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To guide the adjustment of the electricity policies of the 13th Five-year Plan and the present market-oriented reforms, this paper performs a scenario analysis of the CO 2 emissions from China's electric power industry. By using a logarithmic linear equation to explain the relationship between CO 2 emissions and their influence factors, a hybrid model to forecast the “natural” development of the explanatory variables, and emission-relative data from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the equation parameters, five scenarios are designed, and the CO 2 emissions of each scenario are forecasted for the period of 2016–2030. On the basis of the modeling results, the sensitivity and contribution of each variable are also measured. Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions. (1) The electric power industry of China cannot easily reach its CO 2 emission peak before 2030. This will impose considerable pressure on the Chinese government to realize its emission mitigation target. (2) Compared with the non-fossil energy share in electricity generation, the CO 2 emissions from China's electric power industry are more sensitive to the changes in total electricity consumption and thermal power generation efficiency. (3) The increase in total electricity consumption is the single most important contributor to CO 2 emission growth from the electric power industry of China. (4) To mitigate future CO 2 emissions from the electric power industry, the Chinese government should optimize the industrial export structure and enhance its awareness of the increase in household electricity consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding '2ｰC' limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ｰC falling short of the mark. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the method of decomposition analysis, and briefly discusses how it has been used in relation to patterns of energy consumption. It then uses decomposition analysis to discuss two radically different scenarios of UK energy use through to 2050, both of which result in a 60% reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide. The ratios of the decomposition analysis are discussed in relation to the social and economic drivers of energy use, and the kinds of changes in these drivers which would be necessary to bring the ratios about. In this way decomposition analysis is shown to be a useful technique both to generate quantitative scenarios of this kind, and to cast light on the socio-economic conditions which they imply. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]