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This study concerns the management of operational risk in truck transport using the reliability theory of risks. In this regard, the risk analysis of changes in the vehicle unavailability represents an important topic. In this study, the authors present their own method for analysing the phase changes in risk corresponding to successive sections (phases) of vehicle mileage. The presented risk analysis method is based on an integrated assessment of losses associated with the costs of incidental repairs and losses caused by lost income during vehicle downtime. This includes the following: assessment of differences in average risk and differences in the coefficient of variation in the time series of vehicle mileage phases, indicating the outliers and extremes of phase risk, identifying their physical causes and testing the statistical significance of phase risk differences. The proposed method is described mathematically and verified experimentally based on the operational data concerning trucks from two selected brands (20 trucks from each brand). We show that the method can be used to predict the continuity of transport services in the short term (one-year horizon). The method could also be useful to compare vehicles of different brands in the context of their sensitivity to operational risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A proposal was presented to assess the incapacity risk of commercial vehicles performing transport tasks under market conditions. The risk assessment model in the form of cost was used, which is based on the determination of operational efficiency, referring the probable costs of ensuring the reliability of the transport system to the estimated threshold income. It includes costs: incidental repairs, unplanned downtime and resulting from the presumed loss of client's trust. Operational research were carried out on a group of several dozen vehicles, registering their operational states during several years of use. The results of the research confirmed the suitability of the incapacity risk model for predicting potential expenses for guarantee the vehicle's continuity of running in the company and to verify the selection of the vehicle brand and the period of use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]