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2. Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Pestel, Nico, and Olthaus, Rebecca

Subjects
Economics - General Economics
Abstract

We study the long-term effects of the 2015 German minimum wage introduction and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using data from two waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey allows us to estimate models that account for changes in the minimum wage bite over time. While the introduction mainly affected the labour market in East Germany, the raises are also increasingly affecting low-wage regions in West Germany, such that around one third of regions have changed their (binary) treatment status over time. We apply different specifications and extensions of the classic difference-in-differences approach as well as a set of new estimators that enables for unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results indicate a small negative effect on dependent employment of 0.5 percent, no significant effect on employment subject to social security contributions, and a significant negative effect of about 2.4 percent on marginal employment until the first quarter of 2022. The extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage increases, as well as stronger negative effects on total dependent and marginal employment for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in 2015 and 2019.

Published
2023

4. The Accuracy of Job Seekers' Wage Expectations

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Mahlstedt, Robert, Schmeißer, Aiko, and Wagner, Sophie

Subjects
Economics - General Economics
Abstract

We study the accuracy of job seekers' wage expectations by comparing subjective beliefs to objective benchmarks using linked administrative and survey data. Our findings show that especially job seekers with low objective earnings potential and those predicted to face a penalty compared to their pre-unemployment wage display overly optimistic wage expectations. Moreover, wage optimism is amplified by increased job search incentives and job seekers with overoptimistic wage expectations tend to overestimate their reemployment chances. We discuss the labor market implications of wage optimism, as well as the role of information frictions and motivated beliefs as sources of overoptimism.

Published
2023

13. The IZA evaluation dataset survey : a scientific use file

Author

Arni, Patrick, Caliendo, Marco, Künn, Steffen, Zimmermann, Klaus F., Arni, Patrick, Caliendo, Marco, Künn, Steffen, and Zimmermann, Klaus F.

Abstract

This reference paper describes the sampling and contents of the IZA Evaluation Dataset Survey and outlines its vast potential for research in labor economics. The data have been part of a unique IZA project to connect administrative data from the German Federal Employment Agency with innovative survey data to study the out-mobility of individuals to work. This study makes the survey available to the research community as a Scientific Use File by explaining the development, structure, and access to the data. Furthermore, it also summarizes previous findings with the survey data.

Published
2024

24. Personality characteristics and the decision to hire.

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Fossen, Frank M, and Kritikos, Alexander S

Subjects
POLITICAL entrepreneurship, PERSONALITY, ACADEMIC degrees, TRUST, JOB creation
Abstract

As the policy debate on entrepreneurship increasingly centers on firm growth in terms of job creation, it is important to understand whether the personality of entrepreneurs drives the first hiring in their firms. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze to what extent personality traits influence the probability of becoming an employer. The results indicate that personality matters. Risk tolerance unfolds the strongest influence on hiring, shortening the time until entrepreneurs hire their first employee; the effect size of a one-standard-deviation increase in risk tolerance is similar to that of having a university degree. Moreover, individuals who are more open to experience, more conscientious, and more trustful are more likely to hire upon establishing their business. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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26. Side effects of labor market policies

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Mahlstedt, Robert, van den Berg, Gerard J., Vikström, Johan, Caliendo, Marco, Mahlstedt, Robert, van den Berg, Gerard J., and Vikström, Johan

Abstract

Labor market policies, such as training and sanctions, are commonly used to bring workers back to work. By analogy to medical treatments, exposure to these tools can have side effects. We study the effects on health using individual-level population registers on labor market outcomes, drug prescriptions, and sickness absence, comparing outcomes before and after exposure to training and sanctions. Training improves cardiovascular and mental health, and lowers sickness absence. This is likely to be the result of the instantaneous features of participation, such as the adoption of a more rigorous daily routine, rather than improved employment prospects. Benefits sanctions cause a short-run deterioration of mental health.

Published
2023
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37. Locus of Control and the Preference for Agency

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Cobb-Clark, Deborah A., Silva Goncalves, Juliana, and Uhlendorff, Arne

Subjects
preference for agency, D83, illusion of control, ddc:330, D91, beliefs, locus of control, decision-making, confidence, D87, optimism
Abstract

We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people's preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal-agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually link locus of control to decision- making: (i) preference for agency; (ii) optimism and (iii) confidence regarding the return to effort; and (iv) illusion of control. Knowing the return and cost of stated effort, principals either retain or delegate the right to make an investment decision that generates payoffs for themselves and their agents. Extending the game to the context in which the return to stated effort is unknown allows us to explicitly study the relationship between locus of control and beliefs about the return to effort. We find that internal locus of control is linked to the preference for agency, an effect that is driven by women. We find no evidence that locus of control influences optimism and confidence about the return to stated effort, or that it operates through an illusion of control.

Published
2023

43. Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf individuelle Beschäftigungsbewegungen und betriebliche Lohnstrukturen in den Jahren 2015 bis 2020

Author

Isphording, Ingo E., Caliendo, Marco, Mahlstedt, R., Pestel, Nico, Zimpelmann, Christian, RS: GSBE MORSE, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, and ROA / Labour market and training

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie im Auftrag der Mindestlohnkommission analysiert die Auswirkungen der Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns zum 1. Januar 2015 sowie der Anhebungen zum 1. Januar 2017 und 1. Januar 2019 auf die Zielgrößen Beschäftigungsbewegungen und betriebliche Lohnstrukturen bis einschließlich des Jahres 2020. Als Datenbasis dienen administrative Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, die die Betriebs- und Beschäftigtenebene miteinander verbinden und mit Indikatoren zur Mindestlohnbetroffenheit verknüpft werden. Dies erlaubt die Anwendung ökonometrischer Methoden, die einem Experimentalstandard möglichst nahekommen, so dass die erzielten Ergebnisse eine Interpretation im Sinne von Ursache-Wirkungs-Relationen erlauben. Dazu werden verschiedene Varianten des so genannten Differenz-in-Differenzen-Ansatzes bzw. Eventstudien verwendet.

Published
2022

47. Pandemic Depression: COVID-19 and the Mental Health of the Self-Employed.

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Graeber, Daniel, Kritikos, Alexander S., and Seebauer, Johannes

Subjects
MENTAL depression, FREELANCERS, MENTAL health, COVID-19 pandemic, SCHOOL closings, CRISIS communication
Abstract

We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed people's mental health. Using representative longitudinal survey data from Germany, we reveal differential effects by gender: whereas self-employed women experienced a substantial deterioration in their mental health, self-employed men displayed no significant changes up to early 2021. Financial losses are important in explaining these differences. In addition, we find larger mental health responses among self-employed women who were directly affected by government-imposed restrictions and bore an increased childcare burden due to school and daycare closures. We also find that self-employed individuals who are more resilient coped better with the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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50. Pandemic Depression: COVID-19 and the Mental Health of the Self-Employed

Author

Caliendo, Marco, Graeber, Daniel, Kritikos, Alexander S., and Seebauer, Johannes

Subjects
History, Economics and Econometrics, Polymers and Plastics, L26, Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA), Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, jel:L26, representative longitudinal survey data, gender, ddc:330, Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre, Self-employment, Business and International Management, D31, resilience, J16, I18, 330 Wirtschaft, I14, COVID-19, jel:D31, self-employment, Extern, jel:I18, 300 Sozialwissenschaften::330 Wirtschaft::330 Wirtschaft, jel:J16, PHQ-4 score, mental health
Abstract

We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed people’s mental health. Using representative longitudinal survey data from Germany, we reveal differential effects by gender: whereas self-employed women experienced a substantial deterioration in their mental health, self-employed men displayed no significant changes up to early 2021. Financial losses are important in explaining these differences. In addition, we find larger mental health responses among self-employed women who were directly affected by government-imposed restrictions and bore an increased childcare burden due to school and daycare closures. We also find that self-employed individuals who are more resilient coped better with the crisis., CEPA Discussion Papers; 46

Published
2022

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