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6. What innovation paths for AI to become a GPT?

Author

Bresnahan, Timothy

Subjects
DIGITAL transformation, INFORMATION & communication technologies, ARTIFICIAL intelligence
Abstract

Early commercial applications of artificial intelligence technologies (AITs) were narrow but extremely profitable. Comparable uses of those technologies throughout the economy would lead to a growth boom. Firms which emulated the early applications successfully would make tremendous strategic gains. This is a situation familiar from earlier rounds of information and communication technology. However, for AITs to become a general‐purpose technology across many commercial applications sectors will require some new innovations. This paper examines the innovation paths that could lead to that desirable outcome, the ones that have stalled, the ones in the process now, and the ones that might occur in the future. Strikingly, early AIT use, both commercial and with technical customers, occurred where Digital Transformation was not required for it to succeed. The innovation paths all require Digital Transformation as key steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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18. Preface

Author

Arrow, Kenneth J. and Bresnahan, Timothy

Published
2010

19. Technological change in ICT in light of ideas first learned about the machine tool industry.

Author

Bresnahan, Timothy F

Subjects
TECHNOLOGICAL innovations, INFORMATION & communication technologies, MACHINE tool industry, MARKET segmentation, COMMERCIALIZATION, ECONOMIC convergence
Abstract

Rosenberg (1963, J. Econ. Hist. 23(4), 414–443) analyzed innovation in the 19th and early 20th century machine tool (MT) industry and its industrializing customers. This paper re‐applies his analysis to the invention and application of information and communications technologies (ICTs) in the 20th and 21st centuries. Rosenberg's ideas of technological convergence and of collective learning that leads to a pool of knowledge in a competitive upstream industry are emphasized. In some ICT market segments, the primary customer is a technologist; for these segments, Rosenberg's analysis works quite well. The core reason appears to be that there, as Rosenberg said of MTs, the analysis can go forward on a "purely technological level." In the commercially oriented ICT market segments where most value has been created, this assumption fails. Difficulties at the boundary between purely technological innovation and commercial innovations change the analysis considerably. The locus of accumulating knowledge, the path of technological change through the economy, the structure of the industry supplying the general components and the degree of sharing of technical advances across firms and industries, all change in an easily explained way. The idea of the boundary between two complementary bodies of knowledge may be important. The idea that commercial innovation can be unlike technical invention may be important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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20. Abstracts of Papers Presented at the Annual Meeting

Author

Wright, Robert, Hilt, Eric, Holt, Daniel, Yuchtman, Noam, Cantoni, Davide, Go, Sun, Carter, Linda, Dye, Alan, Walsh, Lorena, Nafziger, Steven, Bakker, Gerben, Burhop, Carsten, Phillips, William, Yuru, Wang, Li, Zhang, Ma, Debin, Nunn, Nathan, Wantchekon, Leonard, Whatley, Warren, Petit-Konczyk, Muriel, Parent, Antoine, Hatton, Timothy, Martin, Richard, Treber, Jaret, Thomasson, Melissa, Murray, John, Wallis, Patrick, Mitch, David, Main, Gloria, Ferrie, Joseph, Rolf, Karen, Engerman, Stanley, Camps, Enriqueta, Brown, John, Wright, Gavin, Levenstein, Margaret, Lamoreaux, Naomi, Geiger, Mark, Alston, Julian, Pardey, Philip, Simpson, James, Alston, Lee, Acemoglu, Daron, Mokyr, Joel, Hamilton, Gary, Kao, Cheng-Shu, Masayuki, Tanimoto, Lin, Wen-Kai, Clark, Gregory, Cummins, Neil, Wegge, Simone, Esteves, Rui, Khoudour-Castéras, David, Field, Alexander, Greenstein, Shane, Bresnahan, Timothy, Henderson, Rebecca, Bessen, James, O'Rourke, Kevin, Lehmann, Sibylle, Bogart, Dan, and Ploeckl, Florian

Published
2009

21. Preface

Author

Arrow, Kenneth J. and Bresnahan, Timothy

Published
2009

48. Prediction of Acute Respiratory Disease in Current and Former Smokers With and Without COPD

Author

Bowler, Russell P., Kim, Victor, Williams, André A. A., Santorico, Stephanie A., Make, Barry J., Lynch, David A., Hokanson, John E., Washko, George R., Bercz, Peter, Soler, Xavier, Marchetti, Nathaniel, Criner, Gerard J., Ramsdell, Joe, Han, MeiLan K., Demeo, Dawn, Comellas, Alejandro, Crapo, James D., Wells, Michael J., Hersh, Craig P., MacIntyre, Neil, Martinez, Fernando, Nath, Hrudaya P., Niewoehner, Dennis, Sciurba, Frank, Sharafkhaneh, Amir, Silverman, Edwin K., van Beek, Edwin J. R., Wise, Robert A., Curtis, Jeffrey, Hanania, Nicola, Alapat, Philip, Bandi, Venkata, Guntupalli, Kalpalatha, Guy, Elizabeth, Lunn, William, Mallampalli, Antara, Trinh, Charles, Atik, Mustafa, DeMeo, Dawn, Hersh, Craig, Jacobson, Francine, Barr, Graham R., Thomashow, Byron, Austin, John, MacIntyre, Neil, Jr., Washington, Lacey, McAdams, Page H., Rosiello, Richard, Bresnahan, Timothy, McEvoy, Charlene, Tashjian, Joseph, Wise, Robert, Hansel, Nadia, Brown, Robert, Casaburi, Richard, Porszasz, Janos, Fischer, Hans, Budoff, Matt, Sharafkhaneh, Amir, Niewoehner, Dennis, Rice, Kathryn, Foreman, Marilyn, Westney, Gloria, Berkowitz, Eugene, Bowler, Russell, Friedlander, Adam, Meoni, Eleonora, Criner, Gerard, Marchetti, Nathaniel, Satti, Aditi, Mamary, James A., Steiner, Robert, Dass, Chandra, Bailey, William, Dransfield, Mark, Gerald, Lynn, Nath, Hrudaya, Ramsdell, Joe, Ferguson, Paul, Friedman, Paul, McLennan, Geoffrey, van Beek, Edwin JR, Martinez, Fernando, Han, MeiLan, Thompson, Deborah, Kazerooni, Ella, Wendt, Christine, Allen, Tadashi, Sciurba, Frank, Weissfeld, Joel, Fuhrman, Carl, Bon, Jessica, Anzueto, Antonio, Adams, Sandra, Orozco, Carlos, Restrepo, Santiago C., Mumbower, Amy, Crapo, James, Make, Barry, Regan, Elizabeth, Samet, Jonathan, Willis, Amy, Stinson, Douglas, Beaty, Terri, Klanderman, Barbara, Laird, Nan, Lange, Christoph, Ionita, Iuliana, Santorico, Stephanie, Silverman, Edwin, Lynch, David, Schroeder, Joyce, Newell, John, Jr., Reilly, John, Coxson, Harvey, Judy, Philip, Hoffman, Eric, Jose Estepar, Raul San, Washko, George, Leek, Rebecca, Zach, Jordan, Kluiber, Alex, Rodionova, Anastasia, Mann, Tanya, Crapo, Robert, Jensen, Robert, Farzadegan, Homayoon, Murphy, James, Everett, Douglas, Wilson, Carla, and Hokanson, John

Published
2014
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49. On the misuse of regressions of price on the HHI in merger review.

Author

Miller, Nathan, Berry, Steven, Morton, Fiona Scott, Baker, Jonathan, Bresnahan, Timothy, Gaynor, Martin, Gilbert, Richard, Hay, George, Jin, Ginger, Kobayashi, Bruce, Lafontaine, Francine, Levinsohn, James, Marx, Leslie, Mayo, John, Nevo, Aviv, Pakes, Ariel, Rose, Nancy, Rubinfeld, Daniel, Salop, Steven, and Schwartz, Marius

Subjects
MERGERS & acquisitions, EQUILIBRIUM
Abstract

The article explains why regressions of price on HHI should not be used in merger review. Both price and HHI are equilibrium outcomes determined by demand, supply, and the factors that drive them. Thus, a regression of price on the HHI does not recover a causal effect that could inform the likely competitive effects of a merger. Nonetheless, economic theory is consistent with the legal presumption that a merger is likely to have adverse competitive effects if it occurs in a concentrated market and makes that market more concentrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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