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Abstract: The forest growth model 4C was used to investigate how conversion management of a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand towards a mixed oak–birch stand would affect stand structural development – and hence biodiversity and productivity – in the long term. For this purpose the 4C model was parameterised for natural regeneration of light demanding species and extended for management of multi-layered stands. A series of structural indicators was selected to describe key factors of forest biodiversity at the stand scale. Two consecutive aspects of Scots pine conversion were tested: (1) the choice of conversion strategy between thinning and gap creation and (2) the choice of conversion regime in terms of cutting cycle, thinning type and pine tree retention. Three simulated conversion strategies aim at the gradual removal of the pine canopy but differ in the spatial organisation of pine cuttings and hence result in different light conditions for regeneration. Only the directed gap creation strategy was able to maintain and increase birch admixture to the stand and to approach natural stand structural development. Simulation of 12 conversion regimes for the directed gap creation strategy indicated that thinning type (from above or from below), pine tree retention at final felling (50% of the standing volume or none) and cutting cycle (6, 9 or 12 years) all significantly influence stand structural development. These effects were clearest for oak development. Birch occurred in a few mixed clusters, but tended to disappear when longer cutting cycles were used. Based on a multi-criteria analysis we conclude that the optimal conversion regime – in which both stand productivity and biodiversity objectives can be combined – implies thinning from above, pine tree retention, and cutting cycles of 6 years. The conceptual validity of the model as well as the applicability of the results are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Volume growth and survival (VGS) graphs, which show volume growth rate and risk of mortality for individual trees (or tree size classes), have been proposed as a tool for assessing the validity of models that describe the development over time of tree size distributions within forest stands. We examined the utility of the VGS method in evaluating four process-based models. The performance of the models FORSKA, 4C, MORG, and PipeQual is analyzed against long-term data from a Scots pine stand in Evo, Finland, and the models FORSKA and 4C are also assessed with respect to data from a beech stand in Fabrikschleichach, Germany. Comparison of the measurement-based VGS graphs with those produced from the model-based data shows that although the models yield similar stand-level predictions, they can differ widely in their projections of individual tree growth and size distributions. Examination of the discrepancies between models and data in the context of the VGS graphs reveals several areas in which the models could be improved. We conclude that the method is useful in model evaluation, especially if used in combination with indicators of stand structure, such as the height/diameter ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Summary: Policy changes are often implemented without the assessment of their full environmental impact. We investigate the hydrological effects of changes in forest area triggered by shifts in European agricultural policy, and changes in species composition caused by decisions of regional forest authorities. The scenarios were modelled for the Federal State of Brandenburg (Germany) on a 50m grid scale using the SWIM (Soil Water Integrated Model) model utilising spatially-explicit land-use patterns. The results suggest a negative impact of afforestation on abandoned arable land (9.4% total state area) on the regional water balance, causing an increase in mean annual evapotranspiration of 3.7% at 100% afforestation when compared to no afforestation. The relatively small annual change covers a much more pronounced seasonal effect, leading to an increase in evapotranspiration by 25.1% in spring with a strong feedback to other hydrological components. In contrast, a change in species composition in existing forest (29.2% total state area) from predominantly Scots Pine to Common Oak decreased the evapotranspiration by 3.4%, accompanied by a much weaker but apparent seasonal pattern. The changes show a high spatial heterogeneity that is masked by a linear mean response for the total state area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]