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Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO 2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO 2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO 2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO 2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO 2 . In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO 2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 59–60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country’s electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO 2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Optimal planning of power industry considering carbon mitigation for a long-term future is complex, involving many technical alternatives and infinite possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissions. Previously the authors built a multi-period superstructure optimization planning model of China''s power sector, gaining the optimal pathway of China''s power sector with fixed parametric input during 2010–2050. With that model, this paper attempted to optimize pathway of China''s power sector under uncertainty, in which the most influential parameters were uncertain. A levelized optimal pathway of China''s power sector was gained, reliability of which was verified by comparing it with optimal results for the stochastic samples. The levelized optimal pathway showed that in the presence of carbon tax, carbon emissions of the power sector were reduced significantly by developing low-carbon technologies including nuclear power, renewables, as well as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and CCS would be key to reduce carbon emissions from coal power. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A great challenge China''s power sector faces is to mitigate its carbon dioxide emissions while satisfying the ever-increasing power demand. Optimal planning of the power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation for a long-term future remains a complex task, involving many technical alternatives and an infinite number of possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissioning over the planning horizon. This paper presents a multi-period modelling and optimization framework for the optimal planning of China''s power sector between 2010 and 2050. The planning horizon is divided into several time intervals, over which power plants of all types can be installed, retrofitted, or closed. Impacts of carbon mitigation related measures, including carbon cap and price, application of carbon capture and sequestration, are explicitly represented. A case study follows, based on real-life data of existing capacity of China''s power sector in 2009, and a year-by-year development plan for China''s power sector is proposed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]