be given at birth together with BCG vaccine. While we were conducting two trials including low-birth-weight (LBW) and normal-birth-weight (NBW) infants in Guinea-Bissau, OPV was not available during some periods and therefore some infants did not receive OPV at birth, but only BCG. We investigated the effect of OPV given simultaneously with BCG at birth on the immune response to BCG vaccine.We compared the in vitro and the in vivo response to PPD in the infants who received OPV and BCG with that of infants who received BCG only. At age 6 weeks, the in vitro cytokine response to purified protein derivate (PPD) of M. Tuberculosis was reduced in LBW and NBW infants who had received OPV with BCG. In a pooled analysis receiving OPV with BCG at birth was associated with significantly lower IL-13 (p = 0.041) and IFN-gamma (p = 0.004) and a tendency for lower IL-10 (p = 0.054) in response to PPD. Furthermore, OPV was associated with reduced in vivo response to PPD at age 2 months, the prevalence ratio (PR) of having a PPD reaction being 0.75 (0.58-0.98), p = 0.033, and with a tendency for reduced likelihood of having a BCG scar (0.95 (0.91-1.00), p = 0.057)). Among children with a scar, OPV was associated with reduced scar size, the regression coefficient being -0.24 (-0.43-0.05), p = 0.012.This study is the first to address the consequences for the immune response to BCG of simultaneous administration with OPV. Worryingly, the results indicate that the common practice in low-income countries of administering OPV together with BCG at birth may down-regulate the response to BCG vaccine.