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[Display omitted] • The trends of surface runoff and flood area changes were different. • Rainfall change is the dominant driver compared with land use change. • There are coupled effects from rainfall and land use changes on both surface runoff and flood area. • The easily flooded areas would experience negative coupled effects under future rainfall and land use conditions. • The areas with inadequate drainage and low elevation variation would be of high probability to suffer flooding issues. Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from "Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections" Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from −40% to 160%, and −40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Landscape Development Intensity index (LDI), which is based on non-renewable energy use and integrates diverse land use activities, was compared to other measures of LU (e.g., %agriculture, %urban) to determine its ability for predicting benthic diatom composition in freshwater marshes of peninsular Florida. In this study, 70 small, isolated herbaceous marshes located along a human disturbance gradient (generally agricultural) throughout peninsular Florida were sampled for benthic diatoms and soil and water physical/chemical parameters (i.e., TP, TKN, pH, specific conductance, etc.). Landscape measures of percent agriculture, percent urban, percent natural, and LDI index values were calculated for a 100 m buffer around each site. The strongest relationships using Mantel's r statistic, which ranges from −1 to 1, were found between benthic diatom composition, the combined soil and water variables, and LDI scores ( r=0.51, P<0.0001). Although similar, soil and water variables alone ( r=0.45, P<0.0001) or with percent agriculture or percent natural were not as strongly correlated (both Mantel's r=0.46, P<0.0001). Little urban land use was found in the areas surrounding the study wetlands. Diatom data were clustered using flexible beta into 2 groups, and stepwise discriminant analysis identified specific conductance, followed by LDI score, soil pH, water total phosphorus, and ammonia, as cluster-separating variables. The LDI explained slightly more of the variation in species composition than either percent agriculture or percent natural, perhaps because the LDI can combine disparate land uses into a single quantitative value. However, the ecological significance of the difference between land use metrics and diatom composition is controvertible, and additional tests including more varied land uses appear warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]