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• A framework was proposed for the allocation of PES funds under future scenarios. • The ESV is highest in ecological conservation scenario, while fund is the lowest. • In the future, financial investment in the Qinghai Province needs to be increased. • The exploration of horizontal compensation mechanisms should be encouraged. Reasonable payments of Ecosystem Services (PES) standards are crucial to provide eco-environment management countermeasures. However, existing research on the unified coordination of future PES from the overall perspective is insufficient. This paper proposes a framework derived from the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and the ecosystem services value (ESV) assessment method for allocation PES funds. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) was taken as a case study, which is a highly integrated and interconnected entity. The PLUS model was used to analyze various land-use situations from 2010 to 2020, and predict future land-use status under different development scenarios including natural development (ND), cropland conservation (CC) and ecological conservation (EC). The ESV approach was applied to calculate the ESV in nine provinces of the YRB, and propose optimized fund distribution schemes. The results showed that (1) The most significant land-use changes during 2010–2020 were impervious, forests, grasslands, and croplands, where the impervious increased by 22.47 % (4642 km2) and the forest increased by 9 % (7623 km2). (2) The total ESV in the YRB will be highest under EC scenario in 2030, at 729.16 billion CNY, and Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu and Shandong will have the highest ESV under EC scenario. (3) The funds will reach lowest under EC scenario, at 13.35 billion CNY, while reach highest under CC scenario, at 13.58 billion CNY. (4) In any scenario, Qinghai and Gansu province will get the highest PES funds among nine provinces, and financial investment in the Qinghai Province needs to be increased. Based on our results, it is recommended to foster the exploration of horizontal compensation between the downstream provinces of Henan and Shandong, and the upstream provinces of Qinghai, Sichuan, and Gansu, in order to enhance the protection of the eco-environment. The findings can provide scientific guidance for improvement of the PES funds allocation in the YRB, and methodological references for other river basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration is an important implement to avoid land degradation and improve the sustainability of ecosystems. As a spatial definition of ecological restoration, ecological restoration space (ERS) is recognized to have a positive impact on the environment. However, its spatiotemporal pattern and magnitude of contribution to ecosystem services (ESs) remain uncertain. In this study, an ecological restoration trajectories model was developed to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern and evolution of ERS. The InVEST model and geographically weighted regression were used to evaluate the dynamic relationship between ERS and crucial ESs. Results demonstrated that from 1990 to 2015, the cumulative area of ERS in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) was 184,197.05 km2, with Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi having the largest distribution. The change in geographical center of three subcategories, forest restoration space (FRS), grassland restoration space (GRS), and shrub restoration space (SRS), showed a pronounced geographical migration. Meanwhile, the distribution of ERS significantly improved the conditions of habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), and soil conservation (SC) on 75.48%, 71.86%, and 56.75% of the grids, respectively. This study provides a scientific foundation for the ecosystem conservation and land management of the YRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River basin (YRB) plays an important role in China's economic and social growth. Based on different dimensions, we adopted the radial basis function (RBF) neural network model and the obstacle degree model to examine the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) of the YRB. From 2005 to 2020, the WRCC of the entire YRB, as well as the upstream and midstream regions, improved, but the WRCC of the downstream region remained poor, revealing spatial differences. The overall improvement in the WRCC of the Yellow River's nine provinces is good, but the WRCC of Inner Mongolia and Henan is poor, suggesting regional differences. From the standpoint of obstacle factors, the development and usage rate of surface water resources are the main challenges. In 2020, the obstacle degree of the YRB reached 87.4871%. The irrigated area rate in Gansu was the primary obstacle factor, and the obstacle degree reached 73.0238%. Qinghai's industrial aspects mostly hindered the improvement of its WRCC, with an obstacle degree of 31.36%. The results provide a theoretical reference for the high-quality development of the YRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]