9 results on '"Tuckett, David"'
Search Results
2. Conviction Narrative Theory: A theory of choice under radical uncertainty.
- Author
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Johnson, Samuel G. B., Bilovich, Avri, and Tuckett, David
- Subjects
CHOICE (Psychology) ,SOCIAL perception ,MENTAL representation ,SOCIAL support ,RESEARCH personnel ,CAUSAL models - Abstract
Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty – situations where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives – structured representations of causal, temporal, analogical, and valence relationships – rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative that feels "right" to explain the available data; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We identify 12 propositions to explain how the mental representations (narratives) interact with four inter-related processes (explanation, simulation, affective evaluation, and communication), examining the theoretical and empirical basis for each. We conclude by discussing how CNT can provide a common vocabulary for researchers studying everyday choices across areas of the decision sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Narrative expectations in financial forecasting.
- Author
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Johnson, Samuel G. B. and Tuckett, David
- Subjects
BUSINESS forecasting ,EXPECTANCY theories ,NEOCLASSICAL school of economics ,EXPECTATION (Psychology) ,FUTURES sales & prices - Abstract
How do people form expectations about the future? We use amateur and expert investors' expectations about financial asset prices to study this question. Three experiments contrast the rational expectations assumption from neoclassical economics (investors forecast according to neoclassical financial theory) against two psychological theories of expectation formation—behaviorally informed expectations (investors understand empirical market anomalies and expect these anomalies to occur) and narrative expectations (investors use narrative thinking to predict future prices). Whereas neoclassical financial theory maintains that past public information cannot be used to predict future prices, participants used company performance information revealed before a base price quotation to project future price trends after that quotation (Experiment 1), contradicting rational expectations. Importantly, these projections were stronger when information concerned predictions about a company's future performance rather than actual data about its past performance, suggesting that people not only rely on financially irrelevant (but narratively relevant) information for making predictions but erroneously impose temporal order on that information. These biased predictions had downstream consequences for asset allocation choices (Experiment 2), and these choices were driven in part by affective reactions to the company performance news (Experiment 3). There were some mild effects of expertise, but overall the effects of narrative appear to be consistent across all levels of expertise studied, including professional financial analysts. We conclude by discussing the prospects for a narrative theory of choice that provide new microfoundational insights about economic behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Narratives as a coordinating device for reversing regional disequilibrium.
- Author
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Collier, Paul and Tuckett, David
- Subjects
THEORY of knowledge ,SOCIAL networks ,NARRATIVES ,EXTERNALITIES ,DISCONTENT ,DECISION making - Abstract
Substantial differences in productivity, accompanied by growing social and political discontent, have widened across UK regions in the last 40 years, creating a dysfunctional spatial equilibrium; a coordination failure that has so far proved resistant to change. In this paper, we link such persistent regional disequilibria with current socio-psychological theories about the role of narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty to explore how and why ideas held collectively within a social network can become the coordinating device for a range of decisions within networked communities that have extra-market effects (externalities), analogous to the role that prices play within markets. Drawing on findings from a pilot interview study in two UK regions, we show the potential for local leadership to use well-constructed narratives to coordinate fragmented agents to cooperate on a common purpose and more generally propose a framework to understand how low-income equilibria become stable but might be re-set. In this way we bring new insights into the need for an expanded economic theory of knowledge applicable to expectation and preference formation in conditions of radical uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Narrative in Economics: A New Turn on the Past.
- Author
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Morgan, Mary S. and Stapleford, Thomas A.
- Subjects
HISTORY of economics ,ECONOMIC history ,NARRATIVES - Abstract
Narratives have drawn increasing attention from economists and from historians and philosophers of science. Yet little of that attention has made it into the history of economics itself. This essay reviews some of the salient literature on economic narratives and introduces key themes from a 2021 workshop intended to bring that analysis to bear within the history of economics. Four important, but little noticed, functions of narratives emerging from that workshop are highlighted: exploration, explanation, closure, and reopening; and promising areas for future research on the multiple roles of narrative in the history of economic practice are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Understanding Narratives in Governance: Naming and Framing Regional Inequality in the United Kingdom.
- Author
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Kaiser, Tamás
- Subjects
REGIONAL disparities ,LITERATURE reviews ,PROBLEM solving ,NARRATIVES - Abstract
Narratives play a pivotal role in solving complex problems, as they provide an interpretive framework for facilitating the solution to a given challenge. We presume that if the basis of a narrative applied to a complex problem is incorrect, the interpretation of the problem will also be distorted. Therefore, solutions that are primarily low-efficiency in nature demand new or "rframed" narratives. We examine this premise through the case of the United Kingdom in the light of changes in narratives created to solve regional inequalities, particularly regarding the interpretative framework of the "Levelling Up" policy agenda and narrative, which was introduced by the government of Boris Johnson. Additionally, we conducted a literature review on the Levelling Up policy to provide a supplementary theoretical background beyond the concept of narratives. Conclusions on narratives and Levelling Up are also outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Uncertain Futures: Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculative Technologies.
- Author
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Beckert, Jens and Bronk, Richard
- Subjects
NARRATIVES ,FUTURES ,BEST practices ,DIGITAL storytelling - Abstract
Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2019
8. Die Historizität fiktionaler Erwartungen.
- Author
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Beckert, Jens
- Abstract
Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2017
9. Hayek on the wisdom of prices: a reassessment.
- Author
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BRONK, RICHARD
- Subjects
PRICES ,MARKET value ,STOCK exchanges - Abstract
This paper re-examines Hayek's insights into the problem of knowledge in markets, and argues that his analysis remains pertinent but has serious flaws. His central thesis--that the market price system is essential for communicating information and coordinating transactions wherever knowledge is dispersed and innovation renders the future uncertain--remains a potent explanation for the failures of central economic planning. His analysis that aggregate statistics necessarily abstract from contextual and tacit knowledge has important but widely ignored implications for the contemporary use of statistics in financial risk models. The recent financial crisis, however, shows that market prices can give very misleading signals for long periods, and it represents a key example of ways in which Hayek's thesis is incomplete. In particular, Hayek's analysis falls short by ignoring the role of dominant narratives, analytical monocultures, self-reinforcing emotions, feedback loops, information asymmetries and market power in distorting the wisdom of prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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