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Comparative extinction risk analysis—which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics—has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion‐specific models and compared it with the typical criterion‐blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion‐specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion‐blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria‐specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re‐evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long‐standing research‐implementation gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Red List Index (RLI) measures change in the aggregate extinction risk of species. It is a key indicator for tracking progress toward nine of the Aichi and many proposed post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework Targets. Here, we consider two formulations of the RLI used for reporting biodiversity trends at national scales. Disaggregated global RLIs measure changing national contributions to global extinction risk and are currently based on five taxonomic groups, while national RLIs measure changing national extinction risk and are based on taxonomic groups assessed multiple times in country. For 74% of nations, the disaggregated global RLI is currently based on three or fewer taxonomic groups. Meanwhile, national RLIs from selected pilot countries Finland, South Africa, and Brazil are computed from twelve, eight, and nine taxonomic groups, respectively. The national RLI and the disaggregated global RLI measure different aspects of biodiversity, in that the former detects national trends in populations of species for which each country is responsible while the latter provides standardized comparisons of nations' contributions to the global extinction risk of the same species groups. As governments commit to the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we encourage them to monitor a standard set of taxonomic groups representing different biomes using both RLI formulations to ensure effective target tracking and accurate feedback on their conservation investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The world's islands support disproportionate levels of endemic avian biodiversity despite suffering numerous extinctions. While intensive recent research has focused on island bird conservation or extinction, few global syntheses have considered these factors together from the perspective of morphological trait diversity. Here, we provide a global summary of the status and ecology of extant and extinct island birds, the threats they face and the implications of species loss for island functional diversity. Location: Global. Taxon: Birds. Methods: We provide a review of the literature on threatened and extinct island birds, with a particular focus on global studies that have incorporated functional diversity. Alongside this, we analyse IUCN Red List data in relation to distribution, threats and taxonomy. Using null models and functional hypervolumes, in combination with morphological trait data, we assess the functional diversity represented by threatened and extinct island endemic birds. Results and main conclusions: We find that almost half of all island endemic birds extant in 1500 CE are currently either extinct or threatened with extinction, with the majority of threatened extant species having declining population trends. We also found evidence of 66 island endemic subspecies extinctions. The primary threats to extant island endemic birds currently are agriculture, biological resource use, and invasive species. While there is overlap between the hotspots of threatened and extinct island endemics birds, there are some notable differences, including the Philippines and Indonesia, which support a substantial number of threatened species but have no recorded post‐1500 CE bird extinctions. Traits associated with threatened island endemic birds are large body mass, flightlessness, aquatic predator, omnivorous and vertivorous trophic niches, marine habitat affinity, and, paradoxically, higher dispersal ability. Critically, we find that threatened endemics (i) occupy distinct areas of beak morphospace, and (ii) represent substantial unique areas of the overall functional space of island endemics. We caution that the loss of threatened species may have severe effects on the ecological functions birds provide on islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How a particular threat influences extinction risk may depend on biological traits. Empirical studies relating threats and traits are needed, but data are scarce, making simulations useful. We implemented an eco-evolutionary model to analyse how five threat types influence the extinction risk of virtual organisms differing in body size, maturity age, fecundity, and dispersal ability. The model consisted of observing the evolutionary shift in the mean trait values of an assemblage of organisms when a threat was added into the virtual world where they lived. If a positive shift was found in trait values, we considered that the threat negatively influenced organisms with lower values for that trait. Direct killing mostly affected organisms with slow life cycles (slower-living) and poorly dispersive organisms. Habitat loss caused a reduction in the average dispersal ability of organisms. Habitat fragmentation caused an increase of average dispersal ability, and had a negative effect on larger, less fecund organisms. Habitat degradation and the introduction of invasive competitors had similar effects, mostly affecting large and fast-living organisms, with habitat degradation also affecting highly fecund and poorly dispersive organisms. These results agree with previous empirical studies in which larger, slower-lived, and less fecund organisms are more vulnerable to a greater range of threats. On the other hand, our results challenge two commonly seen hypotheses in the literature: that organisms with high dispersal ability fare well under any high habitat loss scenarios, and that fast-living, highly fecund organisms always do well during environmental change. Our study shows that highly dispersive organisms may be the losers when habitat loss removes large continuous areas of habitat, and fast-living and highly reproductive organisms may be the losers when resources or energy availability dwindle to very low levels. Most importantly, our study underpins the importance of considering the type of threat when analysing the relation between traits and extinction. Even in simple scenarios such as the ones modelled here, different threats lead to different, sometimes opposite, extinction probabilities according to the biological traits of organisms. • New agent-based model to analyse the selectivity of extinction on biological traits. • Larger and slower-lived organisms more vulnerable to a wider range of threats. • Highly dispersive organisms unfavoured when continuous areas of habitat are removed. • Fast-living and highly reproductive organisms unfavoured when resources dwindle. • The type of threat must be considered when studying the selectivity of extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The IUCN Red List is the most useful list of species that are at risk for extinction worldwide, as it relies on a number of objective criteria. Nevertheless, there is a taxonomic bias that excludes species with small body sizes, narrow distribution ranges and low dispersal abilities, which constitute the vast majority of the planet’s biota, particularly local endemics. By evaluating each IUCN criterion separately, we (i) identify the shortcomings for invertebrate applications, (ii) explain how risk categories may be wrongly applied due to inapplicable and/or misleading thresholds, (iii) suggest alternative ways of applying the existing criteria in a more realistic way and (iv) suggest possible new criteria that were not considered in the current evaluation framework but that could allow a more comprehensive and effective assessment of invertebrates. By adapting the criteria to rely more explicitly on the Area of Occupancy and the Extent of Occurrence, their respective trends and by using ecological modelling methods, the criteria’s applicability would be increased. The change in some thresholds or, eventually, the creation of sub-categories would further increase their adequacy. Additionally, co-extinction could be introduced as an explicit part of the classification process. As a case study, we evaluated 48 species of Azorean arthropods and Iberian spiders according to the current criteria. More than one-quarter (27%) of all evaluated species were classified as Critically Endangered, 19% as Endangered, 6% as Vulnerable and 8% as Least Concern. The remaining 40% did not have enough data to reach a classification. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Species differ in their biological susceptibility to extinction, but the set of traits determining susceptibility varies across taxa. It is yet unclear which patterns are common to all taxa, and which are taxon-specific, with consequences to conservation practice. In this study we analysed the generality of trait-based prediction of extinction risk across terrestrial (including freshwater) vertebrates, invertebrates and plants at a global scale. For each group, we selected five representative taxa and within each group we explored whether risk can be related to any of 10 potential predictors. We then synthesized outcomes across taxa using a meta-analytic approach. High habitat specificity was a consistent predictor across vertebrates, invertebrates and plants, being a universal predictor of risk. Slow life-history traits – large relative offspring size, low fecundity, long generation length –, and narrow altitudinal range were also found to be good predictors across most taxa, but their universality needs to be supported with additional data. Poor dispersal ability was a common predictor of extinction risk among invertebrate and plant taxa, but not consistently among vertebrates. The remaining traits (body size, microhabitat verticality, trophic level, and diet breadth) were useful to predict extinction risk but only at lower taxonomical levels. Our study shows that despite the idiosyncrasies among taxa, universal susceptibility to extinction exists and several traits might influence extinction risk for most taxa. Informing conservation prioritization at lower taxonomic scales should however include taxon-specific trait-based predictors of extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]