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Background: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis, but there are limited noninvasive tools available to estimate cirrhosis risk, including in patients receiving antiviral therapy. This study developed and validated a simple model to assess risk in CHB patients.Methods: The derivation cohort included 3000 CHB patients from 6 centers in the United States, with 52.60% receiving antiviral therapy. External validation was performed for 4552 CHB individuals from similar cohorts in Taiwan, with 21.27% receiving therapy. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen predictors and develop the risk score for cirrhosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated for predictive value.Results: Sex, age, diabetes, antiviral treatment status/duration, hepatitis B e-antigen, and baseline alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase levels were significantly associated with increased cirrhosis risk. A 13-point risk score was developed based on these predictors. The AUROCs for predicting cirrhosis risk were 0.82 at 3 years, 0.85 at 5 years, and 0.89 at 10 years in the derivation cohort, and 0.82, 0.79, and 0.77 in the validation cohort, respectively.Conclusions: We developed and validated a simple cirrhosis prediction model with an independent external cohort that can be applied to both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced CHB patients in diverse settings and locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: It is unclear whether entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) differ in their effectiveness for preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)., Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed an international consortium that encompassed 19 centers from 6 countries or regions composed of previously untreated CHB patients then treated with either ETV or TDF monotherapy. Those who developed HCC before antiviral treatment or within 1 year of therapy were excluded. The association between antiviral regimen and HCC risk was evaluated using competing-risk survival regression. We also applied propensity score matching (PSM) to 1:1 balance the 2 treatment cohorts. A total of 5,537 patients were eligible (n = 4,837 received ETV and n = 700 received TDF) and observed for HCC occurrence until December 23, 2018. Before PSM, the TDF cohort was significantly younger and had generally less advanced diseases., Results: In the unadjusted analysis, TDF was associated with a lower risk of HCC (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 0.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.79; P = 0.005). The multivariable analysis, however, found that the association between TDF and HCC no longer existed (SHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.42-1.56; P = 0.52) after adjustment for age, sex, country, albumin, platelet, α-fetoprotein, cirrhosis, and diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, the PSM analysis (n = 1,040) found no between-cohort differences in HCC incidences (P = 0.51) and no association between regimens (TDF or ETV) and HCC risk in the multivariable-adjusted analysis (adjusted SHR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.41-1.92; P = 0.77)., Discussion: TDF and ETV did not significantly differ in the prevention of HCC in patients with CHB.