121 results on '"Bradshaw CJ"'
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2. Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis
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Nepogodiev, D., Matthews, J. H., Morley, G. L., Naumann, D. N., Ball, A., Chauhan, P., Bhanderi, S., Mohamed, I., Glasbey, J. C., Wilkin, R. J. W., Drake, T. M., Clements, J., Blencowe, N. S., Herrod, P. J. J., Pata, F., Frasson, M., Blanco-Colino, R., Soares, A. S., Nepogodiev D, Bhangu A., Matthews, Jh, Morley, Gl, Naumann, Dn, Ball, A, Chauhan, P, Bhanderi, S, Mohamed, I, Glasbey, Jc, Wilkin, R, Drake, Tm, Clements, J, Blencowe, Ns, Herrod, P, Pata, F, Frasson, M, Blanco-Colino, R, Soares, As, Bhangu, A, Nepogodiev, D, Jain, S, Amuthalingam, T, Tyler, R, Griffiths, Ea, Pinkney, Td, Gee, O, Morton, Dg, Beggs, A, Beral, D, Bowley, D, Cruickshank, N, Daniels, I, Griffiths, E, Hornby, St, Lund, Jn, Marriott, P, Singh, P, Smart, Nj, Speake, D, Thompson, C, Torkington, J, Torrance, A, Vohra, R, Warren, O, Winter, Dc, Pellino, G, Sgrò, A, Simioni, A, Farina, V, Podda, M, Di Saverio, S, Birindelli, A, Pasquali, S, Itsurg, Surg, Pt, Bolton, W, Bradshaw, Cj, Chean, Cs, Harris, G, Haddow, Jb, Jamieson, Nb, Mccain, S, Mason, J, Milgrom, D, Nana, Gr, Mohamed, Mn, Brien, Jo, Pearce, J, Rabie, M, Sahnan, K, Sarmah, P, Skerritt, C, Ghazanfar, Ma, Sreedharan, L, Kabwama, S, Gray, Rt, Kamande, Iw, Nazarian, S, Dar, Fa, Misky, At, Arunachalam, S, Twum-Barima, Cs, Mohamed, Im, Connor, Kl, Coe, Po, Kosti, A, Elshaer, M, Colvin, Da, Charalambous, Mp, Yeung, K, Merker, L, Morrison, T, Thaventhiran, Aj, Gilbert, Tm, Clements, Jm, Hicks, G, Afshar, S, Mckinley, Nc, Assaf, N, Hanna, T, Macinnes, E, Thavanesan, N, Dubois, As, Palani-Velu, Lk, Tezas, S, Yow, L, Radwan, Rw, Abdelrahman, M, Lee, Ka, Zarka, Za, Mcdowall, Na, Tan, Cy, Venn, Ml, Ashmore, Dl, Whitehorn, Se, Golder, Am, Reddy, A, Delimpalta, C, Kay, Oh, Shah, Sm, Eiben, I, Doyle, C, Tudyka, V, Issa, E, West, H, Brewer, Hk, Farrow, Ez, Taylor, Ns, Smart, Cj, Griffiths, Np, Halkias, C, Vitish-Sharma, P, Knight, Sr, Mowbray, Ng, Olivier, Jb, Lee, Kj, Clement, Kd, Chrastek, D, Panda, N, Connor, Mj, Fahmy, Se, Bryan, Es, Ngu, Ws, Adegbola, So, Vaughan, Em, Stupalkowska, W, Simmonds, L, Malik, A, Hussein, A, Karim, Mj, Singhal, T, Ormiston, R, Kung, V, Rabie, Ma, Park, Jh, Lal, N, Worku, D, D'Auria, M, Ang, A, Orizu, M, Gammeri, E, Clough, E, Choy, Ch, Lawday, S, Hann, Aj, Robinson, D, Wardle, Bg, Mcdonnell, D, Rutherford, Dg, Hickey, Lm, Garg, Ag, Rezvani, S, Bell, Cr, Mahmood, F, Rehman, S, Donaldson, G, Peleki, A, Pearce, L, Sharp, Ol, Singh, S, Thompson, Db, El-Tayar, O, Hollyman, M, Rupasinghe, Sn, Toomey, Db, Murray, Mp, Amtul, N, Mersh, Rj, Newton, Rc, Al-Khyatt, W, Stephens, Gf, Abbas, Sh, Iqbal, Mr, Brown, Ce, Renshaw, S, Hureibi, Ka, Pullabatla-Venkata, Up, Donohoe, No, Myatt, A, Egan, Rj, Rangarajan, K, Trail, M, Mckay, Sc, Engall, N, Jerome, E, Townsend, Dc, Patel, By, Pronin, S, Chandratreya, N, Choong, Jh, Mohamed, Tm, Hudson-Peacock, Nj, Manson, R, Hebbar, K, Mothe, Bs, Weegenaar, Cr, Saad, M, Bowman, Cr, Serventi, F, Fleres, F, Foppa, C, Pata, G, Baronio, G, Pertile, D, Lucchi, A, Sagnotta, A, Maretto, I, Campagnaro, T, Gatti, M, Gjoni, E, Roscio, F, Inama, M, Coccolini, F, Colombo, F, Avanzolini, A, Aresu, S, De-Manzoni-Garberini, A, Merlini, Da, Chessa, A, Tamini, N, Mulas, S, Cillara, N, Coletta, D, Atzeni, J, Erdas, E, Gallo, G, Francone, E, Di Gioia, P, Bianchi, Cl, Ferrara, F, Biancafarina, A, Scabini, S, Marano, L, Miegge, A, Sasia, D, Savino, G, Scatizzi, M, D'Amico, Fe, Arcuri, Ga, Gavagna, L, Salamone, G, Tatulli, F, Goldin, E, Matos, Ml, Caldeira, Ab, Romano, J, Pereira, J, Azevedo, J, Azevedo, Jm, Simoes, J, Silva, A, O'Leary, Dp, Kennedy, Nd, Quinn, Em, Zhang, Ay, Neary, Pm, De-Marchi, Ja, O'Connor, Br, Wijesundera, K, Foley, Nm, Wong, J, Tiedt, La, Bolger, Jc, Connelly, Tm, Ahmed, Os, Vigorita, V, García, V, Arredondo, J, Redondo, E, Sainz, B, Aldrey, I, Landaluce-Olavarria, A, Gómez, Aa, Cordoba, E, Sánchez-Fuentes, Mn, Cerdán-Santacruz, C, Beltran-De-Heredia, J, García, M, Veres, T, García-Novoa, A, Abellán, Am, García-Catalá, L, Ruiz-Marín, M, Menendez, P, Roldán-Ortiz, S, Navas-Cuéllar, Ja, Sabia, D, Gomez-Rosado, Jc, Navidad, Ms, Caula, C, Sanchez, Er, Espin-Basany, E, Fernández-Martínez, D, Bravo-Gutiérrez, Af, Payá-Llorente, C, Dujovne, P, Lima, F, Soria-Aledo, V, Gomez, Cj, Pascual-Miguelañez, I, Muinelo, M, Alvarez, Cm, Vargas-Pierola, Hj, Vallve-Bernal, M, Hidalgo-Rosas, Jm, Arenal-Vera, Jj, Sena-Ruiz, F, Sanchez-Guillen, L, Villarejo-Campos, P, Tallon-Aguilar, L, Garcea, A, Bennett, Jm, Whittaker, L, Gidwani, Al, Byrnes, Ck, Saunders, S, Shiwani, Mh, Ashraf, N, Venkatasubramaniam, Ak, Bevan, Ke, Mcarthur, D, Mustafa, Ak, Griffith, Jp, Blazeby, Jm, Charalabopoulos, A, Campbell, W, Reese, G, Warren, Oj, Peacock, M, Menzies, D, Jenner, D, Eardley, Nj, Yoong, S, Abulafi, M, Avalapati, H, Thompson, R, Nastro, P, Kochupapy, R, Stubbs, Bm, Mcintyre, R, Crozier, J, Patel, Pk, Pento, V, Beasley, Wd, Roxburgh, C, Youssef, H, Alexander, R, Denley, S, Di Franco, F, Quddus, A, Saha, A, Hunter, I, Hannay, J, Velchuru, Vr, Bond-Smith, G, Salama, Y, Bhargava, A, Panagiotopoulos, Sp, Watson, N, Garcea, G, Boddy, Ap, Dunning, Pg, Lloyd, G, Gurjar, Sv, Hill, J, Andrews, B, Singh, A, Ruzvidzo, F, Shingler, G, Mahon, D, Elgaddal, S, Payne, Cj, Shaikh, Ia, Dalmia, S, Nair, Ms, Finch, Jg, Chapple, Ks, Bawa, S, Watfah, J, Carden, Ca, Makhija, R, Rao, M, Sarveswaran, J, Vijay, V, Rekhraj, S, Knight, B, Siddiqui, Mn, Sebastian, Jf, Glen, P, Vakis, S, Ebied, H, Rajaram, R, Gray, J, Mcgrath, D, Faulkner, G, Gopalswamy, S, Varcada, M, Woodward, A, Williams, Gl, Szentpali, K, Ravindran, R, Bronder, C, Thaha, Ma, Rate, A, Shetty, Vd, Rao, V, Sajid, Ms, Clements, B, Patel, Rt, Mason, C, Branagan, G, Maude, K, Kaur, G, Lyons, A, Ainsworth, P, Hagger, R, Zadi, Az, Maslekar, Su, Kinross, J, Irukulla, S, Hawkins, W, Wheatstone, S, Magro, T, Bailey, S, Marshall, G, Mccullough, J, Marangoni, G, Leung, El, Borg, Cm, Gopinath, S, Kirkby-Bott, J, Yalamarthi, S, Mirza, S, Brett, M, Ramcharan, S, Pandey, V, Thava, B, Andreani, Sm, Sahay, Sj, Aravind, B, Downey, M, Nicol, D, Whitehouse, P, Sharma, A, Francis, N, Chitsabesan, P, Stewart, Dj, Norcia, Gg, Cucinotta, E, Cianchi, F, Romario, Uf, Taglietti, L, Capelli, P, Garulli, G, Parisi, A, Nitti, D, Guglielmi, A, Alonzo, A, Scandroglio, Is, Moretto, G, Ansaloni, L, Pietrabissa, A, Foschi, D, Vettoretto, N, Ercolani, G, Coppola, M, Colangelo, E, Morandi, E, Niolu, P, Pala, M, Coletti, M, Pisanu, A, Nicolosi, A, Sammarco, G, Berti, S, Soliani, P, Tonini, V, Stella, M, Ceccarelli, G, De Nisco, C, Castagnoli, G, De Nardi, P, Borghi, F, Agresta, F, Benevento, A, Cantafio, S, Cesari, Mc, Rubbini, M, Chetta, G, De Marchi, F, Nora, Mf, Sousa, Hs, Nascimento, Ca, Casimiro, C, Costa, Sd, Rosa, Mj, Carvalho, N, Correia, J, Gomes, Ap, Hill, Ad, Walsh, Tn, Aremu, Ma, Mulsow, J, El-Masry, S, Gillick, J, Garvin, J, Caldwell, M, Mehigan, B, Peirce, Cb, Cooke, F, Mealy, K, Ruano, A, Ais, G, Fueyo, J, Parajó, Ae, Bernal-Sprekelsen, Jc, Monzón-Abad, Ja, Blanco, F, Arroyo, A, Bazán-Hinojo, Mc, Ramos-Bernado, Mi, Lopez-Ruiz, Ja, Golda, T, Julià, D, Cuadrado, Mm, Gómez-Abril, Sa, Martinez, J, Aguayo, Jl, Millan, M, Alvarez-Gallego, M, Muinelo-Lorenzo, M, Parra, Jm, Muñoz-Muñoz, E, De Chaves-Rodríguez PG, Cánovas-Moreno, G, Rodriguez-Lopez, M, Segura-Sampedro, Jj, García-Granero, A, Redondo-Calvo, Fj, Dyson, S, Thakur, D, Swords, C, Siaw, O, Zelazek, M, Woo, R, Badran, A, Aruparayil, N, Christopoulos, P, Chambers, B, O'Neill, N, Long, Rh, Mccaughey, P, Wong, Ml, Mccain, Rs, Lennox-Warburton, Hc, Moore, C, Manektella, Km, Mcilwaine, S, Rupani, S, Simpson, Dj, Wauchope, J, Ng, M, Christian, L, Crone, A, Sacks, R, Symons, N, Lazzaro, A, Patil, Sd, Roomi, S, Silva, I, Hodgson, Jm, Ly, C, Froud, H, Patel, H, Cay, P, Karwal, Rs, Danquah-Boateng, D, Berry, B, Esmail, Hd, Maripi, H, Bilku, D, Mckelvie, Ma, Miller, K, Maina, A, Velho, R, Hasan, R, Clingan, R, Jah, S, Waite, K, Jones, A, Buckley-Jones, S, Lecky-Thompson, L, Saghir, N, Mansoor, S, Mistry, D, Brown, R, Wong, A, Gurung, S, Wensley, F, Fleming, Ta, Griggs, R, Haines, S, Bedoya, S, Beverstock, A, Johnson, J, Govind, G, Niaz, O, Dyal, A, Tokidis, E, Punj, S, Leusink, A, Rudland, I, Kelly, M, Morgan, R, Al-Musawi, S, Lek, C, Gilbert, A, Gosal, A, Mahoney, R, Parwaiz, I, Mitchard, Mj, Ribeiro, B, Merai, H, Dean, Ea, Khan, S, Baginski, A, Mann, C, Foers, W, Jones, L, Woodward, B, Mcwhirter, Dm, Thomas, At, Gilbert, Tg, Weatherburn, Lw, Pilkington, Jp, Cameron, Fc, Clements, Jd, Mccann, C, Davidson, S, Hackney, L, Clements, Js, Martin, A, Du, Dt, Shakoor, Z, Yen, Sk, Adnan, M, Ranathunga, S, Sana, S, Tay, Yh, Chin, My, Gillespie, M, Brown, Ag, Campbell, U, Chatzikonstantinou, M, Mahendran, B, Flack, T, Chowdhary, M, Lim, Jm, Whiteman, E, Shepherd, Ja, Pedder, A, Siggens, Kl, Lai, Cw, Morrison-Jones, V, Hayat, Z, Nehikhare, I, Macleod, C, Quinn, Hc, Brown, A, Neagle, G, Chok, Sm, Carrano, Fm, Abbassi, Oa, Divekar, Ga, Halmer, S, Adams, Re, Davies, Pl, Wong, Sy, Amarasinghe, R, Tague, Le, Jones, E, Singh, J, Boza, K, Kelly, Sd, Morrison, F, Chan, Wh, Wilson, Ej, Awokoya, Oo, Griffiths, Sn, Kirkham, En, Cotton, Ae, Adimonye, A, Leighton, Pa, Abdelrahman, A, Cartwright, H, Gates, Z, Miguras, M, Khan, K, Louw, C, Grove, T, Badenoch, T, Mckeon, J, Wood, Cs, Leitch, Rp, Sgardelis, P, Perera, Mi, Nagarajan, D, Malam, Y, Theodoropoulou, K, Rajagopal, S, Kaptanis, S, Popova, D, Olagbaiye, O, Tayeh, S, Rigby, S, Harris, Mp, Ren, Kz, Liaw, G, Zhou, S, White, F, Marshall, Cm, Mitchell, Jh, Anderson, Dj, Kanakala, V, Hollingsworth, A, Paramasevon, Kr, Milward, J, Ahmed, S, Fanibi, Bf, Ferguson, N, Dickson, Ea, Shaw, Av, Dixon, F, Morrish, S, Dandy, R, Fooks, P, Sharma, P, Islam, N, Tabain, V, Keegan, R, Ahel, J, Alhammali, T, Graveston, J, Balai, Ej, Rothnie, K, Pankin, Gp, Eiben, Ie, Jackson, Nj, Dhar, M, Nash, D, Dharamavaram, S, Seth, M, Chowdhury, F, Rezacova, M, Seneviratne, N, Turner, Ej, Currow, C, Isherwood, Jd, Hobson, Bm, Lui, Dh, Rodger, V, Ting, N, Photiou, D, Taze, D, Lodhia, S, Earnshaw, L, Kumar, K, Neale, A, Bastianpillai, J, Cipparrone, M, Barrie, A, Nash, Z, Anandan, L, Tailor, K, Vinnicombe, Z, Krivan, S, Kuo, R, Giorga, A, Habib, H, Malik, K, Bogdan, M, Mahon-Daly, Fp, Athersmith, Mj, Strange, Ja, Wheeler, C, Summerfield, L, Khaw, Ra, Ashour, O, Iosif, E, Fadel, M, Gopalakrishnan, K, Orme, N, Williams, S, Rashid, M, Sultana, A, Patel, N, Pearson, R, Yasin, T, Bevan, V, Al-Sarireh, B, Brown, M, Mohd, N, Howie, Ee, Poudevigne, M, Paget, C, Rallage, H, Chui, K, Fawzi, F, Layman, S, Okorocha, E, Jama, Gm, Orawiec, P, Kouli, O, Hassane, A, Kilkenny, J, Devine, Aa, Laurenson, M, Slezak, I, Barker, T, Lau, E, Limbada, M, O'Brien, J, Weaver, J, Hajibandeh, S, Shah, J, Mansour, Mm, Malik, Sn, Davis, S, Trew, F, Bandyopadhyay, Sk, Dart, K, Guru-Naidu, S, Callan, R, Nair, Mk, Alani, M, Sezen, E, Salim, S, Shurlock, J, Siddique, K, Forouzanfar, A, Brews, R, Acharya, A, Jain, A, Tozer, Pj, Warusavitarne, J, Emslie, Km, Collier-Wakefield, O, Sivaloganathan, P, Dobson, C, Elseedawy, M, Mcnally, L, Williams, M, Motiwala, Fh, Choi, S, Asmadi, Aa, Burnside, D, Everden, A, Suriyakumar, S, Sandu, L, Kent, Da, Bowen, J, Long, P, Khair, A, Shah, K, Phelan, L, Pierre, R, Dhari, Aa, Hoff, M, Nickson, S, Setshwaelo, T, Chalk, A, Parkola, Mj, Harlinska, A, Chan, T, Dudek, Jg, Rolph, R, Allen, M, Pollard, H, Gormely, R, Finlayson, H, Ljungqvist, G, Peponis, C, Rahman, M, Dhesi, S, Arshad, F, Faris, Ar, Sooriyamoorthy, T, Springate, El, Barnieh, W, Patel, As, Siddiqui, Za, Chishti, Ia, Ayube-Brown, J, Rabie, Mr, Blake, L, Yardimci, E, Nagendram, S, Neophytou, Gi, Henderson, L, Farhan-Alanie, M, Kong, Cy, Ghazala, R, Evans, J, Hussain, N, Kabir, M, Hraishawi, I, Cox, M, Bailey, Ja, Muhibullah, N, Yanni, F, Stevenson, R, Nair, A, Murphy, C, Mcgucken, O, Pandya, R, Bowerman, H, Lafaurie, G, Van Boxel GI, Shanmugarajah, K, Maragouthakis, D, Hanif, Z, Evans, Jd, Yoganathan, S, Richardson, Td, Cook, V, Clark, Gl, Rigney, B, O'Neill, E, Guliani, J, Chan, D, Harper, F, Sian, T, Boereboom, C, Blackwell, J, Hardy, E, Boyd-Carson, H, Couch, Dg, Barter, Ca, Thoukididou, Sn, Hatt, Jr, Jones, Cs, Dean, S, Rajaretnam, N, Masood, M, Thakral, N, Griffith, D, Doherty, C, Longshaw, A, Peprah, D, Mathew, G, Hook, A, Vance-Daniel, J, Ibrahim, Y, Walters, Kj, Whewell, He, Sherif, Ma, Mckenna, M, O'Sullivan, D, Woodrow, C, Gill, S, Johnstone, A, Gentry, R, Irwin, R, Forgie, A, Welsh, S, Ivey, P, Bullivant, Jk, English, Wj, Osterberg, A, Morowala, A, Al-Faham, Z, Islam, S, Tan, E, Sadek, S, Sihra, N, Shrestha, D, Chong, B, Nadeem, A, Fasuyi, Ja, Patel, Mm, Daureeawoo, R, Okekunle, B, Cheruvu, M, Mazumdar, E, Hussain, A, Patel, C, Mcquaid, M, Banks, A, Robinson, A, Khan, Ms, Riaz, W, Verroiotou, M, Cohen, Ja, Kouroumpas, E, Ghaffari, I, Moradzadeh, J, Kamal, M, Gulamhussein, M, Gaines, E, Ghatorae, S, Clark, S, Savill, A, Hutchinson, B, Chapman, J, Wu, F, Creasy, W, Raymond, M, Grosvenor, S, Odeh, A, Malik, Y, Bansal, H, Grant, C, Raofi, A, Ahmed, B, Mai, D, Souter, J, Hamelmann, Rn, Ikram, S, Durbacz, M, Gilliland, N, Salem, A, Chudek, D, Ladwa, N, Storey, R, Fontaine, C, Toomey, D, Miller, B, Oakey, M, Smoker, H, Chapman, Sj, O'Hagan, Sc, Tahir, W, Wilcox, G, Ahmad, A, Akram, F, Baddams, Ts, Boshier, Pr, Fehervari, M, Easdon, S, Ilozue, T, Adam, Me, Jokhan, S, Foster, A, Nambiar, K, Bohra, P, Janardanan, S, Shanmuganathan, V, Maqboul, F, Ettles, C, Wardle, Sd, Martinou, E, Khasria, A, Bagga, R, Motter, D, Mundkur, N, Pan, Y, Akbari, K, Farrell, Sm, Rahim, A, Gummaraju, A, Mahmoud, A, Akinsola, O, Smallcombe, N, Tarazi, M, Hanley, C, Campbell, Um, Franklin, D, Davidson, Jr, Raza, Ss, Krishnamoorthy, A, Rajjoub, Y, Ali, M, Seddon, Tc, Payne, Re, Das, A, Martin, Lm, Naismith, Kn, Venkata, Up, Manda, Vm, Burns, Km, Huang, J, Samuel, M, Docherty, Ja, Cheah, Wl, Ooi, R, Nyeko-Lacek, M, Marsh, L, Prideaux, A, Li, Ch, Poacher, A, Lee, M, Muzaffar, M, Kara, A, Walsh, E, Sunter, H, Roth, N, Roy, C, Mcmorran, D, Turnbull, A, Layton, Gr, Archer, Je, Yang, P, Douka, E, Amin, V, Borghol, K, Blackford, Od, Bond, S, Baker, B, Mohamed, Wo, Williams, R, Garnham, J, Robb, Hd, Allington, J, Cloney, L, Tamborska, A, Kalia, K, Fung, E, Johnston, Z, Lynch, L, Christides, A, Tan, Hl, Cynthia, G, Tsang, B, Rossi, C, Kaubrys, M, Al-Khafaji, N, Jenkins, M, Peiris, Gb, Gunning, S, Nimako, E, Pandya, D, Hever, P, Amayo, A, Bull, C, Clements, C, Al-Sheikh, M, Savioli, F, Long, M, Horsfield, E, Robertson, C, Ogboru, S, Mcilwrath, Ac, Bell, J, Limb, C, Obeid, N, Rich, Je, Balasubramaniam, A, Mashar, R, Taylor, M, Bruce, Js, Dennison, G, Curtis, Nj, Ezerska, E, Ellis, B, Wiggill, S, Tee, A, Ng, S, Carder, C, Abdelwahed, A, Chandler, Sb, Tinsley, Bj, Finotti, E, Occhioni, G, Cossu, F, Vulcano, I, Viscosi, F, Michelini, M, Compagnoni, B, Sepe, C, Isolani, Sm, Regina, G, Alagna, V, Martorelli, G, Gabbianelli, C, Moroni, P, Zuin, M, Conci, S, Lazzari, G, Costamagna, D, Zurleni, Tz, Altomare, Ma, Desiderio, J, Di Cintio, A, Gemini, A, Trastulli, S, Viviani, E, Tomasoni, M, Montori, G, Harder, G, Argenti, F, Malabarba, S, Checcacci, P, Montanelli, P, Guerra, F, Skalamera, I, Staderini, F, Grandi, S, Nelli, T, Coratti, F, Sorrentino, L, Maffioli, A, Cavallo, D, Bondurri, A, Groppo, G, Curti, R, Solaini, L, Xidas, A, Manias, T, Delogu, D, Vacca, A, Solinas, L, Corbellini, C, Fiore, L, Nigro, A, Santurro, L, Angrisani, M, Sparta, C, Lorettu, A, Mura, Fa, Ruggiu, Gv, Pirari, Pf, Pau, R, Melis, M, Piu, F, Patti, S, Deserra, A, Angelieri, D, Del Basso, C, Rossi, D, Iannone, I, De Padua, C, Giubilo, C, Falaschi, F, Cirillo, B, Gordini, L, Podda, F, Sanna, S, Saba, A, Poillucci, G, Pinna, E, Messina, A, Sena, G, Cardona, R, De Luca, E, Sacco, R, Vescio, G, Ammendola, M, Romano, R, Bianco, A, Bonfante, P, D'Ambra, L, Feleppa, C, Gennai, A, Lizzi, V, Moggia, E, Imperatore, M, Bolzon, S, Belvedere, A, Amaducci, E, Ripoli, Mc, Segalini, E, Cervellera, M, Vaccari, S, Eretta, Co, O'Neill, R, Llewelyn, O, Jones, N, Clerici, F, Ballabio, M, Andolfi, E, Angelini, M, Fontani, A, Miranda, E, Scricciolo, M, Provenza, G, Pellicanò, Ga, Pulighe, F, Argenio, G, Melis, A, Balestra, F, Anania, M, Cruccu, A, Massaiu, C, Murru, Ml, Martino, A, Luzzi, Ap, La Valle, G, Chillitupa, Cz, Bartoli, A, Conti, D, Spaziani, A, Bellochi, R, Listorti, C, 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Gulamhussein M., Gaines E., Ghatorae S., Clark S., Savill A., Hutchinson B., Chapman J., Wu F., Creasy W., Raymond M., Grosvenor S., Odeh A., Malik Y., Bansal H., Grant C., Raofi A., Ahmed B., Mai D., Souter J., Hamelmann R.N., Ikram S., Durbacz M., Gilliland N., Salem A., Chudek D., Ladwa N., Storey R., Fontaine C., Toomey D., Miller B., Oakey M., Smoker H., Chapman S.J., O'Hagan S.C., Tahir W., Wilcox G., Ahmad A., Akram F., Baddams T.S., Boshier P.R., Fehervari M., Easdon S., Ilozue T., Adam M.E., Jokhan S., Foster A., Nambiar K., Bohra P., Janardanan S., Shanmuganathan V., Maqboul F., Ettles C., Wardle S.D., Martinou E., Khasria A., Bagga R., Motter D., Mundkur N., Pan Y., Akbari K., Farrell S.M., Rahim A., Gummaraju A., Mahmoud A., Akinsola O., Smallcombe N., Tarazi M., Hanley C., Campbell U.M., Franklin D., Davidson J.R., Raza S.S., Krishnamoorthy A., Rajjoub Y., Ali M., Seddon T.C., Payne R.E., Das A., Martin L.M., Naismith K.N., Venkata U.P., Manda V.M., Burns K.M., Huang J., 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D'Ambra L., Feleppa C., Gennai A., Lizzi V., Moggia E., Imperatore M., Bolzon S., Belvedere A., Amaducci E., Ripoli M.C., Segalini E., Cervellera M., Vaccari S., Eretta C.O., O'Neill R., Llewelyn O., Jones N., Clerici F., Ballabio M., Andolfi E., Angelini M., Fontani A., Miranda E., Scricciolo M., Provenza G., Pellicano G.A., Pulighe F., Argenio G., Melis A., Balestra F., Anania M., Cruccu A., Massaiu C., Murru M.L., Martino A., Luzzi A.P., La Valle G., Chillitupa C.Z., Bartoli A., Conti D., Spaziani A., Bellochi R., Listorti C., Salandini M.C., Carlucci M., Tenconi S.M., Cannavo M., Marano A., Giuffrida M.C., Cannata G., Pellegrino L., Giraudo G., Baraghini M., Garzi A., Giudicissi R., Zalla T., Romoli L., Vannucchi A., Giani I., Feroci F., Calussi M., Ribaudo M., Fiorot A., Stecca T., Nistri C., Fornasier C., Valiani S.V., Brunelli D.B., Evoli L.E., Giuliani N.G., Contine A.C., Renzi C.R., Feo C.V., Anania G., Carcoforo P., Aisoni F., Licari L., Tutino R., Cocorullo G., Silvestri V., De Marco P., Fontana T., Orlando G., Falco N., Baseggio M., Napetti S., Mella A., Rossi G.M., Chimetto A., Cosci M., Bonomo M., Scialandrone G., Chetta N., Carvalho L.C., Magalhaes J.S., Pereira A.M., Fernandes C., Fareleira A., Goncalves D., Pais M., Pereira A., Resende F.M., Correia D., Cardoso D., Tojal A., Santos S.C., Barbosa L., Louro H.C., Bairos F., Martins F.M., Messias F.M., Ferreira M.S., Borges F.C., Botelho P., Lima M., Valente P.M., Joao A.A., Guimaraes J.M., Rocha R., Nogueira S.T., Kabir U., Wong C., Rahmani L.S., Tan S., Chng S., Jasinski B., Cheng S.A., Mardhiah S., McGlynn K., Hannan E., Burke J., Haveliwala Z., O'Neill M., Boland M., Hayes C., Fox A., Zaborowski A., Mitru R.M., Mc-Dermott A., Coyle D., Stoica I., McMahon S.V., Laughlin D.M., Kannegieser-Bailey M., Murphy R., Muntean A., Shet S., Thomas L., De Freitas S., Quill S., Aljorfi A., Soh B., Law J.J., Hartnett J., Jansen T., Gilgan J., Jung J., Scanlon K., Szucs A., Ahern D.P., Redmond A.E., Edwards S.E., Manoharan P., Brennan S., Abdelgadir A.M., Mckevitt K.L., Zarog M.A., Ahmed G., Bukhari W., Ahad A., Paniagua M., Samartin C., Primo J.C., Garrido L., Lopez M., Rufo E., Trostchansky I., Rodriguez L., Infante H., Acosta A., Cremades P., Cidoncha A., Olmos V., Oliva I., Santamaria C., Cavero A., Calvo H., Suero C.A., Maderuelo V.M., Galvez P., Hernando A., Eguaras I., Recreo A.C., Garcia-Carrero M., Moreda R., De Andres U., Del Pozo E., Calvo M., Moratalla C.N., Ronda R.N., Contreras R.G., De Burgos C.B., Cortes G.V., Martinez C.C., Agudo A.R., Soriano J.T., Ramos X.H., Echazarreta E., Elia M., Hernaez A., Sanchez L., Vallejo-Bernad C., Oliver J.R., Sanchez-Rubio M., Kalviainen H.K., Genzor S., Gonzalez-Nicolas T., Puerta E., Laviano E., Gimenez T., Ferminan A., Muriel-Alvarez P., Sierra-Granon J.E., Escoll-Rufino J., Cuello-Guzman E., Mestres-Petit N., Merichal-Resina M., Pinillos-Somalo A., Gomez-Carmona Z., Vazquez-Fernandez A.P., Trujillo-Diaz J.J., Couso J.R., Fernandez M.D., Riera E., Espinosa J., Carral-Freire M., Martinez-Almeida R., Santarrufina-Martinez S., Sebastian-Tomas J.C., Gonzalvez-Guardiola P., Fernandez E.C., Mozo A.S., Stoyanov T.I., Santamaria P.C., Grimaldo E.G., Fernandez-Candela A., Curtis-Martinez C., Del-Valle-Ruiz S.R., Sanchez-Cifuentes A., Ramirez-Faraco M., Lopez A.F., Leon C., Kumar S., Fornell-Ariza M., Ayllon-Gamez S., Pena-Barturen C., Ojea-Ruiz-Yherla L., Saavedra-Chacon M., Perez-Calvo J., Gomez-Facundo H., Riba-Combatti L., Manas O.C., De-Soto-Cardenal B., De-La-Herranz-Guerrero P., Dominguez-Sanchez C., Gamero-Huaman J.C., Suarez-Cabrera A., Ramirez-Redondo A.A., Lara-Fernandez Y., Bascuas-Rodrigo B., Lopez-Duran B.L., Pigem A., Gil J., Salvador H., Planellas P., Farres R., Caballero A., Arnau M., Tapiolas I., Ridaura N., Roncero L.S., Collado-Roura F., Fijo L.M., Cormenzana O.B., Vinas N.L., Grifell M.S., Prats M.A., Torrado A.A., Sanz-Navarro S., Contreras-Saiz E., Solar-Garcia L., Moreno-Gijon M., Suarez-Sanchez A., Diaz-Vico T., Rodicio-Miravalles J.L., Garcia-Gutierrez C., Pila U., Melone S., Martin-Prieto L., Rojo J.A., Gonzalez M., Zorrilla L., Garcia-Marin J.A., Baeza-Murcia M., Pellicer-Franco E., Jimenez-Ballester M.A., Asensio-Gomez L., Gortazar-De-Las-Casas S., Guevara-Martinez J., Ramirez L., Verea S., Anguita F., Navarro G., Criado ADC., Lara M.C., Martinez E.T., Sanchez-Martinez A., Hernandez-Gimenez L., Galofre-Recasens M., Ferrer-Vilela I., Perez-Sanchez L.E., Esteves M.B., Menendez-Moreno A., Baz-Figueroa C., Rosat A., Hontoria M.S., Garcia N.A., Gracia-Roman R., Pascua-Sole M., Pino-Perez O., Garcia-Perez J.M., Pineno-Flores C., Ambrona-Zafra D., Sancho-Muriel J., Alvarez E., Jimenez-Rosellon R., Daga O., Alberca-Paramo A., Sanchez-Garcia S., Garcia-Santos E., Pareja-Ciuro F., Olivares-Oliver C., Navarro-Morales L., Tamayo-Lopez M.J., Tinoco-Gonzalez J., Garcia-Rivera C.O., Agua I.A., Moreno-Suero F., Pereira-Mosquera E., Zerpa C., Llacer E., Diaz A., Caro A., Feliu F., Franco M., Escuder J., Abellan M., Padilla E., Mambrilla-Herrero S., Plua-Muniz K.T., Bailon-Cuadrado M., Tejero-Pintor F.J., Choolani-Bhojwani E., Vila-Zarate C., Delgado-Plasencia L.J., Ponchietti L., Cousins L., Busuttil A., Baird C., Drye N., Brown O.D., Mansour S., Anderson O., Mahapatra R., Clements J.A., D'Souza N., Littlehales D.J., Tang A.M., Byrne B.E., Cunha P., Ogbuokiri C., Eiben P., Gravante G., Kho H., Dobbs S., Doulias T., Ng J., Wilson M., Venugopal R., Wolff J., Akhtar K., Walji H.D., Tognarelli J.M., Knight K.A., Ansari A., Hussaini S.A., Wright E., Brewer H., Rinkoff S., Harries R.L., Fairfield C.J., Abbott T., Jackson A., Wright H.L., Walters U., Carney K., Logan P.C., Mughal Z., Strachan E., Chasty B., Ma J., Mazzeo C., Badii B., Armellini A., Grassia M., Perin A., Ruzzenente A., Magnoli M., Depalma N., Longheu A., Papandrea M., Dova L., De Prizio M., Gusai G.P., Di Zitti L., Geretto P., Azabdaftari A., Chianese G., Elbetti C., Ruffolo C., Giaccari S., Devezas V., Ferreira J.S., Peixoto R., Alshafei A., Simo V., Jose H.S., Ugarte-Sierra B., Salva A.B., Gomez N., Marinello F., Medina-Arana V., Vega L., Ballester M.M., Espina B., Prieto-Nieto M.I., Rodriguez E.C., Padilla-Valverde D., and Duran-Munoz-Cruzado V.M.
- Subjects
Adult ,humanos ,Decision Making ,Risk Assessment ,NO ,apendicectomía ,apendicitis ,evaluación de riesgos ,Appendectomy ,Humans ,hospital ,General ,collaborative ,LS7_4 ,right iliac fossa ,appendicitis ,emergency service ,Original Articles ,adulto ,Appendicitis ,adult ,appendectomy ,humans ,risk assessment ,decision making ,Lower GI ,Original Article ,appendicitis, prediction models, right iliac fossa pain ,Emergency Service, Hospital ,toma de decisión - Abstract
Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P, Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making were identified by identifying UK adults at low risk of appendicitis. An online calculator is available (http://appy-risk.org). WCC, white cell count; CRP, C‐reactive protein; AIRS, Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score; AAS, Adult Appendicitis Score. Important differences between men and women
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- 2019
3. Appendicitis risk prediction models in children presenting with right iliac fossa pain (RIFT study): a prospective, multicentre validation study
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Nepogodiev, Dmitri, primary, Wilkin, Richard JW, additional, Bradshaw, Catherine J, additional, Skerritt, Clare, additional, Ball, Alasdair, additional, Moni-Nwinia, Waaka, additional, Blanco-Colino, Ruth, additional, Chauhan, Priyesh, additional, Drake, Thomas M, additional, Frasson, Matteo, additional, Gee, Oliver, additional, Glasbey, James C, additional, Matthews, Jacob H, additional, Morley, Gabriella L, additional, Naumann, David N, additional, Pata, Francesco, additional, Soares, Antonio S, additional, Bhangu, Aneel, additional, Abbas, SH, additional, Abdelgadir, AM, additional, Abdelrahman, A, additional, Abdelrahman, M, additional, Abdelwahed, A, additional, Abou El Ella, Y, additional, Abulafi, M, additional, Acharya, A, additional, Adam, ME, additional, Adams, RE, additional, Adegbola, SO, additional, Adimonye, A, additional, Adnan, M, additional, Afshar, S, additional, Ahad, A, additional, Ahel, J, additional, Ahern, DP, additional, Ahmad Asmadi, A, additional, Ahmed, B, additional, Ahmed, G, additional, Ahmed, OS, additional, Ahmed, S, additional, Akbari, K, additional, Akinsola, O, additional, Al-Khyatt, W, additional, Al-Sarireh, B, additional, Al-Sheikh, M, additional, Alani, M, additional, Alexander, R, additional, Alhammali, T, additional, Ali, M, additional, Aljorfi, A, additional, Allen, M, additional, Allington, J, additional, Alshafei, A, additional, Amarasinghe, R, additional, Amayo, A, additional, Amin, V, additional, Amuthalingam, Thuva, additional, Anandan, L, additional, Anderson, O, additional, Andreani, SM, additional, Andrews, B, additional, Ang, A, additional, Aravind, B, additional, Archer, JE, additional, Aremu, MA, additional, Arunachalam, S, additional, Aruparayil, N, additional, Ashmore, DL, additional, Ashour, O, additional, Ashraf, N, additional, Assaf, N, additional, Avalapati, H, additional, Awokoya, OO, additional, Ayube-Brown, J, additional, Badenoch, T, additional, Bagga, R, additional, Baginski, A, additional, Bailey, S, additional, Bailey, STR, additional, Baird, C, additional, Baker, B, additional, Balai, EJ, additional, Balasubramaniam, A, additional, Bandyopadhyay, SK, additional, Banks, A, additional, Bansal, H, additional, Barnieh, W, additional, Barrie, A, additional, Barter, CA, additional, Bastianpillai, J, additional, Beasley, WD, additional, Bell, CR, additional, Bell, J, additional, Beral, D, additional, Berry, BJM, additional, Bevan, KE, additional, Bevan, V, additional, Bhanderi, Shiv, additional, Bhargava, A, additional, Bilku, D, additional, Birindelli, A, additional, Blackford, OD, additional, Blackwell, JEM, additional, Blake, L, additional, Blencowe, Natalie S, additional, Boam, TD, additional, Boereboom, C, additional, Bogdan, M, additional, Bohra, P, additional, Bolger, JC, additional, Bolton, W, additional, Bond, S, additional, Borg, CM, additional, Borghol, K, additional, Boshier, PR, additional, Bouhadiba, N, additional, Bowen, J, additional, Bowerman, H, additional, Bowman, CR, additional, Boyd-Carson, H, additional, Bradshaw, CJ, additional, Branagan, G, additional, Brennan, P, additional, Brett, M, additional, Brewer, HK, additional, Brewer, H, additional, Bronder, C, additional, Brown, A, additional, Brown, AG, additional, Brown, CE, additional, Brown, M, additional, Brown, R, additional, Buckley-Jones, S, additional, Budzanowski, A, additional, Bukhari, W, additional, Bull, C, additional, Bullivant, JK, additional, Burns, KM, additional, Burnside, D, additional, Busuttil, A, additional, Byrne, BE, additional, Byrnes, CK, additional, Caldwell, M, additional, Callan, R, additional, Cameron, FC, additional, Campbell, U, additional, Campbell, UM, additional, Campbell, W, additional, Carden, CA, additional, Carder, CFW, additional, Carney, K, additional, Cartwright, H, additional, Cay, P, additional, Chalk, A, additional, Chambers, B, additional, Champsi, A, additional, Chan, D, additional, Chan, TCW, additional, Chandler, SB, additional, Chapman, J, additional, Charalabopoulos, A, additional, Chasty, B, additional, Chatzikonstantinou, M, additional, Cheah, WL, additional, Chean, CS, additional, Cheng, S, additional, Cheng, SA, additional, Cheruvu, M, additional, Chin, MY, additional, Chishti, IA, additional, Choi, S, additional, Chok, SM, additional, Chong, B, additional, Choong, JH, additional, Chowdhary, M, additional, Chowdhury, F, additional, Choy, CH, additional, Christian, L, additional, Christopoulos, P, additional, Chui, K, additional, Cipparrone, M, additional, Clark, GL, additional, Clarke, SA, additional, Cleeve, SJ, additional, Clement, KD, additional, Clements, B, additional, Clements, C, additional, Clements, JD, additional, Clements, JM, additional, Clements, JS, additional, Clements, JA, additional, Clingan, R, additional, Cloney, L, additional, Clough, ECS, additional, Coe, PO, additional, Collier-Wakefield, O, additional, Colliver, DW, additional, Colvin, DA, additional, Connelly, TM, additional, Connor, MJ, additional, Cook, V, additional, Cooke, F, additional, Cooper, F, additional, Cotton, AE, additional, Couch, DG, additional, Cousins, L, additional, Coyle, D, additional, Creasy, W, additional, Cresner, RL, additional, Crone, A, additional, Cross, K, additional, Crozier, J, additional, Cunha, P, additional, Curtis, NJ, additional, D'Souza, N, additional, Dagash, H, additional, Dalmia, S, additional, Daniels, I, additional, Danquah-Boateng, D, additional, Dar, FA, additional, Dart, K, additional, Das, A, additional, Daureeawoo, R, additional, Davidson, S, additional, Davidson, JR, additional, Davies, PL, additional, Davis, S, additional, Daya Shetty, V, additional, De-Manzoni-Garberini, A, additional, De-Marchi, JA, additional, Dean, EA, additional, Dean, S, additional, Delimpalta, C, additional, Denley, S, additional, Dennison, G, additional, Devine, AA, additional, Dharamavaram, S, additional, Dhari, AA, additional, Di Franco, F, additional, Di Saverio, S, additional, Dobson, C, 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additional, Farrow, EZ, additional, Fasuyi, JA, additional, Faulkner, G, additional, Fawkner-Corbett, D, additional, Fawzi, F, additional, Fehervari, M, additional, Ferguson, N, additional, Finch, JG, additional, Finlayson, H, additional, Flack, T, additional, Foers, W, additional, Foley, NM, additional, Ford, K, additional, Forgie, A, additional, Foster, A, additional, Foster, JD, additional, Fox, AMW, additional, Francis, N, additional, Franklin, D, additional, Froud, H, additional, Fuller, HL, additional, Gaines, E, additional, Galea, J, additional, Gammeri, E, additional, Garnham, J, additional, Garvin, J, additional, Gates, Z, additional, Gentry, R, additional, Ghaffari, I, additional, Ghatorae, S, additional, Gidwani, AL, additional, Gilbert, TG, additional, Gilbert, TM, additional, Gill, S, additional, Gillespie, M, additional, Gillick, J, additional, Giorga, A, additional, Gopalakrishnan, K, additional, Gopalswamy, S, additional, Gopinath, S, additional, Gormely, R, additional, Govind, G, additional, Grant, C, additional, Graveston, J, additional, Gray, J, additional, Gray, RT, additional, Griffith, D, additional, Griffith, JP, additional, Griffiths, Ewen A, additional, Griffiths, SN, additional, Griggs, EJ, additional, Grosvenor, S, additional, Grove, T, additional, Gulamhussein, M, additional, Guliani, J, additional, Gummaraju, A, additional, Gunning, S, additional, Gurjar, SV, additional, Guru-Naidu, S, additional, Gurung, S, additional, Habib, H, additional, Hackney, L, additional, Haddow, James B, additional, Hajibandeh, S, additional, Halkias, C, additional, Hall, NJ, additional, Hamelmann, RN, additional, Haneef, M, additional, Haneef, MS, additional, Hanif, Z, additional, Hanley, C, additional, Hann, AJ, additional, Hanna, T, additional, Hardy, E, additional, Harlinska, A, additional, Harper, F, additional, Harries, RL, additional, Harris, A, additional, Harris, Grant, additional, Harris, MP, additional, Hasan, R, additional, Hassane, A, additional, Hatt, JR, additional, Haveliwala, Z, additional, Hawkins, W, additional, Hayat, Z, additional, Hayes, C, additional, Hebbar, KRM, additional, Henderson, L, additional, Henderson, LT, additional, Herrod, PJJ, additional, Hever, P, additional, Hickey, LM, additional, Hicks, G, additional, Hodgson, JM, additional, Hoff, M, additional, Hollingsworth, A, additional, Hook, A, additional, Hornby, ST, additional, Horsfield, E, additional, Howie, EE, additional, Huang, L, additional, Hudson-Peacock, NJ, additional, Hughes, DL, additional, Hureibi, KA, additional, Hussain, A, additional, Hussain, N, additional, Hussaini, SA, additional, Hussein, A, additional, Hutchinson, B, additional, Ibrahim, YMS, additional, Ikram, S, additional, Ilozue, T, additional, Iosif, E, additional, Iqbal, MR, additional, Irukulla, S, additional, Irwin, R, additional, Islam, N, additional, Ivey, P, additional, Jackson, CR, additional, Jackson, A, additional, Jah, SMH, additional, Jain, A, additional, Jain, S, additional, Jain, Sarus, additional, Jama, GM, additional, Jamieson, NB, additional, Janardanan, S, additional, Jasinski, B, additional, Jenner, D, additional, Jerome, E, additional, Johnson, B, additional, Johnstone, A, additional, Jokhan, S, additional, Jones, A, additional, Jones, CE, additional, Jones, CS, additional, Jones, E, additional, Jones, L, additional, Kabir, U, additional, Kabwama, S, additional, Kamal, M, additional, Kamande, IW, additional, Kanakala, V, additional, Kannegieser-Bailey, M, additional, Kaptanis, S, additional, Karim, MJ, additional, Karwal, RS, additional, Kaur, G, additional, Keegan, R, additional, Kelay, A, additional, Kennedy, ND, additional, Kent, DA, additional, Khair, A, additional, Khan, K, additional, Khan, S, additional, Khasria, A, additional, Kho, H, additional, Kilkenny, J, additional, King, R, additional, Kinross, J, additional, Kirkham, EN, additional, Knight, B, additional, Kochupapy, R, additional, Koh, C, additional, Kouli, O, additional, Krishnamoorthy, A, additional, Krivan, S, additional, Kumar, K, additional, Kumar, S, additional, Kung, VWS, additional, Kuo, R, additional, Lafaurie, G, additional, Lai, CW, additional, Lal, N, additional, Lawday, S, additional, Layman, S, additional, Layton, GR, additional, Lazzaro, A, additional, Lecky-Thompson, L, additional, Lee, KA, additional, Lee, KJ, additional, Lee, M, additional, Lee, SL, additional, Leighton, PA, additional, Leitch, RP, additional, Lennox-Warburton, HC, additional, Leung, EL, additional, Li, CH, additional, Lim, JM, additional, Limb, C, additional, Ljungqvist, G, additional, Lloyd, G, additional, Lodhia, S, additional, Logan, PC, additional, Long, M, additional, Long, P, additional, Long, RH, additional, Longshaw, A, additional, Louw, C, additional, Lund, JN, additional, Ly, C, additional, Lynch Wong, MJ, additional, Ma, JKY, additional, Macdonald, A, additional, Macinnes, EGE, additional, Magro, T, additional, Mahapatra, R, additional, Mahendran, B, additional, Mahmood, F, additional, Mahmoud, A, additional, Mahon, D, additional, Mai, D, additional, Maina, A, additional, Major, CP, additional, Makhija, R, additional, Malam, Y, additional, Malik, A, additional, Malik, K, additional, Malik, SN, additional, Manda, VM, additional, Manektella, KM, additional, Mann, C, additional, Manoharan, P, additional, Manson, R, additional, Mansoor, S, additional, Mansour, MM, additional, Mansour, S, additional, Maqboul, F, additional, Maragouthakis, D, additional, Marangoni, G, additional, Mardhiah, S, additional, Maripi, H, additional, Marriott, P, additional, Marsh, L, additional, Marshall, G, additional, Martin, A, additional, Martin, LM, additional, Martinou, E, additional, Mashar, R, additional, Mason, John, additional, Masood, M, additional, Mathew, G, additional, Maude, K, additional, Mazumdar, E, additional, Mc-Dermott, A, additional, Mcarthur, D, additional, Mccain, RS, additional, McCain, S, additional, Mccann, C, additional, Mccaughey, P, additional, Mccluney, SJ, additional, Mccullough, J, additional, Mcdonnell, D, additional, Mcdowall, NA, additional, McEntee, JE, additional, McGlynn, K, additional, Mcgrath, D, additional, Mcgucken, O, additional, Mcilwaine, S, additional, Mcilwrath, AC, additional, Mckay, SC, additional, McKelvie, MA, additional, Mckenna, M, additional, Mckeon, J, additional, Mckevitt, KL, additional, Mckinley, NC, additional, McLaughlin, D, additional, McMahon, SV, additional, Mcmorran, D, additional, McNally, L, additional, Mcquaid, M, additional, Mcwhirter, DM, additional, Mealy, K, additional, Mears, A, additional, Menzies, D, additional, Merai, H, additional, Mersh, RJ, additional, Miguras, M, additional, Milgrom, D, additional, Miller, K, additional, Milward, J, additional, Mirza, S, additional, Misky, AT, additional, Mistry, D, additional, Mitchard, MJ, additional, Mitru, RM, additional, Mohamed, IM, additional, Mohamed, Imran, additional, Mohamed, TM, additional, Mohamed, WO, additional, Mohd, N, additional, Moore, C, additional, Moradzadeh, J, additional, Morrison, TEM, additional, Morrison-Jones, V, additional, Morton, Dion G, additional, Mothe, BS, additional, Motiwala, Fh, additional, Motter, D, additional, Mowbray, NG, additional, Mughal, Z, additional, Mulsow, J, additional, Mundkur, N, additional, Muntean, A, additional, Murphy, C, additional, Murphy, R, additional, Murray, MP, additional, Muzaffar, M, additional, Myatt, A, additional, Nadeem, A, additional, Nagarajan, D, additional, Nagendram, S, additional, Nair, A, additional, Nair, MK, additional, Nair, MS, additional, Naismith, KN, additional, Nambiar, K, additional, Nana, GR, additional, Nash, Z, additional, Nastro, P, additional, Nazarian, S, additional, Neagle, G, additional, Neale, A, additional, Neary, PM, additional, Newton, RC, additional, Ng, M, additional, Ng, S, additional, Niaz, O, additional, Nickson, S, additional, Nicol, D, additional, Nimako, E, additional, Noor Mohamed, MS, additional, Nyeko-Lacek, M, additional, O'Connor, BR, additional, O'Neill, E, additional, O'Neill, N, additional, O'Sullivan, D, additional, O'Brien, J, additional, Oakey, M, additional, Obeid, N, additional, Odeh, A, additional, Ogboru, S, additional, Ogbuokiri, C, additional, Okekunle, B, additional, Okorocha, E, additional, Olagbaiye, O, additional, Olivier, JB, additional, Ooi, R, additional, Orawiec, P, additional, Orizu, M, additional, Orme, N, additional, Ormiston, R, additional, Paget, C, additional, Pal, A, additional, Palani-Velu, LK, additional, Pan, Y, additional, Panda, N, additional, Pandey, V, additional, Pandya, R, additional, Pandya, D, additional, Paramasevon, KR, additional, Pardy, C, additional, Parkola, MJ, additional, Pasquali, Sandro, additional, Patel, AS, additional, Patel, BY, additional, Patel, C, additional, Patel, H, additional, Patel, N, additional, Patel, RT, additional, Patel, S, additional, Patel, Y, additional, Patel, MM, additional, Patil, SD, additional, Payne, CJ, additional, Payne, RE, additional, Pearce, JCH, additional, Pearce, L, additional, Pedder, A, additional, Peirce, CB, additional, Peiris, GB, additional, Peleki, A, additional, Pellino, Gianluca, additional, Pento, V, additional, Peprah, D, additional, Perera, HS, additional, Perera, MI, additional, Phelan, L, additional, Photiou, D, additional, Pierre, R, additional, Pilkington, JP, additional, Pinkney, Thomas D, additional, Pisavadia, B, additional, Poacher, A, additional, Podda, M, additional, Pollard, H, additional, Popova, D, additional, Poudevigne, M, additional, Prideaux, A, additional, Pullabatla Venkata, UP, additional, Quddus, A, additional, Quill, S, additional, Rabie, M, additional, Rabie, MR, additional, Radwan, RW, additional, Rae, JF, additional, Rahim, A, additional, Rahmani, LS, additional, Rajagopal, S, additional, Rajaram, R, additional, Rajaretnam, N, additional, Rajjoub, Y, additional, Rallage, H, additional, Ramcharan, S, additional, Ranathunga, S, additional, Rao, M, additional, Rao, VSR, additional, Raofi, A, additional, Rashid, M, additional, Rate, A, additional, Ravindran, R, additional, Raymond, M, additional, Raza, SS, additional, Reddy, A, additional, Redman, EP, additional, Redmond, AE, additional, Rekhraj, S, additional, Renshaw, S, additional, Rex, D, additional, Rezacova, M, additional, Rezvani, S, additional, Ribeiro, B, additional, Rich, JE, additional, Richardson, TD, additional, Rigby, S, additional, Rigney, B, additional, Rinkoff, S, additional, Robb, HD, additional, Robertson, C, additional, Robinson, D, additional, Robinson, A, additional, Rodger, V, additional, Rolph, R, additional, Roomi, S, additional, Roth, NPG, additional, Rothnie, K, additional, Roy, C, additional, Rupani, S, additional, Rutherford, DG, additional, Sacks, R, additional, Saghir, N, additional, Saha, A, additional, Sahay, SJ, additional, Sahnan, K, additional, Salama, Y, additional, Salim, S, additional, Samuel, M, additional, Sana, S, additional, Sandu, L, additional, Sarmah, P, additional, Sarveswaran, J, additional, Saunders, SMF, additional, Savill, A, additional, Savioli, F, additional, Schuster Bruce, JR, additional, Sebastian, JF, additional, Seddon, TC, additional, Seneviratne, N, additional, Seth, M, additional, Setshwaelo, T, additional, Sezen, E, additional, Sgardelis, P, additional, Sgrò, A, additional, Shah, C, additional, Shah, J, additional, Shah, K, additional, Shah, SM, additional, Shakoor, Z, additional, Shalaby, MS, additional, Shanmuganathan, V, additional, Shanmugarajah, K, additional, Sharma, A, additional, Sharma, P, additional, Sharp, OL, additional, Shepherd, JA, additional, Sherif, MA, additional, Shet, S, additional, Shingler, G, additional, Shiwani, MH, additional, Shreshta, D, additional, Sian, T, additional, Siddiqui, MN, additional, Siddiqui, ZA, additional, Siggens, KL, additional, Sihra, N, additional, Silva, I, additional, Simioni, A, additional, Simmonds, LFC, additional, Simpson, DJ, 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additional, Yardimci, E, additional, Yasin, T, additional, Yen, SK, additional, Yoganathan, S, additional, Yoong, S, additional, Youssef, H, additional, Yow, LPS, additional, Zaborowski, A, additional, Zadi, AZ, additional, Zarka, ZA, additional, Zarog, MA, additional, and Zhang, AY, additional
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- 2020
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4. Intussusception
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Bradshaw, CJ and Johnson, PRV
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Surgery ,digestive system diseases - Abstract
Intussusception is the most common cause of intestinal obstruction in infancy and early childhood. It occurs when one segment of bowel (the intussusceptum) invaginates into an adjacent distal segment of bowel (the intussuscepien). The classic presentation is with intermittent abdominal pain, vomiting and redcurrant jelly-like stool. Diagnosis can be accurately confirmed with an ultrasound scan. Initial management is with fluid resuscitation and antibiotics. Following adequate resuscitation, treatment is usually with a non-operative air enema reduction under fluoroscopic guidance. If this fails to completely reduce the intussusception, the air enema may be repeated in patients that are clinically stable. The main risks associated with an air enema are bowel perforation, failed reduction and recurrence. Surgical intervention is indicated in patients presenting with perforation, those that are clinically unstable or where multiple air enemas have failed to reduce the intussusception. Surgery can be performed open or laparoscopic and involves attempted manual reduction of the intussusception and may require bowel resection and anastomosis.
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- 2019
5. Cardiovascular effects of dexmedotomidine for ITU sedation: UK results of a multi-centre study (St George's, University College, St Thomas's and Bristol Royal Infirmary Hospitals)
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Bradshaw, CJ, primary, Venn, RM, additional, Spencer, R, additional, Brealey, D, additional, Caudwell, E, additional, Singer, M, additional, Treacher, D, additional, Willatts, SM, additional, and Grounds, RM, additional
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- 1999
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6. Spatially explicit analyses of environmental and health data to determine past, emerging and future threats to child health.
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Le Souëf PN, Saraswati CM, Judge M, and Bradshaw CJ
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- Australia, Child, Child, Preschool, Humans, Infant, Child Health, Climate Change
- Abstract
Background: Dire forecasts predict that an increasingly hostile environment globally will increase the threats to human health. Infants and young children are especially at risk because children are particularly vulnerable to climate-related stressors. The childhood diseases most affected, the breadth and magnitude of future health problems and the time frame over which these problems will manifest remain largely unknown., Objectives: To review the possibility that spacially explicit analyses can be used to determine how climate change has affected children's health to date and whether these analyses can be used for future projections., Methods: As an example of whether these objectives can be achieved, all available Australian environmental and health databases were reviewed., Results: Environmental and health data in Australia have been collected for up to 30 years for the same spatial areas at 'Statistical Area level 1' (SA1) scale. SA1s are defined as having a population of between 200 and 800 people and collectively they cover the whole of Australia without gaps or overlap. Although the SA1 environmental and health data have been collected separately, they can be merged to allow detailed statistical analyses that can determine how climate change has affected the health of children., Conclusions: The availability of environmental and health datasets that share the same precise spatial coordinates provides a pathway whereby past and emerging effects on child health can be measured and predicted into the future. Given that the future health and well-being of children is one of society's greatest concerns, this information is urgently needed., (© 2021 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).)
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- 2021
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7. Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna.
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Bradshaw CJ, Johnson CN, Llewelyn J, Weisbecker V, Strona G, and Saltré F
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- Animals, Australia, Climate Change history, Demography, Fossils, History, Ancient, Humans, Models, Theoretical, New Guinea, Paleontology history, Vertebrates, Birds, Extinction, Biological, Mammals
- Abstract
The causes of Sahul's megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success., Competing Interests: CB, CJ, JL, VW, GS, FS No competing interests declared, (© 2021, Bradshaw et al.)
- Published
- 2021
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8. Combining agent-based, trait-based and demographic approaches to model coral-community dynamics.
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Carturan BS, Pither J, Maréchal JP, Bradshaw CJ, and Parrott L
- Subjects
- Animals, Anthozoa, Biodiversity, Caribbean Region, Coral Reefs, Models, Theoretical, Population Dynamics
- Abstract
The complexity of coral-reef ecosystems makes it challenging to predict their dynamics and resilience under future disturbance regimes. Models for coral-reef dynamics do not adequately account for the high functional diversity exhibited by corals. Models that are ecologically and mechanistically detailed are therefore required to simulate the ecological processes driving coral reef dynamics. Here, we describe a novel model that includes processes at different spatial scales, and the contribution of species' functional diversity to benthic-community dynamics. We calibrated and validated the model to reproduce observed dynamics using empirical data from Caribbean reefs. The model exhibits realistic community dynamics, and individual population dynamics are ecologically plausible. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of larvae produced locally, and interaction-induced reductions in growth rate are the parameters with the largest influence on community dynamics. The model provides a platform for virtual experiments to explore diversity-functioning relationships in coral reefs., Competing Interests: BC, JP, JM, CB, LP No competing interests declared, (© 2020, Carturan et al.)
- Published
- 2020
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9. Use of 8-cm 22G-long peripheral cannulas in pediatric patients.
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Pacilli M, Bradshaw CJ, and Clarke SA
- Subjects
- Administration, Intravenous, Age Factors, Catheterization, Peripheral adverse effects, Child, Child, Preschool, Device Removal, Equipment Design, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, Perioperative Care adverse effects, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Catheterization, Peripheral instrumentation, Perioperative Care instrumentation, Vascular Access Devices
- Abstract
Introduction: Medium-term intravenous access in children is normally achieved by means of repeated multiple peripheral intravenous cannula insertions or peripherally inserted central catheters. Long peripheral cannulas might offer an alternative to these devices in children. Our aim was to clarify whether long peripheral cannulas provide reliable medium-term intravenous access avoiding the need for multiple peripheral intravenous cannulations or peripherally inserted central catheter insertion in children undergoing surgery., Methods: Following ethical approval, we prospectively collected data in children requiring medium-term intravenous access. The 22G-8-cm-long peripheral cannulas were inserted with a Seldinger technique in a peripheral vein. Position was checked by flushing and aspirating the catheter. Results are reported as mean ± standard deviation., Results: A total of 18 children were included. Indications for medium-term intravenous therapy included perforated appendicitis (n = 14), infected central venous port (n = 2), fungal infection (n = 1) and septic arthritis (n = 1). In all, 15 (83%) patients underwent the procedure under general anaesthetic. The procedure failed in an 8-year-old patient. Insertion time was 8 ± 3.7 min. Age at insertion was 6.3 ± 4.9 years. Duration of intravenous therapy was 6.4 ± 5.1 days. About 13 (76%) patients completed the treatment with no complications. Three (17%) lines occluded by day 3 needed removal; one (7%) line needed removal on day 3 because of redness/pain noted around the insertion site., Conclusion: Long peripheral cannulas represent a valid option for medium-term intravenous access in children undergoing surgery. Majority of patients will be successfully treated with one long peripheral cannula for the duration of their treatment without the need for further cannulation.
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- 2018
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10. International Study of the Epidemiology of Paediatric Trauma: PAPSA Research Study.
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Bradshaw CJ, Bandi AS, Muktar Z, Hasan MA, Chowdhury TK, Banu T, Hailemariam M, Ngu F, Croaker D, Bankolé R, Sholadoye T, Olaomi O, Ameh E, Di Cesare A, Leva E, Ringo Y, Abdur-Rahman L, Salama R, Elhalaby E, Perera H, Parsons C, Cleeve S, Numanoglu A, Van As S, Sharma S, and Lakhoo K
- Subjects
- Accidental Falls statistics & numerical data, Accidents, Traffic statistics & numerical data, Adolescent, Burns epidemiology, Child, Craniocerebral Trauma epidemiology, Female, Humans, Male, Prospective Studies, Registries, Thoracic Injuries epidemiology, Wounds and Injuries epidemiology
- Abstract
Objectives: Trauma is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The literature on paediatric trauma epidemiology in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited. This study aims to gather epidemiological data on paediatric trauma., Methods: This is a multicentre prospective cohort study of paediatric trauma admissions, over 1 month, from 15 paediatric surgery centres in 11 countries. Epidemiology, mechanism of injury, injuries sustained, management, morbidity and mortality data were recorded. Statistical analysis compared LMICs and high-income countries (HICs)., Results: There were 1377 paediatric trauma admissions over 31 days; 1295 admissions across ten LMIC centres and 84 admissions across five HIC centres. Median number of admissions per centre was 15 in HICs and 43 in LMICs. Mean age was 7 years, and 62% were boys. Common mechanisms included road traffic accidents (41%), falls (41%) and interpersonal violence (11%). Frequent injuries were lacerations, fractures, head injuries and burns. Intra-abdominal and intra-thoracic injuries accounted for 3 and 2% of injuries. The mechanisms and injuries sustained differed significantly between HICs and LMICs. Median length of stay was 1 day and 19% required an operative intervention; this did not differ significantly between HICs and LMICs. No mortality and morbidity was reported from HICs. In LMICs, in-hospital morbidity was 4.0% and mortality was 0.8%., Conclusion: The spectrum of paediatric trauma varies significantly, with different injury mechanisms and patterns in LMICs. Healthcare structure, access to paediatric surgery and trauma prevention strategies may account for these differences. Trauma registries are needed in LMICs for future research and to inform local policy.
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- 2018
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11. Outcomes of Esophageal Replacement: Gastric Pull-Up and Colonic Interposition Procedures.
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Bradshaw CJ, Sloan K, Morandi A, Lakshminarayanan B, Cox SG, Millar AJW, Numanoglu A, and Lakhoo K
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- Child, Child, Preschool, Esophageal Atresia mortality, Esophageal Stenosis mortality, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Infant, Male, Postoperative Complications epidemiology, Postoperative Complications etiology, Retrospective Studies, Treatment Outcome, Colon transplantation, Esophageal Atresia surgery, Esophageal Stenosis surgery, Esophagoplasty methods, Stomach surgery
- Abstract
Aim: No consensus exists about the optimal surgical technique for esophageal replacement. This study reports the surgical outcomes for the gastric pull-up and the colonic interposition procedures., Materials and Methods: A retrospective review of children undergoing esophageal replacement surgery between January 2001 and June 2015 across four different pediatric surgery centers was conducted. Data collected included indications, epidemiology, surgical technique, complications, and outcomes. Patients were divided into group A, those that had a gastric pull-up procedure and group B, those that had a colonic interposition procedure., Results: In total, 50 patients were included; 29 in group A and 21 in group B. Indications included esophageal atresia, caustic ingestion, and infective esophageal stricture. The median age at the time of surgery was 13 months. The mean length of follow-up was 5.2 years. Three patients died giving a mortality rate of 6%; 2 in group A and 1 in group B.In both groups, early postoperative complications included infective complications, such as wound infections, sepsis, and pneumonia (11), anastomotic leak (7), and respiratory complications (7). Late complications included adhesive bowel obstruction (2), anastomotic strictures (4), redundancy (1), and jejunostomy problems (1). Septic complications and anastomotic strictures occurred more frequently in group B. Further surgery was needed in eight patients; this was significantly higher in group B. Full oral feeding was achieved within 6 months in 91.5%., Conclusion: The gastric pull-up and colonic interposition have comparable mortality and outcomes. The colonic interposition was associated with a higher rate of early septic complications, anastomotic strictures, and need for further surgery., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest: None., (Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.)
- Published
- 2018
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12. Species decline under nitrogen fertilization increases community-level competence of fungal diseases.
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Liu X, Lyu S, Sun D, Bradshaw CJ, and Zhou S
- Subjects
- Fungi pathogenicity, Soil, Fertilizers, Grassland, Nitrogen, Plant Diseases microbiology
- Abstract
The artificial fertilization of soils can alter the structure of natural plant communities and exacerbate pathogen emergence and transmission. Although the direct effects of fertilization on disease resistance in plants have received some research attention, its indirect effects of altered community structure on the severity of fungal disease infection remain largely uninvestigated. We designed manipulation experiments in natural assemblages of Tibetan alpine meadow vegetation along a nitrogen-fertilization gradient over 5 years to compare the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of fertilization on foliar fungal infections at the community level. We found that species with lower proneness to pathogens were more likely to be extirpated following fertilization, such that community-level competence of disease, and thus community pathogen load, increased with the intensity of fertilization. The amount of nitrogen added (direct effect) and community disease competence (indirect effect) provided the most parsimonious combination of parameters explaining the variation in disease severity. Our experiment provides a mechanistic explanation for the dilution effect in fertilized, natural assemblages in a highly specific pathogen-host system, and thus insights into the consequences of human ecosystem modifications on the dynamics of infectious diseases., (© 2017 The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2017
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13. Advances in minimally invasive neonatal colorectal surgery.
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Bandi AS, Bradshaw CJ, and Giuliani S
- Abstract
Over the last two decades, advances in laparoscopic surgery and minimally invasive techniques have transformed the operative management of neonatal colorectal surgery for conditions such as anorectal malformations (ARMs) and Hirschsprung's disease. Evolution of surgical care has mainly occurred due to the use of laparoscopy, as opposed to a laparotomy, for intra-abdominal procedures and the development of trans-anal techniques. This review describes these advances and outlines the main minimally invasive techniques currently used for management of ARMs and Hirschsprung's disease. There does still remain significant variation in the procedures used and this review aims to report the current literature comparing techniques with an emphasis on the short- and long-term clinical outcomes., Competing Interests: Conflict-of-interest statement: Authors declare no conflict of interests in relation to this manuscript.
- Published
- 2016
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14. Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects.
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Bradshaw CJ, Leroy B, Bellard C, Roiz D, Albert C, Fournier A, Barbet-Massin M, Salles JM, Simard F, and Courchamp F
- Subjects
- Animals, Environment, Global Health, Health Care Costs, Health Expenditures, Humans, Insect Vectors, Introduced Species, Isoptera, Models, Economic, Public Policy, Conservation of Natural Resources, Insecta, Pest Control economics
- Abstract
Insects have presented human society with some of its greatest development challenges by spreading diseases, consuming crops and damaging infrastructure. Despite the massive human and financial toll of invasive insects, cost estimates of their impacts remain sporadic, spatially incomplete and of questionable quality. Here we compile a comprehensive database of economic costs of invasive insects. Taking all reported goods and service estimates, invasive insects cost a minimum of US$70.0 billion per year globally, while associated health costs exceed US$6.9 billion per year. Total costs rise as the number of estimate increases, although many of the worst costs have already been estimated (especially those related to human health). A lack of dedicated studies, especially for reproducible goods and service estimates, implies gross underestimation of global costs. Global warming as a consequence of climate change, rising human population densities and intensifying international trade will allow these costly insects to spread into new areas, but substantial savings could be achieved by increasing surveillance, containment and public awareness.
- Published
- 2016
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15. Accuracy of prenatal detection of tracheoesophageal fistula and oesophageal atresia.
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Bradshaw CJ, Thakkar H, Knutzen L, Marsh R, Pacilli M, Impey L, and Lakhoo K
- Subjects
- Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Prenatal Care, Retrospective Studies, Sensitivity and Specificity, Stomach diagnostic imaging, Stomach embryology, Esophageal Atresia diagnostic imaging, Polyhydramnios diagnostic imaging, Tracheoesophageal Fistula diagnostic imaging, Ultrasonography, Prenatal
- Abstract
Aims: This study aims to determine the rate of prenatal detection of tracheoesophageal fistula and oesophageal atresia (TOF/OA), by identifying a small or absent stomach bubble with or without polyhydramnios, on the prenatal ultrasound scans (USS)., Methods: A retrospective study of prenatal ultrasound findings of babies with a prenatal and postnatal diagnosis of TOF/OA born between 1st January 2004 and 31st December 2013 was undertaken., Results: A total of 58 babies were born with TOF/OA. 40% of mothers had their prenatal investigations performed within our tertiary centre, and the remaining 60% had their antenatal care at their local district general hospital (DGH). The overall sensitivity for prenatal USS was 26%, with a specificity of 99% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 35%. However, the sensitivity of the prenatal USS within the tertiary centre was significantly higher at 57%, while only 2 cases were detected prenatally in the DGHs. Polyhydramnios was seen in 67% of mothers that had a prenatal diagnosis of TOF/OA and its presence did significantly increase the positive predictive value of prenatal USS (from 35% to 63%). Of those that were postnatally diagnosed, 21% had prenatal polyhydramnios. There was no significant difference in postnatal outcomes between those that were prenatally diagnosed and those that were postnatally diagnosed., Conclusion: Prenatal diagnosis of TOF/OA remains challenging. However within a specialist centre the accuracy of successful prenatal detection can be significantly improved. This is beneficial both for prenatal counselling of families and for planning appropriate perinatal and postnatal care for the baby., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
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- 2016
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16. A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul's Quaternary vertebrates.
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Rodríguez-Rey M, Herrando-Pérez S, Brook BW, Saltré F, Alroy J, Beeton N, Bird MI, Cooper A, Gillespie R, Jacobs Z, Johnson CN, Miller GH, Prideaux GJ, Roberts RG, Turney CS, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Biological Evolution, Databases, Factual, Fossils, Vertebrates
- Abstract
The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests.
- Published
- 2016
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17. Warming and fertilization alter the dilution effect of host diversity on disease severity.
- Author
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Liu X, Lyu S, Zhou S, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Fertilizers, Phylogeny, Plant Diseases statistics & numerical data, Plants, Tibet, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Global Warming
- Abstract
An essential ecosystem service is the dilution effect of biodiversity on disease severity, yet we do not fully understand how this relationship might change with continued climate warming and ecosystem degradation. We designed removal experiments in natural assemblages of Tibetan alpine meadow vegetation by manipulating plot-level plant diversity to investigate the relationship between different plant biodiversity indices and foliar fungal pathogen infection, and how artificial fertilization and warming affect this relationship. Although pathogen group diversity increased with host species richness, disease severity decreased as host diversity rose (dilution effect). The dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity on disease held across different levels of host species richness (and equal abundances), meaning that the effect arises mainly in association with enhanced diversity itself rather than from shifting abundances. However, the dilution effect was weakened by fertilization. Among indices, phylogenetic diversity was the most parsimonious predictor of infection severity. Experimental warming and fertilization shifted species richness to the most supported predictor. Compared to planting experiments where artificial communities are constructed from scratch, our removal experiment in natural communities more realistically demonstrate that increasing perturbation adjusts natural community resistance to disease severity., (© 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.)
- Published
- 2016
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18. Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation.
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Metcalf JL, Turney C, Barnett R, Martin F, Bray SC, Vilstrup JT, Orlando L, Salas-Gismondi R, Loponte D, Medina M, De Nigris M, Civalero T, Fernández PM, Gasco A, Duran V, Seymour KL, Otaola C, Gil A, Paunero R, Prevosti FJ, Bradshaw CJ, Wheeler JC, Borrero L, Austin JJ, and Cooper A
- Subjects
- Animals, Bone and Bones chemistry, Bone and Bones metabolism, Camelidae classification, Camelidae genetics, DNA, Mitochondrial chemistry, DNA, Mitochondrial genetics, DNA, Mitochondrial metabolism, Felidae classification, Felidae genetics, Human Activities, Humans, Ice Cover, Radiometric Dating, Sequence Analysis, DNA, South America, Ursidae classification, Ursidae genetics, Climate Change, Extinction, Biological
- Abstract
The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts.
- Published
- 2016
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19. Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models.
- Author
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Block S, Saltré F, Rodríguez-Rey M, Fordham DA, Unkel I, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Australia, Marsupialia, Models, Statistical, Seasons, Fossils, Paleontology methods
- Abstract
Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism's past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings.
- Published
- 2016
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20. How to Rank Journals.
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Bradshaw CJ and Brook BW
- Subjects
- Cluster Analysis, Ecology, Humans, Internet, Journal Impact Factor, Medicine, Bibliometrics, Periodicals as Topic
- Abstract
There are now many methods available to assess the relative citation performance of peer-reviewed journals. Regardless of their individual faults and advantages, citation-based metrics are used by researchers to maximize the citation potential of their articles, and by employers to rank academic track records. The absolute value of any particular index is arguably meaningless unless compared to other journals, and different metrics result in divergent rankings. To provide a simple yet more objective way to rank journals within and among disciplines, we developed a κ-resampled composite journal rank incorporating five popular citation indices: Impact Factor, Immediacy Index, Source-Normalized Impact Per Paper, SCImago Journal Rank and Google 5-year h-index; this approach provides an index of relative rank uncertainty. We applied the approach to six sample sets of scientific journals from Ecology (n = 100 journals), Medicine (n = 100), Multidisciplinary (n = 50); Ecology + Multidisciplinary (n = 25), Obstetrics & Gynaecology (n = 25) and Marine Biology & Fisheries (n = 25). We then cross-compared the κ-resampled ranking for the Ecology + Multidisciplinary journal set to the results of a survey of 188 publishing ecologists who were asked to rank the same journals, and found a 0.68-0.84 Spearman's ρ correlation between the two rankings datasets. Our composite index approach therefore approximates relative journal reputation, at least for that discipline. Agglomerative and divisive clustering and multi-dimensional scaling techniques applied to the Ecology + Multidisciplinary journal set identified specific clusters of similarly ranked journals, with only Nature & Science separating out from the others. When comparing a selection of journals within or among disciplines, we recommend collecting multiple citation-based metrics for a sample of relevant and realistic journals to calculate the composite rankings and their relative uncertainty windows.
- Published
- 2016
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21. What caused extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna of Sahul?
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Johnson CN, Alroy J, Beeton NJ, Bird MI, Brook BW, Cooper A, Gillespie R, Herrando-Pérez S, Jacobs Z, Miller GH, Prideaux GJ, Roberts RG, Rodríguez-Rey M, Saltré F, Turney CS, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Australia, Humans, New Guinea, Paleontology, Birds physiology, Extinction, Biological, Mammals physiology, Reptiles physiology
- Abstract
During the Pleistocene, Australia and New Guinea supported a rich assemblage of large vertebrates. Why these animals disappeared has been debated for more than a century and remains controversial. Previous synthetic reviews of this problem have typically focused heavily on particular types of evidence, such as the dating of extinction and human arrival, and have frequently ignored uncertainties and biases that can lead to misinterpretation of this evidence. Here, we review diverse evidence bearing on this issue and conclude that, although many knowledge gaps remain, multiple independent lines of evidence point to direct human impact as the most likely cause of extinction., (© 2016 The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2016
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22. Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges.
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Mellin C, Mouillot D, Kulbicki M, McClanahan TR, Vigliola L, Bradshaw CJ, Brainard RE, Chabanet P, Edgar GJ, Fordham DA, Friedlander AM, Parravicini V, Sequeira AM, Stuart-Smith RD, Wantiez L, and Caley MJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Body Size, Humans, Stress, Physiological, Temperature, Biodiversity, Climate, Conservation of Natural Resources, Coral Reefs, Ecosystem, Fishes, Seasons
- Abstract
Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.
- Published
- 2016
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23. Climate change not to blame for late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia.
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Saltré F, Rodríguez-Rey M, Brook BW, Johnson CN, Turney CS, Alroy J, Cooper A, Beeton N, Bird MI, Fordham DA, Gillespie R, Herrando-Pérez S, Jacobs Z, Miller GH, Nogués-Bravo D, Prideaux GJ, Roberts RG, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Australia, Humans, Paleontology, Time Factors, Climate Change, Extinction, Biological
- Abstract
Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensemble-hindcasting approach to 659 Australian megafauna fossil ages. When coupled with analysis of several high-resolution climate records, we show that megafaunal extinctions were broadly synchronous among genera and independent of climate aridity and variability in Australia over the last 120,000 years. Our results reject climate change as the primary driver of megafauna extinctions in the world's most controversial context, and instead estimate that the megafauna disappeared Australia-wide ∼13,500 years after human arrival, with shorter periods of coexistence in some regions. This is the first comprehensive approach to incorporate uncertainty in fossil ages, extinction timing and climatology, to quantify mechanisms of prehistorical extinctions.
- Published
- 2016
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24. Current Practice and Outcomes in the Management of Intra-abdominal Testes.
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Stedman F, Bradshaw CJ, and Kufeji D
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Atrophy, Child, Child, Preschool, Cryptorchidism pathology, Humans, Infant, Male, Recurrence, Testis pathology, Testis surgery, Treatment Outcome, Cryptorchidism surgery, Laparoscopy methods, Orchiopexy methods
- Abstract
Introduction: Fowler-Stephens orchidopexy is the most widely used technique for the surgical management of intra-abdominal testes with laparoscopy being the preferred approach. The aim of this study was to review all two-stage laparoscopic Fowler-Stephens orchidopexies performed in one pediatric surgical unit over a 7-year period., Methods: A retrospective case series of all patients undergoing two-stage laparoscopic Fowler-Stephens orchidopexy was performed. Primary outcome measure was testicular atrophy at follow-up. Secondary outcomes included testicular atrophy at second-stage operation and testicular ascent requiring redo surgery., Results: A total of 83 two-stage laparoscopic Fowler-Stephens orchidopexy were performed, with outcome data available for 67. Median age at first stage was 1 year 11 months. No testes had undergone atrophy at the second-stage laparoscopy. Median follow-up was 1 year. The overall success rate was 86.4%. Seven patients were noted to have an atrophic testis at the initial clinic review. Five patients required redo orchidopexy for testicular ascent. Of these, two patients had a successful result, two patients subsequently had testicular atrophy and one awaits redo surgery., Conclusion: We conclude that Fowler-Stephens orchidopexy has a relatively good outcome. The rates of reoperation after the two-stage Fowler-Stephens orchidopexy were low in this study. Overall success rate compares very favorably to published literature., (Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.)
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- 2015
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25. PALEOECOLOGY. Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover.
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Cooper A, Turney C, Hughen KA, Brook BW, McDonald HG, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, DNA genetics, DNA history, DNA isolation & purification, Fossils history, History, Ancient, Humans, Paleontology, Population, Extinction, Biological, Global Warming history
- Abstract
The mechanisms of Late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions remain fiercely contested, with human impact or climate change cited as principal drivers. We compared ancient DNA and radiocarbon data from 31 detailed time series of regional megafaunal extinctions and replacements over the past 56,000 years with standard and new combined records of Northern Hemisphere climate in the Late Pleistocene. Unexpectedly, rapid climate changes associated with interstadial warming events are strongly associated with the regional replacement or extinction of major genetic clades or species of megafauna. The presence of many cryptic biotic transitions before the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary revealed by ancient DNA confirms the importance of climate change in megafaunal population extinctions and suggests that metapopulation structures necessary to survive such repeated and rapid climatic shifts were susceptible to human impacts., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)
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- 2015
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26. Key role for nuclear energy in global biodiversity conservation.
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Brook BW and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Biodiversity, Conservation of Natural Resources legislation & jurisprudence, Environmental Policy legislation & jurisprudence, Nuclear Energy economics, Renewable Energy economics
- Abstract
Modern society uses massive amounts of energy. Usage rises as population and affluence increase, and energy production and use often have an impact on biodiversity or natural areas. To avoid a business-as-usual dependence on coal, oil, and gas over the coming decades, society must map out a future energy mix that incorporates alternative sources. This exercise can lead to radically different opinions on what a sustainable energy portfolio might entail, so an objective assessment of the relative costs and benefits of different energy sources is required. We evaluated the land use, emissions, climate, and cost implications of 3 published but divergent storylines for future energy production, none of which was optimal for all environmental and economic indicators. Using multicriteria decision-making analysis, we ranked 7 major electricity-generation sources (coal, gas, nuclear, biomass, hydro, wind, and solar) based on costs and benefits and tested the sensitivity of the rankings to biases stemming from contrasting philosophical ideals. Irrespective of weightings, nuclear and wind energy had the highest benefit-to-cost ratio. Although the environmental movement has historically rejected the nuclear energy option, new-generation reactor technologies that fully recycle waste and incorporate passive safety systems might resolve their concerns and ought to be more widely understood. Because there is no perfect energy source however, conservation professionals ultimately need to take an evidence-based approach to consider carefully the integrated effects of energy mixes on biodiversity conservation. Trade-offs and compromises are inevitable and require advocating energy mixes that minimize net environmental damage. Society cannot afford to risk wholesale failure to address energy-related biodiversity impacts because of preconceived notions and ideals., (© 2014 The Authors Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)
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- 2015
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27. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.
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Gomez C, Williams AJ, Nicol SJ, Mellin C, Loeun KL, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Ecosystem, Fiji, Micronesia, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu, Fishes, Models, Theoretical
- Abstract
Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT) within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone) predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna). Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and conservation planning, and for predicting future distributions of deep-sea snappers.
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- 2015
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28. Reply to O'Neill et al. and O'Sullivan: Fertility reduction will help, but only in the long term.
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Bradshaw CJ and Brook BW
- Subjects
- Female, Humans, Male, Conservation of Natural Resources, Environmental Policy, Population Control, Population Growth
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- 2015
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29. Explaining maximum variation in productivity requires phylogenetic diversity and single functional traits.
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Liu J, Zhang X, Song F, Zhou S, Cadotte MW, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- China, Biodiversity, Biomass, Phylogeny, Plants
- Abstract
Many community experiments have shown a positive relationship between plant biodiversity and community productivity, with biodiversity measured in multiple ways based on taxonomy, function, and phylogeny. Whether these different measures of biodiversity and their interactions explain variation in productivity in natural assemblages has rarely been tested. In a removal experiment using natural alpine assemblages in the Tibetan Plateau, we manipulated species richness and functional diversity to examine how different measures of biodiversity predict aboveground biomass production. We combined different biodiversity measures (functional, phylogenetic, richness, evenness) in generalized linear models to determine which combinations provided the most parsimonious explanations of variation in biomass production. Although multivariate functional diversity indices alone consistently explained more variation in productivity than other single measures, phylogenetic diversity and plant height represented the most parsimonious combination. In natural assemblages, single metrics alone cannot fully explain ecosystem function. Instead, a combination of phylogenetic diversity and traits with weak or no phylogenetic signal is required to explain the effects of biodiversity loss on ecosystem function.
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- 2015
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30. Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems.
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Bradshaw CJ and Brook BW
- Subjects
- Demography, Disasters, Environment, Family Planning Services, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Models, Theoretical, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Public Policy, Social Planning, Conservation of Natural Resources trends, Environmental Policy, Population Control, Population Growth
- Abstract
The inexorable demographic momentum of the global human population is rapidly eroding Earth's life-support system. There are consequently more frequent calls to address environmental problems by advocating further reductions in human fertility. To examine how quickly this could lead to a smaller human population, we used scenario-based matrix modeling to project the global population to the year 2100. Assuming a continuation of current trends in mortality reduction, even a rapid transition to a worldwide one-child policy leads to a population similar to today's by 2100. Even a catastrophic mass mortality event of 2 billion deaths over a hypothetical 5-y window in the mid-21(st) century would still yield around 8.5 billion people by 2100. In the absence of catastrophe or large fertility reductions (to fewer than two children per female worldwide), the greatest threats to ecosystems--as measured by regional projections within the 35 global Biodiversity Hotspots--indicate that Africa and South Asia will experience the greatest human pressures on future ecosystems. Humanity's large demographic momentum means that there are no easy policy levers to change the size of the human population substantially over coming decades, short of extreme and rapid reductions in female fertility; it will take centuries, and the long-term target remains unclear. However, some reduction could be achieved by midcentury and lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed. More immediate results for sustainability would emerge from policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources.
- Published
- 2014
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31. Age at orchidopexy in the UK: has new evidence changed practice?
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Bradshaw CJ, Corbet-Burcher G, and Hitchcock R
- Subjects
- Attitude of Health Personnel, Child, Preschool, Cryptorchidism diagnosis, Humans, Infant, Male, Referral and Consultation, Retrospective Studies, United Kingdom, Age Factors, Cryptorchidism surgery, Orchiopexy, Practice Patterns, Physicians'
- Abstract
Introduction: Research suggesting progressive deterioration in an undescended testis has led to the reduction in the target age for orchidopexy to 6-12 months of age. This age was selected as normal testicular descent is unlikely after 3 months of age and it is timed to prevent early gonadocyte developmental delay as suggested by Hutson and Hasthorpe. This study aims to determine the current age at orchidopexy in one UK training centre and whether changing targets have altered practice., Methods: The demographics of orchidopexies performed at a single unit between 1998 and 2011 were reviewed., Results: A total of 1325 orchidopexies were performed over 13 years. The median age at orchidopexy fell between 1998 and 2011. There was an initial drop in the age for orchidopexy in 2000 corresponding with the change in target age to "less than 18 months". However, no subsequent improvement was seen over the following decade., Discussion: Early orchidopexy is not being achieved. We have identified how slowly such advice is implemented locally and recognise the national need to address this. The approach should include earlier primary care referral directly from the routine postnatal check to a centre prepared to undertake surgery in this age group., (Copyright © 2014 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2014
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32. Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds.
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Bradshaw CJ, Brook BW, Delean S, Fordham DA, Herrando-Pérez S, Cassey P, Early R, Sekercioglu CH, and Araújo MB
- Subjects
- Animals, Environment, Geography, Population Dynamics, Seasons, United Kingdom, Animal Distribution, Birds physiology, Climate Change
- Abstract
Geographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species' historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990 s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution-northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)
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- 2014
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33. Distribution models for koalas in South Australia using citizen science-collected data.
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Sequeira AM, Roetman PE, Daniels CB, Baker AK, and Bradshaw CJ
- Abstract
The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occurs in the eucalypt forests of eastern and southern Australia and is currently threatened by habitat fragmentation, climate change, sexually transmitted diseases, and low genetic variability throughout most of its range. Using data collected during the Great Koala Count (a 1-day citizen science project in the state of South Australia), we developed generalized linear mixed-effects models to predict habitat suitability across South Australia accounting for potential errors associated with the dataset. We derived spatial environmental predictors for vegetation (based on dominant species of Eucalyptus or other vegetation), topographic water features, rain, elevation, and temperature range. We also included predictors accounting for human disturbance based on transport infrastructure (sealed and unsealed roads). We generated random pseudo-absences to account for the high prevalence bias typical of citizen-collected data. We accounted for biased sampling effort along sealed and unsealed roads by including an offset for distance to transport infrastructures. The model with the highest statistical support (wAIC c ∼ 1) included all variables except rain, which was highly correlated with elevation. The same model also explained the highest deviance (61.6%), resulted in high R (2)(m) (76.4) and R (2)(c) (81.0), and had a good performance according to Cohen's κ (0.46). Cross-validation error was low (∼ 0.1). Temperature range, elevation, and rain were the best predictors of koala occurrence. Our models predict high habitat suitability in Kangaroo Island, along the Mount Lofty Ranges, and at the tips of the Eyre, Yorke and Fleurieu Peninsulas. In the highest-density region (5576 km(2)) of the Adelaide-Mount Lofty Ranges, a density-suitability relationship predicts a population of 113,704 (95% confidence interval: 27,685-199,723; average density = 5.0-35.8 km(-2)). We demonstrate the power of citizen science data for predicting species' distributions provided that the statistical approaches applied account for some uncertainties and potential biases. A future improvement to citizen science surveys to provide better data on search effort is that smartphone apps could be activated at the start of the search. The results of our models provide preliminary ranges of habitat suitability and population size for a species for which previous data have been difficult or impossible to gather otherwise.
- Published
- 2014
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34. Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.
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Herrando-Pérez S, Delean S, Brook BW, Cassey P, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Ecosystem, Models, Theoretical, Population Dynamics, Birds physiology, Climate, Mammals physiology, Population Density, Spatial Analysis
- Abstract
The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate.
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- 2014
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35. An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia.
- Author
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Prowse TA, Johnson CN, Bradshaw CJ, and Brook BW
- Subjects
- Animals, Australia, Canidae, Climate Change, Humans, Models, Biological, Biological Evolution, Ecosystem, Predatory Behavior
- Abstract
The mass extinction events during human prehistory are striking examples of ecological regime shifts, the causes of which are still hotly debated. In Australia, human arrival approximately 50 thousand years ago was associated with the continental-scale extinction of numerous marsupial megafauna species and a permanent change in vegetation structure. An alternative stable state persisted until a second regime shift occurred during the late Holocene, when the largest two remaining marsupial carnivores, the thylacine and devil, disappeared from mainland Australia. These extinctions have been widely attributed to the human-assisted invasion of a competing predator, the dingo. In this unusual case, the simultaneous effects of human "intensification" (population growth and technological advances) and climate change (particularly increased ENSO variability) have been largely overlooked. We developed a dynamic model system capable of simulating the complex interactions between the main predators (humans, thylacines, devils, dingoes) and their marsupial prey (macropods), which we coupled with reconstructions of human population growth and climate change for late-Holocene Australia. Because the strength of important interspecific interactions cannot be estimated directly, we used detailed scenario testing and sensitivity analysis to identify robust model outcomes and investigate competing explanations for the Holocene regime shift. This approach identified human intensification as the most probable cause, while also demonstrating the potential importance of synergies with the effects of climate change. Our models indicate that the prehistoric impact of humans on Australian mammals was not limited to the late Pleistocene (i.e., the megafaunal extinctions) but extended into the late Holocene.
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- 2014
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36. Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks.
- Author
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Sequeira AM, Mellin C, Fordham DA, Meekan MG, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Atlantic Ocean, Climate Change, Demography statistics & numerical data, Forecasting, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Ecosystem, Linear Models, Sharks
- Abstract
The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
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- 2014
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37. Button vesicostomy: 13 years of experience.
- Author
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Bradshaw CJ, Gray R, Downer A, and Hitchcock R
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Cystostomy instrumentation, Equipment Design, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Muscle Hypotonia, Retrospective Studies, Treatment Outcome, Urinary Bladder physiopathology, Urinary Bladder, Neurogenic pathology, Urinary Bladder, Neurogenic physiopathology, Cystostomy methods, Urinary Bladder, Neurogenic surgery
- Abstract
Introduction: Over recent years the button vesicostomy has become an alternative management option in children with poor bladder emptying, when clean intermittent catheterisation (CIC) cannot be initiated for reasons of age, sensation, or urethral anatomy. This study reviews recent experience of this technique and evaluates its use., Methods: Retrospective review of patients who had a button vesicostomy to permit bladder drainage between 1998 and 2011., Results: Thirty children underwent button vesicostomy insertion aged between 4 days and 16 years. Indications were neuropathic bladders (n = 15), congenital hypotonic bladders (n = 6), functional bladder disorders (n = 5), and post-obstruction bladders (n = 4). The median length of use was 11 months; however, 7 patients still have the button in situ. Minor complications (n = 12) included transient leakage, wound infection, and overgranulation. Major complications included 2 UTIs, 1 device failure, and 2 significant leaks, requiring revision of the tract and removal of the button., Conclusion: The button vesicostomy is a suitable and safe technique for use in the short- and medium-term. The procedure has minimal morbidity and therefore is acceptable to families. It has a wide scope, including patients with a neuropathic bladder as an alternative to CIC and where temporary drainage is required until bladder function can recover., (Copyright © 2013 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2014
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38. Strong but opposing β-diversity-stability relationships in coral reef fish communities.
- Author
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Mellin C, Bradshaw CJ, Fordham DA, and Caley MJ
- Subjects
- Animals, Australia, Biota, Biodiversity, Coral Reefs, Fishes physiology
- Abstract
The 'diversity-stability hypothesis', in which higher species diversity within biological communities buffers the risk of ecological collapse, is now generally accepted. However, empirical evidence for a relationship between β-diversity (spatial turnover in community structure) and temporal stability in community structure remains equivocal, despite important implications for theoretical ecology and conservation biology. Here, we report strong β-diversity-stability relationships across a broad sample of fish taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These relationships were robust to random sampling error and spatial and environmental factors, such as latitude, reef size and isolation. While β-diversity was positively associated with temporal stability at the community level, the relationship was negative for some taxa, for example surgeonfishes (Acanthuridae), one of the most abundant reef fish families. This demonstrates that the β-diversity-stability relationship should not be indiscriminately assumed for all taxa, but that a species' risk of extirpation in response to disturbance is likely to be taxon specific and trait based. By combining predictions of spatial and temporal turnover across the study area with observations in marine-protected areas, we conclude that protection alone does not necessarily confer temporal stability and that taxon-specific considerations will improve the outcome of conservation efforts.
- Published
- 2014
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39. Continental-scale governance and the hastening of loss of Australia's biodiversity.
- Author
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Ritchie EG, Bradshaw CJ, Dickman CR, Hobbs R, Johnson CN, Johnston EL, Laurance WF, Lindenmayer D, McCarthy MA, Nimmo DG, Possingham HH, Pressey RL, Watson DM, and Woinarski J
- Subjects
- Australia, Conservation of Natural Resources methods, Biodiversity, Conservation of Natural Resources legislation & jurisprudence
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
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40. Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change.
- Author
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Fordham DA, Mellin C, Russell BD, Akçakaya RH, Bradshaw CJ, Aiello-Lammens ME, Caley JM, Connell SD, Mayfield S, Shepherd SA, and Brook BW
- Subjects
- Animals, Australia, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Climate Change, Gastropoda physiology, Models, Theoretical
- Abstract
Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
- Published
- 2013
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41. Near-complete extinction of native small mammal fauna 25 years after forest fragmentation.
- Author
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Gibson L, Lynam AJ, Bradshaw CJ, He F, Bickford DP, Woodruff DS, Bumrungsri S, and Laurance WF
- Subjects
- Animals, Biodiversity, Humans, Islands, Thailand, Conservation of Natural Resources, Extinction, Biological, Mammals classification, Trees
- Abstract
Tropical forests continue to be felled and fragmented around the world. A key question is how rapidly species disappear from forest fragments and how quickly humans must restore forest connectivity to minimize extinctions. We surveyed small mammals on forest islands in Chiew Larn Reservoir in Thailand 5 to 7 and 25 to 26 years after isolation and observed the near-total loss of native small mammals within 5 years from <10-hectare (ha) fragments and within 25 years from 10- to 56-ha fragments. Based on our results, we developed an island biogeographic model and estimated mean extinction half-life (50% of resident species disappearing) to be 13.9 years. These catastrophic extinctions were probably partly driven by an invasive rat species; such biotic invasions are becoming increasingly common in human-modified landscapes. Our results are thus particularly relevant to other fragmented forest landscapes and suggest that small fragments are potentially even more vulnerable to biodiversity loss than previously thought.
- Published
- 2013
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42. Lack of chronological support for stepwise prehuman extinctions of Australian megafauna.
- Author
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Brook BW, Bradshaw CJ, Cooper A, Johnson CN, Worthy TH, Bird M, Gillespie R, and Roberts RG
- Subjects
- Animals, Humans, Climate Change, Extinction, Biological, Vertebrates
- Published
- 2013
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43. 50/500 rule and minimum viable populations: response to Jamieson and Allendorf.
- Author
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Frankham R, Brook BW, Bradshaw CJ, Traill LW, and Spielman D
- Subjects
- Animals, Humans, Biological Evolution, Extinction, Biological, Models, Statistical, Population Density
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
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44. Sequencing ancient calcified dental plaque shows changes in oral microbiota with dietary shifts of the Neolithic and Industrial revolutions.
- Author
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Adler CJ, Dobney K, Weyrich LS, Kaidonis J, Walker AW, Haak W, Bradshaw CJ, Townsend G, Sołtysiak A, Alt KW, Parkhill J, and Cooper A
- Subjects
- Biological Evolution, Dental Plaque microbiology, High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing, Humans, Mouth Mucosa pathology, Archaeology, Dental Plaque genetics, Diet, Industry, Metagenome genetics, Mouth Mucosa microbiology
- Abstract
The importance of commensal microbes for human health is increasingly recognized, yet the impacts of evolutionary changes in human diet and culture on commensal microbiota remain almost unknown. Two of the greatest dietary shifts in human evolution involved the adoption of carbohydrate-rich Neolithic (farming) diets (beginning ∼10,000 years before the present) and the more recent advent of industrially processed flour and sugar (in ∼1850). Here, we show that calcified dental plaque (dental calculus) on ancient teeth preserves a detailed genetic record throughout this period. Data from 34 early European skeletons indicate that the transition from hunter-gatherer to farming shifted the oral microbial community to a disease-associated configuration. The composition of oral microbiota remained unexpectedly constant between Neolithic and medieval times, after which (the now ubiquitous) cariogenic bacteria became dominant, apparently during the Industrial Revolution. Modern oral microbiotic ecosystems are markedly less diverse than historic populations, which might be contributing to chronic oral (and other) disease in postindustrial lifestyles.
- Published
- 2013
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45. No need for disease: testing extinction hypotheses for the thylacine using multi-species metamodels.
- Author
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Prowse TA, Johnson CN, Lacy RC, Bradshaw CJ, Pollak JP, Watts MJ, and Brook BW
- Subjects
- Animals, Ecosystem, Tasmania, Time Factors, Extinction, Biological, Marsupialia genetics, Marsupialia physiology, Models, Biological
- Abstract
Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess the extinction risk of threatened species and to evaluate different management strategies. However, conventional PVA neglects important biotic interactions and therefore can fail to identify important threatening processes. We designed a new PVA approach that includes species interactions explicitly by networking species models within a single 'metamodel'. We demonstrate the utility of PVA metamodels by employing them to reinterpret the extinction of the carnivorous, marsupial thylacine Thylacinus cynocephalus in Tasmania. In particular, we test the claim that well-documented impacts of European settlement cannot account for this extinction and that an unknown disease must have been an additional and necessary cause. We first constructed a classical, single-species PVA model for thylacines, which was then extended by incorporation within a dynamic predator-herbivore-vegetation metamodel that accounted for the influence of Europeans on the thylacine's prey base. Given obvious parameter uncertainties, we explored both modelling approaches with rigorous sensitivity analyses. Single-species PVA models were unable to recreate the thylacine's extinction unless a high human harvest, small starting population size or low maximum population growth rate was assumed, even if disease effects were included from 1906 to 1909. In contrast, we readily recreated the thylacine's demise using disease-free multi-species metamodels that simulated declines in native prey populations (particularly due to competition with introduced sheep). Dynamic, multi-species metamodels provide a simple, flexible framework for studying current species declines and historical extinctions caused by complex, interacting factors., (© 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.)
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- 2013
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46. Inferred global connectivity of whale shark Rhincodon typus populations.
- Author
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Sequeira AM, Mellin C, Meekan MG, Sims DW, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Animal Migration, Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Demography, Models, Biological, Ecosystem, Sharks physiology
- Abstract
Ten years have passed since the last synopsis of whale shark Rhincodon typus biogeography. While a recent review of the species' biology and ecology summarized the vast data collected since then, it is clear that information on population geographic connectivity, migration and demography of R. typus is still limited and scattered. Understanding R. typus migratory behaviour is central to its conservation management considering the genetic evidence suggesting local aggregations are connected at the generational scale over entire ocean basins. By collating available data on sightings, tracked movements and distribution information, this review provides evidence for the hypothesis of broad-scale connectivity among populations, and generates a model describing how the world's R. typus are part of a single, global meta-population. Rhincodon typus occurrence timings and distribution patterns make possible a connection between several aggregation sites in the Indian Ocean. The present conceptual model and validating data lend support to the hypothesis that R. typus are able to move among the three largest ocean basins with a minimum total travelling time of around 2-4 years. The model provides a worldwide perspective of possible R. typus migration routes, and suggests a modified focus for additional research to test its predictions. The framework can be used to trim the hypotheses for R. typus movements and aggregation timings, thereby isolating possible mating and breeding areas that are currently unknown. This will assist endeavours to predict the longer-term response of the species to ocean warming and changing patterns of human-induced mortality., (© 2013 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)
- Published
- 2013
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47. Depletion of deep marine food patches forces divers to give up early.
- Author
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Thums M, Bradshaw CJ, Sumner MD, Horsburgh JM, and Hindell MA
- Subjects
- Animals, Antarctic Regions, Lipid Metabolism, Diving, Ecosystem, Feeding Behavior physiology, Oceans and Seas, Seals, Earless physiology
- Abstract
Many optimal foraging models for diving animals examine strategies that maximize time spent in the foraging zone, assuming that prey acquisition increases linearly with search time. Other models have considered the effect of patch quality and predict a net energetic benefit if dives where no prey is encountered early in the dive are abandoned. For deep divers, however, the energetic benefit of giving up is reduced owing to the elevated energy costs associated with descending to physiologically hostile depths, so patch residence time should be invariant. Others consider an asymptotic gain function where the decision to leave a patch is driven by patch-depletion effects - the marginal value theorem. As predator behaviour is increasingly being used as an index of marine resource density and distribution, it is important to understand the nature of this gain function. We investigated the dive behaviour of the world's deepest-diving seal, the southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina, in response to patch quality. Testing these models has largely been limited to controlled experiments on captive animals. By integrating in situ measurements of the seal's relative lipid content obtained from drift rate data (a measure of foraging success) with area-restricted search behaviour identified from first-passage time analysis, we identified regions of high- and low-quality patches. Dive durations and bottom times were not invariant and did not increase in regions of high quality; rather, both were longer when patches were of relatively low quality. This is consistent with the predictions of the marginal value theorem and provides support for a nonlinear relationship between search time and prey acquisition. We also found higher descent and ascent rates in high-quality patches suggesting that seals minimized travel time to the foraging patch when quality was high; however, this was not achieved by increasing speed or dive angle. Relative body lipid content was an important predictor of dive behaviour. Seals did not schedule their diving to maximize time spent in the foraging zone in higher-quality patches, challenging the widely held view that maximizing time in the foraging zone translates to greater foraging success., (© 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.)
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Density dependence: an ecological Tower of Babel.
- Author
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Herrando-Pérez S, Delean S, Brook BW, and Bradshaw CJ
- Subjects
- Ecology standards, Population Density, Terminology as Topic
- Abstract
The concept of density dependence represents the effect of changing population size on demographic rates and captures the demographic role of social and trophic mechanisms (e.g. competition, cooperation, parasitism or predation). Ecologists have coined more than 60 terms to denote different statistical and semantic properties of this concept, resulting in a formidable lexicon of synonymies and polysemies. We have examined the vocabulary of density dependence used in the modern ecological literature from the foundational lexicon developed by Smith, Allee, Haldane, Neave and Varley. A few simple rules suffice to abate terminological inconsistency and to enhance the biological meaning of this important concept. Correct citation of original references by ecologists and research journals could ameliorate terminological standards in our discipline and avoid linguistic confusion of mathematically and theoretically complex patterns.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas.
- Author
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Laurance WF, Useche DC, Rendeiro J, Kalka M, Bradshaw CJ, Sloan SP, Laurance SG, Campbell M, Abernethy K, Alvarez P, Arroyo-Rodriguez V, Ashton P, Benítez-Malvido J, Blom A, Bobo KS, Cannon CH, Cao M, Carroll R, Chapman C, Coates R, Cords M, Danielsen F, De Dijn B, Dinerstein E, Donnelly MA, Edwards D, Edwards F, Farwig N, Fashing P, Forget PM, Foster M, Gale G, Harris D, Harrison R, Hart J, Karpanty S, Kress WJ, Krishnaswamy J, Logsdon W, Lovett J, Magnusson W, Maisels F, Marshall AR, McClearn D, Mudappa D, Nielsen MR, Pearson R, Pitman N, van der Ploeg J, Plumptre A, Poulsen J, Quesada M, Rainey H, Robinson D, Roetgers C, Rovero F, Scatena F, Schulze C, Sheil D, Struhsaker T, Terborgh J, Thomas D, Timm R, Urbina-Cardona JN, Vasudevan K, Wright SJ, Arias-G JC, Arroyo L, Ashton M, Auzel P, Babaasa D, Babweteera F, Baker P, Banki O, Bass M, Bila-Isia I, Blake S, Brockelman W, Brokaw N, Brühl CA, Bunyavejchewin S, Chao JT, Chave J, Chellam R, Clark CJ, Clavijo J, Congdon R, Corlett R, Dattaraja HS, Dave C, Davies G, Beisiegel Bde M, da Silva Rde N, Di Fiore A, Diesmos A, Dirzo R, Doran-Sheehy D, Eaton M, Emmons L, Estrada A, Ewango C, Fedigan L, Feer F, Fruth B, Willis JG, Goodale U, Goodman S, Guix JC, Guthiga P, Haber W, Hamer K, Herbinger I, Hill J, Huang Z, Sun IF, Ickes K, Itoh A, Ivanauskas N, Jackes B, Janovec J, Janzen D, Jiangming M, Jin C, Jones T, Justiniano H, Kalko E, Kasangaki A, Killeen T, King HB, Klop E, Knott C, Koné I, Kudavidanage E, Ribeiro JL, Lattke J, Laval R, Lawton R, Leal M, Leighton M, Lentino M, Leonel C, Lindsell J, Ling-Ling L, Linsenmair KE, Losos E, Lugo A, Lwanga J, Mack AL, Martins M, McGraw WS, McNab R, Montag L, Thompson JM, Nabe-Nielsen J, Nakagawa M, Nepal S, Norconk M, Novotny V, O'Donnell S, Opiang M, Ouboter P, Parker K, Parthasarathy N, Pisciotta K, Prawiradilaga D, Pringle C, Rajathurai S, Reichard U, Reinartz G, Renton K, Reynolds G, Reynolds V, Riley E, Rödel MO, Rothman J, Round P, Sakai S, Sanaiotti T, Savini T, Schaab G, Seidensticker J, Siaka A, Silman MR, Smith TB, de Almeida SS, Sodhi N, Stanford C, Stewart K, Stokes E, Stoner KE, Sukumar R, Surbeck M, Tobler M, Tscharntke T, Turkalo A, Umapathy G, van Weerd M, Rivera JV, Venkataraman M, Venn L, Verea C, de Castilho CV, Waltert M, Wang B, Watts D, Weber W, West P, Whitacre D, Whitney K, Wilkie D, Williams S, Wright DD, Wright P, Xiankai L, Yonzon P, and Zamzani F
- Subjects
- Agriculture statistics & numerical data, Animals, Data Collection, Ecology statistics & numerical data, Environmental Pollution adverse effects, Environmental Pollution statistics & numerical data, Fires statistics & numerical data, Forestry statistics & numerical data, Interviews as Topic, Mining statistics & numerical data, Population Growth, Rain, Reproducibility of Results, Research Personnel, Surveys and Questionnaires, Temperature, Biodiversity, Conservation of Natural Resources statistics & numerical data, Endangered Species statistics & numerical data, Trees physiology, Tropical Climate
- Abstract
The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses. As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world’s major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve ‘health’: about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Strength of density feedback in census data increases from slow to fast life histories.
- Author
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Herrando-Pérez S, Delean S, Brook BW, and Bradshaw CJ
- Abstract
Life-history theory predicts an increasing rate of population growth among species arranged along a continuum from slow to fast life histories. We examine the effects of this continuum on density-feedback strength estimated using long-term census data from >700 vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants. Four life-history traits (Age at first reproduction, Body size, Fertility, Longevity) were related statistically to Gompertz strength of density feedback using generalized linear mixed-effects models and multi-model inference. Life-history traits alone explained 10 to 30% of the variation in strength across species (after controlling for time-series length and phylogenetic nonindependence). Effect sizes were largest for body size in mammals and longevity in birds, and density feedback was consistently stronger for smaller-bodied and shorter-lived species. Overcompensatory density feedback (strength <-1) occurred in 20% of species, predominantly at the fast end of the life-history continuum, implying relatively high population variability. These results support the idea that life history leaves an evolutionary signal in long-term population trends as inferred from census data. Where there is a lack of detailed demographic data, broad life-history information can inform management and conservation decisions about rebound capacity from low numbers, and propensity to fluctuate, of arrays of species in areas planned for development, harvesting, protection, and population recovery.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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