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This study presents results from the European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) carbon dioxide (CO2) analysis system where the atmospheric CO2 is controlled through the assimilation of columnaveraged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). The analysis is compared to a free-run simulation (without assimilation of XCO2), and they are both evaluated against XCO2 data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We show that the assimilation of the GOSAT XCO2 product from the Bremen Optimal Estimation Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (BESD) algorithm during the year 2013 provides XCO2 fields with an improved mean absolute error of 0.6 parts per million (ppm) and an improved station-to-station bias deviation of 0.7 ppm compared to the free run (1.1 and 1.4 ppm, respectively) and an improved estimated precision of 1 ppm compared to the GOSAT BESD data (3.3 ppm). We also show that the analysis has skill for synoptic situations in the vicinity of frontal systems, where the GOSAT retrievals are sparse due to cloud contamination. We finally computed the 10-day forecast from each analysis at 00:00 UTC, and we demonstrate that the CO2 forecast shows synoptic skill for the largest-scale weather patterns (of the order of 1000 km) even up to day 5 compared to its own analysis.

Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emission trends using atmospheric measurements to complement national bottom-up inventories. The European Commission (EC), the European Space Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and international experts are joining forces to develop such an operational capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions as a new CO2 service under the EC’s Copernicus program. Design studies have been used to translate identified needs into defined requirements and functionalities of this anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support (CO2MVS) capacity. It adopts a holistic view and includes components such as atmospheric spaceborne and in situ measurements, bottom-up CO2 emission maps, improved modeling of the carbon cycle, an operational data-assimilation system integrating top-down and bottom-up information, and a policy-relevant decision support tool. The CO2MVS capacity with operational capabilities by 2026 is expected to visualize regular updates of global CO2 emissions, likely at 0.05° x 0.05°. This will complement the PA’s enhanced transparency framework, providing actionable information on anthropogenic CO2 emissions that are the main driver of climate change. This information will be available to all stakeholders, including governments and citizens, allowing them to reflect on trends and effectiveness of reduction measures. The new EC gave the green light to pass the CO2MVS from exploratory to implementing phase.

Methane is an important atmospheric greenhouse gas and an adequate understanding of its emission sources is needed for climate change assessments, predictions, and the development and verification of emission mitigation strategies. Satellite retrievals of near-surface-sensitive column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of atmospheric methane, i.e. XCH4, can be used to quantify methane emissions. Maps of time-averaged satellite-derived XCH4 show regionally elevated methane over several methane source regions. In order to obtain methane emissions of these source regions we use a simple and fast data-driven method to estimate annual methane emissions and corresponding 1σ uncertainties directly from maps of annually averaged satellite XCH4. From theoretical considerations we expect that our method tends to underestimate emissions. When applying our method to high-resolution atmospheric methane simulations, we typically find agreement within the uncertainty range of our method (often 100 %) but also find that our method tends to underestimate emissions by typically about 40 %. To what extent these findings are model dependent needs to be assessed. We apply our method to an ensemble of satellite XCH4 data products consisting of two products from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and two products from TANSO-FTS/GOSAT covering the time period 2003–2014. We obtain annual emissions of four source areas: Four Corners in the south-western USA, the southern part of Central Valley, California, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. We find that our estimated emissions are in good agreement with independently derived estimates for Four Corners and Azerbaijan. For the Central Valley and Turkmenistan our estimated annual emissions are higher compared to the EDGAR v4.2 anthropogenic emission inventory. For Turkmenistan we find on average about 50 % higher emissions with our annual emission uncertainty estimates overlapping with the EDGAR emissions. For the region around Bakersfield in the Central Valley we find a factor of 5–8 higher emissions compared to EDGAR, albeit with large uncertainty. Major methane emission sources in this region are oil/gas and livestock. Our findings corroborate recently published studies based on aircraft and satellite measurements and new bottom-up estimates reporting significantly underestimated methane emissions of oil/gas and/or livestock in this area in EDGAR.

Currently 52 % of the world's population resides in urban areas and as a consequence, approximately 70 % of fossil fuel emissions of CO2 arise from cities. This fact in combination with large uncertainties associated with quantifying urban emissions due to lack of appropriate measurements makes it crucial to obtain new measurements useful to identify and quantify urban emissions. This is required, for example, for the assessment of emission mitigation strategies and their effectiveness. Here we investigate the potential of a satellite mission like Carbon Monitoring Satellite (CarbonSat), proposed to the European Space Agency (ESA) – to retrieve the city emissions globally, taking into account a realistic description of the expected retrieval errors, the spatiotemporal distribution of CO2 fluxes, and atmospheric transport. To achieve this we use (i) a high-resolution modeling framework consisting of the Weather Research Forecasting model with a greenhouse gas module (WRF-GHG), which is used to simulate the atmospheric observations of column averaged CO2 dry air mole fractions (XCO2), and (ii) a Bayesian inversion method to derive anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their errors from the CarbonSat XCO2 observations. We focus our analysis on Berlin in Germany using CarbonSat's cloud-free overpasses for one reference year. The dense (wide swath) CarbonSat simulated observations with high-spatial resolution (approx. 2 km × 2 km) permits one to map the city CO2 emission plume with a peak enhancement of typically 0.8–1.35 ppm relative to the background. By performing a Bayesian inversion, it is shown that the random error (RE) of the retrieved Berlin CO2 emission for a single overpass is typically less than 8 to 10 MtCO2 yr−1 (about 15 to 20 % of the total city emission). The range of systematic errors (SE) of the retrieved fluxes due to various sources of error (measurement, modeling, and inventories) is also quantified. Depending on the assumptions made, the SE is less than about 6 to 10 MtCO2 yr−1 for most cases. We find that in particular systematic modeling-related errors can be quite high during the summer months due to substantial XCO2 variations caused by biogenic CO2 fluxes at and around the target region. When making the extreme worst-case assumption that biospheric XCO2 variations cannot be modeled at all (which is overly pessimistic), the SE of the retrieved emission is found to be larger than 10 MtCO2 yr−1 for about half of the sufficiently cloud-free overpasses, and for some of the overpasses we found that SE may even be on the order of magnitude of the anthropogenic emission. This indicates that biogenic XCO2 variations cannot be neglected but must be considered during forward and/or inverse modeling. Overall, we conclude that CarbonSat is well suited to obtain city-scale CO2 emissions as needed to enhance our current understanding of anthropogenic carbon fluxes and that CarbonSat or CarbonSat-like satellites should be an important component of a future global carbon emission monitoring system.

The goal of the GHG-CCI project (http://www.esa-ghg-cci.org/) of ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) is to generate global atmospheric satellite-derived carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) data sets as needed to improve our understanding of the regional sources and sinks of these important greenhouse gases (GHG). Here we present an overview about the latest data set called Climate Research Data Package No. 3 (CRDP3). We focus on the GHG-CCI project core data products, which are near-surface-sensitive column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 and CH4, denoted XCO2 (in ppm) and XCH4 (in ppb) retrieved from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT (2002-2012) and TANSO-FTS/GOSAT (2009-today) nadir mode radiance observations in the near-infrared/shortwave-infrared spectral region. The GHG-CCI products are primarily individual sensor Level 2 products. However, we also generate merged Level 2 products ("EMMA products"). Here we also present a first GHG-CCI Level 3 product, namely XCO2 and XCH4 in Obs4MIPs format (monthly, 5°×5°).

Global observations of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2), denoted by XCO2 , retrieved from SCIAMACHY on-board ENVISAT can provide important and missing global information on the distribution and magnitude of regional CO2 surface fluxes. This application has challenging precision and accuracy requirements. In a previous publication (Heymann et al., 2012), it has been shown by analysing seven years of SCIAMACHY WFM-DOAS XCO2 (WFMDv2.1) that unaccounted thin cirrus clouds can result in significant errors. In order to enhance the quality of the SCIAMACHY XCO2 data product, we have developed a new version of the retrieval algorithm (WFMDv2.2), which is described in this manuscript. It is based on an improved cloud filtering and correction method using the 1.4 μm strong water vapour absorption and 0.76 μm O2-A bands. The new algorithm has been used to generate a SCIAMACHY XCO2 data set covering the years 2003–2009. The new XCO2 data set has been validated using ground-based observations from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The validation shows a significant improvement of the new product (v2.2) in comparison to the previous product (v2.1). For example, the standard deviation of the difference to TCCON at Darwin, Australia, has been reduced from 4 ppm to 2 ppm. The monthly regional-scale scatter of the data (defined as the mean intra-monthly standard deviation of all quality filtered XCO2 retrievals within a radius of 350 km around various locations) has also been reduced, typically by a factor of about 1.5. Overall, the validation of the new WFMDv2.2 XCO2 data product can be summarised by a single measurement precision of 3.8 ppm, an estimated regional-scale (radius of 500 km) precision of monthly averages of 1.6 ppm and an estimated regional-scale relative accuracy of 0.8 ppm. In addition to the comparison with the limited number of TCCON sites, we also present a comparison with NOAA's global CO2 modelling and assimilation system CarbonTracker. This comparison also shows significant improvements especially over the Southern Hemisphere.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) that cause global warming. With electricity generation through fossil-fuel power plants now being the economic sector with the largest source of CO2, power plant emissions monitoring has become more important than ever in the fight against global warming. In a previous study done by Bovensmann et al. (2010), random and systematic errors of power plant CO2 emissions have been quantified using a single overpass from a proposed CarbonSat instrument. In this study, we quantify errors of power plant annual emission estimates from a hypothetical CarbonSat and constellations of several CarbonSats while taking into account that power plant CO2 emissions are time-dependent. Our focus is on estimating systematic errors arising from the sparse temporal sampling as well as random errors that are primarily dependent on wind speeds. We used hourly emissions data from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) combined with assimilated and re-analyzed meteorological fields from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). CarbonSat orbits were simulated as a sun-synchronous low-earth orbiting satellite (LEO) with an 828-km orbit height, local time ascending node (LTAN) of 13:30 (01:30 p.m. LT) and achieves global coverage after 5 days. We show, that despite the variability of the power plant emissions and the limited satellite overpasses, one CarbonSat has the potential to verify reported US annual CO2 emissions from large power plants (≥5 Mt CO2 yr−1) with a systematic error of less than ~4.9% and a random error of less than ~6.7% for 50% of all the power plants. For 90% of all the power plants, the systematic error was less than ~12.4% and the random error was less than ~13%. We additionally investigated two different satellite configurations using a combination of 5 CarbonSats. One achieves global coverage everyday but only samples the targets at fixed local times. The other configuration samples the targets five times at two-hour intervals approximately every 6th day but only achieves global coverage after 5 days. From the statistical analyses, we found, as expected, that the random errors improve by approximately a factor of two if 5 satellites are used. On the other hand, more satellites do not result in a large reduction of the systematic error. The systematic error is somewhat smaller for the CarbonSat constellation configuration achieving global coverage everyday. Therefore, we recommend the CarbonSat constellation configuration that achieves daily global coverage.

This study presents results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) carbon dioxide (CO₂) analysis system where the atmospheric CO₂ is controlled through the assimilation of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO₂ (XCO₂) from the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). The analysis is compared to a free-run simulation (without assimilation of XCO₂), and they are both evaluated against XCO₂ data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We show that the assimilation of the GOSAT XCO₂ product from the Bremen Optimal Estimation Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (BESD) algorithm during the year 2013 provides XCO₂ fields with an improved mean absolute error of 0.6 parts per million (ppm) and an improved station-to-station bias deviation of 0.7 ppm compared to the free run (1.1 and 1.4 ppm, respectively) and an improved estimated precision of 1 ppm compared to the GOSAT BESD data (3.3 ppm). We also show that the analysis has skill for synoptic situations in the vicinity of frontal systems, where the GOSAT retrievals are sparse due to cloud contamination. We finally computed the 10-day forecast from each analysis at 00:00 UTC, and we demonstrate that the CO₂ forecast shows synoptic skill for the largest-scale weather patterns (of the order of 1000 km) even up to day 5 compared to its own analysis.

Column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and methane have been retrieved from spectra acquired by the TANSO-FTS (Thermal And Near-infrared Sensor for carbon Observations-Fourier Transform Spectrometer) and SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography) instruments on board GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and ENVISAT (ENVIronmental SATellite), respectively, using a range of European retrieval algorithms. These retrievals have been compared with data from ground-based high-resolution Fourier transform spectrometers (FTSs) from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The participating algorithms are the weighting function modified differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) algorithm (WFMD, University of Bremen), the Bremen optimal estimation DOAS algorithm (BESD, University of Bremen), the iterative maximum a posteriori DOAS (IMAP, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Netherlands Institute for Space Research algorithm (SRON)), the proxy and full-physics versions of SRON's RemoTeC algorithm (SRPR and SRFP, respectively) and the proxy and full-physics versions of the University of Leicester's adaptation of the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) algorithm (OCPR and OCFP, respectively). The goal of this algorithm inter-comparison was to identify strengths and weaknesses of the various so-called round- robin data sets generated with the various algorithms so as to determine which of the competing algorithms would proceed to the next round of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI) project, which is the generation of the so-called Climate Research Data Package (CRDP), which is the first version of the Essential Climate Variable (ECV) "greenhouse gases" (GHGs). For XCO₂, all algorithms reach the precision requirements for inverse modelling (< 8 ppm), with only WFMD having a lower precision (4.7 ppm) than the other algorithm products (2.4–2.5 ppm). When looking at the seasonal relative accuracy (SRA, variability of the bias in space and time), none of the algorithms have reached the demanding < 0.5 ppm threshold. For XCH₄, the precision for both SCIAMACHY products (50.2 ppb for IMAP and 76.4 ppb for WFMD) fails to meet the < 34 ppb threshold for inverse modelling, but note that this work focusses on the period after the 2005 SCIAMACHY detector degradation. The GOSAT XCH₄ precision ranges between 18.1 and 14.0 ppb. Looking at the SRA, all GOSAT algorithm products reach the < 10 ppm threshold (values ranging between 5.4 and 6.2 ppb). For SCIAMACHY, IMAP and WFMD have a SRA of 17.2 and 10.5 ppb, respectively.