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Major ice jams that occasionally form in lower Peace River generate extensive flooding, which helps replenish the perched basins of Peace-Athabasca Delta, a Ramsar wetland of international importance and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This complex and dynamic ecosystem has experienced prolonged dry periods since the late 1960s, coincident with the construction of the W.A.C. Bennett hydroelectric dam in British Columbia. Physically-based and paleolimnological studies differ with respect to the impact of regulation on flood frequency. This issue is examined herein, based entirely on the historical record of observed ice-jam flood events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to large populations of waterfowl, muskrat, beaver, and free-ranging wood bison. Following construction of the Bennett Dam in the late 1960s, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the PAD region. Past studies have shown that both regulation and climate have contributed to the drying trend, via increased freezeup levels and reduced breakup flows, respectively. However, it has not so far been possible to assess the relative impacts of these two factors. This question is addressed herein by developing quantitative relationships based on the concept of conditional probability. The new methodology is first tested against observed frequencies of ice-jam floods both before and after regulation; it is subsequently applied to quantify the effects of climate and of regulation on the post-regulation reduction in ice-jam flood frequency. The results indicate that both factors have contributed significantly to the drying of the PAD, with regulation having had the more pronounced effect. Complications that may arise from secondary effects of regulation on breakup flows or of climate on freezeup levels are discussed and quantified. It is shown that such effects do not alter the overall conclusions of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]