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If the modern climate trend continues for an additional 20–40 years, forests along the southern border of Canadian taiga may shift into new ranges of annual temperature and precipitation that are similar to the modern climate of central New York State, United States. Here we investigate the possible future response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) to a warmer climate by studying trees planted 90 years ago near the southern limit of their climate tolerance in central New York, 300 km south of the boreal forest where this species is prevalent. We employed high-frequency recording dendrometers to determine radial growth phenology of six mature white spruce trees during 2013–2017. The results demonstrate significant reductions in the length of radial growth periods inversely proportional to the number of hot days with air temperature exceeding 30 °C. During years with very hot summers, the start of radial growth began about 3 days earlier than the 2013–2017 average. However, in those same years, the end of radial growth was also about 17 days earlier resulting in a shorter (70 days versus 100 days) radial growth season. Abundant (350–500 mm) summer precipitation, which resulted in soil moisture values of 20%–30%, allowed us to dismiss drought as a factor. Instead, a likely cause of reduced radial growth was mean temperature that exceeded optimal growth ranges, exacerbated by temperature extremes in ranges that lead to photoinhibition. The latter case was evident in the two warmest growing seasons (2013 and 2017), marked by extended periods of high daytime temperature (>30 °C) followed by early cessation of radial growth independent of seasonal precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• May minimum temperature is the primary driver of budburst in boreal conifers. • P. mariana showed the highest response to warmer springs and P. glauca the lowest. • Precipitation's effect on budburst is limited when compared to temperature. • Changes in bud phenology may disrupt host-insect interactions. • Budburst timing correlates with latitude and ecological provinces. Budburst is a pivotal event in plant life, representing a crucial response to seasonal meteorological shifts. Boreal tree species exhibit species-specific phenologies, and the rate of phenological changes under warming conditions may differ among these species. In this study we aim to investigate the timing of budburst in three coniferous species [Balsam fir (Abies balsamea), black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) (Pinaceae)]; identify the main drivers of budburst, its rate of advance and the spatiotemporal patterns of budburst in relation to climate across Canada using a time period of 1980–2021. The timing of budburst was observed at 2839 locations stretching from Alberta to Newfoundland. We developed response functions between budburst and climate (air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) and used the strongest correlations to test their effect on budburst using species, time and the ecoclimatic framework of Canadian ecoprovinces. We applied spatially constrained multivariate clustering and identified natural budburst clustering across Canada. We found a baseline difference of 17 days in the budburst of black spruce relative to that of balsam fir and white spruce. Mean minimum temperature of May was negatively correlated with budburst date. Black spruce advanced budburst at a rate of change per degree of temperature (−3.33 days °C−1), twice that of balsam fir and white spruce (−1.53 and −1.27 days °C−1, respectively). Cluster distribution of budburst timing matched well with the distribution of Canadian ecoprovinces. Budburst within the clusters followed clinal patterns in temperature across Canada. Mean minimum temperature in May is the main factor driving budburst in northern tree species. Under a warmer spring, we project an earlier budburst, with black spruce being the species expected to show the greatest rate of change. The identified clustering patterns did not vary with precipitation, which represents the primary longitudinal gradient across Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming-driven early leaf-out is expected to increase forest productivity but concurrently increases leaf exposure to spring frosts, which could reduce forests' net productivity. We hypothesized that due to their damaging effect on buds, spring frosts exert a stronger control on bud phenology than do growing degree-days. We monitored bud flush phenology of three white spruce seed sources (one local seed source from the boreal mixedwood forest and two seed sources from the temperate forest), one black spruce seed source originating from the boreal mixedwood forest and four nonlocal Norway spruce seed sources in 2016 and 2017 in two plantations located on both sides of the temperate-boreal mixedwood forest ecotone in eastern Canada (Quebec). We aimed to determine inter- and intraspecies variations in bud break timing and sensitivity to air temperature and photoperiod. We expected that bud break timing for boreal species and seed sources would be better synchronized with the decrease in frost probability than for nonlocal species and seed sources. We used mixed binomial regressions and AICc model selection to determine the best environmental variables predicting each transition from one stage of bud phenology to the next. At both plantation sites, white spruce bud flush began and ended earlier compared to black and Norway spruce. Buds of all spruce species were sensitive to frost probability for early phenological stages, whereas growing degree-days controlled the remaining stages. Photoperiod sensitivity was higher for white spruce compared to black and Norway spruce and reached its maximum in the temperate forest. At intraspecies level, the two southern white spruce seed sources opened their buds earlier than the local source and were more sensitive to photoperiod, which increased their exposure to spring frosts. Onset of spruce bud flush is driven by spring frosts and photoperiod, but once started, bud phenology responds to temperature. The high photoperiod sensitivity in white spruces could counterbalance climate warming and limit future premature leaf-out, whereas the low photoperiod sensitivity in black spruce should not restrain leaf-out advancement with climate warming. Our results call for adapting the temperature-driven hypotheses of ecophysiological models predicting leaf-out to include spring frost probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid 1970s, Interior Alaska white spruce trees experienced markedly lower growth than during the 19th and early 20th centuries. This observation raises the question of forest persistence on certain sites of lowland central and eastern Alaska. We analyzed white spruce growth across a 36-site network (540 trees) on three major river floodplains in boreal Alaska along a longitudinal gradient from eastern Interior to the southwest tree limit to test for the presence of tree growth patterns and climate sensitivities. Chronologies are compared for temperature sensitivity at both stand and individual tree levels, using data from Bethel, McGrath, and Fairbanks NWS stations during the common period of 1952–2001. Cross-dated stand-level ring width chronologies indicate three regions of common signal in tree growth across the gradient. Temperature sensitivity of stand- and individual-tree chronologies is spatially coherent. Most downriver chronologies correlate positively with spring mean monthly temperatures (MMT) at Bethel, mid- and upriver chronologies correlate negatively with MMT of May and previous year July at either McGrath or Fairbanks, and an area in between is a mixed population of positive and negative responders. In downriver positive responders, recent increases from suboptimal cool temperatures accelerated tree growth, while in mid- and upriver negative responders, recent increases from optimal or above-optimal temperatures decreased growth. Fairbanks negative responders are also negatively correlated with a 200-yr index of recorded and reconstructed Fairbanks summer temperatures, and recent sustained record high summer temperatures are associated with the lowest relative growth. Until the 1940s, absolute growth rate of negative responders was greater than positive responders, but from the 1970s the positive responders grew more. These results explain why northern ring width samples can display opposite temperature sensitivity and contribute to understanding recent “divergence” or loss of temperature sensitivity in a changing climate. We find that July MMT and annual precipitation at Fairbanks are now outside the limits that previously characterized the North American distribution of white spruce, and are near the reported physiological limits of the species. Our results of the spatial and temporal change of white spruce temperature sensitivity provide strong empirical evidence of previously proposed early stage biome shift in boreal Alaska due to clear climatic causes. Already, western Alaska, previously extending to tree limit, has become the optimum climate region for the species. With modest additional warming widespread tree death will be unavoidable on warmer lowland interior sites, where persistence of white spruce is unlikely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We present a reconstruction of June–July minimum temperatures since AD1245 for the Mackenzie Delta region based on a 29-site network of white spruce (Picea glauca) ring-width series. Most but not all trees experienced a divergent temperature–growth response, similar to the divergence that has affected other white spruce trees across Yukon and Alaska. However, divergence in the study region began as early as AD1900 and we have documented our methods to avoid including divergent signals in the reconstruction. Calibration/verification testing based on local temperature data, and multi-century coherence with nearby and large-scale temperature proxy records, confirm that our reconstruction is robust. The reconstruction shows cool conditions in the late 13th, early 18th and early 19th centuries, corresponding with solar minima and increased volcanism. These cool periods are interrupted by warm periods consistent with early to mid-20th century warmth. The late 20th century is the warmest interval, and the last decade is estimated to be 1.4°C warmer than any decade before the mid-20th century. The reconstructed climate history corroborates other proxy-based inferences and supports the notion that high-latitude regions such as the Mackenzie Delta have experienced rapid warming in recent decades that is exceptional in the last eight centuries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Density manipulation of overstory aspen provides increased light levels to promote growth of understory spruce, while it may also impact the air and soil temperature. We monitored temperature for three growing seasons in young mixedwood stands of variable density at two boreal locations in Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that partial aspen cover provides frost protection that may be location specific. Mean air temperature was similar or increased slightly across aspen densities during the growing season, while mean soil temperature significantly increased with decreasing overstory cover. The amount of accumulated air and soil heat over the growing season was inversely related to aspen density. The differential impact of density on temperature contributes to variation in growth relationships and may explain regional differences in competition effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees growing near the Arctic treeline have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, recent studies have shown deterioration of historically strong positive correlations between air temperature and tree growth (known as "divergence"). Divergence has important implications for confidence in paleoclimate reconstructions and ecosystem–atmosphere carbon exchange. Studies in the Brooks Range of northern Alaska showed that white spruce in the west increased growth in response to late 20th century warming, whereas those in the east failed to show a growth increase. In an earlier study across four watersheds in the Brooks Range, we tested and rejected the hypothesis that divergence in the easternmost watershed reflects moisture limitation of growth. Here, using 16 sites distributed across the same four watersheds, we tested an alternative hypothesis, that greater nutrient limitation in the east may have impeded positive growth responses to warming. Climate comparison across the four Brooks Range study watersheds revealed that, although the easternmost watershed generally had a drier growing‐season climate, the most consistent difference was that winter air temperature and both winter and summer soil temperatures were much colder in the central and eastern watersheds. Soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and tree growth were all generally lower in the central and eastern than in the western watersheds. Foliar phosphorus concentration was the best predictor of spatial variation in branch extension growth—a finding that is somewhat inconsistent with the theory that forest productivity on young, glacially derived soils should be strongly nitrogen limited. Experimental fertilization yielded the greatest growth increase in the eastern, an intermediate response in the central, and the smallest growth increase in the western watershed, generally mirroring trends in soil temperature, soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and growth of control trees. Our results confirm that growth in the easternmost watershed is more nutrient limited and suggest that phosphorus limitation may be at least as important as nitrogen limitation of growth. We hypothesize that cold soil effects on tree access to nutrients might explain divergence in the eastern Brooks Range and elsewhere near the Arctic treeline, particularly in areas with cold winters and widespread permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]