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We compared three methods for estimating current-year spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) defoliation from 2014 to 2021 using a network of 99 permanent sample plots in central Gaspé Peninsula, Québec. Percent current-year defoliation was measured by assessing shoots from mid-crown branches, ocular ratings of all individual trees using binoculars, and provincial government aerial surveys. Ocular survey defoliation differed from branch sample defoliation in 5–6 out of 7 years, consistently underestimating defoliation, across the full range of defoliation severity observed. Nested mixed-effect models for fir–spruce combined, balsam fir, white spruce, and black spruce ocular survey defoliation bias resulted in marginal R2 of 0.40, 0.47, 0.82, and 0.86, respectively. Current defoliation severity and its interaction with previous year defoliation and weather conditions significantly affected ocular survey bias. Correspondence of aerial survey estimates and mean plot defoliation occurred in only 43% of all plot-years and ranged from 14%–58% in individual years. Differences between aerial survey defoliation and plot values mainly resulted from assigning an adjacent class (e.g., light <30% assigned as moderate 31%–70% defoliation) or misplaced defoliation polygon boundaries, suggesting that assignment of aerial survey defoliation to plots or specific ground areas needs ground truth sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research compares the capabilities of various Sentinel-2-derived spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) in particular red-edge SVIs to detect and classify spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) (SBW) defoliation using Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) models. The results showed the superiority of RF in model building for defoliation detection and classification into three classes (nil, light, and moderate) with overall errors of 17% and 32%, respectively. The most important variables for the best model were Enhanced Vegetation Index 7 (EVI7), Modified Chlorophyll Absorption in Reflectance Index (MCARI), Inverted Red-Edge Chlorophyll Index (IRECI), Normalized Difference Infrared Index 11 (NDII11) and Modified Simple Ratio (MSR). Red-edge SVIs were more effective variables for light defoliation detection compared to traditional SVIs such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and EVI8. These findings can help improve current remote sensing-based SBW defoliation detection and monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defoliation level and site type are thought to influence tree response during spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) outbreaks. We determined the effects of four manual defoliation treatments (0%, 50%, 100%, and 100% + bud removal of current foliage) for 3 years on foliage production of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.), and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) trees on four site-quality classes. After 3 years of defoliation and 2 years of recovery, foliage biomass was reduced by 34%–98%. During defoliation, the number of shoots generally increased and shoot length of spruce generally decreased, especially on rich sites. During recovery, the number of shoots increased substantially, shoot length decreased, and bud destruction reduced the number of shoots by about 50% compared with that of trees that received the 100% defoliation treatment. Defoliation did not substantially affect needle length. Trees on rich sites had two- to fourfold greater foliage production than trees on poor sites. Effects of site and defoliation differed among species, but site quality, especially nutrition, played an important role in production of shoots and needles and the tree's ability to withstand defoliation. Black spruce had more limited ability to recover foliage biomass, only producing more shoots, whereas balsam fir and white spruce had stronger ability to recover needle and shoot length, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We studied effects of defoliation, canopy openness, and competition on fir regeneration. • Plots represented a fir-hardwood gradient in two regions undergoing spruce budworm outbreaks. • Defoliation effects on height increment increased with height. • Height increment declined with defoliation, which was higher in larger height classes. • There were several significant interactions of the variables in reducing height increment. Abstract Height increment of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) regeneration during a spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreak can be affected by a variety of variables including defoliation, ground vegetation competition, canopy openness, the height of regeneration, and stand type. To disentangle how these variables interact to determine regeneration height increment, we sampled 36 plots in two regions showing contrasting climate, regional vegetation, and budworm outbreak severity. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze the effects of these five variables on height increment of balsam fir regeneration. In the Amqui (early defoliation) plots, height increment was significantly affected by a "cumulative defoliation × height of regeneration × hardwood content" interaction. Defoliation significantly reduced height increment when regeneration was >30 cm tall in softwood and mixedwood plots, but regeneration <30 cm tall in softwood and mixedwood plots and all regeneration in hardwood plots had light defoliation, which did not reduce height increment. Results were even more complex for the North Shore (late defoliation) plots, where there were three significant 3-way interactions affecting height increment: "height × hardwood content × ground vegetation cover", "hardwood content × canopy openness × cumulative defoliation", and "hardwood content × ground vegetation cover × cumulative defoliation". Canopy openness was >25% in all softwood plots, and height increment substantially declined with increasing cumulative defoliation; however, in mixedwood and hardwood plots, canopy openness was <25% and height increment increased with defoliation. In softwood plots, height increment declined sharply with increasing cumulative defoliation at all ground vegetation cover levels, but in mixedwood and hardwood plots, height increment increased or decreased slightly with increasing cumulative defoliation. Results showed that the variables affecting height increment have surprisingly complex interactive effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect defoliation reduces the growth and survival of trees. Evaluating these effects on trees requires understandings of the variation and dynamics of defoliation, which has been limited by the coarseness of analytical scales. This is especially the case for defoliation caused by spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)), the primary forest defoliator in North America. In this study, we developed Bayesian models based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to evaluate patterns of SBW defoliation by predicting individual tree defoliation using stand-level measurements of defoliation that are potentially more efficient to obtain through remote sensing. Additionally, the temporal development of individual tree defoliation was also analysed by the same modelling approach. Data containing over 47 000 observations of individual tree defoliation collected during the last SBW outbreak in the 1970s–1980s from an extensive network of permanent sample plots in Maine, US and New Brunswick, Canada were used in model development. Our results demonstrated that the variation in individual tree defoliation was predominantly dependent on species, while all the other examined tree-, stand- and site-level characteristics had a more limited influence individually or even in combination. Despite significant species-specific differences in magnitude, defoliation of both balsam fir (Abies balsamea L.) and red/black spruce (Picea rubens Sarg. Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) developed towards their respective converged trajectories regardless of differences in initial defoliation, and other examined tree-, stand- and site-level characteristics. These findings were consistent between Maine and New Brunswick despite varying forest management history and species composition. Overall, the results highlight the high variability in SBW defoliation, while the developed modelling framework should be extendable to other regions and other forms of defoliation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detection of spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation is critical for forest protection strategies aimed at minimizing losses in growth and mortality. However current aerial and ground survey methods of detecting defoliation are imprecise and subjective, limiting their usefulness. We evaluated the use of hemispherical crown canopy images to quantify annual spruce budworm defoliation, comparing images taken before and after defoliation in each of two years in 75 sample plots in Québec, Canada. Gradient Boosting Machine analysis identified gap fraction change from May-October, gap fraction after defoliation, insecticide spraying, and % balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) basal area as important explanatory variables of defoliation. Logistic Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Random Forests (RF) models were trained on a random two-thirds of sample plots combining both years, and defoliation predictions were validated on the remaining one-third of plots. RF predictions consistently resulted in slightly higher correlations and lower root mean squared errors (RMSEs) than GLM predictions. Defoliation models including insecticide spraying, gap fraction change May-October, and % balsam fir basal area had RMSEs of 14–22%, whereas models excluding insecticide spraying had higher RMSEs of 18–24%. Model goodness-of-fit using two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests indicated that predicted and measured annual defoliation had similar distributions, with the exception of GLM and RF models excluding spray compared to ocular defoliation. Use of hemispherical images to quantify gap fraction change is a feasible, non-destructive, and objective method to assess canopy foliage changes caused by spruce budworm defoliation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Defoliation by spruce budworm(Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) on balsamfir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) is more severe in fir than in mixed fir-hardwood stands. Previous studies assumed that defoliation in fir-hardwood stands was reduced in proportion to percent hardwood regardless of outbreak severity. We tested the influence of stand composition on defoliation during the first 5 years of a spruce budworm outbreak near Amqui, Quebec, by sampling 27 fir-hardwood plots selected to represent three percent hardwood basal area classes (0%-25%, 40%-65%, and 75%-95%). Balsam fir defoliation was significantly lower (p < 0.001) as hardwood content increased, but the relationship varied with overall defoliation severity each year. Annual plot defoliation in fir-hardwood plots, estimated using: (1) defoliation in pure fir plots and the assumption that defoliation in fir-hardwood plots was reduced in proportion to percent hardwood; (2) a generalized linear mixed-effects model with defoliation in pure fir plots, percent hardwood, and interaction as fixed-effects; and (3) Random Forests prediction incorporating 11 predictor variables, resulted in r = 0.77, 0.87, and 0.92 versus measured defoliation, respectively. Average defoliation severity in softwood plots and percent hardwood content were the most important variables in Random Forests analysis. Data on average defoliation level in softwood stands, as an indicator of overall outbreak severity, improves prediction of balsam fir defoliation in mixed stands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Insect outbreaks are major natural disturbance events that affect communities of forest birds, either directly by affecting the food supply or indirectly by changing the vegetation composition of forest canopies. An examination of correlations between measures of bird and insect abundance across different spatial scales and over varying time lag effects may provide insight into underlying mechanisms. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to assess correlations between counts of eight warbler species from the Breeding Bird Survey in eastern Canada, 1966 to 2009, with the presence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) at immediate local scales and time‐lagged regional scales, as measured by extent of defoliation on host tree species. Budworm‐associated species Cape May warbler (Setophaga tigrina), bay‐breasted warbler (Setophaga castanea), and Tennessee warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina) responded strongly and positively to both local and regional effects. In contrast, non‐budworm‐associated species, Blackburnian warbler (Setophaga fusca), magnolia warbler (Setophaga magnolia), Canada warbler (Cardellina canadensis), black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), and black‐throated green warbler (Setophaga virens), only responded to regional effects in a manner that varied across eastern Canada. The complex responses by forest birds to insect outbreaks involve both increased numerical responses to food supply and to longer term responses to changes in forest structure and composition. These effects can vary across spatial scales and be captured in hierarchical population models, which can serve to disentangle common trends from data when examining drivers of population dynamics like forest management or climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher hardwood content in stands results in lower defoliation of overstory balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) caused by spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.). To determine whether higher overstory hardwood content also reduced defoliation and mortality of balsam fir regeneration of varying height classes during a spruce budworm outbreak, we sampled 36 plots representing three classes of hardwood content (0–25%, 40–65%, and 75–95%) across a gradient of fir-hardwood stands. Twenty-seven plots were sampled in nine stands near Amqui, Quebec in an early stage spruce budworm outbreak (3 years of defoliation), and nine plots were sampled in three stands in the North Shore of Quebec in a later stage budworm outbreak (7 years of defoliation). Linear mixed-effects models with repeated measures (years) were used to analyze differences in defoliation of fir regeneration as a function of hardwood content, six height classes, and three years (2013, 2014, 2015). In the Amqui plots, defoliation of fir regeneration was significantly related to all factors and interaction terms except for hardwood content, while in the North Shore plots, defoliation was significantly related to all factors and the hardwood content x height class and hardwood content x year interaction terms. Defoliation of balsam fir regeneration was 85% higher in softwood than in hardwood stands in 2013 and 2014 in the North Shore plots, when the budworm outbreak was severe. Defoliation was at least 10% higher on regeneration taller than 30 cm than on smaller regeneration in the Amqui plots in 2015 and over 15% higher in the North Shore plots. In general, balsam fir regeneration in softwood stands had higher levels of defoliation than in hardwood stands when defoliation was severe, and regeneration taller than 30 cm had higher defoliation than smaller regeneration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) defoliation begins at the top of the crown, and often results in leader death, loss of annual height growth or gradual top dieback, known as topkill. We used regression tree analysis to examine topkill incidences during a severe SBW outbreak in Nova Scotia, Canada in the 1970s-1980s that resulted in 60-100 per cent mortality of merchantable balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) volume, and re-examined surviving trees for defects 25 years later. At the study outset in 1979, 4-6 years into the SBW outbreak, stand level topkill ranged from 40 to 88 per cent of trees and mean individual-tree topkill probability was 7, 52, 79 and 87 per cent on trees with ≤25, 26-75, 76-90 and 91-100 per cent total defoliation (all age classes of foliage). By 1987, the SBW outbreak had ended and mortality probability of trees was 12, 59, 85 and 98 per cent for classes of peak total defoliation of ≤25, 26-75, 76-90 or 91-100 per cent. Most mortality occurred following 6-8 years of defoliation, but topkill peaked after 4-6 years, indicating that topkill required less cumulative defoliation than death. When the plots were remeasured in 2012, 25 years later, 90 per cent of the surviving trees with documented topkill during the SBW outbreak had stem defects, of which 26 per cent were crooks, 53 per cent forks and 21 per cent sweeps. From 32 to 88 per cent of stem length was located above the point of the defect, resulting in the long-term downgrading of topkill damaged logs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We report on stand development of nine plots in northern New Brunswick, Canada from 1956 to 2012, including a severe spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak from 1951 to 1960 and a SBW outbreak moderated by insecticide protection from 1975 to 1988. Our objectives were to (1) determine how mortality caused by SBW defoliation altered self-thinning competition over the next 50 years; (2) compare stand development of SBW-impacted stands with that of long-term precommercial thinning trials in the same area; and (3) determine whether regeneration data and projected future stand composition supported the Baskerville hypothesis that the SBW–fir ( Abies ) forests of northwestern New Brunswick form a self-regulating cyclical successional system. The SBW outbreak caused 18–80% tree mortality, and this variable impact reduced relative density of host tree populations from a mean of 69% in 1956 to 22–66% by 1965. Stand development and competition-induced mortality over the next 50 years varied as a function of post-outbreak stocking. By 2012 (age 92 years), total softwood volume ranged widely from 150 to 342 m 3 ha −1 . Comparison with long-term published Green River Thinning Trial data indicated that both thinned and unthinned plots had higher volume at younger ages than those ‘thinned’ by SBW, and that lower stand-level production after the SBW outbreak resulted from understocked conditions. Prolific advance balsam fir regeneration was present in the plots in 2012; this and stand dynamics simulations supported the Baskerville self-regulating cyclical successional hypothesis. Results demonstrate how long-term stand development following a SBW outbreak is strongly influenced by outbreak severity and resulting stand structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerial survey records of defoliation by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) in New Brunswick, Canada taken annually from 1965 to 1992, were analyzed at four scales (66 x 66 km, 10 x 10 km, 2 x 2 km, 1 x 1 km) to determine patterns and spatial variability of defoliation. Spruce budworm defoliated 92% of the 7.4 million ha study area in at least one year. Cluster analysis was used to group similar defoliation patterns, and 51% of the variation in the 28-year record was described by 28 representative defoliation patterns, at 1 x 1 km cell size. Individual defoliation patterns were grouped into five spruce budworm outbreak classes (termed A-E), which each covered 12-27% of the area. These differed substantially in defoliation duration and severity: classes A-B had only 1-3 years of moderate-severe defoliation and 42-75% cumulative defoliation; class C had 8 years and 127% cumulative defoliation; and classes D-E had 13-16 years and 170-208% cumulative defoliation. Given the degree of 'averaging out' of high defoliation occurrences that cause the largest impacts, larger 10 x 10 km and 66 x 66 km cells were inappropriate for impact analysis. Defoliation variability was highest at 20-60% mean defoliation than at lower or higher defoliation levels. Distributions of area in each class in 1 x 1 km cells for 66 x 66 km areas throughout the province showed that with the exception of several small coastal areas, four or five of the above outbreak classes occurred in all areas. The wide variation in spruce budworm outbreak patterns is important in making management decisions that differentiate insecticide or salvage treatments based on defoliation severity, and emphasizes the importance of accurate annual aerial survey or remote sensing-based defoliation assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A decision support system (DSS) for improved management decision making and to reduce impacts of forest insect outbreaks was developed and implemented for two defoliators, hemlock looper (Lambdina fiscellaria fiscellaria Guen.) and balsam fir sawfly (Neodiprion abietis Harris), in District 15, a 336,805ha forest managed by Corner Brook Pulp and Paper Ltd. in western Newfoundland, Canada. Over the past 15years, 56% and 12% of the landbase were defoliated by balsam fir sawfly and hemlock looper, which had major effects on forest growth and yield. Relationships between reduced growth and survival and cumulative defoliation were quantified for each insect, to permit calculation of relative impact per forest stand as a function of defoliation, stand age, and species composition. These were integrated into a forest estate model to project effects on timber supply for 25years. Defoliation during 1996–2008 was estimated to reduce total operable softwood growing stock and softwood harvest level by 26% and 31%, respectively, for balsam fir sawfly, and by 2–3% for the smaller-scale hemlock looper outbreaks. Given the long-term influence on forest structure, effects of defoliation on yield were projected to continue for up to 60years after defoliation ceased. Sensitivity analysis using different defoliation scenarios suggested that maximum reductions in harvest levels could be reduced from 40% to 17% by protecting the most susceptible 25% of the landbase using biological insecticides, and minimized further to 9% by re-optimization of harvest schedules to reduce losses. This DSS provides a tool to help forest managers decide when and where to use biological insecticides, and how to use rescheduling of harvest, forest restructuring or planned salvage to reduce future losses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Balsam fir sawfly (Neodiprion abietis (Harris)) has become a serious pest of young managed balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) stands in western Newfoundland, Canada. During 1991–2008, a total area of 561 000 hectares was moderate to severely defoliated. We quantified impacts (growth and survival) using data from permanent sample plots (PSPs) and dendrochronology and related these impacts to defoliation severity determined from aerial defoliation data, in order to provide input into a Decision Support System. We analyzed 67 Newfoundland Forest Service PSPs, selected based on severity of defoliation (classes 1–6), stand age and management interventions (pre-commercially thinned vs natural) and measured before and after defoliation (1996–2008). We used Bayesian statistics to combine information from different sources, each having their own limitations and associated uncertainty. No mortality was observed in immature plots 12 years after defoliation, but survival was 54 per cent lower in mature defoliated than in non-defoliated plots. Plots in defoliation class 1 (1 year of moderate, 30–70 per cent, defoliation) showed 22 per cent cumulative growth reduction and complete recovery to pre-defoliation growth increment after 5 years. Plots in defoliation classes 2–6 (one to three consecutive years of severe, 71–100 per cent, defoliation) had mean cumulative growth reductions of 26–40 per cent and did not recover to pre-defoliation levels even 9 years after defoliation ceased. Natural and thinned plots responded similarly to defoliation severity. These results suggest that proactive control measures need to be implemented since impacts are severe, even with only 1 year of severe defoliation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce budworm (SBW) infestations and defoliation in forests of eastern North America (e.g., 1910s, 1940s, and 1970 -1980s) have had significant negative impacts on growth and survival of spruce and fir. The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBWDSS), originally developed by the Canadian Forest Service, can assist with SBW management planning by estimating the marginal timber supply (in cubic meters per hectare) benefits of protecting stands against budworm defoliation. We applied the SBWDSS to Maine and for two private forests (≈10,000-ha townships) to assess potential spruce-fir losses. Application of the approach across diverse forest types and data sets revealed dramatic differences in potential volume impacts between the two townships. The statewide analysis suggested that over 4 million ha of Maine's forest are vulnerable to the budworm. Projections of moderate and severe intensity outbreaks reduced statewide spruce-fir inventories by 20 -30% over the next 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Hemlock looper (Lambdina fiscellaria fiscellaria (Guen.)) is an economically damaging defoliator that undergoes periodic outbreaks in Newfoundland, Canada. It defoliates and causes extensive tree mortality to its primary host, balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.). We quantified tree survival using data from permanent sample plots (PSPs) and growth reduction or release using dendrochronology, and related these impacts to defoliation severity determined from annual aerial defoliation survey data. Such impact relationships are necessary as a fundamental input to a Decision Support System. Growth and survival of balsam fir, black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) were assessed from 1996 to 2008 in 48 Newfoundland Forest Service PSPs, selected based on four classes of defoliation severity. Two years of severe (71–100%) defoliation resulted in almost complete mortality for balsam fir, 10 years after defoliation, whereas survival was 70–80% for black spruce and white birch. Lower defoliation severity (1–2 years of moderate (31–70%) or 1 year of severe) resulted in approximately 60% survival for balsam fir and no reduction in survival for black spruce and white birch. Maximum growth reduction of balsam fir was 10–15% with 1 year of moderate-severe defoliation, 35–40% with 2 years of moderate defoliation, and about 50% with 2 years of severe defoliation. Growth recovered to pre-defoliation rates 5 years after defoliation ceased in all severity classes. Growth reduction and recovery of black spruce were more variable and lower than for balsam fir, and white birch exhibited only minor (<10%) growth reduction during the defoliation year or 1 year after defoliation. Control measures should focus on avoiding severe defoliation for two consecutive years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Predictions of defoliation are an important component of planning aerial insect control programs, especially for defoliators such as balsam fir sawfly (Neodiprion abietis (Harris)) that cause severe impacts on forest growth and yield. Currently, defoliation prediction is done manually based on field observations and experience, but it is a good candidate for a Bayesian network (BN), a flexible tool for combining available expert knowledge and empirical data. We created a BN model and linked it to a geographic information system to map predicted defoliation for balsam fir sawfly in western Newfoundland over an area of 5.7 million ha from 2001 to 2008. Based on expert knowledge, probabilistic influence of egg counts, previous defoliation, and stand characteristics (species composition, stand age, and management intervention) on subsequent-year defoliation was quantified. For validation purposes, maps created using the BN model were compared with manual defoliation predictions and with measured aerial defoliation survey maps. BN model defoliation prediction maps were found to be in moderate agreement (mean Kappa value of 0.59) with conventional manual prediction maps. Overall, the BN model showed similar accuracy to manual predictions, but with benefits of automating the process and of providing more spatial detail in predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Both hemlock looper (Lambdina fiscellaria fiscellaria (Guen.)) and balsam fir sawfly (Neodiprion abietis (Harris)) undergo periodic outbreaks in eastern Canada and cause significant growth and mortality losses to forests. Tree growth and mortality are closely related to cumulative defoliation estimates, which integrate annual defoliation over multiple years. Our objective was to determine a method to estimate cumulative defoliation of balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill) due to these insects in western Newfoundland, using aerial defoliation survey data, as an essential input to modeling impacts for Decision Support Systems. Interpretation of aerial defoliation survey data for hemlock looper and balsam fir sawfly is problematic because both insects feed upon multiple age classes of foliage. Current-year (2008) aerial defoliation survey data were compared with ground estimates of defoliation by age class from 45 plots (450 trees and 395 mid-crown branch samples), representing a range of defoliation severity classes for each insect. Cumulative defoliation was calculated using defoliation per foliage age class, weighted by relative foliage mass for a given age of foliage. Three significantly different severity classes were defined based on cumulative defoliation values derived from aerial defoliation survey: (i) 1-year moderate (30–70%) defoliation, (ii) 1-year severe (71–100%) defoliation with calculated cumulative defoliation values of 19 and 39%, respectively, for balsam fir sawfly, 21 and 34% respectively for hemlock looper; and (iii) 2–3 years of moderate–severe defoliation, with cumulative defoliation ranging between 59 and 64% for balsam fir sawfly and 49% for hemlock looper. Defoliation severity from aerial defoliation survey alone hence can be misleading if defoliation measurements are not converted to cumulative defoliation values. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) severely defoliates balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and spruce (Picea spp.) in large periodic outbreaks and represents one of Canada’s most damaging and widespread forest insects. We present a modeling framework that integrates stand-level spruce budworm volume impacts used in the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBWDSS) into an industrial-scale timber supply model for the 209 000 ha Black Brook District in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. This approach uses linear optimization of harvest scheduling, salvage, and insecticide application to minimize volume reduction. One hundred and ninety-five scenarios were simulated, including normal and severe spruce budworm outbreaks, beginning in 2002, with combinations of varying insecticide efficacy, timing, and spatial extent of protection. After simulated severe defoliation from 2007 to 2016, maximum harvest reductions of 35% were predicted for a normal outbreak for the 2012–2016 period, and 46% for a severe outbreak for the 2017–2021 period; these impacts were reduced to 25% and 34% using re-optimized harvest scheduling and salvage. Results suggest that combined optimized salvage and harvest rescheduling could reduce future harvest reductions by up to 12%. Spatial optimization of protected areas gave similar results to those obtained using protection priority assignments based on marginal stand-level volume reduction in the SBWDSS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foliage weight (FW) and tree volume, volume increment (VI), and specific volume increment (SVI) were examined throughout a spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak cycle from 1976 to 1984, for young balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.). Treatments were spaced and unspaced, defoliated and protected (annual insecticide spraying to prevent defoliation). Six years into the outbreak, FW in defoliated plots reached its minimum levels, representing a reduction of 83.3 and 84.3% for spaced and unspaced stands, respectively, compared with the protected stand. For surviving trees, FW recovery was rapid and substantial (threefold to fivefold over 3 years), due to the release of suppressed buds. Still, at the end of the outbreak, FW was reduced by 37.5 and 68.5% for spaced and unspaced stands, respectively. VI was reduced by 92.5 and 91.1% and SVI by 92.0 and 89.3% for spaced and unspaced stands, respectively, compared with the protected stand. This severe budworm outbreak reduced growth rates by about the same level, regardless of initial differences in growth rates and density. By the end of the outbreak, volume was reduced by 32.6 and 54.1 m3/ha for spaced and unspaced stands, respectively, or a decrease of 51.7 and 35.7% compared with the protected stand. Relationships between VI and FW were, in general, linear for spaced trees and a mixture of linear and non-linear for unspaced trees. On an individual-tree basis, VI: FW relationships were strong at the beginning and end of the spruce budworm outbreak, but weaker in the middle. Combining all years, on a per hectare basis, the relationships between VI and FW were strong (r2=0.78 for spaced and 0.80 for unspaced stands), and still held despite defoliation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

During spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks, defoliation causes severe tree damage and mortality to spruce-balsam fir (Picea spp. - Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) forests. Annual defoliation thematic maps provide vital information for forest protection planning against outbreaks, but such data are challenging to accurately collect over large areas during a short (2–3 week) period when damaged foliage peaks. Current operational methods for estimating annual defoliation are aerial surveys, through visual observations by professionals from small aircraft, defining broad defoliation classes which are subjective and spatially can be inaccurate. Remote sensing studies estimating annual defoliation are limited due to lack of ground verification data and difficulty of capturing spectral changes specific to the short detection period. Only one study has used satellite hyperspectral imagery to detect annual SBW defoliation, classifying just two classes of defoliation and using inaccurate aerial survey results for training and validation. In this paper, we introduce a new method to estimate annual SBW defoliation in three classes (light ≤ 30%, moderate 30–70%, and severe ≥ 70%), using change detection of vegetation indices (VIs) derived from satellite (EO-1 Hyperion) hyperspectral imagery acquired before and after annual defoliation. Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers were used to classify defoliation, and intensive field measurements of branch-level defoliation per plot were used for accuracy assessment. Field plots, with spatially correlated defoliation within stands, were used to derive an additional 624 plots to obtain sufficient and independent datasets for training and validating the detection results. The top four VIs for detecting annual defoliation, based on Random Forest Total Variable Importance Score and Spearman's rank correlations, were Plant Senescence Reflectance Index, Normalized Difference Water Index, Moisture Stress Index, and Enhanced Vegetation Index. The spectral regions of VIs used to classify defoliation included visible, near-infrared, red-edge, and shortwave infrared. Accuracies of the light, moderate, and severe defoliation classes using our method ranged from 55–85%, 40–76%, and 40–80%, respectively, which were significantly higher than the 32% accuracy of aerial survey defoliation data for the plots. • Spruce budworm defoliation was detected using hyperspectral (EO-1 Hyperion) data. • Classified defoliation was validated with accurate branch defoliation measurements. • Multiple vegetation indices were selected using Random Forest variable importance. • Results were similar using Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers. • Defoliation detection with hyperspectral data was superior to aerial surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spruce budworm defoliation of balsam fir is less severe in stands with hardwoods. • Lower defoliation could be from habitat fragmentation or natural enemy hypotheses. • Second-instar larval dispersal loss increased with increasing hardwood content. • Thus results supported the habitat fragmentation hypothesis for less defoliation. • Parasitism of spruce budworm was not significantly influenced by stand type. Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) has been shown to be less severe in stands with higher hardwood (broadleaved trees) content during both building and declining phases of budworm outbreaks. Reduced defoliation associated with forest composition could be explained by habitat fragmentation and/or natural enemy hypotheses, which posit higher early-instar larval dispersal loss or more intense parasitism in hardwood-softwood mixed stands than in pure balsam fir stands, respectively. We carried out field studies in 27 hardwood, mixedwood, and softwood plots with varied balsam fir-hardwood composition to assess effects of forest composition on: 1) first- and second-instar larval dispersal loss, and 2) stage-specific spruce budworm density and parasitism rates. Results indicated that increasing hardwood content increased second-instar (L2) dispersal losses. Stand type significantly affected dispersal loss of L2 larvae, both measured directly for three years and sampled on balsam fir seedlings. Post-hoc pair-wise comparisons indicated that L2 dispersal loss was less in softwood than in mixedwood or hardwood stand types based on measurements on ground traps and less in softwood and mixedwood than in hardwood stands based on sampling budworm larvae on regeneration. This suggested that high early-instar larval dispersal loss is a plausible explanation for the decreased spruce budworm density and balsam fir defoliation associated with increasing hardwood content. Stand type did not significantly affect parasitism rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks on 2.8 million ha of Crown land in New Brunswick, Canada and compared an early intervention strategy (EIS) with foliage protection approaches. We coupled the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of EIS and foliage protection on 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of susceptible Crown (publicly owned) forest, under moderate and severe SBW outbreak scenarios. Cumulative available harvest supply from 2017 to 2067 was projected to be reduced by 29 to 43 million m3, depending upon SBW outbreak severity, and a successful EIS approach would prevent this loss. These harvest reductions were projected to reduce total economic output by $25 billion (CAD) to $35 billion. Scenarios using biological insecticide foliage protection over 20% of susceptible Crown forest area were projected to reduce losses to 6–17 million m3 and $0.5–4.1 billion. Depending upon SBW outbreak severity, EIS was projected to have benefit/cost ratios of 3.8 to 6.4 and net present values of $186 million to $353 million, both higher than foliage protection strategies. Sensitivity analysis scenarios of 'what if' EIS partially works (80% or 90%) showed that these produced superior timber harvest savings than the best foliage protection scenario under severe SBW outbreak conditions and generally superior results under moderate outbreak scenarios. Overall, results support the continued use of EIS as the preferred strategy on economic grounds to protect against SBW outbreaks on Crown land in New Brunswick. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.; SBW) outbreaks are one of the dominant natural disturbances in North America, having killed balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and spruce (Picea sp.) trees over tens of millions of hectares. Responses to past SBW outbreaks have included the aerial application of insecticides to limit defoliation and keep trees alive, salvage harvesting of dead and dying trees, or doing nothing and accepting the resulting timber losses. We tested a new 'early intervention strategy' (EIS) focused on suppressing rising SBW populations before major defoliation occurs, from 2014 to 2018 in New Brunswick, Canada. The EIS approach included: (1) intensive monitoring of overwintering SBW to detect 'hot spots' of low but rising populations; (2) targeted insecticide treatment to prevent spread; and (3) proactive public communications and engagement on project activities and results. This is the first attempt of area-wide (all areas within the jurisdiction of the province of New Brunswick) management of a native forest insect population. The project was conducted by a consortium of government, forest industry, researchers, and other partners. We developed a treatment priority and blocking model to optimize planning and efficacy of EIS SBW insecticide treatment programs. Following 5 years of over 420,000 ha of EIS treatments of low but increasing SBW populations, second instar larvae (L2) SBW levels across northern New Brunswick were found to be considerably lower than populations in adjacent Québec. Treatments increased from 4500 ha in 2014, to 56,600 ha in 2016, and to 199,000 ha in 2018. SBW populations in blocks treated with Bacillus thuringiensis or tebufenozide insecticide were consistently reduced, and generally did not require treatment in the subsequent year. Areas requiring treatment increased up to 2018, but SBW L2 populations showed over 90% reductions in that year. Although this may be a temporary annual decline in SBW population increases, it is counter to continued increases in Québec. Following 5 years of tests, the EIS appears to be effective in reducing the SBW outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the spatial-temporal patterns of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.); SBW) defoliation within 57 plots over 5 years during the current SBW outbreak in Québec. Although spatial-temporal variability of SBW defoliation has been studied at several scales, the spatial dependence between individual defoliated trees within a plot has not been quantified, and effects of defoliation level of neighboring trees have not been addressed. We used spatial autocorrelation analyses to determine patterns of defoliation of trees (clustered, dispersed, or random) for plots and for individual trees. From 28% to 47% of plots had significantly clustered defoliation during the 5 years. Plots with clustered defoliation generally had higher mean defoliation per plot and higher deviation of defoliation. At the individual-tree-level, we determined 'hot spot trees' (highly defoliated trees surrounded by other highly defoliated trees) and 'cold spot trees' (lightly defoliated trees surrounded by other lightly defoliated trees) within each plot using local Getis-Ord Gi* analysis. Results revealed that 11 to 27 plots had hot spot trees and 27% to 64% of them had mean defoliation <25%, while plots with 75% to 100% defoliation had either cold spot trees or non-significant spots, which suggested that whether defoliation was high or low enough to be a hot or cold spot depended on the defoliation level of the entire plot. We fitted individual-tree balsam fir defoliation regression models as a function of plot and surrounding tree characteristics (using search radii of 3–5 m). The best model contained plot average balsam fir defoliation and subject tree basal area, and these two variables explained 80% of the variance, which was 2% to 5% higher than the variability explained by the neighboring tree defoliation, over the 3–5 m search radii tested. We concluded that plot-level defoliation and basal area were adequate for modeling individual tree defoliation, and although clustering of defoliation was evident, larger plots were needed to determine the optimum neighborhood radius for predicting defoliation on an individual. Spatial autocorrelation analysis can serve as an objective way to quantify such ecological patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce budworm (SBW) is the most destructive forest pest in eastern forests of North America. Mapping annual current-year SBW defoliation is challenging because of the large landscape scale of infestations, high temporal/spatial variability, and the short period of time when detection is possible. We used Landsat-5 and Landsat-MSS data to develop a method to detect and map SBW defoliation, which can be used as ancillary or alternative information for aerial sketch maps (ASMs). Results indicated that Landsat-5 data were capable of detecting and classifying SBW defoliation into three levels comparable to ASMs. For SBW defoliation classification, a combination of three vegetation indices, including normalized difference moisture index (NDMI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were found to provide the highest accuracy (non-defoliated: 77%, light defoliation: 60%, moderate defoliation: 52%, and severe defoliation: 77%) compared to using only NDMI (non-defoliated: 76%, light defoliation: 40%, moderate defoliation: 43%, and severe defoliation: 67%). Detection of historical SBW defoliation was possible using Landsat-MSS NDVI data, and the produced maps were used to complement coarse-resolution aerial sketch maps of the past outbreak. The method developed for Landsat-5 data can be used for current SBW outbreak mapping in North America using Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery. Overall, the work highlights the potential of moderate resolution optical remote sensing data to detect and classify fine-scale patterns in tree defoliation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a climate change context, the sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests is key for achieving emission targets. It is thus critical to understand how large-scale disturbances are affecting the overall forest C stocks. C dynamics in North American boreal forest ecosystems are strongly affected by the defoliation and mortality that occurs during a spruce budworm (SBW) outbreak. We used forest inventory geospatial databases, monthly climate data, spatially explicit defoliation sequence data, and the TRIPLEX-Insect model to simulate C dynamics with and without SBW disturbances in stands with different vulnerability to the SBW in the boreal forest of Quebec. Our results showed that SBW defoliation and related mortality decreased the average aboveground biomass and belowground biomass by 5.96% and 6.94% by 2017, respectively. At the same time, 21,046 km2 of forest were converted from a C sink to a source. This study provides the first quantitative analysis of the effect of a SBW outbreak on carbon dynamics for three different boreal stand types (that is, fir, spruce, and mixed fir-spruce) at a regional scale. Our results suggested that younger fir forests lost less C than either fir-spruce or spruce forests during SBW attacks between 2007 and 2017 in Quebec. This highlights the importance of considering species composition when assessing vulnerability or resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]