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There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Three Odontaspis ferox (confirmed by mtDNA barcoding) were found in the English Channel and Celtic Sea in 2023 at Lepe, UK (50.7846, −1.3508), Kilmore Quay, Ireland (52.1714, −6.5937), and Lyme Bay, UK (50.6448, −2.9302). These are the first records of O. ferox in either country, and extend the species' range by over three degrees of latitude, to >52° N. They were ~275 (female), 433 (female), and 293 cm (male) total length, respectively. These continue a series of new records, possibly indicative of a climate change−induced shift in the species' range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is predicted to have profound consequences for marine ecosystems. Due to the growing political and social drive to address its impacts, monitoring and mitigating climate change is a priority in marine policy in the UK. Cetaceans have been proposed as informative sentinel species for monitoring ocean health. Here, strandings data from four UK cetacean species were assessed for their use as a tool to aid policy makers monitoring climate change in marine environments. Data on stranded cetaceans were collected from 1990 to 2018 and differences in the proportions of stranded cold water adapted and warm water adapted species assessed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM), with 6-year periods and four regions of the UK included as explanatory variables. This modelling approach showed an increase in the proportion of stranded warm water adapted species over time across the UK and that differences in proportion of strandings between cold water and warm water adapted species can be detected between regions and 6-year periods, chosen as metrics to coordinate with reporting cycles for policy assessment needs. As such, these results show the potential for utilising strandings data to identify changing oceanic trends at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales for policy reporting in the UK. However, development of these analyses with a more detailed examination of these data at a finer resolution, incorporating other data sources, such as distribution trends and dietary stable isotope data, may be required before it is applicable as an indicator for trends in changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]