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"The aim of this paper is to develop a probability model describing the variation in...total out-migration [using] micro-level data. The parameters involved in the models are estimated with the help of [the] method of moment, proportion of zeroth cell and one'th cell respectively, [and] the suitability of [the] model [is] tested through observed demographic survey data [for India].", (excerpt)

"Several attempts have been made in the past at studying trends in rural-urban migration through the use of probability models.... In this paper, an alternative method (based on maximum likelihood) of estimating the parameters of the inflated geometric distribution is proposed.... Section 2 describes the model. The method of estimating the parameters and the associated variance-covariance matrix is contained in section 3. Section 4 gives an illustrative example. Section 5 contains the conclusion." Data are from a 1978 survey conducted in three types of villages in India., (excerpt)

"In this paper, a set of two probability models have been derived to describe the variation in the length of open birth interval of women having given birth to a child during the last 'T' years of their current reproductive age. The first model is derived by assuming the reproduction process as steady-state, the second is obtained by varying the fecundability parameter involved in the first model after the last birth. These models are applied to the three sets of data, one collected from [the Indian] Varanasi-survey, 1969-70 and the other two generated from the data on age-specific fertility rates using the life table technique. The biological parameters such as fecundability and secondary sterility have been estimated using some simple procedure of estimation.", (excerpt)

"This paper examines the implications of demographic transition...on kinship relationships in India during 1971-1988. Three simulations based on the schedules of fertility and mortality of India during 1971, 1981, and 1988 have been undertaken. The kinship size constitutes parents, grand parents, siblings (brothers and sisters) and children. Improved mortality condition has increased the percentage of kins in ancestor generation. The percentage of kins in ancestor generation was 15 percent in 1988 as compared to 8.5 percent in 1971.... The increase in the percent of kins in ancestor generation and the support ratio obviously shows the aging of the population.", (excerpt)

"The main content of this paper is to model the numbers of single male migrants aged 15 years and above from the households in [a rural village in India. The] author proposes two probability distribution models...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS), (excerpt)

"This paper proposes the use of Weibull Hazard function to obtain [an] improved estimate of person years lived in infant and childhood ages. As the estimation procedure is too involved for those who construct life tables, an easier method of obtaining the same is provided.... An illustrative application of the procedure is also presented." The data used for this illustration are from the Sample Registration System of India., (excerpt)

"This paper provides a probability model for the total out-migration pattern from the rural areas [of India]. The suitability of [the] model [is] tested through observed data.", (excerpt)

"In this paper a numerical method has been developed to project the total population of a geographical region. The method has been applied to the Indian situation. It is found that the total population of India was expected to lie between [836 million and 850 million in 1991 and between 986 million and 1,042 million] in 2001.", (excerpt)

"This study derives some probability models for all closed birth intervals and last closed birth intervals under [the] same set of assumptions. The models have been applied to some observed data taken from [India's] Varanasi Survey (1978). Models considered for analysis are presented in section two of the paper while section three deals with [the] illustration of models.", (excerpt)

"This paper attempts to analyze mortality transition in India during [the] 1970s and 1980s through the modelling of the age pattern of mortality by applying the Heligman-Pollard model mortality schedule. The analysis reveals that mortality transition in India has not been uniform in all the age [or sex] groups....Middle-life mortality has been found to be more or less unchanged during the period under reference. Implications of the age pattern of mortality transition [on] health policy [are also] discussed.", (excerpt)

"The female age at marriage is an important variable in the human reproduction process--especially in traditional societies in which almost all births occur within the marital context. This paper uses the Type I extreme value distribution to describe the female age at marriage pattern of a traditional society in India. A procedure to obtain maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. The model is found to be suitable for estimation of the observed proportion of ever married females, mean, median and model age at marriage.", (excerpt)

"In this paper an attempt is made to describe the probability model of the total number of migrants [at the household level]. The suitability of the model is tested through observed data [for India].", (excerpt)

This paper attempts to gauge the effect of constantly declining fertility on population aging in India through the application of an analytical model proposed by Ansley Coale (1972), which employs stable population theory. The author has assumed a linearly constant fertility decline in India to obtain a net reproduction rate equals 1 by the year 2001. The projected age distribution in 2001 shows that the proportions of males and females aged 65+ will be 3.66% and 3.98% respectively. This means that there would be an increase of 7.3% in the proportion of males (65+) from 1971 to 2001. The corresponding increase for females is more, 17.4%. The median age of males increases from 16.59 to 22.92 years during the same period. For females, the increase is from 16.64 to 22.75 years. Although the proportional increase of the aged is not very substantial, the absolute magnitude it implies is very large. It has far reaching implications in the development process in India.

"In this paper [an] age dependent model [for estimating birth intervals] is constructed which assumes that the women have already crossed the age of maximum fertility at the time of observation. The parameters of the model are assumed to depend upon the parity." This model is based on an earlier age-dependent model by the same authors and was designed to account for late marriage and high parity. The model was applied to information on 203 married, non-contracepting women from a village in Haryana, India, collected in May and June of 1978. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA), (excerpt)

"The present paper aims to find out the influence of birth order and maternal age on sex ratio at birth in Greater Bombay [India] by considering 1.5 million births during the period 1970-78. The relationship sex ratio at birth has [with] birth order and maternal age follows a quadratic model." The percentage variation explained by a linear model is less than that explained by the quadratic model., (excerpt)

"This paper deals with derivation of models to describe the number of births to women during interval (O,T) of length T, when the start of the observation is marriage as well as when it is a distant point after marriage. These models are extensions of the models of Singh, et al., (1973) and of Sheps and Menken (1973) and can suitably be applied to data for short periods of observation as the parameters are assumed to be homogeneous in time. The methods to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters are outlined." The models are applied to data from a sample survey on rural development and population growth carried out by the Demographic Research Centre of Banaras Hindu University in 1978 in order to examine trends in fecundability and sterility by age of women., (excerpt)

This paper discusses some probability models in relation to their application to the distribution of the number of migrants from a household. 2 types of distribution of migrants from a household are described here: 1) male migrants aged 15 and above and 2) total number of migrants including females and children from a household. It is found that the model proposed here fitted the several sets of observed data on the number of migrants satisfactorily well.

This paper develops probability distributions to describe the variations in the number of live birth-conceptions to a female during a given time interval (0, To) of length To. In the derivation, the interval (0, To) is divided into 2 consecutive segments, and fertility parameters within each segment are assumed to be constant but may differ between the segments. A method of obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is outlined. The models are applied to an observed set of data. An application of the models in the evaluation of family planning programs is illustrated.

"The paper provides expressions for the 'maximum likelihood equations' and the asymptotic variances and co-variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters in a Polya-Aeppli distribution provided that we have a knowledge of the number of groups with zero objects...the number of groups with one object...and the total number of groups.... The results are illustrated using an example involving demographic data [for India]." The focus is on the number and types of households., (excerpt)

"This paper attempts to analyse life-time as well as period migration data in India, derived from 1971 census, through conventional techniques as well as by the log-linear modelling." The differences between lifetime and period migration flows are analyzed., (excerpt)

"This paper examines the relationship between marriage and migration distance through a probabilistic model with two parameters. The suitability of the present model is tested with several sets of observed data collected from the rural areas in 1978 in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India; and it is found that the model fits the observed data reasonably well.", (excerpt)