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As China reaffirms its commitments to limit the climate change risk and improve air quality, a combination of new policy and technology opportunities is presenting itself. A national emission trading scheme (ETS) begun in 2017 and is showing great promise, creating decentralized incentives for cost effective pollution mitigation. At the same time, sustained energy sector innovation is driving the costs of renewable electric power generation below those of fossil fuel substitutes. Early economic evidence of ETS measured pollution reductions, but has not addressed important economy-wide net benefits. This paper focuses on technology and energy cost savings and is the first to account for three multiplier effects—shifting consumption patterns, job growth, and the benefits of induced productivity growth—that would result from accelerated renewable electricity deployment in China. Results from a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model for 2017 to 2030 show that expanding renewable deployment can interact with the ETS to slash GHG emissions, as well as energy costs, stimulating significant long-term economic growth. These results suggest that China should accelerate its clean energy transition, not only for the air-quality and climate benefits, but to fulfill the energy sector's potential to promote innovation, employment, and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: China has been the world''s most vibrant economy and its largest source of energy demand growth over the past two decades, accounting for more than one-quarter of net growth in global primary energy consumption from 1980 to 2005. To sustain economic growth and rising living standards, China needs effective policies that anticipate and shape the country''s future energy requirements. In this paper, we examine China''s national economic and energy accounts over the past decade for insights into changing energy use patterns and their relationship to economic structure. Our results indicate that incipient structural changes in the Chinese energy economy and sustained economic and energy demand growth in China will pose important, and different, challenges for policymakers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The very rapid economic growth of the People's Republic of China (PRC), its dramatic success in world export markets and its heavy receipts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have generated much thought and debate in policy and business circles in different parts of the world. This paper surveys evidence from research by ADB Institute staff and Visiting Fellows conducted over the last two years that sheds light on these issues. The paper examines differences in trade structure between the PRC and its trading partners, finding that the PRC's current structure is closest to that of Korea and Taipei, China in 1990. It also considers changes in market share and finds that the PRC exports are eroding the market share of its regional neighbours in the USA and Japan, particularly in products in which trading partners are most specialised. There is no evidence of FDI diversion from elsewhere in the region to PRC. The trade diversion effects in the US and Japan are offset however by strong trade creation as the rapid growth in PRC leads to a substantial rise in its imports. The paper surveys the projections of models that demonstrate the gains in greater trade and income for the region from closer trade links with the PRC. The broad conclusion that emerges is that whilst there may be risks to individual sectors in all countries concerned, the pattern of regional trade and investment that is emerging is mutually beneficial, provided enterprises and governments representing the PRC's regional partners respond effectively to the adjustments required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets, China has developed a series of low carbon development plans. Among them, the clean energy transformation is very crucial. This study evaluates the impact of a set of policies including the development of renewable energy, upgrading heavy industry, and energy efficiency improvement on China's income gap between 2012 and 2050. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed representations of economic activity, an upgraded labor market and disaggregated labor types based on statistical and survey data is used. Our research provides support for the necessity of low-carbon policies to achieve NDC targets. Results show some key findings. First, low-carbon policies have the greatest impact on employment across all energy industries, with negative impacts in most traditional energy sectors and positive impacts in most renewable power sectors. Second, labor will continue to migrate from rural to urban areas with the transformation of the economic structure and the urbanization rate will further increase, reaching a maximum of around 70%. The reduction of the rural population will bring new opportunities for the modernization of agriculture, increasing the income of rural residents and realizing the equitable development between urban and rural areas. Third, the income gap among urban residents will widen due to the different level of labor demand for employees with different education levels. • The impact of low carbon policies on employment and income is assessed. • A dynamic CGE model with disaggregated labor types is developed. • Policies have the positive employment impact in the renewable energy industries. • The income gap will decline between urban and rural residents. • The income gap will widen among urban residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Employment impacts are one of the most important social impacts associated with the development of renewable energy, and are also one of the key concerns for policy makers designing renewable energy policies. Current studies tend to focus on the direct job changes in renewable sectors per se and on the indirect job changes along value chains of renewable energy, therefore depicting a picture of prosperity with large amounts of “green jobs”. However, the induced job changes in other sectors that are not directly in the value chains but are still influenced by electricity price changes and related financial resource transfers have usually been neglected, resulting in an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of this specific category of social impact. By using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China that incorporates detailed renewable power generation technologies and considers labor market imperfections, our study tries to fill this gap and quantifies the full scope of job changes (direct, indirect and induced) brought by renewable energy development in China. Results show that per 1 TW h expansion of solar PV and wind power would create up to 45.1 thousand and 15.8 thousand, respectively, direct and indirect jobs in China. However, the scale of induced job changes is quite significant and may even lead to net job losses in the whole economy in some cases. We have further revealed the sectoral contributors to total job changes. In all, there are no assured conclusions on the occurrence of green jobs when developing renewable energy. The impacts are highly dependent on the species of renewable energy, the financing mechanisms for renewable subsidies, and the scopes of employment impacts. We suggest that full-scope employment impacts should be carefully considered and the detailed supporting policies should be carefully designed by decision makers when promoting renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Balancing the need to increase crop yields with the need to reduce the environmental impacts of fertilizers will pose major policy, regulatory, and extension challenges for China. A growing number of studies have demonstrated the potential for improving fertilizer use efficiency in China, but it is not clear how to achieve these efficiency improvements on a larger scale. The empirical foundation for fertilizer policy in China is still weak, particularly in inland provinces. This paper examines fertilizer use patterns in Yunnan Province, an inland and ecologically important province in Southwest China, drawing on two household surveys. We find that fertilizer application rates in the survey areas are highly heterogeneous, among crops, households, and regions. Managing this diversity poses the largest challenge to fertilizer policy in Yunnan and, by extension, in China. None of the factors that we examine in this study are robust predictors of fertilizer intensity (kgha−1) in the survey regions, though in one survey there is a strong inverse relationship between farm size and fertilizer intensity. The lack of clearer signals in the survey data, a consequence of heterogeneity in cropping patterns, agroecosystems, and local economies, underscores the importance of locally tailored approaches to fertilizer regulation in China, and of a strong, service-oriented agricultural extension system oriented around sustainable agriculture. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]