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Objectives. We estimated the long-term effects of smoking cessation interventions to inform government decision-making regarding investment in tobacco control. Methods. We extracted data from the 2006 New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey and other sources and developed a system dynamics model with the iThink computer simulation package. The model derived estimates of population cessation rates from smoking behaviors and applied these over a 50-year period, from 2001 to 2051, under business-as-usual and enhanced cessation intervention scenarios. Results. The model predicted larger effects by 2051 with the enhanced cessation than with the business-as-usual scenario, including: an 11% greater decline in adult current smoking prevalence (9 versus 10 per 100 people), 16% greater decline in per capita tobacco consumption (370 versus 440 cigarette equivalents per year), and 11% greater reduction in tobacco-attributable mortality (3000 versus 3300 deaths per year). Conclusions. The model generated reliable estimates of the effects on health and on tobacco use of interventions designed to enhance smoking cessation. These results informed a decision announced in May 2007 to increase funding for smoking cessation by NZ$42 million over 4 years. (Am J Public Health. 2010; 100:1274-1281. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.171165)

Aim: In 2005 the National Screening Unit of the Ministry of Health appointed a Colorectal Screening Advisory Group to provide independent strategic advice and recommendations on population screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in New Zealand., Method: Evidence-based review of relevant literature and assessment of CRC screening using the New Zealand Criteria to Assess Screening Programmes., Results: Guaiac faecal occult blood test (FOBTg), immunochemical FOBT (FOBTi), flexible sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, and CT colonography were considered. FOBTg is the only test supported by high quality evidence from randomised controlled trials but has limited sensitivity and achieves modest CRC mortality reduction over time. FOBTi has higher analytical sensitivity than FOBTg and would be assumed to achieve greater mortality reduction. A CRC screening programme requires substantial planning and resources. Currently public hospitals cannot deliver timely diagnostic or surveillance colonoscopy., Conclusion: The Advisory Group recommends that a feasibility study of CRC screening using FOBTi be undertaken. This would help determine the performance of the FOBTi in the New Zealand population and whether the New Zealand health system could support an acceptable, effective and economically efficient CRC screening programme. To optimise the diagnosis and treatment of colorectal cancer there is an immediate need to expand colonoscopy services and to ensure that throughout New Zealand the treatment outcomes for CRC, both surgical and oncological, meet international standards.