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Aim: To test the association of alcohol consumption with total and cause‐specific mortality risk. Design Prospective observational multi‐centre population‐based study. Setting: Sixteen cohorts (15 from Europe) in the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project. Participants: A total of 142 960 individuals (mean age 50 ± 13 years, 53.9% men). Measurements Average alcohol intake by food frequency questionnaire, total and cause‐specific mortality. Findings In comparison with life‐time abstainers, consumption of alcohol less than 10 g/day was associated with an average 11% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 7–14%] reduction in the risk of total mortality, while intake > 20 g/day was associated with a 13% (95% CI = 7–20%) increase in the risk of total mortality. Comparable findings were observed for cardiovascular (CV) deaths. With regard to cancer, drinking up to 10 g/day was not associated with either mortality risk reduction or increase, while alcohol intake > 20 g/day was associated with a 22% (95% CI = 10–35%) increased risk of mortality. The association of alcohol with fatal outcomes was similar in men and women, differed somewhat between countries and was more apparent in individuals preferring wine, suggesting that benefits may not be due to ethanol but other ingredients. Mediation analysis showed that high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol explained 2.9 and 18.7% of the association between low alcohol intake and total as well as CV mortality, respectively. Conclusions: In comparison with life‐time abstainers, consuming less than one drink per day (nadir at 5 g/day) was associated with a reduced risk of total, cardiovascular and other causes mortality, except cancer. Intake of more than two drinks per day was associated with an increased risk of total, cardiovascular and especially cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cancer studies reported mixed results on benefit finding (BF) and posttraumatic growth (PTG) prevalence and few were focused on long-term survivors.Methods: BF and PTG were assessed in a multi-regional population-based study in Germany with 6952 breast, colorectal and prostate cancer survivors, using the Benefit Finding Scale and Posttraumatic Growth Inventory. We calculated the age-adjusted prevalence, stratified by demographical and clinical characteristics.Results: Overall, 66.0% of cancer survivors indicated moderate-to-high BF, and 20.5% moderate-to-high PTG. Age-adjusted prevalence of BF and PTG differed according to cancer type (breast > colorectal > prostate) and sex (female > male). BF and PTG prevalence were higher in younger than in older respondents; the age-adjusted prevalence was higher in respondents who survived more years after diagnosis. The strength and direction of associations of age-adjusted prevalence with cancer stage, disease recurrence, and time since diagnosis varied according to cancer type and sex.Conclusions: A substantial proportion of long-term cancer survivors reported moderate-to-high BF and PTG. However, the prevalence was lower in older and male cancer survivors, and during the earlier years after cancer diagnosis. Further longitudinal studies on PTG and BF in cancer survivors are warranted to address heterogeneity in survivors' experience after cancer diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence-based guidance for starting ages of screening for first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with prostate cancer (PCa) to prevent stage III/IV or fatal PCa is lacking in current PCa screening guidelines. We aimed to provide evidence for risk-adapted starting age of screening for relatives of patients with PCa.Methods and Findings: In this register-based nationwide cohort study, all men (aged 0 to 96 years at baseline) residing in Sweden who were born after 1931 along with their fathers were included. During the follow-up (1958 to 2015) of 6,343,727 men, 88,999 were diagnosed with stage III/IV PCa or died of PCa. The outcomes were defined as the diagnosis of stage III/IV PCa or death due to PCa, stratified by age at diagnosis. Using 10-year cumulative risk curves, we calculated risk-adapted starting ages of screening for men with different constellations of family history of PCa. The 10-year cumulative risk of stage III/IV or fatal PCa in men at age 50 in the general population (a common recommended starting age of screening) was 0.2%. Men with ≥2 FDRs diagnosed with PCa reached this screening level at age 41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 39 to 44), i.e., 9 years earlier, when the youngest one was diagnosed before age 60; at age 43 (41 to 47), i.e., 7 years earlier, when ≥2 FDRs were diagnosed after age 59, which was similar to that of men with 1 FDR diagnosed before age 60 (41 to 45); and at age 45 (44 to 46), when 1 FDR was diagnosed at age 60 to 69 and 47 (46 to 47), when 1 FDR was diagnosed after age 69. We also calculated risk-adapted starting ages for other benchmark screening ages, such as 45, 55, and 60 years, and compared our findings with those in the guidelines. Study limitations include the lack of genetic data, information on lifestyle, and external validation.Conclusions: Our study provides practical information for risk-tailored starting ages of PCa screening based on nationwide cancer data with valid genealogical information. Our clinically relevant findings could be used for evidence-based personalized PCa screening guidance and supplement current PCa screening guidelines for relatives of patients with PCa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We investigated whether associations between prevalent diabetes and cancer risk are pertinent to older adults and whether associations differ across subgroups of age, body weight status or levels of physical activity.Methods: We harmonised data from seven prospective cohort studies of older individuals in Europe and the United States participating in the CHANCES consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate the associations of prevalent diabetes with cancer risk (all cancers combined, and for colorectum, prostate and breast). We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts using pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis.Results: A total of 667,916 individuals were included with an overall median (P25-P75) age at recruitment of 62.3 (57-67) years. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 114,404 total cancer cases were ascertained. Diabetes was not associated with the risk of all cancers combined (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86-1.04; I2 = 63.3%). Diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk in men (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26; I2 = 0%) and a similar HR in women (1.13; 95% CI: 0.82-1.56; I2 = 46%), but with a confidence interval including the null. Diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.85; I2 = 0%), but not with postmenopausal breast cancer (HR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89-1.03; I2 = 0%). In exploratory subgroup analyses, diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk only in men with overweight or obesity.Conclusions: Prevalent diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk and inversely associated with prostate cancer risk in older Europeans and Americans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Both polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) intake are highly prevailing in older cancer patients. However, only studies on the association of polypharmacy and postoperative complications have been meta-analyzed previously.Methods: A systematic review and a meta-analysis of prospective/retrospective observational studies reporting associations of polypharmacy or PIM with at least one out of five predefined adverse health outcomes in a population of older cancer patients (≥60 years) were carried out. PubMed and Web of Science were used to search for relevant studies published between January 1991 and March 2020. Data were pooled by adopting a random-effects model.Results: Overall, 42 publications were included in the systematic review. Meta-analyses could be performed on 39 studies about polypharmacy and 13 studies about PIM. Polypharmacy was found to be statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality (risk ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.37 [1.25-1.50]), hospitalization (1.53 [1.37-1.71]), treatment-related toxicity (1.22 [1.01-1.47]), and postoperative complications (1.73 [1.36-2.20]). The association of polypharmacy with prolongation of hospitalization was not statistically significant at the p < .05 significance level (1.62 [0.98-2.66]). With respect to PIM, a statistically significant association with all-cause mortality (1.43 [1.08-1.88]) was observed but not with other adverse outcomes.Conclusions: Polypharmacy was found to be associated with several adverse outcomes and PIM use with all-cause mortality in older cancer patients. However, these results should be interpreted with caution because about three-quarters of the studies identified did not adjust for comorbidity and are prone to confounding by indication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cancer-related fatigue represents one major cause of reduced quality of life in cancer patients and can seriously affect the physical, emotional, and cognitive functioning impeding coping with the disease. Options for effective treatment of cancer-related fatigue are limited, consisting only of non-pharmacologic interventions like physical activity, psychosocial, and mind-body interventions. Recent evidence suggests that vitamin D3 supplementation might alleviate cancer-related fatigue. However, confirmation in a randomized controlled trial is needed.Methods: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 456 colorectal cancer (CRC) patients aged 18 years and older are being recruited in three German rehabilitation clinics. Study inclusion requires hospitalization of at least 3 weeks at such a clinic, a diagnosis of non-metastatic CRC (stage I-III), surgical removal of the tumor within the past 9 months, and season-adapted vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency. Eligible patients are randomly assigned to a personalized regimen of vitamin D3 or placebo for 12 weeks. In the intervention group, a loading dose of 20,000 or 40,000 IU vitamin D3 will be administered daily during the first 11 days, followed by a maintenance dose of 2000 IU daily. Patients will complete questionnaires for secondary outcomes (fatigue subdomains, quality of life and subdomains, depression, functional well-being, and infection frequency). Blood and urine samples will be collected for analyses of safety parameters (hypervitaminosis D, hypercalcemia, hypercalciuria, and renal impairment) and efficacy biomarkers (25-hydroxyvitamin D, HbA1c, white blood cell count, leukocyte subtype counts, serum C-reactive protein, uric acid, creatinine, triglycerides, total, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol).Discussion: This trial tests whether a personalized vitamin D3 dosing regimen reduces or prevents fatigue among non-metastatic CRC patients by treating the underlying vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency. If efficacy can be confirmed, personalized vitamin D3 supplementation could be used as a tertiary prevention measure in addition to non-pharmacological treatments of cancer-related fatigue in CRC patients. We expect to detect an effect of vitamin D3 supplementation on secondary outcomes like quality of life, depression, functional well-being, infections, inflammatory biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia.Trial Registration: European Clinical Trials Database: EudraCT-No: 2019-000502-30, January 21, 2019; German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS): DRKS00019907 , April 30, 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Familial breast cancer risk studies usually overlook the dynamic nature of family history.Methods: The authors assessed the effect of incorporating the timing of cancer diagnosis events into the assessment of familial risks of breast cancer in first-degree and second-degree relatives in a nationwide cohort study of 5,099,172 women (follow-up was between 1958-2015). Family history was assessed using 3 approaches: 1) as a static variable (ever having a relative with breast cancer); 2) as accumulative history; and 3) as a dynamic variable (time-dependent variable).Results: For women aged <50 years, familial risk was mostly higher when family history was assessed as a dynamic variable compared with using a static or accumulative family history. For example, the cumulative risk of receiving a breast cancer diagnosis until age 50 years for women with a history of breast cancer in 1 first-degree relative was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.5%-2.7%) using the static method, 2.4% (95% CI, 2.3%-2.4%) using the accumulative method, and 3.1% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.2%) using the dynamic method. Relative risk in women aged <50 years with a breast cancer diagnosis in a sister was 1.40-fold (95% CI, 1.31-fold to 1.48-fold) using the static method, 1.66-fold (95% CI, 1.57-fold to 1.76-fold) using the accumulative method, and 2.28-fold (95% CI, 2.07-fold to 2.51-fold) using the dynamic method.Conclusions: The results of the current study demonstrated that assessing family history as static, accumulative, or dynamic results in different familial risk estimates. The answer as to which method to use for family history assessment depends on the implications of the study, with the dynamic method appearing to be better suited for risk stratification studies, the accumulative method being the most convenient in practice and the least favored for risk prediction, and the static method being suitable for etiological impact and risk attribution studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) have replaced guaiac-based faecal occult blood test (gFOBTs) in several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes. We aimed to evaluate the benefits of this transition based on the Wallonia-Brussels-organised CRC screening programme.Methods: A total of 1,569,868 individuals aged 50-74 years, who were invited to screening during 2009-2017, were studied by linking their screening records with insurance, pathology and cancer data in the Belgian Cancer Registry. We compared neoplasm detection rates and positive predictive values (PPVs) of gFOBT and FIT at 15 µg haemoglobin per gram cut-off in screen-naive individuals. We furthermore examined the incidence rates of interval cancer in gFOBT- and FIT-based screening programme.Results: Advanced neoplasms were detected less frequently by gFOBT (0.8%) than by FIT (1.3%), with a difference of 0.5% (P < 0.01). PPVs were lower for gFOBT (15.1%) than for FIT (21.7%) for advanced neoplasms (difference 6.6%, P < 0.01). Compared to participants with negative gFOBT, those with negative FIT were 77% less likely to develop interval cancer (incidence rate ratio 0.23, 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.33).Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that in an organised CRC screening programme, replacing gFOBT with FIT improved neoplasm detection rate and substantially reduced interval cancer incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: DNA methylation plays a critical role in breast cancer development. Previous studies have identified DNA methylation marks in white blood cells as promising biomarkers for breast cancer. However, these studies were limited by low statistical power and potential biases. Using a new methodology, we investigated DNA methylation marks for their associations with breast cancer risk.Methods: Statistical models were built to predict levels of DNA methylation marks using genetic data and DNA methylation data from HumanMethylation450 BeadChip from the Framingham Heart Study (n = 1595). The prediction models were validated using data from the Women's Health Initiative (n = 883). We applied these models to genomewide association study (GWAS) data of 122 977 breast cancer patients and 105 974 controls to evaluate if the genetically predicted DNA methylation levels at CpG sites (CpGs) are associated with breast cancer risk. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: Of the 62 938 CpG sites CpGs investigated, statistically significant associations with breast cancer risk were observed for 450 CpGs at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P less than 7.94 × 10-7, including 45 CpGs residing in 18 genomic regions, that have not previously been associated with breast cancer risk. Of the remaining 405 CpGs located within 500 kilobase flaking regions of 70 GWAS-identified breast cancer risk variants, the associations for 11 CpGs were independent of GWAS-identified variants. Integrative analyses of genetic, DNA methylation, and gene expression data found that 38 CpGs may affect breast cancer risk through regulating expression of 21 genes.Conclusion: Our new methodology can identify novel DNA methylation biomarkers for breast cancer risk and can be applied to other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Oxidative stress is believed to play an important role in the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes, but the few cohort studies that have assessed the association of oxidative stress biomarkers with type 2 diabetes incidence were small and reported inconclusive results.Research Design and Methods: We examined the associations of urinary oxidized guanine/guanosine (OxGua) levels (a biomarker of DNA/RNA oxidation) and urinary 8-isoprostane levels (a biomarker of lipid peroxidation) with type 2 diabetes incidence in 7,828 individuals initially without diabetes from a population-based German cohort study with 14 years of follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) per 1 SD were obtained using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models.Results: In the total population, weak but statistically significant associations with type 2 diabetes incidence were observed for OxGua levels (HR [95% CI] per 1 SD 1.05 [1.01; 1.09]) and 8-isoprostane levels (1.04 [1.00; 1.09]). Stratified analyses showed that associations of both biomarkers with type 2 diabetes incidence were absent in the youngest age-group (50-59 years) and strongest in the oldest age-group (65-75 years) of the cohort, with HR of OxGua levels 1.14 (1.05; 1.23) per 1 SD and of 8-isoprostane levels 1.22 (1.02; 1.45) per 1 SD.Conclusions: These results from a large cohort study support suggestions that an imbalanced redox system contributes to the development of type 2 diabetes but suggest that this association becomes clinically apparent at older ages only, possibly as a result of reduced cellular repair capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/objectives: The aim of the study was to describe a novel dietary assessment strategy based on two instruments complemented by information from an external population applied to estimate usual food intake in the large-scale multicenter German National Cohort (GNC). As proof of concept, we applied the assessment strategy to data from a pretest study (2012-2013) to assess the feasibility of the novel assessment strategy.Subjects/methods: First, the consumption probability for each individual was modeled using three 24 h food lists (24h-FLs) and frequencies from one food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Second, daily consumed food amounts were estimated from the representative German National Nutrition Survey II (NVS II) taking the characteristics of the participants into account. Usual food intake was estimated using the product of consumption probability and amounts.Results: We estimated usual intake of 41 food groups in 318 men and 377 women. The participation proportion was 100, 84.4, and 68.5% for the first, second, and third 24h-FL, respectively. We observed no associations between the probability of participating and lifestyle factors. The estimated distributions of usual food intakes were plausible and total energy was estimated to be 2707 kcal/day for men and 2103 kcal/day for women. The estimated consumption frequencies did not differ substantially between men and women with only few exceptions. The differences in energy intake between men and women were mostly due to differences in estimated daily amounts.Conclusions: The combination of repeated 24h-FLs, a FFQ, and consumption-day amounts from a reference population represents a user-friendly dietary assessment approach having generated plausible, but not yet validated, food intake values in the pretest study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic inflammation is a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) is also moderately associated with CRC risk. However, observational studies are susceptible to unmeasured confounding or reverse causality. Using genetic risk variants as instrumental variables, we investigated the causal relationship between genetically elevated CRP concentration and CRC risk, using a Mendelian randomization approach.Methods: Individual-level data from 30 480 CRC cases and 22 844 controls from 33 participating studies in three international consortia were used: the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study (CORECT) and the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR). As instrumental variables, we included 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with CRP concentration. The SNP-CRC associations were estimated using a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, principal components and genotyping phases. An inverse-variance weighted method was applied to estimate the causal effect of CRP on CRC risk.Results: Among the 19 CRP-associated SNPs, rs1260326 and rs6734238 were significantly associated with CRC risk (P = 7.5 × 10-4, and P = 0.003, respectively). A genetically predicted one-unit increase in the log-transformed CRP concentrations (mg/l) was not associated with increased risk of CRC [odds ratio (OR) = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97, 1.12; P = 0.256). No evidence of association was observed in subgroup analyses stratified by other risk factors.Conclusions: In spite of adequate statistical power to detect moderate association, we found genetically elevated CRP concentration was not associated with increased risk of CRC among individuals of European ancestry. Our findings suggested that circulating CRP is unlikely to be a causal factor in CRC development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: Fecal immunochemical tests for hemoglobin are widely used for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Observational studies suggested that sensitivity of fecal immunochemical tests for detecting advanced neoplasms could be increased by acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin), especially among men.Objective: To evaluate the potential to increase sensitivity of fecal immunochemical tests by administering a single 300-mg oral aspirin dose 2 days before stool sampling.Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial was conducted in 14 gastroenterology practices and 4 hospitals in Germany, and included 2422 men and women aged 40 to 80 years scheduled for colonoscopy, with no recent use of aspirin or other drugs with antithrombotic effects (enrollment from June 2013 to November 2016, and final follow-up January 27, 2017).Interventions: Administration of a single tablet containing 300 mg of aspirin (n = 1208) or placebo (n = 1214) 2 days before fecal sampling for fecal immunochemical test.Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was sensitivity of a quantitative fecal immunochemical test at 2 predefined cutoffs (10.2 and 17-μg Hb/g stool) for detecting advanced neoplasms (colorectal cancer or advanced adenoma).Results: Among 2422 randomized patients (mean [SD] age, 59.6 [7.9] years; 1219, 50%, men), 2134 were included in the analysis (78% for primary screening colonoscopy, 22% for diagnostic colonoscopy). Advanced neoplasms were identified in 224 participants (10.5%), including 8 participants (0.4%) with CRC and 216 participants (10.1%) with advanced adenoma. Sensitivity was 40.2% in the aspirin group and 30.4% in the placebo group (difference 9.8%, 95% CI, -3.1% to 22.2%, P = .14) at cutoff 10.2-μg Hb/g stool and 28.6% in the aspirin and 22.5% in the placebo group (difference 6.0%, 95% CI, -5.7% to 17.5%, P = .32) at cutoff 17-μg Hb/g stool.Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults aged 40 to 80 years not using aspirin or other antithrombotic medications, administration of a single dose of oral aspirin prior to fecal immunochemical testing, compared with placebo, did not significantly increase test sensitivity for detecting advanced colorectal neoplasms at 2 predefined cutoffs of a quantitative fecal immunochemical test.Trial registration: Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien Identifier: DRKS00003252; EudraCT Identifier: 2011-005603-32/DE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ᅟ: Immunochemical fecal occult blood tests (iFOBTs) are increasingly used for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. In our preceding observational study, sensitivity for detecting advanced colorectal neoplasms by iFOBT was 70.8% among users of low-dose acetylsalicylic acid compared with 35.9% among non-users (p = 0.001), whereas there were only very small differences in specificity. In receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses, the area under the curve (AUC) was much higher for acetylsalicylic acid users than for non-users, with particularly strong differences in men (0.87 versus 0.68, p = 0.003). These findings suggested that use of acetylsalicylic acid before conduct of iFOBT might be a promising approach to improve non-invasive screening for CRC.Methods/design: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, the diagnostic performance of two iFOBTs for detecting advanced colorectal neoplasms after a single low-dose of acetylsalicylic acid (300 mg) compared to placebo is evaluated. Acetylsalicylic acid or placebo is administered at least 5 days before a planned, study-independent colonoscopic screening in 2400 participants aged 40 to 80 years. Stool samples are obtained before and on three different days after the single dose of acetylsalicylic acid or placebo. In addition, optional blood samples are taken for future biomarker analyses. The diagnostic performance of the iFOBTs will be compared to the results of the colonoscopy as a gold standard for the diagnosis of colorectal neoplasms. Additionally, gender-specific performance of the tests and gain in diagnostic performance by test application on multiple days will be evaluated.Discussion: If the findings from our preceding observational study will be confirmed in this large trial, the proposed low-risk, inexpensive intervention would considerably improve the diagnostic accuracy of iFOBTs and thus lead to enhanced early detection of colorectal neoplasms. Thus, the results of this trial may have a large public health impact.Trial Registration: This trial was registered before recruitment of the participants in www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu on the 30th of May 2012: EudraCT No.: 2011-005603-32 and in www.drks.de on 13th of March 2012: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS-ID: DRKS00003252 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence of an inverse association between serum vitamin D and mortality from epidemiological studies has prompted efforts to reduce mortality by vitamin D supplementation, either in targeted interventions for people with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency, or in untargeted interventions regardless of baseline vitamin D status.Objective: We aimed to assess the expected impact of the 2 different approaches on effect sizes and power of intervention studies.Methods: Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] were measured in 9579 participants aged 50-75 y in the German Epidemiologische Studie zu Chancen der Verhütung, Früherkennung und optimierten Therapie chronischer Erkrankungen in der älteren Bevölkerung (ESTHER) study who were followed for mortality for a median of 12.4 y. We estimated adjusted HRs of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer for defined increases in serum 25(OH)D by Cox regression, both across the full range of 25(OH)D concentrations and for those with vitamin D insufficiency [30 nmol/L ≤ 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L] or deficiency [25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] only, and we calculated the power of intervention studies achieving those effect sizes.Results: An inverse association between serum 25(OH)D and mortality was observed only for participants with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency and was strongest for the latter. Accordingly, the expected effects were much stronger and the expected power was much higher for interventions that targeted these groups than for untargeted interventions. For example, a targeted intervention study with 10,000 older adults (age 50-75 y) with serum 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L that increases serum 25(OH)D concentrations by 20 nmol/L in the intervention group (n = 5000) would be expected to yield a 26% reduction of all-cause mortality that could be detected with 89% power within 5 y of follow-up compared with a 10% mortality reduction and 20% power in an untargeted intervention study of the same size.Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation trials aimed at reducing mortality in older adults have much higher power when focused on those with low serum 25(OH)D concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use has been consistently associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in women. Our aim was to use a genome-wide gene-environment interaction analysis to identify genetic modifiers of CRC risk associated with use of MHT.Methods: We included 10 835 postmenopausal women (5419 cases and 5416 controls) from 10 studies. We evaluated use of any MHT, oestrogen-only (E-only) and combined oestrogen-progestogen (E+P) hormone preparations. To test for multiplicative interactions, we applied the empirical Bayes (EB) test as well as the Wald test in conventional case-control logistic regression as primary tests. The Cocktail test was used as secondary test.Results: The EB test identified a significant interaction between rs964293 at 20q13.2/CYP24A1 and E+P (interaction OR (95% CIs)=0.61 (0.52-0.72), P=4.8 × 10(-9)). The secondary analysis also identified this interaction (Cocktail test OR=0.64 (0.52-0.78), P=1.2 × 10(-5) (alpha threshold=3.1 × 10(-4)). The ORs for association between E+P and CRC risk by rs964293 genotype were as follows: C/C, 0.96 (0.61-1.50); A/C, 0.61 (0.39-0.95) and A/A, 0.40 (0.22-0.73), respectively.Conclusions: Our results indicate that rs964293 modifies the association between E+P and CRC risk. The variant is located near CYP24A1, which encodes an enzyme involved in vitamin D metabolism. This novel finding offers additional insight into downstream pathways of CRC etiopathogenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The current organized screening program for colorectal cancer in Germany offers both sexes 5 annual fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) between ages 50 and 54 years, followed by a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 years if all of these FITs were negative. We sought to assess the implications of this approach for key parameters of diagnostic performance.Methods and Findings: Using a multistate Markov model, we estimated the expected detection rates of advanced neoplasms (advanced adenomas and cancers) and number needed to scope (NNS) to detect 1 advanced neoplasm at a first screening colonoscopy conducted at age 55 after 5 preceding negative FITs and compared them with the corresponding estimates for a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 with no preceding FIT testing. In individuals with 5 consecutive negative FITs undergoing screening colonoscopy at age 55, expected colonoscopy detection rate (NNS) was 3.7% (27) and 0.10% (1,021) for any advanced neoplasm and cancer, respectively, in men, and 2.1% (47) and 0.05% (1,880) for any advanced neoplasm and cancer, respectively, in women. These NNS values for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm are approximately 3-fold higher, and the NNS values for detecting 1 cancer are approximately 8-fold higher, than those for a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 without prior FITs. This study is limited by model simplifying assumptions and uncertainties related to input parameters.Conclusions: Screening colonoscopy at age 55 after 5 consecutive negative FITs at ages 50-54, as currently offered in the German cancer early detection program, is expected to have very low positive predictive value. Our results may inform efforts to enhance the design of screening programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PaC) remains extremely lethal worldwide even after resection. PaC resection rates are low, making prognostic studies in resected PaC difficult. This large international population-based study aimed at exploring factors associated with survival in patients with resected TNM stage I-II PaC receiving chemotherapy and at developing and internationally validating a survival-predicting model.Methods: Data of stage I-II PaC patients resected and receiving chemotherapy in 2003-2014 were obtained from the national cancer registries of Belgium, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Norway, and the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 Program. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to investigate the associations of patient and tumor characteristics with overall survival, and analysis was performed in each country respectively without pooling. Prognostic factors remaining after backward selection in SEER-18 were used to build a nomogram, which was subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation using the European datasets.Results: A total of 11,837 resected PaC patients were analyzed, with median survival time of 18-23 months and 3-year survival rates of 21-31%. In the main analysis, patient age, tumor T stage, N stage, and differentiation were associated with survival across most countries, with country-specific association patterns and strengths. However, tumor location was mostly not significantly associated with survival. Resection margin, hospital type, tumor size, positive and harvested lymph node number, lymph node ratio, and comorbidity number were associated with survival in certain countries where the information was available. A median survival time- and 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year survival probability-predictive nomogram incorporating the backward-selected variables in the main analysis was established. It fits each European national cohort similarly well. Calibration curves showed very good agreement between nomogram-prediction and actual observation. The concordance index of the nomogram (0.60) was significantly higher than that of the T and N stage-based model (0.56) for predicting survival.Conclusions: In these large international population-based cohorts, patients with resected PaC receiving chemotherapy have distinct characteristics independently associated with survival, with country-specific patterns and strengths. A robust benchmark population-based survival-predicting model is established and internationally validated. Like previous models predicting survival in resected PaC, our nomogram performs modestly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We evaluated the associations of anthropometric indicators of general obesity (body mass index, BMI), an established risk factor of various cancer, and body fat distribution (waist circumference, WC; hip circumference, HC; and waist-to-hip ratio, WHR), which may better reflect metabolic complications of obesity, with total obesity-related and site-specific (colorectal and postmenopausal breast) cancer incidence.Methods: This is a meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies participating in the CHANCES consortium including 18 668 men and 24 751 women with a mean age of 62 and 63 years, respectively. Harmonised individual participant data from all seven cohorts were analysed separately and alternatively for each anthropometric indicator using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.Results: After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 1656 first-incident obesity-related cancers (defined as postmenopausal female breast, colorectum, lower oesophagus, cardia stomach, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) had occurred in men and women. In the meta-analysis of all studies, associations between indicators of adiposity, per s.d. increment, and risk for all obesity-related cancers combined yielded the following summary hazard ratios: 1.11 (95% CI 1.02-1.21) for BMI, 1.13 (95% CI 1.04-1.23) for WC, 1.09 (95% CI 0.98-1.21) for HC, and 1.15 (95% CI 1.00-1.32) for WHR. Increases in risk for colorectal cancer were 16%, 21%, 15%, and 20%, respectively per s.d. of BMI, WC, HC, and WHR. Effect modification by hormone therapy (HT) use was observed for postmenopausal breast cancer (Pinteraction<0.001), where never HT users showed an ∼20% increased risk per s.d. of BMI, WC, and HC compared to ever users.Conclusions: BMI, WC, HC, and WHR show comparable positive associations with obesity-related cancers combined and with colorectal cancer in older adults. For postmenopausal breast cancer we report evidence for effect modification by HT use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Anxiety in older age is common. In comparison with men, older women experience higher levels of anxiety and show different patterns of co-occurring mental disorders. The aim of this study is to investigate gender-specific biopsychosocial predictors associated with GAD (Generalized Anxiety Disorder) symptoms after a period of three years in the elderly population.Methods: Data were derived from the third (2008-2010) and the fourth follow-up (2011-2014) of the large population-based German ESTHER study. 2254 participants ages 55-85 were included in the study (52.3% female; 47.7% male). Generalized Anxiety Disorder Symptoms were measured using the GAD-7 questionnaire at both follow-ups. Linear regression analyses were performed to predict GAD severity after three years; the analyses were separated by gender and adjusted for demographic variables, biopsychosocial health, cognitive impairment, loneliness, and psychosocial resources.Results: In women, GAD severity after three years (t1) was positively associated with younger age, depression symptoms, loneliness, and GAD severity at t0. In men, GAD severity was positively associated with somatic symptoms as well as with GAD severity at t0. In both genders GAD severity at baseline was the strongest predictor of elevated future anxiety symptoms.Limitations: GAD was examined by the use of questionnaires rather than by personal assessment; underreporting of GAD symptoms is therefore possible.Conclusions: Our study shows that an increase as well as a decrease of GAD severity in older women and men can be predicted by several biopsychosocial variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment.Methods: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.Findings: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced.Interpretation: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies.Funding: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Specific components of the diet such as red and processed meat have been associated with the risk of developing colorectal cancer. However, evidence on the association of dietary patterns with colorectal neoplasms is sparse. The aim of this study was to analyze the association of dietary patterns with prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms among older adults in Germany. A cross-sectional study was conducted among participants of screening colonoscopy in Saarland, Germany, who were enrolled in the KolosSal study (Effektivität der Früherkennungs-Koloskopie: eine Saarland-weite Studie) from 2005 to 2013. Information on diet and lifestyle factors was obtained through questionnaires and colonoscopy results were extracted from physicians' reports. Associations of a priori defined dietary patterns (vegetarian or adapted versions of the Healthy Eating Index [HEI] and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension [DASH] index) with the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasms were assessed by multiple logistic regression analyses with comprehensive adjustment for potential confounders. A total of 14,309 participants were included (1561 with advanced colorectal neoplasms). Healthier eating behavior was associated with lower prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms in a dose-response manner. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) comparing the highest with the lowest categories of adapted HEI and DASH were 0.61 (0.50, 0.76) and 0.70 (0.55, 0.89), respectively. No significant associations were observed for a vegetarian eating pattern (adjusted OR 0.80 (0.55, 1.17)). Healthy dietary patterns, as described by a high HEI or DASH score, but not a vegetarian diet alone, are associated with reduced risk of advanced colorectal neoplasms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]